Almost ready for you guys to come over and break it in! So glad it's ready for the Warriors and Sharks playoff games this year..oh yeah..maybe next year :(
yeah man. i'm on the verge of throwing in the towel and we're almost at all time highs. the hard part is i'm not even playing the high valuation / momo / tech stocks.
Here's a post I meant to print around 1230 pm today:
(a) Closing all positions in miners. SLW @ 21.80 for a -2.6% loss. RYPMX end of day for likely a -2% loss. Miners are trading contrary to expectations (against the backdrop of technical support + declining dollar). In general, when assets perform badly despite a supportive environment, it can turn 'ugly' in a hurry. My first priority is to minimize losses when my original 'take' proves incorrect.
(b) Losses more or less offset by gains the past two days in JCP, TWTR, and HDGE.
2nd, I think we are coming up to a good time for miners - it would make sense that as the economy improves and inflation stirs, metals should do well. Don't have a good idea when, but it feels to me that the miners this year are like energy stocks last year - fundamentals improving in the background, but no-one paying attention, now this year, energy is one of the best sectors.
I would stay away from the gold and silver miners. I think they still haven't come down enough from the giant runup.
I would be looking at base metal miners. My favourite, that I am still trying to buy in Lundin (LUNMF or LUN.TO). They have a nice blend of metals - mainly Copper Zinc and Nickel, smart management, reasonable valuation. Some political risk from their Tenke mine in DRC (24% ownership) that Freeport is running, but mostly politically safe jurisdictions. I don't think there is a rush to buy, so have been waiting for a pullback, but want to get before the next mining cycle takes off.
Other miners which I would look at First Quantum, Taseko, Copper Mountain and Sherritt (which I own).
POT has been flat for about 6 years now and could also be a good one. It's not cheap, but has good leverage to potash pricing if that starts up again with an improving economy.
I am staying away from Teck because of their coal exposure as I don't really have a good idea what is happening with that market. Same with the iron ore miners as that is another commodity I am not sure about.
CCJ also has pulled back, but I am thinking now that the growth cycle for uranium has been pushed back, so wouldn't buy.
I also still own Alcoa and it has been on a tear. But they know how to make money in the aluminum business and are constantly repositioning themselves, so I could see this back in the $30's in a few years.
I also have a small position in IVN.TO as a flier on that their allstar CEO can turn one of their 3 really good hunks of ground into a world class mine.
I guess the easy thing to do is buy BHP as they have broad exposure to pretty much everything, but it's such a large cap that it will be hard to move upwards.
Base metals are more economically sensitive than precious metals and more tied to GDP growth. If the global economy continues to slowly get better, this bodes well for the base metals. The whole steel supply chain (iron ore,coal) is questionable and may be oversupplied, especially if demand is weak.
any thoughts on BBBY? Do you see websites like yours hurting them? Cheapest its been in years and still very profitable, but stock down on a couple of weak quarters,so may be good to buy for a bounce back. The knocks against them are that online is stealing overall share and weaker competition may try to compete on price, but assuming housing continues to come back, which I think it does, I think BBBY gets back on track and the stock gets revalued back to traditional metrics, say +35% from here. No yield, but have reduced the share count pretty consistently.
Online will definitely steal share from them and I've thought this for a while. I was wondering when it would finally hurt them. I honestly don't know enough about them but I would say hold off on buying them because of the online exposure. Also what % of sales come from Europe? I think that area of the world should do well
Say what, or huh? "Municipals Weekly: Revisiting issuance 8 minutes ago
Moving to lower coupons, lower credits & longer maturities should be the theme for investors as excess liquidity takes hold. We maintain a $330bn issuance target for the year, and discuss the factors supporting our optimism versus street estimates. On the radar: Updates on the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the City of Detroit, and Moody's Annual Default Study.
BBBY is mainly a US company with stores in Canada and Mexico too, but I'm pretty sure that is it for foreign exposure.
I wonder if all retail should just be avoided as it will be in a longterm competitive threat form online. But I guess that's not accurate as companies like the GAP (GPS) are doing well of integrating online and stores and WMT had more online growth than AMZN last quarter, so I think you want a retailer that has a good online strategy that takes advantage of having stores as well as web.
BB - i think its important in furniture to have an offline presence. It's a strategy I'm considering myself. I think an offline / online strategy will work
My thinking is a lot of the people that got blown out of the momentum names tried dip buying over and over but bailed. They changed strategy and moved on to what is working at just the wrong time. So they are hiding in stocks like JNJ and PG which trade at absurd valuations all because they've become addicted to the stock buying game as a result of going on a huge binge in 2013. However, they're scared and skittish. At the first whiff of danger they will bail and put pressure on big caps. Eventually the people watching the nonsense from afar in the momentum names that were a little worried will become more and more worried when the momentum people that are now in the big caps are bailing and putting pressure on their own stocks. They will eventually sell too. This will add to the selling pressure. the previously loved momentum names will be left for dead and we might have a chance of picking up some of them for very cheap. LNKD at $120 and YELP at $45? Both translate to reasonable multiples on revenues.
of course i've been so far off the past few weeks that i will probably be wrong.
I like that strategy, I think you nailed it. Just have to wait out the real bottom which could take some time for negative sentiment to peak one approach involves legging in.
A lot of the small energy stocks have been getting hit hard this week since the nat gas supply report came out higher than expected. Nat gas down 6% and a lot of these stocks down more than 10%. There were a lot of profits in these, so could just be an excuse for profit taking, but another area of the market getting hit.
Yeah was a violent reversal - seems to be the way of the market these days. But a lot of the energy companies were up 30% or more YTD. Even large cap CNQ was up over 25% at the highs.
I'd be careful about getting too bearish. When I look at my stocks, 33 of 43 were up YTD as of 2 days ago (I have to do a spreadsheet to get uptodate figures from TD, so that was the last time). Being in Canadian stocks has helped as the TSX is up around 8% YTD and the commodity stocks have done well too. But I think a lot of it it is just a lot of the US got overvalued last year (it is one on the most expensive markets in the world), and now we are going through a rebalancing.
bespoke -> More than 1,500 companies have now reported earnings since the current reporting period began in early April. The average one-day price change for the stocks that have reported earnings is still negative at -0.29%, so in general, stocks have traded lower in reaction to their reports this season.
Next weekend is a three day weekend for memorial day, right? That's a bullish week b/c shorts aren't going to want to stay long over the weekend in case of good news.
I got finally used up all my wiper blade refills I'd bought back in the late 90's and went to the autoparts store looking for more, found out as suspected now they only sell the complete blade and not the refill, soooooooooo......
Okay so I'm completely done loading up on wiper blade refills for the cars, I put a lot of effort into this to get it right. Thus this month I've literally collected a lifetime supply of these things and have even gone to the extent of a tour through the junkyard specifically to look at (and collect a few) factory OEM wiper blades! There's a lot of junk out there that doesn't fit exactly like the OEM stuff does.
Anyway, in the spirit of recycling and restoring a car to factory correct equipment as opposed to those ill-fitting hideous monstrosities offered nowadays on autoparts store isles, I found a good source for the rubber inserts used in wiper blades in case you guys are interested.
There are basically two widths used, 6mm and 8mm, and this guy has both in different lengths but if your wipers aren't the factory ones (that fit your car way better than universal aftermarket junk) then all bets are off, and these aren't likely to work in those $150 high-dollar dodads found on high end luxury vehicles so you're on your own there. Otherwise measure the width and length, add a 1/2 inch and order one of greater length then cut off the excess rubber for a great fit and look, like the things actually belong there and didn't come off a caterpillar tractor:
TSLA - Talk about recency bias, I was wondering if this one would ever have a green day. Astute sellers/traders should have already taken advantage of blind over enthusiasm by abandoning ship long ago before the decline and techies have an undying love for these kind of stocks in the belief the EV is going to save the world, as if GM hadn't already considered viability. Of course the HUGE tax incentive is one heck of a tailwind and our government is famous for claiming historical victories occasionally. Speaking of GM's capacity for wisdom, who actually decided the catalytic converter was a must-have, if it weren't for our government would airborn/background lead levels have already killed us by now?
So crappy little Italian cars is our play??
ReplyDeleteSD- Lol.
and you know I'm not above it at all!!
DeleteSD?
DeleteNice work on the basement!
SD- I just though it was funny. pretty good earnings and it still got rejected.
DeleteNice, steady earnings out of NWLI again today. 58% of BV and single digit P/E.
ReplyDeleteNot sure when, but some day will get recognized by the market.
Man, there have been a feaking ton of total wipe outs.
ReplyDeleteone of the tougher markets i've seen in a while. seems like around this time every year every stock i buy is immediately down.
DeleteSure makes me cautious as hell.
Deleteyeah man. i'm on the verge of throwing in the towel and we're almost at all time highs. the hard part is i'm not even playing the high valuation / momo / tech stocks.
DeleteOne stock I've been looking into is PKX. I mentioned it a month or so ago. Looks really cheap to me.
DeleteI'm thinking maybe rates are about to head higher, cutting off the flow of cheap money for speculation?
DeleteHere's a post I meant to print around 1230 pm today:
ReplyDelete(a) Closing all positions in miners. SLW @ 21.80 for a -2.6% loss. RYPMX end of day for likely a -2% loss. Miners are trading contrary to expectations (against the backdrop of technical support + declining dollar). In general, when assets perform badly despite a supportive environment, it can turn 'ugly' in a hurry. My first priority is to minimize losses when my original 'take' proves incorrect.
(b) Losses more or less offset by gains the past two days in JCP, TWTR, and HDGE.
(c) US markets not acting well, IMO.
And after hours I picked another tranche of JCP @ 8.62.
DeleteIf I had a basement like that, I would rent it out!
ReplyDeleteIt would be full with all my junk, er, I meant "treasures".
Delete2nd, I think we are coming up to a good time for miners - it would make sense that as the economy improves and inflation stirs, metals should do well. Don't have a good idea when, but it feels to me that the miners this year are like energy stocks last year - fundamentals improving in the background, but no-one paying attention, now this year, energy is one of the best sectors.
ReplyDeleteWhich miners? SLW etc? I just don't like Gold.
DeleteDVY - Have Aunt Ethel and Uncle Charlie placed their entire life savings into DVY?
ReplyDeleteInsider buying at FIATY yesterday:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fiatspa.com/en-US/media_center/FiatDocuments/2014/Maggio/The_Chairman_and_the_Chief_Executive_Officer_of_Fiat_Purchase_Fiat_Shares.pdf
TOF,
ReplyDeleteI would stay away from the gold and silver miners. I think they still haven't come down enough from the giant runup.
I would be looking at base metal miners. My favourite, that I am still trying to buy in Lundin (LUNMF or LUN.TO). They have a nice blend of metals - mainly Copper Zinc and Nickel, smart management, reasonable valuation. Some political risk from their Tenke mine in DRC (24% ownership) that Freeport is running, but mostly politically safe jurisdictions. I don't think there is a rush to buy, so have been waiting for a pullback, but want to get before the next mining cycle takes off.
Other miners which I would look at First Quantum, Taseko, Copper Mountain and Sherritt (which I own).
POT has been flat for about 6 years now and could also be a good one. It's not cheap, but has good leverage to potash pricing if that starts up again with an improving economy.
I am staying away from Teck because of their coal exposure as I don't really have a good idea what is happening with that market. Same with the iron ore miners as that is another commodity I am not sure about.
CCJ also has pulled back, but I am thinking now that the growth cycle for uranium has been pushed back, so wouldn't buy.
I also still own Alcoa and it has been on a tear. But they know how to make money in the aluminum business and are constantly repositioning themselves, so I could see this back in the $30's in a few years.
I also have a small position in IVN.TO as a flier on that their allstar CEO can turn one of their 3 really good hunks of ground into a world class mine.
I guess the easy thing to do is buy BHP as they have broad exposure to pretty much everything, but it's such a large cap that it will be hard to move upwards.
Gold is stronger than silver, but unless we have inflation soon they seem headed lower. I think we could see $16 or lower to $13 briefly, silver.
DeleteDF - ?
ReplyDeleteTCK - ? If there's a Chinese crash maybe lower? I hear China has the world's largest banks.
ReplyDeleteKB - This one's ready to do something, and based on volume this month at the low, I'd say someone's betting on a break to the upside.
ReplyDeleteBase metals are more economically sensitive than precious metals and more tied to GDP growth. If the global economy continues to slowly get better, this bodes well for the base metals. The whole steel supply chain (iron ore,coal) is questionable and may be oversupplied, especially if demand is weak.
