Monday, June 28, 2010
6/29/10 The Pusher
You know I've smoked a lot of FAS
O' Lord, I've popped a lot of shorts
But I never touched nothin'
That my spirit could kill
You know, I've seen a lot of people walkin' 'round
With tombstones in their eyes
But the pusher don't care
Ah, if you live or if you die
I placed a grain of TZA in the pipe this morning, took a quick hit, and made $300.
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Can you believe Hoyt Axton penned the lyrics to 'Pusher?'
ReplyDeleteEerie how UNG closed at the price Craig quoted over the weekend.
ReplyDelete"Eerie how UNG closed at the price Craig quoted over the weekend."
ReplyDeleteThat means Craig bought some UNG today -- right, Craig? :)
I hope the the H&S pattern it traced out in June is not going to resolve itself to the downside -- we didn't have enough time to enjoy the UNG rally!
UNG - That H&S pattern does have a rather ominous shape to it.
ReplyDeleteS&P also had a clear H&S pattern in July 2009, which was resolved to the upside because it was formed during upward-pointing fundamentals. Let's hope that the H&S pattern in UNG will also resolve itself to the upside, since the hurricane season is not over yet and it is too early yet for UNG to start a sustained decline.
ReplyDeleteI saw this on the local news last might on the Gay Pride parade in SF. Way to funny and clever.
ReplyDeleteI give you... The Cupcakes...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rk39ZzS77qI
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/205238.shtml?tswind120#contents
ReplyDeleteI would have to say that end-of-quarter window-dressing gives bulls the edge into Wednesday's close.
ReplyDeleteShould the indexes sell off Wednesday, that would be about as bearish as it gets.
ReplyDelete10-year bond yields closed near 3%.
ReplyDeleteYet my broker tells me mortgage rates today did not even hit last week's lows.
My 'crystal ball' still sees a major sell off.
ReplyDeleteI can't even shake the feeling the sell-off starts tonight. Not that I would put any money on it. Just passing along unshakable thoughts ;)
ReplyDeleteThere's a old fashioned plain as day H&S pattern in S&P right now, with the head in mid April. We're currently riding the downside of the right shoulder.
ReplyDeleteI've always trusted your instincts 2nd. Caution it is for now.
ReplyDeleteMan, 2nd_ave's intuition about the sell-off possibly commencing tonight seems to be right on the money: Russell 2000 futures are down 1.17% already! I am glad that I used the market rebound in June to take profits on some of my long positions and open new short positions...
ReplyDeleteHappy middle of the night guys!
ReplyDeleteI am totally flat and happy...
I knew not to re-buy PAL yesterday.....
Is today black tuesday?
Going to the Toyota dealer right now for the 60 thousand mile screwdoodle.
Remember Star Wars? If you learn to trust the Force, the force will be with you.....
It's all intuition baby!
Have a nice day watching everything go down:)
Woof Woof...Who's that? Solar! You just shit on the carpet again!
FTSE/CAC/DAX at -2%.
ReplyDeleteI would be impressed with the DJIA holding 10k at the close.
ReplyDeleteYes David, a small shot of UNG...hopefully not the port killer like it used to be. As of now I'm down a few buckeros, but trading small.
ReplyDeleteTook a loss on TBT of about $90.
My horrorscope says the lunar eclipse brings the markets a crash between June 26th and August 11 and my wife's (and mine) says a prominant woman leaves her life.
My mother in law died on the 27th.
I'm going Yoko Ono/Nancy Reagan on you.
If the stars don't get you Hussman/Rosenberg/Landry, et al will.
Bad dog, Solar!
ReplyDeleteNot a good sign...born under a bad sign?
ReplyDeleteRemember all the talk we went through about bank 'stress tests'? In humans you do those stress tests when you suspect you might drop dead of a heart attack....
Europe is 'stress testing' a couple hundred banks.
That's not a good sign.
Landry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
As you know, lately I've been thinking that the market has the "potential to challenge the bottom of its recent range--and possibly beyond." It looks like we'll see that sooner rather than later since the futures are getting whacked pre-market.
What's interesting is, last night, in spite of a flat market, I saw many sectors and stocks that looked very vulnerable so this isn't a complete surprise. Looking at 1000s of stocks and 100s of sectors/ETFs daily is the best thing you can do to get a read on the market. If you have time, I would encourage you to do the same daily (or pay me to do it for you).
Use this opportunity to scale and trail on existing shorts. Due to the magnitude of the opening gap down (likely) avoid new positions until we see how things shake out.
Just got back from Toyota!
ReplyDeleteOh what a feeling!
Anybody trading?
not sure what's worse...holding on to stocks and waiting to get stopped out at under 1,040 or regretting selling your SPY short / BGZ long at 1,090.
ReplyDeleteI think i know the answer, but now it's too late to get back in on the short side, right?
No one gets it exactly right- that's not how the market works.
ReplyDeleteJust be glad you're not fully invested. Side-stepping a 2% sell-off is the equivalent of making 2%, IMO.
indeed 2nd. i'm steering clear of shorting at this point because there are vested interests in keeping prices up so the odds are stacked against us. i've decided to start making my buy list and writing down prices that I think would make for great long term buys. it's going to take a while, but i suppose so too will the bottoming process. i'm looking forward to a relaxing summer while this occurs.
ReplyDeleteWell, it looks like lower rates are coming to those who are looking to refinance their mortgages.
ReplyDeleteI haven't heard too much from WDC, are they keeping their lips shut?
I'm really busy today, but I set stink bids on TBT/HEK/BAC/CE/XOM. If we crash into the close, some of these might hit. GOOD LUCK sailors!!!
ReplyDeleteMark- Did you turn your apps in yesterday? I think we see 4.5% this week.
ReplyDeleteS&P - 5% under 200dma here, 1025 target?
ReplyDeleteby the way, look no further than AAPL breaking down as proof that the market is SOL.
ReplyDeletemaybe richard russell is right and maybe this was one of the biggest tops ever in stock market history.
at the top of my buy list will be small to large cap companies with pristine balance sheets and a history of 10+ years of income and positive cash flow.
if you're looking for shorts, pay close attention to the balance sheet. one company that i think could be a really good short is WNC.
ReplyDeleteAAPL - Good point, let's see if the lower trend line holds up...
ReplyDeletePAL very in-demand despite everything, no position, no trades today.
ReplyDeleteI am on a one-man buyers strike.
I think I am going to go out and walk my dog Solar:) Cmere boy! Solar? Let go of the mailman's leg! Bad doggie! Bad, Bad doggie:)
Banks start reporting earnings soon don't they?
ReplyDelete7/16 BAC
7/21 WFC
Anybody have a feeling for which way they'll go?
Shanghai Surprise...
ReplyDeleteHmmm.....If so, I hope it involves the new waitress from dinner at the Tiger Bowl last night:)
Don't try to call for take-out:)
Oh my God Solar just ran across the street and was hit by a car!
ReplyDeleteI think he's dead!
I think that must have been his litter mate, Exxon. He looks to be within about .90 of his life.
ReplyDeleteWhen are the European bank stress tests being announced, or have they already been?
ReplyDeleteKeep in mind that Bill thought yesterday that 1050 would be successfully tested, and that we move up from there....
ReplyDeleteSo come on and sell off, damn it!!!
ReplyDeleteYesterday. They announced them last night on Bloomburger.
ReplyDeleteWhat everyone knows......
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/06/major-indices-looking-ugly-billy-ray/
WDC market leads national home price increases.
ReplyDeleteActually, Bill's take adds to the probability the sell-off accelerates into Black Wednesday. If not Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteBill is now and has always been....
ReplyDeleteTotally clueless. First of all, in my old job Canada was my territory. Lucky me. I set frigging SALES RECORDS cold calling Canadian business owners who were so far out of the loop they actually appreciated sales calls:)
Secondly, Bill is HB and B as much as anyone. That's how he knows so much about them; what spoiled stupid brats they are.
Thirdly, and this is mean, Bill is, more often than not, a frigging contrary indicator. I will NEVER FORGET 2 September/Octobers ago when Bill was calling for a new bull market and I was calling for more financial armageddon.
Guess who turned out to be right?
That was, I believe, my true Stalinist-era political faux pas...After being so right and him so wrong, and so dramatically so, the writing was on the wall, measures had to be taken, and for me, it was only a matter of time.
The emperor must appear clothed:)
I am much happier now not having such a big gringo around to pacify and in the presence of whom I felt pressure to water down and ameliorate the full measure of my commentary:)
Today we close at S&P 1040 (or even slightly above, to give people a feeling that the support level has held) and tomorrow we open at S&P 1020 and head down from there. This will make sure that no one gets a clean exit once the 1040 neckline of the S&P H&S pattern gets broken.
ReplyDeletewe could have a 5,6, 7 hundred point drop today. I don't think 1040's gonna hold, do you? And do you want to bet that it will?:)
ReplyDeleteOh hey David. I managed to revive him and he's on doggie support now:)
ReplyDeleteWe're pumping him full of Obama stumulus dollars he didn't know he appropriated yet:)
Gentlemen, we truly are witnessing something historic...The wholesale destruction of a nation.
David....Think about what you said...Even IF we did close right here, how many would believe that "support" had held? Six people maybe?
ReplyDeleteTrading wise:
ReplyDelete1. If we DO hold then we have time.
2. If we don't then flat is good.
3. Or, you might lean one way or the other and get gapped out. This is as good a place as any with a clear line.
#2 is better to me.
Sharkie - Gotta agree, your calls last year were much better than most any.
ReplyDeleteYou use the term destruction; I'm tryin to take that one step further by injecting the term restructure...
Trying to get my bearings, so from here you think lower lows than 2009 are probable?
I'm going to go do something constructive and let this train wreck sort itself out.
ReplyDeleteWatching won't help it happen any faster.
Sure wish I didn't pull the trigger so fast on the TLT I bought at 87.33, pretty much bottom ticked it. Got screwdoodled on a head fake.
Another day, another...well, nevermind....
Even though the June H&S pattern in UNG did break to the downside, I am not convinced that UNG is on the way to making new lows -- the hurricane season is not over yet! Hence, today's drop should be used as a cautious buying opportunity, and I decided today to reload at $7.25 the 500 shares of UNG I sold at $8.25 during its initial surge upward. The $7.25 price was obtained by selling 5 August $8 puts for $0.75 each.
ReplyDeleteI think I may have seen Natasha and Boris driving by just a second ago...
ReplyDeleteCP, which Natasha and Boris are you talking about? My good friends Natasha and Boris live in NYC... :)
ReplyDeleteSalmon flavored vodka? Pass the heave bucket!
ReplyDelete"Even IF we did close right here, how many would believe that "support" had held? Six people maybe?"
ReplyDeleteShark, if you think that only six people will believe that the support had held here, then you should DEFINITELY buy SPY if it closes at 1040, since no more sellers will come out of the woods tomorrow and it will have a major up day tomorrow.
I, on the other hand, think that MANY people will believe that the support had held, and so I think there will be plenty of disappointed overnight futures sellers, with J6P joining them tomorrow.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone here suffer from gout?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.controlgout.com/views/first.aspx
Good God, they're debating Hayek and Keynes at CC.
ReplyDeleteWhat a waste of time.
I visited "Economists View" the other day where they discuss this crap.
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/
More wasted arguing.
They even type like they speak....goofy.
I'll add my 2 cents on the question: Will 1040 support hold or not?
ReplyDeleteMaybe I'm not interpreting the chart correctly but it appears the left shoulder began to form around 1025, so would that not be a potential target?
Yes but there's no way in hell I'm turning myself into a medical guinea pig.
ReplyDeleteI put on my swami hat and stared at my crystal ball for about 45 minutes....nothing.
ReplyDeleteAll I heard was "who you foolin' with the cosmik debris?"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-E6FDf9GkA
Then I visited Shark and stirred Solar's guts with a stick...or was it Exxon? Anyway, I got nothing.
David, not NYC, I saw them from the coffee shop window in Arlington just down from the Pentagon. I think they were being followed...
ReplyDeleteYea, everyone has their individual pain level tolerances. I'm fortunate mine's high but sometimes it takes longer than anticipated to ratchet my knee-point upwards.
ReplyDeleteBest thing for everybody.....
ReplyDeleteA crash down to DOW 5000, slow enough though so that a lot of stock can change hands, with a close that day around 7000 so that it's very, very cathartic, not to mention, enriching:)
These numbers are not real numbers just rought approximations.
ok, maybe not EVERYBODY:):)
ReplyDeleteSolar bit the dust, unfortunately.
ReplyDeleteHe died from a fatal dose of lousy intentions, of short-sighted policymaking and above all, greed and stupidity.
Okay, so tonight on Bloomberg and CNBC the talk will be we're oversold.....
ReplyDeleteOh, and we get some upgrades tomorrow AM.
Oh yeah, QE poisoning. It happens.
ReplyDeleteVerizon to carry AAPL product services starting next year.
ReplyDeleteAny comments on the "dark cross"?
ReplyDeleteSure, I've been contemplating the dark cross. Don't plan on adding anything until that's past tense but wouldn't it be phunny if that were the bottom?
ReplyDeleteRIP Solar, must've been puppy love...
ReplyDeleteCADC - Coming to me, does anyone have an interest/opinion on Chinese stocks? I had an eye out for this one in the low $3.60's and it's coming fast.
ReplyDeleteQE poisoning - Sounds kinda like chemotherapy.
ReplyDeleteRIMM- Looks like my fears were well founded.
ReplyDeleteDark Cross= Extremely significant.
ReplyDeleteAt the very least it should have you asking 3 times before going long.
We are definitely going into the next phase of the global credit bust and all of it's ramifications. Yes it's a depression not a recession, no we never came out of it, it continues to unfold and in many ways as Bob pointed out the other day it dates to sometime around the turn of the century after which time we were going on the fumes of phony ersatz credit bubble, and there is a time element which must be respected, as well as a common sense element.
Time Element: You "lend" millions of stunads shitloads of money for 60-plus years (of course there is no lending of money involved, the buyer is merely allowed to go into debt, but let's keep it simple) to make the single best, greatest investment that you can EVER make (a guaranteed loser if you get the law of markets, right?) but that's what it was. They lent so much money to so many people for so long prior to the wholesale destruction of the American jobs base that you cannot expect this thing to work itself out in a few short years. It's gonna take........like 15 more years or something like that. Also, with the contraction that continues to unfold, no shit stocks are coming down. And with stocks coming down and no buyers in sight and Johnny Babyboomer needing to cash out, more now than ever before, well, no shit housing prices are still destined to come down quite a bit in many cases.
A ton of double/triple bottoms getting getting a good feel right now...
ReplyDeleteWhy the interest in solar's demise? :)
Can you say "Flashcrash"....
ReplyDeleteAnd no it does not involve a chick lifting up her shirt, although that's always much appreciated as well:)
Wooopsss...There goes 1040.
ReplyDeleteRIMM better come up with some real snappy news soon, or back to 30 she goes......
ReplyDeleteIf Uncle Ben were to deposit a chunk of cash into my trading account, I'd be happy to buy something.
ReplyDeleteSidelines, here. Lost $56 today. I think things get uglier before they get better.
ReplyDeleteprices are acting like short covering right now.
ReplyDeleteStink bid in for SSO in the IRA.
ReplyDeleteGuys, S&P *will* close today at 1040. There is no point in breaking that support level today -- that would have given an easy exit to shrewd traders. The question you should ask yourself is whether or not you believe 1040 holds and then do the opposite.
ReplyDeleteI am trying to purchase some ECU.TO at the bid price of CAD$0.62 for the whole day today and no one is selling it to me! Damn!
ReplyDeleteCan't find an order inbalance either way.
ReplyDeletethis feels way too orderly and calm eh? considering the technical implications?
ReplyDeleteOK, change of plan. :) Looks like 1040 is not going to hold today, which *would* scare many people out of their positions before the close and make a great setup for a rally tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteSaw a whiff of panic in some of the stuff I follow.
ReplyDeleteGood call on the close David.
ReplyDeleteNope, 1040 did hold today, so there ain't gonna be a big rally tomorrow. :)
ReplyDeleteI tried to purchase some ECU.TO yesterday at the bid of CAD$0.63 and no one sold it to me either. :) Maybe tomorrow ECU will gap down to $0.60 and then I'll just buy it at the asking price, while thanking the stingy people who didn't sell it to me yesterday and today. :)
ReplyDeleteWell of course 1040 holds, because the sheeple haven't lost enough of their money yet. The computers are programmed to suck in the knife catchers prior to the death cross.
ReplyDeleteMy question at this point is if 1025 holds, what say ye sharkie, my impression is you believe we're headed much lower... to new depths?
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOFK8rM9XQvs&pos=2
ReplyDeleteDon't worry, they're working on more....
Think maybe the death cross and the BP leak stoppage success have correlation?
ReplyDelete"Don't worry, they're working on more.... "
ReplyDeleteYea, certainly not a sign of a proactive approach, it's always a reaction and more of the same thing that only resulted in a temporary confidence boost.
Jobs are what's needed, even if those jobs are infrastructure oriented and government paid they will at least produce benefit and add value while providing income to workers so they may buy foreclosed homes.
Everything our government has done so far has been geared toward treating symptoms and not addressing root causes.
Still we have no:
1) Jobs growth
2) Infrastructure improvement
Where are those two items in the plan? They're not going to enforce banks to make loans and they're not going to enforce corporate hiring.
And for another potential scenario concerning BP and the death cross, how about a little "rally on BP success" that gets stomped out by the death cross?
ReplyDeleteHas anyone identified any horse accessory/buggy whip stocks?
ReplyDeleteOPTIONs
ReplyDeletehttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/asia_pacific/10430733.stm
Is RFD TV publically traded?
ReplyDeleteI haven't bought stock in 2 days.
ReplyDeleteOh and RIMM was/is one of those "no-brainer" shorts I was referencing earlier in the week.
They were talking 2 days ago about how much RIMM sucks.
Wow, $700k sounds like a bargain, there must be a catch.
ReplyDeleteRIMM is hosed, where were their R&D efforts? No R&D can be a real show stopper in a sea of mega companies swooping in to snatch one of the most promising markets in recent history.
ReplyDeleteHow the heck is the US going to go high tech using just existing copper land lines? May as well just use kite string and coffee cans considering our overwhelming preference for fraud and waste as opposed to interest in infrastructure investment.
GIS getting shit-canned now.
ReplyDeleteCoffee cans? Geez, when did you get that phone?
ReplyDeleteNobody's using those big cans anymore since they went to the No. 3 can network. You need to update so you can impress the chicks with your new smaller can. And surprisingly, they have about the same range as the old bag cans.
I've been using this site as a gauge for when the market might be oversold or overbought. It's not exact science by any means but when oversold stocks significantly outweigh overbought ones then the markets are probably due for a bounce soon:
ReplyDeletehttp://rsi-trader.blogspot.com/