In the home stretch! The tappers should be finished tomorrow and we could wrap up the painting this weekend. The kids keep asking when the 'fun stuff' will go in. I thought it was!!
Bb - I've been watching babe and balt closely actually. I think both are looking good again. I actually bought a little balt today. I think the market is looking better and better but I do think we get a pullback when people least expect it. In fact I think most think tomorrow gaps up so it most likely gaps down. I think if we do get a pullback it will be after a rise across the board sucks in the scared traders. I am liking the move in steel stuff and blue chips. Looks positive to me. Definitely looks like just a rotation. But some of the stuff rising seems kind of lame to me.
Other thing that has me a bit cautious is I've been hearing from a few businesses I know that their biz is a lot slower. We shall see if it's just a lull.
Mark, hard to believe that's your cellar, really nice.
TOF yeah we are in Houston, I started treatment last Thursday with 9 hours of infusion. I feel up and down with the first 3 days seeming the worst. I hope the next foer months of this goes the same way.
PORT, has really been cool. Prior to treatment, he was trying to get together for lunch on Sunday's but my schedule was just to hectic in setting up a place to rent here. So, PORT did the next best thing, sent us some activities and some of his favorite restaurant's one of which we tried and really like, Pappasitio's.
Lots of time on my hands and my computer equipment should show up in a few days, let's hope the mind stays sharp.
Great trading guys, if it was easy anyone could do it.
I could even make a Landry-type argument here and say buy on the move above resistance @ 40+. Wishful thinking? Maybe, but any mental edge can help when trying to game the markets.
Been touring through some open houses down here when we see see them out walking. Incredible the money people spend on some things - 1,000 sq ft ensuites, a staircase that took 8 weeks to build so it would look nautical, elevators for 2 story houses, 4 fridges in a kitchen (2 for food, 1 for white wine, 1 for red), laundry facilities on every floor, etc.
I'm sure you've seen this kind of stuff too Mark, but impressive to me. Not one basement though!
"who sells a $6 million home by doing an open house? " You're right, that does seem odd but you know, agents love to do open houses b/c they get to hand out their business cards so it's an opportunity for them.
TUR - Too bad I only stole a 1/2 position, was thinking maybe it hadn't bottomed yet. There's one problem with nailing the bottom! What's a Sam Adams post, one that's slightly incoherent?
So much for there not being a OGRE. In hindsight it makes sense...traders have been conditioned to expect a OGRE followed by a RYTOR (Rip Your Tits Off Rally). So fading the up open is avoided at the very time it should be embraced.
I sold the few thousand shares of BALT at $6.4 that I picked up yesterday. I expect a drop below $6 as a more ideal entry. Probably means I'm wrong.
Jeez I really can't get over the valuations of some of these stocks in the Nasdaq. FEYE SPLK WDAY...they're all absurdly priced. How is this whole "cloud" nonsense any different than the Dotcom bubble? The majority of these companies are not even close to profitable and are trading at $8 to $15 Billion market caps.
Nice work on the basement Mark. The dry wall is looking sharp and I like the tile. Sure a big change from the 'before' shots. So, is anyone buying into the Fed jawboning on raising rates/pulling stimulus with the TLT/TBT charts quad topped/bottomed? Something has to give. I'd be interested in your thoughts. Feels toppy these days. It doesn't look like anyone believes Yellen judging by the charts. Either that or they do believe her and TLT will break through to the upside and stocks will correct.
I don't know man. I think people are definitely buying into it. Stocks are weak for a reason. I don't think rates would have risen without the Fed supporting things because the economy is sluggish and there's too much slack.
Yes, there has been a lot of internal damage...masked somewhat by the S&P. Look at the nasdaq and russell. A lot of tension being built if you look at TLT/TBT. Today TLT and UUP a crawling higher, which would fit the fear. Seems counter intuitive because one would think with rising USD (and presumably interest rates) that TBT would be the vehicle of choice, but probably not before down side protection of TLT. That would explain your reply. Without demand interest rates will be held down but the Fed pulling support will push the dollar higher and traders will seek protection in T's.
The only Landry service pick in days is a short, so the database is saying the same. We haven't had a trigger in over a month and a few picks stopped out after well exceeding price targets. So I still made a hunk of change but left some open profits on the table. I cannot complain. If we go short we go short and the market decides.
So it's plain enough that so far it seems to be a reality. I'm happy to let the market come to me.
Well I tried VXX today and got immediately smacked down. Bought at the highs at $43.8 and sold at $43.5. I did, however, buy QID at $57.75 and more than made up for that loss. This is starting to get ugly and I'd like to be short.
Maybe it's just the quiet start of liquidation and it isn't panic yet. Tops are a process. Most 'investors' meaning Mom and Pop only hear about markets on the 6 o'clock news. They aren't glued to it like we are.
I agree; all comes down to whether or not the Tepper thesis that the Fed is supporting the stock markets is a widespread thesis. If it is then the hint at substantial tapering will shrink multiples...no question. That's impossible to determine for sure but my hunch is that's what's going on and without the Fed things like interest rates would actually be lower because animal spirits would be gone.
I'm borrowing ST at zero, so I don't know how much lower they can go, but not everyone has access to 0% loans. Banks are paying .025-0.30%, so tapering probably won't do all that much at first.
So if the Fed tapers and crashes the markets, will they respond and backtrack or finally let water seek it's own level? Interesting times....
LOL! It's quite the statement as long as you avoid going back just one year more to March/April 2000. I notice this guy conveniently starts his comparison in 2001/2002. If only they would let me trade the left side of a chart or make predictions on the past of my choice.
Alright sold QID at $58.6. Probably goes lower but I'm going to enjoy this from the sidelines and pick up the trash thrown out by the over margined panickers.
(a) EM still displaying relative strength, up +0.4% while US small-caps decline -1.58%. The ‘unwinding’ of last year’s divergence continues. (b) Miners? Decimating recent buyers, down -16% (-4% today) since March 14. (c) Preparing to re-board EM on a pullback. EEM opened strong @ 40.29, now testing buyers @ 39.95. EWZ off its early highs of 43+, now @ 42.50. (d) RSX (Russia) treading water after a brisk open as well (e) BRIC house still very much in play. Just trying to avoid overpaying.
Anyone who chased the EM train this morning is facing a small dilemma here. But it's small. So I think they turn the screws on Thursday for a stronger test.
