Sunday, August 29, 2010

8/29/10 All Along The Watchtower/ The Last Day Trade



To everything there is a season. The season of the day trade has ended, at least for me. In my opinion, the odds now favor more traditional trading strategies. I've always liked Bill's AZ/DZ concept, and my plan right now is to hold everything I've accumulated in the AZ until they hit their respective distribution zones.

There probably is no 'one strategy for all seasons-' not day trading, and certainly not buy-and-hold.

The onset of seasonal change can be subtle. Other times (since I'm listening to Dylan this weekend), you stand on the watchtower and see 'two riders approaching [while] the wind begins to howl.'

62 comments:

  1. Takes a lot of guts to hold if things start going down farther.

    IMO, the day trade and hold gold are the only trades left. Anything else ends up a bet on whether Ben prints, how much he prints, and where it runs to.

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  2. cb- I'm probably early on calling a change in seasons, but that's what I see.

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  3. So, then you are saying that either the tax loss selling has either already occurred, or won't be significant this year?

    Not saying I know anything at all, but I don't have your confidence that the bottom is in.

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  4. cb- Nor am I saying I know anything at all. (My take is not derived from any opinion about the impact of tax loss selling, the outlook for the economy or employment, or any other 'logical'metric). My 'confidence' in any stance I take lies in past experience with my takes. Or maybe it lies in the ability to get myself out of trouble ;)

    I stand by my take for now.

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  5. Nikkei up 225 points? That exceeds even my inflated expectations.

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  6. OK, it looks like another continuation of the bounce off 1040 on Monday, barring Iran attacking Israel or another blow-out preventer failure or whatever. My black box service does indicate the potential for a counter trend move up in many stocks and ETF's now. Lots of bottom spotters and counter trend buy signals. On the other hand......SPX is still a bear 5 which translates to the second stage of a long term bear market. Bear 10 is highest. Travel at your own risk appetite.

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  7. GS - Has anyone figured out why this one did so badly during Friday's enthusiasm? This has one of my eyebrows raised...

    Maybe I already asked this question, I can't recall...

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  8. Wow, all of Asia is in hyper-party mode so far...

    Don'tcha just love the whipsaw?

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  9. "Posco Buys Daewoo International Stake for $2.8 Billion

    Posco, the third-biggest steelmaker, agreed to buy control of Daewoo International Corp. for 3.37 trillion won ($2.8 billion) to expand its sales network and gain raw materials as prices climb.

    Posco will acquire 68.15 percent of the steel and crude oil trader, the Pohang-based steelmaker said in a regulatory filing today. The purchase price of 49,101.5 won a share is 53 percent higher than Daewoo International’s close on Aug. 27, based on figures derived from the statement. "

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-30/posco-buys-daewoo-international-stake-for-2-8-billion-to-expand-resources.html

    Posco (PKX) is also a partial owner of GMO's Mt Hope mine.

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  10. Someone must've murdered Sharkie?

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  11. cp,

    i hope not!!@!

    Historically, his absence would mean he Got Lucky.

    Hope our Pal is back soon

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  12. Chickenpookie said...
    Someone must've murdered Sharkie?

    Nah, he's just sulking. waiting for 'please come, come,come.'
    The last time he got such a tearrible face down, was from a snow plow guy, playing with shark's head enjoying arguing about price and then not doing the job. Pity poor shark, Saints abound here; we all hope some day he will find being a Mench is the better way!

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  13. As I posted yesterday, I think there is a very good chance that UNG makes an oversold bounce this week, and that we may in fact have seen the bottom for this Fall. However, in case we get just a quick oversold bounce and then UNG continues lower, I have just lowered my sell limit order to $4.50 for 500 shares of HNUZF from the initial sell limit at $4.70. HNUZF closed at $3.68 on Friday, so even getting to 4.50 would require it to make a 22% move.

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  14. INTC paid 1.4 bb for some div of infineon. not sure if that's good or bad.

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  15. Landry-

    Random Thoughts:

    The market had a solid up day after an earlier slide. This action forms an outside day up and it suggests that it is bouncing from oversold.

    Let's not start kissing each other just yet. So far, again, it only appears to be bouncing from oversold. More importantly, the big blue arrow continues to point sideways.

    I'm still seeing a few issues that still appear to breaking down from high levels ---i.e. forming First Thrusts ( email me if you need the pattern).

    So, once again, you might look to nibble here but only on entries.
    For the most part though, you probably want to focus mostly sitting on your hands while the market remains stuck in a range.

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  16. Morning...Keep an even keel for me. This nightmare should be over by the close!!!

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  17. For UNG, EIA puts this report out today. One of my emails says it comes out around noonish so I guess its not as firm on the reporting like the Thursday storage report. Below info copied from www.eia.gov under the natural gas section. So today's report will focus on June 2010. port2013

    Natural Gas Monthly
    July 2010 Natural Gas Monthly With Data for May 2010
    Release Date: July 29, 2010
    Next Release Date: August 30, 2010

    Natural and supplemental gas production, supply, consumption, disposition, storage, imports, exports, and prices in the United States.

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  18. Pretty nice move for AAPL.

    CP- GS. No clue, but it did stick out like a sore thumb.

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  19. bailed too soon, 36.25 was my target but it stalled out on the charts, so I sold, then it pops...will look to get back in. fin ser looks to be very weak today.

    nice call on UNG David!

