(a) http://thediplomat.com/2014/03/chinas-mixed-economic-signals/ They're building the 'Great Wall of Worry' in China. No worries here. It provides the Shanghai Composite a solid platform against which to plant its feet for a vertical climb.
(b) The afterlife. A misnomer, really. 'This' life is the tip of the iceberg, the 'beginning' moments which hint at what's to come. I've commented before on my 'near drowning' experience around age 6 or 7, when I slowly descended to the bottom of the pool (I ended up in the wrong line during swimming class and jumped in over my head), when I calmly accepted the possibility of 'dying' before celebrating an upcoming birthday. I believe it was my sixth sense telling me there's nothing to be afraid of. An eternity to contemplate/experience every nuance/setting that life has to offer. Death is the ultimate fake out. You'll live a happier 'beginning' if you fade thoughts of 'death.'
Port, sent you an e-mail. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteThanks for all the good wishes men.
Don't argue with the tape.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/trading_diary.php
>2 years of strenuous wrestling with the tape.
Deletehttp://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc140310.htm
What if. Not saying I believe it, but what if. We look back in 5 years and realize global markets were about to explode higher.
DeletePartly because 'everyone knows' things are generally bad and markets need to correct. How bad are they, exactly? And who's to say they're good or bad?
DeleteMarketwatch is full of 'warnings' right now. That doesn't happen at tops.
DeleteObviously, I'm just entertaining the thought at this point. One I'm unable to 'dismiss' lightly.
DeleteMaybe it's because I'm watching the French series 'The Returned' on NFLX, and it has my mind weird-ed out. That thing's a mind bender.
DeleteNo mercy.
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/CanadaDotCom/status/442495792415117314/photo/1
Hey 2nd I think I've asked this before but are you Christian ?
ReplyDeleteYes, I totally believe. It's been a long time since I've attended church, though. How do I reconcile that? Well, I really should.
DeleteHere's my story. I was raised in an agnostic household, and until I started high school never attended church. One evening I was invited by a classmate to a Bible Study at the local Baptist church. There was a service afterwards, and I recall listening to a sermon. During the sermon, God must have spoken to me. The tradition at the end of each service is for the minister to invite anyone who wishes to receive Jesus Christ as his Lord and Savior to the front. I felt compelled to rise, but noticed no one else was getting up. So I remained seated (but inwardly, I was amazed at the tepid response by the crowd). I eventually (several months later) publicly acknowledged my faith, and was baptized at that church. Do we choose God, or does He choose us? That's a good question. All I can say is that I have no doubt in the afterlife.
I also believe I was saved just in time. You all know I went through a rough patch in 1973-74 (I was baptized in 1970). I won't reveal the details, but God bailed me out of several situations (directly and indirectly, physically and/or mentally) that would have placed me a long way from where I am today.
DeleteA long, long way.
DeleteIn times of war, it's much easier to 'believe.' If one carefully contemplates the existence of evil (the Japanese invasion of Nanjing, for instance), the existence of God almost follows as a natural conclusion.
DeleteSo it's a truism that we all turn to God in times of distress. Yet I see distress as a beautiful example of His existence. When confronted with evil, how is it possible not to believe?
DeleteGiven my contrarian nature, it's probably no surprise that I often view God's existence through the lens of the existence of evil.
DeleteAtheists and agnostics can put up brave fronts. But at death's door, or at the point where one is confronted by evil, do you want to be on your own, or do you want God on your side? For me it's no contest.
DeleteHere's something else to consider. How would you handle the scenario that once deceased, it's over? You will never see your family again, you will never experience consciousness again, and your life had no lasting meaning? That doesn't do it for me.
DeleteThanks for sharing. I'm with you.
DeleteSeems like it's always "about to get worse" whether it's true or not, LOL
ReplyDeleteFutures are negative, but we all know futures reverse at least half the time. I'm not certain, but global markets 'feel' like they want to rally.
DeleteI keep looking at the Bombay Sensex. No EM crisis evident there.
DeleteEveryone expects Shanghai to gap down based on exports and bond defaults. It may very well gap down. If it doesn't, that will be telling.
DeleteI prefer down futures coming out of the weekend. If they are up, they seem to almost always give it back. Better for the overall market that people get stressed out over the weekend and sell rather than get excited.
DeleteProbably big up Mondays happen near the end of the bull (but I am just thinking, no facts behind this).
I agree with your comments re futures. Futures provide trading vehicles for traders with futures accounts, but very little guidance about the future.
DeleteRe Hussman,
ReplyDeleteIf something has indicated a top 4 times over 50 years and was correct, but has indicated a market top 5 times over the last 2 years incorrectly, why do you continue to think it is correct?
Things change in the market and being stubborn is almost certainly a way for anyone to lose money.
He's human. Therein lies the problem.
DeleteYeah and he's boxed himself into a corner now. Look at all the flack Rosenberg took when he realized being a bear was wrong and flipped to being a bull - can you imagine if HUssman did!
DeleteThe day Hussman becomes a bull, David will buy a house, renounce Buddhism, and become a full time nanny for Ellison.
DeleteTalking to my gold bug friends this weekend.
ReplyDeleteThe hard-core gold bug didn't put any money into his retirement savings (401K) this year because he thinks there is nowhere to put money in the market and the only thing you can do right now is buy physical gold and you can't do that in these plans in Canada. Even GLD is too risky as that is just "paper gold".
So my soft gold bug friend says, "yeah you're right", so doesn't put any money into his retirement savings and decides to refinish his basement instead.
I told him just to put the money into stocks, but he thinks they've gone up too much and he's missed his opportunity now. I wonder how many other people feel like that and will be forced to buy the market even higher - probably lots.
Basement hun?
DeleteSPY - Looking at this chart it seems like if it breaks out here it will vault $10 but that would seem to be an unhealthy move. Seems more logical for it to retest the lower trend line which would be around 180 or so.
ReplyDeleteSo I think it's relatively safe to scalp a bit on the short side here. Seems logical EEM's might rock though... See IDX has broken up to newer highs.
I agree with CP on the SPY. Seems like a pullback, large or small, is in order. Not predicting just anticipating. Most of the IBD 50 is extended beyond their calculated buy points. And I'm just tired and nothing seems interesting at the moment.
ReplyDeleteThat's about as well as I could ever say it Porterman.
DeleteXIN - This one broke out of downtrend
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Back to the trend line where it seems to get rejected.
ReplyDeleteBaltic Dry Index (BDI) +63 1543
ReplyDeleteInteresting that Copper is now at its lowest level in 5 years. Still over $3.00, so still a good price as was under this for many years (decades) up until the 2003 commodity bull started. But I look at the chart and it is sure something I wouldn't normally buy.
ReplyDeleteCould be just a China thing with less copper-intensive economies like the US ramping up manufacturing and China cutting back, but I would like to see copper holding in the $1.00 - $3.50 range.
I agree, copper is historically high and I think for people to say low copper means low economic activity may be incorrect. Seems like so many miners have copper mines coming on line copper might struggle for good reason?
DeleteLow copper and iron puts the squeeze on South America, doesn't it?
DeleteCheap coal is maybe wind in sails for bulk shippers? Or is Mongolia where the materials are coming from? Wonder how low TCK might go?
ReplyDelete"BofAML Weekly Metals Musings: Not time to be a hero with met coal at seven-year lows
3/10/2014 12:16 PM
We review a week of aerospace materials channel checks, and softening iron ore and met coal prices to 7-year lows. This week MT and SXC host investor days, and we host a call on iron ore and met with Platts ahead of Q2 met coal settlement. We advise against chasing falling commodity prices for miners and X. We prefer non-res levered top pick NUE, STLD, and RS."
CPE - Friday bull trap?
ReplyDeleteIVP.TO = IVPAF, I believe, right?
ReplyDeleteHere's what I have showing from the broker, IVN.TO isn't listed:
DeleteBofAML Ticker / Exchange YIVN / TOR
BofAML Ticker / Exchange IVPAF / NYS
Bloomberg / Reuters IVN CN / IVP.TO
Correct.
DeleteSo it appears to me I cannot establish a position in IVN.TO from my platform.
DeleteSomething has got to get me interested in trading again.
ReplyDelete...on CNBC just now...'the weather comes and goes.'
ReplyDeleteMXC - This baby is in West Texas as well, not sure what properties the own/have.
ReplyDeleteRSX, that 2nd bought last week looks interesting.
ReplyDeleteCheapest stock market in the world, and rightfully so, but Putin seems to be being reasonable, so if this Ukraine thing can get resolved out with Russia being fair and businesslike, Russia stocks could get rerated higher.
Kissinger's explanation was quite interesting, basically he said to expect those troops who appeared from nowhere to also disappear as quickly, as if nothing had ever happened. He said Putin moved to ensure Russia retain access to the seaport Sevastapol.
DeleteAGCO - Ouch, nice bull trap, was wondering when/if a trip back to low $52 level might happen. This isn't even a fly-by -night company, either...
ReplyDeleteTC - My broker(service) has a $7 PO assigned to this one.
ReplyDeleteI dunno, seems like to me the market knows the mandated switch to alternative energy will come at a high price. Imagine electricity prices increasing 4x or more, XOM plainly stated they're not interested in developing fossil fuels further, didn't they?
ReplyDeleteFLWS - Violent action, Friday was dump day and today smells like roses.... Sheesh.
ReplyDeleteEPAM - This one would be a good play on Ukraine tensions easing but only IF that's the REAL reason it was dumped.
ReplyDeletePLUG - We know they work, but where the HELL is the fuel coming from to power these fuel cells!!!!!!!????????
ReplyDeleteHonestly, it's a pure momentum move. The guy I know that took a 5% stake in the company around $0.50 is still fully long from what I've heard. Just unbelievable.
DeleteI just checked out of curiosity on PLUG:
Delete"Shares of this security are currently not available to short sell."
Right, so all those shorts are going to have to cover eventually after they make a ton off the charade, somewhere under $1 or something like that maybe.
DeleteAPD - When I was working with high pruity hydrogen in the lab, we used to buy it from these guys. They made ours using cryogenic distillation and it wasn't cheap:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.airproducts.com/industries/Energy/Hydrogen-Energy.aspx
APD makes this fueling station, I dunno if someone else comes along with their version, maybe whoever makes gasoline pumps?
Deletehttp://www.airproducts.com/~/media/downloads/r/retail-hydrogen-dispenser/data-sheets/en-hydrogen-energy-smartfuel-h70-h35-retail-hydrogen-dispenser.pdf
This just seems so crazy, how do you manufacture H2 without leaving a larger carbon footprint unless someone has found a new way. I can see being forced to run forklifts on H2 to meet workplace safety standards maybe. Think about it though, doesn't that tell you something about how much battery-operated forklifts must actually suck? Extend that to battery operated cars. Sure, a battery operated car is just fine for a few CEO's to drive 15 miles from their house in the East bay hills down into the valley to collect their annual bonus..... Electric golf carts are nothing new, and yet not too many are being used in town for local commuting.
FLWS - What say we write and publish our own convincing article on how flower power is the energy of the future? :p
ReplyDelete"Here's something else to consider. How would you handle the scenario that once deceased, it's over? You will never see your family again, you will never experience consciousness again, and your life had no lasting meaning? That doesn't do it for me. "
ReplyDelete2nd - thanks for the reply. great stuff. Just curious, but is part of your faith based on it being the best option?
I guess there wouldn't be much handling of matters or strategising for that matter, occurring from the grave?
DeleteNo. Faith is a gift from God. Faith is partly innate, which is to say we're born with it. I can attest to that, as I recall 'talking' to God even before attending church. Faith is also strengthened by hearing the Word of God. In my case, all it took was one sermon.
DeleteThat was a good read! I'm still digesting.
ReplyDeleteBB - Thanks for the gold bug comments. One thing that I think could really boost consumer confidence and make people come into the market heavily is if the budget gets balanced. The majority of gold / bitcoin bugs are in those because they don't have faith in the US budget system. They think things will eventually collapse. If we are able to get out of this period with a balanced budget, the money should quickly exit out of precious metals and move into the markets.
ReplyDeleteSilver may not have much downside potential if it's trading near cost to produce? Well, silver would probably collapse if demand was to cease, Solar cells still use silver (I THINK!!!) so if say perhaps hydrogen displaces solar energy(see PLUG) then there would be a surplus of silver for some period of time. It's funny though, the silver crazies never seem to talk about the solar application, mostly smart phones using silver solder in the PCB's, but more and more of the chips are being integrated onto a single piece of silicon, (size reduction) thus less silver is necessary as the smartphones physically shrink.
DeleteGDP - I see he mentioned this one.
ReplyDeleteAMZN - Automated warehouses? Wonder how H2 powered forklifts would fit in, I bet they won't.
ReplyDeleteBSBR - I just can't understand why BSBR refuses to hit my $3.80 stink bid.......
ReplyDeleteAnd why the hell won't it just gap up like FMC just did?
DeleteHuh, say what, FCEL's power plant produces hydrogen for sale?
ReplyDelete"FCEL climbed from $1.95 to a high of $3.58 before finishing the week at $3.53. That's a stunning 81% gain in just a single week's time. And the stock is now up more than 150% year-to-date.
The shares rocketed higher on news that FuelCell received a $2.8 million continuation of an award from the US Department of Energy.
The funds are intended to help with the company's installation of a sub-megawatt fuel cell power plant in Connecticut. The plant will not only generate electricity and heat but hydrogen as well.
The purpose of the award is to showcase the tri-generation capabilities of the company's Direct FuelCell power plant. By providing hydrogen at the point of use (in addition to ultra-clean electricity and usable high-quality heat), FuelCell can help industrial customers reduce costs associated with purchasing, transporting, and storing hydrogen."
FCEL claims it burns natty gas:
Deletehttp://www.ctpost.com/local/article/Largest-fuel-cell-generation-plant-in-N-A-4489029.php
KWK - Technical buy
ReplyDeletePKX is involved in the fuel cell mania as well, helped to finance a power plant in Korea:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/worlds-largest-fuel-cell-park-142216067.html
Munger owns(ed?) PKX "POSCO (PKX)
DeleteThe only non-financial and non-U.S. stock in the Daily Journal portfolio, Munger owns 64,600 shares of POSCO, worth 4.2% of the portfolio.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/charlie-mungers-portfolio-221857510.html
But 90% of the portfolio is in WFC and BAC - financials are still good to own.
DeleteMost definitely financials are good to own, these guys (smart(er) money?) swooped in and bought up all the good stuff using free money? :)
DeleteWES - These guys transport natural gas, right? So for instance if natty is $25 in Illinois and $3 in Houston then conceptually speaking, they can turn a few valves and collect the spread, right?
ReplyDeleteOSTK - Accepts Bitcoins as payment.
ReplyDeleteLa-Z-Boy - Whatever happened to that trade?
ReplyDeleteIt's probably kicking ass.
DeleteNES, no surprise here. Another disaster.
ReplyDeleteI'll echo comments by Port and Mark- nothing really looks good, and I'm tired of trading. Plan to take RSX/PBR/EWZ off the table on Tuesday, win or lose. If the EM sector can't get going tonight, it will have lost momentum once more, and that's too many times in the past two months.
ReplyDeleteTOF,
ReplyDeleteI agree that a balanced budget would take a lot of the rational behind owning gold out of the picture. But, my hardcore gold bug friend won't believe it anyhow!
Mark - pull up a 3 year chart of MWA. when did we trade it? 2012?
ReplyDeleteJeff Saut is one of the best strategists around these days and the only one I read every week.
ReplyDeleteYeah he's pretty good. I remember reading Todd Harrison's writings almost mocking Saut for being wildly bullish 2 or 3 years ago.
DeleteI need to remind myself every once in awhile that there are no guarantees our portfolios increase in value every quarter, every year, or every 5 years. I tend to brood over stuff that just isn't realistic. No team wins every game. No life story unfolds without setbacks. No success occurs without failures along the way. No battle is won without defeats. I need to learn to love the losses. Suck it up. Take the pain.
