Yep, I agree. If we have indeed seen the bottom of this correction, then the market should have rallied today. As it is, however, I think we have another leg down coming in S&P, which will take it to 1000 or below. At 1000, I'll close my remaining ultrashorts and the XLF/XHB shorts that I opened at the horribly wrong time (near the bottom of the January correction). At 900, I'll close all my SPY puts.
2nd - That's possible certainly, but last week Art Cashin mentioned that we might be working on a right shoulder in the SPX w/ the head being the 1219 Apr high & the LHS being the Jan 1150 level. So we might also be working back up to the 1150 level before the downturn...
OK, look, I honestly don't care where the overall market goes from here. Unless we get to another end of the world scenario, I'll keep picking up Co. that I consider to be way over sold. Obviously, PXP is one of those. When I was with MOG today, I wasn't the only one buying. I can't share the quantity, but it was a lot. He backed out all of lease issues and came up with a 10-15% hit, added 10-15% impairment, and bought more today. This is from CS today regarding some of the effected gulf plays. I'll send the PDF in an e-mail if anyone wants it...
"Plains Exploration & Production (PXP) We reduce our target price to $29 from $37, which is based on parity to our 'PD Plus' NAV run at $80 oil and $7 gas long-term. Our revised NAV includes $3.20 per share of value tied to unbooked discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico (11% of total value) versus $11.30 per share prior; a reduction of 72%. Key projects that were deferred include Friesian (removing value from our NAV vs. $1.90 prior), Vicksburg (removing value from our NAV vs. $2.40 prior), Lucius ($1.70 per share vs. $3.00 prior) and Blueberry Hill ($0.80 per share vs. $1.00 prior). We are also removing value for Davy Jones from our NAV ($1.80 prior) and while we recognize Davy Jones is in shallow water, we presume the higher pressures and innovation associated with the ultra-Deep Shelf will put that play under heavy regulatory scrutiny. Current appraisal activity which must be halted per the Executive Order includes the APC-operated Lucius discovery (33.3% PXP WI). Our 2010, 2011 and 2012 production estimates fall 0%/1%/7% putting yr/yr organic growth at 7%/11%/10%. Per latest available data, the Gulf of Mexico represented 4% of reserves and 10% of production."
Hatoyama To Step Down As Prime MinisterTOKYO (Dow Jones)--Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama will announce his resignation at an emergency plenary meeting of ruling party lawmakers later Wednesday, national broadcaster NHK reported.
Calls have been growing within the Democratic Party of Japan for his resignation after a recent plunge in the cabinet's approval rating and his awkward handling of the relocation of a U.S. military base in Okinawa.
NHK said Hatoyama conveyed his intent to resign to DPJ leaders.
Oh yes, the US military base in Okinawa! I was wondering when/if that subject would blow-up, those folks are absolutely livid!
It all seems so Romanesque... I don't understand why the US military needs to be in Japan at all anymore, I think they all should come home from both there and Germany.
I was wrong about the green close guess. It was really a stupid thing to say....pulled it out of the 'ol keister, actually. And I guess at the time it seemed possible. But I was wrong.
Kudos to Vad, who, if you haven't gone to his daily roundup and looked, now adds charts to illustrate some of his daily activity. It looks good and seems useful.
Well boys, we are past the point of no return. Their cutting the damaged riser off the BOP as we speak. MOG gives it a 50/50 chance to fit the LMRP over the riser. If that's successful, AND they can warm the discharge pipe, AND can get sufficient flow/suction to reduce the pressure at the LMRP seal point, 90-95% of the oil should be captured.
I don't see how they can warm the large volume of oil/gas enough to keep ice from forming and I hear there's a horizontal leak from about a thousand feet lower down the casing that's surfacing 5-6 miles away.
Who knows, do ya' think maybe they're wishing they'd used a better valve system and hadn't taken so many shortcuts?
Sharkie - you had said this well issue was weighing on markets (in addition to the multitude of other eurozone issues, etc.) and would leak for years, possibly longer.
I hope you're incorrect (you probably do as well), but sometimes I wonder where you get notions like that...
A little more color from MOG. The relief well will work, and from what he is hearing, it's way ahead of the schedule we are hearing on TV. He says they are at the right depth already and are starting the horizontal path.
Just so you all don't think he's crazy, he wouldn't touch BP/RIG/CAM/HAL with a 10' pole.
CP- Horizontal leak, etc. He says no way. Physics don't allow it. However, he says it's possible that there are under-surface oil streams due to the depth, but doubts that also.
I haven't listened to Coast 2 Coast in a very long time unfortunately, I used to enjoy some of the episodes purely from an entertainment perspective. The unfortunate part is I came to realize only a small part of it was verifiable from what research I could accomplish by using the standard set of household accouterments.
I recall in particular a supposed Bigfoot hunting party that never materialized.... and lots of talk about government cooperation with alien beings and such.
"Coast to Coast AM is a talk radio show hosted by George Noory (weekdays) and Art Bell (weekends) that is also available via streaming on internet radio. He has long had an interest in UFO and other alien and extraterrestrial phenomena and has applied his investigative skills across a wide variety of topics."
I think the song sucks but the video kept my undivided attention for some unknown reason. Subliminal messages? "------- Is that young lady famous? Is she 28? Is she John Kay's granddaughter? Does she have sunscreen on those spots where the sun does not normally shine? Does she go on magic carpet rides? This is way more plesant than watching that armadillo caught in John Kay's leather pants.-----" Were just a few of my random thoughts while vewing. I think I will watch it again. Robear.
GMO @ $1 - Everyone wants another crack at a deal like that!
Beginning to think I'll have to trade my way to riches but making this a reality is proving elusive... It's almost as if computers are running prices up and down at will.
OMC - I was looking at OMC a bit ago, seems pretty solid since sales are what makes the world go round and there's bound to be renewing interest there assuming progress for economic recovery.
man - who is that girl at the start of the video above? talk about knockout.
FYI - the series of higher lows and higher highs hasn't been violated...yet.
Also, if anyone is in FTFL...you have to be in the stock until 6/8 to get the $0.20 dividend, which is payable on 6/30. the dividend equates to a 12.5% div yield.
David- When talking about our energy future, he mentioned clean energy, Natgas, and nuclear as a group. First time I've EVER heard him say anything about Natty.
PXP too risky? I'm also eying TOT. Not to mention GS is probably worth considerably more than it's trading for now as well, the best set of leach lips ever contrived in the history of man and it's down big time from it's high...
Mark, that was some purchase you made for PXP yesterday. Congratulations! Are you planning to unload yesterday's purchase at today's close? 10% in a day is awesome, and if it keeps going up, then you'll be happy about the rest of your PXP position increasing in value.
When you say whole market, do you mean globally? Pick an index(s) and I'll see what can be accomplished if anything but unfortunately my tools have serious limitations (yea, IMO HB&B makes sure of this which may actually have provided an edge for the little guy(dumb money) with shallow pockets deemed unworthy of picking?)....
PXP and CLNE both made spectacular gains today. For an intermediate trend trader and a hopeful long term investor, like me, they will have to advance some more. Plains has not even cleared it's 10 day exponential moving average. CLNE has but got stopped out at the 20 EXP and is still slightly below its EMA 200.
Anyone else think we nose-dive tomorrow?
ReplyDeleteYep, I agree. If we have indeed seen the bottom of this correction, then the market should have rallied today. As it is, however, I think we have another leg down coming in S&P, which will take it to 1000 or below. At 1000, I'll close my remaining ultrashorts and the XLF/XHB shorts that I opened at the horribly wrong time (near the bottom of the January correction). At 900, I'll close all my SPY puts.
ReplyDelete2nd - That's possible certainly, but last week Art Cashin mentioned that we might be working on a right shoulder in the SPX w/ the head being the 1219 Apr high & the LHS being the Jan 1150 level. So we might also be working back up to the 1150 level before the downturn...
ReplyDeleteGreat ad... I need Her to promote my business.
ReplyDeleteFor my older friends... follow 2nd to vancouver. it is a nice life
2nd, can you send more info ?
Crazy Oil Guy here!!!.
ReplyDeleteOK, look, I honestly don't care where the overall market goes from here. Unless we get to another end of the world scenario, I'll keep picking up Co. that I consider to be way over sold. Obviously, PXP is one of those. When I was with MOG today, I wasn't the only one buying. I can't share the quantity, but it was a lot. He backed out all of lease issues and came up with a 10-15% hit, added 10-15% impairment, and bought more today. This is from CS today regarding some of the effected gulf plays. I'll send the PDF in an e-mail if anyone wants it...
