(a) Get Together.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hbrn9eXEKWk A song written by the late Chet Powers (aka
Dino Valenti of the Quicksilver Messenger Service). Three of us caught an early live performance
by the Youngbloods at the Santa Clara County Fairgrounds in 1968. I was 14, standing at the threshold of
adolescence and in the midst of a creative period in (popular) music unrivaled
since. The (relatively) simple chord
progressions + lyrics that echoed the social changes swirling around us allowed
even 14-year-olds to play convincing 'covers.'
(b) Ridgetop. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMBU4kR70z4&feature=kp Several years later Young would record a beautiful
sax-infused homage to his home in Marin.
The video footage captures a 'gestalt' of the era.
ReplyDeleteAn act of aggression by Russia encourages others to act out.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/turkey-shoots-down-syrian-jet-2014-03-23?link=MW_home_latest_ne
In the 'just a matter of time' category.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/should-congress-limit-mortgage-deduction-2014-03-22
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2103853-a-review-of-the-msci-emerging-markets-index?isDirectRoadblock=false&source=email_rt_article_readmore&uprof=45
ReplyDeleteNice overview of country/sector weightings in EEM.
In support of TZA:
ReplyDeletehttp://fat-pitch.blogspot.com/2014/03/weekly-market-summary_22.html
The "Bull Markets at the five year point" shouts to me that if you have long term gains from 09 or after you should be pairing and not be a pig.
DeleteI think like you, I would rather wait for the correction than be bold at such an extension.
Nice site
http://investorplace.com/2014/02/emerging-markets-fxi-fmm-spy-caf/#.Uy7-SeDn-cx
ReplyDeleteRight now, EM priced for Silent Spring. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silent_spring
Treat. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXkGVAwWIrk Video footage above includes Santana's keyboardist Gregg Rolie, which leads me to include this 1970 version of his instrumental improvisation.
ReplyDeleteSign of the times.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/pope-appoints-eight-to-sex-abuse-commission-2014-03-22
'The Prey.' Another great French thriller. NFLX.
ReplyDeletehttp://247wallst.com/economy/2014/03/21/ten-american-cities-with-the-highest-unemployment/
ReplyDeleteThe recession wasted the Central Valley. Won't be much longer before it springs back, IMO.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/thick-data-lessons-from-stoma-bags-and-lego-bricks-2014-03-23
ReplyDeleteWow. Consider the relevance to almost aspect of life, from raising kids to selling services.
Great article. We are considering changing our business around to accurately reflect our constantly changing customer habits. It's always difficult as a biz owner to understand what your customers want without asking them directly. Lots of companies rely too heavily on stats.
DeleteHow so? Just curious as what you could change.
DeleteThe thing with waiting is that while the overall indices could go higher, eventually within the next year or two (probably sooner rather than later) you will get a nasty correction (i.e., 20%+) that will drop some exciting companies' stocks 50% or more.
ReplyDeleteI think it's wild that longer term investors are left with the following choices:
(1) Invest in small caps at their highest valuation ever
(2) Invest in blue chips at the higher end of their long term valuations
(3) Invest in Treasurys at their most expensive valuation ever
(4) Invest in Emerging Markets near 2009 levels
And yet you have most people choosing 1, 2, or 3. Certainly the vast majority of traders are in love with the US equities market.
You've also got Europe which is reasonable valuation and coming out of a recession.
DeleteOr financials and tech which are at the low end of their valuation ranges, according to Cramer. Haven't spent much time on tech, but financials are cheap.
Has anyone seen my missing elephant, where could he be hiding?
ReplyDeleteTA - Got a little extra volume, buy when everyone's selling?
ReplyDeleteFLWS - I'd call bull flag if I didn't know better than to think positively.
ReplyDelete"The news regarding Office 365 is expected to be announced in San Francisco next week on March 27. It certainly seems as if a new Microsoft has emerged."