ReplyDeleteAs I often point out to others (while forgetting to listen myself)>
DeleteWe live in the US. We all earn enough/have earned enough to be trading the capital markets. If the portfolio takes an occasional hit, embrace it. Complaints? Take it up with Prakesh. http://www2.ljworld.com/photos/2010/oct/31/201582/
"No. Faith is a gift from God. Faith is partly innate, which is to say we're born with it. I can attest to that, as I recall 'talking' to God even before attending church. Faith is also strengthened by hearing the Word of God. In my case, all it took was one sermon."
ReplyDeleteIn 2008 I almost accepted a job with Goldman Sachs that would have moved me from San Diego to Salt Lake City. But I decided in part not to do it because I had a strong feeling come over me when I came back from the interview that I would soon meet my future wife. I was single at the time and not really looking to settle down at all...in fact my main goal was to have a girlfriend for each night of the week. I met my wife 6 weeks later and we were engaged within 2 years. My wife and her family are firm believers.
For the past 5 years I've tried to rationalize this feeling, researching the Bible and finding a lot of errors that proved to me that the whole story around Jesus was fabricated. But I still believe God created the universe and I still think that feeling I got was from God. I don't know how to reconcile the two.
We tend to find what we look for. Look for 'errors,' and you'll find them! The human mind is an incredible thing. People talk themselves into leaving their families every day. Paint themselves into corners. Rationalize abuse and self-destruction.
DeleteI think it's easy to believe in God. And if there appear to be inconsistencies in the Bible, wtf. You what I think? If I fail to understand something- it's me, not Him.
Yeah I completely agree.
DeleteNat Gas pulled back right to prior resistance: $4.5
ReplyDelete'..my main goal was to have a girlfriend for each night of the week.' Perspective is everything. My perspective would be an exponential increase in exposure to STDs, many with the capacity to ruin your life. Each one of those girlfriends would be likely to have had multiple partners, including a few you wouldn't want to know about. And each of those partners would in turn have been likely to be involved in even riskier behavior. I think God saved you in more ways than one, bro.
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/03/10/dont-worry-about-the-china-data-its-gonna-be-ok/?mod=MW_latest_news
ReplyDeleteIt's stuff like the above that worry me.
Remember May 2008? I posted comments each morning from a cruise ship that took us to five islands in five days. My portfolio was at an all-time high.
ReplyDeleteIt was several months later before the US markets tumbled.
Had I cashed out in May and stayed in cash for the next ten months, I would have side-stepped the worst decline I will likely experience in my lifetime. (Instead, I day traded the short side through the final months of the rally, made a little money when the market declined in October, then lost a great deal of money trying to time the bottom.)
Now it's March 2014. I 'kind of' sense it might pay off to cash out for awhile. I just don't know if I can stay out of my own way.
Just off Skype with Prakesh, who set me straight. 'Dude, you give up more in trading fees than I'll earn in my lifetime. Cash out for a few months? I don't really give a ----. Do you know what time it is here?'
DeleteMy understanding is, hydrogen is still expensive. So it appears maybe FCEL can convert natty (impressive the fuel cells aren't choked by the carbon) well enough to maybe make a profit? This is the second company that claims they can do this.
ReplyDeleteCPST - These guys definitely can help natty producers meet 2015 EPA emission requirements to eliminate flaring(not sure exactly what this means, what exactly EPA's expectation is), maybe conventional reciprocating gensets can do this as well, but the turbines may be a better solution. Gaxprom has been buying the turbines as well, so it seems gas producers are evaluating microturbines.
GNRC makes reciprocating gensets probably capable of meeting the needs of natty producers, cheaper but probably noisier and more maintenance intensive.
2nd,
ReplyDeleteI still believe it is too hard to get in / get out like you are discussing. Sure, it would have been great to see everything at the 2008 highs, then buy in at the March, 2009 lows, but that is really not possible. I don't think anyone did - at all. I see investing as a spectrum where you increase your exposure as risk goes down and decrease your exposure as risk goes up. I do this by judging stock valuations, buying more when they are cheap, but they are many ways.
Reality is, no-one know what is going to happen. It's all about playing the odds and no need to make all or nothing bets.
Great article on the reformed broker today about how hard the market has been the last 5 years, but how the market prognosticators make it sound like it was so easy in hindsight - dead on!
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2014/03/10/the-easy-money-myth/
Want a good laugh? The first time I read the above article my mind misread the line 'investors have dealt with a non-functioning congress' as 'investors have dealt with a non-functioning compass!'
DeleteHe's right, though.
DeleteAnd so are you.
DeleteWe've definitely had to stiff-arm Hussman.
DeleteMy "compass" still works great! :)
DeleteI really don't get why Hussman still seems to be so well respected as a fund manager. I know he did well when his fund came out (great market timing!) and get that he is a very smart economist, but his flagship Strategic Growth Fund is below it's issue price.
DeleteIf you graph Hussman's fund for 10 years, it is down 35% and the S&P is up 65%. Wonder how he keeps his investors?
After Jan 1, 2015 perform “Gas Well” Hydraulic Fracturing using reduced emissions completions (REC)/green completions:
ReplyDeleteroute the recovered liquids into one or more storage vessels or re-inject the, recovered liquids into a well;
route the recovered gas into a gas flow line or collection system, re-inject the recovered gas into a well, use the recovered gas as an on-site fuel source, or
use the recovered gas in place of a purchased fuel or raw material, with no direct release to the atmosphere.
CECE - If EPA is cracking down on industrial emissions (Or US industrial base should grow based on energy supply, right), this company is bound to receive orders to supply remediation equipment.
ReplyDeleteSVM - Volume picked up, 0.02 from 52wk low
ReplyDeleteThat's book value.
DeleteGPL - Looks like it might shoot off the handle?
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) +19 1562
ReplyDeleteFLWS - Picked up a few shares @ $5.42.
ReplyDeleteIPE - Have a look at this chart, will it move back up?
BALT - Guess I should'a loaded more of this one too, LOL
ReplyDeleteRead some SA stuff this morning. I wonder if it's possible we are only in the denial stage of a bull markrt?
ReplyDeleteOffed RSX, EWZ, and PBR for minor losses. Scaling into HDGE @ 12.70.
ReplyDeleteSome support for the possibility we're only in the beginning stages of a bull market:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-top-5-advisers-since-october-2007-top-2014-03-11
Since 2000, the Wilshire has only averaged an annual return of +3.6%!
On the other hand MS's Adam Parker is bullish. Just saying.
DeleteSpring makes me feel good, winter makes me grouchy.
DeleteFLWS - I believe this one's headed up, up, up....
It's easy to cherry pick undoes of time to support someone's view of the performance of the market. What were annualized returns from 82 to 2000? Or 82 to today?
Deletewtf spell check. Undoes is supposed to be periods
DeleteELNK ???
ReplyDeleteKWK - What do you think?
ReplyDeleteGTAT announced a new poly agreement with Cosmos Chemical Berhad for $336M. The plant is eventually capable of 25K MTA output. We view this news as a positive and it boosts out CY16E EPS by $0.16. Highlights GTAT is more than just an AAPL supplier. Reiterate Buy rating. We adjust our estimates and raise price objective to $21.50 from $18.50.
ReplyDeleteCIA investigating Congress's investigation of the CIA......
ReplyDeleteAdded one more Jesse's "super stock" to my portfolio, ALTI, which seems to be making a "cup-n-handle" pattern now, with a breakout target above the October peak of $8...
ReplyDeleteYep, I can see how that one might pop.
DeleteI almost bought OPTT yesterday. Bad call
ReplyDeleteOh damn, I like that chart, too.... Why not post these thoughts?????
DeleteI came down with a gnarly cold the past two days so I've been pretty laid up. Sorry
DeleteCopper - Load up at $2.04, assuming it happens
ReplyDelete"The monthly and weekly graphs below display a possible descending triangle in Copper dating back to the late 2011 low or mid 2011 high, depending upon how the upper boundary is drawn. A decisive close below $3.00 would complete this pattern and generate a target as low as $2.04."
http://peterlbrandt.com/copper-copper-topper/
SCCO - Good example of a bull flag that looks to have failed, but the recent ih&s did bear fruit.
ReplyDeleteFLWS - Going to the $20's?
ReplyDeleteOK so China is in a world of pain right? Why is CAT, AKS, and X not confirming this? Too soon to judge?
ReplyDeleteCP, My target for FLWS would be more around $11, depending on what happens with the business.
ReplyDeleteMark,
ReplyDeleteHard to know for sure about the bull market, but if I was going to guess, I'd say the market consolidation period ended in 2009 and we are just into the start of one of those 15 year bull markets that you see in the long term charts. Of course, we'll get some small bear markets along the way, but overall, I'd say we go up.
I also don't see anything that would kill the bull market in the next year or two like an overheated or unbalanced economy, high inflation, commodity crisis, rising interest rates, etc.
Copper now down 9% in the last 3 days mainly due to worries about China demand.
ReplyDeleteStill watching LUN.TO and it's pulled back some, but still up 25% from mid-December. I'd like to see it pull back to the $4.00 range - maybe with Copper dropping, it get there.
Baltic Dry Index climbs to 1,580 , up 18 - Not sure why Drys site wasn't updated
ReplyDeleteBALT - Back to mid-day bottoms, that hasn't happened in a while.
ReplyDeleteTough, tough market to trade.
ReplyDeleteWell, when is it not tough?
DeleteDamn! My positions are in the green!
DeleteCool! :) Now go treat yourself to the movie "Paul", the one about the guy from Area 51!
DeleteI'm stuck in weird-out purgatory with 'The Returned' until this weekend.
DeleteFCEL - Oh no!!!!!
ReplyDeleteELNK - Experiencing difficulty again, seems like perhaps they're experiencing trouble implementing the "major upgrade" they blew tons of money on. Don't ask about the detail, I have none.
ReplyDeleteFNMA down 42%. Oh my!
ReplyDeleteOh, what a surprise! And to think I thought it was going to $20, everything's going there! :)
DeleteAll I've heard so far is, the GSE's can't finance loans unless the buyer has 5% equity
Deleteanyone buying PLUG for a bounce?
ReplyDeleteLong PLUG at $6.26. Small amount.
ReplyDeleteMy only thinking is shorts / put buyers will cover into the close.
DeleteDoubled down on ALTI at $5.25, picked up more STV at $2.75 -- the simultaneous dump in these stocks seems a bit suspicious...
ReplyDeleteSORL is also being dumped mid-day... What's going on with the Chinese stocks today? Does anyone have an idea?
DeleteMy guess is the negative trade balance, and there were three loan defaults (free market style!) surrounding copper. Or so that's what we're being told, so we'll sell the stuff we bought higher?
DeleteSold PLUG at $6.42
ReplyDeleteS&P 500 down a nasty 1.1% from all time highs on latest fears:
ReplyDeleteUkraine
China coming apart at the seams
Copper tanking
not to mention massive bubble moves in a huge part of the market (yes, the alt energy stocks, which make up about 1% of the overall market).
To me it just seems like sector rotation.
Plus the S&P 500 and most indexes (RSP especially) seem to just like riding their upward channels for the last year or so. In early Feb, we were at the bottom and people were getting overly worried, but we went up even with bad news. Now we are at the top, and the market is starting to pullback on news. I see it as just people getting played by the market and the wall of worry staying intact and money going from the amateurs to the pros.
DeleteI'm seeing a lot of strength in regional bank stocks.
DeleteANGO - Ripped back up
ReplyDeleteDavid, seems to be some bad news coming out of China with regards to some of their investment fund and debts, as well as their export numbers were way off this month (although part of that may be calendar related).
ReplyDeleteSo, you've probably got some big macro sellers out there, plus people have profits to protect in a lot of these stocks which tends to lead to fast selling. Plus, SORL at least, is quite a volatile stock in general, so that doesn't help.
I'm pretty happy holding SORL - it seems legit, business is good and I think it gets back up to at least $8.00 which would be 80% of Book Value and about 10 times a growing earnings stream (it has a 7 p/e now).
