Thursday, February 13, 2014
2/13/14 Love The One Your With...
Emerging /Markets/ Love The One You're With
BRIC funds are starting to look like abandoned brick warehouses in Detroit! Trashed, gutted, and left to transient day traders.
US indexes, on the other hand, continue to show resilience.
If you own positions in emerging markets, it's time to embrace them. I plan on scaling into Brazil (EWZ), China (FXI), Chile (ECH) and Indonesia (IDX) over the next few weeks. The best trades will typically stall before they take off. Bay Area real estate stalled between '93 to '97, then soared 2-3x in as many years with the dot.com boom. It stalled again in the early 2000s, leading 'smart' players to sell 'at the top-' just before rocketing again through 2008. Corrected through 2010, only to hit new highs in 2012. Emerging markets will perform likewise, and could easily return 2-3x over the next 3-5 years. As always, JMHO.
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Baltic Dry Index (BDI) +9 1106
ReplyDeleteThe time to buy them is when no-one wants them and they are down and out. EM fits that description well. Getting the timing right is hard, but if you get a double or triple, doesn't really matter if your timing is off a lot.
ReplyDeleteWas just looking through the Toronto Stock Exchange stats and the Global Gold ETF (XGD.TO) is up 28% YTD.
ReplyDeleteBut last summer it looked like it was bottoming too and had a higher low and higher high, then proceded to drop by almost 2/3's.
Tough to know what happens now. Luckily, as Warren Buffet says, we don't have to swing at all of the pitches.
GDXJ - Jessee sure nailed that one, didn't he? I can't figure out why it's moved, myself.
ReplyDeleteJesse seems to look for really beat up sectors and buy them before they turn, but it is hard to know when they are really completely flushed out. He's been talking up gold for quite a while now. I wonder if he's up overall on his gold purchases.
DeleteI laughed when I got Jesse's last missive. Big Dave had us in a couple jr's two weeks before Jesse saw it including the GDXJ.
DeleteYou have to watch the moving averages.
Jesse is up big on GDXJ if he got in where I think he did. Me too.
I sent 2nd an email with NG as the first pick. I don't know if he got in.
DeleteAs usual, gold, like all commodities, is a rough ride.
I'm up 24% on NG.
Going by those rules then you would've entered URZ back in November, not 3 days ago?.
DeleteNo, it has to have a transition (the MA's cross up) then a pullback and resumption of the new trend. So our initial entry was 12/27, not three days ago. So we took partial profits at the pt and I re-entered on the last pullback/resumption on 2/7.
DeleteOkay, I thought you had suggested looking at it just a few days ago, I don't recall you saying anything around Dec 27th. So maybe you had some shares to sell me....
DeleteI haven't posted here for a long time. I read every once in awhile.
DeleteUranium is in an uptrend.
Just to add...
DeleteI don't post here to sell shares of anything. Whatever I trade is liquid enough that I don't need to hustle friends.
I don't recall the date I posted about uranium but I think it was in response to a post about one of the uranium stocks and I mentioned URZ which I had just bought more of on the pullback. I won't be selling those until they reach the new profit target and I doubt I will be posting that.
Will be interesting to see how FLWS does today. IT's up to $5.50 now, but I'd guess we get outperfomance on V-day.
ReplyDeleteThat one does look like it's ready to move up and out of the congestion, could be the obligatory pre-move shake out here.
DeleteMarket is closed Monday, President's day.
ReplyDeleteNRG - Oh come on, as if the opening of the solar plant was a surprise.... Sheesh!
ReplyDeleteThe reason I'm interested in this one is b/c of their investment in solar silicon production technology. I don't like the massive footprint solar has though, absent human error (sometimes by choice) nuclear is a better technology IMO.
DeleteProbably coal wins the battle and ocean acidification concerns are sidelined, just take Asian fishing practices as an indicator of how unsustainable practices in culture are persistent.
Kinda looking slow here.
ReplyDeleteI'm feeling slow. Had a 102 fever last night but you're right it's passing fairly quick. Looks like commodities are the name of the game this year. Dry bulkers should be beneficiaries of this I would think
DeleteGood. The only problem I have with the commodities play is EVERYONE is now talking about it now.
DeleteIsn't everyone negative on EM's and Brazil in particular? BSBR seems to have reached a bottom but I plan to wait for a surprise leg down just in case.
DeleteMaybe someone can send 2nd an email on this one too?
Unless BDI resumes moving back down, I guess BALT could be testing $6.80 here soon after a brief shakeout to $6.30 or $6.18, not sure which. I hope to add more, of course, like I should've at $5.25 instead of freaking out instead.
