Two excerpts from Hulbert worth noting for those of you too lazy to read the link:
"Another indication of the stock market's recent momentum: Two of the last six trading sessions have been so-called "9-to-1 up days." These are sessions in which the ratio of the trading volume of rising issues to that of declining issues on the New York Stock Exchange is at least 9 to 1. The volume ratio for July 7 was an impressive 21 to 1, while Tuesday's ratio was 12 to 1. "
On the other hand,
"To be sure, there have been lots of other "9-to-1 up days" in recent months -- so many, in fact, that they appear to have lost some of the bullish significance that they used to carry. There were five such days, for example, over the month ending June 10, and yet the stock market was nevertheless weak over the subsequent three weeks. ( Read Jun. 10 commentary about 9-to-1 up days.)
"Furthermore, as Dan Sullivan, editor of The Chartist, pointed out Tuesday evening, the stock market is now overbought. So we should by no means expect the market not to face headwinds in coming sessions."
In fact, if we drop to 1070, which would be a -2.3% move: then based on Hulbert's research, we could move the buy-and-hold into the SPX and reasonably expect a [1.2% + 2.3%]=3.5% move over the following month. Not a bad return.
David- TK's most recent post re the positioning of his port:
"I remain completely short, although I have scaled back so I am only about 95% committed (e.g. I am not using any margin at all; I had "peaked" this month at about 150% committed). I have a huge variety of short positions, and if you looked at all of them, they'd probably fall neatly into about five different categories of rationale as to why I think they're going lower."
2nd - my dad is a huge PPM fan. I am too. My folks grew up as big folk singer fans. They played together in bars...my mom had a great voice and my dad was/is an excellent guitarist.
Mark - that's pretty cool. What's his name? One of my friends on my old softball team also does the WSOP every year. He won a satellite tournament earlier this year and walked away with over $300k.
2nd - I started looking at the whole +/-3% on the 200 DMA and how it does in sideways moving markets, which is what I thought we would be entering going into 2010 and it doesn't work. So if it turns out being like this for 2010 to 2011 with 950 to 1000 on the low side and 1250 on the high side then I think it makes sense to just be buying low and selling higher and repeating it. So that's why I think we should have been buying dips like we just had and forgetting about the whole 200 DMA thing
I'll call them tomorrow and try to find out the price per ton at which they are selling this stuff. The price is probably not that great, since the stock did not rocket today. However, the important thing would be to find out whether they can generate 500K/month from it, so as to cover the debt payments that will start happening in November. If that will be the case, then ECU is "out of the woods" and it is just a matter of time before they ramp up their production sufficiently and get a positive cash flow.
"POSCO (PKX) is mulling issuing dollar denominated global bonds in order to raise approximately KRW 1 trillion ($831 million), which would be used for acquisitions and to boost liquidity, according to industry sources"
And...
"POSCO (PKX) reported earnings results for the second quarter ended June 2010. For the quarter, the company's net profit had almost tripled to KRW 1.19 trillion ($981 million) due to price rises and growing demand. The April-June figure compares with a net profit of KRW 431 billion in the second quarter of 2009. Sales jumped 25% to KRW 7.93 trillion over the same period and operating profit surged to KRW 1.84 trillion from KRW 170 billion."
A steelmaker thinking about further acquisitions and making healthy profits doesn't sound like a corporation with prospects in decline to me.
check out this guy Lee from JP Morgan...he has a 1,300 year end target on S&P. if the markets follow the 1998 markets, then that is definitely possible. see the editors video picks:
INTC newSubmitted by London (123 comments) on Wed, 07/14/2010 - 21:12 #65762 I don't get how one can take credit with all the INTC quotes, yet at same time proclaim to be in cash as of Friday and miss the rally this week.
"As I've noted in the past, the most dangerous point in the stock market is where the Market Climate is negative and stocks have cleared an oversold condition, because it opens the potential for nearly vertical declines."
Maybe we get such a vertical decline now -- who knows? I have just placed a buy stop limit order at $21.40/21.50 for 1000 shares of TWM, so as to re-enter it at exactly the same price at which I got stopped out a few days ago.
I certainly hope that stocks stay at the current level for a couple more days, so that my short positions in July $9 UCO puts and in July $19 PXP puts go to 0. After that, the market can decline all it wants.
Mark - looks like RAS continues to pare down debt at a discount. This is a discount of about 25% or so off its par value on the debt, which is a good thing in my opinion.
Jobless claims were excellent today and that's what I think people will focus on. More jobs = more demand for everything. I still think we're on the cusp of pretty significant rehiring by corporations, which is why I think we will go back up to our yearly highs again before the year is out.
