Wednesday, July 21, 2010
7/22/10 Promises
I don't care what you do at night,
Oh, and I don't care how you get your delights.
I'm gonna leave you alone, I'll just let it be,
I don't love you and you don't love me.
I got a problem. Can you relate?
I got a woman calling love hate.
We made a vow we'd always be friends.
How could we know that promises end?
I once dated a woman just like that.
I also seem to be dating a number of ETFs that remind me of her.
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I've finally arrived at the place where I have no take whatsoever on market direction tomorrow. And it doesn't matter.
ReplyDeleteI am a little worried about my liver, though. Last blood test I had, liver enzymes were slightly elevated- I mentioned to my physician that I deliberately downed a bottle of wine daily for an entire week prior to the test to see what effect it would have on the LFTs. So now I drink two bottles a day.
ReplyDeleteSeriously, it was enough to 'scare' me into limiting alcohol consumption to moderate amounts 2-3x/wk.
vb- That was as close as I could come to 'elevator music.'
ReplyDelete2nd - i'm in the same boat now. today's action really leaves me feeling a whole lot less bullish.
ReplyDeleteby the way, check out this index:
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SHPROP:IND
we probably should have been keeping track of it for a while. Its the China Se Shang's Property Index and it is a capitalization-weighted index that measures the performance of the property sector of the SHCOMP Index.
it's pretty clear that it's working off a big bubble from a few years ago.
tof- Damn, I'm glad my brother sold his Shanghai house recently.
ReplyDeleteWell, I could have 'predicted' the market would fade opening remarks by Oz. It's really kind of uncanny.
ReplyDeleteby the way, I think Gold is now an excellent short. i think it is finished. i will be looking to add GLL to my longs.
ReplyDeletetof - look at DZZ instead (more than 2x volume of GLL)
ReplyDeletetof's getting married. He can't afford to play with fire.
ReplyDeletee5,
ReplyDeleteI'm looking at mostly older boats. Of the 30 boats I have saved links to, there are only 2 with open transoms, and don't have bulb keels. Could you explain or point me someplace to read up on why I should look for that kind of setup.
Also, I'm hoping to find a boat that draws less than 6 ft to make it easier to do any island hopping type trips
tof,
gold isn't done till the printing ceases. sure, it could pull back or crash temporarily, but it will be back with a vengeance quickly thereafter, IMO, because there is absolutely a growing distrust with paper promises by governments, and it has a long, long way to run before it gets silly.
2nd- No way. TOF has to use what little time he has left to set the bar (behavioral) as low as possible. Much easier to do before than after ;)
ReplyDeleteI actually didn't have that bad of a day...yet I feel more pissed of than usual.
Ah, yes. You feel the way I felt yesterday.
ReplyDeleteTOF- RAS was rejected today right at the 100. We might want to let this one go and re-asses after earnings.
ReplyDeleteYep.
ReplyDeleteMark - "re-asses"...that's what I've been calling myself a lot these days with my multitude of bad investments.
ReplyDeletemark - by the way, RAS was rejected just below the 50DMA not the 100. It closed right on the 200 DMA.
ReplyDeletei still think the earnings on Friday will surprise to the upside though. I'm very interested in seeing the unemployment claims tomorrow.
TOF- I don't see it's earnings scheduled for Fri.?
ReplyDeleteRAS- I use the 100ema, which appears just below the 50sma. Either way, today's action was not constructive. But your right. It closed right on the 200. All of the volume was on that big spike up, so it's really hard what to make of that. Any ideas? Nervous short covering is all I can come up with.
ReplyDeleteCopper/gold/silver all down close to 1% right now. Crude flat. We lose oil, I'm F'ed.
ReplyDelete2nd_ave said...
ReplyDeleteI am a little worried about my liver, though. Last blood test I had, liver enzymes were slightly elevated-............... a physical feel to check your liver size and a good rap on t/rt lower chest wall is in order w/ a doc that can find enough time to demo long term change and scare the bejebers out of you. maybe we could also arrange a TT open consultation with high and low brow input. b/c , u know, we all love u & will miss u; when yur gone.
not to worry yet. your liver has enormous repair potential that will slow shrinkage into a knobby shadow of its former self
w/ affection
e5
e5- My youngest has always been the sensitive type (just like Dad). He's been worrying for years what will happen when I die. I tell him (what is IMO) the truth- the soul lives on forever, and we'll be reunited in the spiritual realm. So now I get lots of questions about what spirits can and cannot do ;)
ReplyDelete2nd- Could you save me some time and email that list to me :)
ReplyDeleteES/CL are dead flat zero right now. My oh my....
ReplyDelete2nd,
ReplyDeletethat is cute, but the polemic truth is your little guy is an extra ordinary pressure that works to keep you mentally 20 years younger. in the here and now past experience may not have provided some vital basic learning building blocks. you alone make all choices. many are dead ended. interesting ones continue to new ?? goog liver pathology for layman that will give a better background in re your bottle test and chem report. little guys are a solid gift.
e5
RAS - According to finviz earnings are 7/23 BMO.
ReplyDeleteI shouldn't mention that the chart doesn't look so bad to me or that it only just retested the 20dma and barely failed... FBR Capital downgraded RAS on May 13, dunno who's right.
2nd - Most folks have their liver with onions, I never was much into liver though...
ReplyDeleteSure looks like we should sell all our crap that's going down daily and just buy BP.
ReplyDeleteOK- We don't need to post any videos about liver and Chianti do we ;)
ReplyDeleteEuropean bank stress test results are due this Friday, I guess a subject like this doesn't make for a topic of conversation amongst us here.
ReplyDeleteRAS- Thanks CP. Dancing around the fire pit tonight chanting?
ReplyDeleteCP- Oh yes it does....Hummm. Do we expect anything other than flying colors? I don't. Suddenly I'm feeling better about my longs.
ReplyDeleteEuropean stress test - Truthfully, I don't know what to expect, I wouldn't imagine they'd like to present a negative picture. I had no idea Europe was a debt haven though.
ReplyDeleteRAS - I try not to comment on something I haven't done much DD on
Copper prices have rebounded nicely the past few days on news of lower stockpile levels, lost some today but still ahead...
SCCO - Remind me to buy if it ever hits $26 again.
ReplyDeleteOK.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLJ_QVfT_wM&feature=related
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sein6WnbY0&feature=related
thanks for the elevator music 2nd, that combined with the pink floyd is a perfect combo to wake up too.
ReplyDeleteI think it is safe to expect more extreme weather patterns ahead
SCCO - Remind me to buy if it ever hits $26 again.
ReplyDeleteJJG - vb, you could lighten-up a little here maybe...
ReplyDeleteLandry (agrees with tof about shorting gold)-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
Well, the market turned right back down.
Wait, no, it turned right back up--futures are up huge pre-market (I'm publishing early this morning so that's subject to change).
My point is, in a Katy Perry Market (it's up then it's down, it's hot then it's cold) you have to be careful not to chase your own tail.
Let everyone else fight it out. I'm going to talk more about this using some Livermore quotes later today in the chart show.
Other than some potential gold shorts, the database isn't producing many meaningful setups. This confirms the sideways action we have seen as of late.
Whatever happened to gold as a safe haven?
ReplyDeleteFoie gras and Chianti? What's the world coming to......!!!!!?????
ReplyDeleteFoie gras and chianti- now there's a match made in heaven.
ReplyDeleteCAT's got nine-lives, raised guidance.
ReplyDeleteI have to admit, yesterday's action made my liver spots flair up big time. Ruffled my feathers, you might say...
ReplyDeleteX - Busted out and closed over the 50dma yesterday.
ReplyDeleteMan it's whippy out there.
ReplyDelete'Jobless claims jump in latest week
ReplyDeleteFirst-time filings up 37,000, a reversal after claims hit two-year low last week'
Anybody get stopped out yesterday in preparation for today's apparent gap up?
ReplyDeleteYou got me runnin goin out of my mind,
ReplyDeleteYou got me thinkin that Im wastin my time.
Don't bring me down,no no no no no,
Ill tell you once more before I get off the floor
Don't bring me down.
no,no,no,no,no,no,no....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctxLMTjS3HY
Evidently all the big prognosyicators are now short gold, so I bought DGP this am.
ReplyDeleteout of DGP for $3700 profit.
ReplyDeleteAll accounts now at all time record levels :)
TZA @ 36.20...
ReplyDeleteI went and took the dog out, gave her a treat, fresh water and some kibbles, and when I came back the screen said the position was up $3700, so I just dumped it without looking.
ReplyDeleteI am probably clueless, but I know a profit when I see one, and wasn't going to let it escape on me.
honetly, i'm completely flabbergasted as to what is going on with the markets. i mean i like it because i'm 100% long. I guess it all comes down to earnings and they're still beating pretty much across the board and CAT and UPS had great earnings which is a good thing. it looks like bears can't knock this market down any more so i'm sticking with my longs.
ReplyDeleteMan they raided all the bear camps while the bears slept...
ReplyDeleteSlaughtered them all, men women and children.
ReplyDeleteThe ones who are bothering to fight back are torched...
ReplyDeleteSold too early again...
ReplyDeleteOh well, at least I made good money today.
the 50 DMA was cleared today...let's see if it sticks. next up is the 200 DMA at 1113.
ReplyDeleteI've been watching the open of GDOT. Crazy.
ReplyDeleteby the way, i'm probably dumb but i'm gonna hold RAS through earnings.
ReplyDeleteGood thinking cheapy, classic!
ReplyDeleteGood job Cheapy. The only way I'll hit all time high's this year is if I deposit more $'s in my accout :)
ReplyDeleteTOF - Dumb sounds smart...
ReplyDeletestill holding my PIR and STT and SPY. not going to sell them at this point as it's clear the market can't fall below 1,050.
ReplyDeleteNatty inventory report pretty much in line.
ReplyDeleteTOF- I suspect we will need a good old fashioned short squeeze to push above the 200. The VIX is much lower than the last time SPY was at these levels.
ReplyDeleteplayed TZA for $490 profit. should have been $800 but my sell order didn't go thru and had to cancel and reenter, but that got rejected, and then the 3rd time it went thru but price had dropped. Lucky to get out when I did, LOL.
ReplyDeleteDRYS - Is Greece gonna tax the bull-pookie out of their shippers in an attempt to pay off sovereign debt?
ReplyDeleteI think I'll quit while I'm ahead today and go replace a trailer taillight and work on the race car before I do something stupid and lose todays $4200 profit
ReplyDeleteHave a good day, everyone...
Hello all,
ReplyDeleteI've spent the last 18 hours busting the BALLS of my money-manager friend for telling me the shit he told me....
As you all know I trade what I see not think as do most of us, and my friend essentially "prevented" me from selling into yesterdays testimony with my uncle (who looks as though he's aged ten years), which then caused me to sell wrong yesterday into the crash near the end for a "small" loss.
The real harm done though was, by telling me all about some propietary black box hocus-pocus that his firm is running (which gave all sorts of buy signals 2 days ago) this golf ball polisher had me thinking that a strong technical long setup had been discredited (had failed), which, at the very least would (and still should have methinks) cause a bodacious selloff in Asia last night.
Then, having sold wrong, I had a hard time getting back in today even though I should have.
The part I'm having a hard time with is, why did I listen to this bratwurst boy in the first place? Was it the absence of certitude on my part regarding my long? Was it just wanting to believe in something that confirmed my position?
Was it just the whole hocus-pocus of the black box? I told him I'd tried black boxes but that I preferred European or even latin American ones, but he was adament.....
So, having pissed away the "ideal" entry, I sit here now and wonder why I ever talk with anyone at all?
All the yapping, the yammering, the bullshit you hear about stocks is JUST bullshit, PLAIN and SIMPLE YO.
Hopefully the frigging beard will torpedo the market with his q and a.
ReplyDeleteLater guys. Good luck.
ReplyDeleteshark,
ReplyDeletejust imagine how raped you'd feel if you had bought 10,000 shares of TZA yesterday morning and taken a $630 loss selling them, only to watch it go zoom afterwards...
i don't like tips, and in general i look to nod my head in agreement and then see if i shouldn't be fading it with the thought that i'm always the LAST big fish to hear about it, anyway.
for example, that was my reason for buying gold this am on weakness
I think there were some folks who had a pretty good idea of what Bernanke was going to say yesterday and I wouldn't say your friend was necessarily wrong, sharkie. I think there was a little extra surprise thrown in there that Bernanke actually said the FED was essentially going to do nothing unless the economy softened.
ReplyDeleteKinda sounds like what we were hearing from Europe, doesn't it?
Anyway, this should please the folks who keep complaining about government intervention and unintended consequences, maybe it's time the market work things out on it's own but I think the job market still needs help and don't see the value in extending unemployment benefits as opposed to infrastructure improvement.
Human population is expanding, natural resources are becoming more scarce as they are consumed. Those natural resources will go into value-added products coming from a factory somewhere, hopefully the industrial complex near your neighborhood.
So I wasn't quite clear on your friend's instructions, were they totally out of whack or did it actually turn out better than it seemed?
Sounds like there was a little twist of lime in there that threw you...
For me it's not necessary to make money every day, I'm only attempting to lower my cost basis at this point knowing full well that eventually prices will rise.
TZA off @ 35.59 for a loss, man....
ReplyDeleteCheapy - 4th Gen F-Bodys look like a disposable butane lighters to me. Next, go get an 2nd Gen A-Body and slap a computer on it!
ReplyDeleteJust be careful though till you get used to it, those things can get a little squirrely in a four wheel drift but they're a blast to drive once you learn how to integrate with the idiosyncrasies.
A G-Body is almost as much fun...
Ummm, I've had it 10 years and it has won its class every year its been raced. No wrecks, either. Yes its a heavy pig, eats brakes, tires and fuel, LOL.
ReplyDeleteI do like the old 1st and 2nd gen's, too, but none appeared for cheap when I started racing.
You want a heavy pig try an A-Body. The wagon doesn't switch ends quite as easily but that coil spring rear is what I was referring to that needs some getting used to. The '69 Chevelle is more of a handful but they're a blast to drive IMO.
ReplyDeleteI used to have a '69 Chevelle, loved the way that car drove.
bought GSS at $4.00 and RBY at $3.35
ReplyDeleteHad a tendency to oversteer, which almost got me in trouble a few times till I figured it out.
ReplyDeleteMy 3 trading accounts are up a total of 1K so far today, so I guess I haven't opened enough shorts yet. I feel uncomfortable being net long in this market, and a fully hedged stance (like the one Hussman has) seems to be much more reasonable to me. So I would like to pick up some more shorts today on strength. If the market rallies into the close, I'll buy some TWM at the close. On the other hand, the market can turn down in the afternoon, and in order to catch that event, I am placing a buy stop order on 200 shares of TWM at $21.40, just above the minor "bump" made by TWM at 12 noon EST.
ReplyDeleteMine are pretty balanced, there. Tire pressures, suspension and alignment are important
ReplyDeleteOUT thanks goodness
ReplyDeleteThanks guys.
ReplyDeletebought AUY at %9.51
ReplyDeletePCX moving up. Looks like ti filled the gap from late Jun
ReplyDeleteIf everything is so grand with the economic recovery (as today's headlines suggest after the latest earning reports), then why is the 10-year Treasury yield at 2.93% now?
ReplyDeleteYou snooze you lose, huh? Me thinks Sharkie's pal had the right idea... Don't bust those balls no more...
ReplyDeleteThe Beard speaks:
"We are ready and will act if the economy does not continue to improve, if we don't see the kind of improvements in the labor market that we are hoping for and expecting,"
"the Fed does not expect the economy to stall, and therefore does not foresee any extra policy measures being needed."
So what the heck did he NOT say just yesterday that disappointed SO MUCH?
sold GSS for $1200 profit
ReplyDeleteDavid: re: Treasurys...because Bernanke implied rates will be low for a long time is my guess. If jobs come back quicker then those rates will ratchet up pretty quickly. In looking at the past 30 years or so, the 10 year fluctuates a ton. I mean, only 3 months ago it was at 4% and everyone was worried about hyperinflation.
ReplyDeleteshark/vb- The fact is NO ONE has been able to consistently game this market.
ReplyDeleteIt's the wild, wild west, every man/woman for himself/herself, and to play at all you need to strap on a six-gun and practice the quick draw.
I don't say it to be funny- I really believe it...
As of this moment I am down -0.7% from the YTD high, and while I'm not happy about it, I can live with that.
ReplyDeleteIf I were to get into the -1% to -2% range, I'd start getting depressed.
If it were to extend into the -7% range, I'd be devastated.
So the smart move for me just might be to stick with the Sell-in-May plan?
I have just shorted 500 shares of XHB at $15.04 in order to reduce the long bias in my portfolio.
ReplyDeleteclosed AUY for $50 loss
ReplyDeleteThe market is still tracking similar (obviously not exact) with the 1998 market during the Asia/Russian sovereign crisis.
ReplyDeleteBoys....
ReplyDeleteInstead of just fully hedging my portfolio and being bored from just watching it, I figured I would do some trading with very small positions, like I used to do before. So I just picked up 100 shares of TWM at $20.84 and placed a buy stop order for 200 more shares at $21.
ReplyDeletePlaced a sell limit order at $21.84 for 100 shares of TWM I have just picked up at $20.84.
ReplyDeleteI am canceling the buy stop order I placed on TWM at $21, and if the market collapses tomorrow following a drop in the WLI Growth index below -10% (many mutual funds might have that threshold programmed in their trading models, and once it is reached they might go into an "imminent recession" mode and start selling everything left and right), I'll be happy that I at least took some advantage of today's jump (picked up some TWM today at $20.84 and shorted XHB at $15.04).
ReplyDeleteAMZN gunning for it's Oct. gap.
ReplyDeletesat on my hands, earnings have been a real grab bag - surprised at the rev strength at msft.
ReplyDeleteSoooo is everyone ready for a gap down tomorrow?
ReplyDeleteIts weird but I have finally reached a state of not giving a shit about what happens intraday or day to day anymore and am just focusing on longer term stop points on everything. It's a mini mental vacation for me. I'm sure it won't last.
"Soooo is everyone ready for a gap down tomorrow?"
ReplyDeleteI am. :)
i doubt it will happen david, but who knows.
ReplyDeleteStill long RBY at the close. It looks pretty beat down all things considered.
ReplyDeleteJB- I'm guessing you sold REW/FAZ? Did yesterday get you green?
ReplyDeleteCheapy- Email me a full size photo of you car. I'd love to see it.
mark, i sent pics of the red one and the gold one
ReplyDelete2nd,
ReplyDeleteAgreed
You can get a FAST crew cut in this market
vb
yes david, yep, I say tomorrow a gap down for a 5% hit
ReplyDeletev b
2nd,
ReplyDeletecan you please email me
thks
GM ipo scheduled for THIS Aug. 13th. GL....
ReplyDeletetaking a risk holding RBY, but its been shorted lately, i can tell, because it goes up now anytime gold drops. based on that it won't drop much more. should be one of the best new miners in can in 2012, me thinks, if not bought out before then.
ReplyDeleteCheapy- Thanks for the info on RBY. I was going to ask you about it.
ReplyDelete"China makes critical nuclear progress
ReplyDeleteBy Zhou Yan and Wang Xiaotian (China Daily)
Updated: 2010-07-22 09:30
BEIJING - China's endeavor to increase the use of clean energy got a big boost on Wednesday after an experimental fast reactor using the mostly homegrown fourth-generation nuclear technology reached the critical state.
Fast reactors that run on the fourth-generation technology differ from others in that they are able to utilize the fuel in a more optimal way so as to reduce the overall energy costs significantly.
The technology will also lift the uranium usage ratio to as high as 70 percent from existing 1 percent. In the long run, it will also considerably reduce the nation's reliance on foreign fuel imports.
"The fast reactor will extend China's utilization of proven and verified uranium resources to 1,000 years from less than 100 years through the existing pressurized water reactors," said Zhang Donghui, general manager of the fast reactor program.
The fast reactor program has been set up with a total investment of 2.5 billion yuan ($369 million) and China is the eighth country to successfully master the technology.
"This is a significant step in China's nuclear program," said Zhao Zhixiang, dean of China Institute of Atomic Energy.
Uranium prices have been firming up recently due to a surge in demand and a dwindling of global proven resources. Added to this is also the long gestation time for successfully mining uranium from new finds.
China currently produces around 750 tons of uranium. The demand-supply gap of uranium is expected to exceed 10,000 tons by 2015 and reach nearly 30,000 tons by 2030, according to Yan Qiang, a researcher with Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences.
With the bulk of the nuclear power likely to be used for meeting the nation's power needs, demand for the clean energy is also expected to surge, said Yan.
China plans to set up 60 new nuclear reactors and have a nuclear power productivity of around 75 million kilowatts by 2020. The country is also constructing 23 machine sets to harness nuclear power, the largest among the 57 such sets in the world.
The nation is likely to double its uranium purchases to around 5,000 metric tons this year to build stockpiles for new reactors, said Thomas Neff, a physicist and uranium-industry analyst at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge.
China Uranium Development Co Ltd recently acquired a majority stake in Australian miner Energy Metals Ltd."
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2010-07/22/content_11034745.htm
CP- So, when do we move to the land of the rising sun?? :)
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