ReplyDeleteTOF,
ReplyDeleteany thoughts on BBBY? Do you see websites like yours hurting them? Cheapest its been in years and still very profitable, but stock down on a couple of weak quarters,so may be good to buy for a bounce back. The knocks against them are that online is stealing overall share and weaker competition may try to compete on price, but assuming housing continues to come back, which I think it does, I think BBBY gets back on track and the stock gets revalued back to traditional metrics, say +35% from here. No yield, but have reduced the share count pretty consistently.
Online will definitely steal share from them and I've thought this for a while. I was wondering when it would finally hurt them. I honestly don't know enough about them but I would say hold off on buying them because of the online exposure. Also what % of sales come from Europe? I think that area of the world should do well
DeleteJONE - Doing well.
ReplyDeleteJCP off @ 8.83...
ReplyDeleteNWLI - Crap! Someone noticed...
ReplyDeleteTCK is met coal, right? So I think met coal is now being burned as power fuel but there's a shift away from overproduction of coal in general?
ReplyDeleteSay what, or huh?
ReplyDelete"Municipals Weekly: Revisiting issuance
8 minutes ago
Moving to lower coupons, lower credits & longer maturities should be the theme for investors as excess liquidity takes hold. We maintain a $330bn issuance target for the year, and discuss the factors supporting our optimism versus street estimates. On the radar: Updates on the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the City of Detroit, and Moody's Annual Default Study.
PAAS - Silver miner beat
TWTR> opened 32.25, off 32.67...
ReplyDeleteNWLI - Filled, $234.22 - Double my usual size.
ReplyDeleteI like the pullback, feels like a knockout move.
DeleteBBBY is mainly a US company with stores in Canada and Mexico too, but I'm pretty sure that is it for foreign exposure.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if all retail should just be avoided as it will be in a longterm competitive threat form online. But I guess that's not accurate as companies like the GAP (GPS) are doing well of integrating online and stores and WMT had more online growth than AMZN last quarter, so I think you want a retailer that has a good online strategy that takes advantage of having stores as well as web.
All brick type stores scare me.
DeleteWill online get smacked with tax? I hear their margins are outsized in comparison to Alibaba, which does more business but margins are smaller.
DeleteBB - i think its important in furniture to have an offline presence. It's a strategy I'm considering myself. I think an offline / online strategy will work
DeleteJONE - Okay, I shoulda' bought this one too, another great pick!
ReplyDeleteI really wanted an oil/energy play, too.....
DeleteSmart guys running JONE and in a good area - quarter was good.
DeleteI cleared out most of my stocks today, including FIAT. If YELP gets to $47 I will buy a little.
ReplyDeleteMy thinking is a lot of the people that got blown out of the momentum names tried dip buying over and over but bailed. They changed strategy and moved on to what is working at just the wrong time. So they are hiding in stocks like JNJ and PG which trade at absurd valuations all because they've become addicted to the stock buying game as a result of going on a huge binge in 2013. However, they're scared and skittish. At the first whiff of danger they will bail and put pressure on big caps. Eventually the people watching the nonsense from afar in the momentum names that were a little worried will become more and more worried when the momentum people that are now in the big caps are bailing and putting pressure on their own stocks. They will eventually sell too. This will add to the selling pressure. the previously loved momentum names will be left for dead and we might have a chance of picking up some of them for very cheap. LNKD at $120 and YELP at $45? Both translate to reasonable multiples on revenues.
ReplyDeleteof course i've been so far off the past few weeks that i will probably be wrong.
I like that strategy, I think you nailed it. Just have to wait out the real bottom which could take some time for negative sentiment to peak one approach involves legging in.
DeleteFLWS - This one might pull back for you, before it pulls an NLS style rip higher?
DeleteI can't believe none of us stayed in NLS. We had it at $2.50. Yikes!
DeleteCIE - I have a $14.xxish target on this one, not sre if it can make a double bottom higher low or if it just takes off.
ReplyDeleteSVM - This one usually doesn't remain under $2 for very long.
ReplyDeleteA lot of the small energy stocks have been getting hit hard this week since the nat gas supply report came out higher than expected. Nat gas down 6% and a lot of these stocks down more than 10%. There were a lot of profits in these, so could just be an excuse for profit taking, but another area of the market getting hit.
ReplyDeleteDon't I know! I got crushed on XCO. It literally went straight down 10% without a bounce in about 36 hours.
DeleteYeah was a violent reversal - seems to be the way of the market these days. But a lot of the energy companies were up 30% or more YTD. Even large cap CNQ was up over 25% at the highs.
DeleteThanks for posting that, I've been meaning to look into why these boys are getting whacked.
DeleteAll I know lately is if your stock is up you sure as hell better be selling.
ReplyDeleteI'd be careful about getting too bearish. When I look at my stocks, 33 of 43 were up YTD as of 2 days ago (I have to do a spreadsheet to get uptodate figures from TD, so that was the last time). Being in Canadian stocks has helped as the TSX is up around 8% YTD and the commodity stocks have done well too. But I think a lot of it it is just a lot of the US got overvalued last year (it is one on the most expensive markets in the world), and now we are going through a rebalancing.
DeleteI agree to a certain extent. I'm just taking a break and holding on to my chitty little Chinese dating site while I clear the mind.
DeleteAnother interesting fact about this quarter's earnings and why they seem so rough:
ReplyDeleteEarnings beat - stock up 0.18%
Earnings Miss - stock down 5.33%
what's the avg?
Deletebespoke -> More than 1,500 companies have now reported earnings since the current reporting period began in early April. The average one-day price change for the stocks that have reported earnings is still negative at -0.29%, so in general, stocks have traded lower in reaction to their reports this season.
DeleteNLS is singularly responsible for tilting the entire average to the upside by 0.18%
DeleteGTS having a good day again - still watching.
ReplyDeleteJONE - I see what they're doing, it's too obvious.
ReplyDeleteNext weekend is a three day weekend for memorial day, right? That's a bullish week b/c shorts aren't going to want to stay long over the weekend in case of good news.
ReplyDeleteI got finally used up all my wiper blade refills I'd bought back in the late 90's and went to the autoparts store looking for more, found out as suspected now they only sell the complete blade and not the refill, soooooooooo......
ReplyDeleteOkay so I'm completely done loading up on wiper blade refills for the cars, I put a lot of effort into this to get it right. Thus this month I've literally collected a lifetime supply of these things and have even gone to the extent of a tour through the junkyard specifically to look at (and collect a few) factory OEM wiper blades! There's a lot of junk out there that doesn't fit exactly like the OEM stuff does.
Anyway, in the spirit of recycling and restoring a car to factory correct equipment as opposed to those ill-fitting hideous monstrosities offered nowadays on autoparts store isles, I found a good source for the rubber inserts used in wiper blades in case you guys are interested.
There are basically two widths used, 6mm and 8mm, and this guy has both in different lengths but if your wipers aren't the factory ones (that fit your car way better than universal aftermarket junk) then all bets are off, and these aren't likely to work in those $150 high-dollar dodads found on high end luxury vehicles so you're on your own there. Otherwise measure the width and length, add a 1/2 inch and order one of greater length then cut off the excess rubber for a great fit and look, like the things actually belong there and didn't come off a caterpillar tractor:
http://www.ebay.com/itm/261194795780?ssPageName=STRK:MEWNX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1497.l2649
TSLA - Talk about recency bias, I was wondering if this one would ever have a green day. Astute sellers/traders should have already taken advantage of blind over enthusiasm by abandoning ship long ago before the decline and techies have an undying love for these kind of stocks in the belief the EV is going to save the world, as if GM hadn't already considered viability. Of course the HUGE tax incentive is one heck of a tailwind and our government is famous for claiming historical victories occasionally. Speaking of GM's capacity for wisdom, who actually decided the catalytic converter was a must-have, if it weren't for our government would airborn/background lead levels have already killed us by now?
ReplyDeleteAAPL - Dump this one and skate to where the puck will be, buy MCZ and maybe LQMT, LOL.
ReplyDeleteEM employment data is lagging?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.antiguaobserver.com/unemployment-figures-three-years-old-alp-leader/
Okay, what's say we break into the marketing glamor ville spotlight by suggesting to Blackberry they should call their next smartphone an eye-phone?
ReplyDeleteThat's funny!
DeleteCREE - $10 cash
ReplyDeletehttp://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/nysehighsrussellbelow200mamay7.jpg
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete