Ten minutes, I exited AMAT @ 10.50, which was 0.10 below the ask of 10.60. Normally, I wouldn't hit a bid that far below the ask.
But I'm seeking shelter from the storm. Taking a $200 hit to open the day, but it's an acceptable price for a place in the harbor/being allowed to disembark.
TBT bidding at 29.77...
ReplyDeleteCSCO diving below 21. HPQ headed below 38?
ReplyDeleteHoping to see real panic today, which would justify at least a ST trade on the long side.
ReplyDeleteI would avoid the potential bull trap of buying at the open. Prices seem low, but they can dive much lower- panic selling during margin calls can be as spectacular as panic buying during short squeezes.
ReplyDeleteInteresting times indeed- I see BC made a 'lateral move' out of (1x) EEM into 3x EDC yesterday. Even more impressive is the willingness to share.
ReplyDelete2nd - any trouble with ah orders via fido? tried to place a few orders but nothing filled, screens are going nuts so maybe there was a data flow error?
ReplyDeletejb- I had no problems selling AMAT this morning.
ReplyDeleteLandry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
The market obviously sold off hard. This action keeps it multi-week lows. It also has it nearing the bottom of its trading range.
If this range gets taken out, it would put the market at new lows for the year.
Many sectors are already at new lows for the year. Previously strong areas are now beginning to weaken.
If you nibbled at any shorts recently, look to trail and scale.
Since we're oversold and the futures are getting hit fairly hard pre-market, for the aggressive, you might look to play a dead cat bounce (day trade only!) in the Ps.
For the most part though, continue to sit on your hands.
ok, thx. I made some changes under the preferences tab prior to placing my orders, sure hope I didn't screw something up.
ReplyDeleteI could see some "panic" this a.m. but I wonder if there are enough players around to pump up the vol enough for a full blown shake out.
you leaning major sell off today?
If we in fact hit new lows for the year, then I would agree with Pat Veech in thinking it would 'unless a torrent of selling.' For Pat, the 'Maginot Line' is SPX 1040.
ReplyDeletetof- You dodged a bullet, my friend ;)
ReplyDelete2nd - it's not much of a bullet, but i agree. i still don't see terrible amounts of fear out there / too many people looking to go long. which makes me wonder why i have any money long right now.
ReplyDeleteThe above was meant to be 'unLEASH a torrent of selling,' of course. What does the Freudian slip indicate- I don't know.
ReplyDeleteEDC is down close to -4%. It was a lateral pass to a halfback who just got blitzed. Hopefully his GDX position size is offsetting the hit.
ReplyDeleteStrange....not so bad here.
ReplyDeleteBounce in play. I doubt it holds.
ReplyDeleteInteresting to see both DELL/HPQ green with all that's going on with 3par.
ReplyDelete2nd- That would be my ST call as well...
ReplyDeleteas expected vol is still pathetic...i'm going to try to sit on my hands until after the new home sales rpt.
ReplyDeletehere comes the spike down with new homes report coming up at 10:00.
ReplyDeletei sold some PIR at $5.81 that i bought yesterday at $5.93. waiting for the spike down to enter a long bounce.
Finanacials leading us lower.
ReplyDeleteSPX 1043.
ReplyDeleteEDC closing in on -5%. Is there a stop in place?
RAS is back to 1.40. Can't believe I sold that sucker for 2.30.
ReplyDeletecheck out vgz - vista gold
ReplyDeleteflying
sso@32.91, chart play.
ReplyDeleteOK, that spike down seems to have 'exhausted' the selling- temporarily.
ReplyDeletesell limit filled at 33.17...i like this new indicator combo
ReplyDeletei think we can go long here...
ReplyDeletelong GCI at $12.04.
long PIR at $5.88.
bought a few Sept and Oct $12 calls in GCI. Stock is trading at 5.12 times earnings.
ReplyDeleteToday's broad theme hasn't changed much, no buyers...
ReplyDeleteI don't know, tof. No real panic has kicked in yet, other than a minor capitulation earlier this morning.
ReplyDeletetza@41.08
ReplyDeletei see some solid volume in GCI and buyers there and PIR and homebuilders.
ReplyDeleteAdding to SWN @ 32.00
ReplyDeletetza stopped out 40.98.
ReplyDeleteWonder how the Friday GDP report will look?
ReplyDeletetza back on@40.72
ReplyDeletewhat's the story w/SWN Mark? for a trade?
ReplyDeleteCP - can't see how GDP is better than 1.2-1.5 given the massive revision to net exports. what's you guess?
ReplyDeletestopped out, again, 40.60...time to shut fido off for awhile, managed to go from green to red in just a few mins
ReplyDeletejb - The GDP could be close to zero or even negative, I suppose. I'm interested in the reaction b/c the number is likely to have an impact?
ReplyDeleteSWN- I consider it the premier Natty play. I'm comfortable holding this one into winter.
ReplyDeletewow. PIR is running now. probably should be taking some off.
ReplyDeleteStinky in for CADC.
ReplyDeletethx Mark.
ReplyDeletewow CP, my guess is that a contraction in gdp is not in the market so if we do get a negative # the sell off would be severe.
nice trade TOF!
ReplyDeleteNasdaq futes green.
ReplyDeleteGot to run...Inching close to green on the day. GL my friends....
Nice call, tof.
ReplyDeleteWNR - small probe position
ReplyDeleteDollar is rising, I suppose that might be the result of S&P's downgrade of Ireland.
ReplyDeletejeez...when i look at GCI i wonder why i don't just go all in long on that one. it's trading at 5 times current year's earnings and 3.5 times free cash flow. the company has the earnings power right now to pay out a 10% dividend.
ReplyDeletei know, i know...newspapers are dying. but this company has 30% of its biz in online companies like careerbuilder.com and cars.com. and the newspaper biz is still highly profitable.
I've been wearing short trousers in the hot summer weather but this week has been cooler, so I switched to long trousers.
ReplyDeletePoor Louie peep-doodle hasn't seen his "momma" for several days, he doesn't recognize me and doesn't come running to greet me now.
a new one popped up: BXUB@42.89
ReplyDeletegonna be a nice 110 here today again CP, no long pants here at the trading station.
jb - I'll bet the humidity there is very low though. Ours has been running 70%+, which makes a huge difference, but I know how stifling the central valley heat can seem, you get a good feeling for the contrast when cresting the Pacheco pass into the valley mid-summer. That's where you're tempted to roll up the windows and cut the AC on for the ride down into the valley.
ReplyDeleteI'll bet your lawn is Bermuda grass.
CP - yep, about 10-15%, 70%+ must be brutal. drive over the pass all the time and the weather difference can be 20-30 degrees.
ReplyDeletegrass? heck no, 3+ acres of weeds...;(
NLY - Could be a buy here...
ReplyDeletei'm scared being long but i see XRT and XHB up on the day...i think i would be more scared being short. there are definitely values out there in the market. GCI is a perfect example. what are people waiting for? for it to trade at 2 times cash flow?
ReplyDeleteJust bought 500 more shares of HNU.TO at CAD$4.25. I am betting on contango not becoming horrible in the weeks ahead...
ReplyDeleteJust bought 500 shares of SSO for a day trade at $33.28. Placed a sell stop at $33.13.
ReplyDeleteAdded 200 SSO at $33.24 and included these into my stop at $33.13.
ReplyDeleteSSO just had a spike down that stopped at $33.20 and then got reversed. So I have just moved my stop to $33.19.
ReplyDeleteSSO has moved up even more, so now I am now splitting my stop into 2 parts: at $33.24 for 200 shares that I picked up at $33.24 and still at $33.19 for 500 shares I picked up at $33.28.
ReplyDeleteYet another nice spike up in SSO! I am moving the sell stop for 500 shares to $33.28, so as not to let a profit turn into a loss.
ReplyDeleteTBT green!
ReplyDeleteThe S&P chart looks like it will inevitably go green soon.
ReplyDeleteSilver still on a roll (SLV), Palladium (PALL) still doing well, base metals (DBB) at high of day.
ReplyDeleteMoving up my stop on 200 shares of SSO from $33.24 to $33.34.
ReplyDeleteOil is green too, nice little hump-day action to suck in longs for Friday's GDP "disappointment"?
ReplyDeleteI'll just keep what I've got, thanks anyway, all this selling and buying is just playing cat and mouse with computers programmed to pick your pocket anyway, they can't keep selling forever but who knows when their little game of pushing the envelope will end?
shame on me, BXUB has zero vol, sold out of that one....no good for trading imo
ReplyDeletenow, if I'd been smart like David I would have stuck with SSO
Moving up the stop on 500 shares of SSO to $33.38.
ReplyDeleteGoing LONG.
ReplyDeleteMoving the buy-and-hold into equal weightings in FSRBX/FSELX/FSENX (banking/electronics/energy).
Also picking up WFC @ 23.24 and BAC @ 12.54.
OK, I just sold at $33.44 the 200 shares of SSO I picked up at $33.24, for a $40 gain.
ReplyDeleteOK, changing my SSO sell stop order at $33.38 to a sell limit order at $33.68.
ReplyDeleteGoing Long newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4494 comments) on Wed, 08/25/2010 - 14:35 #67829
ReplyDeleteMoving the buy-and-hold into FSRBX/FSELX/FSENX.
Opened positions in BAC/WFC @ 12.54/23.24.
If BC's willing to stick his neck out, so am I.
ReplyDeleteScrew it. SSO has just had an amazing spike up, and I just sold at $33.64 the 500 shares I picked up at $33.28, for a profit of $180, which when combined with the $40 profit on the previous bunch of SSO gives a respectable $220 profit.
ReplyDeleteWhen I learn to not lose money consistently in my day trading, I will increase my position sizes. For now they are just "training" sizes.
Turning off my real time "live" charts and going back to my day job.
Nice trade, David!
ReplyDeleteThis is some strong market action today -- XHB is flying! When such a strong action happens at a critical support level when the market is oversold, we may be starting a new leg up. So I just sold at $5.01 2 November $62 puts on IWM that I purchased at $4.15 and also sold at $8.78 1 December $110 SPY put that I purchased at $8.40. My point is not to take some minor profits here but simply to increase my long exposure.
ReplyDeleteglad i didn't sell PIR and GCI when i had an impulse to do so earlier today, but i might take profits now. options on GCI are already up 35%
ReplyDeleteJust bought 100 shares of PST at $40.02 and placed a sell stop at today's low of $39.40. This is NOT a day trade.
ReplyDeleteOn a second thought, picked up 100 more shares of PST at $40.02 and added them to my stop at $39.40. Even with this increased position size, my maximum loss is $120 (if my stop gets triggered accurately), which is a loss that I can live with.
ReplyDeleteEveryone is partying now, the good mood is up in the air, but what about the poor UNG? Let's not forget her!
ReplyDeletetook my profits on the GCI Sept $12 calls. SOld them at $.85 that I bought at $.65.
ReplyDeletemy short term plan: add to 3x inverse etf positions, some today and more tomorrow if the market continues to move higher, then plan on selling on the negative knee jerk reaction to what I expect to be a very negative gdp print on fri.
ReplyDeletesold my Oct $11 Calls on GCI at $1.85 that I bought at $1.65.
ReplyDeletetof and david are racking up the coin today
ReplyDeleteon the flip side...BRK/B, FDX, FCX, UPS are all looking ugly.
ReplyDeleteSold PIR at $6.13.
ReplyDeleteBought more REDF at $1.92.
ReplyDeleteI'm not used to having so many positions on. 2 minutes ago I was up 700 bucks and now I'm up 1,400.
ReplyDeletethat's a good problem to have bro!
ReplyDeleteI am following you with REDF, TOF. Bought 2000 shares at $1.92 and set a sell stop for them at $1.80. Maximum loss on this trade is $240, which is something I can live with, especially considering the fact that REDF is making higher lows since mid-July.
ReplyDelete2,500...Let's see if I get kicked in the teeth tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteWanna bet V shows up for day 3 in selling on strength??
ReplyDeleteWhat a difference a day makes....WFC/C/BAC/GS/MS all have imbalances on the buy side.
ReplyDeleteGot my wife to let me sell her DGP with gold at $1243.
ReplyDeleteFor gold to go higher we need much worse than expected economic news, ie jobless claims tomorrow and gdp on friday. Things are already too pessimistic, IMO, for things to land much worse than expected. Anyway, WHO is left having a job that could get laid off?
Weak close...
ReplyDeleteWow, did superman show up and solve all the world's economic problems?
ReplyDeleteNo, I think either:
1) We're heading for more downside and longs are being set up for a GDP shearing (in which case I'll add if prices fall enough), or
2) They'll keep running it up into resistance for another repeat sell off. Which is ST acceptable for my current long positions.
CP, the world's problems affect where the stocks will be 1 year from now. If you are concerned about where the stocks will be 2 weeks from now, then you should look carefully at the current amount of optimism/pessimism in the market. If a lot of pessimism is present but the price starts moving up, then the PRICE is right and an amazing short squeeze can take place.
ReplyDeleteAlso, don't forget that stocks are much more responsive to fiscal&monetary stimulus than to the economy, and so the stocks can go up now simply because expectations of QE2 have increased. Besides, the amazing drop in Treasury yields over the past few months have just made stocks that much more attractive (for a short term, until the economy actually catches up with the bond yields and makes such low levels justified).
David - I can envision TLT printing $110.00 in the not so distant future, especially if Friday's GDP data disappoint. All of the backward-looking data recently presented has served only to take the forward-looking market down, it seems the market reacts to data instead of leading them, there have been a steady stream of disappointments beginning with Greece.
ReplyDeleteI can also see us filling the 8/23-24 gap from 1060 to 1070, perhaps tomorrow morning, and then selling off for the remainder of the day tomorrow in preparation for the GDP report which then may take us back under 1040.
ReplyDeleteOk, but then what happens if/when rates rise? They can't keep playing QE to the moon forever and expect anyone to still want the bonds? Or are we Japan 20 years ago times 5?
ReplyDeleteRight on Cheapy...."They can't keep playing QE to the moon forever and expect anyone to still want the bonds?"
ReplyDeleteHere is a paraphrase of what Felix Zulauf says about the macro situation: Monetary policy has worked in the past. Now its different because of too much debt, everywhere. MP not working. In spite of stimulus, restocking inventory and intervention. Now the market is in charge.
IMO, like 1987, eventually there is a revolt
ReplyDeletecheapy, I read this sentence somewhere: "The exchange floors around the world are littered with bodies of traders who tried to short the Japanese debt 1990's."
ReplyDeleteSo I think right now buying PST or TBT is for traders only, who are ready to be stopped out.
ReplyDeleteYes and in 87 the debt had just begun it's climb a few years before. What the system is faced with now will make 87 look puny.
ReplyDelete"Have you ever solved a problem by kicking the can down the road?" Quote from Kyle Bass on CNBC when he asked the rhetorical question of the host in response to him. That ended the interview.
LOL, yes, and their interest rates are STILL almost nothing and their depression never has ended.
ReplyDeleteThe correlation I see there is that the depression lasts as long as the excessive debt exists.
I don't even want to think about that possible outcome here...
http://www.rcwhalen.com/pdf/2010-PB-03_Whalen.pdf
ReplyDeleteIMO, The bigger and more active the pond, the easier it is to fake everyone out, for a while, anyway...
"I don't even want to think about that possible outcome here..."
ReplyDeleteFelix has thought about it a lot: China in early stage decline. Europe in worst shape. No winners anywhere. All economies now move together. Commodities will go down too. Gold is different and is the best storage for savings in next 5 years. There is not enough gold for a standard but it will be a part. Does not know how re-structuring will work but it must be done and will be painful. Strong leaders emerge in a world of pain. Euro will collapse but not the European Union. Not buying now. Are in a structural bear market for last ten years. S&P to collapse to 500 to align with historical Book Value ratio of less than one.
Man, imagine what will happen to your favorite stock if S&P drops to 500... If 2nd_ave manages to stay in cash until that point (or at least to stop himself out quickly after any foray into the falling market), he will be able to pick great stocks for pennies...
ReplyDeleteNice little breakout for MMR...
ReplyDeleteIf I haven't already said so, I'm expecting to see 1070 soon and then it's down from there again.
ReplyDeleteI'm gonna lighten my load a bit at that point, or at least take on a hedge.
david - i was thinking about this very same scenario (s&p at 500) today because we have some extra money in our furniture business that we're thinking about investing with. i suspect at that level companies with no debt and great future prospects will be trading at levels that GCI is trading at now (5 times earnings and 3.5 times free cash flow).
ReplyDeleteNotice TNA is now priced back above SSO.
ReplyDeleteCP- Your picture is freaking me out man...
ReplyDeleteDavid/TOF- Down to 500. Have you guys really thought through what that would mean besides cheap stocks? Double the unemployment we have now. Sate/pension funds ruined. Retail would never come back to the market for a generation....
ReplyDeleteAnd most importantly, I'd be out of work for good. No thanks.
Mark - It's just an Oompa Loompa from Willie Wonka's chocolate factory, a person of color identical to John Boehner's orange spray-on tan.
ReplyDeleteBoehnner scares me too! Guys the male vanity equivalent to Pelosi...The HORROR....
ReplyDeleteOkay, let's compare the color:
ReplyDeletePretty damn close, huh?
ReplyDeleteAhggggggg!!!!!!! :))
ReplyDeleteFWIW I'm kinda eying 1070-1080 ish also.
My subscription algo doesn't mess around when it goes bear long term. Target is 666.79, the March 09 low. When that is breached it treats it as a confirmation that support was broken and picks another lower target. Its all based on TA. No human emotion at all.
ReplyDeleteIt will take a world of hurt and maybe riots to convince the rulers that the system is broken and their house of cards has collapsed.
Illini- Your right. I left out riots before...God I hope not.
ReplyDeleteIllini- Post a link to it. I'd like to check it out.
ReplyDeleteTo further flesh out my plan...IF I'm lucky enough to get back to 1080, I should be at new YTD highs. I will then put in tight stops and see what happens. If I get stopped out, I'll scalp for Sept. and hopefully re-enter in Aug. for a push up into the elections. Of course, that could all change tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteOkay, the vanity theme says it all concerning the mentality of WDC, enough said...
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeletewww.stopsandtargets.com
ReplyDeleteI subscribe at the low end at $30/mo. That is the 3 major indices only but a high majority of stocks follow the indices. To get individual stocks, which I would like, is a bit expensive for the size of my portfolio (which is cash and hedged presently while trading GLD short term).