Wednesday, May 21, 2014
6/21/14 Comet Cleaner...
Congratulations Kendra for being selected to represent Region 5.
Kendra was selected from the Player Development Program to play for Region 5 in a Tournament this past weekend. Her team won both games, a 4-3 win over Region 2 (East Bay) and a 2-1 win over Region 8 (Sacramento). She scored a goal in the first game and had an assist in the second game. Good job girl!
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Nice job!
ReplyDeleteHey BB - One thing about Tepper: I'm pretty damn sure he's never nervous about money.
If you really know the ropes the system doesn't work you, you work the system.
DeleteYeah, easy to be aggressive when you've got more than you'll ever spend. But he's playing for aplace in history. Like SAC Steve Cohn(?). Tepper seems like a regular guy, but a lot of them have surprising large egos.
ReplyDeleteGood going Kendra!
ReplyDeleteBut someone needs to have a discussion with whomever decided to call them "regions", this term must immediately be changed to "sector" or "section"
I'll bring that up the day AFTER Kendra is too old!
DeleteCalling them "Regions", may as well call them "Cell Block", LOL Aghhhh!
DeleteThe GTX Goldman Sachs Commodity Index performs a flash crash and quick recovery Monday. Main stream media and traders ignore the event since these flash events are becoming more and more common. At 1:34 PM EST, the GTX flash crashes from 5039 to 4718, 321 points, -6.4%, then flat lines sideways for one-half hour, then flash spikes higher back to 5039 at 2:06 PM, moving sideways into the commodities close.
ReplyDeleteYELP - Sold 1/3 @$59.20
ReplyDeleteGood God, lucky I didn't sell more.... Going straight back to $100 on it's way to $200?
DeleteGap up from $57.98 remains open.
DeleteIt's nice to own a stock someone is willing and able to buy.
DeleteLOL, what a turd piece of software... Doesn't show up as sold in my account yet, but it did sell.
DeleteNWLI - Looks like there aren't any sellers, same for CADC, volume = 0
ReplyDeleteI'm off to Mary land. today, scream at you guys later! :)
ReplyDeleteALDW - Is that dividend really 15%, need to check this out later.
ReplyDeleteYELP - Riddle for the day: Let's say it does run back to $100 and drops back from there into the $80's, that would make for a nice iH&S target of.$_______
ReplyDeleteIf any company has the potential to go from $57 to $200 I'd say it's YELP. Lots has to go right, of course.
DeleteSold my VALE at $13.3 this morning for a small loss.
ReplyDeleteLike a fool I actually bought some ENPH today at $8.7. I'm sick of watching that thing keep butting up against $8.8ish only to fall back down less and less. It's building up strength for a big move higher in my opinion. Obviously I should have bought at $7 but I see a lot of potential for this business. This time I have a much smaller position (about 5%) and am hoping to just ride out the swings. I'll look to double down on the next inevitable move below $8.
ReplyDeleteOUTR looks like its getting ready to push up to new all time highs again. i totally get the argument against the company and it probably ultimately will prove true. But I do think it's telling that a lot of people like my wife's sister, who is in her early 20's, and her friends all use Redbox. That's supposedly the tech savvy segment that would never use DVDs. I still think the viewing experience / ease of use is superior with DVDs.
ReplyDeleteBarring a smackdown tomorrow in YELP, which is certainly possible, it looks like I finally anticipated a move correctly. I was thinking last week that a lot of people were at the point of complete fear regarding the momentum names and that they were all hiding in the slow steady ones. This on the whole was probably going to continue; however, there would be a handful of names that would rise to the top because they were taken down unfairly. In my opinion, YELP is one of them only if you look at the share of the total addressable market that they have right now. We're talking 15 million or so small businesses in the US that spend somewhere around $100 Billion a year on local based advertising. Who knows what the market is overseas. By contrast, YELP had 74,000 paying businesses as of last quarter and a revenue run rate of around $300 to $320 Million annually.
ReplyDeleteI looked a lot at the addressable market for LNKD vs their current revenues and it paled in comparison. The data names in general have higher price to sales multiples and its much harder to pick a winner. In the internet space its nearly impossible to knock someone off the top rung of the ladder, even if you have insane amounts of money. Consumers prefer certain websites for their own reasons...otherwise people would go to Bing over Google because MSFT spent unGodly sums of money promoting it. They would use Apple iTunes Radio over Pandora because Apple spent frivolously on it. But that's just not the case. It's cooler to search on Google, to find airline tickets on Priceline, and to listen to radio on Pandora. Google is a threat to YELP, absolutely, but I just don't see Google Local becoming the de facto way of finding the perfect restaurant to fatten you up or to get a car mechanic that will rip you off slightly less than the next guy. It's just cool to use Yelp. Google Local is not cool.
That's my take at least.
(a) JCP off @ 8.95 (+4%).
ReplyDelete(b) TZA off @ 17.43 (-3.5%).
Overall, a very minor gain. There's no need to 'invent' trades, as Dave would say. Back to 100% cash and sidelined.
Was wondering if you still had JCP. nice trade. I'm eyeing a possible re-entry into TZA around $16.6 if it gets there.
DeleteWhich one is Kendra?
ReplyDeleteFor kicks. UGAZ @ 22.24. Very small position.
ReplyDeleteForgot to post. I actually bailed on the ENPH shortly after I opened it at a loss..around $8.67. I realized I was buying it after too big of a short term run. Will be looking to re-enter it soon though.
ReplyDeleteWhich probably means a buyout comes tomorrow.
Delete2nd- Back row 3rd from the right looking at it.
ReplyDeleteThe question now is obviously where to from here? The RUT couldn't get above the 200 DMA. It has been under it for the better part of a couple of weeks now. The nasdaq is butting up against a now downtrending 50 DMA. Seems to me that tomorrow and Tuesday are important days for the market. Any lack of follow through would be a negative. I still see a little more upside for the RUT to around 1,130ish which would be around the downtrending 50 DMA. Probably a good spot to buy TZA.
ReplyDeleteI agree. Pretty tough if there's no follow through.
DeleteInteresting:
ReplyDelete"We believe that easier access to credit and an economic recovery will eventually feed through to better earning; but for now, earnings of euro zone companies continue to disappoint. Of the 280 companies in the STOXX 600 Index reporting through May 7, 54% missed profit estimates in the first quarter, a sharp contrast to the 75% of S&P 500 Index companies beating earnings. Domestically-oriented companies have fared better, while exporters were hurt by currency issues such as declines in emerging market currencies and a strong euro.
On a cyclically adjusted price earnings (CAPE) basis, which adjusts for changes in the business cycle, euro zone stocks trade at a 40% discount to US equities. This is close to the largest difference in at least 30 years according to BCA Research, and suggests euro zone stocks could have room to rise if the economic recovery continues."
Starter position in WFM after hours @ 37.70.
ReplyDeleteMaybe it's just me, but things seem more positive now. Maybe we break out of this trading range we have been in this year to the upside in the next few days (talking S&P 500 and QQQ). Maybe IWM has bottomed for now as well.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure things really ever were negative, I suppose it's possible but man, there are so many people out there feeding their families and living their lives there's no way the economy is as bad as sound bites try to make it sound.
DeleteNWLI isn't looking good right now, perhaps b/c nobody believes rates will ever rise?Ben has been out there basically claiming rates won't lift until after he passes away, that should be good for YELP and the likes I'd think.
Maryland Trip Report: I see no signs of recession and boy am I glad I don't live in the DC metrosexual area any more, traffic is murder up there, especially trying to get out anytime after 3:00~7:30pm Took a break from sitting still and walked into a TGT about 6:00pm to discover the place empty, wouldn't expect someone would want to be out getting groceries in that mess but no stoppers-by seeking refuge from traffic?
ReplyDeleteWhere were you in Maryland?
DeleteDavidsonville, and Beltsville.
DeleteMy TGT stop was in Quantico, on the way home.
DeleteCP,
ReplyDeletehere's the way i look at NWLI:
You are paying $232 for $406 in assets + another $40 in hidden assets, so basically 50% of value. That $406 is growing by $27 per year in a weak interest rate environment. I've gone through their SEC filings and their statutory insurance filings and I see nothing to be concerned about with the way the company is being run.
You've got several things going for you here:
1. The stock is very cheap. Have the market P/E and around half the average financial p/b. Plus the value of your stock is going up by over 11% per year ($27 / $232) and price eventually follows value
2. If rates go up, earnings improve and the lifeco's get rerated higher, so a good catalyst. You actually see the lifeco's jump when rates rise. Warren Buffet is strongly against long term bonds as he expects rates to rise and he is very accurate in his long term calls, just not the timing of these. I would bet with Buffet on trends every time.
3. If rates stay steady, at some point people become comfortable with this and they also get rerated higher
4. If the market goes corrects, you've got good valuation support to protect you. NWLI actually got rerated higher during the financial crisis and one of the rating agencies said that NWLI would be AAA if they were larger, so their size keeps them at single A
5. You had a 50% return on the stock in 2013. That was a big move and it has been working off this overbought condition by consolidating sideways in 2014, but it is still in a strong uptrend since November, 2012.
Won't be as fast a move as YELP if you'd rather play stocks like that. My approach has generated returns of market + 10% for 14 years and NWLI is my second largest holding, so I like it a lot. But like we always talk about, you have to pick the right stocks for yourself.
Wholly cow, this thing doesn't trade. My chart seems messed up also..but you make a very compelling case. What price would you suggest an entry?
DeleteWhy don't they have a higher divy?
DeleteYeah, I guess I just got a little over concerned (panicky), gonna stick it out.
DeleteAs far as YELP goes, not only do I think it might grow enormously but I prefer buying pullbacks once the selling seems done as opposed to breakouts. I can imagine plenty of folks selling those recent lows were simply being taken advantage of by scare tactics.
DeleteThe guy running the show there just wants to run the business and grow the company. A number of fund guys have talked to him about increasing the dividend or buying back shares since they are so undervalued, but he has no interest. He's 78 years old and the fund guys say they've talked to other board members and they think they should do something, but can't at this time.
DeleteThe son of the company is the president and likely will become CEO in the (hopefully) not too distant future and he is constantly selling his options to generate income, so he will likely want to change things when he takes over.
A number of these insurance companies pay paltry dividends like WTM. Seems to be an industry thing and hurts the price in an era where people are looking for yield.
Every market cycle over the last 25 years, the stock has gotten above book value when the overall market is doing really well. It should do this again this time. But with the very slow recovery we are in, it may take several years to get there. I honestly thought we'd be there by now, but as long as the value keeps increasing, the final target keeps growing.
What price man!!
Delete$232 is a good price. I'd take the approach of buying 1/3 now and look to buy more on weakness. Got below $210 in February. I generally like to average into positions.
DeleteI really like NWLI. The spread and lack of liquidity makes it a buy and hold, not a trade. I think you will definitely make money holding it for a while.
DeleteBy the way, one good way to look at YELP is this: the US Directory Advertising business was a $14.5 Billion annual business in 2007 at its peak. A very large chunk of that will migrate online...I bet its well north of 50%. That alone presents a big opportunity for Yelp which will do about 2.5% of that total this year. And I would argue that given its ability to provide real time feedback to advertisers and to allow you to track your ad spend, the online local ad market opportunity will be much larger than $14.5 Billion...probably double that. YELP is becoming the Yellow pages + Opentable + Groupon all in one. Obviously the ability to capture the lions share of this migration is key and it's why YELP is spending the majority of its ridiculously high (93%) gross margins on advertising / sales people. I basically envision them allowing merchants the following:
*Easy management of their storefront on yelp
*Ability to offer promotions to attract new customers / bring old ones back (i.e., free appetizers with meal, 25% off oil lube, etc)
*Running ads on search results to get your company's name at the top of the search results page for your area (similar to Google)
*Upgrading your storefront to include video promotions, full menus, etc for additional fees
*Allowing customers to make reservations for a spa visit or for a table for 4 online (with YELP eventually taking a cut)
*Allowing customers to pay for reservations or promotions (tire change etc) online (with YELP taking a cut).
I love the hatred for the stock. People don't understand the model at all but Yelp in my opinion has the golden opportunity to make a killing in this space. Obviously I'm biased, but I know this space particularly well because I started a business in 1999 that focused on this exact business model only in the catering industry. My business grew pretty rapidly but I was just a kid in college at that time and I didn't know anything about fundraising or anything else that I should have pursued. Businesses were very receptive to me so long as I provided them with leads. YELP does that on a grand scale.
