Wednesday, August 25, 2010
8/25/10 Songbird/Don't Stop
The daily grind of trading prices can easily burn you out. By the time I settled down at my desk for lunch, ready to watch the sell-off accelerate, I was barely cognizant of the price action. That's when it began to dawn on me that stocks were catching bids. AMAT/CSCO/HPQ/INTC were springing to life- the Four Horsemen were snarling with Nietzche, 'That which does not kill us makes us stronger. And if you gaze for long into an abyss, the abyss gazes also into you.'
I had earlier in the week selected FSRBX/FSELX/FSENX as retirement fund candidates due to heavy weightings in WFC/INTC/AMAT/XOM. I also had BAC near the top of the watchlist as approaching a -40% drop from the April high.
So there was little hesitation in buying all of the above as the indexes turned around.
No opinion as to whether we retest/exceed the lows. At some point we all need to act, and today seemed to be as good a time as any to reverse the 'Sell in May' decision-> now 60% invested/40% cash.
Now that I've made the decision to go long, I'm going to wedge my feet against the slope, and hope the Four Horsemen 'don't stop.' The Pale Rider is never far behind.
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It's hard for me to accept markets having sold off this far without quickly recovering, much further than I'd anticipated based upon where we were just a few months ago.
ReplyDeleteAs time drags on and we learn more about the economy there seems to be no end to the bad news and a lack of leadership, like an abandoned ship adrift in a hurricane rapidly closing in on a perilous reef.
CP,
ReplyDeleteIt may recover some but 1219.8 seems to be a very significant top, per TA and per the S&T algo. At that point and after a confirmation, all the bells and whistles sounded almost everywhere. (I am relying here on a blogger that has knowledge of the higher echelons of the S&T algo which I do not).
illini- 1219.8 was 13.5% higher and 4 months ago. There's been a great deal of damage inflicted on many stock prices (BAC, for instance). There have been a couple of painful bounces (for shorts) along the way down, and likely to be a few more. As always, we trade the ups and downs as best we can.
ReplyDeleteI realize many of you are short term and very short term traders. I too am occasionally. I am trying very hard to be on the correct side for the intermediate and long term.
ReplyDeleteI'm with Illini, I would much prefer not having to time moves on a daily or even weekly basis but when the S&P falls this far in such a short period of time and taking into account the flurry of negative economic news which seemingly is being ignored for the most part by WDC, sure reminds me of the months leading up to our last presidential election.
ReplyDeletePeople and businesses are on pins and needles here, scared to death and prepared to pull the sell trigger at a moments notice. So where the hell is the president? Out on the campaign trail busy representing everyone except for those he should be concentrating on. This sends a pretty clear message to the people that they're not worthy of his time.
I'm simply not impressed with this failure to perform when I see sentiment rapidly melting in the general public, not the improvement I'd been anticipating.
The first clues were telegraphed during the months leading up to the elections, and this surely feels like another repeat.
2nd- Great post. It reflects my issues exactly. At a some point we have to make a real trade with money behind it. Otherwise we're just kidding ourselves. Scalping a couple hundred bucks is fine, but in the long run, the odds move against you. We need to use the cash we have at moments we are comfortable with. Long or short.
ReplyDeleteGL my friend.
CP- Well said. Like Grym was fond of saying, over and over again, 'I voted for Obama once...'. I did also, this last time. THE last time. Problem is, the Rebs. are just as bad and the tea party is a joke. (Hands up in the air)
ReplyDeletei don't like getting into politics because quite frankly, do you think mccain would have done a helluva lot different? the dude (obama) was dealt a shitty hand. i'm talking 2-5 off suite versus pocket aces shitty hand. and he's forced to stay in the hand even after the flop shows an ace. he's hoping for a 3-4 to show up on the turn and the river for an inside straight draw. odds are what? 1 in 68 i believe...good luck with that.
ReplyDeleteTOF- No, I don't either, and glad we all don't spend a lot of time on it here. Given the choice last time, I'd still have voted for Obama. Man, are there ANY real leaders left who will take on such a crappy job?? Not the ones I know who could really make a run at it.
ReplyDeleteDon't forget wedding plan updates!!
I've had my say for tonight and it's much more than ever before. Good Nite all. CST you know.
ReplyDeleteCorrection: CDST of course.
ReplyDeleteCiao Illini... GO BEARS!!!
ReplyDeletemark - oh man, my hands are full with the wedding and everything else. i'm excited tho! we're getting closer and closer as we plan everything.
ReplyDeleteOK...I tried ti figure it out on my own. CDST?
ReplyDeleteTOF- Right one man. I'm excited for you. Only one tip. Make sure you hire a good photographer. We didn't and it was a disaster. We never have videotaped anything including our kids/wedding. Who has time to watch it? But great photos are there for viewing every time you pass a mantel or bedside table.
ReplyDeleteEnjoy it!!!!
No doubt Obama was dealt a crap sandwich custom built by a long line of poor decisions. I'm not talking about the past any more, I'm talking about the present.
ReplyDeleteHere ya go, I rarely find posts discussing current events here, just stuff about going long or whatever for some undetermined reason. Not sure why that is exactly but here's what Intel had to say yesterday:
ReplyDelete" * "Not long ago...'our research centers were without peer. No country was more attractive for start-up capital... We seemed a generation ahead of the rest of the world in information technology. That simply is no longer the case.'"
* "Otellini singled out the political state of affairs in Democrat-dominated Washington, saying: 'I think this group does not understand what it takes to create jobs. And I think they're flummoxed by their experiment in Keynesian economics not working.' "
* "If our tax rate approached that of the rest of the world, corporations would have an incentive to invest here," Otellini said. But instead, it's the second highest in the industrialized world, making the United States a less attractive place to invest--and create jobs--than places in Europe and Asia that are "clamoring" for Intel's business.""
CDST = central daylight savings time
ReplyDeleteHi- Is this the place to file for first time unemployment payments? I think I have everything I need.
ReplyDeleteyes, i can help you....but first i need your soc #, your banking info, mothers maiden name and all passwords, plus pls send me electronic access to all your accts - so we can send you your $$$
ReplyDeleteCP- I heard those comments from Otelini on TV I think. Spot on.
ReplyDeleteDamn, this line is long. Hope I'm not at the DMV...
Ummm....Can I just give you my wife instead?
ReplyDeleteno, sorry, all full up on women at this house...er office....NEXT
ReplyDeletequestion: how do you guys prioritize your time between investments (bottoms up analysis of company's and sectors) and trades (TA, news events, etc)? I cannot seem to find time for both, other than some of the screening I do on the weekends for investments, all other time I can squeeze out during the day I use for TA.
ReplyDeleteI was surprised when WFC was doing my re-fi. I had always used some bank/lender I'd never heard of. Better rates. I thought to myself they must all be gone now. A guest on CNBC just answered my question. The 5 big banks originate 65% of all loans. 4 years ago that # was 35. He pointed out that with such a small pool of originators, rates are not likely to drop further.
ReplyDeleteBro, same issue here. I spend my free time on co. specific research, talking with my clients, and picking my nose by the pool.
ReplyDeleteBC's opening comments not to be missed.
ReplyDeletejb- I start with the assumption that it's all bullshit. I read some of the headlines, drill down to actual numbers once in awhile, and watch the price action. That's about it.
ReplyDelete2nd - i only check in w/cara occasionally, is it a big deal for him and his flock that he's admitting trading errors?
ReplyDeleteSo my question is how long before this life line (claims) will be jerked away from us?
ReplyDeletewhy do people short an etf when there is an inverse etf available (ex - shorting TLT instead of just buying TBT)
ReplyDeleteJB- I don't either anymore, but I'm sure that's 2nd's thought. I believe that all happened as told, but other than that, I don't believe any of his BS.
ReplyDeleteI don't know bro, we have a rise in continuing claims and the futes rally. maybe government sucks is actively buying this a.m.
ReplyDeleteJB- If you can find a leveraged ETF to short you have erosion on your side if it's a longer term hold. TLT is unleveraged and TBT is. FAS/FAZ is a better example.
