Sundance makes an important point about vantage points- which perspective we take is entirely up to us. One 'positive' born of adversity/hardship (especially in childhood) is the almost reflexive ability to see 'the other side' (ie, the advantages) of negative situations. In fact, almost all of us have experienced the ability to leverage pain and suffering into accomplishments that would otherwise never have been attempted.
Placing a modest bet on window-dressing (more accurately, a bet on the powerful incentives associated with EOQ). INTC/WFC at 19.24/25.07. It could have been any two stocks or ETFs- I just happened to like the pricing on these two.
Obviously, I want to cover the possibility of a major gap up. No opinion on whether we get one- although it's clear my actions make a statement.
Re: The Fed's second bubble/ The Other Side/ INTC+WFC newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4658 comments) on Wed, 09/29/2010 - 18:37 #70373 (in reply to #70369)
ReplyDeleteSundance makes an important point about vantage points- which perspective we take is entirely up to us. One 'positive' born of adversity/hardship (especially in childhood) is the almost reflexive ability to see 'the other side' (ie, the advantages) of negative situations. In fact, almost all of us have experienced the ability to leverage pain and suffering into accomplishments that would otherwise never have been attempted.
Placing a modest bet on window-dressing (more accurately, a bet on the powerful incentives associated with EOQ). INTC/WFC at 19.24/25.07. It could have been any two stocks or ETFs- I just happened to like the pricing on these two.
Obviously, I want to cover the possibility of a major gap up. No opinion on whether we get one- although it's clear my actions make a statement.
Link to Doug Kass interview on Fast Money...
ReplyDeletehttp://seabreezepartners.net/television_appearances
2nd - my take on the markets is that the upside is still in play, but clearly 1,150 is a cap for now. I suspect we will see a drop tomorrow and possibly another retest of 1,150 at some point over the next week or so, barring any really negative news. If it is not broken again then I think we bulls might have some trouble for the rest of the year. I personally don't view the election period as a positive for the markets. More uncertainty regarding who has the power means more uncertainty for businesses. In reading "Freedom from Fear" they had mid term elections in 1930 that everyone thought would be good for the markets/economy yet turned out to be anything but. Not saying we're even close to that period economically but it's always good to keep in mind what else might happen other than what everyone is gunning for.
ReplyDeletetof- My only play right now is EOQ. Put yourself in a fund manager's shoes- you're 24 hours away from the possibility of a substantial bonus. Don't tell me they're thinking it's just another quarter. They can't believe the DJIA's up 8% fo the month- when the money's this close, they're going to jack their positions. In fact, today's sell-off was probably all about raising the cash to do it.
ReplyDelete24 Hours newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4659 comments) on Wed, 09/29/2010 - 19:42 #70378
ReplyDeletePut yourself in a fund manager's shoes. When EOQ is 2 months away, mentally it's just another quarter. When it's 24 hours away, and your positions have climbed close to double digits over the past three weeks- they're no different from you and me. They're within striking distance of real money, significant amounts of it. Do you think they're going to pretend it doesn't matter? They can't believe the DJIA index is up 8% for the month. When the money's this close, they're going to jack their positions for all they're worth. In fact, today's sell-off was probably all about raising the cash they need to pull it off.
tof- They might blast the cap off 1150 tomorrow.
ReplyDelete2nd_ave -- I would welcome a blast through 1150 tomorrow. I still have November $75 calls on V, which have almost doubled in value already. I don't want to be too greedy, so I set a sell limit order at the point they'll double, at $3.44. If V reaches $75 tomorrow, then this limit should be hit.
ReplyDeleteDavid- It's great to know you'll be buying drinks next time we get together.
ReplyDeleteWell, I lightened up a lot today. Now only holding C/CADC/INTC/BYD. All 1/3 positions. New YTD highs, and as my port was up 1.75% today in a flat market, caution seemed the prudent play.
ReplyDeleteOn a whooping 6,700 shares, FTFL breaks out. TOF, I honestly considered holding this one for a few years and just forgetting about it.
ReplyDeleteImbalances on the buy side at the close....V/BAC/C/WFC/GS/JPM.
ReplyDeleteCP- Yes, there were no sellers.
Blink and you lose. Jefferies raises CPE to hold and it's UP 20% today?
ReplyDelete"Blink and you lose" Yep, on both sides!
ReplyDeleteCP- So true. I was slightly disappointed in the action of CADC today also. Let's let it play out a little. The key will be if the dips are bought, putting a floor under it's price.
ReplyDeleteCADC - I'm convinced this one's going to take off at some point, just don't know when that'll happen.
ReplyDeleteSeems like there was some disappointment on accounts receivables but this was addressed precisely as I had anticipated with an explanation that it's not an unusual situation considering the growth rate and the timing of incoming orders vs wind down of existing orders.
I've noticed this same phenomenon before on other earnings reports.
The new revelation I was not aware of was their plans to purchase up to 10 additional portable mixers at a cost of between $2-3M each, and finally they mentioned the potential for airport and municipal projects being added to the pipeline.
The high speed rail projects are attention getters, but there's so much more potential on the table.
I'll betcha this will be at least a double by or shortly after next earnings as long as I don't lose interest and sell 1st (like I've repeatedly done so many times, typically at a bottom).
This company's got a lot going for it IMO.
Boy I coulda bought quite a few more shares of CADC if I'd just switched over to TNA six weeks ago...
I'VE GOT A DOG NAMED SOLAR....ESLR....
ReplyDeleteBut probably not for long. Having read a little more about the company's situation tonight I will be pretty wary about holding this if it fails to rise fairly expediently.
Looking at a 666 day chart of DB, I'm inclined to build a position here.
ReplyDeleteDB 666 day chart....
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/Y2ViOGQ3MW
On the basis that the market wouldnt like that china law, i did buy some TZA back in aftermarket. Only 3000 shares in case it went sour on me, but it looks like it was a good bet.
ReplyDeletei don't understand why it looks like its trading now on my screen...
Woof, woof! Another magnificent breakout!
ReplyDeleteJB- There's news on CRYP today.
ReplyDeleteR1 and R2 for SPY today. 114.91 and 115.36.
ReplyDeleteRe: The Fed's second bubble/ The Other Side/ INTC+WFC newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4660 comments) on Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:48 #70405
ReplyDeleteClosed the INTC/WFC @ 19.31/25.30 on positive reaction to jobless claims for minor gains. I'll take the gains.
natty storage estimate for today is +67 with the range being +60 to +75
ReplyDeleteport
Thanks Port!
ReplyDeleteSPY bidding at 115, man...
ReplyDeletecb- I'm glad you're only day trading TZA. It's now bidding at a new low of 25.15...
ReplyDeleteDIA briefly hit 109...
ReplyDeleteWell, I happen to think the economic figures remain piss-poor.
ReplyDeleteTZA 25.05- it's over for the bears.
ReplyDeleteThe housing situation is just horrible when you stop to think about it objectively, hopefully we're near a bottom....
ReplyDeleteRare Earth Resources - interesting segment on bloomberg...80% come from region around Baotou, China...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.baotou-rareearth.com/index.html
Slept in by mistake, lost $2100 on TZA
ReplyDeletePM's flying off the scale yet again.
ReplyDeleteWill C fly now? I think it will. We've got us another depressionary bull run!
ReplyDeleteUNG back to it's lows of 6.18 ahead of the report.
ReplyDeleteLandry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
Although the market failed to follow through, the action in many sectors and many individual issues was positive. This action keeps us in "get ready to get ready" mode.
Ideally, I'd like to see some follow through in the overall market.
Again though, I am impressed with the internals on Wednesday.
I'm going to show you what good things I'm seeing by "looking under the hood" later today in the chart show.
As usual though, standards caveats apply: Obviously, if the
market comes right back in, all bets are off.
Futures are firm pre-market.
Best of luck with your trading today!
SPY's first run @ R2 rejected on the penny.
ReplyDeleteVery impressive action here...even as a bull I'm wondering if some of it has to do with end of quarter. I have never known what to think of that. I kind of think it's b.s. but who knows.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, I'm still sitting about 70% long in BYD, NLS, RAS, and C....not yet ready to commit the remaining 30%.
Rotation out of XLE into XLF.
ReplyDeleteTZA was a very bad trade.
ReplyDeletebought UNG but who knows?
ReplyDeleteStops getting destroyed. XLF lead.
ReplyDeletebeen listening in to a trading room, plus the live feed from the pit, their take - lots of room above if ES breaks clear of 1150.
ReplyDeleteI still think we fall back and end the day at good old 1145, expect a 5% gain from there thru EOY.
Re: Chicago PMI/ Shorts forced to cover newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4663 comments) on Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:58 #70415 (in reply to #70414)
ReplyDeleteMax frustration? It would have to be an intraday sell-off to trap new bears/raise more cash, followed by a run-up into the close.
jb - That makes more sense than anything else, which is why it won't happen quite that way... ;)
ReplyDeleteNatty players rolling over.
ReplyDeleteJB- I agree with your take. BUT if the bears don't get a reversal today all bets are off.
tof- There's no BS involved. It's purely based on incentive- and paychecks are as real as it gets.
ReplyDeleteyeah CP, that's the way things tend to go...:), look out 1160!
ReplyDeletewhen sept s&p is positive (since 1927), the ave gain from oct-dec is 5.51%, and that time frame is up 80%+ of the time...Bespoke is a great info consolidator.
ReplyDeleteCADC - Still no action while everything else fly's, getting really board with it.
ReplyDeleteJust a bad day for me. There is no way to make a good day from a botched one.
ReplyDeleteSWN/HEK/PXP now all lower than my sell price yesterday. Wish I held into today though. V stalled again. INTC strong.
ReplyDeleteWill wait for the storage report to play UNG if I'm fast enough.
this is probably fucking crazy but I just bought PAL:)
ReplyDeleteHeaven help me:)
Wonder who bought the new all-time high in PM's today?
ReplyDeleteJB- Are you in Dutch's room? Smart ES traders there.
ReplyDeletecp - when it happens to me i shut off my computer, get up, go walk a few hundred laps around the pool and the come back and start over.....helps me clear my head and kinda gives me a fresh start.
ReplyDeleteDC public school system - Looks like the teachers union is winning their battle with the help of Obama administration, prepare for another 50 yrs of sameness.
ReplyDeleteJB- It's much easier just to have a beer.
ReplyDeleteHey Mark - I do go into Dutch's chat room but lately I've been listening in to John Person's room (run by Butch), there they also pipe in live action from the pit.
ReplyDeleteI like Dutch and some of the folks there plus it's more than just ES (JP's room is primarily ES). Also, he's a great guy to chat with over the phone, tons of neat stories and helpful suggestions
With crude up 2% it's not good to see energy plays rolling over like this.
ReplyDeleteoh bro, don't get me started, would love to do that - you know boo barry runs a dry ship here
ReplyDeleteJB- What's the link to JP's room?
ReplyDeleteyou can get a free pass for a week:
ReplyDeletehttp://nationalfutures.com/
For Dutch's chat room you start at:
http://www.wejusttrade.com/index.php
back to 1145 on ES....!
ReplyDeleteYes it was crazy but I'm still in
ReplyDeleteMCP breaking out
If history holds, there will be a second leg down in UNG. Measured move has me bidding @ 5.96.
ReplyDelete2nd - I hear you about the incentives but in looking at quarter ends how many times do we see a big run up right into the close just because it was doing well up until the close? Are there any stats on this? Of all of the prior quarter ends over the past several years that I can remember, I don't recall it consistently happening this way.
ReplyDeleteJB- Thanks. I've checked into Dutch's room before. He knows me.
ReplyDeleteThe day is hopeless. Shutting down.
