Two trades I made in the past 24 hours which will be recorded retroactively:
(a) JCP closed @ 9.87 after Thursday's close (opened the day before around 8.71). (b) WWE slammed this morning, down almost -50%. I opened a small position @ 9.98, off the mat @ 10.27.
I think the broad markets are not sure what to do. There are reasons they could go up or down. We had such a big move last year, you could say they are consolidating for another move up or building a broad top. Wouldn't be surprised to see this back and forth continue until it becomes clear if the economy is accelerating or slowing down.
CP, re FLWS, there really isn't anything I see to drive this stock up or down for the next while. Q2 results will be end-July-ish.
But I find with small stocks like FLWS, they often just do nothing for extended periods, then move up or down quickly for no apparent reason. If you wait for the move, it's often too late.
The way I look at it is, if it doubles, even if it take 3 years, it's still 25% annualized and I am happy with that. But my approach is to try and find 20 of these types of stocks and know some will do it and some won't, but overall it is a winning strategy. For you, with your more concentrated portfolio (I believe), you may not want to wait.
I know its not a popular thought but I think there's a decent chance we rally from here in the very short term. I think the Russell 2000 test of Feb lows might be all the bears can muster for now. More selling comes in a week or two.
"Below is a look at the quarter-to-date and year-to-date stock market performance for 75 countries around the world. So far this quarter, the average change for the 75 countries shown has been +1.12%. For the year, the average country is up 4.76%."
4.76% in May is pretty much an average year - should get to about 10% by year. Because the U.S. was so good last year, makes sense it is underperforming this year. To me, it seems a lot of people are looking for drama and downside this year and seems like we are just getting a steady, boring year.
Look at the momo names...some of them have had absolutely zero bounce for a long ass time. SPLK is the poster child. $106 to $41. I mean I get it they're expensive. But everyone in the world is saying the same thing. So maybe we're due for a bounce here.
I bailed on half of my holdings today. I can't get out of the way of stocks quick enough it seems. I have not had something stay up for more than 2 days in at least a month. Down 7% on the year now and really that's almost entirely attributable to FIG, XCO and SNE, not exactly high fliers.
A lot of people having a tough time this year. I'm still doing fine, but mainly because my energy and commodity stocks like AA have done really well.
I find US based traders often miss markets like this because the commodities (energy, metals, ag) segments are very small relative to the stocks in the global economy and the stocks that count as basic materials like DD are more related to the industrial product cycle than the commodity cycle. It is the reason the US market underperformed so much in the 2003 - 2007 market and I don't think we see anything as dramatic this time, but it seems we are moving into that part of the business cycle.
Opening small positions in the following at today's close: RYPMX (miners, down another -1% today), RYJUX (Inverse long bond-> the long bond has had a spectacular run), RYRSX (2x Russell 2000-> plan to close at the 1030 window Monday win or lose).
Going into the close I did buy a little TNA at $64.17 to play what I think is a possible bounce to around 1,130 to 1,140. I think the Russell 2000 is heading into a nasty bear market. However over the next 4 to 6 months I think it trades between 1,000 and 1,130.
Gaps always fill I guess(well maybe not completely). Worse part is we could've just kept averaging down and now we'd surely be green... That strategy seems to work out most of the time.
If it wasn't for that little $200 million or so potential IRS liability I'd consider it some more. They will prob settle out of court. I hate to say it but they prob need their over weight CEO to step down for obesity if they have a shot of surviving. The pay and perks (private jet) are excessive for a small money losing operation.
"Putin has moved Bastion anti-ship missiles into Crimea. Those missiles have a 300-mile range and can destroy an aircraft carrier. Also this morning, the U.S. is charging China with cyber-spying on American firms. I think today/tomorrow are critical for the near-term direction of the equity markets."
Say what???.. "H.C. Wainwright initiated coverage on General Moly (NYSE: GMO) with a Buy rating and a price target of $1.70.
Analyst Heiko F. Ihle said, "We arrive at our estimated NAV based on a DCF valuation of theMt. Hope and Liberty projects, utilizing long-term molybdenum prices of $14 per pound and a discount rate of 13.0% for Mt. Hope and 14.0% for Liberty. We therefore value General Moly’s 80% ownership of Mt. Hope at $129.7 million, or $1.41 per share, and the Liberty project at a 0.7x multiple to our NAV for a total of $11.7 million, or $0.13 per share. To this, we add net cash and round to the nearest $0.10 to arrive at our twelve month price target of $1.70."
the thing that concerns me of course is the trading in IWM and I think it is going to have a tough time getting any higher than 1,130ish (highs from last Monday). we could be heading into yet another rout in internet / momo stocks over the summer/fall and the valuation is high but i just see so much potential for this business. i think it could be a $200+ stock in a few years.
(a) Closed RYPMX for a +0.4% gain. (Gold/miners up slightly.) (b) Closed RYJUX for a +0.75% gain. (The long bond pulled back as expected.) (c) Closed RYRSX for a +2.08% gain. I elected to bypass the 1030 window in favor of the 345 window, which boosted returns by a fraction of a percent. (Small caps rallied harder than I expected.)
Still bearish longer term, but willing to fade short-term bearish sentiment when it appears extreme.
Uranium stocks have been pulling back. I think the recovery is slowly moving forward and I think, with a 5 year view, uranium should do well for all the fundamental reasons. I still don't see a rush to get into these - I think we are in that long, multi-year basing period before a strong bull where people get fed up and just sell.
Now study the chart on page 3 titled “Fear, Hope and Greed,” which is manifestly the psychological cycle of the markets. I think we are currently at “Relief,” with Optimism, Excitement, Thrill, and Euphoria yet to come.
Technically I guess it could always retrace to the low teens again. It's so damn cheap relative to its assets but the stock is in free fall at this point. Longer term from this point forward I see much more upside than downside.
AINV intrigues me. Do you guys follow this at all? Tim Melvin mentioned it when he was talking about how the private equity guys are getting into direct lending because a lot of banks are getting out of that space due to capital requirements. Pays a 10% dividend.
I think it was Christie's that had the record auction right? Either way, yeah it's a bad sign for the market in my opinion. The only difficult part is I think most people are negative on the market.
I added my last piece of VALE this morning at $13.2. Avg is now $13.45. Not a big position either, just think it is cheap relative to book and earnings and the overseas ones are outperforming.
The bigger cap momo stocks have had 2 good days so far. Let's see how long it lasts before the next smackdown. Maybe the market is differentiating amongst the momo stocks?
