Part one of a three part series in 100 year old basement remodeling. First step is to demo all existing mechanical systems as they wont work in a finished space. New high efficiency, direct vent hot water heater and furnace will need to be installed. All exposed wiring, plumbing, and ducting will have to be re-run in concealed walls and joist bays.
Next, framing and water proofing...
Wow...are those posts attached to the beams? I bet it will be a nice space when you're done.
ReplyDeleteYeah, there are 4 posts. I considered taking them out, but it really wasn't worth the expense to me. It's 20'x30', and the bottom of those girders are about 6'8" off the floor so even I don't have to duck under them.
DeleteThe Man Cave!
ReplyDeleteWater heater or Hot water heater? - So if the water's already hot there's no need to heat it? :)
I guess it's gas operated, nice! Wish I had gas and if I did I'd probably go for the heat-on-demand type?
I have roof moss! No, I'm not referring to my hair, how does one stop moss from growing on the roof shingles?
Baking Soda. I buy it by the huge bag at Costco. Just get up there and broadcast it all over. It needs wet weather. Changes the pH to too alkaline for moss. Those Z strips work pretty good too (leach zinc onto roof) but they can be a pain to install unless you are a good roofer.
DeleteOkay, upsetting the ph balance makes sense. Growing moss: "Conduct a soil test to determine the pH of this soil; mosses prefer a pH around 5.5 (somewhat acidic). If your soil’s pH is higher you can lower it with the addition of skimmed milk powder, powdered sulfur, or rhododendron fertilizer according to soil test results. Be sure to lightly water in any powdered amendments.
DeleteMeanwhile I might try some lime b/c I already have a ton.
TOF - Who makes these container chassis for over the road trucks? "Lowe’s Assures Chassis Availability With Dedicated Fleet"
ReplyDeletenot sure man. haven't had a chance to look
DeleteYou were following a trailer manufacturer, maybe they make the chassis too? Maybe it was "Wayne"? I'll do some dd and see what I can find, but it's probably already run up, explaining why the subject is being injected into our poisoned news diet.
Delete"US training exercise in Poland under planning stages." It's unclear to me if the scary moment is over, I have to think the market keeps moving up.
wow dude that's quite a mess you got on your hands. sounds like fun though.
ReplyDeletemessy day in a lot of sectors today. harsh reversals in a few shippers. that article you posted BB is interesting and enlightening in many ways. just a month ago most analysts were saying they expected moderate increases in the baltic dry index into the spring. well fast forward a month and the index is up 36% and capesizes are up 150%. now analysts expect capesize rates to go to the 30k level soon possibly by next week. this reinforces 2 things for me: (1) people don't know shit about the future and (2) we most likely get a pause here for a little while. i still think there's a shot we get a big move up later in the spring/summer to 3,000+ but WTF do i know!?! again, the thing i like about BALT is they are PROFITABLE at current rates after those new ships are on board. i don't know of any other shipper that can say the same.
"(1) people don't know shit about the future and (2) we most likely get a pause here for a little while"
Delete(3) People love to talk shit about something they have no idea about, b/c they can.
yep my #2 (which is in direct contradiction to my #1) is only because the people in said #3 used their incredibly intelligent minds to just extrapolate out a near term move to a little further out in the near term in justifying why rates go higher. if there's anything i've learned its that sentiment alone dictates moves much more than anything else.
DeleteDid u guys catch that? He thinks I have an incredibly intelligent mind. Who cares if I Kant spell?
DeleteI happen to agree you have an incredibly intelligent mind, it never fails when talking heads begin operating their traps we're probably entering a reversal (@$7.94), cannot identify conflict in any of the above.
DeleteHere comes Rosie the robot, but the Japanese have fallen in love with the idea and yet it never has caught on: "GOOG: Google execs foresee omnipresent robots, huge mobile ad sales"
ReplyDeleteIf you follow inverted head and shoulders patterns then it looks like BALT hit its target today:
ReplyDelete$6.6 - $5.2 = $1.4
$1.4 + $6.6 = $8
High of the day was $7.94.
I don't really believe in those patterns though. Barring a market melt down, I think we see $8.30 at some point here soon and possibly as high as $9.50
Yes, but the ih&s is just an obligation. The move CAN go much further.
DeleteI forgot that I had an open order to buy 3 ONVO January 2015 $7 calls at $4.00, and that order was triggered today. So now I have a small stake in that game as well. :)
ReplyDeleteThe recent move in BALT was indeed impressive. I decided to put up for sale my 5 September $5 calls at $3, which I purchased at $2 a few weeks ago. If sold, will wait for a pull back to re-enter...
ReplyDeleteSunday marks the 5 year anniversary of this bull market. Did you know that the closing low and the closing high of the last bull market was EXACTLY 5 years apart? 10/9/02, 10/9/07
ReplyDeleteI think there is merit to this type of information. Does it mean we end here? No, but its important to realize we are near a long extension point and may want to keep an eye on preservation of capital if such events warrant.
DeleteWe are here in Houston and were going to try and take Ports boat ride, but they required reservations and were closed on Monday. Looks like fun. We hope to head back home in a week or so and begin my 4-6 month ordeal. Very unlikely I'll be trading during this time as I have not for months now. Miss it as it stimulating.
Great trades by you guys here lately with special not to TOF's BALT and 2nd,s Putin bluff, plus you other guys.
Houston!?!? Family? Work? The rodeo? I could have gotten u tickets for the BBQ cook off last weekend.
DeleteThe weather on Sunday looks chilly and rainy but let me know if you want to meet for lunch. My treat. Of course I'll have a 5 year old in tow. My wife has a Sunday routine and she loves for me and the youngster to get out of her way.
DeleteThe rodeo is massive and it's a lot of walking. It may have lower attendance due to the weather. Like any major sporting event, parking is always a cluster.
Port, I'd Iike to say any of the above. The rodeo here is the talk of the town in the hotel we are staying at, somewhat of a dive, Extended stay of America, but adequate. The reality is I was given twelve months to live unless I do chemo, so I came here looking for the Holy Grail of an alternative, but have fallen short of that goal. I now get to choose one of the two options above.
DeleteBut the good news is we got to eat at Lubby's for the first time and maybe we may go to the rodeo, but I prefer to stay away from crowds, so maybe the zoo is in order. Sorry you were shaken out of your trade in EPAM, I think, it sucks how the market can be so violent nowadays.
Port, that's a very nice offer, but I'll have to pass. Perhaps next year.
DeleteThank You!
This is definitely the place to try it. I'm nine years and counting so far myself.
DeleteIf you are at Braeswood near Fannin then you are about 12 min from me. Maybe 15 with the rodeo crowd. We like Luby's but how about lunch or midafternoon meal and you can decide what suits you at the moment? Me and the 5 year old hit the zoo a lot. It's part of Hermann Park which I also like a lot.
If you are already doing chemo you may not feel like eating but you might like just getting out and riding around a bit.
I'm leaving Sunday afternoon open. I'll nag you Saturday night.
DeleteWhat's the prognosis with chemo?
DeleteWell 2nd, they say I have one of the few cancers that can be cured by chemo. So, it makes sense to give it a shot. However, I feel pretty good but can tell somethings not right especially when I exercise. Here is what scares me, I have known about 5-7 people in the last 10 years with this issue and when they did chemo they went flat on their back and never recovered and tended to die faster and with no quality of life. If I do chemo and I probably will, its for my wife.
DeleteLife truly is what happens when you busy making other plans.
A ton of new drugs have come on the market in the past ten years. I know someone who was diagnosed with a form of head and neck cancer, for which the standard drug of choice was previously cisplatin. This guy just happened to be diagnosed around the time Erbitux received approval for the same condition- a much safer drug, and one better tolerated by patients. (Cisplatin has a range of adverse effects, including severe nausea/vomiting during treatment, and kidney damage longer term.) So his kidney was spared, and the once weekly treatments were generally well-tolerated. (Both drugs are given in combination with radiation therapy, which includes its own set of problems.) He recently hit his 5-year 'cancer free' anniversary, and is essentially cured. You may have better options and/or a better outcome.
DeleteThanks, yeah they wanted to R-CHOP me in Hawaii, my research showed that Bendamustine plus Rituxan (BR) was less toxic with better outcomes, plus my oncologist has misdiagnosed me for at least a year if not longer. I knew someone from HI that was getting BR at MD Anderson. But he was a grade 1 or 2 and I'm a grade three which is considered aggressive and the standard of care is R-CHOP.
DeleteI have one possible way out and its a clinical trial with a base of R-CHOP versus a pill Revlimid plus Rituxan. The catch is its randomized, so I have a 50/50 chance. Plus it requires a 2.5 year commitment with a 10 follow up. Insurance coverage is an issue too. If I knew I was getting he pill and Rituxan I'd find a way to make it work, but not with a coin flip chance.
Pretty sure I'll go home for treatment will costs should be 4x less. Thanks very much for your thoughts and congratulations to your friend on their success. A postive attitude is the best way through this.
Cheers
Kissinger just explained the Ukrainian situation to me, I'm willing to accept his explanation.
ReplyDeleteWow Mark if that is your cellar, looks like fun.
ReplyDeleteHere is an interesting article from a while ago.
http://www.jamesaltucher.com/2010/02/10-things-i-learned-while-trading-for-victor-niederhoffer/
For the first few minutes, I thought I'd stumbled onto Home Improvement! Then I read the post linked above, and holy shit!
DeleteFunny, when I read the article, #3, the first I thought of was you.
DeleteQualify that a bit 2nd, the part where you go buy the lows during a panic aka Putin and others.
DeleteWell, I also identify with the part about leaving a shitload on the table in the interest of protecting gains.
DeleteI can appreciate this one:
ReplyDelete7.) The First Day of the Month. It’s probably the most important trading day of the month, as inflows come in from 401(k) plans, 1RAs, etc. and mutual fund have to go out there and put this new money into stocks. Over the past 16 years, buying the close on SPY (the S&P 500 ETF) on the last day of the month and selling one day later would result in a successful trade 63% of the time with an average return of 0.37% (as opposed to 0.03% and a 50%-50% success rate if you buy any random day during this period). Various conditions take place that improve this result significantly. For instance, one time I was visiting Victor’s office on the first day of a month and one of his traders showed me a system and said, “If you show this to anyone we will have to kill you.” Basically, the system was: If the last half of the last day of the month was negative and the first half of the first day of the month was negative, buy at 11 a.m. and hold for the rest of the day. “This is an ATM machine” the trader told me. I leave it to the reader to test this system.
It would have worked this Monday!
DeleteAlthough it would have worked much better over a 2-3 day hold.
DeleteIt seems to me that Mark is planning ahead for legalized cannabis. Indoor is the way to go.
ReplyDeleteCrazy natural gas stuff - spot prices in Chicago averaged $25/MMBtu for the first 6 days of March. The Hub has averaged $5.89. I'm sure things were a little lower for tomorrow but I was so busy I didn't have time to look.
ReplyDeleteBALT - I'm actually a little pissed today's action didn't occur the day before Putin's "invasion", that would've felt more normal.
ReplyDeleteSB - I dunno man, does that look like a breakout? I don't think it qualifies, especially since this level's been tested so many times.
ReplyDeleteT3d - My prayers are with you my friend. I've learned the wisdom of the saying "happy wife, happy life".
ReplyDeleteRe the 5 year bull market, I still think we should consider the correction from April, 2011 to October, 2011 a bear market, or say a mini-bear market, as it was quite scary at the time and we did get more than a 20% pullback in many markets and an intra-day, but not closing, 20% pullback in the S&P 500. That would make the bull market about 2.5 years old.
ReplyDeleteAlso, from a talking to people and sentiment perspective, it doesn't feel like we are in a 2007 excited type market, so assuming 5 year cycles still hold, I think looking to a fall, 2016 seems more reasonable for a major market peak.
Sorry to hear about your health issues T3D. I wish you well whatever path you decide to take.
ReplyDeleteANR- I've never been so happy to be out of a stock flat in my life. Read a comment yesterday from the CEO of Duke Energy who basically said they wont ever build any coal plants.
ReplyDeleteIsn't that the kind of sentiment you see at bottoms?
DeleteMaybe if it was from someone else. He basically said they are moving on. I get it.
DeleteIf the horn river basin gets export approval(or any export locations, FWIW), producers will be able to ship natty into a market that now pays $20, vs the US's less than $5, right?
DeleteIf things keep going the way they are without any resolution, only taxing the carbon out of hydrocarbons with no viable alternatives, timber for firewood will be worth considerably more?
Mark, to where are they moving on, microturbines running off flared natty pockets, or burning switch grass made using thousands of solar-powered farm tractors?
DeleteMaybe we harvest the timber from national forests and burn that, like Haiti
More of the same? Our energy policies seem insanely bizarre, we need some clarification on direction before the lights go out.
DeleteSeems logical that energy conservation is going to be the real winner. Without hydrocarbons, lots and lots of heavy blankets will be necessary for our cold winters, along with LED lights run off rechargeable batteries (or maybe just candles!) and horse-drawn buggies for transportation.
DeletePLUG - Still flying, maybe those fuel cells can convert firewood and switch grass to electricity?
DeleteWhat time does this dump open anyway???
ReplyDeleteBALT - I can see this one giving up a full dollar from here, and if it does I'll be adding, following that I'll be hoping and praying.
ReplyDeleteWM - Another aspect of my bizarro-world vision of US energy policy - I can see these waste management guys becoming electric utilities as well, by digging up our land fills and burning the garbage there. There should be some good scrap metal there too, maybe with the proposed CP energy plan we don't need iron ore either.
ReplyDeleteCALM - Don't forget, we can convert chicken shit to motor fuel too, chickens that lay(poop) golden eggs!
Put a chicken in your tank!
DeleteAVAV - This one roared when GOOG bought that drone manufacturer, didn't it?
ReplyDeleteAGCO - Just keeps ripping higher, these tractors are good for raising switch grass for motor fuel. Switch grass takes about 7yrs to grow a good stand in a field.
ReplyDeleteBTU - Oh baby, coal really is dead! So what will bulkers haul across oceans free coal (please take our coal free, we don't want it!)?
ReplyDeleteEPAM - Seem like it's no longer falling.
ReplyDeleteBaltic Dry Index (BDI) +63 1543
ReplyDeleteNOR - Aluminum is on fire "25-Jul-13 Downgrade UBS Buy → Neutral $4.25 → $3.50"
ReplyDeleteINT - ih&s suggests $50, BDI is fuel for this fire ships need fuel?
ReplyDeleteEWZ - Beat to hell, will we be able to pick this one up at $20 in a few months?
ReplyDeleteEPI - Going to $21?
ReplyDeleteTSM - What do you think?
ReplyDeleteCoal is dead? Hmmm...KOL rejected at the 200 DMA, weekly chart is showing positive divergences and potential double bottom. Goldman downgrades and Duke Energy says it wants out. Skeptical side of me says big money wants in.
ReplyDeleteOh hell yeah, that makes perfect sense. I'm sure Duke isn't beyond becoming part and parcel to GS's game... Right up their alley, rinse and repeat.
DeleteSB - Umm, that's a breakout. Someone must transport GS's coal globally, may as well be bulkers as opposed to solar powered drones (not that there's anything wrong with that!).
ReplyDeleteBALT - Looks like someone's willing to buy all you want to sell, at $7.48... GS, maybe?
Delete"Crazy natural gas stuff - spot prices in Chicago averaged $25/MMBtu for the first 6 days of March. The Hub has averaged $5.89. I'm sure things were a little lower for tomorrow but I was so busy I didn't have time to look."
ReplyDeleteIf we transported it, we could make the spread.
BSBR - No shit, just as I was preparing a bid..... Alright then, $4.88, hit me! And one @ $7.37 on BALT, for grins Now, how much should I bid KWK for?
ReplyDeleteTGIBDDFF (Beat down dirty fuel.)
ReplyDeleteWonder what GS was saying about coal's future at the peak?
DeleteSetting aside this week’s spectacular rally in Indian shares (EPI +5%), it appears investors have decided Emerging Markets are once again in ‘crisis.’ They’re a fickle group, those investors.
ReplyDelete(a) Reopened RSX (Russia) @ 22.85.
(b) Reopend EWZ (Brazil) @ 40.25.
(c) Reopened PBR (Petrobras) @ 10.81.
(d) Still debating EEM/ RYWVX.
ANR - Target $2 ?
ReplyDeleteNIKE - I think the new shoe looks much like an old sock from Elizabethan times, the primary difference is it's modern design uses fuel cell technologies in the sole to eliminate foot odor?
ReplyDeleteWait a second, I thought coal was priced around $40/ton?
ReplyDelete"Duke, the nation's largest electricity company, has an existing program seeking beneficial uses for its waste. Depending on its quality, coal ash can be sold for as much as $40 a ton, enough to cover the cost of hauling it away."
Sorry, coal is in the low $90's right now, and mid $70's is production cost.
DeleteU.S. Coal Basins competitive gas prices (BTU data):
Competitive natural gas price per MMBtu range
Powder River Basin (PRB) $2.5 to $2.75
Illinois Basin $3.25 to $3.50
Appalachian Basin $4.5 to $4.75
XIN - This one broke upwards.
ReplyDeleteTRQ - BB's metals play looks like it's moving up.
ReplyDeleteCPE - Check this one out, it's in the Permian and breaking out.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/callon-petroleum-announces-expected-120-130200419.html
Robot - Short from SPX 1873 on 3/7/14
ReplyDeleteDr. Copper struggling with case of late winter emphysema.
CP,
ReplyDeleteTRQ is not IVN.TO. What happenned is TRQ was originally Ivanhoe Mines and set up by Freidman, the same guy. It was renamed Turquoise Hill (TRQ) a few years ago when it became a pure Mongolia play.
IVN.TO was created as a new company called Ivanplatts, but it was renamed Ivanhoe Mines a couple of years ago after TRQ got its new name. I think it was just done for marketing and fund raising purposes.
Rick Rule, who is one Sprott's best guys, was on TV this week talking about a bunch of mining stocks including Ivanhoe: http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip1071939
To summarize, "He has increased his holding substantially. He has never seen such an amalgamation of things that could go right. Believes this will be the poster child for a Harvard Business School case study for this market. He is willing to take political risk, which this has, rather than technical risk. They have the best undeveloped platinum deposit in the world. They have the best copper discovery in the world. They have to raise a lot of money to put them all into production, but their CEO is the best spokesman in the world."
NWLI reported earnings yesterday, solid again, with a good increase in book value.
ReplyDeleteSo, now it trades at a P/E of 9 and P/B of 0.6.
Peaked with the market in 2008 at over 100% of BV and in 1998 (when value stocks peaked before the tech frenzy) also at over 100% of book value. So, let's say this trend holds again and it should as that is how insurance companies are valued, then if the market peaks in about 4 years, the book value should be over $500, so the stock should double from here, for annual compounded ROI of over 20%. I think that will be a pretty good return given current market valuations.
Plus, Barron's had a very positive article on Barron's and the life insurance industry in general this weekend, so hopefully that drives some interest.
Tufts debates fossil fuel divestiture:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thenation.com/blog/178709/tufts-students-say-fear-held-university-back-fossil-fuel-divestment
Telestar3d, I just sent you an email.
ReplyDeleteDon't forget the time change. Move your clock ahead one hour.
DeletePort, sent you n e-mail. Thanks
Deletehttp://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/12/30/sp-500-has-1-in-3-chance-of-rising-30-in-2014-j-p-morgans-thomas-lee/
ReplyDeleteOptimistic call on the market:
Inflation is definitely taming in china which is a good thing
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-february-cpi-up-2-on-year-2014-03-09?link=MW_home_latest_news