"A number of these insurance companies pay paltry dividends"
DeleteYeah, that's true I think. I had a friend that owned enough of one (or more?) to live well, off the dividends. I think it was a trust, actually.
" I had a friend that owned enough of one (or more?) to live well, off the dividends. "
DeleteThat's my goal CP!
23 May 2014 Baltic Dry Index (BDI) -2 964
ReplyDeleteBALT is killing it. That rising channel from last August continues to remain in place. The next upside target would be to the top of the channel, now around $8. Doesn't matter what the current spot rates are doing...BALT has massive leverage should rates only double from here. Very impressive. I'm quite sure I'll be looking back on this one in 3 or 4 years when it's at $30 and kicking myself.
DeleteNM back above $9.00. Up almost 20%from the lows.
DeleteWell I was forced to buy ENPH higher but I did get in at $8.77. It's clearly breaking out and heading higher in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteLooking to buy airplane leasing company FLY. Already have a position and looking to double it. They pay a 7.4% yield (but there is Irish witholding tax), are at 75% of understated book value, are growing this year and the market is growing. The knock against them and the reasons they are the cheapest is that they have older planes and and small compared to competitors. But, in my opinion, management is doing a good job of generating strong yields from their assets and pretty much every older plane they sell is above book value, so that is why I believe book value is understated. You are getting more interest in the sector with AIG's sale of their business to AER, and you could make the case AER is better based on the imbedded value of this purchase, but it has more than doubled since December, so hard to buy here.
ReplyDeleteFLY having a bounce today with the market. Maybe I can get in the low $13's?
I looked at that one previously. My concern was the amount of short term debt I believe last time I looked. Have they resolved that?
DeleteOK. Trying NWLI @ 232
ReplyDeletePIR is starting to look interesting again. It's been trading sideways for 2 years now. The balance sheet is pretty strong and valuation is much more reasonable. Trades at around 14-15 times this years earnings. They are still expanding their online operations which should add a little to the top line over time. Furniture is a tougher one to move online (really anything with chairs / mattresses / anything you have to sit in are tougher sells online) and they have a bit of a niche that they exploited in terms of their style of furnishings. I'd look to add more on any panic selloff. I doubt it comes though.
ReplyDeleteStill holding 1/2 of my DATE, which appears to have finally stabilized.
ReplyDeleteI'm still eyeing a move to 1,130 to 1,140 for Russell 2000 to buy TZA. That's the prior high from 5/12 and if you notice there have been a series of lower highs for 2 months that haven't broken. If the RUT has more downside then that area should be a good entry point for TZA.
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, it is at the top of its downtrending channel from March so it might be a good time to buy TZA here. If I was to guess very short term trading then I would think we close strong today and have a follow through pop on Monday that could bring us to the 1,130 to 1,140 level.
meant on Tuesday
DeleteSold a little more of DATE at $5.45
ReplyDeleteAlso sold the ENPH for a small gain at $8.82. Looking to free up some more cash for TZA potential trade.
ReplyDeleteAnd it's Banana Peel in the lead by a nose, for the home stretch! Can he pull a new track record????
ReplyDeleteSold out the rest of my DATE shares. Probably rips from here but I'd like to increase cash for a possible TZA trade around $16.5 or so.
ReplyDeleteFLWS - Friday or Monday always up, then down the following days.
ReplyDeleteI just realized the title of this post is Comet Cleaner. Who's running this show?
ReplyDeleteYou like that hun?!
DeleteThe AYSO team for which my son guest plays participated in the Davis Cup this weekend. We lost Game 1, tied Game 2, won Game 3, and lost Game 4.
ReplyDeleteHe didn't really 'show up' for Saturday's starter, appearing 'lost' and off his game. As a result, he played only two quarters. His performance in the second game was solid, but unexceptional. Saturday evening, the families all retired to a hotel pool in West Sacramento, where the boys had a blast swimming + playing barefoot soccer in the hotel courtyard. I've never seen him have so much fun. We were unable to pull him away until bedtime.
Sunday's weather was again in the nineties. Game 3 opponents were a highly-ranked South Bay View team with a tough coach who tried to tell a few of the opposing parents they needed to move to the other side of the field. No worries, dude. We stayed put, in the shade! The big guy played a fantastic game, which included 'juggling' the ball through five defenders for a nice goal. We shut them out, 4-0. He played well enough to 'start' Game 4, which we lost 2-0. Actually a close game, hotly contested and very physical.
Good to be back in the Bay Area, where it's a cool 65.
Nice bro. We had it easy this weekend. Only one local game!!
DeleteComet Cleaner is like Karma Cleanser, what goes around comes around, and around but never is really cleaned, right?
ReplyDeleteTSL - Another +30% upside maybe?
REDF - Holy Crap, did you guys see that?
ReplyDeleteI'm a vet, but I never had to do anything like this and why I dislike war which our politicians seem to like.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/john-kellys-marines-in-ramadi-2014-5?google_editors_picks=true
I dislike war for the purpose of lining fat-cat wallets too.
DeleteOne thing I can say is I do run into Navy guys all the time in Norfolk who would've most likely been dead or in prison had they not joined the military, where they lean discipline.
DeleteCIE - "26-May-14 05:00PM Paulson & Co. ups its stake in Cobalt International Energy Market Realist"
ReplyDeleteNWLI - Now that's more like it! :)
ReplyDeleteSpoke too soon...... Feels like someone wants to keep this thing down awhile longer.
DeleteYELP - Scream, holler, jump, shout
ReplyDeleteJAZZ - Wowsie!
PMs - There they go, straight down the crapper.
ReplyDeleteChina gold imports supposedly.
DeleteThere may be some truth to it, I've seen adds lately saying you can buy Chinese coins at less than spot. Knee-jerk - Thought they must be plated Franklin Mint rejects or something.
DeleteAlways the big smack downs come before open the first day of the week, like ~03:00am when supposedly volume is thin. Then the price never recovers.
DeleteHas silver reached y125 yet?
Kitco's chart sucks, it's showing silver at $19.78 I've noticed this before, where the Kitgo charts don't seem to be updating. Maybe my Kitgo app is picking up the wrong link b/c it's dated April 25th, LOL WAPOS!
DeleteYELP - You kick ass, girl! :)
ReplyDeleteMTW - Remember $7, then $9 ? Was hoping that Feb gap up might close.
ReplyDeleteUPS - Man shipping stuff sure has gotten expensive, these guys are getting paid for their work. This has to be a tailwind for box stores.
VAR - I hear Varian's 3-D breast high-res breast imaging system is now fully qualified at our hospital of choice. They were working on this system over 10yrs ago.
Would think getting UPS or FDX at a good price would be smart given the move to buying more stuff on the web and needing to get it shipped.
DeleteWow what a day. Only holding a large position in YELP right now. Waiting for a reversal to consider TZA. Otherwise I'm not touching it right now. Hope you guys had a good holiday weekend.
ReplyDeleteLot of green on the screen today. To me it feels like we are starting to break out of the congestion we have been in pretty much all year. But could also be a top and TZA is right. I always worry when I feel good about the market. But I'm not feeling super great about things, so think we are OK for an up-move still.
DeleteTough to trade a near term reversal when I see a potential 5 bagger in YELP over the next few years. Holding it through is the key as its not cheap by any metric other than relative to its peers.
DeleteLong TZA at $16.1 just seems right to me. A false breakout above highs from 2 weeks ago, only to come barreling down again.
ReplyDeleteAll of the econ reports today were really strong:
ReplyDeletehttp://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3063-economicCalendar.html
That must be it, sure felt like this is a good news response. PMs cratered before the news? Can't tell by looking at my Kitgo app b/c the chart is from April 25th, LOL
DeleteRegret having sold 1/3 of YELP but it's still contributing heavily to my portfolio. Maybe I should buy it back.
Nice entry on the TZA so far, hope it works out.....
Also,I think people see Europe getting better and Draghi looking to boost the economy.
DeleteThe other thing to keep an eye on is interest rates. If they start to rise, the financials (including life insurers should do well). Been looking at some US regional banks, but I seems to be getting overwhelmed into inaction as there is too much choice.
DeleteBig move for BAC, the bull flag is fruiting. This big-bad bank will not be allowed to fail despite WS despises the boys from NC eating their grass. Unless of course WS has taken it over then no telling what might happen.
DeleteI don't see how insurance co's can avoid capital losses if they're already long T's and rates rise?
DeleteThe way insurers work is they generally hold bonds to the end of their term, so capitals gains/losses don't matter and aren't reflected in income unless they are deemed not temporary. They will usually have a smaller trading type portfolio that is marked to market, but that is usually quite small.
DeleteWhen you read an insurance company's statements, they talk about AOCI (additional other comprehensive income). This is the account where capital gains and losses are reflected, similar to the way foreign exchange gains/losses on debt are shown. When evaluating an insurance company, most people look at their info ex-AOCI. NWLI is one of the rare ones that does not include AOCI in book value and instead uses amortized cost which is a more conservative approach.
The advantage for insurance companies is they have many bonds mature each year. If rates go up, they can be reinvested for higher rates of return, thereby increasing their ROI's and ROE's. Because the capital gains were never included in income, the offsetting capital losses will not be either. Just the AOCI will be adjusted.
Good point and thanks for pointing that out b/c it slipped my mind, of course they hold to maturity.
DeleteI would think also, insurance companies could roll their assets to later dated contracts if those contracts were already over compensated?
DeleteBALT - Forming a cup?
ReplyDeleteCIE - Mr. Toad's Wild Ride with Paulson.
ReplyDeleteDUST - Ashes to ashes, DUST or bust!
ReplyDelete"Apple working on home automation software platform"
ReplyDeleteThe return of the Apple House? I know a guy who's been long AAPL more than a few years, based on this idea.
http://books.google.com/books/about/The_Apple_House.html?id=1leLQgAACAAJ
I don't know. I suspect people will like it, but just seems it will make people lazier if they don't even have to get up off the couch to turn the lights down. Sometimes these labour saving devices are not good for the general population!
DeleteJohn Blankenship is a great thinker, he also wrote a book about raising children:
Deletehttp://books.google.com/books?id=5-qnngEACAAJ&dq=inauthor:%22John+Blankenship%22&hl=en&sa=X&ei=YsyEU66nHYjQsAT994FQ&ved=0CHEQ6AEwCg
The Apple house will improve energy efficiency and perform mundane tasks so you'll have more time remaining to devote towards your 5 hour commute, assuming of course your job actually requires your presence for manual labor.
From Saut this week http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm :
ReplyDelete"There were far too many other topics discussed in the Q&A to relate in this report, but the overriding theme was that we are in a secular bull market."
"Also arguing for a downside attempt early this week is the very short-term internal energy indicator, which became exhausted last week. The longer-term internal energy indicator, however, still has oodles of energy, so any weakness should be contained."
CP - Sorry I didn't go long TZA...should have. I'm waiting for a bit of a double top first in the Russell. I'm thinking today's top and maybe we get another slightly higher top tomorrow before giving way to more selling? who knows. I don't know if I will play it.
ReplyDeleteInertia of course means it will work.
DeleteI'm more interested in DUST, should've picked up a ton as retribution for getting crushed by SVM.
DeleteI dunno man... I think I feel the gravitational pull of a tidal wave forming, might be better off to wait and see which beach it crashes on. Interesting times for sure, it's tough navigating these waters.
DeleteProlific Technologies Semiconductor - Can't locate a ticker for these guys but they make interface chips. Burr Brown does too, chips to convert analog measurements to binary and hex both ways, and NATI makes configurable interface software, whatever happened to Blackberry's Aduino, TI is a big interface chip house too.
ReplyDeleteA microcontroller for every toaster, LOL, remember the apple flying toaster screen saver?
I guess the point to remember is none of this is new, the ideas(dream) has been around for ages. Imagine, your very own Rosie the robot fetching you beer and chips?
DeleteUp to now, these interface chips have made automobiles what they are today, so there's some idea of how they bring about efficiency. But wait, these devices are also responsible for factory automation, robotics that improves quality by nature including in-situ QI on the production line.
NWLI - The long awaited firing of hydrazine-fueled booster rockets....
ReplyDelete(a) When they slaughter the miners, they take no prisoners! GDX (majors) -3.7%, GDXJ (juniors) -5.1%, SLW (Silver Wheaton) -3.4%, GG (Goldcorp) -3.8%.
ReplyDelete(b) RSX (Russia) off -2.2%.
(c) Small position in RYIRX (Rydex 2x Inverse Russell 2000) @ the 1030 am window.
(d) Small position in HDGE @ 12.37.
Watching a bit of CNBC making dinner and pretty much everyone was in agreement that you should not buy now. "wait will the summer's over", "wait for a pullback", "wait for things to improve".
ReplyDeleteLikely means it actually is a good time to buy.
Interesting I would have thought they would be bullish prob means stocks like yelp etc trade to new highs by the fall
DeleteYeah, maybe we get a summer rally to get everyone bullish, then a mini-crash in the fall to mess up all the latecomers.
DeleteGotta love the persistent downtrend.
DeletePersistent downtrend?
DeleteSarcasm, my friend! :)
DeleteLaszlo Birinyi still positive on the market. Nothing reallly new, but a good read.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CC4QqQIwAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2014%2F05%2F25%2Fbusiness%2Fmaybe-theres-life-in-the-old-bull-market-yet.html&ei=VTaFU_jzH4ilyATyooDoBA&usg=AFQjCNHj4cpuogtuN_GqxqmSkVO7cD7zxQ&sig2=juZCv4aAK8uXFkj9bSxpew&bvm=bv.67720277,d.aWw
Hey Mark - Just wanted to point a few things out about Yelp after our conversation which should give you a sense of what they could grow into:
ReplyDeleteUS spending on print Yellow Pages ads @ peak = $14.2 Billion (source: http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10000872396390443713704577603664132874638) at 2005
My assumption is this total spend grew at 2.5% annually since then so the theoretical spending would be around $20.6 Billion next year. I think at least 66% of this will go online by 2020. As a leader, I think YELP should be able to grab 40% of that. So $5.4 Billion.
The international opportunity, from what I've read, is around the same as the US. Let's say its another $14 Billion and YELP gets 10% of that. So $1.4 Billion.
There are other revenue opportunities, including groupon like coupons (GRPN estimated to do $3.2 Billion in sales this year) and reservations for restaurants, spas, etc. OPEN is est to do $220 Million in revs this year. Let's assume they grab 20% of both markets. That's another $700 Million.
So total you're looking at $7.5 Billion. I actually think the market opportunity is even larger as several studies have shown incredibly high conversion rates amongst people on YELP. See the following:
http://screenwerk.com/2013/06/25/nielsen-study-says-89-of-yelpers-buy-within-a-week-of-site-visit/
I think the addressable market opportunity is probably double the above. And there's a chance I'm conservative on the market share YELP attains as market leaders in search businesses tend to garner greater than 60% in each market and the local search market is a market just like the desktop search market. But let's say its $7.5 Billion and they attain 20% operating margins (internet biz models tend to sport very high margins) then that would yield a $1.5 Billion bottom line. I think at some point it would trade at 30 to 40X this. So $45 Billion to $60 Billion market cap at maturity within 5 years is possible in my opinion. No guarantee of course but I think YELP has an excellent opportunity here.
I made a typo...meant it would have been $20.6 Billion in US spending on print Yellow Pages ads by 2020 not next year....I'm just extrapolating that to give a sense of what local businesses would have spent on that type of advertising. Those dollars are moving somewhere and my assumption is it's going online and to the place with the best conversion rate and largest user base...ie., yelp.
DeleteIf it's going to take a few years for YELP to reach $200, I'd better own more of it.
DeleteNLS - Ouch.
ReplyDeleteSPEX - ?
ReplyDeleteYeah I'm all in from $1.30. Ain't no thang.
DeleteFrom Landry:
ReplyDelete"The Ps (S&P 500) had a great day, gaining over ½%. They not only closed at all-time highs but exceeded all previous highs."
Wouldn't all time highs naturally exceed all previous highs? Or is this some sort of superior use of the english language I don't know about?
Sorta like a run-on sentence, LOL.
Delete"Industrial Machinery: Europe registrations starting to fall – ACEA heavy truck data
ReplyDeleteMay 28,
2014 09:19 AM ET - While the US truck market continues to be strong, the truck environment outside the US appears uninspiring. In April, demand for new heavy truck unit registrations declined 1% in Europe, a notable stepdown from the 13% increase in Q1. Weak order patterns in Europe (Q114 Daimler -17%, Volvo -26%) suggest that registrations should continue to trend lower."
Cementos - Isn't this a type of candy?
ReplyDelete"Cementos Pacasmayo: Initiating with a Buy - a play on Peru construction
May 28,
2014 10:38 AM ET
We initiate Pacasmayo, Peru's second largest cement producer, with a Buy rating based on an EV/EBITDA based (PO) of PEN 5.81. We like CPAC for (1) its exposure to Peruvian cement market; (2) startup of new cement in plant, and (3) phosphate mining . PO based on a target 2015 EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.1x, 10% discount to its 2yr avg."
Here's a list of Peruvian stocks I was able to dig up:
SNNGF PERUVIAN PRECIOUS METALS CORP Stock
IFHZF INTERCOP PERU LTD Stock
INRPZ INRETAIL PERU CORPORATION 144A Stock
PPAAF PT PERUSAHAAN GAS Stock
PPAAY PT PERUSAHAAN GAS NEGARA ADR
PPLFY PT PERUSAHAAN PERKEBUNAN LONDO ADR
SCBLF SCOTIABANK PERU SAA LIMA Stock
Never mind about this list, it sucks. ETF has run back to resistance.
DeleteBAP - This one has run back up as well, financials always lead the way, right?
AGO - Aren't these guys operating down there, nice triangle forming.
EPAM - Wow man, this thing bolted right back up.
ReplyDeleteNWLI - I dunno but this one sure looks like it might be ready for some impressive upside.
ReplyDeleteHII - Downgraded by BACML, must be about to make a run higher.
ReplyDelete5% of global population lives in the US, so what happens if a global demand for most everything begins to rally?
ReplyDeleteCPAC - That's Cementos Peru
ReplyDeleteTBT sure is tempting here. Hard to see interest rates going lower unless the economy tanks. The thing that keeps me away is adding risk because if the economy does tank, in which case I'd take hit both on my stocks and the TBT position.
ReplyDeleteI really think this has to do with the upcoming ECB meeting. I think a lot of people are getting ahead of potentially negative rates which is the rumor.
DeleteMakes a lot of sense. The the ECB meeting might be a sell the news event and mark the yield low / bond high. I believe that happenned a couple of years ago, but can;t recall the exact situation.
Deletei think it's a really good trading opp
Delete(a) RYIRX off at the 1030 est window for a +1.43% gain.
ReplyDelete(b) Opened small positions in SLW (Silver Wheaton) @ 20.20 and GG (Goldcorp) @ 23.16. Both positions slightly in the red right now.
(c) Emerging Markets sold off -1% yesterday, but recovering all of its losses today (albeit on lower volume). I prefer for a sustained pullback before taking another position.
(d) HDGE up slightly (+.32%). I'm really not too concerned about this position. It's more of a 'place setter' in the event the markets experience a sharp plunge or a sustained decline this summer. The odds of either will increase the longer US indexes continue to rally without a 'significant' pullback.
Reopening a position @ 38. I'll do my best to entertain a longer term hold, but likely to sell into any short term spikes
ReplyDeleteIn what?
DeleteWFM. We should start a 'Name That Tune' theme.
Delete(a) 38. WFM.
(b) 8.60. JCP.
Its funny how wide of a range of expressions a newborn has in the matter of minutes. It never gets old, even with the 2nd one.
ReplyDeleteTBT - New low, hard to believe NWLI should rally under these conditions?
ReplyDeleteTBT - This is probably a T short squeeze so rates may drop further than we might imagine before lifting but it's really tempting to begin shorting T's here. These low rates also help to keep equities moving up and it SHOULD be helping PMs but probably PMs are anticipating a reversal of rates perhaps.
ReplyDeleteAlright. Enough 'Comet Cleaner. New post.
ReplyDelete