Re retail, the real question is if it is weather or sales lost to the web. If its weather, these stocks are good to buy. If its AMZN, EBAY, WMT, etc stealing market share, then these retailers probably are spending too much on real estate and need to rightsize.
I think a lot of them are coming to that conclusion. I'm actually surprised a company like OSTK doesn't get bought out as its a second tier company so you wouldn't be buying them for growth (or paying up for them)...instead you would be buying them because of their expertise at working an online distribution channel for 15 years.
OSTK - Isn't this one mostly a gold warehouse? Whether or not this is completely weather related is unclear but I suspect the market weakness does correlate at least partially.
Sold mortgage company ABR (Arbor Reality) this morning - up about 13% from my January purchase.
GM now back down to my purchase price. I'm torn between thinking "will the bad news ever end" and "if the stock can hang in here with all this bad news, wait till we actually get some good news".
NASD route theory..... In Europe right now there seems to be a bond short squeeze attempt in progress, so maybe this is the cause behind the selling we're observing?
Looks like Minyanville is shutting down (http://www.minyanville.com/special-features/random-thoughts/articles/todd-harrison-todd-harrison-minyanville-stock/5/20/2014/id/55007) or trying to be sold to a broker.
I personally haven't looked at them in ages, same with thestreet.com. I think those investment web sites had their day and people have moved on. TST stock still doggin it at $2.58
That's too bad. I stopped reading them a while ago too. Probably because I have a tough time listening to someone constantly harp on the negative aspect of things for 5 years like Todd Harrison did. Granted he may ultimately be proven right but lifes too short to waste focusing only on negatives and in the face of a rising market I don't think people want to hear that as much anymore.
Here's some interesting stats I compiled on CSCO in the early 90's: 1993 - traded between 8 and 16 times trailing sales 1994 - traded between 4.66 and 12.6 times trailing sales 1995 - traded between 6.7 and 14.8 times trailing sales
Gross margins were around 67%. I have a list of 16 leading momentum stocks / high growth stocks and a few of them are withing this range. Not as much money was spent on advertising / marketing back in those days from what I'm seeing in other stocks as well so they were profitable versus the ones now. Seems that the tactic now is to blow the money on sales/marketing in the hopes of dominating the space.
YELP trades at 16X trailing sales and about 10-11 times forward. CSCO was peaking around 10X forward each year. While CSCO made money, YELP has much higher gross margins (93%) and ultimately I think if they wanted to they would be able to net at least 30% on the bottom line.
I think the addressable market for YELP is enormous but there's a case to be made for further consolidation or downside in the stock to get in line with valuation. I might consider paring some back if it goes to the mid $60's but ultimately I think it's a $15 Billion company within 3-4 years. It's going to be extremely hard to knock them down from their perch.
SCON - Actually, I think this technology may have merit (possibly) in that the superconducting TRANSFORMER steps up/down voltages as any (terrorist vulnerable) transformer normally would but also acts like a surge protector device. The idea is, when kept cold in circulating liquid nitrogen, the wire has very low resistance to current flow but when a current surge develops the wire heats slightly and the resistance increases, which limits current. This is hard to accomplish using other technologies, a lot of effort has gone into attempting to develop semiconductor switches to accomplish this same thing, not sure how successful they've been at controlling these very high currents, it can be a heck of a lot of energy being handled which makes a bunch of heat when it's being switched on or off, and the heat is the problem b/c it will melt your switch.
SCON - No, this company is out of Austin. But, this isn't the only company to be developing/testing and even rolling out this technology, there are at least two others and one of them is Siemens. Probably GE is involved as well, this isn't exactly a revolutionary idea, the winner will be the one who can do it best, assuming it catches on (it may have already caught on, for all I know).
FLWS - $5.55 is the line in the sand here, I think they're gonna pound this one down soon and you'll be able to pick up some shares if you think it's got potential.
I sold half of my DATE yesterday and today around $5.3ish. I know its probably going to bounce and the valuation is kind of silly but it's a Chinese stock and we all know how "cheap" they can get.
GM is a tough one man. I just know from my own tastes I would never buy a GM because I think they don't make as nice cars as others. The only nice brand that I like is Cadillac. Then again, I wouldn't buy half of FIATY's brands (although the other half like Maserati etc I'd take!) but the stock is cheap enough to warrant a look.
Re VALE, I don't have a good understanding of the iron ore market, so I'm staying away. You can't get quotes or charts or inventory info on sites like Kitco, so it is hard to know where things really stand. Iron ore is China related, like Copper and Nickel, etc., but the info on iron ore just seems light and the market is controlled by 3 big companies, which is great if they co-operate, but who knows. If I was going to buy one, I would buy BHP, because they have iron ore, other metals and energy (so basically playing the diversification due to lack of confidence ) so not really accomplishing the same thing as VALE.
I can't really speak for the current lineup but the cars built in the early 2000's are easily reaching into the upper 250,000 mile range with regular normal maintenance and not so many expensive failures. They deliver in the high 20's fuel mileage as well.
GM did take some shortcuts though, some of the plastic interior parts are cheaply made from ABS as opposed to more durable materials like HDPE, and up in the salty rust belt they're known for rust out in some unusual places, up inside the chassis supports b/c the metal prep is not as good as it could've been.
Honestly, I don't think I could wear one out in my lifetime the way I drive, unless maybe I was a traveling salesman or the trips I drive were abusive in some way like 100mi everyday on dirt/gravel roads.
$25,000/250,000 is what, $0.10/mile excluding normal maintenance and fuel? GM knows how to stretch a penny.
He had a rough period there, but I believe he is doing well again and he that record of beating the S&P, so having a smart guy like that on your side is always good.
We think General Motors' car models are of the best quality and design in decades. The company is already a leader in truck models, so a competitive lineup in all segments, combined with a much smaller cost base, leads us to think that GM will be printing money as vehicle demand recovers.
When I hear stuff like that it never does seem to come true for some reason, like rates were supposed to go up and that didn't happen but for a brief period. I do think GM makes some great vehicles though, there really aren't any bad ones out there anymore for that matter but occasionally one slips through that has a problem, like a new transmission design that proves to be unreliable or they cut corners on the materials.
I've had some friends with dodge trucks and all of those transmission in that period of about 15yrs ago failed within about the first 60,000 miles. And these owners were stuck with the repair bill, they just took it on the chin and repaired them with barely a complaint. Betcha, ANCO transmission shops probably made a ton of money on those pickups.
