Yeah. I sold out yesterday....flat and wrong most of the week.
At least I was wrong about the trades I made. I was right about the trades I didn't make:)
In theory the GS settlement and the BP spill-stop should have the market up a thousand points. If it happens it will be without me, which is WHY it could happen and probably will.
GCI beat earnings again. Revenues were basically in line. FCF is now at about $300 Million per quarter. That's $1.2 Billion for the year. The company is only worth 3 times that. Valuation looks absurd to me on that. Revenues were up across the board in all segments except Real Estate (no shit!), which dragged down revenues to slightly negative versus last year.
I think this is an excellent buy. Trading at about 6 times THIS YEARs earnings and 3-4 times cash flow.
GCI has $2.3 Billion in net debt ($500 M in cash, $2.8 Billion in debt). Using this past quarter as a gauge, they will be able to pay that down in 8 quarters. After that point GCI will be able to generated 1/3 of its total worth in cash eash year. I might need to just load that boat on this and wait it out because while the price of the stock may fluctuate the underlying business will continue to make this very attractive.
Mark - I think I know what they said...publishing business is dead and the company's revenues continue to shrink? Tell me something I don't know. The fact is, though, that the company's cost structure and business model is excellent. We're still slogging through a recovery, real estate revenues are in the dumps, and yet the company's revenues were pretty much flat year over year and earnings and cash flow were excellent. Say what you will about the old world ad market, but there is definitely value in this company.
Mark - those analysts are crazy man. We went through one of the worst downturns ever and GCI continued to generate significant cash flow throughout the downturn. I know the internet is changing a lot of their businesses, creating a lot of competition. But this company is pretty easy to analyze. The company's cost structure is really low and their margins are very high so they can make a profit on very low revenues. I bet the analyst didn't say anything about all of this.
It's kinda like the media on the jobs market. No one cares to mention that the private sector has generated over 600k jobs in the past 5 months and that its typical for a slight slowdown in the beginning of a recovery before a resumption of growth. They also don't mention that job cuts far outpaced the drop in GDP, which will inevitably create a disparity that will have to be made up in the future. No one cares to do a little research.
ehh whatever. sorry about my rant. It's a Friday and I'm bullish in a downward facing dog of a market.
If they're gonna sell, then why don't they and get it over with? The volume I'm observing on my crappy longs is nearly zilch.
Funny thing is I nearly bought REW yesterday... except I just don't have any idea which way this market's gonna go from one day to the next but it's gonna go up eventually.
Bet ya the Trader Wizard went short yesterday despite what he wrote in the report. He's like GS, he always makes money. Don't believe me, just ask him!
TOF- That's a rant? :)....I hear you. My only point was they do move stocks for a few minutes while they are on. She was kinda cute, in a bear market kinda day ;)
it appears that people may be coming to their senses and realizing that GCI should be worth a little more than 2.8 times FCF, which is what it was down to when I bought.
TOF - Good work getting into GCI, I'll bet the bashers are making money alongside you.
I wonder if China isn't oversold and the real estate issue isn't overblown? I read that many apartments/dwellings in Beijing were bought by speculators and are sitting empty b/c the ROI isn't appreciably increased by having tenants.
There are no real estate taxes in most of these cities, which probably explains the construction boom. I'm thinking the government could begin to phase in real estate taxes as a means of controlling construction growth if it were excessive but the goal is to increase the standard of living by building and populating cities.
Mark - from what I've read on the China real estate market is that down payment requirements are significantly higher than in the US so the risks of negative equity are much lower.
You know, one way to 'philosophize' about these back-and-forth swings is 'No one wins every time.' The past few days bears got killed. Now it's time for bulls to take the hit. Unless you're good at timing the swings, YOU'RE GOING TO TAKE A HIT. I just accept hits as part of the game. Just remember to keep them small.
Well, 2nd you have done well this week. Pat yourself on the back for me.
The brass band is playing the funeral march today. And prices are coming to me. Maybe the band will play an upbeat tune on Monday. The skipping rope goes up and down and I am getting dizzy watching it all.
I decided to pull my stop on GCI thinking that I would be selling at the bottom of today's market drop and I'm happy holding it. My position size would probably fall under too large but I like the price I got in at and I'm happy paying 2.8 times free cash flow on this. If I had the opportunity to buy another private business for that price I would jump on it right away.
I personally don't see how the market can drop much more than 2-2.5% given that the past day's news flow was actually really positive: GS, BP, earnings beats. I think the market is talking itself into a bear market but I don't yet see justification for that. I'm probably going to wait until 1,050 or next weeks unemployment claims number to come out before getting stopped out. If the claims number is again in the 450 or under level then I think the jobs number for July will be better than expected and we will rebound from these levels. My thinking originally from a few days ago was that we would get a pullback from the 50 DMA level to juke out bulls and make bears more confident. And that would set us up for a big move higher with the fewest number of people on board...and the move would be based on jobs growth which no one is looking for now.
For what it is worth: HNU.to gave a buy signal yesterday at the close with the trading method I use. I think the next 5 days will tell if there is an entry for a swing trade on this one. Sometimes you have to be like 2nd and use that inner intuition to buy.
My list of stocks to buy is getting longer each day. I am trying to limit my opinions here on those I see in the comments.
TOF -- I would definitely set a stop on GCI at your entry price, to make sure "you don't let a profit turn into a loss." This is a Golden rule, and its net effect has been very positive on my positions since I started using it. If GCI reaches your entry price, it will probably go below it, and so if you get stopped out at $13.55, you'll be able to place a buy stop order at that same price and re-enter if GCI starts going up again.
Alexander Elder said in his classic book that amateurs buy stocks like lottery tickets: they buy and hope for the best, while professionals take several shots at an idea before they finally nail it.
As an example of Elder's method, I opened a large position in TWM at $22 a few days ago, thinking the market can make a near vertical drop if Hussman's warnings materialize. I set a stop for that position and got stopped out at $21.40. Next day, TWM was bidding at $20.40 after hours and I bought some at that price (sold it yesterday at $21.20), and I also set a buy stop for my original position at $21.40. This morning, that stop order was triggered and I repurchased TWM at exactly the same price at which I got stopped out. This is a much less risky strategy than just holding TWM. The market could have rocketed today and kept moving to new highs, and my large TWM position would have taken a MAJOR hit. Instead, I saved myself the pain of watching it drop below $21.40 and now I am back in it without any interim pain.
TOF, the same think might happen with GCI. In fact, if by some luck (on your side) GCI drops down to 10 after you get stopped out, you'll be able to place a buy stop at a lower level and re-enter at a better price!
The 10-year T-yield is below 2.95% today, which suggests that this might not be a simple pullback in stocks on the way to 1150, but in fact a beginning of a near vertical drop that often happen when markets become overbought during a downtrend...
It is nice to see WATG above $7.50 today. It looks like the following July puts I wrote in late May to June period will go to 0 today:
5 WATG $7.50, which I wrote for a total of $250 10 WATG $5, which I wrote for a total of $250 2 UCO $9, which I wrote for a total of $190 2 PXP $19, which I wrote for a total of $190
and also 8 July UNG covered calls, which I wrote for a total of $400.
The absolute amounts are not important here, it is the percentage return on the collateral that counts, which was at least 5% per month in all cases.
So if any of you feel like you want to give up on the day trading business, consider going into the option writing business, where the annualized returns are still pretty decent. :)
I used to be short 1000 shares of XLF in my long-term trading account, which I covered at $14.28 last week. I have just re-opened that short at $14.20, placing a buy to cover stop limit at $14.40/$14.50. Looks like XLF just did a small dead cat bounce off the $14 support level, and if it breaks below it, I think it will stay below for good.
Let me try to do some day trading in the direction of the trend. Placing a buy stop order on 500 shares of TZA at $38.83, just above its high for the day, so as to ride it a little in the event of a breakout to new highs.
The buy limit order for 300 TZA at $36.60 was hit. Now placing a buy limit for another 300 at $38.40, and when that gets triggered, I'll place a sell stop for all my TZA at $38.19, the support level between 12:30 and 1:30 EST.
TZA just went on a moonshot, and so I just sold at $38.92 the 300 shares I picked up at $38.60, for a $100 gain. That's enough to justify a trip to BevMo in the afternoon, especially since I got a card from them this morning with a 5% discount coupon for any purchase. That was the call of duty on their part. :) I am canceling my buy limit at $38.40 for TZA and switching to my day job. Good luck guys the rest of the day!
David - I did manage to put a stop on my GCI after seeing it was going to go back down to where it started from. I was stopped out at $13.69. That amounted to a decent $320 gain after commissions, far less than I should have sold at but didn't because of my stubborness. Unfortunately, that doesn't offset my longs in SPY, PIR, STT, and particularly RAS.
The market is definitely weaker than I thought it would get but then again I was thinking that SPY was going to drop back down to 1,070 before resuming its uptrend just to shake enough people out and to get even more Sally come lately shorts to the party. Will this happen? Who knows. I'm going to stick by my gut feeling originally and put stops around the 1,050 area in relation to all of my positions and see what happens. I don't think earnings have been bad and I still think we're going to get significant jobs growth in the next few months much to the chagrin of bears.
Today could very well prove to be the shakeout day in a rally that is destined to go above 1100 on S&P. So to protect today's profits in TWM, I am placing staggered sell stops: at $22.50 for 500 shares and at $22 for 500 shares.
i made a mistake...GCI is actually trading at 2.6 times FCF if you use this quarter's FCF run rate. As such I hopped back into the stock at 13.55...full position
I have just converted 10K from my US Etrade account into my Canadian account (taking advantage of today's drop in CAD:USD), and then bought 11500 shares of ECU at CAD$0.6, bumping up my total position to 60000 shares.
CP- OK...keep at least one cold beer for me upon my return. Yesterday I agreed to meet some new clients today @ 5:00. Didn't realize today is Friday...I do now :(
Mark, with ECU I am not buying a stock (contrary to Bill's admonition to trade prices, not companies), but rather I am buying a part of the company, like Buffett suggests. Let's see whose approach will ultimately prevail: Bill's or Buffett's. :) In this crazy stock market, buying a part of a good company might be an easier way of making money than fighting the hedge funds for each dollar of a stock price.
VB: you can open a global trading account online through ETrade. If you are not sure how to do it, call them up and a rep will guide you through the process.
David: You are scaring me here with ECU.to. You are playing with big numbers here. End of May I went in with a similar position for a spin in GIX.to (Geologic Exploration); one from the CC. I can not help but see a similar chart. I am so tempted to move out of GIX into ECU with you. I remember my previous target of $0.595 on this one. I have to ponder this one over the weekend.
heading out to see the place where i might be getting married. eff this market! although the further it goes down the better the odds are of a shotgun wedding in vegas, so long as i stay long!
CanadianInvestor: what prompted you to get into GIX.to at the end of May? Did Bill say anything interesting about it?
My position in ECU is only 15% of my portfolio now, so I am planning to keep buying it if it goes down or if it stays flat for another month (which would be indication that only the strong hands are in ECU now, which are not getting shaken out by any market developments and are just waiting for the company to become profitable). I believe Kaimu had 100's of thousands of shares of ECU in 2008...
Guys, did you notice that the previous reading of the ECRI WLI growth index was revised down to -9.1%, and the most recent reading came in at -9.8%. I am shocked! I was sure we'll get a better reading this week, since both the stock market and the Treasury yields (which are part of the ECRI WLI) were up the week before. I guess the *real* economic components are accelerating their rate of decay.
In the light of the ECRI WLI growth index, I am removing my stops on TWM. The US economy is going in for a double dip recession, and the stock market always falls big in a recession. I'll place stops on this TWM position once S&P becomes oversold once again (say below 950).
David: I can't remember that far back but I believe Geologix was one that both Bill and Kaimu had a interest in. I have met the geolgists at PDAC over the past few years and I did get the feeling that they were just floating and waiting for something (I don't know what). It got caught up with the melt-down with all the juniors. I had a very small position in this from a long time ago and even though it went 'melt-down' I held as it was a very small positon (about 4% of what I now own) and I did not think it would go bankrupt, so I just held it. If I could go back, I would have sold it as it was going down.
I think Bill has frozen in giving any output in this area as he is busy managing portfolios these days. He has been taking a long time to put out his junior gold report and it would be interesting to see what he is watching now. I think the report will have a smaller universe of stocks than what he said he would report on.
There is still a lot of hesitation with these juniors. But I think the junior area has finally turned around. Dr Costa always goes on about the junior golds, but I differ with him in his outlook. Nothing wrong with that. We all have opinions. I like that GIX is in Mexico and Canada. They might not go into production, but they might do a deal with a partner.
A couple of things brought back GIX to my attention in May 2010. First, it made a move up in January 2010, showing me there was still some life in this one. Second it came back down to a higher support area in May. Volume is also something that peaks my interest. April 16, 2010's high volume pushed this stock into my stock watch list. This stock had been range bound slowly moving up since March 2009, which was where the stock market itself pulled itself up from the low.
Lastly, I have a trading system that I am using. I track bullishness in a stock and it gave bullish signals (2010) early March, end of April, end of May (2 bullish days) and first week of June. I was watching level 2 quotes on this one and bought a small position that came to me. Later in the day someone put up a block of shares at the ask 4 times as large as what I bought earlier. I immediately put in a market order to take that block.
I don't have enough recent data on the current move up. If I do projection then near-term fair value is $0.24cdn. Longer-term (35 days?) $0.34cdn (lol).
I am not sure where GIX goes from here. I should sell half and take some profit as this stock could go down as fast as it goes up. If I am honest with myself, I did get a sell signal earlier this month as there was a bearish move. As I said before, the hard part for me is the sell.
Also, I only try to look at a few stocks and become very studied in the action and moves with them.
CanadianInvestor: I also traded GIX in 2008-2009, ending up with 5000 shares at the cost of about $1.50. Then they got screwed over and the property they were mining was taken away from them, as they couldn't borrow enough money to buy it out. After that, they were left with just a good team of people and cash in the bank equivalent to $0.14/share. I glanced at the news recently and saw that they got into some joint venture again, but I don't know the terms. I also don't know how much cash they have in the bank now. If I were you, I would call them up and ask them all these questions.
I think this time the Fed and Govt try to prevent the market from repeating the 2nd crash of the depression, and to do so they will need to make a sacrifice of the dollar, like Roosevelt did in 1933/34. They are trying to let it down slowly anyway, but I think their next move will accelerates the drop in the dollar's value, much like the Euro became unwanted after PIIGS debt started getting stinky, and instead of the dollar being the safe haven it has been in times of crisis, it will crash, and gold will take its place in that regard.
You can only run the same play so many times before your opposition figures out a way to turn it to their favor.
PS: Every day it becomes more obvious that Keynesian Economics doesn't work like it was expected to, and is dependent on ever increasing debt in the system to cause growth, which does't seem to happen once overall leverage gets to scary levels.
I will throw out the idea that any real recovery won't even start till Keynesians are completely discredited, and their policies are replaced by sane ones starting with instead, sound money. I wonder how many years or decades it will take for them to admit they were and are completely wrong about economics.
I think you are right, cheapy. The reason why $USD was falling over the past 1.5 months while the ECRI WLI growth index was also going down is probably because the smart currency traders have figured out that in order to get us out of the second recession the Fed will try to print even more money...
Guys - I think we may be over reacting based on 1 bad day's worth of trading, no? I mean, 8 days ago we were at 1,011. Let's keep things in perspective until we know for sure we're going down, which would be on a close below 1,020.
Yeah. I sold out yesterday....flat and wrong most of the week.
ReplyDeleteAt least I was wrong about the trades I made. I was right about the trades I didn't make:)
In theory the GS settlement and the BP spill-stop should have the market up a thousand points. If it happens it will be without me, which is WHY it could happen and probably will.
GCI beat earnings again. Revenues were basically in line. FCF is now at about $300 Million per quarter. That's $1.2 Billion for the year. The company is only worth 3 times that. Valuation looks absurd to me on that. Revenues were up across the board in all segments except Real Estate (no shit!), which dragged down revenues to slightly negative versus last year.
ReplyDeleteI think this is an excellent buy. Trading at about 6 times THIS YEARs earnings and 3-4 times cash flow.
bought DGP during panic in PM
ReplyDeleteWasn't last OPEX flat as hell? Watching BAC of course.
ReplyDeleteLong GCI at $13.55. This valuation is absurd.
ReplyDeleteWatch 14.23 for BAC.
ReplyDeleteTLT trading flat, which may signal limited downside?
ReplyDeleteTOF- Great entry if nothing else.
ReplyDeleteStink bid for V @ 69.86.
ReplyDeleteC back to 4.
ReplyDeleteGCI has $2.3 Billion in net debt ($500 M in cash, $2.8 Billion in debt). Using this past quarter as a gauge, they will be able to pay that down in 8 quarters. After that point GCI will be able to generated 1/3 of its total worth in cash eash year. I might need to just load that boat on this and wait it out because while the price of the stock may fluctuate the underlying business will continue to make this very attractive.
ReplyDeleteTOF- I think they said they are going to talk about GCI on CNBC.
ReplyDeleteWhat's the 'news' on GCI? Stocks don't get dumped -9% for no reason.
ReplyDeleteTOF- It's on now.
ReplyDeleteSorry, guys. I can't say I believe they buy this dip. I think they sell this dip.
ReplyDelete2nd - 'Overvalued' & 'Dead Money' is what I'm hearing in the cnbc interview
ReplyDeleteMark - I think I know what they said...publishing business is dead and the company's revenues continue to shrink? Tell me something I don't know. The fact is, though, that the company's cost structure and business model is excellent. We're still slogging through a recovery, real estate revenues are in the dumps, and yet the company's revenues were pretty much flat year over year and earnings and cash flow were excellent. Say what you will about the old world ad market, but there is definitely value in this company.
ReplyDelete2nd- I'm mainly in BGZ but thought I would try a little BGU countertrend. Not working out too well so far.
ReplyDeleteI'm gonna go out on a limb here....red close:)
ReplyDeleteTOF- Pretty close :)
ReplyDeleteIt's jb's turn. We go down.
ReplyDeleteDip buyers here?? Someone gobbled up $700 in losses for me. I'm kinda leaning towards a 50% retracement. Say 1085ish?
ReplyDeleteMark - those analysts are crazy man. We went through one of the worst downturns ever and GCI continued to generate significant cash flow throughout the downturn. I know the internet is changing a lot of their businesses, creating a lot of competition. But this company is pretty easy to analyze. The company's cost structure is really low and their margins are very high so they can make a profit on very low revenues. I bet the analyst didn't say anything about all of this.
ReplyDeleteIt's kinda like the media on the jobs market. No one cares to mention that the private sector has generated over 600k jobs in the past 5 months and that its typical for a slight slowdown in the beginning of a recovery before a resumption of growth. They also don't mention that job cuts far outpaced the drop in GDP, which will inevitably create a disparity that will have to be made up in the future. No one cares to do a little research.
ehh whatever. sorry about my rant. It's a Friday and I'm bullish in a downward facing dog of a market.
2nd-Ha!! Look at the time stamp of our comments :)..GL JB!!!
ReplyDeleteIf they're gonna sell, then why don't they and get it over with? The volume I'm observing on my crappy longs is nearly zilch.
ReplyDeleteFunny thing is I nearly bought REW yesterday... except I just don't have any idea which way this market's gonna go from one day to the next but it's gonna go up eventually.
Bet ya the Trader Wizard went short yesterday despite what he wrote in the report. He's like GS, he always makes money. Don't believe me, just ask him!
TOF- That's a rant? :)....I hear you. My only point was they do move stocks for a few minutes while they are on. She was kinda cute, in a bear market kinda day ;)
ReplyDeleteV/BAC headed in opposite directions. I might try to scalp BAC @ 14.23.
ReplyDeleteXIN - I've added this to my watch list, another one trading below book and a hair under cash on hand.
ReplyDeleteSure, China's gonna go off the cliff due to excessive debt levels!!!
Mark appreciates hairy women?
ReplyDeleteXIN- Very nice double bottom @ room 222.
ReplyDeleteNoooooooo.....
ReplyDeleteCome on BAC....
ReplyDeleteBAC @ 14.23
ReplyDeleteit appears that people may be coming to their senses and realizing that GCI should be worth a little more than 2.8 times FCF, which is what it was down to when I bought.
ReplyDeleteWATG is green.
ReplyDeleteMy energy stocks are coming back nicely.
ReplyDeleteBAC off @ 14.33 for 2 hundy.
chicken - i've been following WATG for a while now. it's been doing quite well lately.
ReplyDeleteGCI appears to be gaining strength now.
setting stop on GCI at $14. my position size is too big on this one to not take a profit.
ReplyDeletesmart trends says we are heading back to 9500
ReplyDeleteTOF - Good work getting into GCI, I'll bet the bashers are making money alongside you.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if China isn't oversold and the real estate issue isn't overblown? I read that many apartments/dwellings in Beijing were bought by speculators and are sitting empty b/c the ROI isn't appreciably increased by having tenants.
There are no real estate taxes in most of these cities, which probably explains the construction boom. I'm thinking the government could begin to phase in real estate taxes as a means of controlling construction growth if it were excessive but the goal is to increase the standard of living by building and populating cities.
Good luck guys. I'll see you at the close.
ReplyDeleteMark - from what I've read on the China real estate market is that down payment requirements are significantly higher than in the US so the risks of negative equity are much lower.
ReplyDelete----! All the ultrashorts I gave away yesterday are rockets today.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, had I held them overnight, it would have been hard to sleep.
That's the nature of this game, man.
Bottom line- I averaged about $200/day this week. Good enough.
No trades today.
Moved my stop on GCI down to 13.95 just in case they dip it to $14 to take out stops.
ReplyDelete-200 on the DJIA...
ReplyDeleteFunny how the media seems to focus on the micro economy, where's the macro focus?
ReplyDeleteGot an email today on the 'death cross'. Give me a break.
ReplyDeleteOkay, the greater authority on the market, through the media, is making this a 'FUD' day for J6P. I am sitting out for now.
Sitting out can be fun when the market's selling off ;)
ReplyDeleteBAC - Got spanked pretty hard so far.
ReplyDeleteYou know, one way to 'philosophize' about these back-and-forth swings is 'No one wins every time.' The past few days bears got killed. Now it's time for bulls to take the hit. Unless you're good at timing the swings, YOU'RE GOING TO TAKE A HIT. I just accept hits as part of the game. Just remember to keep them small.
ReplyDeleteWell, 2nd you have done well this week. Pat yourself on the back for me.
ReplyDeleteThe brass band is playing the funeral march today. And prices are coming to me. Maybe the band will play an upbeat tune on Monday. The skipping rope goes up and down and I am getting dizzy watching it all.
I decided to pull my stop on GCI thinking that I would be selling at the bottom of today's market drop and I'm happy holding it. My position size would probably fall under too large but I like the price I got in at and I'm happy paying 2.8 times free cash flow on this. If I had the opportunity to buy another private business for that price I would jump on it right away.
ReplyDeleteI personally don't see how the market can drop much more than 2-2.5% given that the past day's news flow was actually really positive: GS, BP, earnings beats. I think the market is talking itself into a bear market but I don't yet see justification for that. I'm probably going to wait until 1,050 or next weeks unemployment claims number to come out before getting stopped out. If the claims number is again in the 450 or under level then I think the jobs number for July will be better than expected and we will rebound from these levels. My thinking originally from a few days ago was that we would get a pullback from the 50 DMA level to juke out bulls and make bears more confident. And that would set us up for a big move higher with the fewest number of people on board...and the move would be based on jobs growth which no one is looking for now.
For what it is worth: HNU.to gave a buy signal yesterday at the close with the trading method I use. I think the next 5 days will tell if there is an entry for a swing trade on this one. Sometimes you have to be like 2nd and use that inner intuition to buy.
ReplyDeleteMy list of stocks to buy is getting longer each day. I am trying to limit my opinions here on those I see in the comments.
A positive indicator for me would be a SPY close above $107.60
ReplyDeleteditto cp
ReplyDeleteSold the dip today and trying to figure out how to get back on that faz train. Maybe if market bounces on monday? I am holding a little QID -
Don't plan to go long before 9500
TOF -- I would definitely set a stop on GCI at your entry price, to make sure "you don't let a profit turn into a loss." This is a Golden rule, and its net effect has been very positive on my positions since I started using it. If GCI reaches your entry price, it will probably go below it, and so if you get stopped out at $13.55, you'll be able to place a buy stop order at that same price and re-enter if GCI starts going up again.
ReplyDeleteAlexander Elder said in his classic book that amateurs buy stocks like lottery tickets: they buy and hope for the best, while professionals take several shots at an idea before they finally nail it.
As an example of Elder's method, I opened a large position in TWM at $22 a few days ago, thinking the market can make a near vertical drop if Hussman's warnings materialize. I set a stop for that position and got stopped out at $21.40. Next day, TWM was bidding at $20.40 after hours and I bought some at that price (sold it yesterday at $21.20), and I also set a buy stop for my original position at $21.40. This morning, that stop order was triggered and I repurchased TWM at exactly the same price at which I got stopped out. This is a much less risky strategy than just holding TWM. The market could have rocketed today and kept moving to new highs, and my large TWM position would have taken a MAJOR hit. Instead, I saved myself the pain of watching it drop below $21.40 and now I am back in it without any interim pain.
ReplyDeleteTOF, the same think might happen with GCI. In fact, if by some luck (on your side) GCI drops down to 10 after you get stopped out, you'll be able to place a buy stop at a lower level and re-enter at a better price!
I just set a sell stop order at $22 for the 1000 shares of TWM I picked up this morning at $21.40.
ReplyDeleteThe 10-year T-yield is below 2.95% today, which suggests that this might not be a simple pullback in stocks on the way to 1150, but in fact a beginning of a near vertical drop that often happen when markets become overbought during a downtrend...
ReplyDeleteIt is nice to see WATG above $7.50 today. It looks like the following July puts I wrote in late May to June period will go to 0 today:
ReplyDelete5 WATG $7.50, which I wrote for a total of $250
10 WATG $5, which I wrote for a total of $250
2 UCO $9, which I wrote for a total of $190
2 PXP $19, which I wrote for a total of $190
and also 8 July UNG covered calls, which I wrote for a total of $400.
The absolute amounts are not important here, it is the percentage return on the collateral that counts, which was at least 5% per month in all cases.
So if any of you feel like you want to give up on the day trading business, consider going into the option writing business, where the annualized returns are still pretty decent. :)
hey boys - still holding my shorts from the other day, i'm still a tad underwater, but todays action is helping!
ReplyDeleteI'm still negative on techs, actually more so than fin ser.
Way to go, David! I prefer 'painless' trading myself, when possible ;)
ReplyDeleteTG, jb. I thought maybe we lost you to 'the bottle.'
ReplyDeleteWelcome back.
thx 2nd! although my goal in life is to one day have all the family taken care of so I CAN get lost in the bottle....either that or a demerol drip.
ReplyDeleteI used to be short 1000 shares of XLF in my long-term trading account, which I covered at $14.28 last week. I have just re-opened that short at $14.20, placing a buy to cover stop limit at $14.40/$14.50. Looks like XLF just did a small dead cat bounce off the $14 support level, and if it breaks below it, I think it will stay below for good.
ReplyDeleteOK, David. Keep stomping on that cat, alright?
ReplyDeleteLet me try to do some day trading in the direction of the trend. Placing a buy stop order on 500 shares of TZA at $38.83, just above its high for the day, so as to ride it a little in the event of a breakout to new highs.
ReplyDeleteAlso, placing a buy limit order on 300 shares of TZA at $38.60.
ReplyDeleteI see some smarty pants tried to jump my FTFL order. OK, now bidding at 6.28.
ReplyDeleteThis is the most boring sell off I can remember. Actually not getting as creamed as I thought looking at the SPY on my phone.
ReplyDeleteWay to hang tough bro. My C short would be in the money right now.
Hey boy!!...come on pup, come here FTWR....
ReplyDeleteThe buy limit order for 300 TZA at $36.60 was hit. Now placing a buy limit for another 300 at $38.40, and when that gets triggered, I'll place a sell stop for all my TZA at $38.19, the support level between 12:30 and 1:30 EST.
ReplyDeleteTBT should be about 20 bucks right now.
ReplyDeleteTZA just went on a moonshot, and so I just sold at $38.92 the 300 shares I picked up at $38.60, for a $100 gain. That's enough to justify a trip to BevMo in the afternoon, especially since I got a card from them this morning with a 5% discount coupon for any purchase. That was the call of duty on their part. :) I am canceling my buy limit at $38.40 for TZA and switching to my day job. Good luck guys the rest of the day!
ReplyDeleteDavid - I did manage to put a stop on my GCI after seeing it was going to go back down to where it started from. I was stopped out at $13.69. That amounted to a decent $320 gain after commissions, far less than I should have sold at but didn't because of my stubborness. Unfortunately, that doesn't offset my longs in SPY, PIR, STT, and particularly RAS.
ReplyDeleteThe market is definitely weaker than I thought it would get but then again I was thinking that SPY was going to drop back down to 1,070 before resuming its uptrend just to shake enough people out and to get even more Sally come lately shorts to the party. Will this happen? Who knows. I'm going to stick by my gut feeling originally and put stops around the 1,050 area in relation to all of my positions and see what happens. I don't think earnings have been bad and I still think we're going to get significant jobs growth in the next few months much to the chagrin of bears.
$2 to go until TNA/SSO pps crosses. Good place to go long?
ReplyDeleteFree iphone casees to improve reception - rally into close!
ReplyDeletethis could end up being a scary last hour....going to hold the shorts, again, as I can't see any "good news" coming over the weekend.
ReplyDeleteToday could very well prove to be the shakeout day in a rally that is destined to go above 1100 on S&P. So to protect today's profits in TWM, I am placing staggered sell stops: at $22.50 for 500 shares and at $22 for 500 shares.
ReplyDeleteUnder 10,100....
ReplyDeletejb- After what you've been through, I'm not about to second-guess you...
ReplyDeletei made a mistake...GCI is actually trading at 2.6 times FCF if you use this quarter's FCF run rate. As such I hopped back into the stock at 13.55...full position
ReplyDeleteYou guys suck. Every time I leave and come back, another 10pts. are clipped off.
ReplyDeleteI still like my positions here. I'll post an update tonight, but most are only off a few %.
GS cuts price target on PXP to 26 from 28.
ReplyDeletejeez...remind me again why i decided to go long? this has to be the most manic market in a while.
ReplyDeleteMark - You left no instructions, while you're gone we're doing our own thing here.
ReplyDeleteI'm way net long too TOF, so I feel your pain. only bright spots for me are REW and FAZ (FAZ is up 11% TODAY...how nuts is that).
ReplyDeletemaybe i'll just toss up my hands and find me a nice cold beverage!
I have just converted 10K from my US Etrade account into my Canadian account (taking advantage of today's drop in CAD:USD), and then bought 11500 shares of ECU at CAD$0.6, bumping up my total position to 60000 shares.
ReplyDeletehi david, very good, how did you open a canadian account to make that move?
ReplyDeleteCP- OK...keep at least one cold beer for me upon my return. Yesterday I agreed to meet some new clients today @ 5:00. Didn't realize today is Friday...I do now :(
ReplyDeleteDavid- I wish you the best with ECU. I don't think I could ever commit that much capital to a little co. like that. Go baby!!!!
ReplyDeleteMark, with ECU I am not buying a stock (contrary to Bill's admonition to trade prices, not companies), but rather I am buying a part of the company, like Buffett suggests. Let's see whose approach will ultimately prevail: Bill's or Buffett's. :) In this crazy stock market, buying a part of a good company might be an easier way of making money than fighting the hedge funds for each dollar of a stock price.
ReplyDeleteVB: you can open a global trading account online through ETrade. If you are not sure how to do it, call them up and a rep will guide you through the process.
David: You are scaring me here with ECU.to. You are playing with big numbers here. End of May I went in with a similar position for a spin in GIX.to (Geologic Exploration); one from the CC. I can not help but see a similar chart. I am so tempted to move out of GIX into ECU with you. I remember my previous target of $0.595 on this one. I have to ponder this one over the weekend.
ReplyDeleteheading out to see the place where i might be getting married. eff this market! although the further it goes down the better the odds are of a shotgun wedding in vegas, so long as i stay long!
ReplyDeleteMark - Be sure to brush your hair and tuck your shirt in, good luck with your meeting.
ReplyDeleteCanadianInvestor: what prompted you to get into GIX.to at the end of May? Did Bill say anything interesting about it?
ReplyDeleteMy position in ECU is only 15% of my portfolio now, so I am planning to keep buying it if it goes down or if it stays flat for another month (which would be indication that only the strong hands are in ECU now, which are not getting shaken out by any market developments and are just waiting for the company to become profitable). I believe Kaimu had 100's of thousands of shares of ECU in 2008...
Guys, did you notice that the previous reading of the ECRI WLI growth index was revised down to -9.1%, and the most recent reading came in at -9.8%. I am shocked! I was sure we'll get a better reading this week, since both the stock market and the Treasury yields (which are part of the ECRI WLI) were up the week before. I guess the *real* economic components are accelerating their rate of decay.
ReplyDeleteIn the light of the ECRI WLI growth index, I am removing my stops on TWM. The US economy is going in for a double dip recession, and the stock market always falls big in a recession. I'll place stops on this TWM position once S&P becomes oversold once again (say below 950).
ReplyDeleteDavid: I can't remember that far back but I believe Geologix was one that both Bill and Kaimu had a interest in. I have met the geolgists at PDAC over the past few years and I did get the feeling that they were just floating and waiting for something (I don't know what). It got caught up with the melt-down with all the juniors. I had a very small position in this from a long time ago and even though it went 'melt-down' I held as it was a very small positon (about 4% of what I now own) and I did not think it would go bankrupt, so I just held it. If I could go back, I would have sold it as it was going down.
ReplyDeleteI think Bill has frozen in giving any output in this area as he is busy managing portfolios these days. He has been taking a long time to put out his junior gold report and it would be interesting to see what he is watching now. I think the report will have a smaller universe of stocks than what he said he would report on.
There is still a lot of hesitation with these juniors. But I think the junior area has finally turned around. Dr Costa always goes on about the junior golds, but I differ with him in his outlook. Nothing wrong with that. We all have opinions. I like that GIX is in Mexico and Canada. They might not go into production, but they might do a deal with a partner.
A couple of things brought back GIX to my attention in May 2010. First, it made a move up in January 2010, showing me there was still some life in this one. Second it came back down to a higher support area in May. Volume is also something that peaks my interest. April 16, 2010's high volume pushed this stock into my stock watch list. This stock had been range bound slowly moving up since March 2009, which was where the stock market itself pulled itself up from the low.
Lastly, I have a trading system that I am using. I track bullishness in a stock and it gave bullish signals (2010) early March, end of April, end of May (2 bullish days) and first week of June. I was watching level 2 quotes on this one and bought a small position that came to me. Later in the day someone put up a block of shares at the ask 4 times as large as what I bought earlier. I immediately put in a market order to take that block.
I don't have enough recent data on the current move up. If I do projection then near-term fair value is $0.24cdn. Longer-term (35 days?) $0.34cdn (lol).
I am not sure where GIX goes from here. I should sell half and take some profit as this stock could go down as fast as it goes up. If I am honest with myself, I did get a sell signal earlier this month as there was a bearish move. As I said before, the hard part for me is the sell.
Also, I only try to look at a few stocks and become very studied in the action and moves with them.
CanadianInvestor: I also traded GIX in 2008-2009, ending up with 5000 shares at the cost of about $1.50. Then they got screwed over and the property they were mining was taken away from them, as they couldn't borrow enough money to buy it out. After that, they were left with just a good team of people and cash in the bank equivalent to $0.14/share. I glanced at the news recently and saw that they got into some joint venture again, but I don't know the terms. I also don't know how much cash they have in the bank now. If I were you, I would call them up and ask them all these questions.
ReplyDeleteI think this time the Fed and Govt try to prevent the market from repeating the 2nd crash of the depression, and to do so they will need to make a sacrifice of the dollar, like Roosevelt did in 1933/34. They are trying to let it down slowly anyway, but I think their next move will accelerates the drop in the dollar's value, much like the Euro became unwanted after PIIGS debt started getting stinky, and instead of the dollar being the safe haven it has been in times of crisis, it will crash, and gold will take its place in that regard.
ReplyDeleteYou can only run the same play so many times before your opposition figures out a way to turn it to their favor.
Welcome to the Greater Depression.
PS: Every day it becomes more obvious that Keynesian Economics doesn't work like it was expected to, and is dependent on ever increasing debt in the system to cause growth, which does't seem to happen once overall leverage gets to scary levels.
ReplyDeleteI will throw out the idea that any real recovery won't even start till Keynesians are completely discredited, and their policies are replaced by sane ones starting with instead, sound money. I wonder how many years or decades it will take for them to admit they were and are completely wrong about economics.
I think you are right, cheapy. The reason why $USD was falling over the past 1.5 months while the ECRI WLI growth index was also going down is probably because the smart currency traders have figured out that in order to get us out of the second recession the Fed will try to print even more money...
ReplyDeleteGuys - I think we may be over reacting based on 1 bad day's worth of trading, no? I mean, 8 days ago we were at 1,011. Let's keep things in perspective until we know for sure we're going down, which would be on a close below 1,020.
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