A contrarian among contrarians is not one who takes the other side of a contrarian's trade. Rather, it's timing the same trade a beat ahead or behind a contrarian. That may be the 'mojo' I'm looking for.
Fukushima - Wow, the site still looks like it's a sick frickin' mess and not getting better, hope I'm wrong.... I just don't see how they can possibly control this quantity of ground water...
"Each and every day, about 100,000 gallons of fresh groundwater seeps into the basements of the plant, where it becomes contaminated with a witch’s brew of radionuclide. TEPCO is furiously trying to keep pace with the water. They finish a new quarter-million-gallon holding tank here about every other day."
Interesting article. I completely agree with it. I think this translates over to the business world too. Business owners that were previously hurt badly by a downturn are going to be much more cautious going forward, which in cyclical industries I think ends up extending a rebound phase longer than it would have otherwise been. If you think about the psychology of this it makes sense. There will be less willingness to bulk up inventories and get more aggressive. This leads to a much more rational business environment, albeit more skittish as well. At the first hint of over exuberance I think owners pare back rapidly in fear of another downturn.
Eventually new business owners will come into the space that weren't around during the previous downturn and they end up making the same mistakes as the prior owners but I think that cycle takes longer after a horrible downturn like in 07-09.
I listened to the BALT call again and the one thing that struck me as reinforcing this concept was their comments about dividends. They said they had the ability to pay out a $0.09 dividend but they didn't want to get into the game of paying out wildly volatile dividends like they had in the past...they wanted it to be a smoother payout cycle. I know we talked before about how the shipping industry would be more conservative going forward in fear of going through another downturn like the one they just endured. I think BALT's payout ratio is a perfect example of this. Going forward, I think this is extremely bullish for this sector because I think there will be a period of years where demand growth exceeds supply growth and supports much higher spot rates.
And in terms of investing it's really all about psychology. If investors are more confident that things will be improving going forward, they will be more willing to pay up for stocks even at the same level of earnings. Look at stocks like SUNE. When things were trending down and they were earning the same $$ they are now, the stock was about a fraction of the price it is now. But now that the downturn ended and a new upturn has taken hold people are willing to pay far more for those earnings than previously.
The large speculators are as bullish as have been going back almost 2 years, and the commercials are as bearish as they have been. The picture looks even worse for silver:
While I am at it, I just placed a sell stop limit order for all my remaining AUMN at $1.02/$1.00. I have no idea why this dog has more than doubled over the past two months -- their latest annual report still shows that they have no clue of how they might be able to restart production at Velardena.
Thanks, Jesse, for the great letter tonight! The charts I liked the most are ELON, SCON, ONVO. I think ELON is ready for a super spike up. Possibly next week, maybe Monday morning. So I placed a buy stop limit order for a small position at $3.07/$3.10. On Monday, I will buy some 1-year calls on ONVO. If SCON goes above $2.90 on Monday -- it's a BUY.
In order to raise more cash for these great looking charts, I decided to place sell stop orders just below the current price for my SLV and GLD calls. If GLD/SLV charts do not gap up on Monday and instead continue their descent, then I say that the rally is over. During the shakeout process, at least half of the gains since Dec 2013 will probably be surrendered. I'll consider re-entering this space once the bullishness of the large spec futures players approaches the lowest levels found in the charts I posted above (those observed in July and December of last year).
I don't think Confucius is confused. He understands homo sapiens and has watched this cycle unfold 1000x. He bought gold in '03, US banks in '09. I thought I saw him pick up THD during the riots/ECH when Cu tanked. Probably loaded up on European real estate 'when the blitzkrieg raged and the bodies stank.'
Lots of other places, flight simulators, military drones, game controllers, basically anywhere you might need to detect motion, perhaps even seismic sensors?
I bot some SWHC (Smith and Wesson) on Friday at $11.61, just looking for a trade off the 200 day. It will be interesting to see how it trades given the current events. Stop just below the most recent low of $11.31.
David, I actually liked the setup for a long call option trade on GLD ONLY IF it started trading up within the next few days. I'm not so crazy about it now since tomorrow will probably be a little volatile. That is one gap loving chart. I restrict my speculative option trading to less than 10% of the portfolio and usually a LOT less. I do like selling covered calls and cash secured puts but this GLD would have been a long spec play for me.
Good article on why people still hate the market and why it continues higher. I don't buy his momentum stocks approach, but I think his thoughts on why the rally continues are dead on:
RE: BALT - one thought came to me before: with asset prices higher and secondhand ships being in favor, why wouldn't someone make a move to buy out BALT given they have a fleet that is only like 4 years old on average?
especially in light of the fact that they have their ships already contracted out with sound companies like Cargill and that they are trading at less than book?
Yeah I went in with the conclusion that the upside is too great to trade it. I made good gains in a few stocks last year but missed out in much greater gains because I traded it too much. It should have no bearing on any future stocks that we hold but something changed in 2012/13 in terms of holding periods.
The GLD and SLV did gap up this morning, so I decided to tighten the stops on my call options: moved up the stop on $20 strike SLV calls to break even, and on $120 GLD calls (which I purchased at $10.85 when GLD was at $121) to $15.85.
Also, opened a starter position in ELON this morning at $2.99.
I think when this Ukraine nonsense passes we will move up a good deals. The data today was quite positive especially when you consider just how cold it was in the majority of the country. It seems like the economy continues to grow and I really think China and India are only going to continue to grow and provide a tailwind for global trade.
Think about the impact that 1 billion people migrating from extreme poverty to lower/middle class will have on the worldwide economy. That trend should continue to benefit global trade of goods like grains, iron ore, etc.
yeah my only concern with companies like those is that the input costs are always extremely volatile. OINK's chart is a thing of beauty though.
speaking of thing of beauty, take a bigger picture look at the F chart. is the pullback since October not just a normal pullback after a retest of 10 year highs? I see positive divergences on the weekly chart since then. if Europe improves i'd have to imagine that F will benefit significantly since its been such a huge drag on earnings for them.