Re GM, at the current price, assuming their cars and trucks are reasonable and the lawsuits end sometime soon, stock is very cheap relative to the market:
Toyota - 10.1 million cars; $170B market cap;$301B EV Volkswagon - 9.2 million cars; $120B market cap; $215B EV GM - 9.3 million cars; $54B market cap; $65B EV F - 5.6 million cars; $62B market cap; $155B EV
Re GM, I think there quality is better. They have been getting some good press and quality awards over the last while (eg. http://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/news.detail.html/content/Pages/news/us/en/2013/Jun/0617-gm-jdpower.html)
I am also unlikely to buy a GM (my last 4 cars have been Japnese). But, they are selling over a million cars a year in China and do better in North America. But even if they can just maintain their market share, they will sell a lot more cars with the overall market growing and if they can get a valuation on par or close to Ford, there is a lot of upside here. Plus, they've supposedly downsized the company to still be profitable, even at low volumes, so it is setting up to be a good business I think.
Pretty much all of the pundits are saying the S&P has to correct to match the Russell 2000 pullback, but if I run a 3 year chart comparing IWM to SPY, you can also make the case that IWM got extended to the upside above SPY and is now correcting in line.
Josh Brown saying today the IWM has corrected 36 time since 2000(?) and every time the SPY has followed it. I really wonder if this is the time that is different because of the huge outperformance of the IWM last year.
And if you just look at the broad economy and the S&P type stocks, I don't see anything saying its correction time. The SPY has been in a well-defined channel sine the beginning of 2013, so maybe it just continues.
I can't help but think that the economy probably will continue to grow so stocks should over time do well. they may drop but in the big picture longer-term I think they're going to go higher longer term. I waited and watch some of those highflyers last year just keep going and going and going without a pullback and now that they're down in a lot of cases 50% it just seems to me that so long as the growth is going to continue which I don't see why they wouldn't that now is probably the best time to be buying them. I know the Internet space pretty well so that's the space I like to focus on as far as these highflyers go and I know how quickly they can scale up and how important it is to have a huge network of users so the big winners I think are going to be the ones that have those huge networks. A lot of the ones like the fireyes and the workdays I think there's going to be a big winner there but it's a lot harder to choose from because you don't have the first mover advantage that you have in the Internet space. Having first mover advantage in the Internet space has been proven to be huge and it's been much more important than any other sector. I think the local advertising market is going to be one of the biggest internet markets so I think Yelp has a massive opportunity and I think it's undervalued in terms of the opportunity and the fact that it has first mover advantage obviously compared to sales earnings or anything like that it's just very expensive.
I guess the question is how much profit can they generate from their content versus the pressures they are under on the much larger electronics side of the business.
Hussman quite snarky this week - http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc140519.htm
Also, I don't quite get how he can say the Dow going from 100 to 400 in the 1920's is similar to it going from 650 to 1050 in the 1970's. It really doesn't make sense for a guy who tries to portray himself as calm and reasoned.
LMT - Pentagon - We're going to be spending shit-tons more money on defense in the decades ahead, and we'll be buying many more planes and technology built by Lockheed. We have unmanned robot vehicles on the drawing board that make Google's self-driven car look like a joke.
APD - Aren't most all volume semiconductors made in Taiwan these days? Anyway, APD supplies these guys with their process gasses, such as H2, N2, NH3, O2, SiH4 SiH2Cl, on and on. So if those semi's are running full tilt they tend to consume more of these process gasses.
Finviz says it's $0.80 EPS ttm, if you trust their data. Converting Yen to dollars can be done on google converters but I don't have the figure in Yen.
TOF, some interesting slides in the NM earnings presentation - file:///C:/Users/Brent/Downloads/NM%20Q1%202014%20Earnings%20Presentation%20(FINAL).pdf - slide 15
Appears over 20% of iron ore mines (mainly in China) are unprofitable at current prices so, assuming normal economic theory (which may not apply in China!), many of these mines should shut, reducing supply and increasing prices over time.
I find with a lot of these foreign stocks, you are better off looking at the numbers in their local currencies rather than trying to to do p/e etc. on the US listed ADR's.
For SONY, take a look at: http://uk.reuters.com/business/quotes/financialHighlights?symbol=6758.T http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/6758:JP
I agree and also agree about the iron ore comments. Vale has 1.5% exposure to coal vs larger exposure for balt which is why at this time I prefer vale. Plus I like bigger cap companies now. I am only allocating 5% to this space though
Re the internet stocks, if you can do, that's a great way to make money. I always have a tough time paying up for them, but sure would have been nice if I had paid up for GOOG, etc. Re YELP, it is down 50% from the highs but still up 300% from 18 months ago and the standard metrics don't say cheap, but if the growth is there, maybe this is as good as it gets.
Goog traded at 16x sales in its first year, at much higher levels of sales and lower gross margins. They were profitable though which is huge. I see yelp only at a 0.3% penetration of the entire local advertising space. And I think they're the undisputed leader but they will have tough competition. It will be a bumpy ride I'm sure with plenty of trading opportunities
Well it was up 19% from the lows through yesterdays highs so it could easily give back a lot. My cost is $55 on my initial entry. I would add more if it got down below $50.
I thought Bill Miller made an excellent point yesterday about rates. He mentioned that there was talk of ECB doing negative rates and in that environment, a 2.5% "risk-free" yield looks very attractive.
Yes US Ts are supposedly risk free. But regardless of that fact its the lowest risk investment out there and that could be an excellent explanation for the drop in rates despite what appears to be a slightly stronger US economy and Fed tapering.
GM could actually be good for a trade here. Was 25% higher at the start of the year and does not seem to be going down on bad news. A lot of the value type guys are liking it, so appear to be buying into weakness which could provide a firm base.
The risk is that there is more bad news coming, but you have to think it is all out now, but maybe not if the problems run deeper.
I kind of agree with you. It depends in part on a growing market for cars in the near term but at these levels it appears that buying and holding the stock for the next 5 years should turn out to be a solid investment.
Good entry so far, good luck. I think there's a lot of talk about FB and GOOG killing them. Listen to that interview I posted above when you get a chance because he puts it perfectly...competition has a shit load of other stuff going on and aren't focused exclusively on local like YELP is and therefore, integrating it with the other services and the rest of the site may hurt customer satisfaction etc. GOOG has been at it for 9 years now and still YELP has grown revenues like 5,000% since then.
One concern you could have is if the economy goes into the tank and advertising dollars go down. But they only have 75k businesses advertising with them right now which is about 0.3% of the addressable market. And some of their revenues come from the groupon like deals and just regular deals that businesses advertise on their page on the site...and those would probably increase if businesses are struggling to attract customers.
My 200 share stake in ESTE is up 70% since I bought it and looks like its turning into a momo stock. I found it when I found STS back in 2012 because some poster on their board was in it and I liked it. They had a weird merger that I can't quite figure out but its such a small position that I'm not gonna waste time reading about it too much. Looks good.
Two trades I made in the past 24 hours which will be recorded retroactively:
ReplyDelete(a) JCP closed @ 9.87 after Thursday's close (opened the day before around 8.71).
(b) WWE slammed this morning, down almost -50%. I opened a small position @ 9.98, off the mat @ 10.27.
Should have gone another round with WWE!
DeletePretty good 2nd, I was wondering if you still had the JCP when I saw the news reaction.
ReplyDeleteTWTR @ 32.45.
ReplyDeleteOff 32.75.
DeleteURG - Just cazy. Sorta like JCP, how does one figure this stuff out?
ReplyDeleteBB- Thanks for the 13F link. I saved the file.
ReplyDeleteYeah, way nicer than trying to go through the SEC web site and figure it out.
DeleteIf you sign up at http://www.tinyletter.com/13f-ideas/ I think you get it every quarter.
WWE round 2. Open 10.64, close 10.85.
ReplyDeleteHonestly, I feel the markets could tumble any day.
ReplyDeleteNice win on JCP.
DeleteI think the broad markets are not sure what to do. There are reasons they could go up or down. We had such a big move last year, you could say they are consolidating for another move up or building a broad top. Wouldn't be surprised to see this back and forth continue until it becomes clear if the economy is accelerating or slowing down.
CP, re FLWS, there really isn't anything I see to drive this stock up or down for the next while. Q2 results will be end-July-ish.
ReplyDeleteBut I find with small stocks like FLWS, they often just do nothing for extended periods, then move up or down quickly for no apparent reason. If you wait for the move, it's often too late.
The way I look at it is, if it doubles, even if it take 3 years, it's still 25% annualized and I am happy with that. But my approach is to try and find 20 of these types of stocks and know some will do it and some won't, but overall it is a winning strategy. For you, with your more concentrated portfolio (I believe), you may not want to wait.
Yeah, more than a couple/few stocks in my port makes it too complicated for me to keep track.
DeleteSPY - Well, the gap down from yesterday still needs filling.
ReplyDeleteI know its not a popular thought but I think there's a decent chance we rally from here in the very short term. I think the Russell 2000 test of Feb lows might be all the bears can muster for now. More selling comes in a week or two.
ReplyDeleteYou're right, it's not popular.
DeleteFLWS - Offed half of the position in case it drops this afternoon, for a 1% gain.
ReplyDeleteFrom Bespoke:
ReplyDelete"Below is a look at the quarter-to-date and year-to-date stock market performance for 75 countries around the world. So far this quarter, the average change for the 75 countries shown has been +1.12%. For the year, the average country is up 4.76%."
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/5/16/country-stock-market-performance.html
4.76% in May is pretty much an average year - should get to about 10% by year. Because the U.S. was so good last year, makes sense it is underperforming this year. To me, it seems a lot of people are looking for drama and downside this year and seems like we are just getting a steady, boring year.
Look at the momo names...some of them have had absolutely zero bounce for a long ass time. SPLK is the poster child. $106 to $41. I mean I get it they're expensive. But everyone in the world is saying the same thing. So maybe we're due for a bounce here.
ReplyDeleteI'm referring to the Russell 2000 stocks.
DeleteI wish I had shorted SPX 1998, LOL :)
Delete3 day weekends tend to be more bullish than most.
ReplyDeleteMore calls for the long-awaited correction, this morning,
ReplyDeleteWorld Cup - Should be held in the desert somewhere, Qatar sounds good.
ReplyDeleteManaged to offload a few more shares at $5.63, in prep for the inevitable retest of recent lows.
ReplyDeleteI bailed on half of my holdings today. I can't get out of the way of stocks quick enough it seems. I have not had something stay up for more than 2 days in at least a month. Down 7% on the year now and really that's almost entirely attributable to FIG, XCO and SNE, not exactly high fliers.
ReplyDeleteA lot of people having a tough time this year. I'm still doing fine, but mainly because my energy and commodity stocks like AA have done really well.
DeleteI find US based traders often miss markets like this because the commodities (energy, metals, ag) segments are very small relative to the stocks in the global economy and the stocks that count as basic materials like DD are more related to the industrial product cycle than the commodity cycle. It is the reason the US market underperformed so much in the 2003 - 2007 market and I don't think we see anything as dramatic this time, but it seems we are moving into that part of the business cycle.
Sold out of the rest of my FIG, SNE, FIATY. Only holding the shitty little DANG which I'm probably married to. Ironically.
DeleteNot that it matters but I think that's a smart move. I sold SNE right before I saw this.
DeleteDude, isn't it DATE?
DeleteYou could be right BB. The list of stocks that I have been targeting overseas are all doing fairly well:
DeletePKX
VALE
PBR
SBS
VE
Too bad your not here in Ptown. I'd blow off my afternoon and hang at the river over beers, clams, and muscles.
DeleteMark - Yeah you're right. DATE, which is down 4% today and is my largest holding now. I did actually buy some VALE and FCX today at $13.75 and $34.72.
DeleteHa - the one stock in my long term account that I have 200 shares of and never even check: ESTE - up 22% today. Of course!
DeleteChity-chity dang-dang......
DeleteESTE - Whooo-hooo! :)
ERY is green fellas.......
screw it i added to fcx and vale...both appear to be coming out of big basing patterns and fit the mold of whats working now
ReplyDeleteFLWS - Okay, we got the handle, now up to my limit order please!
ReplyDeleteOpening small positions in the following at today's close: RYPMX (miners, down another -1% today), RYJUX (Inverse long bond-> the long bond has had a spectacular run), RYRSX (2x Russell 2000-> plan to close at the 1030 window Monday win or lose).
ReplyDeleteScan:
ReplyDeleteDown on Year
Up 10% in Past Quarter
Profitable
not in USA:
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=fa_pe_profitable,geo_notusa,ta_perf_ytddown,ta_perf2_13w10o&o=marketcap
Going into the close I did buy a little TNA at $64.17 to play what I think is a possible bounce to around 1,130 to 1,140. I think the Russell 2000 is heading into a nasty bear market. However over the next 4 to 6 months I think it trades between 1,000 and 1,130.
ReplyDeletemeant between 900 and 1100ish
DeleteBased on my recent experiences, the key phrase in the above post is 'a little.' That significantly lessens the odds of the trade moving against you!
DeleteMost of my recent trades are up for a max of 2 days
Delete...and you know it don't come easy
DeleteCheck this out. https://www.robinhood.com/?ref=VDHguW
ReplyDeleteWonder if they insure up to $200k
DeleteYep, same coverage they all have.
DeleteThere's 340,000 people ahead of me.
DeleteI'd love trailing stops, nearly a set and forget money pump.
DeleteI hate to say it but FMD is coming close to breakeven
ReplyDeleteGaps always fill I guess(well maybe not completely). Worse part is we could've just kept averaging down and now we'd surely be green... That strategy seems to work out most of the time.
DeleteFMD only traded 50K shares Friday.
DeleteIf it wasn't for that little $200 million or so potential IRS liability I'd consider it some more. They will prob settle out of court. I hate to say it but they prob need their over weight CEO to step down for obesity if they have a shot of surviving. The pay and perks (private jet) are excessive for a small money losing operation.
DeleteI suppose we can still count on TSHTF at some point.
DeleteSold FCX at $35.05 and tza at $63.7
ReplyDeleteBought back into vale 13.51. I forgot to post I sold it Friday for a small loss
ReplyDeleteNice timing, jumping out then back in.
DeletePMs up, eh? Is this the month Treasury rates crash?
ReplyDeleteKNDI- Any interest in this POS anymore?
ReplyDeleteNo I have another china pos that's enough
DeleteLong starter in yelp
ReplyDeleteFLWS - Took second half off. $5.66 so now she can rip.
ReplyDeleteJeff Saut today:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm
"Putin has moved Bastion anti-ship missiles into Crimea. Those missiles have a 300-mile range and can destroy an aircraft carrier. Also this morning, the U.S. is charging China with cyber-spying on American firms. I think today/tomorrow are critical for the near-term direction of the equity markets."
DeleteSay what???.. "H.C. Wainwright initiated coverage on General Moly (NYSE: GMO) with a Buy rating and a price target of $1.70.
ReplyDeleteAnalyst Heiko F. Ihle said, "We arrive at our estimated NAV based on a DCF valuation of theMt. Hope and Liberty projects, utilizing long-term molybdenum prices of $14 per pound and a discount rate of 13.0% for Mt. Hope and 14.0% for Liberty. We therefore value General Moly’s 80% ownership of Mt. Hope at $129.7 million, or $1.41 per share, and the Liberty project at a 0.7x multiple to our NAV for a total of $11.7 million, or $0.13 per share. To this, we add net cash and round to the nearest $0.10 to arrive at our twelve month price target of $1.70."
Actually, I was surprised to see Molly at 14 right now. That's a 40% move from the last time I checked.
DeleteIf only I could understand why moly should go higher......
DeleteI've lost my confidence from last week's beating, I think something changed for me,
ReplyDeleteINVN - Thought it looked overdone.
ReplyDeleteBought some more VALE today at $13.37. Trades at 6X EPS and 2/3 of book value.
ReplyDeletethe thing that concerns me of course is the trading in IWM and I think it is going to have a tough time getting any higher than 1,130ish (highs from last Monday). we could be heading into yet another rout in internet / momo stocks over the summer/fall and the valuation is high but i just see so much potential for this business. i think it could be a $200+ stock in a few years.
ReplyDeleteThe thing is, no doubt some stocks were/are being thrown out with the bathwater.
ReplyDelete(a) Closed RYPMX for a +0.4% gain. (Gold/miners up slightly.)
ReplyDelete(b) Closed RYJUX for a +0.75% gain. (The long bond pulled back as expected.)
(c) Closed RYRSX for a +2.08% gain. I elected to bypass the 1030 window in favor of the 345 window, which boosted returns by a fraction of a percent. (Small caps rallied harder than I expected.)
Still bearish longer term, but willing to fade short-term bearish sentiment when it appears extreme.
That's great bro. If I did that the only thing different would be a - infront of the %.
DeleteLast year I had the same feeling whenever I thought about following one of tof's trades!
DeleteUEC/URG - Uranium on a tear?
ReplyDeleteI glanced at a bearish article on it the other day. I think it was comments from CCJ. Want me to see if I can find it?
DeleteNah, I'm not in the mood really to go for it..
DeleteUranium stocks have been pulling back. I think the recovery is slowly moving forward and I think, with a 5 year view, uranium should do well for all the fundamental reasons. I still don't see a rush to get into these - I think we are in that long, multi-year basing period before a strong bull where people get fed up and just sell.
DeleteBest Twitz of the day!
ReplyDelete"$CADC 价格承压,但下行空间有限"
91 shares traded today, LOL....
DeleteHaha
DeleteHow is it that some people can trade stocks at 5:30am EST? This is pre pre-market.
ReplyDeleteFrom Saut's report. Seems correct to me:
ReplyDeleteNow study the chart on page 3 titled “Fear, Hope and Greed,” which is manifestly the psychological cycle of the markets. I think we are currently at “Relief,” with Optimism, Excitement, Thrill, and Euphoria yet to come.
YELP- Man, that's some pretty fast trading in for a pretty big stock.
ReplyDeleteIt's going to $200. Not sure if it goes to $40 first though.
DeleteDKS- Man, there are so many juvenile comments to be had...
ReplyDeleteSNE- A lot of reasons for this to be down more???
ReplyDeleteI think not.
DeleteTechnically I guess it could always retrace to the low teens again. It's so damn cheap relative to its assets but the stock is in free fall at this point. Longer term from this point forward I see much more upside than downside.
DeleteA lot of retail stocks getting hit today - even good ones like TJX and DKX.
ReplyDeleteMaybe retail stocks are just not ownable until they get rightsized to the new online shopping world?
We should probably own whomever's killing these box stores.
DeleteMy wife and the females on her side of the family all swear by both stores.
DeleteDoes she like orange hats?
DeleteFLWS - Well I hit that $5.54 offer and picked up those shares but they won't let me have the rest, partial fill.
ReplyDeleteI'm reminded of that song..."And you know it don't come easy..."
ReplyDeleteI still think BID is a major tell for the overall market.
ReplyDeleteAINV intrigues me. Do you guys follow this at all? Tim Melvin mentioned it when he was talking about how the private equity guys are getting into direct lending because a lot of banks are getting out of that space due to capital requirements. Pays a 10% dividend.
ReplyDeleteThat does sound interesting.
DeleteTurnaround tuesday? There, I said it.
ReplyDeleteLong TNA $64.17
ReplyDeleteAdded $63.93. Not exactly a big position...a whopping 400 shares.
DeleteAdded 200 more at $64.02.
DeleteAdded another 200 at $63.9
DeleteIt's as if winter never ended. Nuclear winter?
ReplyDeleteBID - If this one reflects the market then we should be short. They just had a record auction.
ReplyDeleteI think it was Christie's that had the record auction right? Either way, yeah it's a bad sign for the market in my opinion. The only difficult part is I think most people are negative on the market.
DeleteMaybe you're right, it was Christie's. There's also some kind of internal rivalry going on in one of these, I think I heard.
DeleteTSL - Upper $8's entry maybe?
ReplyDeleteI added my last piece of VALE this morning at $13.2. Avg is now $13.45. Not a big position either, just think it is cheap relative to book and earnings and the overseas ones are outperforming.
ReplyDeleteDKS - Umm, maybe not too many people go hunting when there's 3ft of snow and temps are single digit?
ReplyDeleteBACML hasn't revised their $68 target yet.
DeleteHIBB - Just when this one was preparing for launch, too....
Delete"19-May-14 12:52PM Sports Retailers' Q1 Earnings May Jog Higher at Investor's Business Daily"
DeleteThe bigger cap momo stocks have had 2 good days so far. Let's see how long it lasts before the next smackdown. Maybe the market is differentiating amongst the momo stocks?
ReplyDeleteArgghhh sold the TNA. $63.45.
ReplyDeleteRe retail, the real question is if it is weather or sales lost to the web. If its weather, these stocks are good to buy. If its AMZN, EBAY, WMT, etc stealing market share, then these retailers probably are spending too much on real estate and need to rightsize.
ReplyDeleteI think a lot of them are coming to that conclusion. I'm actually surprised a company like OSTK doesn't get bought out as its a second tier company so you wouldn't be buying them for growth (or paying up for them)...instead you would be buying them because of their expertise at working an online distribution channel for 15 years.
DeleteWouldn't invest in any mall REIT's now, I can tell you that.
DeleteOSTK - Isn't this one mostly a gold warehouse? Whether or not this is completely weather related is unclear but I suspect the market weakness does correlate at least partially.
DeleteSold mortgage company ABR (Arbor Reality) this morning - up about 13% from my January purchase.
ReplyDeleteGM now back down to my purchase price. I'm torn between thinking "will the bad news ever end" and "if the stock can hang in here with all this bad news, wait till we actually get some good news".
NASD route theory..... In Europe right now there seems to be a bond short squeeze attempt in progress, so maybe this is the cause behind the selling we're observing?
ReplyDeleteSheesh, wish I'd bot TZA last night.
ReplyDeleteIf we're wishing, I want NEWL - up 80% today. If yo're going to spend a wish, make it a good one!
DeleteYeah, I think I was looking at that one a few weeks back but seriously, what are the chances it's worth squat?
DeleteLooks like Minyanville is shutting down (http://www.minyanville.com/special-features/random-thoughts/articles/todd-harrison-todd-harrison-minyanville-stock/5/20/2014/id/55007) or trying to be sold to a broker.
ReplyDeleteI personally haven't looked at them in ages, same with thestreet.com. I think those investment web sites had their day and people have moved on. TST stock still doggin it at $2.58
That's too bad. I stopped reading them a while ago too. Probably because I have a tough time listening to someone constantly harp on the negative aspect of things for 5 years like Todd Harrison did. Granted he may ultimately be proven right but lifes too short to waste focusing only on negatives and in the face of a rising market I don't think people want to hear that as much anymore.
DeleteHere's some interesting stats I compiled on CSCO in the early 90's:
ReplyDelete1993 - traded between 8 and 16 times trailing sales
1994 - traded between 4.66 and 12.6 times trailing sales
1995 - traded between 6.7 and 14.8 times trailing sales
Gross margins were around 67%. I have a list of 16 leading momentum stocks / high growth stocks and a few of them are withing this range. Not as much money was spent on advertising / marketing back in those days from what I'm seeing in other stocks as well so they were profitable versus the ones now. Seems that the tactic now is to blow the money on sales/marketing in the hopes of dominating the space.
YELP trades at 16X trailing sales and about 10-11 times forward. CSCO was peaking around 10X forward each year. While CSCO made money, YELP has much higher gross margins (93%) and ultimately I think if they wanted to they would be able to net at least 30% on the bottom line.
I think the addressable market for YELP is enormous but there's a case to be made for further consolidation or downside in the stock to get in line with valuation. I might consider paring some back if it goes to the mid $60's but ultimately I think it's a $15 Billion company within 3-4 years. It's going to be extremely hard to knock them down from their perch.
I certainly like the risk at $57 better than I did at $100!
DeleteWe'll probably like it better at $40 too!
DeleteSCON - Actually, I think this technology may have merit (possibly) in that the superconducting TRANSFORMER steps up/down voltages as any (terrorist vulnerable) transformer normally would but also acts like a surge protector device. The idea is, when kept cold in circulating liquid nitrogen, the wire has very low resistance to current flow but when a current surge develops the wire heats slightly and the resistance increases, which limits current. This is hard to accomplish using other technologies, a lot of effort has gone into attempting to develop semiconductor switches to accomplish this same thing, not sure how successful they've been at controlling these very high currents, it can be a heck of a lot of energy being handled which makes a bunch of heat when it's being switched on or off, and the heat is the problem b/c it will melt your switch.
ReplyDeleteSo SCON perhaps shouldn't be completely ignored.
Well if its a China company it probably should. Is it? I'm too lazy to look
DeleteSCON - No, this company is out of Austin. But, this isn't the only company to be developing/testing and even rolling out this technology, there are at least two others and one of them is Siemens. Probably GE is involved as well, this isn't exactly a revolutionary idea, the winner will be the one who can do it best, assuming it catches on (it may have already caught on, for all I know).
ReplyDeleteDKS - Okay, just out of curiosity I'm watching to see if DKS bottoms around $42, in keeping with the construct of the 80/20 rule.
ReplyDeleteHIBB - 2x volume on this puppy today, someone's buying.
ReplyDeleteFLWS - $5.55 is the line in the sand here, I think they're gonna pound this one down soon and you'll be able to pick up some shares if you think it's got potential.
ReplyDeleteI sold half of my DATE yesterday and today around $5.3ish. I know its probably going to bounce and the valuation is kind of silly but it's a Chinese stock and we all know how "cheap" they can get.
ReplyDeleteI know first hand, Chinese stocks have a propensity for getting cheaper and cheaper.
DeleteGM is a tough one man. I just know from my own tastes I would never buy a GM because I think they don't make as nice cars as others. The only nice brand that I like is Cadillac. Then again, I wouldn't buy half of FIATY's brands (although the other half like Maserati etc I'd take!) but the stock is cheap enough to warrant a look.