US markets turning ugly. EM may show resilience, but even the strongest investors will retreat when appropriate. And this morning's buyers aren't exactly Supermen.
The EM long trade actually seems a bit crowded to me which seems odd on the surface given how far it has fallen. Just a hunch.
Market is back to flat on year. I've been able to get up to +12% now YTD. Given how difficult this year has been I'm almost tempted to just call it a year. I know TZA and her stepsister TNA will compel me to do the opposite.
Interesting. Seems like everyone on the boards / etc are betting on the EM rebound. Does it do a JO like move or does it do a one week move like Coals for the past 2 years? That's the debate.
That's always the challenge. When I sold the RSX calls this am, I had to fight the thought that I was being an idiot. Now I'm toying with the idea of buying a little SLW, but thinking I'm an idiot to play with fire.
The bitch about being correct on a 3X leveraged bearish bet is sitting through the massive volatility. Sometimes cash is just a preferred position.
You just know they open the market up down big tomorrow and reverse it higher right? Those are the mind games you have to play with that position on a daily / hourly basis.
"I'm borrowing ST at zero, so I don't know how much lower they can go, but not everyone has access to 0% loans. Banks are paying .025-0.30%, so tapering probably won't do all that much at first.
So if the Fed tapers and crashes the markets, will they respond and backtrack or finally let water seek it's own level? Interesting times...."
My take is I don't think the market crashes but a big part of the trade from 2012 until now had to do with a fed backstop. At least that's what Tepper announced. I think there will be an adjustment period for a little bit and if we get bad econ data then I think we go into a mini bear. My best guess is its going to be choppy for the next 2 years and probably a good idea to keep that in mind. Probably will make for some awesome trading opportunities.
Markets trend higher over time, though. Let's say we do end up getting a 25% pullback...we could easily go up to 2100 and then get that pullback which brings us squarely back to the 2007 highs.
That technical setup that I mentioned two weeks ago on the weekly charts (with MACD crossover, lower MACD highs, and a retest of the crossover line, along with negatively diverging RSIs) is a pretty powerful setup from what I've looked at over the past 20 years. It's not perfect (none are) but its the same exact setup seen in the market before every big pullback. Given the 175% run over the past 5 years its worth keeping risk in check for a little while.
Yep, basically the same as MA crossovers (bowties) off of all time highs. Not all bowtie crossovers are transitional patterns (sometimes we get faked out) but all transitional patterns (off of all time or multi-year lows or highs) have bowties/MA crossovers. All this stuff is derivative of price/time. Add in broad based market/sector weakness and you can get a strong sense of where it's going.
Shit I think it could pull all the way back to $5.20 and still look fine longer term. Not saying it will but who knows? Maybe GNK goes belly up and people panic?
One thing that continues to concern me about them is the whole idea that coal is going away. If China cracks down on coal it could be tough for the shippers, at least sentiment wise.
I am ready to put all my 401K into LZEMX (tracks EEM) with a stop at the February low of $47 on EEM. If EEM rises tomorrow above today's high, then I am in.
the Canadian Venture index touched its 200 DMA on the daily chart from above today, which is a great entry point. If we look at the weekly chart, CDNX stayed below 200 DMA since the summer of 2012, and it broke above it at the end of December 2013, after setting up a perfect double bottom in July/December. The 200 DMA on the weekly is around 960 now, so we might have room for a little more downside on PNPFF. But I would suggest starting to scale into it now...
dude - horrible. can't believe that. we should have discussed this further. clearly traders were thinking they did this 3 days in a row so there's no way they would do it 4 days. and to top make matters worse i bet some people figured they bounced it later in the day several days in a row so they would do it again.
I bought a small shot of RLYP this afternoon hoping to play a bounce. It's been getting slaughtered, down 20% today and double digits for about a week. Made a ton of cash on the way up, then the Fed (overall market) and a secondary offering torpedoed the thing. Seemed to find an intraday low today and I got a smallish position.
(a) Immediate. Give 10 units of insulin + dextrose 50%. This will drive potassium out of the circulation and into cells, temporarily lowering blood levels (and preempt adverse effects on the heart). (b) Dialysis. A regular ritual for patients with kidney disease. (c) Sodium polystyrene sulfonate (aka SPS or Kayexalate). An oral suspension used to bind potassium in the gut (for the occasional lucky dude, it can also be administered as a retention enema).
I haven't read up on RLYP's product yet, but it sounds like another binder product? Is there a competitive advantage?
"Relypsa, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, today announced that its Phase 2b trial studying the safety and efficacy of patiromer as a treatment for hyperkalemia has met the primary efficacy endpoint for the trial. Additionally, treatment with patiromer maintained mean serum potassium within the normal range for up to one year, supporting persistence of the potassium lowering effect of patiromer over time. These clinically meaningful results provide supportive evidence for the efficacy, safety and tolerability of patiromer as a treatment for hyperkalemia when dosed twice daily over the long-term.
The Phase 2b trial was an open-label, randomized, dose ranging trial to determine the optimal starting dose(s) and the efficacy and safety of patiromer when used over the long-term to treat hyperkalemia. Three hundred six (306) patients were randomized into the trial. In the 8-week Treatment Initiation Period, patients were eligible for enrollment if they were hyperkalemic, had Chronic Kidney Disease and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and were taking a renin angiotensin aldosterone system (RAAS) inhibitor medication prior to screening. Patients were assigned to Stratum 1 (baseline serum potassium 5.1 to 5.5 mEq/L) or Stratum 2 (baseline serum potassium 5.6 to less than 6.0 mEq/L), were randomized to one of three different starting doses of patiromer depending on the stratum, and, if needed based on their serum potassium levels, their patiromer doses were individually titrated. All patients could continue receiving patiromer in the 44-week Long-term Maintenance Period for a total of one year of treatment."
http://www.relypsa.com/news/2013/2013.10.17.html
As you know, I don't pay much attention to this, I trade chart patterns and mean revision. I'm not a fundamental guy.
I see. So it's envisioned as a long-term 'chronic' medication used to keep potassium levels within normal limits. Many diabetic patients have hypertension, and drugs such as ACE-inhibitors or ARBs (angiotensin receptor blockers) are considered first-line therapy. ACE-Is + ARBs also tend to raise potassium levels, so it makes sense to develop a medication that counters that adverse effect (it's not always an adverse effect- patients who take diuretics for hypertension will lose potassium, and benefit from ACE-Is or ARBs for that reason).
Does Purdue's product contain compounds that will have adverse effects on legitimate cronic pain sufferers? If yes, I guess junkies and addicts will love it b/c they don't give a shit about their livers anyway?
Trivia (except for parties involved): Relative to Tuesday's closing price, the 1030 am close was +1.83% @ 63.54, whereas the 330 pm close was -0.19% @ 62.28.
YNDX - Target price is $1583, according to finviz.... must be a mistake. p/s is merely 11, probably another mistake as likely most of the other info provided is erroneous.
Wow, is what I think about that NWLI response, well done. As far as Russia is concerned, Putin 's abilities are not something I'm willing to match wits with.
What I mean by this is I happen to believe in my heart that Putin is positioning Russia into the global trade arena but he's going about it wrongly by supporting dictators who aren't adverse to all types of human rights atrocities. Not saying our own government is beyond theft but I don't see citizens being shot dead on the capital mall while the US defends or worse, sends arms to those who have.
Start firing when you see the whites of their eyes unless they're secret service agents, (in which case they're wearing dark sun glasses) fire when you smell the booze).
"Geopolitical concerns in Crimea" - I guess this is having no impact which will eventually fade once Putin's done screwing around, must be something else?
Holy shit what a move in these stocks. Awesome call 2nd.
By the way, YNDX is the Google of Russia. Here's a quick look at their growth over the past 5 years: http://financials.morningstar.com/income-statement/is.html?t=YNDX®ion=usa&culture=en-US&ownerCountry=USA
These figures are in Rubles (so too are Yahoo estimates).
I'm happy to see a rally. This reinforces the belief that dip buying works. I'd love to be able to get a chance to re-enter a Russell 2000 short near resistance.
Oh the beauty of max leverage during a selloff. Leading stocks won't stop until they're down 50%+. Doesn't matter if they have great fundies...if margins calls come people will sell regardless.
They did $1.1 Billion revs last 12 months Earnings were around $350 Million EPS = 21 Top line growth = 40%
This has been on my watchlist for a while though. Could potentially be a good long term entry if you're looking at something longer term. Doesn't matter for my trade since I'll be out by days end most likely.
Yesterday, LZEMX broke out to the highest level since early February, EEM did it today. I just placed an order to move 1/2 of my 401K into LZEMX, with a mental stop at early February lows. Will keep adding to LZEMX if it starts pulling back toward Feb. lows.
All my "super stocks" are getting crushed today. ALTI is approaching its previous early Feb low. If that low is violated, then I have to be out... SCON is also touching its lower trend line now...
Just for the heck of it, I just purchased 500 more shares of ALTI at $4.23 and placed a sell stop limit order for all my 1400 shares at $4.04/$4.00, just below the previous low.
I remember thinking a few weeks ago that when this market starts going down on no reason at all then I would get scared / cautious. We had the fed taper scare and went higher. Cyprus? Higher. Crimea? Higher. Etcetera etcetera. The reasons have gone on for a long time and yet we kept going higher. Now? No one can pinpoint why we are going down. So we should ultimately go higher, they say. Well remember back in 2009 when things turned but we couldn't figure out why? It was the price that mattered not the news. I think we head lower and have a recession coming, possibly. Not a nasty one but enough to knock stocks down 20%. I don't know of any analyst that's bearish on year end targets. No one is bearish on the us economy. Shit even roubini is bullish. This article says it best:
Last week, I shared my plan for shorting this market: short IWM upon the break below the 117 level, which marked January highs and then the double bottom in Feb/March. As soon as IWM broke below this level (on Monday), I bought some IWM puts. Now that IWM has descended some ways below this level, I think a decent exit strategy from these puts would be to close them if IWM rises above 117 or if those puts double/triple -- let's see which one happens first. :)
A good barometer for the success of ABE‘s new initiative will have to be the NIKKEI, especially the Japanese financial stocks. Many analysts believe the Abe Government will succeed because the new fiscal year will bring spending plans forward to insure against a drag from decreased consumer demand. In 1997 the Japanese government was slashing government spending while the BOJ was not an active participant through any type of liquidity provisions. Will it be different this time? Again, watch the Japanese bank stocks as a barometer for the success of Abenomics. The NIKKEI is sitting on the 200-day moving average. It’s very convenient for those looking for a way to measure risk levels, either being long or short.
(a) EWZ off premarket @ 44.90 (+5.2% one-day return versus opening basis of 42.6x). (b) FXI off premarket @ 35.71 (+2.3% one-day return versus opening basis of 34.9x). (c) PBR off premarket @ 13.05 (+8.7% one-day return versus opening basis of 12). Still holding a partial position. (d) VALE off premarket @ 13.70 (+4% one-day return versus opening basis of 13.16).
I have been eyeing a move to 1,161 to 1,165 in /TF (Russell futures). That's the low from 3/3, 3/14, 3/24, and 3/25. I'll stop out on a move above 1,168. I'm playing the 1980 move where it breaks down then trades sideways for a few days before breaking lower. Watch it probably rips to 1,200 to form a lower high...
For 5 years now everyone has been talking about the coming crash in the dollar. And yet 5 years later the dollar is still higher and has been putting in higher highs all along. It has traded sideways for like 18 months. It's getting ready for a MAJOR move soon. I say higher. Much higher.
The charts of STV and ELON no longer look clearly bullish to me. So I exited those positions with a very small loss. Used the proceeds to add 2K shares of SCON at $2.79. SCON is now touching the lower trendline since Nov 2013. Let's see if it can muster up a move from here. If it drops below the Feb low, then I am out.
ORCL broke out to a new 10-year high today, despite initially poor reaction to earnings last week. This bodes well for my calls that will vest on June. Unless, of course, the whole market crashes...
I was debating yesterday whether I should purchase ALTI or PNPFF on the drop. Chose ALTI. So far it looks like it was not the best choice. ALTI did pop, however, so I am placing a mental stop under yesterday's lows at $4.21. If they do not hold, then most likely the Feb lows at $4.06 do not hold as well. And if that happens, then the nice cup shape the lows have traced out since Nov 2013 will also be gone, and hence there would be no reason to be in that stock.
The way PNPFF and SIL are rallying, outperforming the underlying PMs, is suggesting that the double bottom in SLV may hold after all. So I have just added 6 more Jan 2015 calls on SLV at $1.88. Will be out of all my calls if that double bottom is broken (i.e., SLV drops below $18.50, which is a very tight stop with a small possible loss). If it holds, however, then the gains can be huge. Nice asymmetric trade.
Looks awesome man. Nice work.
ReplyDeleteBb - I've been watching babe and balt closely actually. I think both are looking good again. I actually bought a little balt today. I think the market is looking better and better but I do think we get a pullback when people least expect it. In fact I think most think tomorrow gaps up so it most likely gaps down. I think if we do get a pullback it will be after a rise across the board sucks in the scared traders. I am liking the move in steel stuff and blue chips. Looks positive to me. Definitely looks like just a rotation. But some of the stuff rising seems kind of lame to me.
Other thing that has me a bit cautious is I've been hearing from a few businesses I know that their biz is a lot slower. We shall see if it's just a lull.
Ha bsbr not babe. Spell check
DeleteMark, hard to believe that's your cellar, really nice.
ReplyDeleteTOF yeah we are in Houston, I started treatment last Thursday with 9 hours of infusion. I feel up and down with the first 3 days seeming the worst. I hope the next foer months of this goes the same way.
PORT, has really been cool. Prior to treatment, he was trying to get together for lunch on Sunday's but my schedule was just to hectic in setting up a place to rent here. So, PORT did the next best thing, sent us some activities and some of his favorite restaurant's one of which we tried and really like, Pappasitio's.
Lots of time on my hands and my computer equipment should show up in a few days, let's hope the mind stays sharp.
Great trading guys, if it was easy anyone could do it.
Nice work on the basement, Mark.
ReplyDeleteEEM bidding 40.12.
ReplyDeleteAlright, let me take the 30,000 feet view. A blip. I spend too much time on the ground looking at every tree.
DeleteI could even make a Landry-type argument here and say buy on the move above resistance @ 40+. Wishful thinking? Maybe, but any mental edge can help when trying to game the markets.
DeleteWhere's the puck headed? 38 or 43?
DeleteSo I missed a +1 move in EEM. No worries. I caught the +1 prior to that. Now it's on to the next +2. Each trade stands on its own.
DeleteWe may see an OGRE setup at the open.
DeleteDoubt the ogre just because it did that past 3 sessions
DeleteTUR up 3.5% this morning for some reason as well. Chart still looks good and stock was 66% higher less than a year ago.
DeleteMay be another false bottom for these types of stocks, but seems like they have gotten so cheap that they are ready to go now.
Nice work on the basement Mark. Looks like nice high ceilings too. Is this in California? I didn't think people did basements down there?
ReplyDeleteMark's from Northern California. That's like saying Harrison Ford is the Amish cousin from Ohio.
DeleteYep, Sonoma County. Your right, we normally don't do basements here, and never for the traditional reasons.
DeleteBeen touring through some open houses down here when we see see them out walking. Incredible the money people spend on some things - 1,000 sq ft ensuites, a staircase that took 8 weeks to build so it would look nautical, elevators for 2 story houses, 4 fridges in a kitchen (2 for food, 1 for white wine, 1 for red), laundry facilities on every floor, etc.
DeleteI'm sure you've seen this kind of stuff too Mark, but impressive to me. Not one basement though!
You know what else is funny - who sells a $6 million home by doing an open house?
Delete"who sells a $6 million home by doing an open house? "
DeleteYou're right, that does seem odd but you know, agents love to do open houses b/c they get to hand out their business cards so it's an opportunity for them.
David Merkel, who is an ex-actuary and now hedge fund manager, replied to my email on NWLI on seeking alpha:
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/2109443-on-national-western-life
I am the "respected reader". Obviously he hasn't seen my Sam Adams posts
No worries. We honor the Sam Adams posts here.
DeleteI sold the two calls (RSX Jan 25) I reopened @ 1.40 a few days ago for 1.70.
ReplyDeleteBasement's coming along nicely Mark, what's that on the floor? Did you box in the original wooden posts?
ReplyDeleteTUR - Too bad I only stole a 1/2 position, was thinking maybe it hadn't bottomed yet. There's one problem with nailing the bottom!
ReplyDeleteWhat's a Sam Adams post, one that's slightly incoherent?
Basically. Read any of my posts after say, 6:00 pst.
DeleteSo much for there not being a OGRE. In hindsight it makes sense...traders have been conditioned to expect a OGRE followed by a RYTOR (Rip Your Tits Off Rally). So fading the up open is avoided at the very time it should be embraced.
ReplyDeleteI sold the few thousand shares of BALT at $6.4 that I picked up yesterday. I expect a drop below $6 as a more ideal entry. Probably means I'm wrong.
Will EM boarders this am be tested in the next two days? Kinda hope so.
ReplyDeleteToo much exuberance for me to buy into right now.
DeleteBaltic Dry Index (BDI) -82 1496
ReplyDeleteYesterday the site never updated but it looks like today's and yesterday must've been down by 20 to 1582 from 1602
Sure looks like a good place to throw some silver in the buckboard...
ReplyDeleteShort AAPL at $548.3
ReplyDeleteStop above highs of the day. I really don't have much going on as far as ideas.
Delete"don't have much going on as far as ideas."
DeleteThat tells you it's a Sam Adams moment!
Covered at $547.2
DeleteURG - Not sure why this one has been sinking but something's going to happen, probably shoot up soon. Wonder why it's been weak?
ReplyDeleteTUR - Not laying eggs today!
ReplyDeleteLong AAPL at $547.3.
ReplyDeleteSeeing lots of false breakdowns today. I think we could rip higher.
ReplyDeleteCrappy day for rates for the dry bulkers. Hopefully GNK goes tits up and drags down BALT. Looking for a $5.XX entry.
ReplyDeletePLUG/FCEL - Must've hit an inert gas pocket.
ReplyDeleteSold AAPL at $548.4. I'm pushing my luck on this I know.
ReplyDeleteGEVO - Knockout in advance of the tit-ripper?
ReplyDeleteBALT - $6.17, that's a penny higher, I think.
ReplyDeleteTurning my attention to miners.
ReplyDeleteJeez I really can't get over the valuations of some of these stocks in the Nasdaq. FEYE SPLK WDAY...they're all absurdly priced. How is this whole "cloud" nonsense any different than the Dotcom bubble? The majority of these companies are not even close to profitable and are trading at $8 to $15 Billion market caps.
ReplyDeleteThese are the ones that I'm seeing false breakdowns in though which is a sign that people are back to taking on some risk.
DeleteSo much for that! Let 'er crash.