ReplyDeleteI keep thinking about the whole dollar trade setup. Look at the long positions heading into the last Fed meeting:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/cot/2014/03/17/US-Dollar-Speculative-Longs-Near-Lowest-Level-in-Over-a-Year.html
That's extreme bearishness on the dollar. Consider the fact that the US Dollar was at 78 when QE3 was announced on 9/13/12 and its now at >80. There was about $1.5 Trillion worth of stimulus added over this period and yet the dollar went UP. I really think there could be a MAJOR move higher within the next 6 to 9 months...much higher than people are expecting. Remember, the Fed is tapering while Japan, Europe and most likely China are stepping up stimulus. The move could possibly be as high as /DX going to 100. S&P 500 companies get 34% of revenues from overseas. Could have a really big impact on markets.
I'm actually thinking about opening up a longer term options position in UUP to play this. UUP isn't the greatest way of playing this but I don't trade options so I'm thinking this is the best way to play a near term move much higher. If the dollar goes up 25% then UUP should also go up 25% which would equate to a move from $21.5 to $26.5, roughly. You can buy the January 2015 $23 calls at around $0.12 each. If this plays out, they would be worth over $3, a 25-bagger.
Deletemeant but I don't trade futures...that's probably the best way.
DeleteI'm not sure why the $US isn't higher now than it actually is,
DeleteCopper turning green.
ReplyDeleteHang Seng +1.91%
ReplyDeleteShanghai +0.9%.
South Korea +0.55%.
Singapore +1.25%
Taiwan +0.33%.
India +1.38%.
Malaysia +0.73%.
Taking partial profits in FXI (China) and EWZ (Brazil) premarket.
DeleteClosing VALE and EEM.
DeleteClosing remainder of EWZ/FXI.
DeleteEurope has mostly reversed early weakness in all indexes.
ReplyDeleteBaltic Dry Index (BDI) +3 1602
ReplyDeleteBALT - Okay, this one is seriously dropping, but volume is starting to kick up a little.
ReplyDeleteTZA - Friday was the knockout, I guess.
Whether it truly happens or not, just the perception that the era of corporate buybacks aided by the massive stimulus from the Fed has ended is a very important change. I wouldn't minimize this potential change in sentiment.
ReplyDeleteThe question is, did corporates overpay?
DeleteRYWVX off @ the 1030 am window. Remaining EM positions off here. Back to a neutral stance on EM (as well as a negative stance on US equities).
ReplyDeleteGlad to see you kept the faith with TZA, tof.
ReplyDeleteNot that she deserves it.
Deleteits only a gain when you sell
DeleteGASS, some lift
ReplyDeleteNDQ -1.6%.
ReplyDeleteGDX -3%.
SLW -4.6%.
This is old hat, we've seen the SPX move 20pts down and 20pts back up in one day numerous times, haven't we?
DeleteIndeed we have.
DeleteSLW -6%.
ReplyDeleteAll of a sudden our shit isn't worth nothin' no more and shortly afterward it will be oversold, LOL. This ridiculous shit will drive you nutz and that's the goal!
ReplyDeleteOkay, all I need to know is if the morons still intend on selling their BALT?
ReplyDeleteGeoff made the right call (exit miners) last week.
ReplyDeleteWhich explains the number of comments today.
DeleteAmazing, I've never heard him say that! Maybe he's worth reading after all.... (Big maybe, he's being influenced by someone who has only disdain for others.)
DeleteWow. I didn't realize just how much PCLN rallied. It went up 25% from the early Feb market selloff to the new all time highs. This after a 25-fold increase from the 2008/9 lows. This chart just reeks blowoff parabolic top:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=PCLN+Interactive#symbol=PCLN;range=my
SVM - Chinese stocks aren't worth a plug nickle.
ReplyDeleteUUP - Quite a move for the $US today, not!! Granted, it probably should move up but EM currencies are already pretty beat up aren't they?
ReplyDeleteDo we close at the highs today? 50/50. Also 50/50 we close at the lows.
ReplyDeleteIn other words, not the kind of bet to make.
DeleteI still like the long trade on EM. Hopefully another entry presents in the next few days.
ReplyDeleteNot seeing much in the way of panic headlines. Bodes well for TZA.
