Trading is a brutal sport. I have a great deal of respect for traders who lay it on the line, because we all get hit on a regular basis.
The Glass House retains its place in my mind as the best of the prison film genre. It's realistic, well written (I see Capote wrote the screenplay), and hits hard.
The sentiment cycle reliably plays out, over and over again. Note how last week we were convinced the markets were headed lower. This afternoon it 'feels' like we're headed higher. Buy the former, sell the latter.
ReplyDeleteYeah its nuts man. Good luck with the HDGE. Lots of China stocks did well today. The bull in that sector is alive and well, much to the chagrin of the common view that China is a house of cards. Maybe it is but their ADRs got too beaten down to reflect something in the middle of the two views.
DeleteI'm still thinking what we are seeing is more just rotation from overvalued stocks to undervalued. I guess if you were in some of the high flyers that trade more on hopes and dreams (and sentiment you could say), they'd be reason to be worried, but overall, I think you are just going to see money coming out of some of these and potentially the overall US market as it is one of the most expensive and move into cheaper stocks, often in other countries.
DeleteBB - I think risk is definitely elevated in the US markets. Part of me wonders how all of this ridiculous stimulus is going to shake out - I think Icahn could be right that we may have a day of reckoning but that's really hard to predict as far as timing goes and the technical picture should become clear before that happens unless we get a really rapid crash. But typically you can spot weakness in advance...just have to be ready for it.
DeleteThe Shanghai looks like it's bottoming but I've definitely seen my fair share of these exact same bottoming patterns that end up failing. Think coal, steel, shippers, and even solars. They all ended up breaking through obvious support when the weekly patterns were setting up. Funny all of those sectors are heavily tied to China. The only one with an across the board rally so far has been the solars. The next best is probably the shippers but several of them are still hurting badly.
Having said all of this, I do think that Doc is right about the Chinese ADRs. Many of them were beaten down so badly that they will recover over time...and there is the potential that investors warm up to them fully and price them like any other asset class. ONP, for example, trades at 1/4 book and only 3.3X earnings. They pay a small fractional dividend and were cleared by the SEC after an investigation into their business. Let's say it trades at either 1X book or 10X earnings. That equates to a 200% to 300% return from here. There are many other examples like this one.
Deletehttp://www.tickerspy.com/index/China-Stocks-and-ADRs
Deleteneedless to say, the performance of China ADRs speaks for itself. Past 6- 9 month alone this sector outperformed massive. Based on plenty of monthly charts, the upside is enormous given the fact that the average retail investor is not even remotely interested in China stocks
Right I completely agree. Consider the sentiment of all of us. Most of us wouldn't touch these things
DeleteI was smashed on two of those Chinese ADR's when Fuckin' Muddy Waters put on shorts then started creating fear. May as well trade something that moves based on thickness of the ozone layer, like gold.
DeleteAnd Zero Hedge cheered MW, bashing Chinese stocks. I learned there are too many real reasons to put money that I worked all my life to earn, into them. They can burn in hell along with MW.
DeleteCan we make if official YRCW is never discussed at this end of the bar again?
ReplyDeleteMy only sale that has proved correct so far is ANR.
Once the drinking starts, there can be no guarantees. We'll do our best.
DeleteAll I can ask for.
DeleteAs Gayed would say, it's Shanglower and Heng Higher at the open.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-03-18/the-czar-s-speech-putin-takes-crimea
ReplyDeleteGood read, hope Crimeans got what they wanted but it occurs to me there's a possibility Russia is being annexed.
DeleteGALE is right back where I last traded it.
ReplyDeleteI don't know what it is but BID (Sotheby's) has almost always mirrored the overall market for the past 25 years. I guess the art market goes hand in hand with rising/falling wealth. It's been breaking down for the past 2 months.
ReplyDeleteRoll over, range trading or knockout?
Deletehttp://chinwagtraders.com/article/gulf-resources---long
ReplyDeleteI'd like to see a test of the 200 @ 2.07ish.
DeleteCopper breaking down again this morning. Another reason to avoid china based infrastructure plays and focus on domestic demand plays as they transition their economy to a less export driven economy
ReplyDeleteBrandt is shorting copper, it's priced historically high (my belief).
DeleteReally ? From what price? That usually means the pullback is over. I haven't seen him make a ton of correct calls
DeleteI dunno, he doesn't seem too bad to me. Many chart patterns fail, so maybe it seems that way.
DeleteCanadian dollar - Peter Brandt's trying to short the CD
ReplyDeleteKWK- CP, I know it's just a trade, but I'd stay away from this one. Something wrong with mang.
ReplyDeleteOkay, maybe you're right. Those boys out there in Midland do tend to have bizarre attitudes (understandable, they live in the land of 1000 mirages) but certainly not suicidal.
DeleteNSPH- Delayed reaction to news?
ReplyDeleteIt appears that way, someone was hoping for enthusiasm and gave up. Thus once they're done selling their position the price will probably rise?
DeleteBALT - Morning momo chasers getting hammered by the HFT's
ReplyDeleteCXO - Double top, triple tops are low probability.
ReplyDeleteMark, what's the story on the gulf oil exploration, are they dead in the water now or something? So many of these seem beat up badly, does this mean the shales like Concho will be the huge winner?
ReplyDeleteTXT - I sure wish I hadn't given up on this one eventually rising.
ReplyDeletePerhaps in support of the bear case, mREIT's have been lifting.
ReplyDeleteBALT - Okay, maybe this one isn't a hot stock to own..... Only Chinese ADR's are the hot stocks, in which case I stop investing.
ReplyDeletehaha too funny.
DeleteRobot still short from 1873, 3/7/13
ReplyDelete1874 - Strong resistance level
ReplyDeleteFLWS - Has the move begun? Unfortunately I only accumulated a 1/2 position b/c my stink bid wasn't hit. Potential $20 target?
ReplyDeleteGURE: Mark, $2ish does look like a good target area. Lots of support down there. Probably would need some sort of outside news to get it that low though. Maybe another Muddy Waters BS hit piece on a China stock?
ReplyDeleteWhat's UP with FSLR this morning? I do have calls on it, you know. :) They haven't doubled yet, but once FSLR gets to $70 (which shouldn't take long, given its excellent-looking chart since the 2012 bottom, those calls should double.
ReplyDeleteForgot to mention that STV hit my sell limit at $3.25 for the shares I added at $2.75 when all Chinese stocks had collapsed last week. I had also added ALTI at $5.25 on that day, but it didn't recover sufficiently yet (have a sell limit at $6.25 on that one).
ReplyDeleteFolks, for those who missed getting into SCON right after Jesse's letter, today might be a good day to do it, as SCON is testing the bottom of its upward channel on the 1-month intraday chart...
ReplyDeleteRight on cue - Copper rallied hard. Wonder if Brandt covered.
ReplyDeleteI don't think he's short yet, he's waiting for some futures contracts to price?
DeleteBut if you're short the Us market, wouldn't you also be bearish copper?
Deletezero correlation between SPY and CCJ. Lots of people assume incorrectly that it's correlated. I'd say its a tell on the China demand spectrum changing. I think we should consider that as a tell that they're changing from export driver to consumer driven.
DeleteNCR - Not bad, eh? Now can it break out of trend at the 50SMA?
ReplyDeleteSVM - This one probably pops up from here.
Sold my position in Canam Group (CAM.TO) today. They are a steel bending company in Canada with most of their operations in the US. They've gone from $3 to $15 in the last 2 years and are now at all-time highs and really need a better economy to keep going up. I've actually been waking up at night thinking about the odds of this, so decided just to sell and move on and find something cheaper. You know its time to sell when it is not letting you sleep!
ReplyDeleteIn that case, how about FAST?
Deletewow great job. was it a big position?
DeleteAverage size for me - about 3%, but I sold half last year when it got over $10, then the rest today at $14.65. My cost was $4.15. But it was one of those that I followed for 2 or 3 years before buying into the late 2011 /early 2012 weakness - patience does pay sometimes!
DeleteELNK - Market cap is $396M, p/s 0.31 is that really fair value?
ReplyDeleteNIHD - This one did in fact dip under $1, so that was a great call of Mark's
ReplyDeleteALSK - Big enough dip? I have no idea why I still look at this one occasionally, maybe b/c it's not an ADR?
ReplyDeleteThe only thing I remember from when I did research on that one was they had huge convertibles out there. Not unlike YRCW but if you accounted for them there wasn't a ton of upside in my opinion.
DeleteYou're probably exactly right, no idea why this ticker sticks in my head like a bad song, LOL!
DeleteCPST - Brandt has done fairly well with this one so far, purely a chart-based trade and I get the impression no consideration for fundies. EXTR - Basically the same thing, but if you think about it the fundies of a dense switch probably isn't enough to bet on as there's no magic involved. Somebody has to burn natty gas and why not rotate a shaft while doing it? Magnetic bearings in a miniature gas turbine using 90% heat recovery is good tech, good enough for the Reagan Library for many years (decades?) now. GE could easily do this too, basically any turbine mfr, but why not buy CPST out since the design is proven? Just sayin'
ReplyDeleteZGNX - Sure looks like support is holding up so far..... Betcha (I hope to heck!) FDA doesn't cancel the approval.
ReplyDeletePRMW is one I've been waiting on the sidelines for what seems like forever. Great example of not allowing a good entry pt
ReplyDeleteDowntown Josh Brown @ReformedBroker
ReplyDeleteWILL MOVE FROM DATA DEPENDENCE TO FULL-ON HOROSCOPE SH*T - statement
Joseph Fahmy @jfahmy
Fade the 3rd move, then buy the 4th move...Omaha! Omaha!
CP, see anything on FLWS? Seemed to take off around 11:30 today?
ReplyDeleteThinking about it some more, I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the big guys take them out. Amazon was trying to get into flowers, but without much success and these guys would be a tiny morsel for AMZN.
Yeah, I haven't caught anything out of the ordinary just a few bars on the chart. Of course we'll be the last to discover positive news such as a takeover, such a possibility is not to be discarded!
DeleteStocks seem to be down on the news rate hikes are coming sooner. Think this is a false downtrade and people will quickly realize that it means the economy is getting better, so will drive more profits.
ReplyDeleteMET took a nice bounce on the news as higher rates help life insurers.
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) +52 1570
ReplyDeleteTOF, hey dude: "zero correlation between SPY and CCJ." You must mean JJC???? CCJ is uranium mining!!!!!
ReplyDeletehaha yeah sorry about that.
DeleteProbably the strongest correlation would be with home construction?
DeleteBALT - I was trying to sell my second half on the pop this morning in hopes for a reload lower but the price was falling faster than I could react till I gave up on the idea and began looking for opportunities to reload the half I sold yesterday, LOL...
ReplyDeleteWhat's a mother to do with her eggs?
well as long as it holds above $6.4 then I think you're good. If it doesn't sell without asking any questions.
DeleteDon't take this personally ladies but I don't think the market likes it when a broad tries to teach them a lesson.
ReplyDeleteSilver - Alright, this time I think if silver gets beat under $20, I'm going to throw some in the buckboard for giggles. Surely that's near cost of production and as miners run out of cash the habit of production at a loss should mitigate. This of course is based on the assumption the solar industry still uses silver paste to make circuit traces The NRG top-skim version of silicon production could destroy thin film deposition, and the top-skim method still would use silver paste, I think, not absolutely certain.
ReplyDeleteELNK - Look at the recent volume guys, something tells me this one's gonna run from $3.79 ????
Well, FSLR is already at $70, which was my price target, since this price lies on the line connecting its 2 previous highs in mid and late 2013. So I decided to sell my calls, which have almost doubled. Made 1K on them. My initial position was small, as I am trying to constrain myself from putting more than 1K into calls on any company.
ReplyDeleteExcellent. I really do think you should consider staying away from options though. They are the fastest way to the poor house, not to be confused with the pour house. I hear 2nd is tending tonight after a stellar week.
DeleteVALE says don't bet against Chinese demand for iron ore.
ReplyDeleteHow true is this, and what does it mean for us?
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/ceo-optimism-on-the-rise--how-to-play-a-cap-ex-boom-151212604.html?l=1
new post
ReplyDeleteGrab your balls and sell calls fellas.
ReplyDeleteTons of fun out there today, Yellen must've brought on a few frowns? Good for $US but who wasn't anticipating a rebound anyway? UUP stopped at the 20SMA, I say it moves up through.
ReplyDelete