Yeah I'm still in the PAL I bought yesterday. This sucker's GOTTA go up:)
TOF....another thing about the unemployment #'s....When you break them down by income and education, the joblessness is very much a blue-collar affair.....People with higher incomes and educations have very low unemployment rates....this is rarely discussed.
Personally, if I were a fully-loaded bear, I would take this opportunity to get the ---- out. Ambushed behind enemy lines and lived to tell about it.....
2nd - I still think this downturn is sucking in more bears and pushing out more bulls before making the real move. I was thinking it would go down below 1,080 to 1,070 so as to further reinforce that the market is done for.
Crossing my fingers on this call (that's always a good investment strategy) as I'm long about 75%. Will probably go all in with my longs at the close today if we stay here and use 1,060ish as a stop out.
2nd: this is more than I expected for HNU.to. congrats to David for getting this lazy boy to do the charts on it and UNG. Now the hard part is figuring when to get out. I was looking for more than 35 minutes. I was thinking 5 to 10 days.
shark: first I want PAL to come down a bit for me to get on the train.
CI- This is just my opinion, and you should feel free to ignore it. I've traded HNU.to countless times in the past. If I were holding it, I would sell immediately. That may end up being entirely the wrong thing to do, and I'm the first to admit that. But the odds are greater than 50% that NGas simply sells off again by the end of the day/tomorrow. In this mkt, I take profits when I have them. Because they disappear fast.
Having watched Natty for far too long, after a good report, the trend stays positive for a while. No report to worry about for another week. However, a 7% return is nothing to sneeze at CI. GL.
If it's always right to sell on euphoria, then I detect euphoria in NGas buyers right now. You can always buy it back tomorrow when NGas gets dumped in disgust. This is a very bipolar commodity.
Wow...3 people looking at Natty. Good advice all around. I'd only add if the over all market firms up here, Natty and Crude should follow. For me, I'm only up 2.5% for UNG, so I'll be a little patient.
So far all the sell-off has accomplished is to work off some of the 'overbought' conditions. To the extent that's all it represents, it's a bear trap...
Put in a market order and sold at $6.00 (HNU.to) You are right 2nd. I can't watch this all day and in 55 minutes I have a on-line Webinar with my broker on setting stops. Do you know this is my first day-trade.
2nd - i wonder what shorts are thinking of right now. i'm trying to put myself in the mind of a short. i'd have to imagine there is some frustration that prices keep seeming to come back. obviously that could change a lot before the day is over, but over the past several trading days the market has ignored any sign of weakness. that's a lot different than the previous 2 months where any weakness was exploited and any strength was sold.
It'll be a real tell if the market can digest today's circumstances, but good trading on the short side today fella's, I hate to make any calls at what might be a bottom or just a stop on the wat down.
The short side currently has technical support even following recent losses.
Just checking in.... shorts went short a while ago, so they are holding with stops in place and should still be ahead especially if, like Landry, they took partial profits at the downside target of 1040 or so. Just put up the chart and draw the arrow guys. The trend is still down. It doesn't mean you can't throw a trade at one of the squiggles up, but like 2nd says, keep em small and ultra-short term.
Interesting disconnect between USD and GLD. Did anyone catch BC's mistake.typo in his AM report. Is oil/PM's going higher or lower? If you write both and speak out of both sides of your mouth you can claim anything. I can't figure out what the H he's saying half the time.
I see that my buy stop order for 1000 shares of TWM was executed this morning at $21.40. I also see that TWM made a nice clear bottom recently at $21.30, so instead of placing a sell stop at my entry price, I decided to place a sell stop at $21.30, so as to give it a little more room.
On a second thought, I just sold those TWM shares at $21.39, since there seems to be a clear double bottom in stock indices on the intraday chart and I have a feeling that stocks will move higher for a little while.
I have re-placed my buy stop order for TWM at $21.40 -- I would rather catch it on the way up at the same price I exited it than staying with it during a downtrend...
Damn! I got a phone call from work and in the meantime, TWM rose to $21.40, hit my buy stop order, and then dropped back! Consistent with my strategy, I had to sell it below $21.40, and by the time I found it, it was already at $21.26...
OK, the sell limit at $40.52 was triggered, erasing the previous loss I took on TNA when I got stopped out of it. Also, the buy stop order I placed at $40.50 was triggered, and I just set a sell stop at $40.20 for these shares.
TOF, I am doing my trading in OptionsHouse, where they are charging only $2.99 per trade. That is a reasonable price to pay in order to learn day trading, especially if every time I win/lose at least $100...
Damn! Stopped out of TNA again at $40.20, for a $150 loss. That's it for me -- its intraday chart is not looking bullish any longer, but it doesn't look that bearish either, so there is nothing much that I can do here...
newSubmitted by teamonfuego (2133 comments) on Thu, 07/15/2010 - 15:10 #65814 (in reply to #65812)
ahhh..i forgot about Fin Reg today. The easy trade was for the market to go higher after it so it probably won't. That should set up the market to move higher with the fewest people on board as possible.
With all this TWM crap, I forgot to congratulate CanadianInvestor on his HNU.TO trade! I agree with 2nd_ave -- some profits in HNU.TO should be taken off the table immediately.
As for me, a sell limit order at $5.80 was triggered today for 500 shares of HNUZF I purchased at $5.30 a couple of days ago. My next sell limit is at $6.30 for 500 shares I purchased at $5.80. UNG seems to be bounded by $7 from below, and so the right strategy for now, I think, is to scale in gradually on the way down and scale out on the way up.
I just called the ECU rep and he said that the 3rd party did not want to release the sales price for the gold pyrite concentrate, but he said that with this sales contract, their total monthly revenue now is 3M/month and their expenses are 1.5M/month. So even if they do not refinance their debt payments and do start paying 1M/month starting November, they should still have positive cashflow ASSUMING that the 3rd party will renew the contract after the initial 10000 tons of gold pyrite are sold. The rep said that there is no reason for those guys not to renew the contract, since they obviously do want this stuff. Also, he said that refinancing their debt will not be a problem, since they already have banks lined up to give them 8% annually (their current term is 12%) and a longer amortization period. The rep said that the reason they haven't refinanced yet is because they are completing the feasibility study of a new much larger sulphite mill, and if they decide that the mill will be profitable, then they'll borrow more money so as to both pay out their current debt and also buy the mill. He said that they already have people willing to lend them money for the new mill just for the promise of being the sole customers of all the output of that mill. So I guess the takeoff point for the stock will be once they announce the new debt terms and their conclusion about the new mill.
I just bought 11500 more shares of ECU.TO at CAD$0.62. Now I have 38500 shares total – my largest position...
I just covered at $0.14 the 5 August $12 calls I sold a few weeks ago on AA at $0.69, for a profit of $275. I figured that if TOF is right and the market does make a move higher, then AA will go up as well and I'll sell those calls once again at $0.69. :)
Manic Markets newSubmitted by teamonfuego (2134 comments) on Thu, 07/15/2010 - 15:38 #65817 Man I'm glad I am not day trading this market. Thing about how manic you could have been today:
JPM Earnings beat significantly and the stock is up big...you get bullish.
Empire State Mfg Survey is bad...you get bearish.
Jobless Claims fall more than expected...you get bullish.
Industrial Production is worse than expected...you get bearish.
Fin Reg passes...you get bullish.
Action after Fin Reg is bad...you get bearish.
SEC announces a significant announcement after the close and markets rally...you get bullish.
How many people gamed this right?
I'd rather stay long like I have and lose a small amount than daytrade it and get faked out and pay a ton in commissions.
i'm envisioning a large short covering rally to clear the 200 DMA, then another good earnings season and a solid jobs report to rally us back up to the 1,200 level. there, i said it...please mock me now.
Just sold at $56.07 100 shares of MON that I picked up at $50. Booking a decent profit and letting the other 100 shares I picked up at $50 ride for a while. Once MON rises above $60, I'll sell covered calls against those 100 shares.
TOF, your intuition has a very good track record, so I am listening carefully to it. In fact, as I said before, if S&P rises above 1100 then I'll close all my SPY puts and will have only long positions at that point.
All 3 of my trading accounts are up today, a total of 1K. So if I close my SPY puts tomorrow and the market will keep going higher, then I'll start making real money on the long side. :)
In order to make more room in my ETrade Global Trading account for buying ECU, I removed the sell limit order I had on HNUZF in my Scottrade account and instead placed a sell limit order at $6.60 for the remaining 800 shares of HNU.TO in ETrade Global Trading.
Congrats Mark! Good to hear people are making some dough.
I'm hoping I pick up some of your luck too! I'm looking at getting back into NLS soon and my STT and PIR continue to perform well. All I need is for RAS to pick its butt off the floor. I think that one has the potential to be a multi bagger if my belief that significant jobs growth is coming soon comes to fruition.
Had loaded 1/3 into DGP the other day on a pullback and sold all but 1500 sh for about $3100 profit. Maybe should have reloaded, but wasn't at the screen when it bottomed again, so missed the opportunity.
All accounts at all time record levels, 98% cash or metal.
Hulbert presses his take for a continuing rally:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-gain-suggests-rally-has-legs-2010-07-14
I see this at the gaming tables all the time. Six blacks in a row? Bet on black for the next six spins.
In fact, I posted my 'black swan' experience with 'seven outs' a few months back. The smart move was to bet against the shooter for 2 hours straight.
2nd - Who sings this?
ReplyDeleteBy the way, does anything get more discretionary than spending on Hotels?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Marriott-2ndqtr-profit-apf-2125403385.html?x=0&.v=6
Paul Stookey of Peter, Paul and Mary. Here's a live performance by Paul.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1v84WKC6Pg
I like your bear trap scenario, where we drop to 1070 to set the trap, then rally to 1150.
ReplyDeleteThose of you who may have gotten trapped last week- I would use any spike down to 1070 to get the hell out.
Two excerpts from Hulbert worth noting for those of you too lazy to read the link:
ReplyDelete"Another indication of the stock market's recent momentum: Two of the last six trading sessions have been so-called "9-to-1 up days." These are sessions in which the ratio of the trading volume of rising issues to that of declining issues on the New York Stock Exchange is at least 9 to 1. The volume ratio for July 7 was an impressive 21 to 1, while Tuesday's ratio was 12 to 1. "
On the other hand,
"To be sure, there have been lots of other "9-to-1 up days" in recent months -- so many, in fact, that they appear to have lost some of the bullish significance that they used to carry. There were five such days, for example, over the month ending June 10, and yet the stock market was nevertheless weak over the subsequent three weeks. ( Read Jun. 10 commentary about 9-to-1 up days.)
"Furthermore, as Dan Sullivan, editor of The Chartist, pointed out Tuesday evening, the stock market is now overbought. So we should by no means expect the market not to face headwinds in coming sessions."
21-to-1 up day last Wednesday? I can't recall my trades from July 7, but the title of my lead post gives me an idea.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, if we drop to 1070, which would be a -2.3% move: then based on Hulbert's research, we could move the buy-and-hold into the SPX and reasonably expect a [1.2% + 2.3%]=3.5% move over the following month. Not a bad return.
ReplyDelete2nd- At least for now, I've kinda decided to scale into long positions at these levels...Or lower hopefully. 20% long right now.
ReplyDeleteDavid- TK's most recent post re the positioning of his port:
ReplyDelete"I remain completely short, although I have scaled back so I am only about 95% committed (e.g. I am not using any margin at all; I had "peaked" this month at about 150% committed). I have a huge variety of short positions, and if you looked at all of them, they'd probably fall neatly into about five different categories of rationale as to why I think they're going lower."
Quick check of the futures....I guess no one's even going to fart before the GDP #'s from China tonight.
ReplyDeleteDude I used to play comp. softball with has made it to the money round of the 2010 WSOP. Worst case right now he walks with 25K.
ReplyDelete2nd - my dad is a huge PPM fan. I am too. My folks grew up as big folk singer fans. They played together in bars...my mom had a great voice and my dad was/is an excellent guitarist.
ReplyDeleteMark - that's pretty cool. What's his name? One of my friends on my old softball team also does the WSOP every year. He won a satellite tournament earlier this year and walked away with over $300k.
ReplyDelete2nd - I started looking at the whole +/-3% on the 200 DMA and how it does in sideways moving markets, which is what I thought we would be entering going into 2010 and it doesn't work. So if it turns out being like this for 2010 to 2011 with 950 to 1000 on the low side and 1250 on the high side then I think it makes sense to just be buying low and selling higher and repeating it. So that's why I think we should have been buying dips like we just had and forgetting about the whole 200 DMA thing
ReplyDeleteTOF- I just found this on the Web. A photo from yesterday at the tourny...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/YzNmMzVmOG
"does anything get more discretionary than spending on Hotels?"
ReplyDeleteI don't know, air travel maybe???
ES ran 7 pts. on China data that came back as expected. Just pulled back 2 pts.
ReplyDeleteLooks like they are turning up the pressure on the well head. I can't get enough of this shit.
ReplyDeleteECU has just released the first piece of news the company rep told me about a few weeks ago: sale of their gold/pyrite concentrate.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/ECU-Silver-Enters-into-ccn-1248937684.html?x=0&.v=1
I'll call them tomorrow and try to find out the price per ton at which they are selling this stuff. The price is probably not that great, since the stock did not rocket today. However, the important thing would be to find out whether they can generate 500K/month from it, so as to cover the debt payments that will start happening in November. If that will be the case, then ECU is "out of the woods" and it is just a matter of time before they ramp up their production sufficiently and get a positive cash flow.
"POSCO (PKX) is mulling issuing dollar denominated global bonds in order to raise approximately KRW 1 trillion ($831 million), which would be used for acquisitions and to boost liquidity, according to industry sources"
ReplyDeleteAnd...
"POSCO (PKX) reported earnings results for the second quarter ended June 2010. For the quarter, the company's net profit had almost tripled to KRW 1.19 trillion ($981 million) due to price rises and growing demand. The April-June figure compares with a net profit of KRW 431 billion in the second quarter of 2009. Sales jumped 25% to KRW 7.93 trillion over the same period and operating profit surged to KRW 1.84 trillion from KRW 170 billion."