ReplyDeleteWe'll see. No one knows in the short term. Although the following suggests sentiment is definitely tilted toward the extreme optimism side:
Delete*Hearing things like "Goldilocks" with respect to the markets / economy on CNBC on Friday morning
*Traders openly mocking anything bearish (like the 1929 parallel)
*Not hearing a single downside target by analysts / commentators on 2014
*Traders brushing off Fed tapering impacts on trader sentiment
http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/?iid=H_INV_QL
DeleteBottoms typically seen sub-20.
I guess I misunderstood the "Goldilocks" comment as sarcasm directed toward market valuation, ie: bearish not bullish.
Deletehttp://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/03/24/el-erian-markets-should-be-worrying-about-ukraine/?mod=MW_home_latest_news
ReplyDeleteAs a protection for my ORCL employee-given options (which get vested every June and which currently have some decent gain in them), I just bought a couple of January 2015 $120 puts on IWM at $11.07. If the whole market tanks, it will surely take ORCL down with it.
ReplyDeleteRYWYX closed the 1030 window +1.03% @ 60.58. ----in' A.
ReplyDeleteA little disappointing relative to the earlier opening gap in EEM, but always nice to walk away from the casino with a gain.
DeleteTUR - In, 1/2 position @ $42.80
ReplyDeleteThis one would never work for me. Every time I see it I add a letter at the end.
DeleteN?
DeleteKind of like WOR.
DeleteTastes like chicken! :)
DeleteOr beefu? (TURF)
DeleteHAYN - Stainless steel is one material that makes our life the way it is.
Guess I shoulda bot a full plate of TUR(key)
DeleteMassacre underway in the miners.
ReplyDeleteAGCO - That woman from India keeps buying this one on behalf of that Indian tractor company.
ReplyDeleteIcahan says the market is fake, overvalued, a product of FED mingling and will sell off big.
ReplyDeleteSo when does the FED drop the deposit rate back to 0.0% or is that done already?
ReplyDelete1852 - Today's line in the sand.
ReplyDeleteBears need 1848
DeleteRTH - Needs to hang onto $59.60, looks like ih&s don't it?
DeleteDJIA turned green.
ReplyDeleteBSBR - Interesting that my position turns green (ever so slightly, flat is more accurate) the very day the market sails off the edge of the world.
ReplyDeleteBSBR stands for bullshit barometer.
DeleteThe BS games really pizz me off, this shouldn't be any f'in game.
DeleteSold the TZA at $15.5. Nothing terribly bearish in my mind.
ReplyDeleteWell done.
DeleteNice hedge against the BALT, assuming you still have it.
DeleteI completely sold out of BALT at $6.7 to $7.1. M
DeleteEven better, thought you sold half. That musta been BB in NM...
DeleteMarch began at 1859 (current resistance).
ReplyDeleteGold is down a heck of a lot more than platinum, sell plat buy gold? No f---in' way!
ReplyDeleteLooks like silver is a bouncing ball.
Re-entered TZA at a few pennies lower. I will close out if the bears can't close the Russell 2000 lower than 1,176. Otherwise it's nothing but higher lows:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXRUSSELL%3ARUT&ei=0HYwU-DcKsamsgfoFw
Needless to say I have my doubts about the bears.
DeleteACI - I thought we switched to flower power, so wonder why this one has lifted??????
ReplyDeleteOutsville on the TZA re-entry for a small loss. Bears ain't got sh*t yo...yet
ReplyDeleteLet's get this turkey cooking, roast them nutty shorts!
ReplyDeleteSomething is definitely going on with AAPL. Valuation is solid but chart looks good too. Screw it I just bought a little at $539.33. If the market doesn't go down from here this should outperform.
ReplyDeleteFirst the deal with MSFTy releasing Office and now Comcast, I guess the future looks even brighter.
DeleteWho knows. I also like that the boring tech names are waking up. And I honestly think people have soured a bit on AAPL...I read that "only" 70% of analysts have a buy rating on AAPL vs 89% at it's peak and a 5 year avg of 85%. Can it go up 50% this year? Probably not. How about a trade up to 15X earnings...$640?
DeleteI agree that they're in the commodity business so it should get a lower multiple; however, iTunes is a very fast growing part of their business and that is a highly recurring revenue model that has very high margins.
DeleteFLWS - Off 5% today, Hoof Hearted?
ReplyDeletePAL lifted 20% today....
ReplyDeleteGood stuff out of Saut:
ReplyDeletePicture this: You're an investor starting out in the 1940s after World War II came to an end. Your own experience in the contemporary history of the stock market would've taught you that bonds were the safer, and superior asset allocation over the long-term. Indeed, Wall Street history showed that the rate of return on bonds had matched the stock return over 70 some years, with far less volatility and risk! That is a longer track record than the Ibbotson memory bank, which every "bull" snorts about to prove that stocks are the superior asset allocation for today's investors. Moreover, there was always the horrible memory of the Great Crash to humble any upstart who dared to say, "This time is different."
No wonder this unforgettable and painfully learned experience spawned the generation that developed the accepted market model that whenever the dividend yield on stocks approached bond yields, equities became risky. The savvy seers of that time built their investing models -- and their Wall Street careers -- on giving market advice based on the stock dividend and bond yield relationship. Verily, until 1958 stocks generally continued that relationship, providing higher yields than the interest rate return on bonds.
Then came 1958, when the dividend yield on the major equity indices slipped below the interest rate on bonds. The savvy seers of the time turned cautious to bearish and warned that stocks were becoming overvalued and risky. No wonder, as their own memory bank, their entire investing history, had suggested this. After all, stocks were already riskier and legally junior to bonds, providing no promise of a return of capital. So when stock yields went below bond yields -- look out -- it had always worked before.
But, this time really was different. Their models didn't seem to work. Stocks kept going higher and the gap between the current return for stocks versus bonds got larger and larger. Shockingly, to the then-pundits, stocks leapt 60% in real terms in the 10 years after 1958, up through 1968. As the market went higher and higher, during those 10 years, some of those once-savvy seers turned even more bearish. Now their once-loyal listeners tuned them out, calling them stopped clocks. "This was a new era," causing those old stopped clocks to fail to recognize that modern investors appreciate the growth characteristics of stocks more than the stodgy fixed return on bonds. Moreover, the reinvestment of profits to ensure future earnings expansion was more important than the dividend return. Money managers seeking superior portfolio performance were more than willing to pay up for higher growth. Then came the double-dip bear market of 1968 to 1974, and most of the gains from the 1958 to 1968 bull run were given back.
Now fast-forward to the 1966 - 1982 period where stocks virtually went nowhere and topped out every time they had a peekaboo "look" above Dow (INDEXDJX:.DJI) 1000. Another group of savvy seers, meanwhile, had developed yet another classic, time-honored model of valuation based on historical Dow/ S&P (INDEXSP:.INX) yields, and book values, as well as P/E ratios. Their models had been backtested and continued to prove accurate. Hereto, they worked well until late 1982, much like the previous cycle's venerable pundits' models had worked prior to 1958. Then the August 1982 bull market began its run above 1000. It leaped to 2722 by August 1987. It went on to overcome the crash in October 1987, and the bank/real estate threat, along with the Iraq/ Kuwait episode in 1990. By the spring of 1998 it had run up to more than 9200. As the market went higher and higher, some of those second-generation, once-savvy seers saw their models flash warning after warning. However, anyone who got out of stocks on the basis of such metrics was left behind and lost out on a lot of profits. Those who stubbornly stuck with their valuation measures in many cases turned even more bearish.
Now I want you to study this chart.
Source: FactSet
DeleteClick to enlarge
Notice there have been three "range-bound" markets since 1929. Pay particular attention to the 1966 - 1982 range-y market. I was in the business back then, and when the market finally broke decisively above the 1000 ceiling -- which had actually existed since 1964 -- the pundits of that era ignored the pricing action of the markets and stubbornly clung to their valuation metrics that had worked during the 1966 -1982 time frame. Accordingly they stayed bearish for years and finally felt vindicated with the 1987 crash. In retrospect, however, the crash was one heck of a buying opportunity, but those negative nabobs never bought. Go back and study the chart again. Note that every time the stock market has broken decisively above the top side of a 10+ years "range-bound" market, it has always been a new secular bull market.
More recently, we decisively broke out of the 2000 - 2012 trading range market in 1Q13 when both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (INDEXDJX:DJT) traded to new all-time highs. Yet, hereto many seers of the new millennium era continue to stubbornly cling to the models that worked over that 12-year time frame. The valuation measure du jour this time is the Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings Ratio (CAPE), which has kept those using it out of the rally for the last five years. CAPE is defined as price divided by the average of 10 years of earnings adjusted for inflation. Granted, CAPE has had a decent track record in the past, but in previous missives I have argued why I think the earnings experiences we had between 2000 - 2010 were aberrations that have left the CAPE showing stocks were overvalued for the last five years. I think the American Industrial Renaissance (onshoring) and the move to Energy Independence are transformative and profoundly bullish over the long term. Think of it like layering Saudi Arabian oil on top of America's industrial might -- indeed, transformative.
George Santayana once said, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." Yet in the stock market, those who remembered history in 1958, and again in 1982, were doomed to become prisoners of their models and condemned to skepticism. The same is likely to happen here. To be sure, if you don't change your indicators for the changing causal relationships, you are doomed to fail.
The call for this week: All of the major indices I monitor remain above their respective key moving averages, suggesting there is more room on the upside. Dow Theory confirms that the primary trend of the equity markets is "up." Moreover, the financials continue to be strong, which is a good sign because typically the banks top out months prior to a top in the overall markets. That said, "Up mornings and down afternoons is not particularly good near-term market action"; and, that is exactly what we got last Friday. Yes, I know it was a quadruple "Witch Twitch," but to give back the opening 125-point early morning gain, and then close down 28 points, is not good action. The S&P 500 did about the same, except in its case it made a new intraday all-time high and then closed near the low end of the range for Friday's session. Not to be outdone, the Nasdaq-100 (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) actually registered what a technical analyst would term a bearish engulfing candlestick chart pattern on Friday on very heavy volume (see chart below).
DeleteSource: MarketQ
Click to enlarge
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Line for the Dow fell to a new reaction low, ditto the action in the NY Composite Index. Consequently, if the SPX closes below its 21-day moving average of 1860.35 it suggests a pullback to the 1835 - 1840 support level; and if we breach that level, a deeper decline towards the 1780 - 1800 zone should be in store. This morning, however, the SPX futures are better by about four points and there is a full charge of energy in my proprietary models. The question then becomes, is it going to be released on the upside or the downside?
I agree with Saut longer term for sure. I agree that things like the CAPE and Market Cap to GDP are misguiding investors. In the past 10 years we had two nasty earnings recessions which is not normal. Additionally, the market cap to GDP doesn't take into account the enormous growth in overseas earnings just in the past 14 years or so since Buffett suggested using that as a valuation metric.
ReplyDeleteShort term hiccups will come and we will probably get a 20% or so correction within the next 1-2 years. But longer term its hard to argue with stocks going anywhere but up.
I would greatly appreciate it if MY stocks would go up! :)
DeleteAs far as an Industrial Renaissance goes, I can't imagine the US EPA will allow it, we've been told repeatedly we don't want dirty industry jobs.
DeleteANGO - Testing positive sloped neckline of H&S, passing so far. Closed the March gap up today, too.
ReplyDeleteEWZ kicked ass today. So too did BSBR. Also looks like that downgrade of the coals could have been the bottom.
ReplyDeleteshit EWZ down big after hours. Any ideas? dividend?
DeleteDebt downgrade. This could be one helluva entry point. Maybe they can drop it down to around $40???
DeleteTake a trip to the buffet, and what I do come back to? More action, yo!
DeleteELON - Looks like inflection point, which way does it go?
ReplyDeleteI bought 1K worth of January 2015 $19 calls on SLV today, with the mental stop in mind if SLV breaks below the July 2013 lows of $18. The downside on this trade is small (since a well-defined stop level is very nearby), but the upside is huge if the July-December double bottom holds.
ReplyDeleteIn order to space out my purchases in the PM sector, I moved down the buy limit for 5000 shares of PNPFF to $0.42. Just to be clear: I am buying SLV and PNPFF not because of some opinion I formed about their future direction, but because the charts right now look like the bottom has been made. If that bottom is violated, I'll exit all my PM positions...
DeleteI think Emerging Markets offer a compelling entry at these levels.
DeleteCP- Your elephant might have just walked down my street. Is your gray?
ReplyDeleteCould be him, he has a long trunk and two short tusks. You'll know he's been in your fridge by checking the cheesecake for footprints!
DeleteSilver - WTF, Is there some kind of emergency liquidation going on in China or something?
ReplyDeleteTDW - Gave up some of Friday's gains but not all, the gap up still exists.
ReplyDeleteLike how Saut's article calls out the CAPE followers like Hussman. Think he is right too.
ReplyDeleteHope you can time the pullback properly TOF. I'm sure we get one sometime. I just know how much money I lost trying to do the with the financials last cycle, so I'm not trying, but someone has to get it right.
Also, looks like PMs may be starting their next down cycle. Will be really interested to see where it ends this time.
BB - Hey I figure I made 3% while people lost 1-2% so that puts me 4-5% ahead ha. Seriously, though, I'm not quite compelled to make any big bets right now. There are some things I'm getting more interested in. I waited too long for an entry in IBKC and that one took off like a bat out of hell.
DeleteYeah, if you can make an extra percent or three while the market doesn't that is just gravy and helps a lot with outperformance. I used to do a lot of arb plays with the same idea, but haven't found any lately (like for a couple of years now).
Deletei.e., there's nothing I really like right now but I have slacked off a bit lately in looking for other stuff to buy outside of the steels and shippers. i bought some AAPL today mainly because I think it could go to $600 if the market rebounds some here given the renewed interest in the boring tech names. i know you don't like them but the iTunes biz is a very valuable part of their business and has a huge recurring revenue stream with very high margins. That alone makes this company worth more than 12X earnings.
DeleteWenrt down to Miami South Beach today.Was fun, but only one topless girl and she was being very discreet, so kind of didnt meet my expectations - kind of like Cara - haha
ReplyDeleteOkay, so it never happened if there are no pics!
Deletehttp://www.seadooforum.com/image.php?u=65307&dateline=1393384746
Thanks for lowering my expectations. I was able to beat that easily!
DeleteHey 2nd - Do you know anything about EXAS?
ReplyDelete"they are developing a colon cancer test developed by Mayo Clinic -- it is non-invasive and would be used in place of a colonoscopy - you know how many people hate that. They just had good news again -- it will remain high risk since the company is almost all-in on this but if they do it the stock will be a massive performer. Yes........I have owned it a long time and up nicely but have not sold it though I did trade some for a while. Do OWN DD........never listen to ANYONE without doing own DD - you buy it you own it. Have others as well but look at this one. ntn has to show us the money now - can they bring it down to the bottom line. Buffalo Wild Wings did not put the devices into their stores for no reason - the trial went very very well. But again - high risk/high reward play. Boolean Less"
Sorry. No take on that one.
Deletehttp://yragharris.com/2014/03/24/allyellen/
ReplyDeleteOne of the toughest reads out there.
DeleteEEM quietly taking off here. Brazil shrugged off the downgrade.
ReplyDeleteKinda feels like they're sucking in DJIA buyers just prior to leaving the dance floor.
ReplyDeleteThey're going for ATH's
DeleteYou'll need to translate that one, bro.
Deleteall time high's
DeleteGimme altitude with attitude!
Deleteseems like all of them got the all time highs so they'll try with the big dogs too.
Deletelast night i went through the entire list of stocks the Fly listed here as the ones he's targeting:
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2014/03/24/i-have-a-crazy-idea/
In looking at this list I couldn't believe just how absurdly priced every single one of those POS stocks are. I know there's worry about bubbles and whatnot but how can anyone classify these stocks as even remotely fairly valued?
Quite a morning for me. I sold the AAPL at $541ish and put in an order, full size, for TZA at $15 which got filled. Figured they would run IWM back up to $178 which they did. Now I'm reloaded with TZA looking for a move back down to yesterday's lows. My suspicion is this is a move slightly lower over the next few days, bringing the high to low for the S&P down about 3-4%. IWM drops about 6%.
ReplyDeleteShort IWM $118.07
ReplyDeleteAwesome.
Delete----in' A, bro.
Deleteskittish market.
DeleteIf this reversal holds and markets end in the red then I'd expect follow through tomorrow. It's still pretty controlled so I doubt we'll get a ton of downside.
ReplyDeleteHIMX taking it on the chin the past 2 weeks.
ReplyDeleteBACML just downgraded it, I guess I forgot to post that but meant to.
DeleteTOF, your on fire.
ReplyDeleteSold RJA and GASS had em both for a while, still like GASS but weekly shows possible H&S with possiblr resistence at 12, who knows.
Very nice job on the RJA,!
DeleteEEM not budging.
ReplyDeleteBALT - Man, this thing is stinking up my port again, feel like cutting it lose.
ReplyDeleteopened up strong, chart still decent from daily, if you have the stomach, its an add if your LT investor.
Deletebut agree mkt is skittish here and that's the issue
Well it did perk up and it's a 1/2 position so maybe I'll keep it and see if EM's come roaring back.
DeleteSo a strong open and then selling is a sign of weakness to me, not sure if that's a correct assumption.
DeleteEWZ, looking at weekly, this mkt corrected 50% from its triple top of 09-11 (easy in rear view mirror). The range is 81.34 to say 38, so agree with you guys this is a compelling opportunity for the patient among us, BB style.
ReplyDeleteThe mkt hit a high of 102 pre creash.
I have had a starter position for a while and will add soon, just not on 7 up days. Hard not seeing this as a winner 2-4 or 3-5 years out.
It's possible to just play these three PBR, VALE, and BSBR vs EWZ.
T3 - I've been watching PBR very closely. Think it's looking really good here.
DeleteHow are you feeling? Did you guys make it to TX?
Covered IWM short at 116.7999. Sold 1/4 of TZA at $15.55
ReplyDeleteI think the RUT closes below 1,176 to put in a lower low but I still think we get some choppiness. Even if we follow the December 1980 pattern which is what I've been looking at for a while now since this period is so similar with that period then we should have another day or two of congestion with failed breakouts.
Deletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^GSPC+Interactive#symbol=^GSPC;range=1y
If not and we still follow that pattern then there will be a good bounce opportunity around 1730 for the S&P.
Sold 1/4 TZA at $15.6
DeleteAlrighty all out TZA at $15.61
DeleteIf DAX can hang onto ~9200 it might be enuff to keep the bilge pump running? "DAX - 9,313.04 124.27(1.35%) 11:35AM EDT"
DeleteHimax Technologies, Inc: LCoS visibility needs to improve, d/grade to u/perf March 25, 2014 07:13 AM ET
ReplyDeleteWe lower our EPS, PO, and rating to reflect a less bullish wearables growth forecast. At our TTB 2014 conference, we could not find evidence to support our bull-case scenario for LCoS to ramp in 2H14. We assume LCoS will be a niche market in 2H14 but with broader consumer adoption in 2015 (driven by Google).
Download PDF Report (606kb) »
Re-entered TZA at $15.5
ReplyDeleteDavid Tepper's new mansion:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/david-teppers-hamptons-mansion-photos-2014-3
Sold TZA at $15.55. I think I'm done with the short side for the time being. Risk too high that we rip higher soon.
ReplyDeletehttp://ryandetrick.tumblr.com/post/80673993140/why-you-should-still-avoid-emerging-markets
ReplyDeleteBack in AAPL for a trade. $542.5. Those are the hot stocks right now. IBM, CSCO, HPQ, MSFT.
ReplyDeleteThe Dow is clearly outperforming of late. These are the big winners going forward:
ReplyDeletehttp://money.cnn.com/data/dow30/
I'm thinking GE is a good one right here.
VE looks like it might be breaking out. We chickened out at $12....
Deleteyikes!
DeleteELON - Is this one about to run like a scalded cat?
ReplyDeleteSold AAPL at $545.5. I actually went all in on it for a trade and didn't want to hold overnight. Looks fine but I really don't have a ton of conviction with anything right now and prefer cash until I see a clearer trend emerge.
ReplyDeleteThe move in PLUG today tells me that animal spirits are coming back, if only for a short while, before another attempt at moving lower. Perhaps RUT goes to 1,200 again and sets up yet another trade in that beast TZA.
ReplyDeleteMarket feels incredibly flaky to me, might be good for some upside. RTH even closed above $59.60, didn't think that would happen.....
DeleteFLWS - Popped going into the close, not sure if there's any meaning.
ReplyDeleteLook at the performance of some recent IPOs since opening day highs:
ReplyDeleteCSLT
COUP
PBPB
DRNA
Horrible. most of these are Stephen Stewart picks. Lots of carnage out there with people playing momentum stocks.
Reminds me of FB's chart. Kinda of what I'd expect just before they rocket on free hydrogen radicals and a promise of profits sometime in the afterlife.
DeleteI am not sure about ELON, CP -- it has formed a nice clean flag since the beginning of the year, and it is still not clear which way that flags breaks.
ReplyDeleteHowever, the 6-month SCON chart looks great, and right now we are close to the bottom of the channel. So get your SCONes while they are cheap! I just placed a buy stop limit at $3.30/$3.33 to get a little more of it in case it keeps moving up from here -- if it does, then we can be pretty sure that the pullback is over.
David, I'm really not much of a fan of superconductor applications b/c of the requirement to maintain cryogenic operating temperatures. Looks dangerous to me.
DeleteBDI is 1602, I don't see a problem with that.
ReplyDeleteAnd, this: "European bourses, which shot up largely in response to some remarks from Bundesbank head, Jens Weidmann, who suggested it was not out of the realm of possibility for the ECB to implement a QE-type program to fight deflation. ECB President Draghi spoke later in the day and said the ECB is not currently seeing any evidence of deflation."
ReplyDeleteSo maybe the Gestapo is thinking about softening their stance b/c they don't have to?
Gold $1318 is the resistance level I recall from a couple months ago.
ReplyDeleteBulls need SPX to move up through 1872 and hold it.
ReplyDeleteThis is totally just a hunch but my thinking is a lot of traders are sitting in cash waiting for confirmation of a trend. If we get a drop below prior lows we will most likely get an attempt to follow through to the downside which will be reversed hard. If we get a break above we will most likely ramp higher 2 to 5% then fail and potentially get a move all the way down to 1,730ish (prior lows). I think it's going to be volatile for the next couple of months even if we make higher highs.
ReplyDeleteI'm voting for a gap up tomorrow that gets faded.
DeleteGEVO initial earnings response - "Ain't that pretty at all So I'm going to hurl myself against the wall
ReplyDelete'Cause I'd rather feel bad than not feel anything at all"
Wonder if GEVO can swing a sweet deal like PEIX did?
DeleteARO - Woof, woof alert.
ReplyDeleteSo I'm caught short in the midst of an EM rally. ---- it. I'll find a way to play it.
ReplyDeleteDid you short EMs or are you just out? I thought you were pretty positive on them.
DeleteYeah, this guy is definitely a trader.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=9207
WM - Why can't this company become an energy company, doesn't seem so far fetched.
ReplyDeleteNice trading today boyz. I hope to be 'back' soon.
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.wsj.com/privateequity/2014/03/25/bain-deal-underscores-renewed-investor-interest-in-brazil/
ReplyDeleteBrazil on a nice run and this this positive article. Maybe it is the right time for BSBR and friends.
Also, I am still long half of NM and the chart still looks good in my limited knowledge. Maybe getting ready for next leg upwards, solicly above lows from earlier this year, had to work off the strong run from late 2013.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2014/03/the-shift-to-value-continues.html
ReplyDeleteGood chart which very likely explains why TOF and I see the market differently here:
And this from a hedge fund manager on twitter:
Delete"Hearing there is some pain in hedge fund land during this rotation from high beta to low beta"
New postage stamp.
ReplyDelete