Sorry...here it is.
ReplyDelete"Plains Exploration & Production (PXP)
We reduce our target price to $29 from $37, which is based on parity to our 'PD Plus' NAV
run at $80 oil and $7 gas long-term. Our revised NAV includes $3.20 per share of value
tied to unbooked discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico (11% of total value) versus $11.30 per
share prior; a reduction of 72%. Key projects that were deferred include Friesian
(removing value from our NAV vs. $1.90 prior), Vicksburg (removing value from our NAV
vs. $2.40 prior), Lucius ($1.70 per share vs. $3.00 prior) and Blueberry Hill ($0.80 per
share vs. $1.00 prior). We are also removing value for Davy Jones from our NAV ($1.80
prior) and while we recognize Davy Jones is in shallow water, we presume the higher
pressures and innovation associated with the ultra-Deep Shelf will put that play under
heavy regulatory scrutiny. Current appraisal activity which must be halted per the
Executive Order includes the APC-operated Lucius discovery (33.3% PXP WI). Our 2010,
2011 and 2012 production estimates fall 0%/1%/7% putting yr/yr organic growth at
7%/11%/10%. Per latest available data, the Gulf of Mexico represented 4% of reserves
and 10% of production."
Hatoyama To Step Down As Prime MinisterTOKYO (Dow Jones)--Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama will announce his resignation at an emergency plenary meeting of ruling party lawmakers later Wednesday, national broadcaster NHK reported.
ReplyDeleteCalls have been growing within the Democratic Party of Japan for his resignation after a recent plunge in the cabinet's approval rating and his awkward handling of the relocation of a U.S. military base in Okinawa.
NHK said Hatoyama conveyed his intent to resign to DPJ leaders.
vb- The only info I have right now is the link loannetter provided:
ReplyDeletewww.liveathorizon.com
I will however take profits in CE/HEK/FTWR if things get dicey. SD falls into the PXP category.
ReplyDeleteJB was born in Okinawa.
ReplyDeleteOh yes, the US military base in Okinawa! I was wondering when/if that subject would blow-up, those folks are absolutely livid!
ReplyDeleteIt all seems so Romanesque... I don't understand why the US military needs to be in Japan at all anymore, I think they all should come home from both there and Germany.
vb - Aren't diamonds a gal's best friend???
ReplyDeleteOn an unrelated note:
Lions and tigers and bears, ha, ha!
PXP - I'm certainly glad I've refrained until now but today sure looked like an exponential capitulation (says the untrained eye).
Looks like the Nikkei likes the resignation news:
ReplyDeletehttp://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/freetop.aspx
I was wrong about the green close guess.
ReplyDeleteIt was really a stupid thing to say....pulled it out of the 'ol keister, actually. And I guess at the time it seemed possible. But I was wrong.
Kudos to Vad, who, if you haven't gone to his daily roundup and looked, now adds charts to illustrate some of his daily activity. It looks good and seems useful.
A pic = A thousand words
Oh. What I meant when I said stupid to say, I feel/have felt were in a correction I see few/no signs of being over.
ReplyDeleteWell boys, we are past the point of no return. Their cutting the damaged riser off the BOP as we speak. MOG gives it a 50/50 chance to fit the LMRP over the riser. If that's successful, AND they can warm the discharge pipe, AND can get sufficient flow/suction to reduce the pressure at the LMRP seal point, 90-95% of the oil should be captured.
ReplyDeleteUpdates as long as I'm awake/sober....
I don't see how they can warm the large volume of oil/gas enough to keep ice from forming and I hear there's a horizontal leak from about a thousand feet lower down the casing that's surfacing 5-6 miles away.
ReplyDeleteWho knows, do ya' think maybe they're wishing they'd used a better valve system and hadn't taken so many shortcuts?
Sharkie - you had said this well issue was weighing on markets (in addition to the multitude of other eurozone issues, etc.) and would leak for years, possibly longer.
ReplyDeleteI hope you're incorrect (you probably do as well), but sometimes I wonder where you get notions like that...
A little more color from MOG. The relief well will work, and from what he is hearing, it's way ahead of the schedule we are hearing on TV. He says they are at the right depth already and are starting the horizontal path.
ReplyDeleteJust so you all don't think he's crazy, he wouldn't touch BP/RIG/CAM/HAL with a 10' pole.
CP- Horizontal leak, etc. He says no way. Physics don't allow it. However, he says it's possible that there are under-surface oil streams due to the depth, but doubts that also.
ReplyDeleteHey CP. Did you hear the guest on Coast to Coast the other night talking about the well?
ReplyDeleteThey have a lot of cool stuff on that program.
I haven't listened to Coast 2 Coast in a very long time unfortunately, I used to enjoy some of the episodes purely from an entertainment perspective. The unfortunate part is I came to realize only a small part of it was verifiable from what research I could accomplish by using the standard set of household accouterments.
ReplyDeleteI recall in particular a supposed Bigfoot hunting party that never materialized.... and lots of talk about government cooperation with alien beings and such.
What the heck is coast to coast?
ReplyDelete40 years hun? The inventor of the internet, and the inspiration for the classic "A love Story"?
ReplyDeleteGuess there's no hope the the common folk.
"Coast to Coast AM is a talk radio show hosted by George Noory (weekdays) and Art Bell (weekends) that is also available via streaming on internet radio. He has long had an interest in UFO and other alien and extraterrestrial phenomena and has applied his investigative skills across a wide variety of topics."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.coasttocoastam.com/
Good God 2nd has good taste in youtubes.....Steppenwolf 28? whatever you say.
ReplyDeleteI think the song sucks but the video kept my undivided attention for some unknown reason. Subliminal messages? "------- Is that young lady famous? Is she 28? Is she John Kay's granddaughter? Does she have sunscreen on those spots where the sun does not normally shine? Does she go on magic carpet rides? This is way more plesant than watching that armadillo caught in John Kay's leather pants.-----" Were just a few of my random thoughts while vewing. I think I will watch it again.
ReplyDeleteRobear.
Now nobody likes Steppenwolf? There's something wrong with that! Okay, maybe not all of SW is worthy...
ReplyDeleteThey managed to keep the indexes from tanking overnight.
ReplyDeleteShoulda bought a little BP at the close.
ReplyDeleteStill think the indexes stall then fall today.
ReplyDeleteI came up with that one on my own, but I hate phrases like that- 'stall then fall,' 'one and done,' etc...
ReplyDeleteLandry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
The indices continued their recent slide out of a shorter-term
pullback and recent Gatekeeper pattern.
Most areas have taken on a similar appearance.
Some areas such as Oil Service have been hit especially hard though.
Continue to look to play the short side. Trail and scale on
existing positions as offered.
Futures are firm pre-market.
stall then fall...sounds like my take on todays market:) Also sounds like me on 6 or 7 of those tall-boy Guinness:)
ReplyDeleteI haven't traded in weeks I think. I don't plan to trade. I want LVS at a dollar, ok, 2. I want PAL at 75 cents. I want GMO at a dollar, ok?
I am on a shoppers strike!
I hear Wal-Mart is offering Ketchup at 1.
ReplyDeleteAnyone finding anything interesting??
ReplyDeleteI've been tracking RIG. It hit 48, but it must have been only for a second or two.
ReplyDeletePicking up ERY @ 12.92...
ReplyDelete2nd- HAL is cooking. (Just saw it)
ReplyDeleteERY off @ 12.82...Damn
ReplyDeleteGMO @ $1 - Everyone wants another crack at a deal like that!
ReplyDeleteBeginning to think I'll have to trade my way to riches but making this a reality is proving elusive... It's almost as if computers are running prices up and down at will.
PAL looks tempting, but I'm holding back!
ReplyDelete(almost bought it at 3.33 but couldn't pull the trigger, which is odd for me)
As shark would say- stunad! Got played by ERY...
ReplyDeletePicking up RIG @ 48.39...
ReplyDeletePAL over the last few weeks, it seems like it has a hard time with 3.38.
ReplyDeleteOut of RIG @ 46.92. Should have spent the morning doing something productive, man...
ReplyDeleteI'm out of here....I'll catch you guys later.
ReplyDeleteOMC - I was looking at OMC a bit ago, seems pretty solid since sales are what makes the world go round and there's bound to be renewing interest there assuming progress for economic recovery.
ReplyDeleteIt should shoot back up quickly, no?
INT - This one looks good as well.
ReplyDeleteman - who is that girl at the start of the video above? talk about knockout.
ReplyDeleteFYI - the series of higher lows and higher highs hasn't been violated...yet.
Also, if anyone is in FTFL...you have to be in the stock until 6/8 to get the $0.20 dividend, which is payable on 6/30. the dividend equates to a 12.5% div yield.
i gotta go long something.....
ReplyDelete2nd - I'm with you, should'a bought PXP, WOW!
ReplyDeleteHey Guys...I guess the deal is, do we break the pattern of late day sell offs or not. Oh, how I remember those a year ago.
ReplyDeleteBy the way...Go Natty!!!
ReplyDeleteCIE...if PXP isn't risky enough for you :)
ReplyDeleteSD is running a little here. Arena deal sweetend by 6%. Initial reaction looks to be a head fake.
ReplyDeleteAh...I see. Obama spoke the magic word finally. Natgas.
ReplyDeleteMark, what did Obama say about Natgas? I am eagerly waiting for HNUZF to hit my sell limit at $5.80 -- it is almost there. :)
ReplyDeleteLong PAL just on the idea that Asia rallies tonight.
ReplyDeleteBought STT at $38.1. It is now at the 50% retracement of the gains from March 2009 and the peak after then.
ReplyDeleteteamonfuego, are you still heavily invested into SPY?
ReplyDeletecorrection: STT is just above the 50% retracement if you look at closing lows and closing highs.
ReplyDeleteDavid - yes I'm still heavily into SPY. My stop is a close below the Feb lows.
ReplyDeleteDavid- When talking about our energy future, he mentioned clean energy, Natgas, and nuclear as a group. First time I've EVER heard him say anything about Natty.
ReplyDeletePXP too risky? I'm also eying TOT. Not to mention GS is probably worth considerably more than it's trading for now as well, the best set of leach lips ever contrived in the history of man and it's down big time from it's high...
ReplyDeleteTOF- Good luck with STT. I've been watching it everyday.
ReplyDeleteA break above 6.40 for SD, I have 7.30 as it's next target.
ReplyDeleteWow - natty earns honorable mention, pinch me please and watch out for the obligatory drop!
ReplyDeletePXP is the 6th highest percentage gainer on the NYSE.
ReplyDeleteHow's the volume today?
ReplyDeleteMark, that was some purchase you made for PXP yesterday. Congratulations! Are you planning to unload yesterday's purchase at today's close? 10% in a day is awesome, and if it keeps going up, then you'll be happy about the rest of your PXP position increasing in value.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Anybody think maybe revamped oil industry regulations might be helpful for metallic alloy miners of nickle and perhaps even molybdenum?
ReplyDeleteI certainly hope the administration doesn't give GMO some form of honorable mention during upcoming oil industry regulation jaw-jack sessions.
FTWR...sniff, sniff...You stink.
ReplyDeleteDavid- Thanks, I'm considering it. Let's see how they bring her in.
ReplyDeleteSPY relative volume is currently 0.80, on the light side...
ReplyDeleteDavid- Volume today is 50% higher in PXP than yesterday.
ReplyDeleteCP- Thanks. Sometimes volume in SPY can be deceiving. Any idea about the whole market?
ReplyDeleteOrder inbalance on the sell side for HAL/CHK/BP. Not PXP.
ReplyDeleteOrder inbalance on the buy side for CIE...Hmmm.
DVN on the buy side.
ReplyDeleteWhen you say whole market, do you mean globally? Pick an index(s) and I'll see what can be accomplished if anything but unfortunately my tools have serious limitations (yea, IMO HB&B makes sure of this which may actually have provided an edge for the little guy(dumb money) with shallow pockets deemed unworthy of picking?)....
ReplyDeleteOK...1105 or nothing!!
ReplyDeleteCP- NYSE/Nasdaq.
ReplyDeleteMan...The Natgas guys just exploded today. Missed a very clean entry into CLNE. Take a look at the chart.
ReplyDeleteMark - Go check out sharkie's place, this might be in line with what you're searching for????
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sharkinvesting.com/volume.aspx
Thanks CP...I'll check it out.
ReplyDeletePXP and CLNE both made spectacular gains today. For an intermediate trend trader and a hopeful long term investor, like me, they will have to advance some more. Plains has not even cleared it's 10 day exponential moving average. CLNE has but got stopped out at the 20 EXP and is still slightly below its EMA 200.
ReplyDeleteIn the fullness of time, perhaps.
new post
ReplyDelete