I've been reading a bit about Seth Klarman because he has gotten a lot of press coverage lately - saying the market is very overvalued. It seems to me like he is paying a lot of attention to macro stuff (and has been doing so for the past 3 years) which seems odd to me because he's supposedly a value investor and interested more in value of individual companies.
ReplyDeleteYeah. It's interesting because he is a smart guy, but I read his book and i dont recall any macro stuff. He spent a lot of time on distressed secuities and thrift convrsions, so maybe there's nothing in his wheelhouse?
DeleteI pulled up articles / interviews of him from 2010/2011 and he was talking a lot about Europe/Greece etc. Just seemed odd to me. He was bearish/cautious when the S&P was at 1100.
DeleteSo none of us opened FNMA down -42% on tof's alert in order to pick up a quick +12% by close?
ReplyDeleteJust heard there's a bill to wind them down. Not sure what the replacements might be, no mention of that.
DeleteBasement update in t-4 beers...
ReplyDeleteSo 530 pm?
DeleteCitroen rated PLUG a sell, said it's worth maybe $0.50 LOL! And I thought they only picked on Chinese stocks.
ReplyDeleteThat's what analysts don't get. No one trades on price targets. They trade on sentiment targets. Like Meeker's $1000 PT for Yahoo based on page views.
DeleteBWEN - Broadwind broke out of a beautiful cup and handle last summer on the weakly . I used to trade it . Now sorry I did not hold it. Still not trading . Holding NSPH and a handful of others including GEVO . Micro-caps..
ReplyDeleteIt's unclear to me, what exactly you see in those two. I rather figured you'd be more geared towards stocking all the world's new fleet of aircraft carriers with whirlybirds and fighter jets.
Deletehttp://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/San-Francisco-Firefighters-Battling-2-Alarm-Blaze-249651571.html
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.marketwatch.com/themargin/2014/03/11/massive-fire-blazes-near-san-franciscos-att-park/?mod=MW_latest_news
DeleteFBP - Puertorican bank, the Puertorican government bond sale today was over subscribed. I'm not sure in which currency the coupons were denominated.
ReplyDeleteSorry to let you guys down. Maybe tomorrow.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-12/india-proves-last-bric-standing-as-modi-boosts-stocks.html
ReplyDeleteIndia’s individual investors still have room to boost stock holdings, which account for less than 6 percent of their assets, according to Nilesh Shah, chief executive officer at Axis Capital Ltd. Some of that money may get shifted out of gold, a traditional store of wealth for Indian households. Prices of the precious metal tumbled 15 percent during the past year while India increased import taxes three times last year.
In Japan, which has Asia’s biggest stock market, 8.5 percent of household assets are invested in equities, according to the central bank. That compares with 33 percent in the U.S. and 16 percent in the euro zone.
Re Copper from TD. SO it may or may not be a buying opportunity. The report shows that LUN.TO's Net Asset Value drops from $5.93 to $4.77, so I'm still waiting to get it down around $4.00.
ReplyDeleteIn light of the sharp decline in copper price over the past few days, we have outlined
our NAV sensitivities for a 10% decline in the TD copper price deck (Exhibit 1).
Copper price has dropped below the US$3.00/lb level for the first time in four years,
sparked by fears that the Chinese copper carry trade could be coming to an end. In
summary, speculators in China have been using copper as collateral for lower interest
loans. The concern is that with the government clamping down on credit, there could
be a flood of copper ready to hit the market. Bonded warehouse and Shanghai Future
Exchange stocks have climbed sharply year-to-date.
Although it is impossible for us to know if the carry trade is in fact over, copper
supply/demand fundamentals look relatively tight over the medium to longer
term, in our opinion. Surpluses this year are forecast at 200–300kt, which could
shrink substantially if Indonesia does not act to lift export tariffs on copper
concentrates from Freeport’s Grasberg mine and Newmont’s Batu Hijau operation. In
addition, over the medium term, copper supply is expected to get tight even with
Chinese demand growth expected to slow to 5%–6% per annum.