Numbers don't lie.
I just finished compiling my official YTD return, and it's -0.4%. And that's including regular+matching contributions to my 403(b).
Had I put everything into FGMNX (Fidelity GNMA), I would be up over 6%.
I made transactions almost every single trading day this year.
Frustrated? I'm just facing the facts and being realistic. If I were sitting across the table from my trading self, then from a purely objective point of view, I would recommend that all trading cease immediately. Trading will cease immediately.
This post is not an indictment of market-timing. Not at all. I'm simply stating I can't time it. Consequently, I need to stop trying.
I spent some time late last year thinking about switching the retirement account out of paper assets, and into hard assets. That option is still on the table. Another option would be to simply buy into the next sharp sell-off, which may be months away.
At this point, if I retire at x+1 or x+2 instead of x, putting all of my earnings in that final year/those final 2 years into the retirement account, I can still end up pretty much where I need to be. If I continue day trading, I can easily screw things up.
As it is, I'm fortunate to have repaired much of the 2008/09 damage. Attempting to eclipse my 2008 high via day trading is unlikely to succeed. The wiser approach would be to exit the casino and return to simple asset allocation + long-term investment approaches.
Right now, capital preservation seems prudent, and cash looks good.
2nd - Another option might be to just pay off your real estate mortgage and sock away the extra cash in something safe.
ReplyDeleteWhere else are you going to obtain a return like that?
Just thinking out loud!
It's mainly luck:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-one-missing-investing-ingredient-luck-2010-08-02?link=kiosk
Russian grain harvest has not fared well this year, this must be the reason JJG has been on a tear recently.
ReplyDeleteSo now we know, it's probably too late to join the party?
That's what Tommy the cat would say!
ReplyDelete"PBOC stresses implementation of monetary policy
ReplyDelete(Xinhua)
Updated: 2010-08-02 08:56
BEIJING - The People's Bank of China, China's central bank, has asked its branches to effectively implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year.
The bank urged maintaining the continuity and stability of monetary policies while making them more targeted and flexible, according to a statement on the bank's website after a meeting with branch presidents.
It also urged adhering to the policy of striking a balance between keeping stable and relatively fast economic growth, adjusting the economic structure and managing inflation expectations.
It asked its branches to stick to its annual lending target while maintaining market liquidity at a reasonable level.
Housing loan policies should be strictly implemented to ensure the stable and healthy development of China's real estate market, the statement said. China's monetary policy should be more proactive, targeted and effective, the statement added.
The central bank has set a target to keep the country's new bank lending to below 7.5 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) in 2010.
In the first half of the year, China's new yuan-denominated lending hit 4.63 trillion yuan, down 2.74 trillion yuan from the same period last year."
Since this appears to be "True Confessions" time, I will admit that I am in the same boat as 2nd. Not that my boat has taken on water but certainly could use a stiff breeze forward.
ReplyDeleteThis in spite of the fact that since last fall I have paid $30/month for guidance from a new subscription site, with regards to the major averages only. Thats the lowest level $ and excludes futures and individual stocks/ETF's in that order.
The service has some benefit but this summer has led to whipsaw, even on the intermediate and long term...currently Bull 9 out of 10 indicating a resumption of the big bull from March 09. Top spotter is , however, in place at the 1219 or so.
"China wind turbine maker plans $500m US listing
ReplyDelete(Agencies)
Updated: 2010-08-02 15:18
Mingyang Electric, one of the five biggest wind power turbine suppliers in China, plans to raise $500 million in a share sale in the United States in September, in what could be the largest such listing by a Chinese company this year, the International Financing Review reported.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse Group AG and Morgan Stanley are working on the deal.
China is the world's largest market for wind turbines, and domestic wind equipment manufacturers such as Mingyang supply 80 percent of the market. China installed more than 13 gigawatts of wind power generating capacity last year.
Mingyang's IPO plan follows the shelving in June of a $1.17 billion Hong Kong listing by Chinese wind equipment supplier Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co Ltd. The Shenzhen-listed company pulled the offering because of fragile investor sentiment in the wake of the European sovereign debt crisis and concern about overcapacity in the sector."
