(a) http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500-will-rise-to-2100-by-september-2014-03-12?siteid=rss&utm_source=tf
'Sam Eisenstadt has a fabulous birthday present to give the bull market as it celebrates its fifth anniversary: A forecast that the S&P 500 will rise 12% over the next six months.'
(b) http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-03-12/how-market-tops-get-made
What does all this mean for the current run? According to Lowry’s, “the weight of evidence continues to suggest a healthy primary uptrend with no end in sight.”
HDGE off @ 12.85 for a +1% gain. Back to a market neutral stance.
ReplyDeleteLOTS of panic this morning. I'm seeing it in the shipping space for sure...BALT's hourly RSI_EMA reading hit 8 this morning, which is the same level it hit late January 1 day before it bottomed.
ReplyDeleteLook at just the surface of this move:
ReplyDeleteBreak out of a consolidation period to new highs. Backtest right now to the old highs?
Same thing with BALT and some of the other stocks I follow...so far.
Seems pretty much the same to me as well. Must be wrong then :)
DeleteBALT - So far today, it's a hammer.
DeleteRe: SHIPPING:
ReplyDeleteThe spot rates dropped this morning for the first time in a while. I mentioned last week that this area would be a logical spot for rates to pause since they're bumping up against support from late last year...and that they might later rally on unknown events (I suspected it would be China stimulus). I know this has absolutely no bearing on what baltic dry rates do but the parallel with the FB pattern is still holding true. I only used this because it gives a guide to human emotions and how similar patterns might unfold.
I see this news today (you have to Google it to get the free version: "Analysts see prospects for China economic support")
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2014/03/12/analysts-see-prospects-for-china-economic-support/#axzz2vl33WDMn
Logical articles from 2nd showing the bull has a long way to run. We are at the top of the year-long channel, so a pullback wouldn't be a surprise, but good from a sentiment perspective to see people getting negative quickly on these small pullbacks.
ReplyDeleteGERN - Smashed!
ReplyDelete"NYC - Building explodes, collapses." No detail, maybe gas explosion?
Noranda Aluminum Holding Corp.: Power play drama unfolding; maintain Underperform
Change in Earnings Forecast ReportClose
Noranda Aluminum Holding Corp.: Power play drama unfolding; maintain Underperform
3/12/2014 2:09 PM
NOR announced that Apollo intended to sell 10M shares in a secondary offering, lowering its ownership to around 34% from 48%. NOR disclosed that Q1 costs were expected to be $0.03-0.04/lb higher than previously forecast due to weather issues. Earlier this week Walmart filed a motion to intervene on NOR's proposed rate cut without taking an official position.
Download PDF Report (330kb) »
China Lodging Group: 4Q results strong beat/ Raise PO to US$32.5
URG - This one sure has taken a hit lately, just say no to nuclear power?
ReplyDeleteENPH - Missed that dip, still thinking about this one.
ReplyDeleteANR/ACI/BTU - Power plants restocking coal today? Ever notice how every photo of a coal power plant has a train loaded with coal in it?
ReplyDeleteAA - Sure looks like this one wants to begin another leg up. $12 support holding up well.....
ReplyDeletePALL - Can the breakout run? I have doubts.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Something about opening Liberty mine, no detail yet. I haven't been following molybdenum prices either.
ReplyDeleteCPST - Still smokin'
ReplyDeleteBaltic Dry Index (BDI) -127 1453
ReplyDeletePretty big drop, no doubt there's a relationship to coal. China has high sulfur coal, apparently, wonder if they have plans for low sulfur from the US, or if Australian col is low sulfur?
My take is rates ran up for a few weeks right to prior support without any pullback. Reasonable place for it to drop.
DeleteDon't think TA directly applies to BDI, economic activity perhaps.
DeleteIn order to keep some trading going, I decided to place a sell limit order at $6.25 for the ALTI shares I added yesterday at $5.25, and also at $3.25 for the shares of STV I added yesterday at $2.75. Will keep the initial core position in these stocks for the long term and will trade around it on dips like yesterday...
ReplyDeleteLong FNMA at $3.39
ReplyDeleteSold at $3.54
DeleteGive me a mkt that falls with no wall of worry and then I'm worried. Right now everyone fears China.
ReplyDeleteLong PLUG $6.59. Daytrade only
ReplyDeleteGoing out for a walk. Stop at $6.4
DeleteI think a big part of this selloff came from the drop in Copper/PLUG/BLDP/FNMA and a few China stocks. I think this blows over soon.
DeleteWell I didn't have to wait long. Sold at $6.73
DeleteI really don't see how the GSE's can be completely restructured without causing a huge disturbance, maybe I'll eventually find an article or news report explaining the plan.
DeleteLong SPY at $187
ReplyDeleteClosed that out. Mark's covering my commissions.
