Thursday, September 30, 2010

10/1/10 Let It Snow

Oh the Main Street weather is frightful,
But Wall Street’s so delightful,
And since September has closed,
Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow!

It doesn't show signs of stopping,
But we've got TZA popping,
The lights are turned way down low,
Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow!

The rally is slowly dying,
Our analysts still ‘Good Buy’ing,’
But now that we’re good to go,
Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow!

No positions in the ultrashorts right now- at some point, however, the market will be screaming 'Bye,' and then they'll be screaming buys.

94 comments:

  1. On second thought, maybe not. Catch you guys tomorrow.

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  2. CP- I paged her earlier. Time to light up the Bat signal??

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  3. Right now, I feel like the grape.

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  4. 2nd...your lyrical genius shines once again.

    BTW, my sub algo threw out another Top Spotter today. There have been 2 or 3 lately in close proximity that have been taken out which is unusual. Something is going on. Will this one stick? The market is overbought by many indications.

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  5. Illini- What was it saying the same time last year? Did you see the news out of Cal athletics? I'm still in shock. It's a big deal here. A lot of angry "Old Blues".

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  6. A buddy of mine has been talking about HERO and he references this article

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-15/u-s-interior-department-to-require-old-wells-to-be-plugged.html?cmpid=yhoo

    The article also mentions DVR (Cal Dive International), TTI (TETRA Technologies Inc), GLBL (Global Industries Ltd), and SPN (Superior Energy Services Inc).

    You guys may have been talking about these already and I just never caught on but it sounds interesting to me. Any thoughts?

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  7. I just checked my long term fidelity account and I see where I boought HERO at $2.71. I forgot I had put that order in before the market opened this morn.

    Fidelity has an analyst section where they show the accuracy ranking of the analyst and the analyst recomendation for a particular stock. I've never used it but of the 4 stocks mentioned above, Raymond James has a "StarMine Accuracy Score" of 90 and they upgraded HERO to OUTPERFORM on 6/2/10 and upgraded TTI to a STRONG BUY on 3/1/10.

    Raymond James doesn't have a ranking for the other two stocks.

    TTI, was $10.08 on the day before 3/1/10 and is now $10.20 with lots of volatility in between.

    HERO, was $2.56 before the upgrade and is now $2.65 but it looks like its spent most of that time in the $2.00-$2.50 range.

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  8. hi chickie

    i am here. hoping for a ride up on redf manana. loaded up

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  9. hey there cb,,,, the beauty of this blog is its moderate load of time frame con- fused logical people sitting around the camp fire talking orange, grape &apple comparisons. i have all kinds of visual and med issues aside from a slowed down intellect. I can still understand simple things such as do home plumbing repair. stk
    mkt participation is not an over and done proposition.
    in the past it was almost impossible for me to import a practical allover emotional semi pro trader attitudinal gut.
    FD i haven't made more than 6 trades in the past 6 months, ports up a wee bit. but my comfort level with stk mkt betting has dramatically changed in 2 ways. TT has thrown enough terms and usage to move me into looking every new idea up in regard to how term used @ TT. i can now almost internally get along with decision& performance
    bob, if you look at sept 30 tza candle chart and overlay the 10 & 20 edma; the spread,cross over and candle volume give damm good current and timely points of enter & egress. hopefully this signal generator could stretch out some of your rigid minds sets. how ever i thank you for the persistant complaint because its a common thread which i can use later when i finally get my combined physical and mental agility yoked into a trustworthy follow through.
    with respect for you and all TT blogers,
    e5

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  10. SD looks overbought in the short term, and so I think selling more of my shares is warranted now. Furthermore, I think $6 is a magnet for SD, but it is a strong resistance level and once it gets there, I am not sure if it will have more upside left. So I just placed a sell limit order at $5.90 for 2/3 of my position (500 shares).

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  11. Re: Let It Snow/ The TZA Omelet newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4669 comments) on Fri, 10/01/2010 - 06:20 #70508 (in reply to #70491)
    "But TZA??? Do you have a death wish? Maybe holding it for 30 minutes to an hour. These 3X abominations..."

    Mac- 'Abominations' is actually a pretty accurate term for the leveraged ETFs. As you point out, the appropriate holding period is measured in minutes or hours. A trade in TZA is like making an omelet- heat the frying pan to an extreme temperature, cook the omelet within 30 seconds, finish the omelet with 2-3 minutes. Any longer, and the experience is all downhill.

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  12. Re: futures 5am - short the gap up? newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4670 comments) on Fri, 10/01/2010 - 06:39 #70509 (in reply to #70507)
    Les- I don't think the rate of price gains we had in September is sustainable, and believe a significant pullback is needed to get us to 1220, but I have to defer to market action, which remains remarkably bullish.

    The problem with shorting this morning's gap up is that everyone is thinking the same thing (I certainly am)- so the contrarian trade would be to squeeze the shorts. But who wants to be buying at the top? That's exactly why trading is never easy.

    My only position right now is WFC- I wasn't able to find a decent exit price for the second allotment of shares.

    I don't really have the guts to buy tops, but if I had to make a trade, my inclination would be wait for signs of panic on the part of shorts, then 'pedal to the metal' on longs for an intraday ride.

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  13. Mark- I guess I never addressed the 'spam folder' issue:

    When you first log on, you should see this message displayed near the top:

    "We have enabled automatic spam detection for comments. You should occasionally check the comments in your spam inbox. Learn more about Blogger's spam detection or report issues."

    Click on the link to learn more.

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  14. Landry-
    Random Thoughts:

    The market tried to break out but came right back in.

    This action keeps it in a shorter-term trading range.

    The good news is that most sectors held up fairly well and many remain in uptrends.

    As I told my peeps in the service, I still think we're in "get ready to get ready" mode.

    Again and ideally, I'd like to see some follow through in the overall market.

    Futures are strong pre-market.

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  15. for you day traders out there, which is probably all of us, check out CLF, I own it as a hold (dumbd idea), but it is a wonderful trading vehicle...look at a one month chart, I end up riding 1-2 waves per day now.

    GL....still think we just revolve around 1145 on the ES

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  16. Mark - i think it's the same old bs, manipulation by HFT, but it could be good news, income/spending, and dudley on QE 1.5...but who knows!

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  17. JB- Well, I'm not really inclined to go short, so I guess I'll just watch what I always do and see if I can find a swing entry.

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  18. Closing WFC newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4672 comments) on Fri, 10/01/2010 - 09:39 #70524
    At 25.44, and back to 100% cash.

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  19. I hear you bro, that said I just shorted CLF @65.20

    I know it's off limits but did you see SGEN made a new 52 week high this a.m...CRAP!

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  20. AAPL/NFLX/BIDU/AMZN not playing along.

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  21. check out this China wind ipo symbol MY

    They rang the opening bell

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  22. JB- 65.31?......Yeah, I have about 100 on my watch list and it's there front and center.

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  23. picking up HPQ here at 41.03

    MY would have been a good one to be in pre-IPO

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  24. If CLF holds true to form, at least the past months form, it will make a run down to S1 some time today

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  25. Market valuations still seem quite reasonable to me. Sorry, I know I've been saying this for a month, but until we get to 1,225 or so, I think we're undervalued.

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  26. TOF- Don't be sorry, I'ts been the right call.

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  27. I'm going to see if I can play UNG off the ISM #.

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  28. Thanks Mark.

    This Chinese ipo symbol MY is interesting.

    It hasn't gone up yet but it's interesting. It has gone down:)

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  29. Interesting...crude moved on the number but natty didn't budge.

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  30. ISM just tanked /ES, HOD is probably in and now we will just spin around in a tight range.

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  31. It's about time for a selloff isn't it?:)

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  32. Well those are 3 ugly bars for SPY.

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  33. Did you watch the PAL spike up to 4.39?
    It was like one set of computers gaming another set of computers....running up the bids, I guess, until a bunch of buy stop orders were auto hit. A very profitable manipulation.

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  34. They can't bring BYD down.

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  35. GRS back after buyout of CGC

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  36. HPQ - Two thumbs up from my perspective, see if you can catch the knee-jerk low (today/tomorrow?).

    I'm loaded up on my picks. No more buying for me, just riding the wave.

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  37. They'll have to stop whipping this puppy around if they want retail investors to return.

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  38. Rotation into financials is underway:

    GS +1.75%
    C +2.30%
    JPM +1.29%
    STT +0.90%

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  39. After my yesterday's observation about the market selling off on good news, I think it is pretty clear that S&P will rise above 1200 by the end of 2010. Why? Well, yesterday the market demonstrated clearly that it wants QE2, and since we know that the next ISM report will be significantly weaker than the last one, and the one after the next will be even weaker, which should be sufficient for Bernanke to engage into QE2, which should then propel the markets significantly higher for a little while, until people realize that QE2 is not really helping the economy, at which point the rally will fail and all world will go to pieces, since people will realize that there is NO ONE who can help, not even the Fed.

    So while it would make sense for the market to sell off in the next month so as to make it easier for Bernanke to do QE2, the market will then rally after it gets QE2.

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  40. I see that REDF dropped below the level where I shorted it yesterday ($5.44), and since this was a highly speculative trade to start with, I have just lowered my buy to cover stop limit to $5.44/$5.50, so as not to let a profit turn into a loss.

    Also, I see that the lowest price for ESLR today was above $0.72, and so I moved up my sell stop on ESLR to $0.72 (for the 5000 shares purchased at $0.66)

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  41. "until people realize that QE2 is not really helping the economy, at which point the rally will fail and all world will go to pieces, since people will realize that there is NO ONE who can help, not even the Fed."

    Wow David. Are you one of those people that's buying guns and canned goods and stashing cash in the mattress?

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  42. Not yet, TOF. :) Somehow I don't doubt MY survivability, but survivability of financial markets is a different matter.

    Do you really think QE2 will turn out any differently than QE1 (or the endless QEs in Japan) -- just a temporary adrenaline injection without any long-term impact? How do you think the market reacts once it realizes that QE2 is not helping?

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  43. SD just hit my sell limit at $5.90 for 500 shares. I am sure it will pull back soon to around $5, in which case I'll sell $5 puts and will reload these shares at $4.50 or so.

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  44. Taking bets on the close newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4673 comments) on Fri, 10/01/2010 - 14:09 #70563
    Purely for entertainment, as I have no plans to put real money on this. From a psychological standpoint, I think the bears almost have to lose going into the close. I say we close at the highs of the day.

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  45. David - I'll offer up one of James K's articles on the perceived importance (or should I say overimportance if that's a word?). I have always thought that the business cycle is far more important than the Fed or Govt intervention. Who's to say that things wouldn't have naturally rebounded without the fed?

    http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/fed-federal-reserve-kocherlakota-quantitative-easing/9/30/2010/id/30314

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  46. 2nd_ave -- remember when SD was at $4.60 and I said I was planning to make a lot of money on it? Well, I did buy it at $4.60, $4.20 and $4 after that (and then sold each bunch at $0.5 higher), but unfortunately my purchase sizes were very small. But my idea was correct! :)

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  47. Any idea what got the finanacials running?

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  48. Mark - some comments that since Sept was strong, they expected the trading desks @ GS, etc to do well into earnings reporting is what I heard.

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  49. Kyle- Hmmmm...one quarter is enough?

    David- Congrats on SD. I was too chicken to pull the trigger. No offense CP :)

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  50. The $5.20 support level that was established [for REDF] on Monday (based on the 5-day intraday chart) just got broken -- that's not a good sign... Looking at the chart of daily prices, the next stop is $4.50.

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  51. Just bought 500 more shares of HNUZF at $3.50 -- it is in a value region now, but it is hard to say how much further it can fall before reversing and inevitably moving above $4. So I'll keep buying it in small amounts...

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  52. David- Isn't HIUNZF weighted on the industry and not the spot price? If so, I'm surprised it's down today. Natty players doing ok today.

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  53. Mark: HNUZF is a 2X ultralong on NG futures, just like UNG. The fact that NG players are doing fine today suggests that the market expects a decent performance in NG futures over the medium term, and so this short-term drop in NG futures should be bought (by us).

    I placed a sell limit order at $4 for the 500 shares of HNUZF I have just purchased at $3.50.

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  54. Thanks David....

    God INTC is a Fing dog. It gets really good comments out of UBS and it pops 1.5% only to sell off 2/3rds of it.

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  55. Now if we could only get semiconductors (SMH) to participate.

    There always has to be at least one laggard...

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  56. is it too much to ask for BYD to get bought out after the close today to put an exclamation point on the crazy run over the past month?

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  57. David- Yeah, I see SD is finally taking off, so you made the right call. I just don't know that I would have bet the ranch on it (actually, I think you said it was just the entire amount in one account, so if that's the bet you made, then it paid off). I'll buy your next bottle of sake- right after you buy my next drink, bro...

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  58. 2nd_ave -- my November $75 V calls did not hit yet their sell limit at $3.45. When they do hit that limit, your drinks will be covered. :)

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  59. Since I sold some SD today, I now have some more cash for backing up puts, and so I just sold 5 more WATG November $7.50 puts for $0.55. WATG is up today and yesterday's drop now looks like a simple shakeout. However, its puts are still expensive, and I think selling them is an amazingly good deal (WATG is not in a downtrend, and so the chance of it closing below $7 in November is VERY small IMO).

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  60. Speaking of V....Reopened @ 73.25. If this last run is for real, the 100ma should work as support here. I won't let go long if I'm wrong.

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  61. REDF junkies- Is this a buying opportunity?

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  62. Habitual sellers stepping up about now?

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  63. V- Over the last 15 trading days, V has only had 2 red days in a row (twice) and one single red day. I like my odds here.

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  64. tree fell across the street power out most of the day.

    ANO Anooraq in play baby.

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  65. TOF- YES!!!!!

    Can I say GO GIANTS!! :). Might head out to the game tonight.

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  66. Looking at a simple 60 day chart, I'm not buying this move in the financials.

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  67. Although a case can be made it is forming a nice right shoulder here...If one believes in such things.

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  68. REDF...OK, a guess? Might be some support @ 4.10-4.20. Otherwise it's vertical both ways.

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  69. CP- CADC hasn't faired well testing the underside of the 100ma since it broke to the down side in Jan. Give it more more chance?

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  70. imbalances

    BUY....C/BAC/WFC/APA/APC/SWN

    SELL....AA/CHK

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  71. PXP- 2nd rejection to the penny @ the 200 over the last 10 trading days.

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  72. yeah BTIM is thinly traded sucker, but I think it has a long way to run.

    1145, so nothing solved, again.

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  73. e5, Thanks for the suggestion. I added it to my chart and will monitor to see if it gives better clues.

    Yesterday lost me $2715. Most of it was the idiotic overnight TZA trade where I slept in, but the plan was to sell before jobs numbers, and the balance the blindside hit on UNG, offset by a few wins during the day.

    Today netted me $790, with two losing trades for $60 total, and the balance winners.

    I think it says I did a lot better swinging for singles and taking the walks instead of trying to go for home runs.

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  74. The problem with REDF is that after a run from $2 to $6, no one really knows what the right price is for it now, EVEN if the future has turned bright for it recently. Maybe that bright future only justifies a $3 price now?

    So let me ask those people who are not emotionally attached to REDF: at which point during its decline would you definitely step and and buy a decent amount? At $4.50? At $4? At $3?

    That's the point where I'll cover my short on REDF.

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  75. CADC - Probably will move with market aside from potential internal forces such as new contract announcements for example. Roth capital briefly mentioned something about financial audit plans and raised their guidance from $8 to $9, not sure why audit is necessary aside from placating jittery market. My take is it'll receive a healthy bill of approval.

    They also said nothing about where money's coming from on their expansion plans (up to 10 additional portable plants @ $2-$3M/per).

    No debt, loaded pipeline, warrants gone, expanding economy, etc....

    So I guess it really depends on which way general market moves and your particular time horizon.

    CADC currently remains a hold for me here although I don't anticipate any impressive moves until after next earnings announcement, and although the strategy of hanging on hasn't worked exceedingly well for me, I'm going to ride it for the time being and see how that works out.

    I should probably entertain the thought of simply playing short ETF's as a hedge against market deterioration.

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  76. "1145, so nothing solved, again."

    True, we're back to working off an overbought condition.

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  77. David - props to you on that short call. I was worried about you for a little bit there even if there wasn't much at risk.

    As far as a buy in point, I'm probably like everyone else...I have no freaking clue! I was originally thinking it will find some support at the $3.50 level only because that seemed to be an area of resistance but after seeing it go to $6.25 I would have to say it is probably at the $3.90 to low $4's. But I don't know much about it.

    Two trends that I think will be just spectacular long term are touch screens and Chinese auto consumption. I love IMMR and WATG because of those. I'm just hoping BYD can get a buyout or NLS can make a big move up so I can begin moving money into those. Actually, on second thought I just sold my C at $4.1 after hours so I can buy some of those two stocks.

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  78. TOF, I decided to short REDF mostly because I saw that everyone else was expecting it to go still higher and was trying to get on board of that train
    (as opposed to staring in disbelief at that rocket and not being willing to jump in). If REDF drops below $5 on Monday, I'll move my buy to cover stop to $5, so as to ensure some decent profit on that trade.

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  79. David - I suspect it will be hopping around $5 for a good part of the next few days so I'm sure your stop will get hit. If no news comes out then you might be better off just sticking to a cover price no?

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