CP- Thanks for the links to China Daily. I really them.
ReplyDelete'like' them. That's it. I need a beer.
ReplyDeleteMark, that sounds like a delicious idea, I've been Jonesin' for a black and tan(or equivalent) for over a month now!
ReplyDeleteAMZN is ABOVE the high on the day they reported.
ReplyDeleteLove black and tan's. Been a while though.
ReplyDeleteDid you catch the action in XOM today. That's what, 11B in market cap?
TOF- It remains to be seen, but I think we got snookered.
ReplyDeleteThat's it, I'm going to the store and see what I can find in the way of a beer! It's a 60 mile round trip so I'll be picking up other odds and ends as well, Louie peep-doodle's been beggin' for peas ever since we ran out I've been feeding him tomatoes and just ran out of those too.
ReplyDeleteHe really doesn't need these things though, he's got a touch of "angel wing", which is what happens when a young bird grows too rapidly... I think he'll grow out of it and these ducks can't fly more than 15 ft anyway, which is one thing I miss about having Rouen ducks, it was a always a cool feeling when they'd fly by my office window when they felt frisky.
60 friggin miles to the store?
ReplyDelete2nd- Obviously I agree cash is the place to be right now. After selling RAS it's back to 100%. No need to be a hero right now. I do wonder, however, with a clean trend break, when Landry might change his big blue arrow :)
ReplyDeleteThe Big Blue Arrow follows new highs. As he says, he's just a trend following moron. Certainly not a hero and very patient.
ReplyDeleteDo you want the link to the last chart show? I think I have it around here somewhere.
FF- If you have it handy, that would be great. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteFF- BTW, I hope your off market life has enjoyed a smooth patch.
ReplyDeleteWhen you've hit bottom the only direction is up.....so it's smoothing out by comparison.
ReplyDeleteLike everyone here, would like a direction ANY direction to make some coin. I've been making some daily change and doing alright, but small positions yield small returns. It would be nice to have a move we could hang onto for awhile.
http://tinyurl.com/2bskd4s
2nd's article states, "The biggest factor in long-term returns is how the financial markets happen to perform during the 30 or so years an investor puts money away for retirement."
ReplyDeleteFor short term results just substitute how well your picks/allocation are working in the current environment. It is the exact same concept. Always will be.
2nd,
ReplyDeleteI read your opening comment with a bit of dismay.
I think you are being too hard on yourself.
Where are the major indexes for this year?
Your performance is well within the statistical margin of error.
It was a lousy shitty year in the stock market.
Who could time this market?
My suggestion....As Vad says, go back to scalping a bit. Wait until after 3 up days, find some overbought shit, or the etf's if you prefer, and then try initiating some judicious shorts which you cover that day. If they go very profitable, hold half overnight.
I know a guy who didn't make didly for like 7 years in this business.....He couldn't make, and didn't lose much for a long time.
Believe me that guy is glad he stuck with this.
Besides, it aint yer regular job.....Your a johnny lunchpail workaday Bob type....So look at your market experiences as experiences, ones that can make you some money.
I still think the answer (for most of us who are not geniuses) is trading less often.
2nd --
ReplyDeleteMaybe you just need a break... It's a very challenging tape. Here's how Vad opened up yday's trading log...
Aug 02 2010
I dislike trading on Mondays, trading in August and trading on days starting out by large gap up. Today we got all three in one - and got pretty much useless day with no good setups. Tomorrow is another day.
PB
ReplyDeletebob,
you are a neat guy. i hope you do not strongly object to me changing the heraldry on your banner. i find you extremely different than cheap. pragmatic gives me a handle to interpret your objective reality.
perhaps you would like to share where you may intend to pair off your winter floating dock with a cool summer abode?
