4/
I awaken most Saturdays restless. The feeling dissipates only with the construction of a market outlook. The outlook unfolds only during the composition process.
The first four months of 2014 have left scores of 'sectors' staggering.
(a) US small caps (IWM) are back in their boxes: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=iwm
(b) Momentum plays (MTUM) have gone to bed: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MTUM+Interactive#symbol=MTUM;range=1d
(c) Social Media (SOCL) dressed in red: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=socl
But what'sUP?
(a) Hey, Jo! +80%. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=jo
(b) Energy (XLE) +7.4%. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=xle
(c) Basic Materials (XLB). +4%: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=xlb
(d) Commodities (DBC). +4%. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=dbc
(e) Gasoline (UGA). +3.5%. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=uga
Alright, so with the exception of coffee, the markets are only whispering inflation. Inflation makes sense at this stage of the market cycle. We're 5 years into a bull. Employment, while far from healthy, is improving. Workers are less afraid of losing their jobs, and more inclined to ask for (and receive) higher wages. Landlords are in the catbird seat, and rents are rocketing. Commodity producers are quietly raising prices for food and energy (the CPI leaves out food and energy, right?) without the usual headline complaints.
What's all this mean to investors? In my opinion, the following sectors will benefit from incipient inflation:
(a) Emerging Markets (EEM). That's right. The poster boy for abused sectors in 2013/Q1 2014. Is it possible for Emerging Markets to rally in the face of declining US indexes? I'm not sure, but no one blinked an eye last year when US small caps rallied +40% while BRICs sank.
(b) XLE/XLB/DBC/UGA.
(c) Miners! GDX appears poised for a killer move. Of course, killer moves typically launch only after a plunge down, ensuring that few investors will be on board.
(d) HDGE. I wouldn't place more than the usual 'pass line' bet on HDGE, as short plays are difficult on the psyche. A red chip (backed with odds if/when the US markets begin trending down in earnest) may pay off well over the next few months.
(e) Cash. Often overlooked, and vastly underrated. One heckuva broom, however, for sweeping up the broken pieces of yesterday's life (IWM/MTUM/SOCL will likely return with a vengeance).
2nd, perhaps you are the market wizard.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/GMO_QtlyLetter_1Q14_FullVersion.pdf
pages 1-11, you may like
If you are a value player or interested in that mind set, part two is very good.
Deletet3d- Grantham's letter was a very good read. Thanks for posting. My takeaways:
Delete(a) Statistical support for increased volatility through this fall, at which time may lie a tremendous buying opp.
(b) Global assets ex-US may be less likely to exhibit correlation with US indexes during the next US correction.
(c) We may all be blogging about the markets well into our seventies and eighties.
2nd, glad you enjoyed it. You do an excellent job on this site's upkeep, contributions and of course music, Mahalo!
DeleteI vote for a, b, and "C" in no particular order.
Nice write up! Here is some back-up.
Delete"MY LEAST FAVORITE ARROW
MAY 5, 2014 BY DAVE LANDRY
sidewaysarrowRANDOM THOUGHTS
On Friday, the Ps neared the top of their range but retreated to close in the minus column. It’s possible that some players got tricked trying to get into a breakout early. I wouldn’t read too much into one day’s action though, especially on a flat day.
The Quack and Rusty were strong in early trading but both reversed to end flat on the day.
Not much has changed. Without boring you too much (read the recent columns if you’re having trouble sleeping), for the most part, defensive issues have been holding up the Ps. And, the question remains, what’s going to happen when, not if, these issues correct.
I suppose the only thing that has changed is that the market is getting more and more choppy.
The Ps remain relatively unchanged for 2 months. Although the Quack remains in a downtrend, on a net net basis it hasn’t changed much in nearly a month. Ditto for the Rusty.
The choppy action is forcing me to draw my least favorite arrow, the sideways arrow.
As my friend Peter Mauthe says, “don’t invent trades.” With the arrows beginning to turn sideways, now is not the time to invent trades.