DeleteThailand Economic Watch: February exports rose 2.43%
ReplyDeleteAnyone with balls big enough to trade VXX?
ReplyDeleteAlways a good short.
DeleteOGRE in play on the $RUT.
ReplyDeleteI had my finger on the button to buy TZA this morning at $15.17 pre market but given big gains yesterday I was gun shy. Another awesome trade.
DeleteNice work on the basement Mark. The dry wall is looking sharp and I like the tile. Sure a big change from the 'before' shots. So, is anyone buying into the Fed jawboning on raising rates/pulling stimulus with the TLT/TBT charts quad topped/bottomed? Something has to give. I'd be interested in your thoughts. Feels toppy these days. It doesn't look like anyone believes Yellen judging by the charts. Either that or they do believe her and TLT will break through to the upside and stocks will correct.
ReplyDeleteI don't know man. I think people are definitely buying into it. Stocks are weak for a reason. I don't think rates would have risen without the Fed supporting things because the economy is sluggish and there's too much slack.
DeleteYes, there has been a lot of internal damage...masked somewhat by the S&P. Look at the nasdaq and russell. A lot of tension being built if you look at TLT/TBT. Today TLT and UUP a crawling higher, which would fit the fear.
DeleteSeems counter intuitive because one would think with rising USD (and presumably interest rates) that TBT would be the vehicle of choice, but probably not before down side protection of TLT. That would explain your reply. Without demand interest rates will be held down but the Fed pulling support will push the dollar higher and traders will seek protection in T's.
The decision concerning Yellen is plain as the nose on your face, clear as a bell!
DeleteThe only Landry service pick in days is a short, so the database is saying the same. We haven't had a trigger in over a month and a few picks stopped out after well exceeding price targets. So I still made a hunk of change but left some open profits on the table. I cannot complain. If we go short we go short and the market decides.
DeleteSo it's plain enough that so far it seems to be a reality. I'm happy to let the market come to me.
Well I tried VXX today and got immediately smacked down. Bought at the highs at $43.8 and sold at $43.5. I did, however, buy QID at $57.75 and more than made up for that loss. This is starting to get ugly and I'd like to be short.
ReplyDeletei just get the feeling that people are being very complacent.
DeleteMaybe it's just the quiet start of liquidation and it isn't panic yet. Tops are a process. Most 'investors' meaning Mom and Pop only hear about markets on the 6 o'clock news. They aren't glued to it like we are.
DeleteI agree; all comes down to whether or not the Tepper thesis that the Fed is supporting the stock markets is a widespread thesis. If it is then the hint at substantial tapering will shrink multiples...no question. That's impossible to determine for sure but my hunch is that's what's going on and without the Fed things like interest rates would actually be lower because animal spirits would be gone.
DeleteI'm borrowing ST at zero, so I don't know how much lower they can go, but not everyone has access to 0% loans. Banks are paying .025-0.30%, so tapering probably won't do all that much at first.
DeleteSo if the Fed tapers and crashes the markets, will they respond and backtrack or finally let water seek it's own level? Interesting times....
Remember guys, markets don't go down in March or April
ReplyDeletehttp://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2014/03/20/markets-dont-go-down-in-march-april/
LOL! It's quite the statement as long as you avoid going back just one year more to March/April 2000.
DeleteI notice this guy conveniently starts his comparison in 2001/2002. If only they would let me trade the left side of a chart or make predictions on the past of my choice.
Alright sold QID at $58.6. Probably goes lower but I'm going to enjoy this from the sidelines and pick up the trash thrown out by the over margined panickers.
ReplyDeleteLong AAPL for a trade again. $539.45.
ReplyDeleteBears seem weak to me still. Even after today's drop. Seems just like a knee jerk reaction, just like the past week, which will resolve upward.
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, both the Nasdaq and the Russell are in clear downtrends in the short term.
DeleteThey took me out of the AAPL long at $541.4
ReplyDelete(a) EM still displaying relative strength, up +0.4% while US small-caps decline -1.58%. The ‘unwinding’ of last year’s divergence continues.
ReplyDelete(b) Miners? Decimating recent buyers, down -16% (-4% today) since March 14.
(c) Preparing to re-board EM on a pullback. EEM opened strong @ 40.29, now testing buyers @ 39.95. EWZ off its early highs of 43+, now @ 42.50.
(d) RSX (Russia) treading water after a brisk open as well
(e) BRIC house still very much in play. Just trying to avoid overpaying.
Anyone who chased the EM train this morning is facing a small dilemma here. But it's small. So I think they turn the screws on Thursday for a stronger test.
DeleteUS markets turning ugly. EM may show resilience, but even the strongest investors will retreat when appropriate. And this morning's buyers aren't exactly Supermen.
DeleteThe EM long trade actually seems a bit crowded to me which seems odd on the surface given how far it has fallen. Just a hunch.
DeleteMarket is back to flat on year. I've been able to get up to +12% now YTD. Given how difficult this year has been I'm almost tempted to just call it a year. I know TZA and her stepsister TNA will compel me to do the opposite.
The EM trade only appears crowded. More money flowed out of EEM/VWO Q1 2014 than entire year 2013. If you believe what you read.
DeleteInteresting. Seems like everyone on the boards / etc are betting on the EM rebound. Does it do a JO like move or does it do a one week move like Coals for the past 2 years? That's the debate.
DeleteThat's always the challenge. When I sold the RSX calls this am, I had to fight the thought that I was being an idiot. Now I'm toying with the idea of buying a little SLW, but thinking I'm an idiot to play with fire.
DeleteThe bitch about being correct on a 3X leveraged bearish bet is sitting through the massive volatility. Sometimes cash is just a preferred position.
ReplyDeleteYou just know they open the market up down big tomorrow and reverse it higher right? Those are the mind games you have to play with that position on a daily / hourly basis.
"I'm borrowing ST at zero, so I don't know how much lower they can go, but not everyone has access to 0% loans. Banks are paying .025-0.30%, so tapering probably won't do all that much at first.
ReplyDeleteSo if the Fed tapers and crashes the markets, will they respond and backtrack or finally let water seek it's own level? Interesting times...."
My take is I don't think the market crashes but a big part of the trade from 2012 until now had to do with a fed backstop. At least that's what Tepper announced. I think there will be an adjustment period for a little bit and if we get bad econ data then I think we go into a mini bear. My best guess is its going to be choppy for the next 2 years and probably a good idea to keep that in mind. Probably will make for some awesome trading opportunities.
Markets trend higher over time, though. Let's say we do end up getting a 25% pullback...we could easily go up to 2100 and then get that pullback which brings us squarely back to the 2007 highs.
DeleteThat technical setup that I mentioned two weeks ago on the weekly charts (with MACD crossover, lower MACD highs, and a retest of the crossover line, along with negatively diverging RSIs) is a pretty powerful setup from what I've looked at over the past 20 years. It's not perfect (none are) but its the same exact setup seen in the market before every big pullback. Given the 175% run over the past 5 years its worth keeping risk in check for a little while.
Yep, basically the same as MA crossovers (bowties) off of all time highs. Not all bowtie crossovers are transitional patterns (sometimes we get faked out) but all transitional patterns (off of all time or multi-year lows or highs) have bowties/MA crossovers. All this stuff is derivative of price/time. Add in broad based market/sector weakness and you can get a strong sense of where it's going.
DeleteBALT - Kinda went against longs today, didn't it? Seems to be in a downtrend, too many ships out there?
ReplyDeleteShit I think it could pull all the way back to $5.20 and still look fine longer term. Not saying it will but who knows? Maybe GNK goes belly up and people panic?
DeleteOne thing that continues to concern me about them is the whole idea that coal is going away. If China cracks down on coal it could be tough for the shippers, at least sentiment wise.
I am ready to put all my 401K into LZEMX (tracks EEM) with a stop at the February low of $47 on EEM. If EEM rises tomorrow above today's high, then I am in.
ReplyDeleteRE: miners
ReplyDeleteStill waiting for the PNPFF to hit my buy limit at $0.42, so as to partially replace the shares I sold at $0.49. According to
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$CDNX
the Canadian Venture index touched its 200 DMA on the daily chart from above today, which is a great entry point. If we look at the weekly chart, CDNX stayed below 200 DMA since the summer of 2012, and it broke above it at the end of December 2013, after setting up a perfect double bottom in July/December. The 200 DMA on the weekly is around 960 now, so we might have room for a little more downside on PNPFF. But I would suggest starting to scale into it now...
Great trading TOF!
ReplyDeleteThanks man. Still pissed I chickened out on TZA this morning. I had a big order entered at the open just couldn't pull the trigger.
DeleteI've been chickening out for a while now.
DeleteNot as pissed as I am for letting you talk me out of the OGRE.
DeleteJuuuuuuust kidding.
Deletedude - horrible. can't believe that. we should have discussed this further. clearly traders were thinking they did this 3 days in a row so there's no way they would do it 4 days. and to top make matters worse i bet some people figured they bounced it later in the day several days in a row so they would do it again.
DeleteAnyone willing to step in and buy YNDX on the "double bottom"?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.calamos.com/fundinvestor/MarketInsights/blog/article?name=2014-03-25-Gary-Black-When-Stocks-Behave-Like-Bonds
ReplyDeleteJeezus look at EDMC. What a friggin round trip that was.
ReplyDeleteWowza.
DeleteOpened a small position in HIMX after hours @ 11.82. For kicks.
ReplyDeleteI bought a small shot of RLYP this afternoon hoping to play a bounce. It's been getting slaughtered, down 20% today and double digits for about a week. Made a ton of cash on the way up, then the Fed (overall market) and a secondary offering torpedoed the thing. Seemed to find an intraday low today and I got a smallish position.
DeleteCurrently three ways to treat hyperkalemia:
Delete(a) Immediate. Give 10 units of insulin + dextrose 50%. This will drive potassium out of the circulation and into cells, temporarily lowering blood levels (and preempt adverse effects on the heart).
(b) Dialysis. A regular ritual for patients with kidney disease.
(c) Sodium polystyrene sulfonate (aka SPS or Kayexalate). An oral suspension used to bind potassium in the gut (for the occasional lucky dude, it can also be administered as a retention enema).
I haven't read up on RLYP's product yet, but it sounds like another binder product? Is there a competitive advantage?
"Relypsa, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, today announced that its Phase 2b trial studying the safety and efficacy of patiromer as a treatment for hyperkalemia has met the primary efficacy endpoint for the trial. Additionally, treatment with patiromer maintained mean serum potassium within the normal range for up to one year, supporting persistence of the potassium lowering effect of patiromer over time. These clinically meaningful results provide supportive evidence for the efficacy, safety and tolerability of patiromer as a treatment for hyperkalemia when dosed twice daily over the long-term.
DeleteThe Phase 2b trial was an open-label, randomized, dose ranging trial to determine the optimal starting dose(s) and the efficacy and safety of patiromer when used over the long-term to treat hyperkalemia. Three hundred six (306) patients were randomized into the trial. In the 8-week Treatment Initiation Period, patients were eligible for enrollment if they were hyperkalemic, had Chronic Kidney Disease and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and were taking a renin angiotensin aldosterone system (RAAS) inhibitor medication prior to screening. Patients were assigned to Stratum 1 (baseline serum potassium 5.1 to 5.5 mEq/L) or Stratum 2 (baseline serum potassium 5.6 to less than 6.0 mEq/L), were randomized to one of three different starting doses of patiromer depending on the stratum, and, if needed based on their serum potassium levels, their patiromer doses were individually titrated. All patients could continue receiving patiromer in the 44-week Long-term Maintenance Period for a total of one year of treatment."
http://www.relypsa.com/news/2013/2013.10.17.html
As you know, I don't pay much attention to this, I trade chart patterns and mean revision. I'm not a fundamental guy.
I see. So it's envisioned as a long-term 'chronic' medication used to keep potassium levels within normal limits. Many diabetic patients have hypertension, and drugs such as ACE-inhibitors or ARBs (angiotensin receptor blockers) are considered first-line therapy. ACE-Is + ARBs also tend to raise potassium levels, so it makes sense to develop a medication that counters that adverse effect (it's not always an adverse effect- patients who take diuretics for hypertension will lose potassium, and benefit from ACE-Is or ARBs for that reason).
DeleteANR- Have I mentioned....
ReplyDeletehttp://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/?iid=H_INV_QL
ReplyDeleteLooking better.
dudes - ZGNX?
ReplyDeletePurdue's upcoming HydroContin will decimate ZGNX. JMO.
DeleteDoes Purdue's product contain compounds that will have adverse effects on legitimate cronic pain sufferers? If yes, I guess junkies and addicts will love it b/c they don't give a shit about their livers anyway?
DeleteTrivia (except for parties involved): Relative to Tuesday's closing price, the 1030 am close was +1.83% @ 63.54, whereas the 330 pm close was -0.19% @ 62.28.
ReplyDeleteAustralia gives back all of Tuesday's gains at the open.
ReplyDeleteThe biggest buzz in SF right now:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sfgate.com/crime/article/California-state-Sen-Leland-Yee-arrested-in-5350602.php
FB - There's our $60 price.....
ReplyDeleteYNDX - Target price is $1583, according to finviz.... must be a mistake. p/s is merely 11, probably another mistake as likely most of the other info provided is erroneous.
ReplyDeleteSony's VR headset looks like they've been working on it for a while, kinda right up their ally, no?
ReplyDeleteUnreal. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ecb-faces-uncharted-waters-with-negative-rates-2014-03-26
ReplyDeleteWhen do we return to the good old days when it made sense to put money in the bank and earn interest?
DeleteWhy should the central bank be paying interest to banks that won't lend to the public? The US FED also should not be doing this.
Deletehttp://mebfaber.com/2014/03/26/why-value-investing-is-so-hard-russian-edition/
ReplyDeleteWow, is what I think about that NWLI response, well done. As far as Russia is concerned, Putin 's abilities are not something I'm willing to match wits with.
DeleteWhat I mean by this is I happen to believe in my heart that Putin is positioning Russia into the global trade arena but he's going about it wrongly by supporting dictators who aren't adverse to all types of human rights atrocities. Not saying our own government is beyond theft but I don't see citizens being shot dead on the capital mall while the US defends or worse, sends arms to those who have.
DeleteCapitol, I'm tired...
DeleteI dunno man, I just don't see how silver can get too much cheaper unless the market crashes, and I don't believe that's gonna happen.
ReplyDeleteThat's what they are saying over in MITK land.
DeleteThose guys in MITK land are nearly as numb to reality as physicians are to the needs of their patients.
DeleteENPH - Knockout move?
ReplyDeleteI keep thinking we get a potential entry after a Q1 miss.
DeleteOpened PBR @ 12.
ReplyDeleteOpened VALE @ 13.16,
Opened EWZ @ 42.6x.
Opened RSX @ 23.
You know my timing sux. If you're looking to follow, I would wait.
Start firing when you see the whites of their eyes unless they're secret service agents, (in which case they're wearing dark sun glasses) fire when you smell the booze).
Delete----! I lucked out this time.
DeleteYou're beating the crap out of BALT, an easy task.
Delete"Geopolitical concerns in Crimea" - I guess this is having no impact which will eventually fade once Putin's done screwing around, must be something else?
ReplyDeleteInteresting stuff from Twiggs for fundies.
ReplyDeletehttp://goldstocksforex.com/2014/03/27/is-the-sp-500-overvalued/
Good info, thanks for sharing that.
DeleteOGRe?
ReplyDeleteLong YNDX for a trade at $28.98. Close below $28.6 and I'm outsville.
ReplyDeleteHoly shit what a move in these stocks. Awesome call 2nd.
DeleteBy the way, YNDX is the Google of Russia. Here's a quick look at their growth over the past 5 years:
http://financials.morningstar.com/income-statement/is.html?t=YNDX®ion=usa&culture=en-US&ownerCountry=USA
These figures are in Rubles (so too are Yahoo estimates).
Oh my, imagine that, a scary sell off starting three days prior to bullish econ data....
ReplyDeleteI'm happy to see a rally. This reinforces the belief that dip buying works. I'd love to be able to get a chance to re-enter a Russell 2000 short near resistance.
ReplyDeleteSold YNDX too late. $29.45.
ReplyDeleteLooks like a great short.
DeleteAA - upside breakout
ReplyDeleteIts amazing to me how complacent a lot of people are. I love it!
ReplyDeleteOh the beauty of max leverage during a selloff. Leading stocks won't stop until they're down 50%+. Doesn't matter if they have great fundies...if margins calls come people will sell regardless.
DeleteThere's still plenty of dip buyers...see PLUG FNMA etc. That's a good thing if you're thinking markets continue lower.
ReplyDeleteFLWS - Now I see how they are, flipping dimes.
ReplyDeleteIf you believe trendlines work there is a trendline support on BALT around $5.60
ReplyDeleteLong YNDX again at $28.83
ReplyDeleteAdded at $28.58. I'm assuming that this breakdown reverses but if it doesn't I'll be out by EOD.
DeleteRubles!? I have to figure that out too? Man I feel a headache coming on.
ReplyDelete1 Ruble = $0.028
DeleteThey did $1.1 Billion revs last 12 months
Earnings were around $350 Million
EPS = 21
Top line growth = 40%
This has been on my watchlist for a while though. Could potentially be a good long term entry if you're looking at something longer term. Doesn't matter for my trade since I'll be out by days end most likely.
Wow. ENPH is now way below my cheapest sale price.
ReplyDeleteWow. I'm getting interested.
DeleteKinda think $7.20 holds.... But knot sure.
DeleteBaltic Dry Index (BDI) -84 1412
ReplyDeleteFB downside done?
ReplyDelete15*F @ Dulles airport last night, a record low.
ReplyDeleteYesterday, LZEMX broke out to the highest level since early February, EEM did it today. I just placed an order to move 1/2 of my 401K into LZEMX, with a mental stop at early February lows. Will keep adding to LZEMX if it starts pulling back toward Feb. lows.
ReplyDeleteAll my "super stocks" are getting crushed today. ALTI is approaching its previous early Feb low. If that low is violated, then I have to be out...
ReplyDeleteSCON is also touching its lower trend line now...
Just for the heck of it, I just purchased 500 more shares of ALTI at $4.23 and placed a sell stop limit order for all my 1400 shares at $4.04/$4.00, just below the previous low.
ReplyDeleteI feel so lame. Been buying UUP all day. I have a pretty large position in it.
ReplyDeleteI see nothing wrong with that but it tracks the dollar so it's like 2x?
DeleteSold YNDX for a loss at $28.61. Avg was around $28.72 I think. Made $600 on both trades whoopee!
ReplyDeleteRH- Wow, huge.
ReplyDeleteHad a volume spike today too, so did RTH
DeleteShit looks like it might go red tmrw at this rate
DeleteBSBR - Closed a penny less than open.....
ReplyDeleteI remember thinking a few weeks ago that when this market starts going down on no reason at all then I would get scared / cautious. We had the fed taper scare and went higher. Cyprus? Higher. Crimea? Higher. Etcetera etcetera. The reasons have gone on for a long time and yet we kept going higher. Now? No one can pinpoint why we are going down. So we should ultimately go higher, they say. Well remember back in 2009 when things turned but we couldn't figure out why? It was the price that mattered not the news. I think we head lower and have a recession coming, possibly. Not a nasty one but enough to knock stocks down 20%. I don't know of any analyst that's bearish on year end targets. No one is bearish on the us economy. Shit even roubini is bullish. This article says it best:
ReplyDeleteibankcoin.com/flyblog/2014/03/27/it-was-supposed-to-be-different/
"It was the price that mattered not the news."
DeleteWelcome to the dark side!
Last week, I shared my plan for shorting this market: short IWM upon the break below the 117 level, which marked January highs and then the double bottom in Feb/March. As soon as IWM broke below this level (on Monday), I bought some IWM puts. Now that IWM has descended some ways below this level, I think a decent exit strategy from these puts would be to close them if IWM rises above 117 or if those puts double/triple -- let's see which one happens first. :)
ReplyDeleteBULK shipping - Isn't BDI expected to skyrocket as the US goes into recession? First sign of recession involves the yield curve flattening, right?
ReplyDeleteBut, but, but, March is NEVER a bad month (ever)!!!
ReplyDeleteACI - This one was only up 5% today, doesn't seem to be collapsing. BTU gained some too, could be ready to make a run?
ReplyDeleteARO - Wonder if FB is looking to buy out this brand?
ReplyDeleteEPAM - Can we get one more leg down?
ReplyDeletePer Yra Harris
ReplyDeleteA good barometer for the success of ABE‘s new initiative will have to be the NIKKEI, especially the Japanese financial stocks. Many analysts believe the Abe Government will succeed because the new fiscal year will bring spending plans forward to insure against a drag from decreased consumer demand. In 1997 the Japanese government was slashing government spending while the BOJ was not an active participant through any type of liquidity provisions. Will it be different this time? Again, watch the Japanese bank stocks as a barometer for the success of Abenomics. The NIKKEI is sitting on the 200-day moving average. It’s very convenient for those looking for a way to measure risk levels, either being long or short.
Great entry on Brasil, 2nd.
ReplyDeleteInteresting:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/101532377
TC - Gap up closed, back to being whatever you want it to be?
ReplyDeleteEmerging Markets in fact gap up overnight.
ReplyDelete(a) EWZ off premarket @ 44.90 (+5.2% one-day return versus opening basis of 42.6x).
(b) FXI off premarket @ 35.71 (+2.3% one-day return versus opening basis of 34.9x).
(c) PBR off premarket @ 13.05 (+8.7% one-day return versus opening basis of 12). Still holding a partial position.
(d) VALE off premarket @ 13.70 (+4% one-day return versus opening basis of 13.16).
Still holding RSX, RYWVX.
Wow dude awesome trades. DJIA ripping today. Will be interesting to see if this holds and a bottom is put in.
DeleteGood work 2nd, I'm still hanging onto TUR for a bit as long as it moves in my favor.
DeleteBaltic Dry Index (BDI) -39 1373
ReplyDeleteLong TZA $15.92.
ReplyDeleteI have been eyeing a move to 1,161 to 1,165 in /TF (Russell futures). That's the low from 3/3, 3/14, 3/24, and 3/25. I'll stop out on a move above 1,168. I'm playing the 1980 move where it breaks down then trades sideways for a few days before breaking lower. Watch it probably rips to 1,200 to form a lower high...
DeleteIt's All About the King:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ytsworld.com/uploaded_images/dollar_bill_yt_world_challenge-739266.jpg
remember ECB meets next week. could really spike the dollar next week.
DeleteI see a spike in the dollar not unlike the recent spike in natty gas
DeleteFor 5 years now everyone has been talking about the coming crash in the dollar. And yet 5 years later the dollar is still higher and has been putting in higher highs all along. It has traded sideways for like 18 months. It's getting ready for a MAJOR move soon. I say higher. Much higher.
DeleteIf this happens, then as long as the US market adapts to this ok then its quite bullish for emerging equities.
DeleteThe charts of STV and ELON no longer look clearly bullish to me. So I exited those positions with a very small loss. Used the proceeds to add 2K shares of SCON at $2.79. SCON is now touching the lower trendline since Nov 2013. Let's see if it can muster up a move from here. If it drops below the Feb low, then I am out.
ReplyDeleteORCL broke out to a new 10-year high today, despite initially poor reaction to earnings last week. This bodes well for my calls that will vest on June. Unless, of course, the whole market crashes...
ReplyDeleteI was debating yesterday whether I should purchase ALTI or PNPFF on the drop. Chose ALTI. So far it looks like it was not the best choice. ALTI did pop, however, so I am placing a mental stop under yesterday's lows at $4.21. If they do not hold, then most likely the Feb lows at $4.06 do not hold as well. And if that happens, then the nice cup shape the lows have traced out since Nov 2013 will also be gone, and hence there would be no reason to be in that stock.
ReplyDeleteThe way PNPFF and SIL are rallying, outperforming the underlying PMs, is suggesting that the double bottom in SLV may hold after all. So I have just added 6 more Jan 2015 calls on SLV at $1.88. Will be out of all my calls if that double bottom is broken (i.e., SLV drops below $18.50, which is a very tight stop with a small possible loss). If it holds, however, then the gains can be huge. Nice asymmetric trade.
ReplyDeleteRYWVX closed the 1030 window up +1.79% @ 66.01. Not exactly thrilled with the gain, but I'll take it.
ReplyDeleteNow you're getting greedy!
DeleteYes.
DeleteIWM has given back 3/4 of todays gains already. If it closes red I'd have to imagine that spills over to a messy Monday / Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteSold TZA at $16.28
ReplyDeleteShort SPY $185.78, long SDS $28.74
ReplyDeleteThis market just seems really weak despite the headline figures showing big up days.
DeleteIt is weak. Utilities have been outperforming for months.
DeleteLots of dip buyers and momo players just praying for a rally to hold.
DeleteI know it won't last but it's nice buying these ultrashorts and being in the money right away. That doesn't happen in a bull market.
DeleteCouldn't find enough shares of SPY to short?
ReplyDeleteHa
Delete