Tuesday, August 24, 2010

8/24/10 Whole Lotta Love



That's what this market needs right now if it's to stay above 10,000/1000.

23 comments:

  1. 2nd_ave: here are some latest thoughts on housing from Barry Ritholtz:

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/media-appearance-cnbc%E2%80%99s-fast-money-82410/

    Could it be that your view of buying a house being the best financial decision one could make is based on the assumption that the post WWII demand for housing is going to continue for a few more decades?

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  2. I'm actually thinking of getting 50% long.

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  3. Wednesday opens with a gap-up/bounce, followed by another leg down.

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  4. I think they want even lower prices than these:

    "S&P downgrades Irish government debt rating"

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  5. Been burnt once too often. My money stays out and in shiny metal. Let them play their paper confetti games all they like without me for a while. The government and Fed need to reap the noxious weeds they have sown. When they get so desperate that they decide not to raise taxes at the end of the year, it might present another opportunity.

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  6. David-

    Good point- demand for housing may remain flat or go down from here. However, demand will vary by location. The Peninsula/Silicon Valley remains an attractive place to live (climate, schools, cultural diversity, locally-based companies), and we're unlikely to see the kind of price declines taking place in Antioch, Modesto, or Sacramento. We may even experience muted demand throughout your entire lifetime- but it will have no impact on my plans to enjoy the benefits of home ownership for the balance of mine ;)

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  7. 2nd- Have you had your house appraised yet? Mine's on Mon. How did the value come back.

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  8. No. Hope to schedule one this week.

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  9. my take on this is we haven't hit the bottom in real estate. Until they solve the employment problem, housing is in free fall.

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  10. and mark, 2nd and david are in a bubble so probably won't crash as long as the technology is growing.

    david told us about the upcoming roaring 20's and it made alot of sense to me but still a couple of years out.

    david, maybe you want to tell us more ?

    vb

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  11. A H&S pattern has now completed on Russell 2000 over the past 2 months:

    http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=NYBOT_TFS.U10.E&v=d6&t=l&a=50&w=1

    Supposedly, the most bullish sign is a H&S pattern resolving in the bullish direction, just like in July 2009.

    S&P is also close to the key 1040 support level. If the market rallies from here, then I'll close all my puts and will only have long positions.

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  12. vb, all I know about "roaring 20s" is coming from this article:

    http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2010/08/20/how-we-get-through-this-mess.aspx

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  13. Right now, I'll take the roaring Wed-Fri....

    David- Patricia is scanning some stuff I'll send in an e-mail and will give you a call.

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  14. Presently in a long/short position, since early August with a bias on short. Still have mucho cash.

    My subscriber technical service says its the early stages of a bear and that will not change until passing 1090 SPX when it will revert to a weak continuation of the bull in all three time frames.

    Its probably such a close call because all three of the EMAs are close together (20,63,200). That is just my interpretation of what partially goes on inside the black box. (EMA 63 is the intermediate term and is the geometric average of the other two).

    Anyway, I now trust this thing and will not go long now.

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  15. I could use a roaring wed - fri


    I think we get a bounce tomorrow and I will sell - hoping it wont be a cat bounce like today

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  16. In fact, if IWM rises above 61, I am closing my IWM puts.

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  17. IWM- It's really at that point isn't it....

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  18. These prices still aren't low enough to motivate me into adding, I'll wait until sellers aren't the primary active participants.

    Sure seems like there was a definite target today that required a quick bout of selling by someone in order to hit.

    End of month coming, are we simply witnessing some sort of adjustment or balancing effect that must be accomplished by end of month?

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  19. My original plan was to buy SD at $4.25 and at $4 on the way down. Then I remembered that buying on the way down (and holding for a long-term) is occasionally a terribly wrong thing to do, while buying on the way up and placing a stop is never a terribly wrong thing to do. So now that SD has dropped below my first target level, I am placing a buy stop limit order on it at $4.20/$4.25 for 500 shares. Still keeping the position size small, so as not to get maxed out in my SD investment too early. Its intraday high today was $4.16, so if it rises to $4.20 tomorrow, then it will probably be in a "bounce" mode, and buying at the beginning of a bounce is not such a bad idea, as long as I then set a stop so as to "not let a profit turn into a loss."

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  20. Just bought 500 more shares of HNU.TO at CAD$4.25. I am betting on contango not becoming horrible in the weeks ahead...

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