ReplyDeleteJB- I have continuing claims 4456K v. 4518K (prior). That's the one I was watching.
ReplyDeleteJB,
ReplyDeleteMark answered you but here is my 2 cents anyway:
They do it to get rid of the longer term decay effect of the 2x and 3x products. In your example, however, shorting TLT is not too good because of the interest you would have to pay.
Mark - so the carrying cost of shorting is outweighed by the positive impact of erosion, makes sense - thx!....some of the SOH folks (TK) are shorting TLT instead of buying TBT...any idea why they do it with non-levered etf's?
ReplyDeleteThx illini....that's what I don't get on SOH, how can they overcome the borrowing costs of shorting TLT, at least when compared to buying TBT?
ReplyDelete2nd,
ReplyDeleteI still follow BC every day and I do not recall him ever posting his trades in such detail. Admitting mistakes even.
Looks like SPY will be up 5+ at open. Jobs report.
ReplyDeletejb- With none levered etf's it make no sense to me. And Illini is of course right about the interest. Some etf's also pay a divy, so you need to be careful not to hold it through x or you pay the divy.
ReplyDeleteMark- My comments about bullshit were actually in response to jb's question about doing research- I don't do it for the simple reason I don't believe the numbers, and I don't think it helps.
ReplyDeleteLandry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
The market recovered after probing multi-week lows. This action suggests that it has the potential to bounce from oversold.
However, that in and of itself, isn't reason enough to get excited.
Many areas, especially tech, are trying to break down out of the bottom of their trading ranges.
Many previously stronger areas and individual stocks are losing steam.
So far, the market remains sideways. Therefore, for the most part, continue to sit on your hands.
Futures are firm pre-market.
Mark- Well, it could be a one-day wonder rally. I just take it one moment at a time.
ReplyDeleteillini- The real surprise was the lateral move from a 1x into a 3x on Tuesday (a high-risk move which indicates a gaming mentality)-> if he'd stayed in the 1x, I don't think he would have been shaken out.
ReplyDeleteSmart trend is saying we go back below 10,000...
ReplyDeleteThe trade-term trend will struggle some more today to establish a base at current levels, but the rally will be unlikely to hold the DJIA above 10,000 for very long.Today will bring new information, discussed below, about employment and tomorrow revised GDP numbers, neither of which appears likely to meaningfully stem the pessimistic tide now sending stock prices lower.
2nd- I know you were referring to the research question, saying it's bullshit. The BC BS comment was mine alone.
ReplyDeleteGL cowboy.
Damn...HUN is flying. Can't find any news.
ReplyDeleteBC - Spotty estrogen replacement therapy?
ReplyDeleteCP - did you ever get into SLV? hope so as you were right about that thing starting to move.
ReplyDeleteSmart trend - Couldn't have said it better myself.
ReplyDeletethx again Kyle - freestockcharts is fantastic, I'm learning more and more each day.
ReplyDeleteMy modest goal is a close above 1060.
ReplyDeleteKinda a wired thought watching my stocks. I'm guessing the MM is driving them down to fill orders. We'll see.
jb - Good deal man. That's one of the nice things about these blogs...lots of eyes looking at lots of different things & a willingness to share. Here's another one I use...
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/inplay
MMR- Wow. To bad I lost track of that one.
ReplyDeleteSLV - Nope, haven't been in a buying mood for days. I still think PM's will begin moving with equities at some point if the market keeps selling.
ReplyDeleteI think recent lack of selling in PM's has even kept me from shorting equities.
i know you guys are thinking 1070 but wasn't 1,080 the line in the sand on the way down? logic suggests that is the resistance mark on the way up. having said this, i'm not counting out the feds propensity to print money.
ReplyDeleteFD:
long REDF, GCI, SPY. total about 60% long.
Kyle - been on yahoo forever and never saw that, thx!
ReplyDeleteMark - based on the early look, seems like 1055 is going to hold so 1060++ could be the close today
tof - was looking at some fib lvls last night. Using the 'real body' of the candlesticks...
ReplyDelete1021 - 1062 - 1074 - 1087 - 1127
from early Jul low to top of 'head' this month
FWIW
if we turn around and push back higher to me that's very bullish
ReplyDeleteDavid- Let's think this through and make a trade. Natty inventory report not really that bad. Spot hit 3.83. UNG at 6.40. Storage currently below 5 year seasonal averages. I'm thinking of a little longer term trade. Stop would be spot 3.75 ish.
ReplyDeleteIdea's?
David- Also the big natty players didn't even blink at the spike down in spot...
ReplyDeleteUNG - short the Jan 7 or 6 puts???
ReplyDeleteNice little push just know. Bears will have to cover for us to get some real action today.
ReplyDeleteSorry I'm such a chatty catty. Been sick all week and kinda feel better finally.
Kyle- Good thought.
ReplyDeletegood action in the 6's this a.m.
ReplyDeleteoverall higher highs and higher lows....but I don't really get where the buying is coming from so i'm going in SDS@34.65, expecting a quick pull back
APWR - sky diving today...
ReplyDeletesds off @34.77, top of the line.
ReplyDeleteglad you're feeling better bro!
BAC/WFC- closing positions @ 24.06/12.88. May elect to reopen later in the day.
ReplyDeleteTOF - I had looked the charts over I had identified 1070 or 1080 logical limits but considering we're still printing lower lows, who's gonna want to buy at the highest price under these conditions?
ReplyDeleteGood news on the current events horizon will be necessary, I can't locate my catalyst in the dark abyss.
In fact, upside limit could be less than 1070, for that matter.
UNG...OK, we've all seen this before. I'm putting a stinky on it to see if we test/break spot of 3.80 and spike back up. That makes my bid @ 6.28.
ReplyDeleteTOF- We need to come up with a plan to create some interest/volume in REDF.
ReplyDeleteI'd be happy as hell with a close right where I am right now.
ReplyDeleteFWIW...INTC has fleas. Woof Woof...
PAL - Moved up strongly on high relative volume, don't understand what this means but discretion tells me to sell here.
ReplyDeleteYesterday was a coin flip for me between adding to SWN or PXP. I lost....Later.
ReplyDeletePAL - Could be $500+ palladium, SWC has moved similarly.
ReplyDeleteBGZ - wasn't paying attention...C&H @ 16.10 lvl..we're selling off...
ReplyDeletesold my GCI at $12.50. i tell you what...today's action just proves how pathetic the rally attempt was yesterday. we could only muster up a move of 4 S&P points yesterday huh? that's not much of a turnaround. in past turnarounds we would have been up several %'s above the bottom. now i know why i'm only 50% long now.
ReplyDeleteShaking off weak hands...
ReplyDelete2nd - that might be all there is too it. Looking at BGZ (5day/5min)..gap up from 15.7 to 16.3 Tues morn..maybe we're just completing the RHS now @ the 16.2-16.5 range before afternoon updraft to fill the gap in BGZ????
ReplyDeleteok, i bought back into GCI at $12.50. I also bought some more REDF at $1.52 and bought some STT at $35.00.
ReplyDeletesorry...$1.92 on REDF
ReplyDeleteIMO, the questions are
ReplyDelete1) how bad will gdp revision be? lol, assuming its more honest than previous garbage/lies we were fed
2) what will ben say/do? he is obviously either been lying or clueless, but moves the market anyway
BWEN - Anyone?
ReplyDeletesans lying I can't see GDP better than 1.2 or so, given that there must be a big downward revision to the (eX-i) component.
ReplyDeleteas for ben, i really have no clue.
what's your guess??
Kyle- I don't know. Just think there needs to be a break in the selling.
ReplyDeleteUsually, sellers of banks/technology at these levels don't represent the 'smart money.'
ReplyDeletei'm on this call right now with Dell folks, I may need to get back into that stock....could be some interesting stuff coming down the pike. FD - my hit rate on forecasting the "pike" has been horrible!
ReplyDeleteYesterday RSI(7)'s were under 30, so I was expecting a bounce. Even though I'm holding onto my current long positions I expect this is just a bounce ahead of even lower prices.
ReplyDeleteIf I'm lucky, prices will increase enough to push RSI(7) back up to 70, which is where/when I'll place my hedge.
Long eBay at $22.88.
ReplyDeleteBP vs TOT - Decided to go w/ JC's reco re TOT
ReplyDeleteJim: Well, here's the problem... let me just give you... You know what I'm going to do? I'm going to give you a little imagery here. Royal Dutch, Total S.A.... they're all selling at a very, very low price. Total is a good example... a gigantic French company... because BP is like a foreign company. Total is at $46. It's $3 off its low... it yields 5.9%. How can I recommend BP, $6 off its low... with all the potential problems, when I've got a Total SA (TOT) yielding 6%? Nuh-uh... ix-nay. I am not going there. I remain convinced that BP will be an underperformer in the oil patch for as far as the eye can see. I don't want to be a total downer, so...
reloaded my wife's DGP that I sold yesterday at 33.14
ReplyDeleteafter seeing the trading today my first instinct is that the market is a buy here for a trade at the very least.
ReplyDelete"The gold-silver ratio (Au:Ag ratio) is presently 64.99 down from 68.21 Monday. At these levels a decrease in Au:Ag signals that fear is receding from the marketplace (at least for today)."
ReplyDeleteI see VXX has also relaxed a bit, confirming this indicator.
TOT vs BP - I've heard the same elsewhere, an observation that has merit IMO.
ReplyDeleteCP,
ReplyDeleteI was in and out of Broadwind as a long when it was in the 5-6 range, with mixed results. Glad I didn't hang with it. At todays price it seems a steal but they are losing money and it keeps going down. There has to be some good news to move it sometime, no?
DBB - Bounced off 50SMA yesterday, would've been a good entry level? A breakout over $20.25 would be nice testimony.
ReplyDeleteummm...yeah...maybe i'm wrong? argh.
ReplyDeleteBGZ - 2pm buying...let's see if it can clear the 16.50 lvl on volume...
ReplyDeletei tell ya what...if we do get a rebound, eBay sure looks strong here.
ReplyDeleteIllini - BWEN - This would be my choice of alternative energy plays at this juncture. Wind, along with transmission, makes more sense to me than the other alternative energy technologies.
ReplyDeleteThat said, not too long ago I watched on Charlie Rose as the Vestas CEO basically admitted their future doesn't look especially lucrative.
Tough call there, situation doesn't look good. A close over today's opening price might be briefly encouraging?
Wonder if Obama's Tuesday address will touch on anything other than the winding down of Iraqi combat?
Alternative energy - I kinda like the idea of solar water heating as well:
ReplyDelete"August 6, 2010 Where Did the Carter White House's Solar Panels Go?
One of the 32 solar-thermal panels that captured energy on the roof of the White House more than 30 years ago landed this week at a science museum in China.
As of this week, one will join the collection of the Solar Science and Technology Museum in Dezhou, China. Huang Ming, chairman of Himin Solar Energy Group Co., the largest manufacturer of such solar hot water heaters in the world, accepted the donation for permanent display there on August 5. After all, companies like his in China now produce some 80 percent of the solar water heaters used in the world today."
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=carter-white-house-solar-panel-array
AMAT/CSCO/INTC- picked them up @ 10.60/20.87/18.19.
ReplyDeletevb/shark- PAL is outperforming today!
ReplyDelete2nd - Have any opinion on WFR??? It's channeling and downside looks limited..
ReplyDeleteUNG- David, I'm glad you've been trading around it- if you don't trade around it, you might as well hand the fund a blank check...
ReplyDeleteKyle- For companies I've never heard of, it's dangerous to ask my opinion ;)
ReplyDeleteXIN - Wow!
ReplyDeletesso@33.27
ReplyDeleteshark - miss that guy...don't think he got speared at the beach do you????
ReplyDeletePAL - Palladium sinking here, back under $500.
ReplyDeleteI think he just got tired of watching PAL get speared.
ReplyDeletea close below 1,050 would be the first on this down move. i forgot that we didn't get a close below it the past 2 days. i doubt we'll be lucky again.
ReplyDeleteI am thinking that today's selling might be due to people bailing out ahead of tomorrow's GDP revision. So I suspect that expectations for tomorrow are pretty low now...
ReplyDeleteFAZ/BGZ - both moving up on volume
ReplyDeleteAs for UNG, I am just shocked at its recent decline in the face of storage over the past month growing at a slower rate than the 5-year average! If this keeps going on, then storage will soon hit the 5-year average (it is still above it but the gap is closing fast) and then it will hit the 5-year minimum, and then... What are the NG traders smoking???
ReplyDeleteI have to respect the potency of their stuff, however, and so I am still scaling into HNU.TO using small positions. In fact, the speed of the recent decline tells me that UNG will be at $6.2 in no time, and that's when I'll buy a little more HNU.TO (I bought some yesterday when UNG was at $6.54). Then, if UNG drops below $6, I'll sell a truckload of October $6 puts on UNG. If UNG drops to $5.50, I'll sell all my GLD and CEF (about 1/4 of my port) and will put all that money in HNU.TO.
My buy stop order for 500 shares of SD was triggered this morning at $4.20 and then SD has collapsed. I am glad that my position size was still very small...
ReplyDeleteDon't know about sharkie but I've been getting speared lately, or you might say skewered, on my longs.
ReplyDeleteOh well, good thing I've held back on the urge to add, looking forward to gaining some experience selling.
Just sold 10 October $4 puts on SD for $0.38 each. This should keep me away from SD until it drops below $3.60, since now I can pretend that I have already purchased 1000 shares at $3.62, and any price above it will make me feel like SD is in a "bounce mode" since my latest purchase. :)
ReplyDeleteLooks like they're trying to close it above 1,050 again. if they do and tomorrow is up then i think the bulls will get a little momentum.
ReplyDeleteI bought a few October $21 Calls on EBAY at $2.37 average.
ReplyDeleteBGU - added here...BGZ top-ticked @ 16.71 on Tues & 16.73 today...
ReplyDeletesold sso@33.44
ReplyDeletemoving 50% of my long term account into SPY index fund and the mid cap index fund at the close if we close above 1,050.
ReplyDeleteWe're not going down now, so we must be going up... Somehow I doubt longs are accumulating going into tomorrow's GDP report.
ReplyDeleteFed's Hoenig: We're Still in 'Modest' Recovery
ReplyDeleteHe sounds like a lone dissenter now, doesn't he? Well, David Rosenberg mentioned many times that whenever economists agree on something, they are usually wrong. He used this idea in April, when EVERY economist (and his brother) was saying that we are in a sustained recover. Now that the majority of economists is focusing on the economy slowing, slowing, slowing,..., they are beginning to ignore the positive trends. I am not sure what they are, but there must be some. :)
RE: NG. For the first time EVER (out of the few times that I carefully looked) I see today a strange situation where the near months futures are down today but the January futures are actually up today!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.html
I guess people are beginning to realize that a slower than usual growth in NG storage means that we might have an NG shortage in the winter.
Next Fall, I'll be smart and will open an NG futures account for myself. I will trade ONLY in January futures, so as not to worry about contango.
alright...sold my eBay calls at a small loss. Cancelled my buys on the SPY and MidCap index funds. Close below 1,050 is not good.
ReplyDeleteSounds like another lie. I see no recovery at all. Just things not going off a cliff. Slow motion train wrecks here and there, and occasional companies doing pretty well, but for the most part earnigs rises due to head count reductions and cost cutting, not growth, and "growth" woulf be required for there to be a recovery, IMO, and there is none, except in their imaginations.
ReplyDeleteDavid - Perhaps the positive trend is lack of downward acceleration?
ReplyDeleteGRMN - Partial fill @ $26.75 for a quick flip tomorrow.
ReplyDeletehead fake up, close down
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by davefairtex (2163 comments) on Thu, 08/26/2010 - 16:17 #67903
So yesterday I suggested things would bounce around here head faking up, and down, just so the market can shake off the maximum number of people before it makes its move (whichever way it goes).
So first a head fake up this morning to hose the shorts courtesy of the employment numbers, and then having no bids for the remainder of the day ensured a slow, steady erosion of prices, which for sure shook out some longs.
Is anyone left on board in any direction? Perhaps some folks went short at the close. Could head fake down tomorrow morning and then bounce off 1040 again, or perhaps just a gap up open removing all subtlety. Or maybe tomorrow is the day we move through 1040. If that's the direction, an overnight gap down (say 15 points) would accomplish the job nicely, without encountering all that pesky support.
Exciting times. Probably best to be in cash; unfortunately I'm not.
FD: long
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Re: head fake up, close down newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4496 comments) on Thu, 08/26/2010 - 16:21 #67904 (in reply to #67903)
Still 60% long. If I get stopped out over the next few days, so be it.
arst! damn, I know a bunch of their sr execs and not a single one gave me a heads up....up 30% today.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to stay after these tech deals until I get one right!
Re: head fake up, close down newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4497 comments) on Thu, 08/26/2010 - 16:31 #67905 (in reply to #67904)
ReplyDeleteIt may also seem disingenuous to post these trades after the fact, but they were posted elsewhere in real time:
(a) Closed BAC/WFC @ 12.89/24.06.
(b) Moved an equivalent dollar amount into AMAT/CSCO/INTC @ 10.60/20.87/18.19.
No change in mutual fund holdings.
If the numbers are just bad, I think the market goes up, because its already been sold. But if the numbers are real bad, I think we could bounce and then collapse as the 2nd leg of recession gets priced in. Seems to me we get there sooner than later anyway.
ReplyDeleteLast year, UNG started an amazing rally right after the Labor Day weekend. I am sure the timing this year will be different, but we can't go down at this rate for much longer, right?
ReplyDeleteClosed HND.to Natural gas bear from Aug 5th for a 38% gain. Got a bearish signal today. Now I will look at buying HNU.to.
ReplyDeleteECU made a double bottom at $0.56 over the past month, and now it might be in for a real rally. Too bad their CFO is still traveling and I couldn't resolve one issue that is still bothering me about ECU (he will be back next week and I'll be calling him every day until I get a hold of him). If I would have resolved it last week, I would have added a lot more ECU at $0.56. As it is, I'll have to be content with with the 10000 shares I added at $0.60 and then 10000 more at $0.56 a month ago. If ECU keeps running, then the gain on the 70000 shares I own now should trump all the "noise" in my portfolio due to UNG, SD and other crap falling apart. :)
ReplyDeleteHND.TO: that was an amazing trade, CI! Congratulations! Over that time period, I lost about as much on my HNU.TO position. :)
ReplyDelete"if the numbers are real bad, I think we could bounce and then collapse as the 2nd leg of recession gets priced in. Seems to me we get there sooner than later anyway. "
ReplyDeleteYes, down we go as long as the lack of focus on jobs exists.
"if the numbers are real bad, I think we could bounce and then collapse as the 2nd leg of recession gets priced in. Seems to me we get there sooner than later anyway. "
ReplyDeleteYes, down we go as long as the lack of focus on jobs exists.
Okay, I just heard Bernanke's going to be in the news tomorrow, something I wasn't aware of until just now.
ReplyDeleteBasically, the feeling expressed was the market is anticipating some kind of magic bullet that isn't likely to exist, and so be prepared for disappointment.
CHN - "The China Fund" - Has anybody been following this one? Wow, they really picked some winners... The manager says the China slowdown has met government expectations and isn't likely to develop the negative effects so many are anticipating.
ReplyDeletePerhaps an upside to communism involves having monopolistic control? On the surface, it sounds like a good name for a board game.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf
ReplyDeleteThis chart is a buy. And it was a good indicator of rallies/sell offs for the past year. I'm just saying...
TOF, that chart shows that Fed is on hold and no new liquidity has been added lately that can stimulate equities...
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete