Thursday, July 17, 2014

7/17/14 Lack of Faith

The market often punishes unyielding conviction, but it also punishes lack of faith in one's sixth sense.

(a) I almost posted 'We crash tomorrow last night.'  (Really.)  It was a just a fleeting thought, and I brushed it off.
(b) This morning I scanned through my watch list.  Noticed the bid/ask on VXX @ 27.88/27.90, and kicked myself in passing for not opening a position @ 27.2x on Wednesday.  I never chase, and set it aside.  Maybe an hour later, the pre-market ask hit 27.60, which prompted a half position.  I added the second half after the open @ 27.44, watched the position rally to 28.50 and held steady.  Why?  Another fleeting thought re a plunge in the US indexes.  Unfortunately, we experienced a head fake first, which sent VXX plunging instead.  I exited at 27.96, then patted myself on the back as prices continued south to 27.30.

We all know the rest of the story.  (30-f---ing-54?)

Well, ---- that.  It's water under the bridge.

(a) Picked up a small position in RYWYX at the close (15.10).
(b) After hours, opened another small position in RSX @ 24.50 (-8% from yesterday's close).  If strapping a rocket to my Camry can send markets in Russia down -8%, it's an overreaction.

Side note: ATACX closed down -2.42% for the day, sending what was a +7% YTD gain on June 30 into red territory!  Looks like Michael and Charlie have more explaining to do this Sunday.

40 comments:

  1. We should do the opposite of Michael & Charlie, LOL.........
    WTF happened to RSX, I live on Mars.

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  2. shanghai and taiwan both up.

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  3. QIWI - Look at this chart and it's pretty obvious this one was at risk despite whatever's going on in Russia. Too much of a coincidence.

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    Replies
    1. I'm always surprised at how the market values all of these internet plays:
      QIWI and YNDX both have slower growth and are of course based in Russia and yet they trade at a 70% premium to a company like LEJU. All 3 are in the internet space and LEJU has arguably a much larger opportunity ahead of itself.

      I've been looking at a lot of these overseas markets and man they sure seem to have a lot of room to the upside. I listened to some guy talk about how the US market is overvalued because Warren Buffetts favorite valuation metric (total market value vs GDP) is at the higher end of what its been at over past 30 years. I think the only issue with this is the market gets a much larger bulk of profits from overseas versus 15 years ago.

      Delete
    2. http://philosophicaleconomics.wordpress.com/

      If you haven't seen this, this guy does a really good job in describing how things are changing. Lots of economics, but worth working through it in my opinion.

      Delete
  4. (a) RSX closed @ 25.08 (+2.4% from yesterday's 24.50 buy in the extended hours session).
    (b) Scaling into VXX @ 28.95 pre-market.

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  5. Replies
    1. Saw a headline a week ago saying China is halting smart phone subsidies, thought these might jump on the news?

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  6. SNTA- Don't know anything about it but an interesting level here.

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  7. BDI - Might be flattening out here, wish we could get volume.

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  8. Looks like the ZOO is closed.

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  9. Shouldn't I wait to buy something overseas AFTER the dollar has rallied as opposed to before? That would be the point where the foreign currency would have already dropped in relation to the dollar.

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  10. BXE - Here comes our morning seller, BATTER UP!

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  11. Early indications in Emerging Markets are that my position in RYWYX will move against me (EEM currently trading +1%, which implies a -2% move for RYWYX). So I was dead wrong in betting on further declines overnight. My back stop (a very small position size) provides the flexibility to stand or add here- prudence has its rewards. Rule #1 (take losses immediately) notwithstanding, I plan to give the position more room to play out.

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    Replies
    1. (a) It now looks like I should have taken the 1030 am hit on RYWYX (which clocked in at -3.19%). But the day's still young.
      (b) Stopped out of VXX @ 28.60 (ie, the exact price which marked a 'give back' on Thursday's VXX gains, so the two trades cancel out). Live by the sword, die by the sword.

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  12. BOIL - What time does the Old Faithful geyser show begin?

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  13. GEVO - $0.02 on this puppy and you're up 3%

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  14. I entered a fairly large position in SPWR at market right at the open because I knew I wouldn't have much time to look at anything this morning. The little one had a rough night sleep and her brother was all fired up for whatever reason. Looks like I got filled at $37.72. Not horrible but regret not opening a position last night. SUNE's yieldco IPO went off today. Symbol is TERP and its going to juice these suckas

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  15. "PEIX - Closing in on $20"

    CP - Have you seen corn lately? Down from 522 to 378 in pretty much a straight line. This is really bullish for PEIX. $27 is the next stop.

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    Replies
    1. No way, I thought corn might crash but haven't been watching!

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  16. Replies
    1. Funny how not panicking actually works huh?!

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  17. BC - Are boat sales off course, or is a 2nd wind coming this summer?

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  18. Did you see the SID move yesterday? I noticed it last night after close while snooping around.

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  19. wow what a great buying opp

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  20. http://seekingalpha.com/article/2314995-a-true-opportunity-with-trupanion-ipo
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2321965-ipo-preview-trupanion

    I like this IPO

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  21. Interesting article
    http://m.us.wsj.com/articles/BL-234B-5148

    ReplyDelete