One dilemma that I’m facing is do I go after the sleepy defensive issues that I usually ignore because they are lower in volatility? Should I play the only game in town?
Just because something is lower in volatility doesn’t mean that something bad can’t still happen. In fact, I’d rather the devil I know—trade more volatile issues.
Also, since it is the only game in town, what’s going to happen when the game ends?
It’s not an ideal environment for a guy who likes to trade somewhat volatile momentum stocks.
It’s important to recognize when the wind isn’t at your back.
So what do we do? With not much changing, the plan remains the same: Continue to watch the Defensive issues for possible setups. Ideally, I’d like to see a correction overall here first but some individual issues are beginning to set up (e.g. in the Energies). On the short side, I’m still seeing a few setups but the lack of follow through recently is concerning. I think now is the time to avoid being aggressive—one way or the other. By being more and more selective during these choppy times we could end up flat and waiting. Obviously, you’re not going to get rich if you’re not playing but sometimes the return of capital is more important the return on capital. I guess all of the above is a long winded way of saying that we could end up sitting on our hands.
Futures are selling off hard pre-market."
My only problem with JO is it is so well publicized. The Brazilian problem has been known since January. Central American coffees have good yields which may help some. I get some coffees direct from the farmer and some of the bigger centrals are quite happy. Columbia and g\Guatemala will be key as will Costa Rica to a lesser degree. Brazil however is the largest producer in the world, so it's hard to avoid that impact. It isn't really inflation per se, but supply/demand, at least for coffee. But when you look at the other commodities it seems to be inflation. My trip to Costco yesterday was whispering inflation to me....well maybe it was more than whispering.
DeleteWow. Great write up bro. I will read it again on my computer.
ReplyDeleteHow's Patricia doing, Mark?
ReplyDeleteDitto, Mark?
DeleteJust got back from the City. Still having drainage problems. She's as comfortable as possible for being stuck in a hospital. If it doesn't stop by Thur. she's scheduled for more surgery, which of course would suck.
DeleteKeeping my fingers crossed and putting out the positive energy for you and Patricia Mark.
DeleteAnyone ever look at Triple-S Management (GTS)?
ReplyDeleteThey run Blue Cross/Blue Shield in Puerto Rico. Stock down really cheap due to Puerto Rico economy being weak, some abnormally high claims costs in Q4 and the government changing some of the rules.
But I think this is all in the stock now and the Puerto Rico government has balanced their budget, the economy seems to be turning upwards and the reality is people need and will pay for their health care before a lot of other things.
I can give some more numbers on the valuation and expected returns if anyone is interested, but let me know if anyone has looked at this. Just got upgraded by Citi last week for what that's worth and AM Best seems positive on them.
That one does look interesting, I like charts like that. and it does seem too bearish.
Deletehttp://thestockmarketbasics.com/freedom-35-top-long-stock-pick-wprt-may-5-2014/
ReplyDeleteIs this the same guy?
Westport +24% as Q1 results move closer to profit
DeleteWestport Innovations (WPRT +24.2%) is soaring after Q1 earnings beat expectations and showed signs of moving towards making a profit.Q1 gross margin rose to 12.3% from 8.1% due primarily to sales of higher margin product such as the Westport WiNG System and service revenue.Issued in-line guidance for FY 2014, seeing revenues C$175M-C$185M vs. C$183.6M analyst consensus estimate.
Interesting article on India, REDF?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesgruber/2014/05/04/india-will-soon-outpace-china/
REDF, vol seems an issue
Deletelooked at all etf's, all had good runs so far
REDF - Kinda interesting, bet it doesn't remain under the 50SMA for long?
Delete20 shares traded in 1st 1/2 hour, I bet we could push this one up over the resistance.
DeleteNLS - How about this one, it has pulled back a bit. Maybe we get lucky and the $6.5x Aug gap from last year closes?
ReplyDeleteChina - Mfg activity missed estimates, Ukraine rages on.
ReplyDeleteNLS - Someone's betting on a decent earnings report in AH?
ReplyDeleteSeems pretty strong, huh?
DeletePLUG - So what happened, someone pulled the power PLUG?
ReplyDeleteTREX - Does plastic decking sell well in winter?
ReplyDeleteGap up from $54?
DeleteOPEN - Buy, BACML
ReplyDeleteAUMN - Trading at $0.663?
ReplyDeleteCould we please just move the SPX to 2225 so I can finally short it? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteGTS - I have a stink bid on this one @ $15.38, seems like our jubilance will vaporize on the most likely TOTALLY MISLEADING news from China being paraded..
ReplyDeleteDown we go I say, b/c the market can't break out for no good reason thus leaving only one direction and of course sideways is an unacceptable option.
CYD - Would we buy this one if it retested $18? Seems like a possibility, perhaps a brief visit?
ReplyDeleteGRMN - Glad I wasn't riding this one up from the $30's, baby boomers still think it's the king of GPS.
ReplyDeleteALDW - Still don't like this one?
ReplyDeleteSingle women prefer dog ownership as an alternative to having children. Maybe PSMT is overpriced?
ReplyDeleteBaltimore Md. casino is opening the doors this summer?
TXT - I think these guys are selling tons of the V-22 Osprey.
ReplyDeleteBAC - This one looks like a bull flag formation to me.
ReplyDeleteBaltic Dry Index (BDI) +24 1017
ReplyDeleteFLWS - Today's price to beat is $5.60, can she do it?
ReplyDeleteTC - Surviving the 50 SMA retest so far.
ReplyDeleteMERS - Middle East Respiratory Syndrome. Sounds almost like silicosis, doesn't it?
ReplyDeletePG - Speaking of the middle east and farout places, wonder how much this company does in India?
RTH - Can we argue if the economy is in the crapper then why can't this one close that Feb gap up? Surely it should at least considering retail outlets have lost shoppers flashing cash around in public while IPS/FDX have been bust beavers delivering all that crap bought off the internet?
ReplyDeleteARO - Heck, even this one has stopped crashing for the time being, all they should have to do is let go of the dream of a store on every street corner and compromise a little?
Where have all the bears gone, come on guys and grow a pair, what about the January effect and the BS 5 year rally????
ReplyDeleteMore of the same old hot air I've seen since 666, nothing has changed except for the chapter.
DeleteGreen portfolio, imagine that, and it happened greater than the customary 5min prior to close.
DeleteJCP - Look at that short float, aside from getting rid of that uppity pretty boy it's the best thing that's happened to this company in decades.
ReplyDeleteI like skimpy lingerie too! :)
Delete"04-May-14 06:36AM Partnership helped small lingerie business grow"
ALSK - PE is less than 1, eh?
ReplyDeleteOpened SLW @ 22.41.
ReplyDeleteOpened RSX @ 22.33.
Opened VALE @ 13.31.
All small positions.
China lifts historic ban on Virginia poultry.
ReplyDeleteTSN - And, this one gets whacked hard on earnings despite this news....... Hmm.
DeleteCan it reach $34, the gap up coincides with the 200SMA, interesting....
DeleteLargest individual sector of this state's economy, $20M increased sales anticipated. Yes, Tyson Foods is here.
DeleteToo big to jail = a fine shareholders will gladly pay. Based on well established protocol, that's the reality of the subject.
ReplyDeleteKWK - Earnings in la manyana.
ReplyDeleteOpened a small position in ATHN @ 111.64 after hours on the short call by Einhorn:
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/05/05/ira-sohn-investment-conference-live-blog/
Cramer out after hours talking bullishly about GM. I agree with him and BB. I almost bought shares today.
ReplyDeleteCramer also said to buy insurer ORI - still about 25% undervalued compared to peers and a very sustainable 4.4% dividend and a 25 year history of increasing dividends.
DeleteNot as cheap as it was, but pretty good if you want an income with growth type stock.
GTS earnings:
ReplyDeleteTriple-S Management beats by $0.11, misses on revenue
Triple-S Management (GTS): Q1 EPS of $0.25 beats by $0.11.Revenue of $584.5M (-0.9% Y/Y) misses by $1.32M.
Looking at Russian Oil Company Lukoil (LUKOY).
ReplyDeleteThey really seem like they are trying to be global company who happens to be based in Russia rather than a Russian company (look at their board composition). Probably won't buy it, but it sure is tempting on a valuation and sentiment basis, especially is we got a spike down.
ATHN off pre-market @ 112.78.
ReplyDeleteTWTR
ReplyDeleteKWK - Oops........
ReplyDeleteNLS - Yea!
ReplyDeleteTWTR - Deal with AMZN, you can buy through TWTR
TREX - Island reversal?
ReplyDeleteGTS - Positive response!
ReplyDeleteGuess we should have bought yesterday. We'll see what happens from here.
DeleteI have a bid for 1/2 position @ $16.08 in case the gap closes and in the spirit of the gap only being an obligation I'll add the 2nd 1/2 on further weakness.
DeleteTwtr is garbage. I really think it's a sub $10 within a year.
ReplyDeleteI was looking at gets yesterday. Unfortunately it's not really in my comfort zone but I like that they're the exclusive provider of blue cross blue shield services in PR the BVIs and the USVIs.
Hey are any of you guys considering XCO? That earnings report had some pretty positive comments about the 2nd half
I do like energy in general, but haven't looked at XCO. I generally stick to Canadian energy companies for the favourable dividend tax treatment. I think energy does well for the next year or two as the economy improves and inflation starts to tick up a bit (or at least deflation becomes less of a worry).
DeleteWe have a thumbs up on CIE and CXO from a few months ago, Mark has been watching XCO and doesn't seem too hip on it.
DeleteCIE - I have a stink bid on this one in the $14's
DeleteFAST - Coming back to us?
ReplyDeleteSome good news. Brought Patricia home last night. She still has a drain but hoping we can avoid another surgery. The output is still pretty high so we'll see.
ReplyDeleteIf the output is high, it's coming out. Infection, I guess.
DeleteIt's not infected...at least that's not what they are saying. There's a duct there that comes from the intestines that delivers fact cells etc. that is leaking. There's also some blood still coming out. Total output is about 300 ml/day now. It was about 900.
DeleteENPH - Back to $7.20, do we buy a negative earnings response?
ReplyDeleteAmerica the stormy........
I'm praying we get one. Although I think they held back revenue from the last Q.
DeleteRSX off @ 22.77 (+2%).
ReplyDeleteURG - This should be support
ReplyDeleteTSN - Decelerating
ReplyDeleteRYWVX off @ the 1030 window.
ReplyDeleteTWTR - Lockup expires today, so if the knockdown isn't due to this (according to my understanding, lockup doesn't cause this) then it's b/c TWTR is a cloaked turd.
ReplyDeleteWill it rally from here? Probably, but without me.
Global warming is a climate disruption. Okay, so mine the methane in the ocean floor before it dissolves and store CO2 there in it's place.
ReplyDeleteThere's a technical hurdle!
BSBR - I want to fade the poor buyout response by adding to this position.
ReplyDeleteBSBR - And this bull flag suggests another dollar coming.
ReplyDeleteI bought some XCO at $6.07. Small position. Their balance sheet is a mess but they have pushed out liabilities quite a bit and they reduced overall indebtedness a lot this past couple of quarters. EBITDA is really high - they trade at around a 5.5x EV/EBITDA and if natty gas continues to rise in anticipation of LNG exporting XCO should benefit given their pretty low operating costs. That's my takeaway from the most recent report. I also like that it has held around $6 after that attempt to push it lower on earnings day. Seems to me that it is destined to fill that gap up around $6.5 and then push higher. With a 30%+ short interest any whiff of good news and its off to the races.
ReplyDeleteAdded a good amount more of XCO at $6.09. I took a closer look at the chart and it sure looks like it's coming out of a longer term basing pattern. The stock just bounced off the 200 DMA today. I don't know but this thing looks ready to run.
DeleteIt also basically doubled bottomed off the $5 area from 2009.
DeleteI guess we've seen the lows but certainly not the highs, for natty.
DeleteSorta looks like C&H with strong handle. No doubt the handle reflects general sentiment of the energy industry.
DeleteTSLA - Downtrend or testing support?
ReplyDeleteI'm really starting to feel like I have the anti-market portfolio. Days the market goes up, I have more stocks down than up and days like today when the market is poor, I have more stocks up than down.
ReplyDeleteOverall, I am happy with my performance this year and it sounds like a lot of people are having trouble with this market, but to me it seems to be moving in areas that make sense (energy,commodities, undervalued, overseas, losing stocks from 2013, etc.)
BALT/ENPH @ 6 and 7 is pretty freaking tempting...
ReplyDeleteCCJ - Okay, so what about leading climate change by example, with low carbon nuclear power?
ReplyDeleteThe $USD is selling off hard (UUP @ 52-wk low, or alternatively UDN @ 52-wk high). Which asset class benefits should the dollar crash? Both gold and miners acting 'cool' at the moment with modest declines for the day. Maintaining a position in SLW (Silver Wheaton), and adding a position in RYPMX (Rydex Precious Metals) at the close.
ReplyDeleteReopening a position on a Spring Sale in JCP, around 8 bucks
ReplyDeleteRYWVX closed the 1030 am window @ 70.93 (+1%). With EEM pulling back into the close, I would say the timing was perfect.
ReplyDeleteTA - Pretty bearish, they can't even report earnings.
ReplyDeleteBAC - Plenty of rats deserted this ship today...
ReplyDeleteURG - Someone's buying $1.12 or are they selling their position?
ReplyDeleteKWK - Just a hole in the KWKsand, not an oil well?
ReplyDeleteGRPN - Less loss than expected.
ReplyDeleteCongress - This group of pathetic geriatric patients are so old and conflicted they couldn't pass a stool if they were all to push it through in a bipartisan moment.
ReplyDeleteToday's the flash crash anniversary, eh?
ReplyDeleteENPH- Looks like we got the 'miss', but guidance was pretty strong. I bet it rallies tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteCurrently the bid is $7.26, someone's willing.
DeleteFEYE ?
ReplyDeleteNVAX - New vaccine.
ReplyDeleteFor MERS - I'm not sure how new this news really is.
DeleteFor $12 each ($3,000) all those kidnapped girls can go home, I bet about that much was spent kidnapping them and blowing up the school?
ReplyDeleteAIG - Someone said today's market mood may have some relationship with AIG's earnings report.
ReplyDeleteJust read the ENPH CC. Sounded pretty strong.
ReplyDeleteENPH - No changes to the broker's $12 target yet, but no comments yet either
DeleteTSL - Interesting, they have a $22 target on this one and currently it's $11, suggesting a double.
I think last time ENPH was beat up the same time we thought the market had rolled over, now I'm right back there again.
DeleteCRTO - Okay then, how about this one?
ReplyDeleteNIHD - Employees better get busy updating their resumes. ELNK too, for that matter.
GE - Ouch, glad you didn't take the breakout bait?
EQIX - Now trading at $188 on Broker's USA1 list with a 12mo price objective of $250
ReplyDeleteWe raise our nickel price forecasts from $7.30 to $8.05/lb for 2014, and from $8.09 to $10.81/lb for 2015. This implies nearly 30% upside to our FY3/14 RP estimate for Sumitomo Metal, and over 200% for Pacific Metals. Stainless steel majors Nisshin Steel (interest in Le Nickel) and Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal are also likely beneficiaries.
ReplyDeleteI've got about a 5% position in Nickel/Oil company Sherritt (S.TO) through my large holding in CKI.TO which is an investment company than owns and is trying to go activist on S.TO. S.TO is up 35% in the last few months and 50% from its low in February based on the activist action and the increasing price in Nickel (JJN). You probably can't buy S.To as they are in Cuba.
DeleteI'm not sure how far along we are in the Nickel Story - here is a recommendation from Dundee Capital back in January talking abuot playing Nickel and some stock recommendations - http://www.theglobeandmail.com/incoming/article16387291.ece/BINARY/BaseMetals011714.pdf
PBR - Nice move to upside.
ReplyDeleteODP - That's a lot of store closings (400), pruning the dead wood must have a positive impact on earnings?
JCP off pre-market @ 8.31.
ReplyDeleteVVUS - ?
ReplyDeleteEVEP - ?
Still have my eye on GTS as well, maybe it flops around for another quarter and we can catch it?
DeleteENPH - $7.55 is the line in the sand.
MTW - Today the Transportation Dept submits their budget, right? I hear it's going to be impressive.
ReplyDeleteCan't remember if I posted or not, but am looking to sell BSBR. I don't really want to own SAN and even though some are suggesting not tendering BSBR and just holding (Morningstar bumped their target to $9), I think it just trades in line with SAN until November.
ReplyDeleteNot going to rush the sale, but try to sell into strength on a good day. It's at $6.64, but the takeout is around $6.90, so price will naturally go up over time as time cost of money goes down. INcluding the return of capital, it will be over a 30% gain in 9 months, so I'm very happy with that.
Seems like you're not the only one who thinks risk is too high vs upside potential.
DeleteAnd you mentioned a couple days ago FLWS isn't under priced any longer either, so maybe we should cut them both.
DeleteCP, I agree re GTS. IF we could get a retest of $15, would be a good entry point. Even at $16.50, it's not bad as it has rarely been lower than this much in the 5 years, so I could justify paying up for it, but I think the odds are reasonable we get something lower over the next couple of months
ReplyDeleteCOCO - Umm, not looking very good.
ReplyDeleteNLY - Wow....
ReplyDeleteIt wont happen because I'm thinking of it but we crash today.
ReplyDeleteSame here, I have a feeling we've rolled over and headed down for a good while, thus we're going up. Pretty sickening feeling.
DeleteSold BSBR at $6.67
ReplyDeleteI think FLWS is still a good hold, but I'd understand selling it. I think this quarter will be better and I do like their longer term positioning as people move more buying to the internet.
ReplyDeleteI really like the name of this company, LOL...
DeleteThe other thing about FLWS is it recovered well from the last quarter earnings miss - I think it means people want to buy it, os if we do get a good quarter, could get a nice bump.
DeleteThat's a good point, based on that it makes sense to add on weakness.
DeleteNM getting interesting again as well. Still holding half, but considering re-adding the half I sold before if it gets down much lower.
ReplyDeleteURG - There she blows, someone ran out of money.
ReplyDeleteYellen - Economy still needs FED to maintain low rates.
ReplyDeleteKWK - Quicksand still plunging
ReplyDeleteERY - Looking any better yet?
ReplyDeleteBaltic Dry Index (BDI) No change 1022
ReplyDeleteBSBR - I'm out too, $6.67 Done, thanks for that one, BB!
ReplyDeleteAt least enough to put dinner on the table for an entire year.
DeleteGood stuff CP
DeleteTSL - Wow, quite a hit man!
ReplyDeleteSend me in there with $3k and I'll gladly buy those kidnapped girls for the selling price offer and bring them home.
ReplyDeleteNRG - This solar stock isn't crashing.
ReplyDeletePEIX - Trying to close that gap up from $10, before heading to $20's?
ReplyDeleteWhole Foods - When does 2nd time the bounce?
ReplyDeletePeople don't seem to be buying the secular growth story stocks anymore.
DeleteThere are some good ones like SBUX I'd love to buy if it gets hit hard enough
I picked up a tranche of TWTR @ 30.08...
ReplyDeleteFIATY taking a 10% hit on their strategic plan. Hmmmm.
ReplyDeleteI think the Dodge diesel 1/2 ton is going to be a big hit, but I'm concerned about the 6-speed transmissions they're installing in some vehicles b/c they had some history of bugs.
DeleteNot sure what to do about the miners here. On the one hand, I like to cut losses immediately. On the other hand, (a) miners are near record lows right now, and had I not opened positions yesterday I'd open them now + (b) position sizes are small. Inclined to hold.
ReplyDeleteMy big SWAG involves a $US rally but at some point the threat is unlikely to keep working.
DeleteSold the GIB I bought last month for a 4% gain. Got the bounce from their Obamacare prgramming overreaction, but based on more research, would rather buy something else for the longer term.
ReplyDelete$1B IPO
ReplyDeleteMy XCO got crushed today. I sold at the lows of the day. I also decided to cash in SNE at a small loss. Still holding a few other small positions. Bought a little TZA after hours at $17.92. Licking my wounds from the past couple of weeks. I'm not down about 2% this year which is really annoying given I was up about 10% a couple of months ago. Should have just stayed in cash.
ReplyDeleteStill got ENPH?
Deletethat dog!? of course not.
DeleteEven after earnings announcement last night? I wanted to buy it at the open but chickened out.
DeleteYeah I sold at $7.30 a while ago, capitulating at what I thought was the low.
DeleteI did manage to sell my TZA afterhours at $17.96 for a mild profit, so I got that going for me!
I bought a little of that, gonna sit on it.
DeletePrice action today is unusual it tagged the 50 sma and than went down and tagged the 200 sma, negative is it closed near lows.
Seems to have risk to the 5.3 to 5.00 level.
Really I'm too sick, I should just wait till I'm better to trade. But if it goes against me I just ignore it, definitely bad idea.
TZA closed $0.01 better than open. :)
DeleteHope you feel better t3. How is TX?
DeleteEPAM - Hopped on news Putin's back to the table?
ReplyDeleteI like this article, and the sector is getting beat to heck.
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/2192133-the-o-zone-understanding-oxygens-role-in-making-biobased-companies-rock?source=yahoo
Okay, maybe we should buy UUP pretty soon? On the premise stocks won't rally along with the $US?
ReplyDeleteWell I decided to buy SPXS today after hours at $30.01. I really think we're due for a big down day soon. Maybe a gap down of 30 points or so. I'm seeing some of the big dogs starting to get taken down / reversing (including BAC, DIS, F, WFM, GNC) so maybe this bleeds over to other sectors? Who knows.
ReplyDeleteI know everyone thinks the market is coming down for many reasons, but I keep looking at my stocks and see good reasons to own them. No doubt they would get pulled down by a broad market pullback, but then I'd probably just want to buy more.
DeleteFrom today's news:
Good numbers out of insurer AGO and JONE probably too (although it is harder to tell with energy companies).
EXE.TO making good progress on the spinout of their US division. The Canadian division can fund the 7% dividend, and the US division is probably worth around the same as the Candian division, so if the spinout can happen, could be a double.
Even SXP.TO, Canada's largest envelope maker, had a good quarter with a slight increase in revenues and good profits and dividend.
Yeah I noticed insiders have been bailing on AGO for a decent while now. Kind of think that run might be over.
DeleteOn the other hand, I'm looking at several things that have gotten pummeled lately:
DeleteVSI / GNC
WFM
FIG
CIT
Wondering if those are buying opps. Part of me wonders if we are going to go through a long slow grind lower though because overall valuations aren't too compelling if we don't get much growth.
Re AGO, Wilbur Ross has made a couple of big sales, but continues to be the largest holder. I think he was happy owning a lot of it at $12, but is managing risk and selling as it rises. But from a company perspective, a lot fo things are going well as Detroit and Puerto Rico get their acts together and no new municipal troubles have arisen. Claims should be dropping and profits going up.
DeleteBut you're right about a lot of stocks coming down. Was looking at Visa (V), down to $200 a few days ago from over $230 and a fwd p/e under 20. Great company to own, but still relatively expensive, but not super-expensive relative to it's monopolistic position - the question is does it keep coming down to a 15 p/e and become a compelling buy, or is this as good as it gets and you just have to pay up. No way of knowing of course and a lot depends on how positive people feel on the markets.
The air is thick with pollen, surely NY's are feeling grouchy.
DeleteTSLA - down 7% on greater than acceptable loss.
ReplyDeleteGood results from FTD - could bode well for FLWS. Plus, I didn't realize this, but if you compare the valuations of the 2, FTD is much higher valued (twice the p/s), but has a lower forward p/e. Implies that if FLWS can get things going better and get same level of earnings, stock would double to get same p/s.
ReplyDeleteFTD Companies, Inc. (FTD): Q1 EPS of $0.50 beats by $0.08.Revenue of $189.9M (-0.2% Y/Y) beats by $8.9M.
Double, double, oh yes, a big wet kiss for you! :)
DeleteNo comment from anyone on BALT?
ReplyDeleteI'm getting ready to get back on the horse even though it looks like Patricia is going to have surgery again. I've felt like such a wuss the last few months.
Still marveling at NLS!
DeleteBSBR - Boy that sure was a ton of volume today.
ReplyDeleteNLY - Ouch.
ReplyDeleteChesapeake crab winter cold kill of 30%
SAN - Gaped up
ReplyDeleteSpanish bonds yields now at lowest levels ever (under 3%) based on Draghi's speech - helps the banks.
DeleteIt helps the banks b/c they loaded up on gov debt, better than gold b/c it counts as capital reserves? I guess if they can time it (why shouldn't they be able, they have excellent visibility and an inside track) they can rotate to loaning the public some money, or maybe it's called leveraging their debt capital? All I know is, banks are smarter than me and their losses are socialized, so why not own them?
DeleteI see they just had earnings.
AGO up 5% on last night's strong results - hard to see how business is not good for these guys for the next few years unless we hit another recession.
ReplyDeleteYep, it's up pretty good.
DeleteAdvances 349
ReplyDeleteUnchanged 5
Declines 146
SORL continuing to dog it after the last quarter's results - stock is down over 1/3 from $4.50 to under $3.00.
ReplyDeleteThought I would get a bounce to sell into, but guess a lot of people, like me, thought the results were weak and are trying to get out.
Q1 they projected sales up 10%, so maybe we get a bounce on that. Stock is at a p/e of 6 and fwd p/e of 4, so cheap, but not sure it matters without some better numbers to back it up.
Still feeling a bit lost at the wheel here. I got stopped out of the SPXS at $29.65. I bought some VE and FIATY this morning.
ReplyDeleteJoin the club! :)
DeleteFTD - Bingo!
ReplyDeleteBALT looks interesting to me. But I still am concerned about the two catalysts of coal and China infrastructure demand slowing down / going away and with the supply of ships still quite high I think they need huge demand drivers in order to get rates up significantly. I have a feeling it will be a slow slow grind higher if rates go up.
ReplyDeleteTSL - My broker has a $22 price objective on this $10.70 stock.
ReplyDeleteOINK is one Chinese stock that hasn't given up the ghost.
I'm still holding my DATE. Underwater a few percent. I like it a lot but shit its a scam China company right?
DeleteENPH - Going to at least $10 ?
ReplyDeleteDoh. Just realized I didn't buy FIATY yet. I think I had a buy order but didn't go through with it.
ReplyDeleteI'm really disappointed we aren't having that big scary sell off I keep hearing about.....
ReplyDeleteGTS - I'm about ready to buy this one....
ReplyDeleteJONE must have said something on the concal, because all of a sudden jumped to +10% on the day a few minutes ago.
ReplyDeleteWill have to read the transcipt.