Friday, May 14, 2010
5/14/10 Ramble On
Leaves are falling all around, it's time I was on my way.
Thanks to you, I'm much obliged for such a pleasant stay.
But now it's time for me to go. The autumn moon lights my way.
For now I smell the rain, and with it pain, and it's headed my way.
Sometimes I grow so tired, but I know I've got one thing I got to do...
*Ramble On, And now's the time, the time is now, to sing my song.
I'm goin' 'round the world, I got to find my girl, on my way.
I've been this way ten years to the day, Ramble On,
Gotta find the queen of all my dreams.
So the indexes sold off today. Did I really give away my TZA at yesterday's low of 5.52?
Yes.
Out of VXX/ERY/FAZ yesterday also at 24.06/9.79/12.33?
No lie.
I'm floating in blogger purgatory, seeking a place of rest for my tortured soul...
Ramble on...
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Ramble On/ The Good, The Bad, and newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4415 comments) on Fri, 05/14/2010 - 19:27 #63018
ReplyDeleteThe Ugly (committed to sharing all of it)-
So the indexes sold off today. Did I really give away my TZA at yesterday's low of 5.52?
Yes.
Out of VXX/ERY/FAZ yesterday also at 24.06/9.79/12.33 (albeit for minor gains)?
No lie.
I'm floating in blogger purgatory, seeking a place of rest for my tortured soul...
Ramble on...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a3HemKGDavw
Brother David- I confess my sins. I ----ing let my emotions take down my superego. The id was free to roam, stripping me of TZA at the very moment I should have added.
ReplyDeleteIt's an embarrassment that must be publicly flaunted, lest I'm ever tempted to pull that ---- again.
I surrender the right to any Nadurra for the rest of the month.
Don't feel too bad. I make that mistake, too, if I'm long in a panic and don't look at my chart before clicking the sell button.
ReplyDeleteAnd it is torture. Torture designed specifically to take those nasty shares off your hands so they can't damage your account balance any more.
I KEPT my $1039 today. 4 wins, 0 losses. Forget about those opportunities. They all go sour before you get to taste them anyway.
Brother shark- It's time to break out the hashish. I need more than a joint to float my transgressions into oblivion.
ReplyDeleteThank you.
Bob- I need a decent amount of time to feel sorry for myself before I take the high road, man.
ReplyDeleteYou know, I 'turned off the market' most of the day. Then I 'allow' myself to click on market quotes right when the DJIA is down -245.
ReplyDeleteMight as well be pouring water out of the masochist's teapot.
http://www.google.com/images?hl=en&rlz=1T4ADBF_enUS330US330&q=masochist's+teapot+photo&um=1&ie=UTF-8&source=univ&ei=j9_tS46UBYaYsgPar6nADw&sa=X&oi=image_result_group&ct=title&resnum=1&ved=0CCgQsAQwAA
ReplyDeleteWait- I found the perfect song:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_P-v1BVQn8
No, wait- I found a better one:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=59BZxgohr9g&feature=related
Those freaking haircuts, man...it has to be the hash, right?
ReplyDeleteOK, that's enough!
ReplyDeleteYou're right, Bob. A missed opportunity is one hell of a lot better than a loss.
Black Monday. Now that would really be something.
ReplyDeleteI would give up all 'rights' to any gains from a -20% gap down on Monday in exchange for the opportunity to play the long side...
2nd - I don't know what to say except yesterday's hurdle was the 50DMA, which failed.
ReplyDeleteThis is the song...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMSU4Bx9-pk&feature=related
Back in January I finally caved and took some pretty big losses on the short side...and went long. I'm pretty sure I bought AA with in .02 of what is still the top, UCO when crude was @ 85 the first time. Well, of course, that was when the market corrected the next day, and I added on the way down until I caved again.
ReplyDeleteSince then I have recovered all of those losses and quite a bit more. The market is @ 1130 and I have a pile of cash.
Have some Nadurra :)
BTW- Even though I'm long SD/PXP/AONE I'd gladly accept a 20 crash for the opportunity it would provide.
Bob- Well, I like the haircut a lot more...
ReplyDeleteTed Nugent!!?? You crack me up Cheapy :)
ReplyDeleteYo RoBear!! Did you play this at all?
ReplyDeleteHash is nice. I think what we need though, is a big bag of mushrooms, some of this here sour diesel, a case of red wine (I'm drinking Appleton's V/X rum tomight but I really prefer great wine), a kicking stereo, and all of our blog friends here to make the party complete!
ReplyDeleteAnd the buffet? Swedish meatballs!
You freaking traitor! What happened to Chinese?
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of Chinese...does anyone know of a real good cookbook? I've always wanted to learn, and am willing to install a 120K btu burner to do it right.
ReplyDeleteHey, Cheapy has his monitors...I like cooking :)
Choice of song shows my age and attitude, I guess...
ReplyDeleteI hate losing, too. It really gripes my butt when my 20,000 exit gets a print 30 seconds before the bottom is hit.
I made Chinese for dinner...
ReplyDeleteA tangerine/grapefruit beef and veg stir fry and veggie fried rice.
Why not get video instead of a book or in addition to? I like America's Test Kitchen / Cook's Country. Its avail on video or book or combined, and the nice thing about their stuff is they try it 42 ways to sunday, and explain why what worked best with the recipe. They tesy all kinds of recipes, and I've never had one turn out bad done their way.
I'll check it out, thanks Cheapy. How do you get the wok hot enough?
ReplyDeleteAny gas burner should get the wok hot enough. My wife has even managed with flat pans on electric ranges.
ReplyDelete2nd,
ReplyDeleteI too am only up a small amount YTD and that is largely owed to a bot GLD @114.5 and sold @121 yesterday. Looking for a lower buying opportunity on gold. Not a gold bug under normal circumstances but the times are extraordinary.
illini- It would almost be better if I had a loss YTD, but was able to follow through with my 'calls.'
ReplyDeleteWhat started out as a half-joke is edging closer to reality- I should stick to making 'pronouncements,' and let someone handle the trading ;)
Does she have any cookbook's she likes?
ReplyDeleteHey illini!
No cookbooks. She learned it all from her Mom.
ReplyDeleteIf anyone is interested, I highly recommend Bradley Ogden's "Breakfast, Lunch, Dinner." Not for the beginner, but very good.
ReplyDelete2nd- I was afraid of that. Same as my mom, and she is a excellent cook.
ReplyDeletegas range is good enuf. use high heat oil, get it to almost smoking, and then don't put too much stuff in it at a time. just cook a bit and move it to a plate, and cook some more.
ReplyDeletemost of our 20 or 30 cookbooks don't get used anymore except the ATK one which I use a lot. the problem is you dont want to waste effort and food on things that might not really turn out good.
ReplyDeletethe recipes I cook all the time are on notecards having been tweaked over time to where they are just right. cooking anything different is always an adventure, which is why i like explanations of WHY trying this or that worked or didn't. most cookbooks don't go into the WHY's of things that are in the recipe, let alone the WHY of the things not used that other similar recipes had.
SLW
ReplyDeleteTake a look at this chart as a technical trade off of S2 today.
http://www.screencast.com/t/MjVhYTI0MGEt
Am I the only one here that likes to use S/R/PP's? Yes, it's hand picked for the beauty of it, but pick any stock you like and I'll post a chart. No etf's.
Cheapy- Even though I can't trade like you do, I'd love to here the basics of your system.
ReplyDelete2nd,
ReplyDeleteMaybe 20% is not enough. you have to wait until there is blood in the streets.
Peace Frog,
Blood in the streets in the town of New Haven
Blood stains the roofs and the palm trees of Venice
Blood in my love in the terrible summer
Bloody red sun of Phantastic L.A.
Blood screams her brain as they chop off her fingers
Blood will be born in the birth of a nation
Blood is the rose of mysterious union
There's blood in the streets, it's up to my ankles
Blood in the streets, it's up to my knee
Blood in the streets in the town of Chicago
Blood on the rise, it's following me
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KRJKOtM-onM&feature=related
Yeah, I like that. Both the song and the scenario.
ReplyDeleteIts really nothing fancy... Watch a bunch of screens, each with 1 security, 8 different timeframes, 3 indicators on each, and wait till 2/3 have bottomed or topped in a timeframe, then enter or exit
ReplyDelete2nd - I forgot how good that song is. Lyrics are great to read.
ReplyDeletea 20% haircut would be all too wonderful...i'm 100% cash and would gobble up everything across the board.
i put my biz up for sale this week, though, and if past is prologue to the future, we might just have a crash. i put my business up for sale in September of 2008, had someone about to put a bid on it in October only to watch the market crash and he pulled his bid and came in with an offer 50% of the asking price.
cheapy - man that little cocoon of yours must make you dizzy, no? i'm experiencing sizable head pains from looking at 2 computers all day...
ReplyDeleteI'm having trouble concentrating on one monitor. Maybe it's my age. Like to take a break and come back to see if things are going well.
ReplyDeleteMaybe I'm not ever going to be a good trader, because all I can think about if we have a 20% correction from here is:
ReplyDeleteThe pain that will cause people close to me.
The extra pressure that will put on retirement programs like CALPERS
The additional loss of more jobs.
The further burden that would put on my kids.
"not ever"...yikes :(
ReplyDeleteWe are not better off in Illinois. A crisis is coming. (Already here?)
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure if it was posted here, but do you guys remember the article about the next great bull market? I remember the line that "once we bottom for the second time, go all in on margin and max out your credit cards to buy stocks".
ReplyDeleteIt was a very well thought out article.
I've got a huge cast iron WOK with a flat bottom that sits perfectly on my electric burner, found it in one of those Chinese grocery stores in San Jose over 10~15 years ago.
ReplyDeleteThis thing weighs an absolute ton, you'll sprain your wrist if you try handling it with one hand...
TOF, not dizzy, but certainly succeptible it info overload.
ReplyDeleteI think the key is to identify just one trade, then watch it like a hawk every second, till its closed for loss or gain.
I admit my systems are in a constant state of flux almost, always adding more charts, data, and indicators, or replacing ones after a bad trade. I do feel its getting better, but by the time I get it really down pat, you watch, they'll implement taxes that kill the goose, and not just MY goose, but all the geese, because when I pull my money because there is no longer a trade I can expect to profit from, net of tax, there will be many others with the same problem, and it will cause a huge vacuum of liquidity when we abandon the casino.
Jose
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYNIKL5n-y4&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwSZvHqf9qM&feature=channel
ReplyDelete"So the indexes sold off today. Did I really give away my TZA at yesterday's low of 5.52?
ReplyDeleteYes."
2nd_ave, there was no way for you to know the future. You did the right thing by following the strategy that allowed you to avoid ANY serious losses over the last year. Avoiding losses is supremely important, and you know that. Have some Nadurra, man. :)
No need to abandon the market until Dow hits 8500 -- take a break for a couple of days, like TOF did, and then come back and kick some ass!
Gotta find a way to survive the choppy ride...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0JrV86EKCs&feature=related
T3D- I think you were the one that posted the article I'm talking about. Ex- Neuberger guy now in Sweden??
ReplyDeleteDavid- Thanks. But here's the thing. I did sorta 'know' the future in this case. I posted it. I posted the expectation of a 'delayed' onset. I held TZA overnight. I held through opening strength on Thursday. I had a strong sense I should have been adding instead of exiting when I sold.
ReplyDeleteIn other words- in spite of all my comments about fading my own emotions, I STILL gave it up. I got played. Maybe even by myself.
The only thing that 'helps' this morning is the 'lost opportunity beats a loss any time' mantra. But not much.
Just a random thought. One of the reasons I've continued to play the long side, it's been the "easier" trade for the past year. And historically it always is. Perhaps we are entering short period of time where the "easier" trade is to be short.
ReplyDeleteTo keep things in perspective though, anyone who bought the SPY at the close last Friday is UP right now 1.5%.
Looking forward to a great day of soccer with the kids :))
As long as you haven't lost your capital, the 1000 stocks/etf's worth trading will still be there again on Monday.
ReplyDeleteIf you do not bet you cannot win. If you lose all your chips you cannot bet.
ReplyDeleteYeah, 2nd, great intuition it's just a fine line in timing between success and failure and how we get to the goal line. If trading was easy everyone would do it.
Mark, Sweden, not me that's Sharkie's gig.
Going off for a Nantucket Sleighride, later.
I feel pretty much like 2nd. It hurts more to have it right have a plan for the contingencies and at that most crucial moment not following through on that plan. It is a much easier pill to swallow just to be wrong, take your lumps and go home. I also choked at the most crucial time. I waited patiently for months. Predicted the change. Had a great entry. I was suppose to put on a position trade for a few weeks to a few months. I took big positions for me in VXX and SCO right at the beginning of the month. I was in VXX at below 20 and oil was at 86 a barrel. I am telling myself this is not a day trade and don't be shaken out. Don' sell too soon and don't get shaken out. Don' sell too soon and don't get shaken out. Don' sell too soon and don't get shaken out. Don' sell too soon and don't get shaken out. THEN OF COARSE THE VERY VOLATILITY THAT I PREDICTED. The whole catalyst for my trade. Causes me to sell too soon (VXX) and get shaken out (sco). After a lot of self analysis on this I realized that for myself my problem is I am trying to be three different traders in one. At this time I don't have the ability to be a scalper, swing trader and position trader all in one. My risk tolerance goes to the lowest common denominator. Day trading. It is impossible to be an effective position trader with the risk tolerance of a day trader. Of coarse I do forgive myself because we are in a historic phase in this market as far as price swings. We went from "wow the market went up a whole 60 points today." To "Gee wiz it was a slow day the market is only down 150." Things I am going to work on for my trading will be to try to compartmentalize my trades into the right categories and learn to quickly transition emotionally from a low volatility environment to a high volatility environment. Next time I might not leave so much money on the table.
ReplyDeleteRobear
From TK's post this morning:
ReplyDelete"My big picture is calling for a fall of nearly 25% from peak levels by the end of July. I'm really going out on a limb by even suggesting this, because a fall of 25% from the peak would obviously be earth-shaking. But the fact is that my big picture is still quite intact, and that's the next stage."
So true robear. Same problems here, and so given that long term I've been wrong, Wrong and WRONG, I've just been trying to play the tiny bits because the shorter the time frame, the better guess my indicators give. And I haven't been getting greedy, qty or movement wise. Take $300 here, $500 there, Loses $100 or $200, and try again when the indicators say my odds are good.
ReplyDeleteMaybe I should take 1 account, move it to "long term" short bias, and just not sign onto it till things blow up again.
LOL, what a crazy game playing against confetti money...
2nd, what/where "TK" post are you referring to?
ReplyDeleteBob-
ReplyDeletewww.slopeofhope.com
2nd - I think the 25% down is a pretty reasonable guess. that's close to what I'm targeting: 1,000 on the downside with the most likely possibility that it breaks that barrier and fools the last longs into selling at a time when they should be buying. So if thats the case then 950 is a likely buy in point.
ReplyDeleteI think people will slowly come to the conclusion that the market won't earn $95/share in 2011 (more like $75) and they will assign a 13 multiple to it. I think this will happen over the next few months.
But as long as we're above the 200 DMA we need to be careful about shorting...I think we should be looking to short only on strength. We're currently in the middle of a series of lower highs and lower lows. Assuming this continues there will be two significant battle areas:
(1) down around the 200 DMA and
(2) down around the 1,050
the latter is crucial in the minds of the bulls as this will keep the longer term bull market intact. But as I've pointed out before, 1,050 can be broken and it wouldn't spell doom for longer term bulls. See 1997/1998 and 2004 as perfect examples of this. However, if this does happen, we must be absolutely sure to wait until after the market makes a new high above the previous high before getting back in. That's the difference between 2004 and 2008. People buying in 08 waited a long ass time before either bailing or hoping to get back to even. People in 04 confirmed the uptrend was intact when the market bottomed out then made a high above the previous high, negating the 04 series of lower lows and lower highs. I think this is crucial in terms of a longer term picture.
Sorry for rambling...
the other tactic we can all do is just keep buying month after month and not give a crap about any of this. eventually we will average in at a good price. and it will keep us in a zenful state of mind. my spirit wants to do this but my ignorance (mind) wants me to continue outperforming the market and stressing out about it.
ReplyDeleteJust imagine if you had bought some gold each month from 1980 on. What year would it have been that you'd have given up in disgust? I doubt anyone would have lasted till the bottom 10 yrs ago or so........
ReplyDeleteTOF- I honestly was not as concerned about the spill in the gulf in terms of trading as you until the last few days. Perhaps my background in engineering is starting to tick in, but as failed attempts to stem the flow increase, one must at least acknowledge the possibility that a fix might be beyond the imagination of conventional engineering.
ReplyDeleteI found Friday's trading in the Ngas players and land drillers rather telling. Hell SD closed flat on the day, and on Wed. 24K calls were bought and only 4K puts. 3X the normal volume. PXP which has some exposure to off shore drilling actually held up very well.
mark,
ReplyDeletehere is a real life story about what is going on. It is so sad and anyone who is from this area is sick to their heart (including me).
http://members.greenpeace.org/blog/brinkleyhutchings/2010/05/10/heartbreaking_a_local_s_account_of_the_d
wish y'all were all up here in tahoe for a dragon party.
ReplyDeletemaybe next time
vb
new post
ReplyDelete