A steelmaker thinking about further acquisitions and making healthy profits doesn't sound like a corporation with prospects in decline to me.
FUQI - Kinda looks like it's gonna rally into earnings on the 16th, doesn't it???
ReplyDeletemark - where are you watching the well head thing? what does it mean if they turn up the well head pressure?
ReplyDeletecheck out this guy Lee from JP Morgan...he has a 1,300 year end target on S&P. if the markets follow the 1998 markets, then that is definitely possible. see the editors video picks:
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/?b=0
for what its worth on this lee guy:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.davemanuel.com/2008/08/07/jpmorgan-chase-cos-thomas-lee-stocks-will-rise-much-higher-by-end-of-2008/
this guy is sticking it to Cara:
ReplyDeleteINTC newSubmitted by London (123 comments) on Wed, 07/14/2010 - 21:12 #65762
I don't get how one can take credit with all the INTC quotes, yet at same time proclaim to be in cash as of Friday and miss the rally this week.
A quote from Hussman:
ReplyDelete"As I've noted in the past, the most dangerous point in the stock market is where the Market Climate is negative and stocks have cleared an oversold condition, because it opens the potential for nearly vertical declines."
Maybe we get such a vertical decline now -- who knows? I have just placed a buy stop limit order at $21.40/21.50 for 1000 shares of TWM, so as to re-enter it at exactly the same price at which I got stopped out a few days ago.
I certainly hope that stocks stay at the current level for a couple more days, so that my short positions in July $9 UCO puts and in July $19 PXP puts go to 0. After that, the market can decline all it wants.
JPM profits 'surge,' up 76%...futes jump...
ReplyDeleteSmall position in TZA @ 33.85...
ReplyDeleteTZA- Set a limit sell @ 34.18 before leaving for work, and it filled...
ReplyDeleteNot talking about a lot of money, of course. A little over a hundred...
Landry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
The market ended flat. It once again looks like it has run out of steam in this short-covering rally.
I know, I've said before.
I guess I'll say it again: I still think it has the potential to resume its downtrend, especially now that it is so overbought.
I am concerned about the number of sectors that have been trading sideways as of late. More on this in the chart show later today.
Best of luck with your trading today!
TLT is trading higher, which lends weight to an opening sell-off..
ReplyDeleteBC thinks we're moving higher on the back of QE2.
ReplyDeleteTOF- I watch the live feed from CNN. Looks like a leak in the new cap has developed stalling the test for now.
ReplyDeleteBought a small position in HNU.to at open at $5.38cdn.
ReplyDeleteTOF- RAS, looks like some dilution is coming in exchange for some senior debt.
ReplyDeleteTwo additional trades in FAZ (13.896/14.15 and 14.059/14.19), and I'm up $467 for the day.
ReplyDeleteThat's it, man. No need to ---- with the HFTs for the remainder of the day...
shark- Even with the sell-off, PAL is trading up ;)
ReplyDeleteCI- Major cojones, my man. NGas inventory report comes out in 33 minutes. Good luck!
ReplyDeleteMark - looks like RAS continues to pare down debt at a discount. This is a discount of about 25% or so off its par value on the debt, which is a good thing in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteJobless claims were excellent today and that's what I think people will focus on. More jobs = more demand for everything. I still think we're on the cusp of pretty significant rehiring by corporations, which is why I think we will go back up to our yearly highs again before the year is out.
Yeah I'm still in the PAL I bought yesterday. This sucker's GOTTA go up:)
ReplyDeleteTOF....another thing about the unemployment #'s....When you break them down by income and education, the joblessness is very much a blue-collar affair.....People with higher incomes and educations have very low unemployment rates....this is rarely discussed.
Adding to RAS @ 2.08...I'm not concerned about the amount of dilution, and often this is a LT plus.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Thanks. I saw your comment after posting mine. Looks like we are on he same page.
ReplyDeleteShould have held my positions longer...
ReplyDeleteShould have known opening comments by the wizard are almost always faded by the mkt..
Mother jumping frigging blodsuckers
ReplyDeleteI was actually having a good day until the Philly Fed came out. I like my positions here. Doing much better than the SPY.
ReplyDeleteAll you bulls out there- this is the mirror image of what bears had to endure the past few days...
ReplyDeleteI've got a stop set....fuckit.
ReplyDelete1/2 of my IRA in SSO @ 35.60
ReplyDeleteHere come da bounce, here come da bounce...
ReplyDeleteDo they now pounce, or down for da countz...
Those black boxes must be firing on all cylinders....
ReplyDeleteSucking bears in....or sucking bulls in?
ReplyDeleteIt's time to wake jb up, Mark. Salvation has arrived!
ReplyDeletePersonally, if I were a fully-loaded bear, I would take this opportunity to get the ---- out. Ambushed behind enemy lines and lived to tell about it.....
ReplyDeleteI don't think those choppers are going to wait around long, jb. Get out with a few grazes...you can return later to play Rambo...
ReplyDelete2nd - I still think this downturn is sucking in more bears and pushing out more bulls before making the real move. I was thinking it would go down below 1,080 to 1,070 so as to further reinforce that the market is done for.
ReplyDeleteCrossing my fingers on this call (that's always a good investment strategy) as I'm long about 75%. Will probably go all in with my longs at the close today if we stay here and use 1,060ish as a stop out.
Bidding HEK @ 4.66.
ReplyDeleteJB WAKE THE F UP PIN HEAD!!!
Nat Gas lotto spin goes my way!!!
ReplyDeleteCongrats to you and CI, Mark! HNU.to bidding around 5.78...that's a freaking 7% gain for CI in 35 minutes..
ReplyDeleteNow bidding 5.93...
ReplyDeleteYield on the 10-yr back below 3%...
ReplyDelete2nd: this is more than I expected for HNU.to. congrats to David for getting this lazy boy to do the charts on it and UNG. Now the hard part is figuring when to get out. I was looking for more than 35 minutes. I was thinking 5 to 10 days.
ReplyDeleteshark: first I want PAL to come down a bit for me to get on the train.
CI - annualize your gain and then I think you'll come to the conclusion that now is the time to get out, no?
ReplyDeleteCI- This is just my opinion, and you should feel free to ignore it. I've traded HNU.to countless times in the past. If I were holding it, I would sell immediately. That may end up being entirely the wrong thing to do, and I'm the first to admit that. But the odds are greater than 50% that NGas simply sells off again by the end of the day/tomorrow. In this mkt, I take profits when I have them. Because they disappear fast.
ReplyDeleteHaving watched Natty for far too long, after a good report, the trend stays positive for a while. No report to worry about for another week. However, a 7% return is nothing to sneeze at CI. GL.
ReplyDeleteIf it's always right to sell on euphoria, then I detect euphoria in NGas buyers right now. You can always buy it back tomorrow when NGas gets dumped in disgust. This is a very bipolar commodity.
ReplyDeleteWow...3 people looking at Natty. Good advice all around. I'd only add if the over all market firms up here, Natty and Crude should follow. For me, I'm only up 2.5% for UNG, so I'll be a little patient.
ReplyDelete2nd- That's probably the smart move.
ReplyDeleteKeep in mind that NGas prices are NOT correlated with index movements. In fact, it's just as likely to trade counter.
ReplyDeleteadded some RAS at $2.06.
ReplyDeleteSo far all the sell-off has accomplished is to work off some of the 'overbought' conditions. To the extent that's all it represents, it's a bear trap...
ReplyDeletePut in a market order and sold at $6.00 (HNU.to)
ReplyDeleteYou are right 2nd. I can't watch this all day and in 55 minutes I have a on-line Webinar with my broker on setting stops. Do you know this is my first day-trade.
Cheers guys.
HUN is very strong today considering the overall market.
ReplyDeleteYou alive Shark?? PAL is hanging in there.
For a longer term trade, PXP sure seems to have found good support.
ReplyDelete2nd - i wonder what shorts are thinking of right now. i'm trying to put myself in the mind of a short. i'd have to imagine there is some frustration that prices keep seeming to come back. obviously that could change a lot before the day is over, but over the past several trading days the market has ignored any sign of weakness. that's a lot different than the previous 2 months where any weakness was exploited and any strength was sold.
ReplyDeleteIt'll be a real tell if the market can digest today's circumstances, but good trading on the short side today fella's, I hate to make any calls at what might be a bottom or just a stop on the wat down.
ReplyDeleteThe short side currently has technical support even following recent losses.
tof- Personally, I'm thinking we get a half-rally into the close to frustrate any 'calls' either way.
ReplyDeleteBP well cap pressure test - The purpose is to test the integrity of the casing, plug the hole and see if a leak develops somewhere.
ReplyDeleteCan the casing hold the pressure? Looks like we're waiting to discover the result.
2nd - so a close of breakeven? i'm paying close attention to the action in 1998 around the russian/asian debt crisis so my vision could be clouded.
ReplyDeleteWhat I meant is we 'rally' back to half of the morning drop.
ReplyDeleteyeah...around the 1,088 level or so?
ReplyDeleteJust checking in....
ReplyDeleteshorts went short a while ago, so they are holding with stops in place and should still be ahead especially if, like Landry, they took partial profits at the downside target of 1040 or so.
Just put up the chart and draw the arrow guys.
The trend is still down.
It doesn't mean you can't throw a trade at one of the squiggles up, but like 2nd says, keep em small and ultra-short term.
Interesting disconnect between USD and GLD.
Did anyone catch BC's mistake.typo in his AM report. Is oil/PM's going higher or lower?
If you write both and speak out of both sides of your mouth you can claim anything. I can't figure out what the H he's saying half the time.
i think there's a chance we close up big...clearly i'm hoping for it but any time the market gets down to the low 1,080s it bounces right back up.
ReplyDeletei like the lower credit losses and the unemployment claims numbers and the earnings numbers. i think people will focus on those.
I see that my buy stop order for 1000 shares of TWM was executed this morning at $21.40. I also see that TWM made a nice clear bottom recently at $21.30, so instead of placing a sell stop at my entry price, I decided to place a sell stop at $21.30, so as to give it a little more room.
ReplyDeleteOn a second thought, I just sold those TWM shares at $21.39, since there seems to be a clear double bottom in stock indices on the intraday chart and I have a feeling that stocks will move higher for a little while.
ReplyDeleteI have re-placed my buy stop order for TWM at $21.40 -- I would rather catch it on the way up at the same price I exited it than staying with it during a downtrend...
ReplyDeleteGS - Must answer fraud charges by 7/19, earnings release 7/20 BMO.
ReplyDeleteDamn, I *knew* that TWM was going down, why didn't I short it instead of just exiting my position? Next time I should trust my instincts more...
ReplyDeleteThe high bids in FTFL have dropped, and it looks like I'm the current high bidder.
ReplyDeleteGo get em Mark! That spread is insane.
ReplyDeleteDamn! I got a phone call from work and in the meantime, TWM rose to $21.40, hit my buy stop order, and then dropped back! Consistent with my strategy, I had to sell it below $21.40, and by the time I found it, it was already at $21.26...
ReplyDeleteWork really interferes with trading! :)
AONE- If someone can figure out how to day trade that sucker, you'd be rich.
ReplyDeleteDavid - Your broker is getting rich off of you, no?
ReplyDeleteTWM keeps making lower lows intraday, so I just sold at $21.24 the 500 shares I picked up a couple of days ago at $20.40.
ReplyDelete500 TNA @40.40 for a day trade
ReplyDeleteSetting a stop at $40.20
ReplyDeleteBad entry... Stopped out at $40.20...
ReplyDeleteSetting another buy stop at $40.40...
ReplyDeleteOr rather $40.50...
ReplyDeleteINTC looks good, JPM almost green, GS strong. I think we go higher over the next few weeks.
ReplyDeleteBack into TNA at $40.32, sell limit at $40.52.
ReplyDeleteOK, the sell limit at $40.52 was triggered, erasing the previous loss I took on TNA when I got stopped out of it. Also, the buy stop order I placed at $40.50 was triggered, and I just set a sell stop at $40.20 for these shares.
ReplyDeleteTOF, I am doing my trading in OptionsHouse, where they are charging only $2.99 per trade. That is a reasonable price to pay in order to learn day trading, especially if every time I win/lose at least $100...
ReplyDeleteDamn! Stopped out of TNA again at $40.20, for a $150 loss. That's it for me -- its intraday chart is not looking bullish any longer, but it doesn't look that bearish either, so there is nothing much that I can do here...
ReplyDeletenewSubmitted by teamonfuego (2133 comments) on Thu, 07/15/2010 - 15:10 #65814 (in reply to #65812)
ReplyDeleteahhh..i forgot about Fin Reg today. The easy trade was for the market to go higher after it so it probably won't. That should set up the market to move higher with the fewest people on board as possible.
With all this TWM crap, I forgot to congratulate CanadianInvestor on his HNU.TO trade! I agree with 2nd_ave -- some profits in HNU.TO should be taken off the table immediately.
ReplyDeleteAs for me, a sell limit order at $5.80 was triggered today for 500 shares of HNUZF I purchased at $5.30 a couple of days ago. My next sell limit is at $6.30 for 500 shares I purchased at $5.80. UNG seems to be bounded by $7 from below, and so the right strategy for now, I think, is to scale in gradually on the way down and scale out on the way up.