BTW if you really plan to single hand a four man crewed beast, factor in how much your life is worth in non frugal terms. buy extra back up items, read a lot, eg., learn how to rig self steering from sheet slack tension balanced to oppose elastic force; both made fast to the tiller.
what really matters is: how your mate can be included. if she would like to cruise[race] on a 30+' ketch, you've got it made. Antiqua Aprtl race week at English harbor, . Portsmith,NH , 3.5wk away!
e5
If we're really talking about 'Battle of the Algo Boxes,' then it's almost a video game, and the goal is to clean the clocks of all competing programs.
ReplyDeleteFor that reason alone, I think price action is entirely unpredictable.
Discretion, as in, the ability to tailor your approach to benefit from the "emotional" swings which inevitably occur, this is your advantage.
ReplyDeleteI sold all the PAL this morning at 3.42
The chart sucks.
How "predictable" is the action of a pair of dice, or of a wheel, or of a deck of cards?
ReplyDeleteHow predictable is your wife, for that matter? And if she is, is that a good thing?:):):)
Three Rules of Trading:
ReplyDelete1) What goes up usually comes down.
2) What comes down often goes back up:)
3) Add your own rule here:)
Watching HUN on the back of DOW earnings.
ReplyDeleteAMZN green...Humm.
ReplyDeleteWatching BHI.
PXP/HK/XCO doing well.
ReplyDeleteHLX moving up
ReplyDeleteThanks Kyle.
ReplyDeleteBHI holding the 300. Interesting area here.
ReplyDeleteTook $2300 profit on 1st 1/2 of DGP.
ReplyDeletee5, I'm not trying to get killed, and want a boat big enough to go out on open water (guld waters nw of St Pete seem likely), but small enough that I can sail it, and get it in and out of the dock ok. My wife MIGHT go out, but hasn't in the last 20 years. The more I can do without needing for help, the better. No racing for me on the boat. Its not about money or beating anyone else, its about enjoying the time and speed.
Sorry you have not been making money, 2nd. To be honest, I have enough trouble trying to keep track of my accounts and trying to get ME to think in profitable ways, that I really have no clue why you are sub-zero on the year. I still think carving a small biche that works for short intervals of time seems to be the safest small profiy play.
Sold the rest of DGP, net total profit of $4700 on the trade.
ReplyDeleteRosenberg: U.S. economy in “modern-day depression”
ReplyDeletefrom investment postcards
"The economy is in the process of slowing down," said David Rosenberg. “Whether or not we have a 'double-dip', it's going to be some pretty tough slogging as far as the overall economic backdrop."
http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2010/08/03/rosenberg-u-s-economy-in-modern-day-depression/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed:+wordpress/VYxj+(Investment+Postcards+from+Cape+Town)
back in PAL long
ReplyDeleteDavid - not sure if you've looked at your AMB chart lately:
ReplyDeletehttp://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf
GLD sure looks like a good short here, no?
ReplyDeletee5, what do you think of this one? Its only 30 min away to go look at.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.yachtworld.com/core/listing/boatMergedDetails.jsp?boat_id=2197540&ybw=&units=Feet¤cy=USD&access=Public&listing_id=12544&url=
Weaker banks and steel firms drag down Shanghai index
ReplyDeleteBy Feng Jianmin | 2010-8-3 |
SHANGHAI'S stock market dropped on weaker banks and steel makers.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.63 percent, or 16.95 points, to close at 2,655.57 points. Turnover expanded to 67.3 billion yuan (US$9.9 billion) from yesterday's 52.3 billion yuan.
The Shenzhen Composite Index, which tracks the smaller domestic market, lost 0.74 percent to close at 1,089 points.
Coal producers outperformed the market on growing demand for power as temperature rises. China Shenhua Energy Co, China's largest coal producer, added 0.66 percent to 24.23 yuan. China Coal Energy Co edged up 0.2 percent to 10.05 yuan. Datong Coal Industry Co climbed 3.71 percent to 17.05 yuan.
Banks were weak. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China went down 1.6 percent to 4.3 yuan. Bank of China fell 1.1 percent to 3.58 yuan. Bank of Communications was 1.2 percent lower at 6.61 yuan.
Steel makers led the losers. Baoshan Iron & Steel Co lost 2.11 percent to 6.48 yuan. Xinjiang Ba Yi Iron & Steel Co fell 1.25 percent to 11.86 yuan. Hunan Valin Steel Co retreated 2.77 percent to 4.57 yuan.
BOAT = Bring On Another Thousand!
ReplyDeleteShort gold - Maybe so, and it would definitely be a good short @ $1225.00 or thereabouts, IMO.
ReplyDelete* Financials are weak
* Base metals have lost their steam
* Currently oil is heading north but will it fail before punching through the 200DMA?
* PM's are mixed although both silver and gold have gained today.
Maybe we should try shorting crude here?
ReplyDeleteI think we'll get a better idea from tonight's Shanghai action, China is now destined to become the world's largest economy IMO.
ReplyDeleteI think China ALREADY IS the largest economy, and its just the undervaluation of the Yuan and overvaluation of the dollar that distorts what we see.
ReplyDeleteWhen does the normal inverse relationship between the dollar and gold return?
ReplyDeleteLong DZZ at $11.71. Gold looks like a really good short to me. Series of lower highs recently. RSI is showing deterioration as well. From what I've read a lot of money managers are selling their gold positions and moving to cash or getting short. There is a huge amount of premium built into this market that could quickly unravel if it crosses below it's 200 DMA and people bail:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/component/content/article/3/2249-whats-with-the-gold-strength-index.html?year=2010&month=07&Itemid=39
Full position in DZZ at $11.71. I really like this trade.
ReplyDeleteDid any of you guys get into Molycorp?
ReplyDelete(MCP...male chauvinist pig?)
Rare earth minerals 2 years from operation.
I almost bought it at 13 but was too much of a pussy. Now it's 13.50......HMMMMMM
I'm a little pissed about this morning. Over slept and wasn't sharp at all.
ReplyDeletemade another $90 long DGP for a bounce. I'll take what I can get...
ReplyDeleteMark- I have the same problem, only it's usually due to sleep deprivation.
ReplyDeletecb- You seem to be doing alright, especially the last couple of weeks. You may be the only guy here who has a handle on the ping pong rhythm in this market.
ReplyDeleteIt's almost as if the market lulls you into a certain rhythm- then waits for you to get complacent, and whacks the ball over the net with an unreturnable shot...
ReplyDelete2nd- Yeah, I need at least one hour just to clear my head. No idea where we are going from here. Looking for scalps only for now.
ReplyDeleteYes, doing well playing the mini-panics and bounces, here, but who knows, maybe its just luck that I don't get creamed.
ReplyDeleteBHI, This is what probably caused the weakness in price. "Financially, the Gulf of Mexico moratorium has negatively impacting our business on the shelf and in the deepwater, with a potential impact of $0.08 to $0.11 per share per quarter in the second half of the year."
ReplyDeleteDefinitely interested around 40 may take a starter today.
XCO seems interesting here though yesterday would have been better.
Hey 2nd are you a tennis player? I think Mark said you used to teach or work at some tennis camp in CA.
TOF- Yep. MMR had good drill results today.
ReplyDeleteI don't know if 2nd plays tennis. Must have been something else.
BHI- I almost bought it right at the bottom today, but my 3 day rule has proved to help more often than not. I'll wait.
XCO-earnings after the close, that put a stop on a but now.
ReplyDeleteENER still looking interesting. Worried about the price of oil here though.
ReplyDeleteCorrection: XCO-earnings after the close, that put a stop on a buy now.
ReplyDeleteNo buy in front of earnings.
T3D- CHK also after the bell. My last comment was to you, not TOF of course.
ReplyDeleteBHI, bsi87 calls these things kangaroo tails. I do not know if this is exactly one of those.
ReplyDeleteBG got totally clobbered on earnings and rebounded like a super ball.
Gold has to break 1170 before I would get nervous to think its breaking down here. Difference of opinion makes markets.
Whitney can she pull mkt down?
ReplyDeleteSteel glut?