ReplyDeleteI'VE GOT A DOG NAMED SOLAR
ReplyDeleteNot anymore. That fucker didn't hunt, couldn't play catch....hell he couldn't even fetch.
kinda looks like a nasty tweezer top in the making on the way OUT OF BUSINESS mwhich is where I now believe eslr is going.
Rare earth hype has increased substantially in the past week, just don't understand the motivation when the developed nations remain dead set on outsourcing manufacturing anyway.
ReplyDeleteYikes....JPM now red? Careful....
ReplyDeleteNG leases - "Use em' or lose em'" was something I read the other day, there's so much gas coming out of the ground storage is busting at the seams?
ReplyDeleteCADC - OMG, now I'm not quite as board as I was a moment ago...
ReplyDeletemight be time to buy redf
ReplyDeleteSilver - Let's see if $21.42 holds, I bet it does. This will be interesting...
ReplyDeleteshark
ReplyDeleteredf
woof
REDF - Looks like a quadruple inverse H&S wheezer reversal!
ReplyDeleteOh wait, it could actually be octagonal....
ReplyDeleteNothing quite like an "unexpected" head fake to clear the old sinuses, beware if Paris Hilton hands you a piece of gum.
ReplyDelete"The Commerce Ministry said a measure approved Wednesday by Congress to allow Washington to penalize governments that manipulate exchange rates violated free-trade rules. It gave no indication whether Beijing might retaliate, though it has imposed antidumping duties in recent months on imports of U.S. chicken, steel and nylon."
ReplyDeleteI was wondering why price of chicken was so weak, and wouldn't have dreamed US steel could be competitive enough to garner import duties within China.
Nylon? It's great stuff when used properly.
yeesh...now that's one ugly reversal.
ReplyDeleteMidday Buying Opportunity? newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4664 comments) on Thu, 09/30/2010 - 11:13 #70424
ReplyDeleteThe sell-off needs to be convincing enough to fool traders. Indexes need to hit the red zone and stay there for an extended period of time- at least an hour or two. JMO.
this day reminds me of 6/21
ReplyDeleteEverything's woof woof today.
ReplyDeleteOut, flat, done, sick of this shit:)
Probably just a lunchtime reversal, I'm still expecting an 1150+ close.
ReplyDeleteBut PM's may have been the damning clue... Something weird is going on today.
ReplyDeletecheapy covered his short this morning, briefly sending S&P over 1150...
ReplyDeleteRe: Midday Buying Opportunity?/ INTC/CSCO newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4665 comments) on Thu, 09/30/2010 - 11:38 #70434 (in reply to #70424)
ReplyDeleteOpening CSCO @ 21.79. Reopening INTC @ 19.12.
If you happen to be wondering whether US government might grow or shrink under control of democrats or republicans, just ask yourself when the last time government actually shrank.
ReplyDeleteLet me provide a head start, which federal district boasts the best unemployment figures? Hint, DC is not a state.
Re: Midday Buying Opportunity?/ Adding WFC newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4666 comments) on Thu, 09/30/2010 - 12:34 #70447 (in reply to #70434)
ReplyDeleteReopening WFC @ 25.14...
Re: Midday Buying Opportunity?/ INTC/CSCO> Closed newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4667 comments) on Thu, 09/30/2010 - 13:15 #70455 (in reply to #70434)
ReplyDeleteINTC closed @ 19.37, CSCO closed @ 21.95. Taking profits when I have them.
This morning, SD hit my sell limit order at $5.66 for the shares I purchased at $4.66. Too bad I purchased only 500 shares at that price... But then, not purchasing too many shares at $4.66 allowed me to buy 500 more shares at $4.20 and then 500 more at $4 and then sell 10 $4 puts when SD was $3.99. I still have those puts outstanding.
ReplyDeleteI just did a suicidal thing -- sold short REDF. I see that it dropped below its previous peak at $5.64 -- maybe it's a sign that the rally has ran out of steam? I placed a sell short limit at $5.44 for 1000 shares and so far only 551 shares got executed. Once all of them get executed, I'll place a buy to cover stop at $6, so my maximum loss on this trade isn't too large. Let's see how it works out...
ReplyDeleteAs for the broad market, looks like my guess was correct -- it cares more about QE2 now than about the economy, since good news of small new jobless claims and a good PMI index got sold.
ReplyDeleteESLR is once again at the top of its multi-month range, at $0.7. So it would seem like shorting it is the right thing to do? If so, then the unexpected action for ESLR would be to break above $0.70, right? In any case, so as not to let a profit turn into a loss, I just placed a sell stop order at $0.66 for the 5000 shares I purchased yesterday at $0.66.
ReplyDeleteCleared off C/INTC/BYD for about a 3% return average. New YTD highs.
ReplyDeleteI guess I just think that there could be some real fireworks on the rebalancing today. And if so, I'd have to guess it will be to the down side. Last hour could get really interesting.
ReplyDeleteIf things get out of hand, Topstep is looking at the 1104 gap.
DougKass
ReplyDeleteI have covered my trading short rentals into this mroning's reversal. $$
Give me an Fing break. He's been adding for over a week and a 6pt. drop in the SPX today was what he was looking for? Come on.
This thing desperately needs both a fast forward and rewind button.
ReplyDeleteJPM holding on by a finger nail.....
ReplyDeleteagree Kass is full of it. used to like the guy prior to his tie up w/cramer....since then he can't hit the side of a barn.
ReplyDeletewe should "ramp" today, but only to 1145, which keeps turning out to be "no mans land"
ReplyDeleteHobo Bills Last Ride (Jimmy Rodgers)
ReplyDeleteHo -oh oh bo-oh-oh Billy
Riding on an eastbound freight train speeding through the night. Hobo Bill, a railroad bum was fighting for his life.
The sadness of his eyes revealed the torture of his soul, he raised a weak and weary hand to brush away the cold.
Ho -oh oh bo-oh-oh Billy
No warm lights flickered around him, no blankets there to fold. Nothing but the howling wind and the driving rain so cold.
When he heard a whistle blowing in a dreamy kind of way, the hobo seemed contented for he smiled there where he lay.
Ho -oh oh bo-oh-oh Bill
Outside the rain was falling on that lonely boxcar door but the little form of Hobo Bill lay still upon the floor. While the train sped through the darkness and the raging storm outside, no one knew that Hobo Bill was [G] taking his last ride.
I agree with both of you guys on Kass. He's just a trader that wants to be right all of the time. Problem is he has had way too many bad calls.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of (bad) calls. Look at IMMR. I was all about that stock (and still am) but when I tried to buy it last week around $5.15 and they kept running the Bid up every time I tried, I just gave up. Should have just been buying at the Ask.
ok last hour is here. obvious direction is up.
ReplyDeletewe go down instead:)
With crude @ 80, I just can't believe we get some pull back here. PXP really out preforming today. Oh well....
ReplyDeleteCADC - Do ya' think it's possible the chicken-shits who sold going into earnings will be buying back now?
ReplyDeleteJPM catching a bid here.
ReplyDeleteEvergreen Solar:
ReplyDeleteThe reading I did last night AFTER I bought it at a similar price to David scared the hell out of me and made me realize that this company is not for me so I sold.
PAL: some days you play the market, some days the market plays you, and some days the market plays you like Paganini playing a Stradivarious:)!
damn, IMMR would have been a sweet one to get in this a.m.
ReplyDelete1152 - Don't it make your brown eyes blue!
ReplyDeleteGULLIBILITY
ReplyDeleteI was gullible to 2nd's short panic on the fake jobs data
I was gullible to Mark's NG panic
Those were, like EVERY OTHER FUCKING PANIC I'VE SEEN, THE ABSOLUTE PERFECT TIMES TO BUY, NOT SELL
VERY EXPENSIVE LESSONS
ReplyDeleteV at the bottom of it's daily channel.
ReplyDeleteshark, I agree -- the stuff I read about ESLR is scary in that it suggests that the company will NEVER be competitive. With such mood out there, would it be reasonable for ESLR to have monster short covering rallies periodically? Isn't the fact that it already broke the resistance at $0.7 suggesting that we might be in one of those short covering rallies?
ReplyDeleteI am moving my sell stop order to 0.68, so as to definitely make some profit on my latest purchase at 0.66.
I'm adding more BTIM here at 4.80, for a hold, not a trade
ReplyDeletePanic? I put a bid in .08 below the initial spike down. When natty comes in on the fringe of estimates, it usually has 2 legs to the move in either direction. 10% is not unheard of. Either way, I hope I didn't screw you up.
ReplyDeleteJB- What's your basis in BTIM?
BTW...BTIM is right at the 365 ma.
ReplyDeleteJPM just broke support.
ReplyDeleteDidn't accuse you of that, just saying the correct move was to FADE the PANIC as always, and use your comments to know when it was at maximum panic.
ReplyDeleteI should have thrown absolutely everything into TZA on 2nd's panic call.
NG, I give up. Its a completely hopeless lost cause.
yes i rebought pal..
ReplyDeletefirst i tried at 4 then 402 no one would sell.
so i ponied up later and will pray to jeezus 2nite:)
On your fins Sharkie :)
ReplyDeletePaging VB!!!!!
BTIM -4.36
ReplyDeleteWith so much volume, I can't believe we stay here. I still say down.
ReplyDeleteI wonder what happened to WATG a little while ago -- it just collapsed, and my sell to open order for 10 November $7.50 puts at $0.5 was hit. So I either pocket $500 by November OpEx or buy some WATG at $7, a 1.5 year low.
ReplyDeleteSo now I *definitely* should stay away from selling any more puts, since I have probably committed a little more cash than I have in my port to covering all my outstanding short puts.
REE - nice EOD spike
ReplyDeleteNot much on the imbalances.
ReplyDeleteBuy...JPM/MS
Sell....BAC
2 more of interest...
ReplyDeleteBuy...HUN/DOW.
Man, ESLR is on a tear! Up 13% already! So the death slide into the oblivion will probably start tomorrow, after most of the shorts get covered today and no more buyers remain... I am raising my sell stop to $0.7 for the 5000 shares I purchased at $0.66 yesterday. A $200 gain is good enough for me -- that's 4 bottles of Nadurra! :)
ReplyDeleteJB- OK, stinky on BTIM @ 7.68.
ReplyDelete$ES_F #futures $SPX MOC $700M for sale IMBALANCE
ReplyDeleteDavid- Isn't the strike on WATG 8.50?
ReplyDeleteNo -- they go as $5, $7.50 and $10.
ReplyDeleteDavid- Sorry, I get it.
ReplyDeleteWOW...Leo A named CEO of HPQ.......sure hope when I'm canned that I meet a similar fate!!!
ReplyDeleteTough day at the office... I'll bet the order imbalance wasn't $0 on the sell side today.
ReplyDeletePort gained a hair over 2% today, definitely feels like running on borrowed time.
David,
ReplyDeleteGREAT JOB on the ESLR.
I wasn't even really scared it would go down much. I just thought it was incapable of rising. I feel very wrong and very sorry about selling this. Not that it's any good, just that I was frigging wrong after being right. If I'm you I say screw the 4 bottles of Nadurra. Buy one and drink it. and keep the ESLR as long as it's running right. Shit I'd buy it back if I thought I wouldn't get dicked like the new guy at Rikers:)
Now I will watch it for future signs of life but my history of buying back higher isn't particularly good. If it looks like it really wants to rally I will try to re-buy.
So I am back in PAL and hoping I don't regret it. I bought it fairly well but had a bigtime crisis of confidence as the beard was elocuting and the Dow was down 80.
It is now rising out of it's consolidation pattern, so it's a safer-than-even bet it does go higher.
Jeez WATG collapsed today. WTF. I can't help but think that volatility happens at tops and bottoms and this seems like a bottom to me. That thing is an absolutely no brainer long term hold to me.
ReplyDeleteHPQ - That's great, HPQ puts a tiger in their tank!
ReplyDeleteWATG tested the 50SMA on no news? Was this related to the currency issue and were other Chinese exporters affected?
ReplyDeleteXING - Cash per share is nearly $6 and PPS is $1.50?
ReplyDeleteCP - My initial knee jerk reaction was negative (recently canned s/w guy picked to run h/w monster) but then more I thought about it I think it could be a good move. Leave Ann, Cathy, etc in place and focus on s/w, specifically focus on SAAS, BI, EPM, etc, etc. Leo is a huge SAAS guy and he also pulled the trigger on the BOBJ so he knows BI/EPM and he knows how to integrate s/w co's.....what will his first target be - CRM?
ReplyDeleteXING looks like a fraud...
ReplyDeleteHPQ...Well the street didn't like it so far.
ReplyDeleteJB- See, there might be hope for you after all. Once your canned maybe IBM will be looking for a CEO.
Man, AAPL/NFLX/AMZN/BIDU sure look in trouble here.
ReplyDeleteAs expected DB gapped higher, but closed at the bottom of the gap. I'm still interested.
ReplyDeleteXING - I think they're going through some kind of acquisition/merger, so it's probably already baked into the cake.
ReplyDeleteHPQ - Leo, lion/tiger; get it? ;) I really don't have a take other than perhaps leaning towards the long side on a pullback if anything. It seems very liquid.
maybe Leo will want to bring me over.....LOL
ReplyDeleteDB - Speaking of this one, XLF was surprisingly strong in today's pullback, which ruffles my undercoat concerning the recent rally.
ReplyDeleteIYT has been kicking tail though, so maybe we're kosher for the most part?
ReplyDeletebizarre that none of my holdings (BYD, NLS, C, RAS) went down today. I should probably be selling. Maybe after BYD gets bought out!
ReplyDeleteWATG - EOQ profit taking victim maybe? How are Chinese auto sales, last I heard they were holding up well... lots of expansion plans.
ReplyDeleteYou think HP might be interested in a leopard to balance their portfolio?
ReplyDeleteYRCW - Red-headed hockey puck.
ReplyDeleteHPQ - Technically, it's sitting at the limit of a negative sloping upper trend line going back to mid April, kinda looks like a sell.
ReplyDeleteBut you know how these things go, forward P/E is pretty low, PEG isn't too bad and they've got a reasonable amount of cash...
Personally, I don't really understand why so many companies haven't deployed a majority of their cash already but then again I'm not exactly the sharpest tool in the shed either...
WATG- I heard on the radio today that the Chinese Gov. is saying if you want to sell cars there, they will have to be built there, and take on a Chinese parter. They also mentioned the impact on parts suppliers. Maybe?
ReplyDeleteWATG-AONE....Batteries weren't in favor either today ;)
ReplyDeleteHigh Speed Rail - Wonder if Cali contracts a Chinese manufacturer (fastest train on earth) CADC might receive some indirect positive exposure?
ReplyDeleteOr for that matter, receiving direct exposure would be a real feather in their cap.
ReplyDeleteNah, I'm NEVER that lucky...
Chinese autoparts requirement - Wouldn't that add value to WATG's bottom line? Man, I thought China was supposedly working to open their markets... Surely they realize this currency bill moving through congress doesn't have a snowball's chance and that it's already watered down just before the recess.
ReplyDeleteThe currency bill won't even get looked at again until after mid terms and couldn't possibly be enacted until some time next year if ever....
A pure political stunt, it simply has no teeth or support IMO.
BYD - Oh I see, this is a potential Buffett play (no, not a reference to the singer-songwriter).
ReplyDeleteKinda old news(still applicable?), but this doesn't sound very good:
ReplyDelete"Goldman's Andrew Tilton: Sep. 16, 2010, 5:04 AM
The vigorous rebound in industrial activity that began in mid-2009 has begun to fade in recent months. This is already quite evident in the growth rate of industrial production, and to a lesser extent in the decline of the ISM manufacturing index from its peak in April.
We expect the ISM index to decline to 50 or below by early 2011. A significantly weaker ISM manufacturing index would be more consistent with a) the detail of the ISM report, specifically the small gap between the new orders and inventories indexes, b) the weighted average of regional factory surveys, c) the current rate of inventory growth, which has stabilized the manufacturing I/S ratio, d) the typical behavior of the ISM index after large inventory cycles such as the one we have just experienced, e) the recent sub-1% pace of final demand growth."
http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-the-ism-manufacturing-index-will-collapse-by-2011-2010-9
Big red candlestick on today's action.
ReplyDeleteChicken - no, BYD as in Boyd Gaming. I'm long the stock for a variety of reasons, but the primary one is this:
ReplyDeletethey own 50% of the Borgata, a really solid casino in Atlantic City...in fact, probably the only really solid one in AC. MGM owns the other 50%. MGM is being forced to sell their remaining stake in the casino by the state of NJ because of ties they have to an organized crime guy in Asia. Boyd has right of first refusal on the remaining 50% stake. Borgata earned about $17 Million in profits last quarter alone. At a time when consumer spending hasn't really rebounded a ton. Should a rebound come, I'd suspect that their profits will grow quite a bit. Either way, it's a very profitable casino and one that the other Casinos have to be eyeing up. I suspect there will be a lot of interest for the remaining 50% stake. And I think one of the bigger players is going to come in and buy out BYD to get the Borgata. It's a pipe dream, maybe, but BYD is way too undervalued. Their trading at 0.5 times book when MGM, LVS, WYNN, etc are trading at 2 to 4 times book.
**they're*** not their
ReplyDeleteAfter looking at a lot of situations like this (BYD) and seeing IBM/MSFT/etc issue these bonds at ridiculously low yields and seeing companies like FDX raising guidance, I think buying equities right now could be quite lucrative over the next 10 years.
ReplyDeleteTOF - Yes, I see I jumped the gun. Sorry, I thought I'd found something new. Interesting how Buffett would comment on pink-sheet stuff though.
ReplyDelete"Chinese electric car and battery firm BYD (Pink Sheets: BYDDF - News) has gotten some negative press of late after the company missed second-quarter earnings expectations and slashed its 2010 sales outlook by -25%, but recent remarks by Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A - News, BRK-B - News) CEO Warren Buffett have helped the stock higher."
And please don't be concerned with an occasional mistake, we all know the difference between "their" and "they're" so IMO no need to correct if you get it right most of the time then an occasional error is lost in the vapor. We're all human and make mistakes, what matters is knowing the difference.
Unless of course you a grammar Nazi! LOL ;)
I agree. Although we may have even better opportunities to buy in the near future, I'm just trying to take advantage of the crisis b/c in my experience you so often get only one chance at bat going through life.
ReplyDeleteMaybe markets are different from life and the experts are right concerning rookie retail folks like me trying their hand...
Special Report: The ties that bind at the Federal Reserve
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By Kristina Cooke, Pedro da Costa and Emily Flitter
NEW YORK/WASHINGTON | Thu Sep 30, 2010 4:19pm EDT
NEW YORK/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - To the outside world, the Federal Reserve is an impenetrable fortress. But former employees and big investors are privy to some of its secrets -- and that access can be lucrative.
On August 19, just nine days after the U.S. central bank surprised financial markets by deciding to buy more bonds to support a flagging economy, former Fed governor Larry Meyer sent a note to clients of his consulting firm with a breakdown of the policy-setting meeting.
The minutes from that same gathering of the powerful Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, are made available to the public -- but only after a three-week lag. So Meyer's clients were provided with a glimpse into what the Fed was thinking well ahead of other investors."
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68S01020100930
All right, shark -- I will restrict myself to just one bottle, which I already bought today to commemorate my SD trade (bought at $4.66, sold today at $5.66). I picked up Don Julio Blanco tequila for at Costco only for $28! Since I already still have some Nadurra at my bar, I'll let ESLR run. However, I *will* keep raising my stop for it, since this rally can easily turn out one of those oversold bounces that fails.
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