ReplyDeleteThen again I thought VALE was cheap at $13.7, $13.4, and $13.2! It pays to keep positions small right now.
DeleteRe VALE, I don't have a good understanding of the iron ore market, so I'm staying away. You can't get quotes or charts or inventory info on sites like Kitco, so it is hard to know where things really stand. Iron ore is China related, like Copper and Nickel, etc., but the info on iron ore just seems light and the market is controlled by 3 big companies, which is great if they co-operate, but who knows. If I was going to buy one, I would buy BHP, because they have iron ore, other metals and energy (so basically playing the diversification due to lack of confidence ) so not really accomplishing the same thing as VALE.
DeleteI can't really speak for the current lineup but the cars built in the early 2000's are easily reaching into the upper 250,000 mile range with regular normal maintenance and not so many expensive failures. They deliver in the high 20's fuel mileage as well.
DeleteGM did take some shortcuts though, some of the plastic interior parts are cheaply made from ABS as opposed to more durable materials like HDPE, and up in the salty rust belt they're known for rust out in some unusual places, up inside the chassis supports b/c the metal prep is not as good as it could've been.
Honestly, I don't think I could wear one out in my lifetime the way I drive, unless maybe I was a traveling salesman or the trips I drive were abusive in some way like 100mi everyday on dirt/gravel roads.
$25,000/250,000 is what, $0.10/mile excluding normal maintenance and fuel? GM knows how to stretch a penny.
Bill Miller on CNBC right now. Said he likes FIATY more than any other car company but he also likes GM and the rest.
ReplyDeleteHe had a rough period there, but I believe he is doing well again and he that record of beating the S&P, so having a smart guy like that on your side is always good.
DeleteGLDD - Okay then, so who's going to be dredging out all these eastern ports once the canal expansion is completed?
ReplyDeleteRe GM from Morningstar:
ReplyDeleteWe think General Motors' car models are of the best quality and design in decades. The company is already a leader in truck models, so a competitive lineup in all segments, combined with a much smaller cost base, leads us to think that GM will be printing money as vehicle demand recovers.
When I hear stuff like that it never does seem to come true for some reason, like rates were supposed to go up and that didn't happen but for a brief period. I do think GM makes some great vehicles though, there really aren't any bad ones out there anymore for that matter but occasionally one slips through that has a problem, like a new transmission design that proves to be unreliable or they cut corners on the materials.
DeleteI've had some friends with dodge trucks and all of those transmission in that period of about 15yrs ago failed within about the first 60,000 miles. And these owners were stuck with the repair bill, they just took it on the chin and repaired them with barely a complaint. Betcha, ANCO transmission shops probably made a ton of money on those pickups.
Re GM, at the current price, assuming their cars and trucks are reasonable and the lawsuits end sometime soon, stock is very cheap relative to the market:
ReplyDeleteToyota - 10.1 million cars; $170B market cap;$301B EV
Volkswagon - 9.2 million cars; $120B market cap; $215B EV
GM - 9.3 million cars; $54B market cap; $65B EV
F - 5.6 million cars; $62B market cap; $155B EV
I haven't looked into the quality of the cars per Consumer Reports so I could be off. Just my perception of their brands.
DeleteRe GM, I think there quality is better. They have been getting some good press and quality awards over the last while (eg. http://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/news.detail.html/content/Pages/news/us/en/2013/Jun/0617-gm-jdpower.html)
DeleteI am also unlikely to buy a GM (my last 4 cars have been Japnese). But, they are selling over a million cars a year in China and do better in North America. But even if they can just maintain their market share, they will sell a lot more cars with the overall market growing and if they can get a valuation on par or close to Ford, there is a lot of upside here. Plus, they've supposedly downsized the company to still be profitable, even at low volumes, so it is setting up to be a good business I think.
Wow, I didn't realize how strong some econ reports were last week:
ReplyDeleteHousing Starts: http://wsj-us.econoday.com/showimage.asp?imageid=26555
Empire State Mfg Survey: http://wsj-us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=461245&cust=wsj-us&year=2014&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top
Jobless Claims: http://wsj-us.econoday.com/showimage.asp?imageid=26544
Pretty much all of the pundits are saying the S&P has to correct to match the Russell 2000 pullback, but if I run a 3 year chart comparing IWM to SPY, you can also make the case that IWM got extended to the upside above SPY and is now correcting in line.
DeleteJosh Brown saying today the IWM has corrected 36 time since 2000(?) and every time the SPY has followed it. I really wonder if this is the time that is different because of the huge outperformance of the IWM last year.
And if you just look at the broad economy and the S&P type stocks, I don't see anything saying its correction time. The SPY has been in a well-defined channel sine the beginning of 2013, so maybe it just continues.
I can't help but think that the economy probably will continue to grow so stocks should over time do well. they may drop but in the big picture longer-term I think they're going to go higher longer term. I waited and watch some of those highflyers last year just keep going and going and going without a pullback and now that they're down in a lot of cases 50% it just seems to me that so long as the growth is going to continue which I don't see why they wouldn't that now is probably the best time to be buying them. I know the Internet space pretty well so that's the space I like to focus on as far as these highflyers go and I know how quickly they can scale up and how important it is to have a huge network of users so the big winners I think are going to be the ones that have those huge networks. A lot of the ones like the fireyes and the workdays I think there's going to be a big winner there but it's a lot harder to choose from because you don't have the first mover advantage that you have in the Internet space. Having first mover advantage in the Internet space has been proven to be huge and it's been much more important than any other sector. I think the local advertising market is going to be one of the biggest internet markets so I think Yelp has a massive opportunity and I think it's undervalued in terms of the opportunity and the fact that it has first mover advantage obviously compared to sales earnings or anything like that it's just very expensive.
DeleteCSCO - I do still recall when nobody wanted this one.
ReplyDeleteI keep thinking about SNE and how much providers are paying for content....
ReplyDeleteI guess the question is how much profit can they generate from their content versus the pressures they are under on the much larger electronics side of the business.
DeleteAt least they have Abe behind them, Japanese monetary policy has to have been putting the screws on Korean companies.
DeleteHussman quite snarky this week - http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc140519.htm
ReplyDeleteAlso, I don't quite get how he can say the Dow going from 100 to 400 in the 1920's is similar to it going from 650 to 1050 in the 1970's. It really doesn't make sense for a guy who tries to portray himself as calm and reasoned.
I guess it never stops.
DeleteLMT - Pentagon - We're going to be spending shit-tons more money on defense in the decades ahead, and we'll be buying many more planes and technology built by Lockheed. We have unmanned robot vehicles on the drawing board that make Google's self-driven car look like a joke.
ReplyDeleteAPD - Aren't most all volume semiconductors made in Taiwan these days? Anyway, APD supplies these guys with their process gasses, such as H2, N2, NH3, O2, SiH4 SiH2Cl, on and on. So if those semi's are running full tilt they tend to consume more of these process gasses.
ReplyDeleteCS - Nobody goes to jail, just a fine shareholders must pay.
ReplyDeleteVa state tax receipts fall short of estimates by $300M
PAL - A contrarian play for the true connoisseur, will Pd go to $1000 and pull this company out of the demise?
ReplyDeleteHAYN - The ride to $60 has been completely erased.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteSNE- Can someone confirm the EPS in USD?
ReplyDeleteFinviz says it's $0.80 EPS ttm, if you trust their data. Converting Yen to dollars can be done on google converters but I don't have the figure in Yen.
DeleteI swear I think these FED heads must be hired by someone to say things that move the market up and down
ReplyDeleteYELP - Wonder what's up with the insider selling on this one?
ReplyDeleteTOF, some interesting slides in the NM earnings presentation - file:///C:/Users/Brent/Downloads/NM%20Q1%202014%20Earnings%20Presentation%20(FINAL).pdf - slide 15
ReplyDeleteAppears over 20% of iron ore mines (mainly in China) are unprofitable at current prices so, assuming normal economic theory (which may not apply in China!), many of these mines should shut, reducing supply and increasing prices over time.
Mark,
ReplyDeleteI find with a lot of these foreign stocks, you are better off looking at the numbers in their local currencies rather than trying to to do p/e etc. on the US listed ADR's.
For SONY, take a look at:
http://uk.reuters.com/business/quotes/financialHighlights?symbol=6758.T
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/6758:JP
BY the way, BALT chart looks like it may have bottommed.
ReplyDeleteI agree and also agree about the iron ore comments. Vale has 1.5% exposure to coal vs larger exposure for balt which is why at this time I prefer vale. Plus I like bigger cap companies now. I am only allocating 5% to this space though
DeleteBDI kinda stinks under 1000 here but BALT's chart did move out of that descending wedge. I guess there's a bet going the BDI won't remain this low.
DeleteTOF,
ReplyDeleteRe the internet stocks, if you can do, that's a great way to make money. I always have a tough time paying up for them, but sure would have been nice if I had paid up for GOOG, etc. Re YELP, it is down 50% from the highs but still up 300% from 18 months ago and the standard metrics don't say cheap, but if the growth is there, maybe this is as good as it gets.
Goog traded at 16x sales in its first year, at much higher levels of sales and lower gross margins. They were profitable though which is huge. I see yelp only at a 0.3% penetration of the entire local advertising space. And I think they're the undisputed leader but they will have tough competition. It will be a bumpy ride I'm sure with plenty of trading opportunities
DeleteAlso you could say it's up 75% in 26 months since ipo. Depends on the starting point you choose
DeleteMark SNE is a sum of parts story just like NOK was. Just look at com parables for each unit
ReplyDeleteI can't come up with a trade I like.
ReplyDeleteTry YELP?
DeleteI don't recommend it for a trade. Just a long term buy and hold
DeleteI intend on nibbling hopefully this is a partial bounce and I can get in $1ish lower.
DeleteWell it was up 19% from the lows through yesterdays highs so it could easily give back a lot. My cost is $55 on my initial entry. I would add more if it got down below $50.
DeleteBy the way, here's a good interview with the CEO on Charlie Rose from last year:
Deletehttp://www.hulu.com/watch/524717
FLWS - Out, $5.56
ReplyDeleteI thought Bill Miller made an excellent point yesterday about rates. He mentioned that there was talk of ECB doing negative rates and in that environment, a 2.5% "risk-free" yield looks very attractive.
ReplyDeleteI was this close to buying ENPH at $8.0X the other day. Probably a missed opportunity.
ReplyDeleteI like the way ENPH popped right back up instead of staying at yesterday's prices.
Delete2.5% risk free, he meant US T's I guess.
Yes US Ts are supposedly risk free. But regardless of that fact its the lowest risk investment out there and that could be an excellent explanation for the drop in rates despite what appears to be a slightly stronger US economy and Fed tapering.
DeleteGM - Just noticed the volume kicking in yesterday as the selling occurred. Was a good day to buy the FED-induced panic.
ReplyDeleteGM could actually be good for a trade here. Was 25% higher at the start of the year and does not seem to be going down on bad news. A lot of the value type guys are liking it, so appear to be buying into weakness which could provide a firm base.
DeleteThe risk is that there is more bad news coming, but you have to think it is all out now, but maybe not if the problems run deeper.
I'm more hoping for a double over the next year, but short term, could be a good time for a bounce.
DeleteI kind of agree with you. It depends in part on a growing market for cars in the near term but at these levels it appears that buying and holding the stock for the next 5 years should turn out to be a solid investment.
DeleteYELP - In at $56.55
ReplyDeleteYELP - Sure hope there's a stout mote, could FB blow this thing away if they wanted?
ReplyDeleteGood entry so far, good luck. I think there's a lot of talk about FB and GOOG killing them. Listen to that interview I posted above when you get a chance because he puts it perfectly...competition has a shit load of other stuff going on and aren't focused exclusively on local like YELP is and therefore, integrating it with the other services and the rest of the site may hurt customer satisfaction etc. GOOG has been at it for 9 years now and still YELP has grown revenues like 5,000% since then.
DeleteOne concern you could have is if the economy goes into the tank and advertising dollars go down. But they only have 75k businesses advertising with them right now which is about 0.3% of the addressable market. And some of their revenues come from the groupon like deals and just regular deals that businesses advertise on their page on the site...and those would probably increase if businesses are struggling to attract customers.
By the way, here's the grown in paying biz accounts that I've been tracking:
Delete74,000 - Q1 2014
67,000 - Q4 2013
57,000 - Q3 2013
51,400 - Q2 2013
45,000 - Q1 2013
39,800 - Q4 2012
35,500 - Q3 2012
32,000 - Q2 2012
27,300 - Q1 2012
My 200 share stake in ESTE is up 70% since I bought it and looks like its turning into a momo stock. I found it when I found STS back in 2012 because some poster on their board was in it and I liked it. They had a weird merger that I can't quite figure out but its such a small position that I'm not gonna waste time reading about it too much. Looks good.
ReplyDeleteI'm coming to the conclusion it's important to get in before big the run up.
DeleteWe're getting an car monitor from our insurance company to plug into our car which will qualify us for a 50% discount on our auto insurance policy. :)
ReplyDelete