Europe is improving, it may be somewhat tentative on Germany though, unfortunately. F definitely has wheels, I'd love to have another shot at it around $9!!!!!! :)
JCP only up 60% in the past month. It's getting volatile! If it can recoup $9 and hold then the 20 year chart shows a false breakdown from a double bottom. My best guess without knowing the fundamentals is we see a year or two of sideways trading after it bottoms at whatever it bottoms at...maybe $2?
I'm thinking of buying stock in a company called Avangard - AVGR in London, down over 15% today.
They are a Ukraine based egg producer - the largest in Eurasia and, because they are majority owned and people are worried about the Ukraine, trade at a P/E of less than 3. They are very well run with high margins and are looking for ways to value-add their products (eg. powdered eggs). I'm fairly certain that none of their major assets are in the area the Russians are in, but one of their big barns is fairly close.
It's a pain because it trades in London, but let's say things calm down and people are willing to give it half the multiple of US Egg producer, CALM, then the stock would be a triple from here.
I really don't think we see a war here or Russia moving aggressively into the rest of Ukraine, but it is definitely quite risky.
I can only find one other 5 year period where returns were greater than the past 5 years since 1952: 1999. The market went on to gain another 20% but it preceded a big crash. We're coming up on the 5 year anniversary of the lows. I do wonder if we have gone too far too fast.
DATE and GPRC are two China stocks I've owned in the past. Both still look solid. I like DATE a lot longer term b/c of demographic tailwinds etc. They also pay a nice dividend that should grow over time.
TOF, Ryan Detrick has a good rebuttal to the 5-year return thing - http://schaefferstradingfloor.com/dont-believe-everything-you-hear/id=7868
"The key takeaway here is we can make the data say whatever we want most of the time. Take a step back and do some further research before concluding anything."
It's funny I saw that right after I posted about this. I looked back to 1900 and there's only been 4 times where the 5 year return was 170%: 1928/9, 1937/8, 1987, and 1999. Who knows what happens but not great company to be in.
This company is starting to intrigue me: RFIL. Here's a look at the 10 year financials: http://www.gurufocus.com/financials/RFIL
While numbers are volatile, they are trending upward. They have a great balance sheet, pay a nice dividend, and have a good valuation (around 11 times free cash flow, trailing). It's in high tech that I'm not really familiar with but the recent pullback makes this a much lower risk entry. I kind of like it a lot and plan on researching it some more.
momentum traders. one concern i have is the CEO cashed out of nearly all of his shares around $7 or so before the spike. He's in his 70's so maybe it was part of estate planning??? who knows...
I got stopped out of EPAM today. This will be one to watch when the Ukraine situation get's resolved.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/us-ukraine-software-idUSBREA221T320140303 The first paragraph (Reuters) - Eastern and Central Europe's top information technology services firm, EPAM Systems (EPAM.N), warned on Monday of mounting and unquantifiable risks to its operations in Ukraine and Russia, sending the U.S.-listed company's shares down 14 percent.
That's an interesting position to have in your portfolio, I've never heard of it myself. "EPAM employs around 2,600 engineers in Ukraine and another 1,300 in Russian cities, out of a global workforce of 9,3000. The company posted revenue growth of 28 percent in 2013 to $555.1 million earlier this month."
The stops on my GLD/SLV calls have been hit. Made a few hundred bucks on them. Given the large long futures speculative positions that were revealed in the latest COT report, I prefer to exit this rally for now and wait for the spec traders to become less bullish. Placed a sell limit at $1.13 for all my AUMN. Sold 9K shares of PNPFF at $0.48 (bought them at $0.40). Placed a sell limit order at $0.49 for 10K more shares of PNPFF (bought them at $0.65, but what the heck!).
Recycled part of the profits into a starter position in SCON at $2.96. My yesterday's entry into ELON at $2.99 is already doing well. :)
STV has about 80 million customers using their smart cards for digital cable. They're basically the Scientific Atlanta of China (SA was purchased by CSCO for $6 Billion about 9 years ago) with about $1.60 in cash, no debt, and making about $0.60 EPS annually. They received an investment from Intel in 2011 to help develop a smart TV / high def set top box product. I think they will expand into video on demand and cloud services and could eventually be perceived as a Netflix like company. Right now the company trades at a valuation of $2 per customer. I think this is one of those potential 10+ baggers. Doesn't say it will happen but at the current valuation the downside is relatively manageable.
AGCO - This is the insider who keeps buying, although I don't understand why her share count hasn't increased, something about this is odd, the share ownership is being transferred?
probably short term traders cashing in for a small win. they think they are smart because they made some fast money, but don't realize how much they are leaving on the table.
In order for the stocks to get above book, investors have to believe that future profits and ROE's will be above current levels, so really we need to see higher shipping rates. It seems like the pieces are all still falling into place - improving economy and better demand, high scrapage, low new builds, not too much money chasing. And if BDI rates double like we were talking about earlier, that would likely be a good catalyst.
Yes very true. The reason I have preferred BALT is after their new ships come on board and they are done with drydocking them they will be profitable at current rates. That's something not many in the industry can say. And they have much better upside than the others. Although if rates rise rapidly and EGLE/GNK can defer debt payments then they would be the big winners. I have no idea where rates go but I haven't seen a single analyst call for rates of 2,000 or above for 2014 or 2015, on average. In light of the long term chart for rates and with India just in the early stages of a massive growth phase, I don't know how an analyst can be sure of that prediction.
So Putin backs off and we have a relief rally! EEM is spiking into the close, currently up +2% @ 39.5x. Personally, I think it’s a short squeeze, and the ‘Bear’ is simply sleeping off yesterday’s meal. Thus selling the spike!
(a) RSX off @ 23.69 for a +4% gain. (b) EEM off @ 39.54 for a +1.9% gain. (c) EWZ off @ 40.68 for a +2% gain. (d) PBR off @ 11.13 for a minor gain. (e) RYWVX will be taken off at the close for an estimated +4% gain.
I went ‘all in’ on the Russian ‘invasion,’ which should make up for most (if not all) of my sins year-to-date.
There is one more reason to like STV -- it is a Chinese stock, and the Shanghai Composite looks ready for a major lift off from the descending wedge + triple bottom it made at 1900 since December 2012:
CP, scrapage has been up for a few years. It is slowing now that shipping rates are starting to rise, but a lot of older ships are non fuel competitive with the newer ones, so will need high rates to keep them out of the scrap heap.
