Had I traded the ultras today, I would undoubtedly have lost money. My best move recently may have been to give up the ultras. Once the decision was made to trade longer term, the 2x/3x were no longer candidates for the portfolio. Holding mutual funds/blue chips is an entirely different scenario.
TLT - That sure was an ominous looking red candlestick last Friday, the longest one on my 1 year chart.
2nd - I know you like Hulbert:http://www.marketwatch.com/story/contrarian-take-on-dow-below-10k-2010-08-27?reflink=MW_news_stmp
tof- Thanks for the link. Yeah, I sense a certain amount of pain in the bull camp. (Imagine how you and I would be feeling right now had we been holding positions from the recent high of 10,700.) What would it take to cause a panic low? I'm not sure- but right now I remain confident that my buy points will ultimately prove to be quite attractive.fwiw, the thought crossed my mind this morning that I would like to see a sell-off, and was half expecting one to materialize that would 'challenge' my convictions about a bottom. It also occurred to me that only a sell-off that erased Friday's gains would cause me to waver. So that's exactly what we got.
The nice thing about being long, of course, is that most investors are long. So we are at least avoiding the 'insult' (on top of injury) of taking a hit while the rest of the world is seeing a gain.
Re: Water draining from a bathtub/ Doing Time newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4508 comments) on Mon, 08/30/2010 - 19:50 #68146 (in reply to #68143)George- Holding positions beyond an intraday time frame (after months of day trading) can seem like doing time. I moved 50% of the portfolio into FSRBX/FSELX/FSENX (choices in the retirement account at work limited to funds, and I'm actually fortunate to have a fairly wide selection) at Thursday's close for (at least) a medium term trade- today's sell-off means Friday's gains were given back and then some. Also now underwater on assorted positions in the financial/technology/energy sectors, which total another 10% of the portfolio- AA/AMAT/BAC/CSCO/INTC/WFC/XOM. As Vad points out, oversold can become more oversold.Trading unfolds one day at a time. Tomorrow I may decide to take action, or I may elect to hold. Of course, I try to keep emotions out of the decision-making.
INTC not down much considering it had 4 downgrades today. Odd that the price tagets on the downgrades were mid $20's too.So I bought $50k worth just for grins. Maybe the world ends, maybe it doesn't, but there will be computers being built for as long as I live, me thinks...
2nd - The yields on a lot of things out there are moving into the attractive territory. Heck even the SPY index fund has a yield of about 1.91%, which is almost as good as the 10 year treasury yield. I'm sick of timing crap and have come to the conclusion that this whole technical trading thing won't last over the long term. People are putting too much emphasis on this, in my mind, and not enough on figuring out what a company is really worth. So in my mind it's time to start thinking long term. It's a tough thing to do, changing your mentality.
Water draining from a bathtub / Doing TimeSubmitted by nebish (50 comments) on Mon, 08/30/2010 - 19:51 #68147 This begs the question: Where is the liquidity draining to? Bonds? Cash? Foreign markets (who's currencies stink to high heaven, too)? I think not. I think the market is bottoming and 1040 will hold like a rock. I'm not basing this on any charts. I'm basing this purerly on valuations, which are RIDICULOUS. If corporate america is buying in August (of all times!!), then what is everyone waiting for. We have seen a decided spike in merger activity and it all looks pretty darn opportunistic to me. Sometimes the shortest distace between two points is really a straight line, fellas. I couldn't be more bullish. GL to all.reply Contact the author Bookmark this Ignore thread Ignore user Re: Water draining from a bathtub / Doing Time newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4509 comments) on Mon, 08/30/2010 - 20:01 #68148 (in reply to #68147)nebish- One thing I've noticed about this board has been the transition to wider divergences in opinion, which can only add to the value of the discourse.I have a certain amount of faith in relative strength measures, which derives from my faith in human nature. So I'm fairly confident that my buypoints (and yours, if you've acted on your sentiments) will ultimate prove to be quite attractive. It sounds kind of hollow to make statements like that at times like these- but that's just the way it is.
tof- My sentiments exactly. I noted recently that with all the day trading this year, my total portfolio was DOWN -0.7%! If we want to see the kind of 3-digit returns the market is capable of, we have to be holding during the gap-ups that account for most of the market's returns. So in a way, I'm turning to buy-and-hold- the caveat being that I plan to sell when positions hit the DZ.
Why do I always post on the old after a new post is announced? A slow typist I reckon. Anyway here is my take on INTC: Cheapy,I bought INTC in late SEP 08 @ 18.74 thinking the jewel would not go much lower. Sold @ 16.28 May 09. Sale was premature but I now think it will go lower along with the bulk of stocks. The entire complex is bearish now even though a rebound may happen tomorrow. Just my 2 cents.
Illini,I think the overall bearishness, the depth of INTC crash so far, and the 4 downgrades show really have caused a bad day today for INTC, yet it held the low of 17.81. All that bad news and the bears couldn't get a panic going. Sure, It could drop another buck in a big deleveraging panic, but with EVERYONE already having predicted it a week ago, why hasn't it occurred? Watch the Bush tax cuts get extended out of fear of not doing so. The question is when? Before the election for sure.Who knows, you might be right... But with everyone as bearish as they were a year ago March, I'm not dumping my JPM, BAC and WFC at the lows this time. IMO, INTC is a keeper, just need to turn the screen off if there is a panic.
Re: Water draining from a bathtub newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4510 comments) on Mon, 08/30/2010 - 20:55 #68152 (in reply to #68143)What about the opposite scenario- bears intent on covering when the tub empties find themselves splashing over each other when central banks turn on the spigots?It's just not easy making money in the markets. Rewards are generally commensurate with risk.
BAC - Money flow has been steadily moving up since August 20th.
CP- No doubt. Here's how I look at it. Insiders (as in smart money) will always accumulate near the lows- they have the confidence that comes from 'knowing' stock prices will eventually swing the other way. And at the highs, they will always sell, 'knowing' stock prices will move down along with their high-volume sales.
Figured I'd check in to see what the pollyannas (i.e., us?) are saying about the market right now so I went to CNBC.com and watched Cramer's intro. The dude was actually making some sense.
Re: Water draining from a bathtubSubmitted by George (246 comments) on Mon, 08/30/2010 - 21:17 #68153 (in reply to #68152)2nd_ave,per Worden volume on ETF's, I count 35 that trade huge volume from SPY all the way down to GDX per their 90 day sort volume. Unlike years ago, there is no end to choices that have liquidity for even large traders whether it be stocks or etfs etc. What about INTC it traded over 7 million shares today?reply Contact the author Bookmark this Ignore thread Ignore user Re: Water draining from a bathtub newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4511 comments) on Mon, 08/30/2010 - 21:35 #68154 (in reply to #68153)George-(a) The volume March 9, 2009 wasn't much higher. The question is who's buying, and who's selling? (b) Had a trader sold INTC at 15 in October 2008, he would undoubtedly have felt pretty good the first week of March 2009. Hopefully, he would then have bought. What are the odds he would have bought at the absolute low? If not, where exactly during the spike from 12 to 15 would he have reopened a position? Or might he have waited for the spike from 16 to 19 in July 2009? (c) What about the trader who bought INTC at 15 in October 2008, and sold at 20 a year later- or at 24 a year and a half later?(d) At some point, one has to make a decision. I don't think it's ever an easy decision.
Re: Water draining from a bathtubSubmitted by George (246 comments) on Mon, 08/30/2010 - 21:35 #68155 (in reply to #68154)2nd_ave,Relative to (c), I made mine some time ago and even last Friday I was okay with it.I think George was referring to (d), which was (c) before I edited my post to add an additional point.
Re: Water draining from a bathtubSubmitted by George (247 comments) on Mon, 08/30/2010 - 21:41 #68155 (in reply to #68154)2nd_ave,Relative to (c), I made mine some time ago and even last Friday I was okay with it. This sell-off is going to get cayote ugly! It might be best to gnaw off both arms cause you know she'll be looking for a one arm guy.reply Contact the author Bookmark this Ignore thread Ignore user Re: Water draining from a bathtubSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4513 comments) on Mon, 08/30/2010 - 21:42 #68156 (in reply to #68155)My apologies for inserting another point, which bumped the original (c) entry to (d). That is, if I read you correctly.reply Bookmark this Ignore thread Re: Water draining from a bathtub newSubmitted by George (247 comments) on Mon, 08/30/2010 - 21:43 #68157 (in reply to #68156)yes it is now (d) and I didn't spell coyote correctly but couldn't edit it.reply Contact the author Bookmark this Ignore thread Ignore user Re: Water draining from a bathtub newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4513 comments) on Mon, 08/30/2010 - 21:44 #68158 (in reply to #68155)When it comes to 'coyotes,' the uglier the better. I love sell-offs- without them, we're all just part of the crowd.
Re: Water draining from a bathtubSubmitted by George (248 comments) on Mon, 08/30/2010 - 21:50 #68159 (in reply to #68158)get ready 2nd_ave cause it's coming to get you http://tiny.cc/6u34rreply Contact the author Bookmark this Ignore thread Ignore user Re: Water draining from a bathtubSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4514 comments) on Mon, 08/30/2010 - 21:51 #68160 (in reply to #68158)I'm just waiting for Vad to weigh in on INTC with 'But she was so much uglier then, she's prettier than that now.' Or 'beautifuler than that now.' ')
I'm with you on being tired of trading (or at least trying to trade) this market. I'd rather be the guy who bought INTC early at 15 (yet in some kind of AZ), watched it tank to 12, but patiently waited for the panic to subside, and eventually sold at 24 (or in some kind of DZ). I just can't make that kind of money trading intraday.
MMM - Buys COGT $943M 29x shares traded.
Took a quick look at buying/selling on weakness/strength from the WSJ on socks we follow..Buying- Top 3...XOM/BAC/INTCOthers-BHI/SLB.Selling- DELL/WFC.I'm not quite as bullish as the average here. Traders will have to chase me in SWN/PXP/HEK/REDF.Running second on HUN/INTC/JPM/GMO/AONE/XCO...but not by much.Flat on DELL.
a gap down below 1,040 would trap a lot of longs...mr market would get a lot of people out of this market.
Well, I vote crash, at this point. There is nothing that will salvage this mess.
cb- I don't think we crash. I think we rally.
Good luck with that. I see no hope whatsoever.
sold my DGP for $1800 profit. makes the day better, but I have no clue why it was up