DeleteI thought he was going to remodel his basement in 4 days, by himself? I just hope he doesn't put an eye out or something.
DeleteI'm thinking TWTR is a buy
ReplyDeleteI sold 1/10 of my BALT at $6.96 - $6.98. Just in case this is the big one. Locking in some gains and raising cash.
ReplyDeleteQuite frankly the stock is acting perfectly so I'm probably over-reacting. But I'm sitting on 45% gains without having taken anything off the table and while I should have at $7.7 I realize I could have easily said the same at $5.8 or $6.4 or some other lower price.
DeleteJust look at the SPY chart and you'll see we were on the upper trend line. Pretty easy to imagine that would be a good place to short, if you believe in TA.
DeleteThis looks like just another v-shaped bottomed. Classic bottoming tail / sharp intraday reversal.
DeleteI think it makes sense to trade in and out around a core position, but you're supposed to cut your trading shares based on hitting upper trend lines and H&S targets, etc., then reload them as support levels arrive or are undercut slightly.
DeleteLooks to me like BALT bounced off the 20SMA and formed a hammer today, could be a good place to load some shares..
Deleteright...i intended to do just that the day it gapped up but i didn't wake up in time and it fell back to the prior day's closing price pretty quickly. shoulda coulda woulda.
Deletemy only beef with that strategy is that it is very hard to remove your emotions from this. the urge to sell all is greater when you sell a little and when you've sold a little your conviction level goes down, in my experience.
DeleteAcross the board, bottoming tails in all shippers as well as the market. From a technical perspective, it looks perfectly fine.
DeleteI don't see any giant volume days since the peak, and hell, we even have a gap down obligation from this morning that needs to fill, with a hammer today. Maybe today was a bull trap setup for anyone who bought today but unless something material occurred, that gap should fill and it's kinda obvious(too obvious, thus false?) today was the day to reload some of those shares that were offed in the high $7's.
DeleteI keep wondering why someone didn't just buy the company when it was trading under $4, maybe they loaded up on shares instead?
DeleteThere's a lot I don't understand about markets, my fear is the real reason they exist is to vacuum up money.
Shoulda, woulda, coulda will always be the case. If we think BALT will move higher then we should own it, simple as that, unless we're proven wrong or we're satisfied it's fully priced.
DeleteCP - My short term thinking on the dry bulk segment shifts on pretty much a daily basis. But longer term I think the bottom is in and a slow improvement will play out over the first 2 to 3 years from the bottom, which I peg at about a year ago. I think after that point the sector will rally fairly hard. So my suspicion is we will see many rallies and pullbacks but each pullback will bottom out at higher levels. Not every stock in the sector is the same, obviously. For BALT, I wouldn't be surprised to see it pull back to $6 or the high $5's, then rally to $9, etc. At some point I think it goes to $30.
DeleteIt seems like the initial run is often bumpy with sharp pullbacks. Then more and more people buy into the recovery and the pullbacks become less and less sharp and then you finally have a euphoric run at the end. Take a look at the 6 year chart of KKD. Great example. Shit even the S&P over the past 5 years is a good example.
DeleteAgree completely, I find it hard to believe we'll find hydrogen wells anytime soon so the dream about carbon free and nuclear free is simply false. Yeah sure, we can hang a solar panel here and there and run a few LED bulbs using that, if I were an African bushman that would more than suffice.
Delete"when you sell a little and when you've sold a little your conviction level goes down"
ReplyDeleteThat's probably true to some extent but if you think the stock is underpriced and convinced the trend is up then by trading TA indicators it not only gives you something to do, LOL, but if you do it right you can lower your cost basis in case your stock gets hit by a truck, or something unanticipated happens. This is why I don't want to just buy/hold.
yep the majority of these stocks go through wild swings and you have the chance to play the swings if you want. i still think it hurts your conviction level overall though.
DeleteAs far as channels go, BALT broke through the top of it's prior channel. the bottom of the channel is now around the high $5's. These turnaround stock/sectors tend to create steeper and steeper channels until the top is formed. Look at SUNE. Or the coal stocks from 07-08.
Yet another example why one should never fall in love with a 'story' stock.