I just called the ECU rep and he said that the 3rd party did not want to release the sales price for the gold pyrite concentrate, but he said that with this sales contract, their total monthly revenue now is 3M/month and their expenses are 1.5M/month. So even if they do not refinance their debt payments and do start paying 1M/month starting November, they should still have positive cashflow ASSUMING that the 3rd party will renew the contract after the initial 10000 tons of gold pyrite are sold. The rep said that there is no reason for those guys not to renew the contract, since they obviously do want this stuff. Also, he said that refinancing their debt will not be a problem, since they already have banks lined up to give them 8% annually (their current term is 12%) and a longer amortization period. The rep said that the reason they haven't refinanced yet is because they are completing the feasibility study of a new much larger sulphite mill, and if they decide that the mill will be profitable, then they'll borrow more money so as to both pay out their current debt and also buy the mill. He said that they already have people willing to lend them money for the new mill just for the promise of being the sole customers of all the output of that mill. So I guess the takeoff point for the stock will be once they announce the new debt terms and their conclusion about the new mill.
ReplyDeleteI just bought 11500 more shares of ECU.TO at CAD$0.62. Now I have 38500 shares total – my largest position...
Calculation error -- I now have 48500 shares of ECU
ReplyDeleteAdding to PXP @ 21.00.
ReplyDeleteI just covered at $0.14 the 5 August $12 calls I sold a few weeks ago on AA at $0.69, for a profit of $275. I figured that if TOF is right and the market does make a move higher, then AA will go up as well and I'll sell those calls once again at $0.69. :)
ReplyDelete$USD looks really oversold now on a 1-year chart. So there is a good case for a sharp rebound in $USD and a sharp drop in the stock market...
ReplyDeleteManic Markets newSubmitted by teamonfuego (2134 comments) on Thu, 07/15/2010 - 15:38 #65817
ReplyDeleteMan I'm glad I am not day trading this market. Thing about how manic you could have been today:
JPM Earnings beat significantly and the stock is up big...you get bullish.
Empire State Mfg Survey is bad...you get bearish.
Jobless Claims fall more than expected...you get bullish.
Industrial Production is worse than expected...you get bearish.
Fin Reg passes...you get bullish.
Action after Fin Reg is bad...you get bearish.
SEC announces a significant announcement after the close and markets rally...you get bullish.
How many people gamed this right?
I'd rather stay long like I have and lose a small amount than daytrade it and get faked out and pay a ton in commissions.
Markets are behaving pretty bullishly intraday -- the dip buyers are out in full strength...
ReplyDeleteToo bad I took my eyes of TNA -- my initial idea of trading it intraday instead of TWM was correct, but the execution was flawed...
ReplyDeleteBut then, I should be happy that I got out of all my TWM today, making a decent profit on the shares I picked up a few days ago at $20.40.
moving to 100% long at the close today. this market is very strong. i think we go up and retest the highs, as crazy as that sounds.
ReplyDeletei'm sure i'll be wrong within a day or two.
i'm envisioning a large short covering rally to clear the 200 DMA, then another good earnings season and a solid jobs report to rally us back up to the 1,200 level. there, i said it...please mock me now.
ReplyDeleteJust sold at $56.07 100 shares of MON that I picked up at $50. Booking a decent profit and letting the other 100 shares I picked up at $50 ride for a while. Once MON rises above $60, I'll sell covered calls against those 100 shares.
ReplyDeleteTOF, your intuition has a very good track record, so I am listening carefully to it. In fact, as I said before, if S&P rises above 1100 then I'll close all my SPY puts and will have only long positions at that point.
ReplyDeleteAll 3 of my trading accounts are up today, a total of 1K. So if I close my SPY puts tomorrow and the market will keep going higher, then I'll start making real money on the long side. :)
ReplyDeleteBulls are gonna be out in force tomorrow. GOOG earnings were actually pretty solid. Revenues beat...they have a ton of expenses that hurt EPS.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, just to protect the recent gains, I am once again placing a buy stop limit order for 1000 shares of TWM at $21.40/$21.50.
ReplyDeleteSimply a huge day for me. I'm inclined to protect these gains. We'll see. A lot going on right now with earnings/BP/GS, etc.
ReplyDeleteIn order to make more room in my ETrade Global Trading account for buying ECU, I removed the sell limit order I had on HNUZF in my Scottrade account and instead placed a sell limit order at $6.60 for the remaining 800 shares of HNU.TO in ETrade Global Trading.
ReplyDeleteCongrats Mark! Good to hear people are making some dough.
ReplyDeleteI'm hoping I pick up some of your luck too! I'm looking at getting back into NLS soon and my STT and PIR continue to perform well. All I need is for RAS to pick its butt off the floor. I think that one has the potential to be a multi bagger if my belief that significant jobs growth is coming soon comes to fruition.
good article on RAITs website about employment:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.raitft.com/upload/RAIT%20Expectations%20-%20Jobs%20Report%20Summer%202010.pdf
Had loaded 1/3 into DGP the other day on a pullback and sold all but 1500 sh for about $3100 profit. Maybe should have reloaded, but wasn't at the screen when it bottomed again, so missed the opportunity.
ReplyDeleteAll accounts at all time record levels, 98% cash or metal.