DeleteRegarding the junior miners I believe Jesse was bullish on them last summer
ReplyDeleteYes, that's true, and it didn't work out if I recall.
DeleteCommodities are definitely having a good 2014. Part of it is because they got sold off so hard last year, so they were pushed too low. The real question is whether we get sustainable strength in commodity prices going forward.
ReplyDeleteRegarding Uranium, the chart on CCO.TO looks really good to me (without the currency influence on CCJ). In their latest earnings, they talk about 2014 being weak still, but 2015 being a good year. Their P/E for 2014 will be over 20, so not cheap, but you have to be ahead of the curve buying commodity stocks, so maybe it is time. I personally think we get some better chances still in 2014.
But I am trailing the market so far this year, so am not the best to put an opinion on 2014 so far. Sounds like CC probably has the best handle on things YTD.
The weekly chart for the Canadian venture exchange is looking beautiful now:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$CDNX
A clear double bottom and a clear breakout above the highest point between the two bottoms. This bodes well for PNPFF, which by itself is having a nice breakout today, terminating its clear downtrend. Now the long-term chart looks like it has bottomed out and formed a nice cup at the bottom.
One thing that was spoiling the "risk on" feeling for me was the lagging of silver behind gold over the past 2 months. In fact, silver seemed to be range-bound since late November. Not anymore -- it broke out above the upper bound today.
PNPFF hit my sell limit at $0.42 today for the 6500 shares I purchased at $0.32 a couple of weeks ago. My next higher purchase was 10K shares at $0.36, and I have just placed sell limit orders for 5K shares at $0.46 and 5K at $0.50. I have also placed a buy limit order for 7500 shares at $0.37, in case PNPFF decides to come back down and retest the previous high. Let's see in which order these limits get hit. :)
Aks still looks very good
ReplyDeletePKX had a good day too, KB responded positively.
DeleteSolid day for aci today
ReplyDeleteGGB tested $6.80 too, doesn't seem to be many sellers, just a few flippers.
DeleteThis is from Steve rodley of global maritime which owns 70 or so ships:
ReplyDelete“As the world comes out of financial depression, we’re witnessing increasing commodity flow and so enhanced demand for freight capacity. Couple this with the low charter rate environment of the past three years leading to a significant drop in the number of new vessels arriving on the water and a big increase in older vessels being scrapped, and the potential financial returns from owning and operating a new fleet become obvious,” says Steve Rodley, co-founder and principal of GMI.
Cool, hopefully these guys aren't just talking their book.
DeleteOGEN - How about this company, I've been looking for this one for many years.
ReplyDeleteATACX rotated into Emerging Markets at the close. Now I can sleep.
ReplyDeleteI also scaled into a little EEM @ 39.73, and a little PBR @ 11.50.
DeleteSo I didn't bottom tick the move, at least partly due to trading fatigue the past two weeks. That's OK. Every missed opportunity, every loss, every gain> all part of the game. No one gets it right all the time.
DeleteIt's not so easy, being on the right side.
Delete"04:45PM Paulson holds SPDR Gold Trust, sells Alpha Natural at MarketWatch"
A lot of traders say if you buy within 10% of the bottom you are among the very best.
DeleteSaw a report this week which showed if you bought the best stock each day, you would turn $10k into over $2 billion in a year, so for sure we are all leaving a lot of money on the table
GPL - Wow, +17%
ReplyDeleteSCCO - Interesting this one has lifted so rapidly, I really did think copper was rather high already. I hear aluminum use in electric motor windings has increased, due to high copper prices.
ReplyDeleteSilver - Brandt has a couple of charts to share.
FLWS - There seems to have been an marked increase in volume lately, I think BB could be onto something. Sorta looks like Thur/Fri were the knockout and the back test of trend line support is nearly complete.
ReplyDeleteSpotlight on coal?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22129560.400-fire-in-the-hole-after-fracking-comes-coal.html?full=true
South American farmers are holding out for increased gains:
ReplyDeletehttp://farmfutures.com/blogs-south-americans-hold-off-bean-sales-8164
TWGP ?
ReplyDeleteZNGA - Is it possible someone wants to hold this one under $5?
ReplyDeleteJOUT ?
ReplyDeleteMust foreign banks buy $US's to park capital in US?
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/foreign-banks-bracing-tough-u-130639891.html
And, will US banks be forced to reciprocate by buying foreign currencies?
DeleteCan someone come up with contact info for Blogger? I need to resolve the 'new post' problem.
ReplyDeleteLooks like typical Google Support where you can't actually talk to anyone.
DeleteYou could try looking here: https://support.google.com/blogger/search?q=cant+create+a+new+post
Adding Google Chrome as a browser worked.
DeleteNew post.