ReplyDelete'Zogenix plummets after rival advances abuse-resistant painkiller
Shares of Zogenix (ZGNX), which develops drugs for pain-related conditions, are lower after rival Purdue Pharma unveiled data on a study of its own abuse resistant painkiller. WHAT'S NEW: Earlier today, Purdue Pharma announced that a Phase 3 study of an investigational extended-release formulation of hydrocodone bitartrate met its primary efficacy endpoint. The company added that this investigational single-entity opioid analgesic formulation incorporates abuse-deterrent properties intended to make the tablets more difficult to manipulate for the purpose of misuse and abuse. Purdue Pharma's Senior Vice President of Research and Development Gary Stiles said, "We are very encouraged by the results of this pivotal study. This is another step forward in our efforts to develop therapeutic options for use by chronic pain patients that are designed to be unattractive to drug seekers." Purdue said it plans to file a New Drug Application with the FDA later in 2014 requesting approval to market the medication. Zogenix recently released Zohydro, a powerful opioid painkiller, that has been highly criticized for its abuse potential. PRICE ACTION: Shares of Zogenix are down almost 18% to $3.73 in morning trading. Shares of Zogenix had doubled since getting FDA approval for Zohydro in late October. Purdue Pharma is a private company.'
or perhaps just coming back to its channel since June 2013? it broke above briefly a month ago and now it broke below briefly. i have another explanation: it's a biotech! those things are all EKG machines.
DeleteLet's see how Zogenix responds. I don't watch reality TV, but if I did this would be a pretty good show.
DeleteIMO, ZGNX unlikely to recover quickly. Purdue has a patented 'abuse-resistant' tablet formulation for OxyContin. All they need to do is modify their manufacturing facilities to include hydrocodone, and they will be marketing a ZGNX-killer named HydroContin (or something similar).
DeleteThought I overheard a couple of guys in the men's room at Purdue calling it 'ZoHydroIncontinent.'
DeleteWell, there's always the black market in Thailand. ZoHydro will find a home.
DeleteMy question is, does Purdue's product contain compounds that will cause my liver to fail or my kidney's to shut down in the event mt spinal injury persists for the remainder of my life?
DeleteZGNX - Down on news from competitor?
ReplyDeleteYou holding man??
DeleteCome on man, TOF's hurting here. Be a bro.
DeleteNo, just that this particular subject is near and dear, a female friend of mine was born late 30's with double hip displacement and spent most of her you in the state hospital where they would remove her from her cast periodically to break her bones in attempt to straighten them so she could walk. She was brought home once it was discovered she'd been repeatedly raped by orderlies there. This woman knows pain, she's lived with it all her life, so I can see the need for these kind of medications.
DeleteNot a funny subject when you're laid up for years or decades with a spinal injury that you will never recover from, it could easily happen to me or you making a simple trip to the grocery for a jug of milk.
Are you still holding balt and enph? I realized I didn't quite sell 10% of my shares of balt. I did the wrong math. Sold about 6%. Prob should have acted on it when we emailed about it last Thursday
ReplyDeleteI pulled this off CNBC - comments by Tyson's CEO.
ReplyDeleteFood prices are expected to rise later this year, partly because of a severe drought in California and unpredictable weather around the world, but Tyson Foods CEO Donnie Smith said that won't stop his firm from posting record earnings for the year.
"Meat demand is still really good," Tyson Foods CEO Donnie Smith told CNBC on Wednesday. "We're able to pass those prices along. I think you should expect to see very high prices" for your meats this year.
He said the company has managed to increase its margins this year and reaffirmed that the company expects to post record earnings for the full year.
His comments come as California officials battle with one of that state's driest years in decades and a porcine disease is shrinking the pork market.
"California officials battle with one of that state's driest years in decades"
DeleteSounds like not a whole lot of proactive thinking going on, LOL..........
CP, it's Cali bro.
DeleteOh heck, the warning bells were going off way back when the aquaduct was being installed. The decisions were with purpose, just like Fukushima's cooling ponds were intentionally placed in the attic with the generators in the basement.
DeleteA bit of a confusing article, but the chart is good showing FLWS one of the lowest valued of the E-Commerce companies.
ReplyDeleteTo get in line with the average would be almost a triple from here. Not sure if that is a valid conclusion as the variety of companies is so high, but does show the potential for upside if the stock gets some attention.
I decided I like the name 1-800-flowers, perhaps that's a mistake in the internet age?
DeleteI think we may be hitting a little bit of a rough patch here soon. I'm looking to raise some cash. Maybe nothing catastrophic but I suspect we will get a 7 to 10% pullback soon. Hopefully it will be short and sweet. I think there are enough warning signs with respect to global slowdowns to catch people off balance soon. I guess I'm just not finding a ton of stuff I love at this point. I like a few things and would love to catch them on further weakness, like NILE/LNKD/TWTR for internet companies and a few other things I'm still researching. I like the shippers a lot longer term but I think the China slowdown is a definitely cause for a pause. Will be telling to see how they do if we get a pullback...if they hold in there and make higher highs then that tells me the supply restraints are outweighing any concerns about demand.
ReplyDeleteI also think sentiment has soured enough on shippers that they will be fine for the longer term.
DeleteI'd follow you but I'm tripping over piles for worthless fiat.
DeleteI'm up like about $0.05 on a couple stocks this morning, perhaps I should take my gains off the table for a reload lower........
ReplyDeleteRSXJ @ 29.73.
ReplyDeletePBR @ 10.83.
VALE @ 12.97.
FXI @ 33.65.
DeleteAll of the above are officially PsOS.
DeleteI like the pluralization of the P.
DeleteYes. Superb timing, as always.
DeleteYes, I'm a stickler for grammar.
DeleteKWK - Major vote of confidence? Inquiring minds... 2nd hammer in so many days, but the first wasn't clear of the flotsam....... Neither is this one, exactly.
ReplyDeleteELNK - This gives you an idea how much my ISP stinks lately, LOL Most recent issue seems to be "Cannot communicate with DNS server 207.69.188.207"
I suspect if China isn't crashing, they will still pull out all the stops to make the most out of the crisis.
ReplyDeleteWe'll see a big stimulus out of them before its all said and done.
DeleteNot sure if this is BS, but some one said that China is experiencing a labor shortage as there are no more youth available to migrate into cities from rural areas, thus wages have shot up. Look to Indonesia for growth, they mentioned. Remember not so long ago we were being told Indonesia is a disaster zone?
DeleteI dunno if they have plans for a big stimulus, but I'm pretty sure they'd love to snatch up global natural resources for pennies on the dollar.
DeleteBALT - That lift to $7.12 barely suffices the gap down obligating created yesterday...
ReplyDeleteI was keeping the lid on things this morning as I was selling right after the open. Raised a good deal of cash but not enough.
DeleteANGO - Have to lower my stink bid form $52.07, the world is once again back to falling off a cliff.okay, thanks.
ReplyDeleteCoulda made $0.11..........
DeleteI bought back half of the shares I sold of BALT in the event they stop the selloff at the old highs yet again. I'm still somewhat skeptical of the fact that everyone knows why we're selling off (China). A lot of fear is being spread about China.
ReplyDeleteThat was what I'd been trying to do, that strategy works better on the way down.
DeleteIt's so volatile out there. I sold a bunch at $7.02 to $7.08 this morning and just bought a bunch of them back at $6.82. That's quite a swing.
DeleteNice work, man! :)
DeleteENPH has been holding in very well.
ReplyDeleteThere must be something creating the crappy sentiment, bad econ dat? I think maybe I got my ISP going back full blast so now might be able to get the scoop.
ReplyDeleteThis means buy MET, sell iron right???
ReplyDelete"Metals & Mining: Platts call takeaways: Met still pressured; iron ore finds floor
28 minutes ago"
CCJ looks awesome. You guys nailed it on that one.
ReplyDeleteCoal ash maybe has enough radioactive elements in it to refine into nuclear fuel?
DeleteIs it naive to think that at some point here people have to step in and buy emerging markets due to valuations? I'd have to imagine they're getting quite compelling for some larger players that are avoiding them like the plague.
ReplyDeletePlus big players have to buy before the bottom in order to get large positions - it's one of their weaknesses that they can't get a full position in one day. I wish I knew more about stocks in some of these countries - I'm sure that there are good stocks to buy if you know where to look.
DeleteCoal - The average coal plant burns approximately 200 coal cars a day, with 100 tons per car. This makes 73,000 cars per year, or 7,300,000 tons per year.
ReplyDeleteCoal demand is falling is the US as people move to Natural Gas. I hate buying stocks where demand is falling unless you get them supercheap. Too much bad seems to happen.
DeleteYou fundamental guys will want to see this re: Europe. The risk is insane.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/03/mark-blyth-austerity-the-history-of-a-dangerous-idea-2/?utm_source=The+Big+Picture+Updates&utm_campaign=c621db6686-big_picture_email&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_662cf1de86-c621db6686-39094585
CC, it's an hour video. That's a lot of time. Can you summarize his points?
DeleteJudging by the title, this guys is down on austerity, but the European economy does seem to be improving. Ireland sold 10 year bonds today at .3% above US Treasuries. In my opinion, reality is a lot of these countries had no choice but austerity. A lot of the PIIGS were non-competitive without it and they were forced to make the hard decisions to restructure their economy that they otherwise never would have made. Go read the Greek newspapers online if you like - a lot of common Greeks feel that their politicians and before that Monarchs were crooks and the ECB is getting things (painfully) on track.
All true but he will tell you why all the Euro banks are huge risks and the austerity is to help them because there was no other way out.
DeleteIt will be a looonnngggg time before Europe, especially GB will be whole again.
Honestly, it was worth the hour to me to see how F'ed Europe is and how the Euro made a mess of everything. That is why the piigs are so important, because even one small failure will bring down the rest, even Germany and the Netherlands. Whereas in the U.S. we have our own currency (and presses) and austerity would actually be bad here. I wouldn't bet on Fed tightening or rising interest rates for a while. He goes quite fast and it's very engaging and factual. We are still in quite a risky situation world wide.
new post
ReplyDelete