CP, regarding EPAM, in December I switched from using Morningstar to IBD. I don't remember if is was an IBD article or one of their IBD top 50 but that's where I found it.
ONVO - I'm sorry but this just seems like it's unlikely to happen for decades, I'd be amazed. I'm not saying the stock can't run, just that the technology seems unlikely to turn a profit aside from perhaps research grant funding.
More likely though than discovering a cost effective way to manufacture hydrogen, although solar->hydrogen is probably the best way to store the energy if you could do it without experiencing too much loss and notice even that's not happening, the solar energy is being stored in batteries, LOL. This isn't a large figure in gigawats, BTW. And, Most batteries are crap in terms of lifetime, even when the charging cycle is properly managed.
I'm actually getting some errands done today. I have a cracked windshield on my MDX. Acura says they will only charge me $1200 for cheap glass and $1800 for gucci Acura glass. I called a local wholesaler and they said they replace glass for several car dealerships around town. They will charge $160 total to install the cheap stuff and $200 for the gucci which has a TEEENY bit of film in it to reduce sound. What am I missing here?
Make sure to get the tinted band at the top (sun shade), usually an ~$25 option on replacement windshields. The glass guy can fix you up, some have built in antennas, so let him know if yours has that. Also, some are tinted yellow/goldish as opposed to blue, (I have a goldish-painted chevy like this) so beware of that gotcha. PPG windshields seem to have better optical clarity, I'm sure your glass guy won't install junk though.
I have a cheapo windshield (brand unknown to me) in my old Buick and although it's arguably not quite as distortion free in the unused lowest quadrants as the original, it's perfectly acceptable to me.
And yeah, don't take it to the dealer for this, just make sure the guy has the correct info about what you need so he can bring the right one. Those guys change 3 or 4 windshields per day, they do good work.
HELI - "CHC Group Ltd. provides commercial helicopter services to the offshore oil and gas industry worldwide. The company operates through two operating segments, Helicopter Services and Heli-One."
Look at the volume going through STV. Something is up. I think this could rocket higher. They need to get some momentum behind their cloud/on demand/streaming services. If they do then the 4-5X multiple and only 2X cash will turn into 20X and 10X cash.
Sorry to say, I don't know that guy Stewart. Smells a little suspicious to me though, some thoughts:
Based on a super capacitor that can crank a diesel engine for 3 seconds. They seem to be making the case of cold-starts but, I would think maybe hot starts could be the advantage in terms of shutdown at traffic lights and unloading/loading stops potentially for fuel savings. Maybe this causes higher emissions though (b/c the cat converter cools off and stops working), so possibly the truth can't be told lest admission of being a gross polluter?
900CCA isn't really all that impressive either, more like a minimum amount required to get things rolling. 900CCA is impressive for a supercapacitor in the same size package as a lead-acid battery,
Typically, I won't buy a vehicle battery less than 900CCA for my gasoline vehicles (exception is physical size). I'm pretty sure a stone cold diesel will need more than a 3 second crank at -40*F, what happens if it doesn't fire in just 3 secs, no second chance call the tow wrecker for a jump start? I doubt it. As a backup hot start, yes, might be worth considering.
BP - Getting back to the automation theme. The two we looked at last year have done really well: ORBC SWIR
Here's a good article on the automation theme and ways to play it. I think it's a great area to be looking at for the longer term: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1967441-the-internet-of-things-your-next-big-investment-opportunity-in-technology?source=yahoo
Now we know why the 1 year charter rates on Capesize ships were over 2X the spot rates as of last week. Capesize rates are up 50% in that time. Shit at this rate they could be 30,000 by April. I suspect the Baltic Dry Index will take a breather around the 1,500 area for a little while only because that was the support level last fall. I think the catalyst that really jacks up rates comes from China (and India to a lesser extent) putting the growth gears into motion. Inflation in both countries is much lower than it was in the past handful of years so they will have room to reinvigorate growth.
I remember looking into this one last spring and passing just before it doubled in a month. I think the reason I passed was they have a huge amt of convertible debt, if memory serves me right.
Man this PRMW just keeps chugging higher. I see their water in a lot of big box stores around here...then again, I have 1 lowes and 3 home depots within a 5 mile radius and I think I visited each one looking for a new grill.
TOF- This is your basic entry level model. http://www.vikingrange.com/consumer/product/products/outdoor/cooking/outdoor-grills-and-smokers/300-series-grills/36--300-series-grill---vgbq
Freaking unbelievable.. Pretty much at the SPX low for 2014 I tossed in about $60K evenly across ANR/BSBR/MCP/AHP. Sold ANR flat and am flat on the other 3. On ENPH I got 40% and BALT I'm at 31%. That's crazy.
I intend on keeping BSBR for a good while and I'm willing to add. I don't really believe Brazil will be a growth monster though, I expect that will most likely be India and Indonesia.
A little syncopation, bro.
ReplyDeleteJust started the first episode of 'Crossing Lines' on NFLX. Awesome. William Fichtner? Steals every scene he's in.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Congrats... huge, HUGE ,⬆⬆⬆⬆, day for you buddy!!
ReplyDeleteI saw him down at the pub. He's teetering at the edge of coherent speech.
DeleteHoly shit we have arrow icons now on TT? I could barely make them out through the beer goggles
DeleteFukushima - Wow, the site still looks like it's a sick frickin' mess and not getting better, hope I'm wrong.... I just don't see how they can possibly control this quantity of ground water...
ReplyDelete"Each and every day, about 100,000 gallons of fresh groundwater seeps into the basements of the plant, where it becomes contaminated with a witch’s brew of radionuclide. TEPCO is furiously trying to keep pace with the water. They finish a new quarter-million-gallon holding tank here about every other day."
DUST - Check this one out, could be ready for some action.
ReplyDeleteI expect 2nd will appreciate this article:
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/2059963-natural-gas-trading-and-mental-accounting?source=yahoo
Interesting article. I completely agree with it. I think this translates over to the business world too. Business owners that were previously hurt badly by a downturn are going to be much more cautious going forward, which in cyclical industries I think ends up extending a rebound phase longer than it would have otherwise been. If you think about the psychology of this it makes sense. There will be less willingness to bulk up inventories and get more aggressive. This leads to a much more rational business environment, albeit more skittish as well. At the first hint of over exuberance I think owners pare back rapidly in fear of another downturn.
DeleteEventually new business owners will come into the space that weren't around during the previous downturn and they end up making the same mistakes as the prior owners but I think that cycle takes longer after a horrible downturn like in 07-09.
I listened to the BALT call again and the one thing that struck me as reinforcing this concept was their comments about dividends. They said they had the ability to pay out a $0.09 dividend but they didn't want to get into the game of paying out wildly volatile dividends like they had in the past...they wanted it to be a smoother payout cycle. I know we talked before about how the shipping industry would be more conservative going forward in fear of going through another downturn like the one they just endured. I think BALT's payout ratio is a perfect example of this. Going forward, I think this is extremely bullish for this sector because I think there will be a period of years where demand growth exceeds supply growth and supports much higher spot rates.
And in terms of investing it's really all about psychology. If investors are more confident that things will be improving going forward, they will be more willing to pay up for stocks even at the same level of earnings. Look at stocks like SUNE. When things were trending down and they were earning the same $$ they are now, the stock was about a fraction of the price it is now. But now that the downturn ended and a new upturn has taken hold people are willing to pay far more for those earnings than previously.
KWK - "129,000 net acres located in the Horn River Basin of Northeast British Columbia"
ReplyDeleteSupposedly, Horn River Basin is one of the richer gas deposits on the North American continent.
Good writeup on FTD in Barrons this weekend and they mention FLWS as a major competitor - could bode well for a bounce on Monday in FLWS.
ReplyDeleteStrangely, NWLI up almost 10% in the last 7 trading days. No news, but I'll take it.
ReplyDeleteLooks like someone wanted in prior to Monday's earnings, never blink!
Deletewtf...have you guys seen WYNN and LVS?
DeleteHoly crap, NS and WTF!, I thought we'd assigned 2nd_ave the task of watching those for us? :)
DeleteAn elephant in the ointment for gold:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=GC*0&style=technical&template=&p=DN&d=X&sd=&ed=&size=M&log=0&t=BAR&v=0&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&x=44&y=11&indicators=COTLC(13369344%2C26112%2C153)%3BCOTDLC(13369344%2C26112%2C153%2C16750848)&chartindicator_1_code=COTLC&chartindicator_1_param_0=13369344&chartindicator_1_param_1=26112&chartindicator_1_param_2=153&chartindicator_2_code=COTDLC&chartindicator_2_param_0=13369344&chartindicator_2_param_1=26112&chartindicator_2_param_2=153&chartindicator_2_param_3=16750848&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate&sh=150=#jump
The large speculators are as bullish as have been going back almost 2 years, and the commercials are as bearish as they have been. The picture looks even worse for silver:
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=SI*0&style=technical&template=&p=DN&d=X&sd=&ed=&size=M&log=0&t=BAR&v=0&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&x=44&y=11&indicators=COTLC(13369344%2C26112%2C153)%3BCOTDLC(13369344%2C26112%2C153%2C16750848)&chartindicator_1_code=COTLC&chartindicator_1_param_0=13369344&chartindicator_1_param_1=26112&chartindicator_1_param_2=153&chartindicator_2_code=COTDLC&chartindicator_2_param_0=13369344&chartindicator_2_param_1=26112&chartindicator_2_param_2=153&chartindicator_2_param_3=16750848&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate&sh=150=#jump
If we have a down day for gold/silver on Monday, then I'm selling my GLD/SLV calls.
While I am at it, I just placed a sell stop limit order for all my remaining AUMN at $1.02/$1.00. I have no idea why this dog has more than doubled over the past two months -- their latest annual report still shows that they have no clue of how they might be able to restart production at Velardena.
DeleteThanks, Jesse, for the great letter tonight! The charts I liked the most are ELON, SCON, ONVO. I think ELON is ready for a super spike up. Possibly next week, maybe Monday morning. So I placed a buy stop limit order for a small position at $3.07/$3.10. On Monday, I will buy some 1-year calls on ONVO. If SCON goes above $2.90 on Monday -- it's a BUY.
ReplyDeleteIn order to raise more cash for these great looking charts, I decided to place sell stop orders just below the current price for my SLV and GLD calls. If GLD/SLV charts do not gap up on Monday and instead continue their descent, then I say that the rally is over. During the shakeout process, at least half of the gains since Dec 2013 will probably be surrendered. I'll consider re-entering this space once the bullishness of the large spec futures players approaches the lowest levels found in the charts I posted above (those observed in July and December of last year).
DeleteI don't think Confucius is confused. He understands homo sapiens and has watched this cycle unfold 1000x. He bought gold in '03, US banks in '09. I thought I saw him pick up THD during the riots/ECH when Cu tanked. Probably loaded up on European real estate 'when the blitzkrieg raged and the bodies stank.'
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LI8WGX3afDs
Might be time to put some money into Ukraine if you think it woks out OK there.
DeleteConfucius gets down with Jagger. 'What's puzzling us is the nature of this game. Mos' def.'
ReplyDeleteXVX? OT is recommending this. I can't find it.
ReplyDeleteXVX.TO is Toronto, don't know who/what OT is.
DeleteThanks.
DeleteINVN - I didn't know this one was an AAPL and Samsung supplier.....
ReplyDeleteIsn't that all they do?
DeleteWell, they make micro gyros, but I didn't realize they were an AAPL vendor.
DeleteRight, it's all the motion stuff in phones. Where else might it be??? Maybe tablets?
DeleteLots of other places, flight simulators, military drones, game controllers, basically anywhere you might need to detect motion, perhaps even seismic sensors?
DeleteI bot some SWHC (Smith and Wesson) on Friday at $11.61, just looking for a trade off the 200 day. It will be interesting to see how it trades given the current events. Stop just below the most recent low of $11.31.
ReplyDeleteDavid, I actually liked the setup for a long call option trade on GLD ONLY IF it started trading up within the next few days. I'm not so crazy about it now since tomorrow will probably be a little volatile. That is one gap loving chart. I restrict my speculative option trading to less than 10% of the portfolio and usually a LOT less. I do like selling covered calls and cash secured puts but this GLD would have been a long spec play for me.
Good article on why people still hate the market and why it continues higher. I don't buy his momentum stocks approach, but I think his thoughts on why the rally continues are dead on:
ReplyDeletehttp://joefahmy.com/2014/02/28/people-still-hate-stock-market/
David, looks like you are getting a nice bounce in gold this morning on Ukraine, so good chance to sell if you still are looking to do this.
ReplyDeleteAll things considered pretty quite out there.
ReplyDeleteBALT - That's some damn strong action, IMO
ReplyDeleteArms shipments?
DeleteA return to profitability, I suppose.
Deleteha arms shipments. i'm sure the shipping strength won't last
DeleteATACX rotated out of emerging markets last Friday:
ReplyDeleteRSX @ 22.69. EEM @ 38.79. RYWVX @ the 1030 window. PBR @ 11.06.
DeleteEWZ @ 39.85.
DeleteWe can't build them here, but Vietnam was just cleared by President Obama to purchase nuclear fuel from the U.S.?
ReplyDeleteWe also can't burn coal, but we can export it.
DeletePLUG - What kind of fuel is behind this unrelenting move and where does it come from?
ReplyDeleteall i know is i know a guy that bought a 5% stake in the company when it was trading at $0.50. F'n a.
DeleteRE: BALT - one thought came to me before: with asset prices higher and secondhand ships being in favor, why wouldn't someone make a move to buy out BALT given they have a fleet that is only like 4 years old on average?
ReplyDeleteespecially in light of the fact that they have their ships already contracted out with sound companies like Cargill and that they are trading at less than book?
DeleteI've noticed every time I buy into a pullback, BALT always surprises me on the upside and I sell too soon.
DeleteYeah I went in with the conclusion that the upside is too great to trade it. I made good gains in a few stocks last year but missed out in much greater gains because I traded it too much. It should have no bearing on any future stocks that we hold but something changed in 2012/13 in terms of holding periods.
DeleteThe GLD and SLV did gap up this morning, so I decided to tighten the stops on my call options: moved up the stop on $20 strike SLV calls to break even, and on $120 GLD calls (which I purchased at $10.85 when GLD was at $121) to $15.85.
ReplyDeleteAlso, opened a starter position in ELON this morning at $2.99.
Along the lines of Brent's article, here is another one about the short interest on S&P surging, which in the past has matched up with local bottoms:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exchange/short-interest-on-the-s-p-500-surges-to-a-new-high-182007031.html
I think when this Ukraine nonsense passes we will move up a good deals. The data today was quite positive especially when you consider just how cold it was in the majority of the country. It seems like the economy continues to grow and I really think China and India are only going to continue to grow and provide a tailwind for global trade.
DeleteThink about the impact that 1 billion people migrating from extreme poverty to lower/middle class will have on the worldwide economy. That trend should continue to benefit global trade of goods like grains, iron ore, etc.
DeleteI'm using 1 billion with the assumption that less than 1/2 of India + China will benefit with the remainder staying in extreme poverty.
DeleteThink about what that would mean for corporate hog farms like OINK! Asians love chicken too, CALM is rocketing today..
Deleteyeah my only concern with companies like those is that the input costs are always extremely volatile. OINK's chart is a thing of beauty though.
Deletespeaking of thing of beauty, take a bigger picture look at the F chart. is the pullback since October not just a normal pullback after a retest of 10 year highs? I see positive divergences on the weekly chart since then. if Europe improves i'd have to imagine that F will benefit significantly since its been such a huge drag on earnings for them.
Europe is improving, it may be somewhat tentative on Germany though, unfortunately.
DeleteF definitely has wheels, I'd love to have another shot at it around $9!!!!!! :)
Baltic Dry Index climbs to 1,276 , up 18
ReplyDeleteLadybugs...
ReplyDeleteBLDP - Now up 18%, PLUG's fuel cell vendor.
ReplyDeleteJeezus I almost bought that thing at $1.60 a few months ago.
DeleteIt won't stop snowing, this is becoming aggravating. At least it's not a heavy wet snow that sticks to the trees and brings them crashing down.
ReplyDeleteXGTI - This one's taking off?
ReplyDeleteJCP only up 60% in the past month. It's getting volatile! If it can recoup $9 and hold then the 20 year chart shows a false breakdown from a double bottom. My best guess without knowing the fundamentals is we see a year or two of sideways trading after it bottoms at whatever it bottoms at...maybe $2?
ReplyDeletei think TAN looks like a decent short.
ReplyDeleteTGIBM! First day of week and I'm already sick of the BS.
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking of buying stock in a company called Avangard - AVGR in London, down over 15% today.
ReplyDeleteThey are a Ukraine based egg producer - the largest in Eurasia and, because they are majority owned and people are worried about the Ukraine, trade at a P/E of less than 3. They are very well run with high margins and are looking for ways to value-add their products (eg. powdered eggs). I'm fairly certain that none of their major assets are in the area the Russians are in, but one of their big barns is fairly close.
It's a pain because it trades in London, but let's say things calm down and people are willing to give it half the multiple of US Egg producer, CALM, then the stock would be a triple from here.
I really don't think we see a war here or Russia moving aggressively into the rest of Ukraine, but it is definitely quite risky.
Wonder how long it takes for this disturbance to work it's way through the economy?
DeleteGRMN - Too expensive?
ReplyDeleteI can only find one other 5 year period where returns were greater than the past 5 years since 1952: 1999. The market went on to gain another 20% but it preceded a big crash. We're coming up on the 5 year anniversary of the lows. I do wonder if we have gone too far too fast.
ReplyDeleteAGCO - More insider buying.
ReplyDeleteWow. EEM sold off all the way back to last Wednesday's lows.
ReplyDeleteDATE and GPRC are two China stocks I've owned in the past. Both still look solid. I like DATE a lot longer term b/c of demographic tailwinds etc. They also pay a nice dividend that should grow over time.
ReplyDeleteAGCO - More insider buying.
ReplyDeleteDUST - Would've done well buying the open.
ReplyDeleteTOF, Ryan Detrick has a good rebuttal to the 5-year return thing - http://schaefferstradingfloor.com/dont-believe-everything-you-hear/id=7868
ReplyDelete"The key takeaway here is we can make the data say whatever we want most of the time. Take a step back and do some further research before concluding anything."
It's funny I saw that right after I posted about this. I looked back to 1900 and there's only been 4 times where the 5 year return was 170%: 1928/9, 1937/8, 1987, and 1999. Who knows what happens but not great company to be in.
DeleteHPJ/CBAK/KNDI - Tailwind for electric vehicles in China, seems like?
ReplyDeleteThis company is starting to intrigue me: RFIL. Here's a look at the 10 year financials:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.gurufocus.com/financials/RFIL
While numbers are volatile, they are trending upward. They have a great balance sheet, pay a nice dividend, and have a good valuation (around 11 times free cash flow, trailing). It's in high tech that I'm not really familiar with but the recent pullback makes this a much lower risk entry. I kind of like it a lot and plan on researching it some more.
Like the chart. What caused the spike?
Deletemomentum traders. one concern i have is the CEO cashed out of nearly all of his shares around $7 or so before the spike. He's in his 70's so maybe it was part of estate planning??? who knows...
Deleteactually most of them were options so probably not as big of an issue
DeleteApparently they make interface cables, including RF interface cables.
DeleteBarring a market meltdown, looks like $8.3 is the next target for BALT
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't mind if we revisited support first.
DeleteI got stopped out of EPAM today. This will be one to watch when the Ukraine situation get's resolved.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/us-ukraine-software-idUSBREA221T320140303
The first paragraph
(Reuters) - Eastern and Central Europe's top information technology services firm, EPAM Systems (EPAM.N), warned on Monday of mounting and unquantifiable risks to its operations in Ukraine and Russia, sending the U.S.-listed company's shares down 14 percent.
That's an interesting position to have in your portfolio, I've never heard of it myself.
Delete"EPAM employs around 2,600 engineers in Ukraine and another 1,300 in Russian cities, out of a global workforce of 9,3000. The company posted revenue growth of 28 percent in 2013 to $555.1 million earlier this month."
Looks like maybe EPAM's president of EU operations knew something was up just over a month ago, he exited about $3m of his position.
DeleteThere's no crying in trading:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5zqurl2xH24
I forgot one other China stock that I'm very bullish on: STV
ReplyDeleteWonder if recent events in Ukraine might spotlight Cuba as a hot topic of discussion?
ReplyDeleteBAH - This one's been on a decent run...
ReplyDeleteBaltic Dry Index (BDI) +49 1325
ReplyDeleteNo pullback opportunities, I suppose.
EPAM - Think fast, that was your entry. Funny thing is, the move is usually done by the time we learn about the reason.
ReplyDeleteFCEL - This one now, as well...
ReplyDeleteWLL - Not bad, eh? Doesn't look like WTI's going back to $45 anytime soon.
ReplyDeleteI'm beginning to warm up to Putin, if that's possible.
ReplyDeleteThe stops on my GLD/SLV calls have been hit. Made a few hundred bucks on them. Given the large long futures speculative positions that were revealed in the latest COT report, I prefer to exit this rally for now and wait for the spec traders to become less bullish. Placed a sell limit at $1.13 for all my AUMN. Sold 9K shares of PNPFF at $0.48 (bought them at $0.40). Placed a sell limit order at $0.49 for 10K more shares of PNPFF (bought them at $0.65, but what the heck!).
ReplyDeleteRecycled part of the profits into a starter position in SCON at $2.96. My yesterday's entry into ELON at $2.99 is already doing well. :)
David - buy some STV and hold for 2 years. You won't be disappointed.
DeleteSTV has about 80 million customers using their smart cards for digital cable. They're basically the Scientific Atlanta of China (SA was purchased by CSCO for $6 Billion about 9 years ago) with about $1.60 in cash, no debt, and making about $0.60 EPS annually. They received an investment from Intel in 2011 to help develop a smart TV / high def set top box product. I think they will expand into video on demand and cloud services and could eventually be perceived as a Netflix like company. Right now the company trades at a valuation of $2 per customer. I think this is one of those potential 10+ baggers. Doesn't say it will happen but at the current valuation the downside is relatively manageable.
DeleteAGCO - This is the insider who keeps buying, although I don't understand why her share count hasn't increased, something about this is odd, the share ownership is being transferred?
ReplyDeletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mallika_Srinivasan
DeleteSome big 30k to 50k sells going through BALT all day. Nice, I like it. They'll be buying back at $8.
ReplyDeleteprobably short term traders cashing in for a small win. they think they are smart because they made some fast money, but don't realize how much they are leaving on the table.
DeleteThe top 5 stocks in the sector are still trading at under 1X book. I posted it a week or so ago but they peaked at 4.8 in 2007.
DeleteBy comparison, solars are at 5.4 now.
I'm still hoping for a pullback, feels like it's slipping away so it probably happens.
DeleteIn order for the stocks to get above book, investors have to believe that future profits and ROE's will be above current levels, so really we need to see higher shipping rates. It seems like the pieces are all still falling into place - improving economy and better demand, high scrapage, low new builds, not too much money chasing. And if BDI rates double like we were talking about earlier, that would likely be a good catalyst.
DeleteYes very true. The reason I have preferred BALT is after their new ships come on board and they are done with drydocking them they will be profitable at current rates. That's something not many in the industry can say. And they have much better upside than the others. Although if rates rise rapidly and EGLE/GNK can defer debt payments then they would be the big winners. I have no idea where rates go but I haven't seen a single analyst call for rates of 2,000 or above for 2014 or 2015, on average. In light of the long term chart for rates and with India just in the early stages of a massive growth phase, I don't know how an analyst can be sure of that prediction.
DeleteInteresting that scrapage is up given Turkish demand for scrap has been off. Turkish scrap demand must be resuming.
DeleteOINK - Broke out to the upside, must be about time for a seeking Alpha, Alfred Little, and Citroen series drama....
ReplyDeleteAdded more SCON at 2.84...
ReplyDeleteTOF, the STV chart does give me the feeling that the bottom might be behind. Opened a starter position at 3.07...
ReplyDeletePlacing a buy limit order for more STV at $2.75
DeleteMan oh man. How many people got caught leaning the wrong way yesterday...
ReplyDeleteSo Putin backs off and we have a relief rally! EEM is spiking into the close, currently up +2% @ 39.5x. Personally, I think it’s a short squeeze, and the ‘Bear’ is simply sleeping off yesterday’s meal. Thus selling the spike!
ReplyDelete(a) RSX off @ 23.69 for a +4% gain.
(b) EEM off @ 39.54 for a +1.9% gain.
(c) EWZ off @ 40.68 for a +2% gain.
(d) PBR off @ 11.13 for a minor gain.
(e) RYWVX will be taken off at the close for an estimated +4% gain.
I went ‘all in’ on the Russian ‘invasion,’ which should make up for most (if not all) of my sins year-to-date.
Putin backed off?
DeleteSWHC - Upbeat
ReplyDelete$496B US defense budget.
ReplyDeleteBaltic Dry Index average so far in Q1 is 1,313 which is 65% higher than Q1 2013
ReplyDeleteFB - Their new drone is solar powered and can stay aloft 5 years straight.
ReplyDeleteIndonesia - "Rising incomes spur demand"
ReplyDeleteWait a minute, weren't we just reminded last month Indonesia is in the dumper?
All in!
ReplyDeletehttp://huvrtech.com/
Holy shit is that for real?
DeleteNo! :)
DeleteThere is one more reason to like STV -- it is a Chinese stock, and the Shanghai Composite looks ready for a major lift off from the descending wedge + triple bottom it made at 1900 since December 2012:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS#symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;
What are some other good Chinese stocks that you guys are aware of?
I think I'll just buy HAO tomorrow -- will rely on its built-in diversification. :)
DeleteMark - did you sell ENPH? Looks awesome.
ReplyDeleteCP, scrapage has been up for a few years. It is slowing now that shipping rates are starting to rise, but a lot of older ships are non fuel competitive with the newer ones, so will need high rates to keep them out of the scrap heap.
ReplyDeleteYes, that coincides with my understanding. I do expect Turkish demand will resume once issues there begin resolving.
DeleteBaltic Dry Index (BDI) +66 1391
ReplyDeleteKWK - Sold some Colorado Assets
ReplyDeleteBALT - Can I complain about this one ripping higher instead of allowing me to load the boat in the low $6's?
ReplyDeleteENPH- I only have about 10% of the original position left.
ReplyDeleteCP, regarding EPAM, in December I switched from using Morningstar to IBD. I don't remember if is was an IBD article or one of their IBD top 50 but that's where I found it.
ReplyDeleteSWHC- Nice Port.
DeleteYeah, better lucky than good I say.
DeleteYep, keep posting ur ideas please, can't have too many!
DeleteJust heard "Jail Break Brewery" starts production this week, never heard of it before.
EBIO. It's a new issue reestablishing the uptrend.
DeleteONVO - I'm sorry but this just seems like it's unlikely to happen for decades, I'd be amazed. I'm not saying the stock can't run, just that the technology seems unlikely to turn a profit aside from perhaps research grant funding.
ReplyDeleteMore likely though than discovering a cost effective way to manufacture hydrogen, although solar->hydrogen is probably the best way to store the energy if you could do it without experiencing too much loss and notice even that's not happening, the solar energy is being stored in batteries, LOL. This isn't a large figure in gigawats, BTW. And, Most batteries are crap in terms of lifetime, even when the charging cycle is properly managed.
SPLK - This one is supposedly an NSA big data contractor. Funny how we learn these things just as the PE approaches 3000000000.....
ReplyDeleteI think Stephen Stewart recommended it a while ago. I passed because it was too expensive. ha.
DeleteKWK - Knockout play in progress?
ReplyDeleteI'm actually getting some errands done today. I have a cracked windshield on my MDX. Acura says they will only charge me $1200 for cheap glass and $1800 for gucci Acura glass. I called a local wholesaler and they said they replace glass for several car dealerships around town. They will charge $160 total to install the cheap stuff and $200 for the gucci which has a TEEENY bit of film in it to reduce sound. What am I missing here?
ReplyDeleteAbout $1000 to $1600 if you go with the dealer....?
DeleteMake sure to get the tinted band at the top (sun shade), usually an ~$25 option on replacement windshields. The glass guy can fix you up, some have built in antennas, so let him know if yours has that. Also, some are tinted yellow/goldish as opposed to blue, (I have a goldish-painted chevy like this) so beware of that gotcha. PPG windshields seem to have better optical clarity, I'm sure your glass guy won't install junk though.
DeleteI have a cheapo windshield (brand unknown to me) in my old Buick and although it's arguably not quite as distortion free in the unused lowest quadrants as the original, it's perfectly acceptable to me.
And yeah, don't take it to the dealer for this, just make sure the guy has the correct info about what you need so he can bring the right one. Those guys change 3 or 4 windshields per day, they do good work.
DeleteLove this:
ReplyDeletehttp://biggercapital.squarespace.com/biggercapital-investment/2010/7/16/a-thousandfold-return-on-investment.html
Fun to see. That's the Warren Buffet approach - buy a great company at a good valuation and hold forever. MCD was quite a growth stock back then!
DeleteHELI - "CHC Group Ltd. provides commercial helicopter services to the offshore oil and gas industry worldwide. The company operates through two operating segments, Helicopter Services and Heli-One."
ReplyDeleteLook at the volume going through STV. Something is up. I think this could rocket higher. They need to get some momentum behind their cloud/on demand/streaming services. If they do then the 4-5X multiple and only 2X cash will turn into 20X and 10X cash.
ReplyDeleteI'm watching.
DeleteOpened a starter position in HAO at $26.30
ReplyDeleteURG - This one has had a strong bid all day, seems like.
ReplyDelete$8.3 seems like a fairly logical target for BALT. A 50% pullback would bring that to right around prior highs of $6.7ish.
ReplyDeletePretty strong resistance here but cheap coal should help, I guess.
DeleteBMY - On it's way to $100+?
ReplyDeleteFLWS - Hasn't come back off, might be about to run?
ReplyDeleteHOLI - If human beings are being replaced with automation, shouldn't we be long automation?
ReplyDeleteROK makes this stuff too, NATI makes a lot of the small parts and controllers as well.
DeleteHOLI financials are pretty impressive.
DeleteStewart is showing mxwl as buy today. It's only up 46% or so
ReplyDeleteSorry to say, I don't know that guy Stewart. Smells a little suspicious to me though, some thoughts:
DeleteBased on a super capacitor that can crank a diesel engine for 3 seconds. They seem to be making the case of cold-starts but, I would think maybe hot starts could be the advantage in terms of shutdown at traffic lights and unloading/loading stops potentially for fuel savings. Maybe this causes higher emissions though (b/c the cat converter cools off and stops working), so possibly the truth can't be told lest admission of being a gross polluter?
900CCA isn't really all that impressive either, more like a minimum amount required to get things rolling. 900CCA is impressive for a supercapacitor in the same size package as a lead-acid battery,
Typically, I won't buy a vehicle battery less than 900CCA for my gasoline vehicles (exception is physical size). I'm pretty sure a stone cold diesel will need more than a 3 second crank at -40*F, what happens if it doesn't fire in just 3 secs, no second chance call the tow wrecker for a jump start? I doubt it. As a backup hot start, yes, might be worth considering.
SYNC rising nicely into earnings today. Could this finally be the one?
ReplyDeleteRadioshack - Increased bonuses for a job well done, LOL....
ReplyDeleteBP - Getting back to the automation theme. The two we looked at last year have done really well:
ReplyDeleteORBC
SWIR
Here's a good article on the automation theme and ways to play it. I think it's a great area to be looking at for the longer term:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1967441-the-internet-of-things-your-next-big-investment-opportunity-in-technology?source=yahoo
Cool, while sitting here vegetating, I almost missed the SWIR breakout! I'm kinda thinking in terms of factory automation for mass production.
DeleteIn respect to SWIR specifically, I think these guys plan to become involved in auto accident prevention technology, this could be quite good, IMO..
Oh yeah that's a huge spot to be in.
DeleteNow we know why the 1 year charter rates on Capesize ships were over 2X the spot rates as of last week. Capesize rates are up 50% in that time. Shit at this rate they could be 30,000 by April. I suspect the Baltic Dry Index will take a breather around the 1,500 area for a little while only because that was the support level last fall. I think the catalyst that really jacks up rates comes from China (and India to a lesser extent) putting the growth gears into motion. Inflation in both countries is much lower than it was in the past handful of years so they will have room to reinvigorate growth.
ReplyDeletecheck this chart out for some perspective:
Deletehttp://3.bp.blogspot.com/-uD2w3kpo6Fc/UGJwyIcEsQI/AAAAAAAAADA/6iRwp1bAS9g/s1600/ShippingRates.jpg
Panamax and Capesize are not even 1/10th the rates from 2007/8.
I guess this means I should consider loading up into any weakness.
DeleteThat's pretty crazy when you look at it.
DeleteSpeaking of India, that's who's been buying AGCO stock, TAFE farm tractor company.
ReplyDeleteALSK - What do you do when junk appears destined to climb?
ReplyDeleteI remember looking into this one last spring and passing just before it doubled in a month. I think the reason I passed was they have a huge amt of convertible debt, if memory serves me right.
DeleteFLWS - Looks kinda like someone's been accumulating at $5.40
ReplyDeleteMan this PRMW just keeps chugging higher. I see their water in a lot of big box stores around here...then again, I have 1 lowes and 3 home depots within a 5 mile radius and I think I visited each one looking for a new grill.
ReplyDeleteWell defined channel.
DeleteGoogle + Auction.com
ReplyDeleteHOV - Got nailed today, but SRS did nothing. Fake move?
ReplyDeleteXOM said F'it today, "We're not going to keep spending money developing wells unless we can get ROI"
ReplyDeleteANR news today, record fine levied.
ReplyDeleteBitcoin, dying to cash it in.
ReplyDeleteTOF- This is your basic entry level model. http://www.vikingrange.com/consumer/product/products/outdoor/cooking/outdoor-grills-and-smokers/300-series-grills/36--300-series-grill---vgbq
ReplyDeleteFreaking unbelievable.. Pretty much at the SPX low for 2014 I tossed in about $60K evenly across ANR/BSBR/MCP/AHP. Sold ANR flat and am flat on the other 3. On ENPH I got 40% and BALT I'm at 31%. That's crazy.
ReplyDeleteEven more amazing is, ANR didn't rally 40% the instant you sold it. I still only have BALT/NLY/BSBR
DeleteHIG - Trading at $36
ReplyDeleteBaltic Dry Index (BDI) +89 1480
ReplyDeleteThere's your dip cp
DeleteHee-haw! :) Not exactly a dip though it's higher!
Deletehey it was down 6% from the morning highs.
DeleteCP- I still have ARR of course.
ReplyDeleteI'm up $1.79 in BSBR.
ReplyDeleteI intend on keeping BSBR for a good while and I'm willing to add. I don't really believe Brazil will be a growth monster though, I expect that will most likely be India and Indonesia.
DeleteOINK - +11% today!
Not a single story has covered the fact that the Sensex broke out to all time highs today. Not one.
ReplyDeleteHSC - ????
ReplyDeleteQIWI - Heading to $10?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.tradewindsnews.com/drycargo/333590/capes-turn-the-cornerore positive shipping news:
ReplyDeleteHouse votes to block EPA regs on coal-fired electricity plants "This bill won't make it through senate"
ReplyDeleteHopefully spring comes soon, I'm running out of firewood to burn and will be forced to switch to dirty electric power.
DeleteI tried shorting TAN at $50.5..."
ReplyDeleteShares of this security are currently not available to short sell.
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