Friday, July 2, 2010
7/3/10 Margaritaville
They blew out my wide stop
With a wicked closing pop
Turned it all red had to cruise on back home
But there's Scotch in the tumbler
A fuel-injected Hummer
The 120 proof that helps me hang on
I think it was Craig who first mentioned single malt Scotch back in '06. Then David chimed with the Glenfiddich 12- and 18-year whiskeys. And finally the Glenlivet Nadurra, which is the ultimate buzz, IMHO.
Enjoy the holiday weekend! My intraday gains have been transformed into 16 ounce rib-eyes on the grill.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
CP- Hey 2 cents on a penny stock will feed me for 2 days!! I like it here. Easy stop, just like PXP.
ReplyDeleteYeah, we've heard all about your 2 apple diet ;)
ReplyDeletehi! did i miss happy hour ?
ReplyDeletethanks 2nd for the jb. You probably know but jimmy is from mobile. He was a real hero showing up for a surprise visit at his sister's bar lulus, last night.
how is everyone here? wow, i am like running from blog to blog and subdivision to network meeting. check in mid stream to place a bet but missing the min to min rythem.
home alone this weekend. maybe I will relax by the pool!
Checking in midstream to place a bet? You're starting to sound like me.
ReplyDeleteHere's a scary scenario- Asia drops -5% across the board Monday. We can't do anything about it. Europe follows with -5%. We can't do anything about it. Asia drops another -10% Tuesday. We can't do anything about it. Europe follows with -10%. US markets finally open Tuesday morning, and circuit breakers are all that keep us from opening down -15%.
ReplyDeleteThe above is neither a 'hunch' nor a 'take.' Just a random thought.
ReplyDeleteAnd a bundle of carrots! Honestly, the new diet IS hard. It's those damn carbs I so love. Oh well, I'm determined to make it work!!
ReplyDeleteInteresting take on why the Gulf clean-up is taking so long:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/109983/why-is-the-gulf-cleanup-so-slow?mod=bb-budgeting
Mark- I wouldn't be able to follow an apples and carrots diet. We weren't meant to live that way.
ReplyDeleteWe're not rabbits, right?
ReplyDeleteI don't think so. Eat plenty of meat. I just miss the big 'ol plate of pasta!
ReplyDeleteHave you considered the old college diet of popcorn and beer? Tried and true...
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of diets, had to take little peep-Louie out again this evening for his grasshopper fix. When it was time to go he didn't want to leave, he wanted to keep on huntin' them grasshoppers.
My neighbor's young dog caught and ate a baby bunny...
Fireworks show over the lake tomorrow evening, everyone's invited.
Basta pasta! Gimme giant greasy burgers. Okay, I like pasta but don't eat it but maybe once a month.
ReplyDeleteWent to happy hour at Taco Cabana and bought 1/2 price dinners and Margerita's for 5 people for $26, AND IT WAS GOOD!
ReplyDeletePossible slow-down in the job market’s recovery?
ReplyDelete"Transportation jobs surge ahead
Of the 12 major industries we track, almost all show solid year-over-year job posting growth this month. Job posting gains have been strongest in cyclical industries like Transportation, Hospitality, Retail and Media.
Transportation continues to be a stand-out performer, boasting a 73% increase in job postings year-over-year and an increase of 20,000 jobs since April. The most sought after transportation job titles as measured by job seeker clicks were Driver, Receiver/Stocker, and Delivery Driver.
The overall number of job postings in June was roughly the same as May, marking a possible slow-down in the job market’s recovery. Less cyclical industries, like Healthcare and Education, have remained relatively flat in the last few months.
Real Estate was the only industry showing an annual decline, with a fall of -4%, reflecting persistent softness of the real estate market. Metropolitan areas experiencing the strongest job seeker traffic for real estate jobs were New York, Atlanta, and Houston."
http://blog.indeed.com/
In contrast to CP's post above, here are some excerpts from John Mauldin's newsletter:
ReplyDelete*****
We were told that the unemployment number dropped from 9.7% to 9.5%. That's a good thing, right? Well, no, not really. The number dropped because the number of people counted as being in the labor force dropped. If you haven't looked for work for four weeks, you are not counted as unemployed. If you add those who were taken off the rolls back in, the unemployment number would have risen to 9.9%. In the past two months nearly one million people have dropped out of the labor market.
If you counted all the people who would take a job if they could find one as unemployed, the unemployment number would be closer to 11%. As an aside, if I have any real beef with the BLS over how they create their data, it is this last point. If you would take a job if you could get one, you should be counted as unemployed. Period.
The Household Survey was rather dismal. (This is where they call households and ask about their employment situation.) The survey showed a loss of 301,000 jobs, or 363,000 jobs if you adjust it to match the Establishment Survey. Not pretty.
Since January, 2008, the seasonally adjusted average change in employment per firm has been negative in every month, with a seasonally adjusted loss of 0.3 workers per firm reported in June for the prior three month period. Most firms did not change employment, 5% (down 3 points from May) increased average employment by 3.4 employees, but 15% (down 5 points) reduced their workforces by an average of 3.3. "Job creation" still hasn't crossed the 0 line in the small business sector. Government (including health care and education) and manufacturing (a large firm activity) has been providing what few jobs are created, weak given the magnitude of employment loss during the recession. And now the elimination of temporary Census jobs will make the picture look more bleak, although more accurate. A few more private sector jobs is not enough, we need 225,000 every month for 3 years to re-employ 8 million workers who lost their jobs and another 125,000 a month to keep up with population growth.
Here are some even more interesting excerpts:
ReplyDelete***
And there you have it. All the data pointing to a slowing economy? It puts us closer to deflation. It is not the headline data per se we need to think about. We need to start thinking about what the Fed will do if we have a double-dip recession and start to fall into deflation. Will they move out the yield curve, as he suggested? Buy more and varied assets like mortgages and corporate debt? What will that do to markets and investments?
Note that last bolded line [quoting from Bernanke's famous "helicopter" speach]: "For this reason, as I have emphasized, prevention of deflation is preferable to cure." If he is true to his words, that means he may act in advance of the next recession if the data continues to come in weak and deflation starts to actually become a threat. That is the thing we don't see in all the economic data - the potential for new Fed action.
****
I wouldn't want to be caught with [ultra]shorts on when the Fed takes such an action... How low can Bernanke allow the market to drop before taking some action? S&P to 900? To 800? Probably not lower than 800. In that event, regardless how low the market drops from here, after Bernanke takes an action the market can possibly rally all the way back to S&P 1040. So I suppose scaling out of my ultrashorts gradually from here down is the right thing to do, as I'll be able to reload them AFTER Bernanke takes an action and the market starts sputtering again (naturally, one action won't be sufficient this time, as the market has already seen plenty of "actions").
I remember John Hussman pointed out once that even during 1929-1932, whenever an important support level was broken, the Dow would subsequently rally back to that level to test it as a resistance, and then failed again. Since this time we aren't have the "panic-type" financial crisis with a lightning-speed market collapse but a gradual deterioration of the overall economy as the existing stimulus fizzles out, the rallies back to the previous support level are very likely. This is yet another reason for me to keep taking profits on my ultrashorts gradually from this point forward.
I have sell limit orders on TWM at $25 and $26, and then on SKF at $27, $28, and $29, each for 100 shares. Let's see how many of these limits get hit before the rally back to the 1040 support level begins.
Here is a more interesting excerpt from John Mauldin:
ReplyDelete***
And there you have it. All the data pointing to a slowing economy? It puts us closer to deflation. It is not the headline data per se we need to think about. We need to start thinking about what the Fed will do if we have a double-dip recession and start to fall into deflation. Will they move out the yield curve, as he suggested? Buy more and varied assets like mortgages and corporate debt? What will that do to markets and investments?
Note that last bolded line [quoting from Bernanke's famous “helicopter” speech]: "For this reason, as I have emphasized, prevention of deflation is preferable to cure." If he is true to his words, that means he may act in advance of the next recession if the data continues to come in weak and deflation starts to actually become a threat. That is the thing we don't see in all the economic data - the potential for new Fed action.
***
I remember John Hussman pointed out at some point that even during 1929-1932 period, whenever an important support level was broken by the Dow, it would then subsequently rally back to that support level, test it as resistance and fail. Since we are not having a lightning-fast financial crash and instead are enduring a gradual deterioration of economy, I think the likelihood of rallies back to previous support levels are very high, ESPECIALLY when the Bernanke will likely keep pulling rabbits out of his hat to slow down this deterioration. So the proper course of action for me, I think, is to keep scaling out of my ultrashorts from here down. After the sell limit order for TWM at $24 was triggered yesterday, I still have sell limit orders on TWM at $25 and $26, and then on SKF at $27, $28, and $29. Let's see how many of these orders get hit before a rally back to the 1040 support level takes place.
Mark
ReplyDeleteDid I read you are on low carb? I went off my low carb diet when I got to florida but, I am back on the wagon now (30 g or less per day) You have to go into Ketosis to get the ball rolling.
When you get tempted by the bread or pasta, just go for a nice ribeye and a shot of vodka. Sweet tooth? Vanilla bean low carb icecream (safeway brand)
2nd- That was an interesting take on the gulf spill. Thanks for posting it.
ReplyDeleteVB- Thanks for the info. Read up on it this morning. No problems with sweets. Don't really like them. More of a salt/bitter/spicey guy :).
"Here's a scary scenario...."
ReplyDeleteWhy think such thoughts on such a nice Saturday?
Besides, I'm long PAL, remember?:)
My perfect 4th of July scenario....
ReplyDeleteVB massaging my back as I lie by the pool and regale 2nd and Bob with stories of my trading exploits. Bob describes the ideal use of 27 moniters, and 2nd discusses the market reversal he feels is just around the corner.
"Vinod" supplies the shellfish, the liquor, and the chicks, and Chickenpookie supervises and expedites, basically bossing Bill Cara around as Bill stands over a smoking hot Weber cooking steaks, lobster tails and locally grown just-picked corn to order.
HAPPY $TH! I mean 4th:)
Hi all, happy 4th of July.
ReplyDeleteCC survivor who got off the bloody island.
ECU.to: Thanks David for the heads up. Looks very promising. as a Technician I think we have something here. I project that support is good here. Looking at next week it looks like $0.595 is as low as it gets. Below that i would wait out. I will try to post a chart study as soon I get motivated. But my initial chart has not given me a current buy signal, but we are close.
Just to note... my style is to look at price and bit to volume to find where the bulls or bears are hiding. Volume on June 22 and this Friday tells me the bulls can not hide their intentions. Time will tell.
Here is Bob Farrell's rule number 8 of investing: "Bear markets have three stages -- sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend."
ReplyDeleteI'll keep this is my roadmap for the future. The key concept for me here is that the fundamental downtrend will be *gradual*. Hence, once again, I think it is safe to assume that once a major support level is broken (e.g., 1040 on S&P), the market will later rally to test it as a resistance level. Also, it means that selling puts on good companies AFTER the market has declined noticeably below a major support level (i.e., below 1000 on S&P) will usually be a worthwhile trade, since even if the shares get assigned to me, I'll later sell covered calls against these shares on a subsequent rally and will have a decent chance of seeing those shares taken away from me at a profit.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/State-and-local-govt-workers-apf-1880050013.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
ReplyDelete'For years, most people who worked for state or local governments accepted a fact of life: Their pay wasn't great. The job security was.
Now that's gone, too.'
Hi CI- Welcome! The protocol here is pretty simple. Just fade all of my trades :). I look forward to your analysis.
ReplyDeleteCongrats to Germany. They played a perfect game today. Argentina's sand lot style was no match for the precision defense and counter attacking style Germany deploys. Bravo!
ReplyDeleteanyone else see the charts on the S&P on Yahoo? Is this an omen?
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI+Interactive#chart12:symbol=^dji;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
TOF - It's been one hell of a drop hasn't it?
ReplyDeleteCI - Welcome, I'm also a survivor.
1025 is about where the left shoulder began forming, the neckline is 1050 and has no slope. So the pattern was complete at 1050.
ReplyDeletePAL - Sharkie, did you notice 100k shares traded in AH?
Was looking at the hulu.com site to see what videos they have out there. Came upon an interesting series of videos about the daily work lives of several wall street professionals (pit traders, cold callers, day-trading interns, cotton options traders, etc.). Here's one
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hulu.com/watch/15493/wall-street-warriors-the-hate-index
Looks like 16 of them....
http://www.hulu.com/search?query=Wall+Street+Warriors&st=0
A Whale on the move....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnn.com/2010/US/07/03/gulf.oil.disaster/index.html?video=true?video=true&hpt=T1
Referring back to the article that 2nd posted about the clean up, MOG was saying that a long time ago. He still wont fill me in on his trip there, but I bet it was along the lines of this issue.
Hard to believe the A Whale can process 250 times the amount oily water per day than all of the skimmers currently in the gulf combined. And it's a converted vessel from another country. Way to go US.
Sharkie! You are bad and smart.
ReplyDelete* we will all be blogged soon - shark thanks for getting me googled top ten for vanilla massage
mark,
ReplyDeleteyou mean the Whale,, might be a fish story??
nahhhh
VB- You don't think the converted tanker will work??
ReplyDeletetof- Re the DJIA chart on Yahoo, I thought they would have corrected it by now. Or, as you point out, it's already 'correct,' and we have a rare glimpse of the future.
ReplyDeleteMore on the A Whale from AP...
ReplyDeleteby TOM BREEN
NEW ORLEANS — A giant new skimmer started tests Saturday to show if it can help Gulf of Mexico cleanup crews working to block millions of gallons of oil from reaching land.
The Taiwanese vessel dubbed A Whale, which its owners describe as the largest oil skimmer in the world, began testing just north of the Macondo Deepwater well site. An April 20 explosion on the Deepwater Horizon rig there killed 11 workers and began what is now the largest oil spill in Gulf history.
The vessel will cruise a 25-square-mile test site through Sunday, according to TMT Shipping, the company that created A Whale by retrofitting an oil tanker after the explosion sent millions of gallons of crude spilling into the Gulf.
The U.S. Coast Guard, along with BP, are waiting to see if the vessel, which is 10 stories high and as long as 3 1/2 football fields, can live up to its makers' promise of being able to process up to 21 million gallons of oil-fouled water a day.
The ship works by taking in water through 12 vents, separating the oil and pumping the cleaned seawater back into the Gulf.
A Whale is being tested close to the wellhead because officials believe it will be most effective where the oil is thickest rather than closer to shore.
The ship arrived in the Gulf on Wednesday, but officials have wanted to test its capability as well as have the federal Environmental Protection Agency sign off on the water it will pump back into the gulf. Although the ship cleans most of the oil from seawater, trace amounts of crude remain.
The wait has frustrated some local officials, who say the mammoth skimmer would be a game-changer in preventing drifting streams of oil from washing ashore on vulnerable coastlines.
During a Thursday tour of the inlet to Barataria Bay, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal said it was exasperating to have A Whale anchored offshore instead of being put to immediate use....
Up In The Air- one of those strangely existential comedies that leave you pondering your own choices in life.
ReplyDeleteI've spent my share of career time on the road, and I don't miss it at all. Even for one as 'isolationist' as I am, there's nothing quite as isolating as spending evenings alone in a strange hotel room every night.
From what I've read, the skimmers have cleaned up huge messes elsewhere. The problem now, as I understand it, is BP has been using dispersant instead of coagulant.
ReplyDeletehi mark,
ReplyDeleteIf the Fish Story brings comfort and hope to the locals, then it is good.
Here is some live footage. gulf spill
ReplyDeletehttp://blog.al.com/live/2010/07/video_low-oxygen_dead_zone_fou.html
tof- Sounds as if Bill is sounding the alert for possible buying opportunities. Excerpt:
ReplyDelete'Without further adieu, I am now going to tell you that it’s getting time to get locked and loaded. Prices of these high quality stocks are coming to you, and I know you have cash in those brokerage accounts of yours. I’m not saying buy now, but it is time you begin to set price targets for buying the shares. This is different than the price targets (PT) that the broker-dealers list. Those are their ‘wish list’ prices for after they have sold you stock. What you are looking for is your own ‘wish list’ set of prices.
Now, I know you would like to buy Intel (INTC) at $16, but it’s already fallen from a high of $24.37 in April, just 10 or 11 weeks ago to $19.20, which is a loss of about -21.2%, so you might have to settle for $17 or $18. In less time than that Cisco (CSCO), while not on my Top Ten list, has dropped -23.8% from $27.74 to $21.13. Your target might be $18, but I really don’t think it will go all the way down to $14, near the 2009 Bear market low not seen since 2Q2003. You get the point. Prices are falling; put them in your cross-hairs and watch for prices that are lower than 99% of the Wall Street Brainiacs have paid in the past many years. I assure you that your name will go up in the portfolio managers’ hall of fame – at least in the Cara Community.
Study the Value Line reports of these Dow 30 companies. They are giants in their field. When the world appears to be falling apart, buy them. You won’t go wrong. The world absolutely needs computer chips and the Internet. Besides, these companies are so cash rich and debt free that Greece, Portugal and Spain will soon be knocking on their door begging for a loan. In three years, mark my words here; their share prices will double.'
2nd - I agree with Cara. This is part of the reason I decided I need to begin buying a little bit of the S&P, bit by bit: because prices of companies have fallen to a point where corporate earnings are making their stocks look cheap. Is it the bottom? I doubt it. But if I can buy INTC at 10 times current years earnings when it has 18% of its market cap in cash or CSCO at 13 times current years earnings when it has 30% of its market cap in cash, then I think I'll do well even if earnings drop 10%.
ReplyDeleteThere are a lot of bargains out there right now, even if our economy is halting.
BAC - Cash per share is $14.43, eranings are -0.19
ReplyDeleteI am still a bc fan, in fact, always have been.
ReplyDeleteI like
CISCO
new post
ReplyDelete