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  20. left more than lunch money on the table. been using the 5min chart for exits, certainly needs work.

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  21. REE - They came, they saw... Has doubled recently. Hmmm...

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  22. UNG - Looks like David's rally has begun on schedule?

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  23. CADC - Finally volume has picked up.

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  24. Bought a few Oct $106 Calls on SPY at $3.60. Sold my few INTC $16 Calls at a small loss that I bought on Friday. Bought some more REDF at $1.93.

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  25. wow, that was a massive vol spike, 17.5k shares, for CADC....I'm still scared about getting out of that one CP.

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  26. check out DGIT for an ouch of the day!

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  27. DGIT - Ouch, Damn!

    REDF is tempting.

    Intel shopping spree continues, I find it encouraging but market says no?

    I'm plenty long here anyway.

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  28. i highly doubt this selloff sticks. i still thinking we're headed much higher soon.

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  29. Today's move up in UNG seems to be too small to start a real rally. I was expecting a move up of 10%, given the hugely oversold condition of UNG. And then another 6% the next day, so as to really leave behind everybody and move up with the fewest number of participants.

    I actually don't want THE bottom in UNG to happen just yet -- I haven't finished up loading on HNU.TO and haven't even started buying UNG call options! I don't want it to give up without putting up a good fight! :)

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  30. On Friday, I invoked the rule of "not letting a profit turn into a loss" and placed sell stop limits on INTC and PST at the price at which I entered them. I got stopped out of both today.

    In case TOF is right and this is just a shakeout before the real move higher, I placed a buy stop limit order on INTC at $18.20/$18.21 (same price where I got stopped out today) and PST at $18.45/$18.50 (just above today's morning high, so as to minimize the chance of being faked out again).

    Alexander Elder wrote in his classic book that instead of opening positions and hoping for the best, professionals (supposedly) don't mind being stopped out several times before they actually nail the move they are waiting for. I think there is some merit to this idea...

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  31. Just saw the following info on UNG at Yahoo news:

    Put Sellers See Bottom in UNG

    U.S. Natural Gas Fund traded heavily on Friday, with investors selling-to-open 6 strike puts. The October 6 contract was the most active. More than 75,000 traded and 92% traded on the bid, suggesting sellers were dominating the action. Open interest increased by more than 60,000 to 113,000 contracts, and is now the largest position in the gas fund.

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  32. thanks mr obama, that was pathetic, guess he's short today. not sure he has any idea what the hell he's talking about. looked like a total joke when the prompter froze

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  33. I think we're going to need a fundamental catalyst, such as employment improvement.

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  34. cp - was thinking a 'Martian invasion' might help focus attention...

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  35. RE: Obama - I don't know why there is such an emphasis on what he is saying in these little press conferences. Do people really expect him to solve the world's problems in a random afternoon speech?

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  36. The concept I can't comprehend involves continuing to pay the unemployed to remain unemployed. I'd prefer to see that money used more creatively and if Obama needs help marshaling ideas he's welcome to give me a call anytime. The sooner, the better.

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  37. The concept I'm thinking of involves a bag of carrots and a ball of string.

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  38. no TOF, but if he doesn't have anything to say then I suggest he doesn't say anything at all....just common sense

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  39. 4 downgrades on INTC today. maybe that will make for a bottom within the next 3 days

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  40. i guess he's screwed either way...people put pressure on him to talk and address things pretty much on a daily basis...there's not a whole helluva lot that changes on a daily basis though.

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  41. Finally!!!

    AONE- Yep, I was early as usual, 7.09, but I like it here.

    Came the same be said for DELL?

    I'm actually holding up very well on the back of my energy play....

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  42. BAC trading below tangible book according too X+3B. No position yet for him other than some preferred.

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  43. AONE - Nice RSI14 roll off of 30lvl.

    WNR?? - Have a small amount

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  44. Take a look at FTWR. If filled a gap to the penny a few days ago.

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  45. Yeah, wasn't there a bunch of news about those schools?

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  46. Now we can't even reach 1070 any more, I guess the trend still remains down.

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  47. PAL - I'm going to try getting out at $3.20, this market is still headed down on a daily basis and I'm even looking for the exits now...

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  48. yeesh...what an ugly day. not good for us bulls. especially with futures pointing up big last night. since then the market was down 2%.

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  49. RAS gap fill will be 1.29, Feb. low was 1.00.

    I seem to be in an interesting pattern. Up 3K down 1.5K etc....Still trending correctly, but like TOF said above....UGLY.

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  50. Taking a look at 4 years on RAS, I'll take a shot if it reaches 1.00.

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  51. Same 4 year look at BAC...I suppose an argument could be made for 11.30ish.

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  52. Posted on SOH...Funny.

    http://screencast.com/t/ODY0NmQ0O

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  53. Bought INTC sub $18 in pm. LOL, wish me luck, I'll need it. Actually, I like the Infineon deal. Not a big position by my standards, but I think it will work by January end for $20+ if the world doesn't collapse.

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  54. Nobody can claim the saints came marching in on that close!

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  55. TLT - That sure was an ominous looking red candlestick last Friday, the longest one on my 1 year chart.

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  56. Cheapy,

    I bought INTC in late SEP 08 @ 18.74 thinking the jewel would not go much lower. Sold @ 16.28 May 09. Sale was premature but I now think it will go lower along with the bulk of stocks. The entire complex is bearish now even though a rebound may happen tomorrow. Just my 2 cents.

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