Janet Yellen sends the markets down
screaming with her first FOMC announcement.
Bonds are down (TLT -1%), stocks are down (SPX -0.5%), Emerging Markets
are down (EEM -2%), gold is down (GDX -3%).
Basically, we’re likely to see rate hikes
faster and sooner.
Grab your balls and sell calls fellas. Still holding big position in TZA and wondering if we get a crash.
ReplyDeleteBalls, tof. Congrats.
DeleteTaking HDGE off here. Coulda had a V8!
DeleteI totally get the urge to sell it man. The technicals were showing a rollover going into this week. If this holds here it looks quite ugly technically. But it could always be just another blip.
DeleteThe afternoon reaction on Fed day (or any data point announcement) is all about how people were leaning versus the actual announcement. Even though I am wrong so far on the market reaction, I think we will be up in a day or two as people give this a little more serious thought.
ReplyDeletePlus, if Paul B. Farrell is calling for a crash, it can't happen:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-doomsday-poll-999-risk-of-2014-crash-2014-03-15?link=kiosk
That guy is so desperate for page views
DeleteWorst guy in financial journalism I think
DeleteYep, another huge crash in progress just like all the preceding crashes.....
DeleteMan, I sure wish I'd bought TZA on the test of 1874 !!!!
ReplyDeleteTUR - I have a stink bid at $40, just in case.
ReplyDeleteBSBR - Still in the green today, FWIW !!! In light of this, thinking this puppy must be destined for upside.
NLY - Boy, this baby got hit...... WTF, I guess rates shot up or down or something?
ISR. Wife opened @ 1.90 this morning. Just sayin'...
ReplyDeleteWow, she's buying then.
DeleteWow - we need to get her talking her trade on this board!
DeleteOff @ 2.93. Just in ----ing time, if you ask me.
DeleteShe emailed me this morning to say she was 'chasing' a stock. I replied, 'Good luck.' wtf.
Deleteholy shit.
DeleteProof chasing pays off !!!! :)
DeleteI'm up $5.00!!!!
ReplyDeleteCP, what did you get FLWS at?
ReplyDeleteI bought a half position at $5.42, b/c someone kept buying around there and it wouldn't drop any lower.
DeleteInteresting - was strong all day and finsihed strong - ignored the whole Fed thing. I guess we'll find out if there really is anything in the next few days or weeks.
DeleteMaybe it was waiting for the FED thing, the move corresponds too closely?
DeleteI did sell some TZA at $14.96 and bought it back at $14.83. Just lowering my cost. I still think the small caps are horribly overvalued and due for a sizeable mean reversion move.
ReplyDeleteI'm holding with a fairly clear stop in mind at this point (yesterday's highs). I have no idea what the market does. Just playing it on the technicals that I mentioned last week. We'll see if it has any follow through. Will be interesting to see how the EMs react to today's action by the Fed.
DeleteOne thing sentiment-wise - remember that 1929 parallel? I do find it funny that it's universally mocked now whereas 3 years ago it would have been headline news amongst traders. Not sure if that's exactly tradeable but it is interesting how people have changed. I read that it was completely taken out of context; that DeMark was asked by an interviewer which period most resembles the current one and he said 1929 was about 95% correlated but that he puts it at a very small chance of happening.
Yeah, it's always the things with a low probability of happening that worry me.
DeleteWell, some of my shit went up, some down, all in all my equities ended green 0.31%, including the gain on $US cash which is down 6.7% from the 52wk high, the port was up 0.54%
ReplyDeleteSo, backing out capital gains taxes it was a great day despite the odds! :)
Damn, bro. Now that's called 'stock selection.'
DeleteCP - Here is the best copper (JJC) correlation chart I've found:
ReplyDeletehttp://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_21180531.png?1395249936
Today's action was nice if you're a bull. I like the moves in the EM's today and am definitely warming up to starting a few positions. Still have really small positions in GPRC and STV that are basically meaningless.
My hunch is today was potentially a landmark day in terms of the US vs EMs. I think short IWM / long EEM is a good idea. Still pending further contemplation over a beer or two
DeleteMy interpretation of that chart suggests a high correlation to EM's, that probably explains your interest in copper. The 25 year chart is interesting, and there is an ih&s to consider:
Deletehttp://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/copper/all/
I don't know what to think of it entirely. Still trying to make my mind up about it. Have to do some more research on the emerging market valuations then match that up with the charts.
DeleteContemplating over a glass or two of 2 and 1/2 buck.
DeleteNLY - Notice this one back-tested support, so many orchestrated crashes makes me believe someone's been trying to scare off retail investors.
ReplyDeleteBSBR - Someone's been working diligently to keep this one from taking off too, my suspicion. Probably gaps up huge some day leaving interested parties to chase or remain on sidelines waiting for a gap fill that never materializes. Counting dividends, I'm near flat on this one so that's not too bad.
With the $US looking like it wants to take off (big maybe, and perhaps unlikely), wonder if US equities will actually rally and/or downside is limited as foreign money looks for a place to park cash?
Yellen - What does she plan on doing with the overnight rate that is so high banks can't justify lending?
My downside target on IWM, by the way, is around $103 to $105. Not sure how long it would take. If that doesn't hold then I think it could re-test the breakout around $86ish. First things first, though, needs to break below $115.
ReplyDeleteLong term chart of t-bill yields:
ReplyDeletehttp://peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/3.19_T_Bills_M.jpg
Cheapest stock markets:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/10610610/Worlds-cheapest-stock-markets-Where-are-shares-cheap.html
And here's another: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-cheapest-stock-markets-in-the-world-2013-3
DeleteFirst thing that came to mind when looking at that chart was NBG
DeleteMight be good. I haven't looked in a while, but they had some good business outside Greece too. Plus bad memories for me!
DeleteWhat I find interesting is how countries like Austria and Italy are near the top of both lists. I spent some time looking through both markets previously and nothing popped out, but may be worth another look. It's nice to invest in countries that have standard accounting and good rule of law.
From the perspective of rising rates, that should be boolish for $US and goolish for unhedged rate sensitive securities as well as commodities, right?
ReplyDeleteThis decision seems to favor short term investment, thus SRS popped:
"the Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday it will keep short-term interest rates near zero while continuing to taper its monthly purchases of long-term bonds."
Here's my take.
ReplyDelete(a) No one believes we're headed for 1929. That immediately raises the probability 2-3 fold, IMO.
(b) However, global Central Banks would never allow that to happen.
(c) So a 2010 scenario (-20%, or -22% just to ---- with us) is my best guess.
(d) Russia. The initial invasion was an easy fade. Now? Not so sure. Escalation could easily rattle markets profoundly.
(e) China. I've been writing for years that China needs to square its problems with pollution, overbuilding/a housing 'bubble,' and currency manipulation. It may be time to shake the carpet.
In any case, I have a hard time thinking markets do not correct.
Greenspan and Bernanke were typical guys. It's up to Yellen to clean house, and she's tossed the two White Knights into the dungeon.
ReplyDeleteG&B were enablers of TBTF, IMO.
DeleteIt will never be GB & Y.
DeleteTM - Found guilty of fraudulent automotive sales practices?
ReplyDeleteI mentioned this to Jesse yesterday...I thought the dollar was ready to rally, possibly significantly in the short term. I have no idea if this rally holds but if you think about how the rally in Nat Gas progressed, I think you can see potentially significantly higher levels for the dollar in the near/medium term....maybe to 85 but possibly as high as 87 to 90 for /DX. There have been a series of higher lows since 2008 and an attempt at a resumption of the longer term down trend since last July. Short positions have built up really high recently. I think this is something we may need to seriously consider and how it would impact certain sectors etc. I've just been looking at the potential move itself and not really the impact...anyone have any first stabs?
ReplyDeleteWho cares what the FED does, there's too much significance assigned to their programs?
Delete'By using this site, you agree that Greenfield / Cara Media, its principals and affiliated companies are not liable for any content related investment decisions that you may make.' Amen, bro.
ReplyDeleteThat was my first stab.
DeleteDamn. EEM closed down -2.13%. RYWVX? Closed down just -1.15%. RYWVX must be heavily weighted towards South America (EWZ closed green).
ReplyDeleteyou dodged a friggin bullet. i love it!
DeleteHow'd ARAX, or whatever that thing was, do today? I guess not so well if they were long T's....
DeleteATACX -0.82%
DeleteMy first reaction to this move that I see coming up in the dollar is there's a heightened chance of a recession / pullback in markets.
ReplyDeleteMy sense is go long cash (obviously). uup works. I wonder what else might work.
DeleteHow about coal (BHP/WLT/ANR/ACI)? or UUP, TBT, SRS, TZA, who knows! :)
DeleteShorting gold basically same play.
Delete2nd, pretty sure rydex has a long/short dollar funds, if interested just check for ST fees, just in case.
RYSBX. My kind of chart.
DeleteYou guys see FSLR today?
ReplyDeleteHoly xxxx!
DeleteMUX- talk about a crowded exit.
ReplyDeleteLooks like back-testing support at the 50SMA?
DeleteYeah, but shit. Who would try and catch that? Wow.
DeleteI think silver needs to take another dip under $20 then something silver is worth buying (SLW?). I was hoping for near $15 but that's probably expecting too much. I've grown to hate metals, LOL
DeleteBy the time silver's don taking everyone to the woodshed, maybe CXO will have come back to us? But JONE is closer as of now and it's already proceeding through the knockout phase?
JONE - The day to buy this one will be when it closes above the opening price.
ReplyDeleteMUX SUX. I'll be here all night
ReplyDeleteDUST - How about this one?
ReplyDeleteNASA - Remember when our NASA reviewed Toyota's computer-controlled throttle system and gave it a clean bill of health?
ReplyDeleteI don't think it was ever proved faulty was it?
DeleteMy understanding is yes, based on what I've read.
DeleteThis guy performed a thorough H/W, S/W analysis:
Deletehttp://embeddedgurus.com/barr-code/2013/10/an-update-on-toyota-and-unintended-acceleration/
TOF- Do you have to be?
ReplyDeleteHere's an interesting correlation tracker to play with but you get three shots/24hrs so edit the address for your tickers first before wasting your ops:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.macroaxis.com/invest/menu/pitchletHome/marketCorrelation?s=EWZ,CCJ,SPY,KOL,EEM,FXI,TUR&ot=table&mode=i
Here's another one:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/correlation-tracker/multiple-securities
In expectation of a pullback in the PM sector (due to the overwhelming bullishness in the COT reports), I am placing buy limit orders for PNPFF at $0.45 and $0.40, so as to reload the shares I sold at $0.50.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/historical-data/
The amount of gold held by GLD has now formed a clear U-shaped bottom, with the right wall being built as we speak. So another major demise in the PM sector is probably not in the cards. Most likely a pullback to be bought.
The weekly chard of the Canadian Venture index shows that a small pullback might take place soon, possibly to the 1000 level, but it seems pretty clear that the long downtrend is finally over, with 2013 marking the double bottom level. So, IMO, any pullbacks in PNPFF should be bought.
Be careful. If the dollar spikes gold is screwed
DeleteInteresting - I was playing cards last night and got talking to the one guy who is an mid-30's actuary about odds and stocks and stuff.
ReplyDeleteBecause he's an actuary, he had a good perspective on odds and percentages and applied that to cards and did well, but when it came to stocks, he said he was just sticking with the large-cap dividend payors and was afraid to go after "more risky" stocks. I told him that they had been great to hold, but are generally overvalued relative to the rest of the market, but he said he was OK with that as his cost basis is low. Of course, thinking about your cost basis is one of the biggest mistakes in investing, even though we all do it, but got to thinking if a young, smart, numbers-knowledgeable guy is still afraid of the broad market, how does the average guy feel? No wonder so many people are staying away or constantly looking for the next disaster in the market.
Be careful out there. If we do get a rally in the dollar could be rough sledding for stocks
DeleteAs for actuaries...Id bet they're more conservative in nature than anyone else, given that they're so close to numbers all day long. Just a hunch but that's my guess.
DeleteForgot to mention, I did end up buying that Transat Airlines stock (TRZ-B.TO).
ReplyDeleteIt's at 70% of book value (with some off-balance sheet financing, so a bit messy, but OK) and just had a big pullback on an earnings miss due to US$/C$ changes. But, it's often earned around $2.00 per share in the past, so if it could get back to this range, stock should go to $20. It's $8.65 now.
A bit risky due to the balance sheet, but should be good for at least a bounce back over the next few months and maybe a long term double or triple.
"We cut met coal forecasts sharply to $132/t for 2014E vs a prior $152, as we anticipate a $125/t Q2 met quarterly settlement. We cut our PO most for WLT to $2 from $8, highlighting liquidity risk. We stay at Underperform also for ACI and ANR. Met fundamentals remain challenging as high-cost producers in the U.S. keep mining for cash purposes, oversupplying the mkt."
ReplyDeleteBaltic Dry Index (BDI) +51 1621
ReplyDeleteShort IWM at $118.84
ReplyDeleteCP's boyz come out swinging.
ReplyDelete.A $2 pt. got WLT.
Yeah I saw that. Probably accurate.
DeleteCoal below cost, what a gift from these companies! :)
DeleteISR> Unbelievable.
ReplyDeleteOne stock I think could do well in the face of a dollar rally is SNE. Pretty simple:
ReplyDeleteUSD/JPY = USD to Japan currency ratio
If the numerator goes up, then the ratio goes up.
And if the denominator goes down then you get a double whammy.
Soooooo in a period where the USD/JPY shoots up, which is highly possible, then you get a situation where all goods made in Japan are cheap as balls to the rest of the world.
That's your 2nd testicular reference in as many days.
DeleteEven a horses balls are worth more than mine!
DeleteKB - Bottom of channel, @ support level. My concern is Japan's monetary policies are putting the squeeze on Korea, although they have excellent companies/products.
ReplyDeletePretty soon I'll be trading/tweeting from my basement...at least it's not in my parents house!
ReplyDeleteI'm working from a stash house.
DeleteSPX - Wohah, sHiT!
ReplyDeleteSo volatile right now.
DeleteMITK is getting pretty oversold here.
ReplyDeleteThey need to hurry up and get another equity raise in pronto!
DeletePEIX - $19 bull flag target?
ReplyDeleteSVM - Soon, this one will trade less than AUMN ?????
ReplyDeleteDid you hear the sirens in the background as POTUS is speaking? I can tell it's from DC, there are always vehicle sirens there. I guess they're hauling off some old geezer most of the time.
ReplyDeleteJJC - Cleanup on isle 9
ReplyDeleteXIN hasn't dropped much in 4 sessions..........
KONG - Where's Alfred little balls when ya need him?
I always thought it was isle 3?
DeleteIsle 3 is the dead meat isle!
DeleteI mean do these rallies not feel like bear rallies? Sucking people in with the belief that dip buying is the right thing to do. I'm biased so take it for what it's worth.
ReplyDeleteThe fact is the dollar is set to rally and that has big implications for the market.
DeleteThen again, markets never fall in March or April :)
Deletehttp://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2014/03/20/markets-dont-go-down-in-march-april/
Reading ZH is a bad habit!!!!!!
DeleteAgreed CP
DeleteThis is "The Fly" not ZH. ZH is as bad as that clown on Marketwatch
DeleteTOF,
ReplyDeleteI still have a tough time seeing why we get a major downturn. Sure, valuations are stretched in areas, but they are undervalued in others, so generally money won't leave the market due to valuations, just go to cheaper stocks unless there is nothing to buy.
The other thing that could cause a downturn would be a major bump in interest rates (not the small one we are seeing now) or inflation, which still seems non-existant. You could also get an old-style recession due to an inventory buildup, but I don't see any signs of that and with just-in-time everything, these are getting fewer and fewer.
A financial crisis could also do it, but I think that is the least likely given the recentness of the last one and the focus by so many to avoid another.
So that really the only thing that could cause a major pullback is something completely unexpected. And this could be driven by unexpected consequences of ultra-low rates and tapering or maybe something with Russia or maybe something else. But, in general, it doesn't pay to try and trade these types of events as it almost always causes you more in lost profits than you gains when it does happen.
So, because of this, I'm still positive on the markets. You may be right that the charts are showing something we aren't aware of yet. Or we made get a 5% or 8% pullback that I would see as an opportunity to shift into cheaper stocks. OR we may just charge on higher, in which case its good to have some exposure. Picking stocks which have good downside protection also helps me not worry too much.
DJII now back to where it was at 2:00 yesterday before the FED stuff. I think the short-sighted "higher rates are bad" view is being replaced by the more logical "higher rates due to a better economy are good" thought.
ReplyDeleteBrent - Yeah it's tough to say what will happen. Let's give it a little time I guess. I suspect a pullback will come from the paring back of excessive bullishness amongst traders. I do think the fact that the Fed is going to be fully committed to ending taper in a half a year is a game changer. I think more than anything it will change sentiment and that's what drove the Russell 2000 to 20X earnings and well above its highest price to sales ratio ever, including the 2000 and 2007 tops. I know the public isn't fully invested and that Consumer Sentiment is low which makes me think the bull market continues for a long time. Having said that, in 1980/81, consumer sentiment peaked in the upper 70's when the S&P went to 141, which was almost 20% higher than its prior peak in 1973. It then went down to the low 60's at the bottom of the 1982 mini-bear when the S&P dropped about 30%.
ReplyDeleteSo I guess I envision a similar scenario unfolding here. I think we will get a 9 to 18 month mini-bear market. I think traders will significantly cut back their bullishness now that they believe the Fed is committed to fully tapering within 6 months and potentially raising rates thereafter. It doesn't matter how low rates are...all that matters is the direction. My suspicion is if this unfolds then we will have a sideways to slightly downward trending market.
DeleteThis is my last post on this bc I don't want to sway you one way or the other. If you're holding for the long term it won't really matter if we get a 10 to 25% correction yet end up going to 2,500 then it doesn't really matter.
DeleteThis is from Tepper just four months ago...I think its definitely something to consider as this frames the views of a lot of big money and yesterday's seeming commitment to tapering does change things in my opinion strictly from a big money / hedge fund sentiment perspective:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101112707
" The Federal Reserve won't taper its bond-buying program for three or four months because of the Washington budget overhang, hedge fund titan David Tepper told CNBC on Tuesday.
The question, he said, now becomes: Will the Fed taper in March or June? I don't know now, he added, "they're not tapering for a long time now."
"So that's definitely sort of going to be a push-up to markets," Tepper said in a "Squawk Box" interview. "Generally speaking, markets will go up, [because] my basic belief has been when you have this large QE, markets go up." "
Look back to where the market was trading then when Tepper said this: 1,700 S&P and 1070 Russell 2000. I think those are fair targets to the downside for now. Maybe we go between 1700 and 1850ish for 6 months or so then we re-assess where things are???
DeleteThat's an interesting take TOF. I suppose I still agree. Now that 1860 is gone and you've added more short exposure, what's you stop now?
DeleteDon't stop posting on this TOF. It is always good to read other people's opinions, especially contrary ones. Too many people only read what support their position. And you are right - sometimes stocks just go down.
DeleteI think the other thing that sways me is my faith in the value of the stocks I hold. From 2000, when I started really trading my own stocks, I never had a portfolio pullback of 10% before the 2008 bear, even through the 2002/2003 bear market and never had a peak to trough of more than 6 months. I believe that is because the stocks I owned had good value and were able to move independently of the overall market.
I got crushed in the 2008 bear, but bounced back pretty quickly after that. I also had a portfolio drawdown of 12% lasting 6 months in the 2011 correction/mini-bear. But in both cases, buying into weakness proved to be correct longer term.
And I really don't see anything that bad happening in the next couple of years, so, for me, it makes more sense just to keep trying to upgrade my portfolio and not to try and time any pullback, unless I do think it isthe big one.
That's awesome man. Good to hear that your strategy does well throughout. I've personally had a lot of luck over the bull cycle since 2009...not sure what my annualized returns have been but it's probably north of 150-175%. That comes from a lot of risk taking, though. I've always tried to focus on undervalued stocks relative to projected earnings or book values (keeping in mind potential catalysts as well) but the key to my performance has definitely been taking concentrated risks - holding a max of 4 or so stocks at a time.
DeleteHaving said this, I've actually never really invested through a downturn before because I graduated college in 2000 and had no money and I quit my job and worked on my side business full time in 2007 so I again had no money to invest with. So I have this big unknown of how things would pan out in a downturn. Given what I think will be an elevated period of risk I'm contemplating either waiting for sizeable drops in stocks I prefer to own or going to cash or increasing the number of holdings I have to minimize risk.
You hold a lot of stocks right? About how many? Are you looking for stuff trading below book with profits? What's your strategy in general?
I usually hold about 40 stocks, so spread my risk. My approach has generated returns of 10% above the market pretty consistently. So, if we get a market going forward with 8% price appreciation, plus 2% dividends, I would expect to make about 20% annually, which is fine for me.
DeleteI am always looking to buy stocks on the cheap, with the potential and catalyst to go upwards. It is often a P/B approach, especially for financials, but I use many other like P/CF for energy stocks, EV/EBITDA and P/NAV for real estate, P/E for tech, consumer stocks, etc.
Basically, it is a buy cheap approach and look for a reversion to normal valuations. But I tweak it over time. In markets like 2009, I look for really beatup stocks with turnaround potential (so may have very little current valuation support, but good potential support). Now there is less opportunity for business improvement, so I'm looking for undervalued stocks with reasonable growth potential (a lot of financial stocks now) and fairly valued stocks with above market growth potential.
For someone who invests like you are, the key will be to recognize when the market turns and your approach is no longer working as you can lose money very quickly if you are wrong. I knew a lot of guys who made a ton of money in the dot-com bubble and pretty much every single one of them gave it all back as they didn't recognize this. It seemed that people either recognized it was a bubble and stayed away, or played aggressively all the way and down. Every style of trading goes in and out of fashion, and people often have a hard time recognizing this - I know I have made some big mistakes along the way.
I've actually always done well...as it turns out though I've invested in a downturn before and so I really don't know what my strategy would do. I don't envision going through a major downturn in my portfolio because of my strategy but I do recognize the need to revise my # of holdings now that I'm up to a significant amount of $$. Its harder to get in and out of positions if I have a couple of larges ones and I prefer to focus on small/mid cap stocks.
DeleteMy background is accounting so I've always had a really good grasp of value which is quite helpful. My strategy has always been to look at FCF / BV / Earnings relative to current valuations but I've picked up some other things along the way. I would have to imagine that this strategy would do fine in a sideways to down market. I guess my biggest challenge is getting over the mental hurdle of having faith that my strategy would work in bumpier markets.
Thanks for sharing your strategy. I love the balanced approach. I think 40 would be too many holdings for me because it's just too much to focus on but maybe that's the beauty of that approach. Any one holding wouldn't have a big impact on the overall portfolio and cause undue stress.
Makes sense. I wasn't trying to say you were playing a bubble, just that stocks than can go up fast can go down fast. What I missed in 2006 was how the Canadian market went from being more small cap oriented to large cap and I underperformed the market for the only other year than 2008 by continuing to try and make small caps work.
DeleteBut, I would bet a lot of money if you continue to buy good value stocks in pretty much any market. If you look at Warren Buffett's returns (http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2013ltr.pdf), he made money every year since 1965, good market and bad except for 2001 (he has too much money and can only buy large caps which were overvalued in 2000) and the 2008 financial crisis.
I actually used to hold a lot fewer stock when I had less money to worry about. But holding more does reduce volatility and risk for sure.
Tell you what, sure looks like coal is dead and that leaves bulkers high and dry. Thing is, BDI is not collapsing yet.
ReplyDeleteYeah its been a strange week for the dry bulkers. I'm guessing they're trading off China media concerns for now. Having said that the headwinds are pretty strong for them if China changes its strategy from an infrastructure led / export driven economy to a domestic growth / consumption based economy and if you have coal being avoided because of pollution concerns. That all spooked me a little too much to keep holding on to a big position in BALT.
DeleteBALT is still above its recent lows though and it is the lowest cost operator which is so important. At the current levels in the BDI they're actually profitable with the new ships coming on board. I think they could be taking a hit from GNK crashing and most likely going to have to go through a reorganization.
I'm starting to think that coal is the newspaper of the energy industry in a clean energy world. I'm just staying away.
DeleteOkay, one day at a time, I guess. Just seems to be going nowhere fast but perhaps that beats the alternative.
DeleteAt least TAN is moving the same direction, LOL
BB - Are you thinking of uranuim or just doing JONE?
DeleteI still kinda think when China said they want cleaner air they really meant low sulfur coal instead of no coal??? Why wouldn't they say one thing and do the opposite?
DeleteThen of course we have the issue of carbon emissions, which everyone seems convinced are causing unacceptable levels of global warming.
So maybe natty is the best solution until the perpetual motion machine is perfected?
I think we missed Uranium for now. We've had a nice move off the bottom, but it's hard to know how far it goes as it is just trading on expectations of a better market. The reality is it will take 2 or 3 years for fundamentals to improve and higher Uranium prices to flow through, so I think we will get lower risk entry points.
DeleteI've actually got quite a few energy company stocks though. I should consolidate my holdings, but energy is such a big deal in Canada and we almost have too much info.
The ones I have which are US listed are SU, CNQ, BXE, plus I also have several small caps - SGL.TO, TBE.TO, ATK-A.TO, RPL.TO, ENS.TO.
Just yesterday, VALE advised not to bet against Chinese demand for Brazilian iron ore. It's healthy to examine both sides of the argument, but emerging market demand should continue or gain speed?
ReplyDeleteVALE has their own Chinese built bulker ships, there was some kind of problem with them early on and I'm not sure if that was resolved or if the ships were scrapped or what.
DeleteWhatever happened to the 5yr bulk shipping rally theory, was that just to suck us into a rathole?
ReplyDeleteANR- Did I mention already I've never been happier to be out of a name? :)
ReplyDeleteBSBR - Unbelievable, this one's offsetting my BALT position today.
ReplyDeleteI was looking through Gurufocus yesterday at the holders of BSBR and you've got some top tier value guys in this one. That's always a good sign that the stock has good value, is well run, etc. Now we just need Brazil to catch a bit of a bid and we should be off.
DeleteI still think of BSBR as a low-risk / high-reward way to play Brazil. If Brazil is weak, it's balance sheet provides a floor. If Brazil is strong, it has the ability to grow faster than the economy because it has the normal banking leverage plus its has the money to increase loans.
SPY - Today's line in the sand is 186.66
ReplyDelete"There's construction everywhere". Made yesterday by Kendra as we drove through town.
ReplyDeleteCash construction or lender financed?
DeleteMark - you asked about stop out point for TZA...just keep in mind it's the Russell 2000 not the S&P. My stop would be above all time highs. Have to give it some wiggle room. My cost is around $15.1 I think. Not totally sure. So basically another 4% lower would stop me out.
ReplyDeleteOK, good luck buddy!!
DeleteThanks man! I figure 4% vs 30 to 40% is a good ratio.
DeleteACI almost up on the day. Thermal coal exposure probably helping them.
ReplyDeleteWhere's their thermal coming from? I was thinking maybe their NW port (Seattle?) ownership position might be helping. Coal is so cheap, MET is being mixed with thermal, I think?
Delete"$FB My $7000 in March 69.50 calls are worth $700 now... loosing my shirt on $QIHU & $BIDU too.. i need a drink" Twits comment of the day!
ReplyDeleteShoulda bought that puppy under $100, like I did!
DeleteThe ST outlook has changed (once again, on dime!). Back to vodka> RSX @ 22.06.
ReplyDeleteEM? Maybe. Thinking it over.
I'm cool now. I drink only organic vodka now.
DeleteWow - that's taking a beating today!
DeleteSee Putin's trying to tell the billionaire Russians to move their business HQ back to Russia to pay Russian taxes. If I was a Russian billionaire, I'd be doing exactly the opposite!
Financial war, I fully expect to wake up one morning soon to discover the internet is hacked dead.
DeleteGMO- Man, the last 2 days have to be breaking the hearts of the 3 dudes who thought they caught the low 3 days ago.
ReplyDeleteAgree, looks like sub $1 is definitely coming back. There must still be plenty of moly in the market, no surprise, Suspect the dynamic that supports this case is new technology that allows lower grade ore separation from which moly is one of the byproducts extracted.
DeletePerhaps the perpetual motion machine will be constructed of pure moly and early models will require tons? Graphite is more likely, but the contents will contain about a thimble of uranium.
I agree just b/c March has never been a negative month that doesn't mean it can't happen, that's like throwing tails 10 times in a row. In fact seems the odds would increase.
ReplyDeleteLong EEM + RYWVX. EM just feels like it wants to move up.
ReplyDeleteI think Emerging Markets have worked off the bad news.
DeleteI also think we hit new highs in the US before correcting.
DeleteThe markets blinked, then shrugged it all off.
DeleteI like this move. I noticed that TUR was higher today too. It sure does look like we will get a gap higher possibly tomorrow to new all time highs. Will be interesting to see if the weakness in the small caps continues and there is no new high. Seems like they're diverging a bit but then again I'm biased.
DeleteA lot of these emerging markets look either like they are bottoming or consolidating before another move lower. I think they've gotten cheap enough that it the bottoming this time, but there have been other times too it looked like they were bottoming and they weren't, so we'll see. The one chart that looks bad to me still is FXI (china large cap).
DeleteBB just needs to ignore my posts every other day, then we'll be in total agreement most of the time.
DeleteNice intraday reversals in EWZ and FXI. IMO.
DeleteHaha! Lot of cross-current in the market make it tough to read.
DeleteWhen EM get ready to rock, no way will they allow easy on boarding. Remember the miners?
DeleteIf you look how EEM bottomed last summer, the chart is pretty similar to the current period, then it just took off and was up 15% in 2 or 3 weeks.
DeleteFLWS - I have a hunch this one gaps up tomorrow.
ReplyDelete29 of 30 banks passed the Stress Test of a 2007 - 2009 crisis. That should help for tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteNo wonder we were setup with an advance smackdown! I noticed BAC was running like an SOB today, now I know why.
DeleteNLY - Special smackdown day ahead of dividend announcement, LOL, nice work.
ReplyDeleteJim Cramer today, actually explained well I thought what was going on in the market.
ReplyDeleteYou've got an overall high P/E for the market, around 17 or 18. SO there is some froth there. But you also have the 2 largest market sectors, financials and tech, trading at the low ends of their valuation ranges and the financials now of the tailwind of rising rates. You've also got some bubbly stocks like PLUG, the 3-d printers and biotech that have had huge runs, but are now too overvalued and pulling back. But you've also got many stocks in the financials and tech space doing well. He said it will be hard for the overall market to go down when its 2 biggest sectors are going up and people rotate into these stocks.
Makes perfect sense to me (and not just because it fits right in line with my theory that we are just seeing a market rotation now!).
You could also add EM's as being down near the bottoms of their valuation ranges, but having a higher risk/reward profile.
Yep, that seems to be a reasonable summary.
DeleteBB - I think one thing we have to consider as far as looking for bubbles...I don't think bubbles are the same every time so for example in 2000 we had a bubble in NASDAQ stocks into 2007 we had a financial bubble with excessive leverage. You can have an inventory bubble that causes businesses to be left with excessive inventory up going to slow down. But I think the circumstances change each time and I think the argument could be made that there is a bubble in quantitative easing
Deletesorry for broken english was on the cell phone. Yeah I think one thing maybe we should consider if we want to anticipate the next bubble is that it probably won't be the same. Usual business driven recessions are caused by excess inventory. In fact all recessions are driven by some form of excess inventory, whether its goods, services, loans, etc. So maybe the next one comes from excessive quantitative easing? who knows. I'm sure someone could paint a picture that all of these easing programs are diluting the currencies and could end up causing massive swings all over the place and create a really unstable environment. Just look at the massive move in the Japanese Yen last year in the span of 7 months. About 35% or so. If the dollar made that kind of move up or down it would cause a major disruption to a lot of things. I think that's potentially one area to look for and definitely not something that the majority of investors are prepared for.
DeleteWell, I guess you make the argument that there is a bubble in bond prices as you hear things like "the interest rates in England are the lowest in 350 years". So if the bond bubble crashes and rates go shooting up, that would be bad for pretty much all stocks and we 'd likely have another crash. Most people, including me, are assuming a methodical end to QE, but if people start see rates rise and their bonds drop in value, you could have a rush to sell.
DeleteBut the tech bubble and the housing bubble were very obvious and easy to see (think market cap per page click and NINJA mortgages) - the part that was very difficult was knowing when they end. I can't really see anything else around that would be close to a bubble in current markets. You could try and say dividend growth stocsk, but they're just expensive, not bubbly. Every market also has it's high priced stocks like AMZN, FB, PLUG, etc. but they are stocks people are exceited about, not a full bubble sector of the market.
DeleteYeah I agree. I do think small caps are overvalued and bubblish but the only one I really see is in the govt debt / bonds / QE areas. The trillions laid out via QE could ultimately wind up really distorting currencies which would be one thing i am thinking will be good to keep an eye on.
DeleteI really think there's a chance we see a massive move up in the dollar which could really rock peoples boats. I don't think anyone is prepared for a spike in the dollar
DeleteMore from that report:
ReplyDelete"Met coal PO changes
Walter Energy – We lower our price objective to $2 from $8 as we factor in our new met coal price assumptions but use a similar 10x 2015E EV/EBITDA multiple. The large revision was the result of WLT’s high sensitivity to met coal price changes as we’ve recently laid out in the following scenario report: What if met coal prices stay at recent lows?. Despite recent refinancing that allows it to prepay its upcoming $400M Term Loan A debt maturity, it now has higher interest costs, a smaller revolver, and just ~$100M toward a
balance sheet that still can run out of cash to pay interest payments in 2015E, according to our forecasts.
Alpha Natural – We lower our price objective to $3 from $4 to also reflect the newly lowered met assumption as ANR is also highly exposed to lower met coal prices. Our $3 PO is based on 1) 10x 2015E EV/EBITDA from 9x previously, 2) a $1/shr contribution from its remaining natural gas assets, and 3) its ownership of 9.5M shares of RICE.
Arch Coal – We lower our PO to $2.50 from $3 to incorporate lower met coal prices and now use 10x 2015E EV/EBITDA from a previous 9x.
Peabody Energy – We lower our PO to $18 from $19 and now use 9x 2014E and 8x 2015E EV/EBITDA, vs. 10x 2014E and 8x 2015E previously. While BTU has the second most exposure to met prices, its costs benefit from the depreciation of the Australian dollar relative to the U.S. dollar.
CONSOL Energy – We keep our price objective for CNX at $43 as lower met coal profits are offset by higher 2014E natural gas price forecasts and a higher gas NAV assumption post CNX’s latest reserve estimates last month."
Seriously though, how do you just go from 8 to 2 in one day?
ReplyDeleteAnd wonder how much that analyst is paid? Probably a lot
DeleteI agree, yo. I mean, where are we- Vegas?
DeleteA boy named Sue..........
DeleteThree analysts names are on this, one of which I consider to be a misleading jerk (With a name like this, does Timna Tanners have a chip on her shoulder?) BTU mentioned in their CC that there were producers out there undercutting others. Perhaps BACML has purposely called out the offender and placed him in the sights of a firing squad?
"Jan 15, 2010 - Timna Tanners, UBS Investment Research, is expecting materials to show a sharp improvement year over year in volumes and price."
There is absolutely no reason to bet on Brazil or China right now. I just like taking the other side of that 'trade.'
ReplyDeleteMITK- http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/03/ca-kofax-idUSnBw035291a+100+BSW20140203
ReplyDeleteIt's WFC. See ya Jimmy.
Didn't WFC sign with MITK?
DeleteOriginally. Not anymore it seems. Did you see where MITK is offering up $1 M to app developers who use their technology?
DeleteWe should become developers! :)
DeleteKFX actually has earnings!
DeleteTZA - Stink bid @ $14.20, to short a new high, might rather park cash in SH???
ReplyDeleteAGCO - Spring loaded?
ReplyDeleteACI seems to be most popular of them?
ReplyDeleteZGNX - Off the cliff...
ReplyDeleteLike playing a carnival game.
CECO - Not lookin' so bad, eh?
ReplyDeleteBALT - $6.40 TOF - You nailed the low !!!! Okay, so where'd that number come from?
ReplyDeleteI see an H&S on the 5 day chart, it suggests $6.40 as well.
Delete