ReplyDelete"China H1 crude steel output grows 21%
(Xinhua)
Updated: 2010-08-03 17:20
BEIJING - China's crude steel output in the first half of the year hit 323 million tons, up 21.09 percent year-on-year, sparking concern about increases in inventory and second half production.
Crude steel output per day in the first half averaged 1.7855 million tons, up 14.77 percent compared to the same period last year, Luo Bingsheng, vice president of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), said Tuesday.
The growth in output came on the back of increased domestic demand and expectations for steel price rises, Luo said.
China's economy expanded 11.1 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2010, with fixed-asset investment rising 25 percent to 11.4187 trillion yuan ($1.67 trillion).
But the rapid growth in production is leading to oversupply, with CISA figures showing total inventory at China's 22 large and medium-sized cities had reached 10.8 million tons by the end of June, up 34.16 percent since the beginning of the year.
Luo said oversupply may lead to a decline in steel prices and he forecast output to fall in the second half.
The increase in output is also affecting the environment.
CISA figures showed the sector's total electricity consumption in the first half jumped 29.3 percent year-on-year while exhaust gas emissions rose 13.18 percent."
Ciao.
ReplyDeleteSold XOM & SLB
ReplyDeletebought BHI @ 46
t3d - i don't think you can call a ktr on BHI quite yet. the stock was in a nice uptrend before today. usually KTR's work when the stock is trending down, then has a big gap down and then reverses. eBay and INTC had one back in early July. So too did SPY and pretty much the rest of the market for that matter.
ReplyDelete"David - not sure if you've looked at your AMB chart lately:
ReplyDeletehttp://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf "
I have, TOF, and it is not showing anything bullish to me. The Fed is obviously on hold now and is not helping the markets, which explains why S&P has been flat for the year so far, just like AMB is flat for the year.
Just like 2nd_ave, I decided to stop my day trading until I see that the market has picked up a certain direction. For now, my plan is to get out of my long positions before the next leg down -- a "legacy" long position not only produces losses in a downtrend but also constrains my capital from being deployed into market-independent vehicles, such as UNG, SGG, etc.
ReplyDeleteThe tight stop I placed on UCO yesterday at $10.90 was hit today at exactly $10.90, which was UCO's low for the day. Oh well...
PB said
ReplyDeletee5, what do you think of this one? Its only 30 min away to go look at.
class A open ocean;good sailing reports; first class builder. check forums some small problems w/ delamination maybe rudder tube. looks like stuffing box might be a tough get to.
why is it on lake michigan? Elmer probably only used it for shack- up or showplace small personal get togethers
if diesel has a mounted hour clock i'd bet <100 hours. nobody wants it on lake michigan . euro us$ 46-50k? stink bid $17k might buy it in sept. 11.5' beam will ship overland w/o special traffic precautions beyond signage.
however you must bring wife. all that room, luxurious fittings might convince her
that she could get used to tying up any where in the world. and you can afford a paid captain and wife team once in a while.
it probably has US docs which eliminates state taxes?
nice honeymoon cruise up st laurence river stop over quebec city fool around through 1000 island,turn starboard at the atlantic ;down west to boston, nyc . winter over in SC or further south about where you think floating dock area will be. buy into a low cost membership yacht cub. mom then has easy opps to sleep or eat ashore play cards and etc, you get fair priced dock space and a beach head to scope out and wait for the right priced property,
nice way to start you both off into your new life style.
e5
FED on hold - That's my impression as well.
ReplyDeleteI doubt anyone has seen this article because ut wasn't mentioned here yet but it appears China has been acquiring gold in a stealthy way:
ReplyDelete"China's Ore Demand Flies Under the Radar
A boatload of sandy, gray muck set out from Alaska a week ago, bound for China.
Buried inside the detritus were tiny flecks of gold that China National Gold Group Corp. plans to extract.
The shipment is one of many filled with mineral-rich matter that are sailing into Chinese ports and forming a key, but little-noticed, part of efforts to sate the nation's demand for raw materials.
The Alaskan gold won't appear in China's official imports report or in trade data from major commodity exchanges or bullion markets.
China's purchases of copper scrap and investments in oil-sands projects in Canada also fly under the radar, publicly disclosed but not widely watched.
Observers say the low-grade ore making its way to China's shores adds to evidence that Chinese demand for raw materials is greater than standard indicators show, and greater than many investors realize.
Investors instead closely track China's consumption of widely sought commodities, like gold bullion, refined copper and crude oil.
Signs that its hunger is rising or falling can move those markets, and help define its broader economic growth.
During this year's first half, for instance, China's refined copper imports fell 13.5%, a decline of 239,000 tons from the same period last year—an apparent sign of weaker demand.
But China raised imports of copper scrap and concentrate, which needs further processing.
The 362,000 tons of added copper was enough to turn China's imports to a net gain, according to Barclays Capital."
And there's additional verbage from this story at:
http://chinhdangvu.blogspot.com/2010/07/chinas-ore-demand-flies-under-radar.html
PCLN is up 39 bucks AH.
ReplyDeleteT3D- 46?? I see you overpay like I do ;)
ReplyDeleteMark mistake 43.60
ReplyDeleteT3D- David loves to catch me when I do that! Good job with XOM/SLB. I thought really hard about XOM a couple of weeks ago, but had enough in that sector.
ReplyDelete100% cash and bored as hell right now.
Any of you guys follow SYKE?
ReplyDeleteHere's a simple scan (via Stockcharts) of what I believe are Vad's Baseline Trading Vehicles. Vad certainly uses new daily info, but LVS, WFC, RIMM appear often
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/M2ZhOTM0
Any opinions???
Not sure what your asking Kyle.
ReplyDeleteTOF, thanks for clarification ktr, really did not think that was the set-up. When bsi posted those I had 8 straight wins selling options on his calls. I really should get the book he noted on ktr's, but really wish I could just scan for the set-up.
ReplyDeleteMark, just seeing if anyone is looking. I really do not know what I was thinking when I typed that. I actually miss XOM already and will buy on any pullback.
The mkt is confusing as can be, maybe this is a bottom forming an we should be long, but since I really have no good feel for its direction I just play light.
Kyle, looked at your screen, but do not know enough of its characteristics to make a comment.
David - Maybe I'm just stupid, but I don't believe that day trading has anything to do with general market direction. There are times when Vad will talk about general market movement (usually NQ in his trading universe) being helpful, but it's usually pattern based (DB, C&H, IC&H, DBI, JBE, etc).
ReplyDeleteSo just to clarify on my thinking about GLD...today's econ reports suggest to me further evidence that deflation is setting in. After going through the inventory a couple of weeks ago after I said that housing looked like it was ready to bounce, it was pretty clear that housing still has another 2 to 3 years at minimum before it clears away excess inventory. With that being the case and with most people knowing this and probably still having problems getting jobs, the result is that people will not buy now because they know they can get it cheaper later...that's the definition of deflation.
ReplyDeleteSo I think this will have a negative impact on Gold. Add to this that AMB hasn't been going back up, which reinforces the idea that the Fed is probably done with QE/additional stimulus because of the political pressure it is getting with the upcoming elections, then I don't see any real reason for gold to continue marching higher over the next couple of months. No politician in their right mind is going to want to continue piling on more debt through stimulus packages in front of the upcoming elections. And this same thing is happening all over the world right now.
I have read a lot about more and more institutional money coming out of gold lately. Add to this that technically gold looks to be making a series of lower highs and lower lows over the past 5 or 6 weeks and I think there is a chance to do well shorting gold. The risk / reward here is pretty favorable. I will stop myself out at the equivalent of around 118.3 or so.
Mark - Both Landry & Vad have their 'Preferred' Trading Universe. I'm trying to get across the point that Vad DOES NOT trade in the LOW VOLUME BULL-SHIT stocks that we focus on. He makes most of his bread on reading movements in very HIGH volume stocks like LVS, WFC, etc. Check his logs.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete