Monday, September 13, 2010

9/14/10 Runaway Train



Runaway train? No, I can't chase it. I'm going to stick to entries and exits on my terms, one trade at a time.

I'll tell you what you're gonna do. You are going to get a job, some little job a convict can get. Like sweeping floors, or cleaning out toilets. And you're gonna hold on to that job like gold, because it is gold. Let me tell you Jack.

ARE YOU LISTENING TO ME?

If you could do that, if you could do that, you could be president of Chase Manhattan...corporations...if you could do that.


Wish I could, brother. Wish I could.

We're going to sell off at some point. I don't when it's going to happen. But when it does, I'll be waiting.

94 comments:

  1. I just posted the following on caracommunity

    Deutsche Bank - Global Natural Gas slide presentation
    Submitted by Port2013 (31 comments) on Mon, 09/13/2010 - 22:30 #69098
    Deutsche Bank had a conference call presentation today on global natural gas that I think some of you will find interesting. I was listening in on the conference call but I didn't see the slide presentation until after the call so I have not read through the whole thing yet.

    http://energyandenvironmentblog.dallasnews.com/nat...

    Also, just a note for the file. I didn't post the presentation on the internet, I found it FREE via a link on The Dallas Morning News website.

    port2013

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  2. There we go, now I'm logged in.

    Some comments I found interesting from the conference call

    The market is much more sensitive to oil risk because oil production has a more difficult time increasing with price. With natty, its easier to produce more gas with an increase in price.

    Forget the oil/natty price relationship. Look at coal/natty (or maybe its natty/coal but you get the point).

    LNG in Europe is still mostly tied to some sort of oil index price (I did verify this with my contact at CIBC last week). It sounds like Gazprom is holding back production because some customers are wanting to change this to a more gas on gas price which is the way most things are priced in the US. Japan uses a crude oil cocktail price for example. A lot more LNG is going to Europe to replace the Gazprom production and there is more LNG coming online in the near future so he thinks LNG imports into the US will increase.

    In the US, there has been a much stronger demand for gas so far this year than forecasted due to HDD (heating degree days) and CDD (cooling degree days). Weather and Gazprom holding back production have helped us with our gas glut in the US.

    He thinks the drilling activity stays high into and possibly through 1st quarter 2011.

    Later this week I hope to go over the slide presentation and maybe listen to a replay of the conference call. I'll try to post some notes later this week or early next week if I find anything of interest.

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  3. Landry-

    Random Thoughts:

    The market had a very impressive day.

    This action has the Ps bumping up against the top of their range.

    However, let's not start kissing each other just yet.

    As usual, follow through will be key.

    The recent run has the indices very overbought. However, that in and of itself isn't reason to get excited.

    For now, the big blue arrow continues to point sideways.

    Therefore, again, there's still trend to follows.

    Best of luck with your trading today!

    Dave

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  4. Kudos to BC for posting:

    'I pretty much came to this conclusion during yesterday’s session as I saw that Regional Banks in the US (RKH) had soared about +3.5% in the first 20 minutes. Thinking that the bloom had come off the rose by 11:00am ET, and that the day’s moon-shot would end badly for high-risk buyers, I increased my market short.

    Note to self: Seldom do high-risk buys work. They are a sign of an impending blow-off. Sustainable rallies are based on the reasons already covered here, which did not happen.

    I need that fortitude because about 2:15pm there was a change in the market “feel” as prices started to lift again, the shorts being squeezed into the close. In the final hour, from 3 to 4pm, I noted that capital was flowing freely into stocks like Intel (INTC), which really panicked the shorts and the managers who were sitting on cash, afraid to miss a Bull move.

    At the end of the day I resigned myself to the fact that one of my accounts had suffered one of the worst drawdowns I can recall. Small comfort is the news from Zacks Research they decided to put on more shorts and that our computer model re-issued a Sell on the one account that was causing me so much grief.

    I can only feel better knowing that extraneous factors occasionally come into play, like for instance the wind gusts at the US Tennis Open that caused some of the world’s best players to swing and completely miss the ball or the baffling ruling on a game-winning touchdown by the Detroit Lions on Sunday or the clearly blown call by a baseball umpire in June that cost a Detroit Tigers pitcher a game ending perfect game.

    http://tinyurl.com/36esd59

    Stuff happens. It’s how we handle it that matters.'

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  5. Everyone on board?? toot toot

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  6. Re Morning Call newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4563 comments) on Tue, 09/14/2010 - 09:20 #69116
    Bill- Thanks. Transparency is what elevates your blog above the others. It's impossible to learn from traders who only post successes- I prefer watching great traders handle situations that move against them. It reminds me of watching Staubach pull off those amazing come-from-behind wins in the fourth quarter.

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  7. 2nd - i'm still hearing / reading way too much skepticism about the markets. I think this plays well into the rally continuing.

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  8. Hey- I just made $24 trading FAZ from 12.90 to 12.94...

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  9. tof- Could be. I don't know which way to lean right now- obviously the market is overbought and due for a pullback.

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  10. Sold mt wife's DGP this am at 34.01 for about $1 a share profit.

    LOL, she isn't awake, so doesn't know I sold it, so I'm going to get killed if it zooms higher. I figure upside vs downside risks at the moment say its time to take the profits.

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  11. morning all. going to pick up C this a.m., poked thru R3, think it's good for .25-.50.

    all this sitting on my hands is numbing my fingers.

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  12. cancel that C trade, must have been problems w/my charting s/w as now I show C below S1....crap

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  13. 2nd - market was overbought and due for a pullback in early March and it ran for another month+. It can work off it's overbought condition pretty quickly by going sideways for a couple of days.

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  14. lookin' 2 re-buy in the 6's.

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  15. That's better- made $474 trading TZA from 29.63/29.76 to 29.99/29.97...

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  16. alright now lets see how the market reacts to this sell off...i just moved some of my sidelined cash from Friday into BGU on this pullback to 1,115

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  17. miners soaring.

    the term "depression" is top ten trending words in Yahoo.

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  18. Alright...sold my CREE at $51.2 that I bought at $48.1 average. Between my initial losses and these gains, I think I just about broke even on this stock. Oh well.

    Moved my money into C at $3.94.

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  19. Looks like another day of waiting for me. So far, I'm impressed with the market though at these levels. A little back and filling in good.

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  20. CP- Did CADC FINALLY report???? Can't seem to find it's way today.

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  21. Some good follow through in the semi's....

    Trany's up....barely.

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  22. I'm still viewing TLT as a bear trap. Bears have to hang their hat on something here but I see beaten down techs like INTC and CSCO finally starting to turn, I see financials bouncing back...I think this has to get bears scared shitless. I think we'll be at 1,140 soon. Almost all other markets around the world have broken out above the summer highs. Look at the FTSE. I think we follow them.

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  23. Of course, having sat around watching palladium rise and PAL fall the past few days, it is with a sense of detatched, slightly pissed off bemusement that I watch the Goddamn thing go up without me.

    I kind of concluded the other day, yesterday I guess, to never go long PAL again, I've been fucked so many times by it.

    MAde some money on MU but not enuff. It was hard re-buying like I said I had wanted to, and I wound up standing aside.

    I got fucked by PAL like a heroin smuggler in a Turkish prison.

    How about those Jets? That big fat retard Rex Ryan better shut his big fat mouth. You suck. Sanchez sucks.

    Jets suck!

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  24. Someone should email Bill Cara and tell him gold may be breaking out:)

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  25. Sharkie- If the Jets and 49ers played right now, somehow the score would be negative.

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  26. CADC - "7:55AM China Adv. Construction Materials announces concrete sales contracts totaling $12 mln (CADC) 3.26 : Co announces a number of contracts recently awarded to its Concrete Sales division totaling $12 mln. Last month, co announced its preliminary estimate for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2010 ended June 30 includes Concrete Sales revenue ~ doubling from $11.7 mln in the year-ago quarter."

    No earnings report yet, don't have a date for that but expect sometime this month as Aug 30 was end of quarter.

    Wow, look at palladium fly! All the PM's, for that matter..

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  27. hey - easy on the jets! i'm a lifelong sufferer.

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  28. CADC - Sorry, quarter ended June 30 according to that brief press release, I thought it was end of Aug...

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  29. PAL - I guess if we wanna ride palladium PALL or maybe SWC?

    Just think what might happen if PAL actually succeeds with bringing cost of gold production in line in for their clapped-out Sleepy Giant mine... or not!

    Actually, SWC is working on a deal to acquire another palladium producer I think I read.

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  30. Sold my BGU just now at $50.3 and moved it into C at $3.94.

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  31. I remember listening to the FAN when Benigno used to call in. He's neurotic, he's irrational, he's bipolar...he's a Jets fan.

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  32. Trying to get used to the new user interface on my brokerage account, takes more navigation to see everything now.

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  33. I really miss the overnight shows Joe used to do after he got hired.

    I can't stand how he's been partnered up with these stunads for the past few years.

    This latest one, the red-haired kid is the worst of all. Frigging unlistenable. And I hate the role Joe is reduced to in this format. Hey I'm listening to the Joe and the Jerkoff show right now. Good show name idea eh? Email them:)

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  34. It's silly time....


    (CNSNews.com) – The National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH), a division of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), spent $823,200 of economic stimulus funds in 2009 on a study by a UCLA research team to teach uncircumcised African men how to wash their genitals after having sex.

    Let's all sing together.....

    "Oh wouldn't you like to be Tiger's caddy?...
    Wouldn't you like to wash Tiger's balls...:)"

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  35. Oh boy, my broker has integrated delayed quotes into some of the user interface features!

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  36. Wash genitals only after sex? Wow, that's a time saver!

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  37. C - Rated "buy" Morningstar 7/15/10...

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  38. sharkie,

    why not try redf instead of pal.

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  39. Thanks VB.

    I merely did the wrong thing in PAL.

    I would be heading for the hills in REDF if I were long it.

    I am thinking that Yamana wants to go higher.

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  40. just got long some auy

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  41. I wake up, look at the markets, and what do I see? The market advances for the 6th day in a row (or maybe more, I lost count), while gold surges to new highs and TBT drops for a second day in a row. These are not good signs for a continuation of this rally. So I decided to take profits today.

    I sold at $9.75 my 300 shares of UCO that I purchased at $9.30 (and held through a drop to $8.30). Oil is definitely not oversold at this point, so my original intention of playing a bounce in oil has finally materialized.

    Also, I sold at $18.75 the 300 shares of INTC I purchased at $18.06 last week. It might only be having a deeply oversold bounce now -- who knows? I played the bounce and I am out.

    I also sold at $4.86 the 500 shares of SD I purchased at $4 a couple of weeks ago. I am still keeping another 500 shares I purchased at $4.2, for which I placed a sell limit order at $5.50.

    Finally, after seeing ^VIX at 20, I figured that market puts are finally cheap and so I also purchased one January $70 put on IWM at $7.25 so as to make my portfolio even more market-neutral (even though I probably still have a small long bias, as my PM exploration stocks are positively correlated with S&P).

    This goes along the lines of my decision a while ago to stop playing the equity market and instead start playing the gold market.

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  42. Another reason for taking profits on many positions today and buying puts to make my portfolio more market-neutral is that I am pretty happy with my portfolio value now and I want to preserve my account balance. My OptionsHouse account, where I used to keep my ultrashorts, went from being -10% YTD in late April to +13% now. My Scottrade account is basically flat and my ETrade account is also up about 10% due to ECU.TO. This puts my total accounts at the highest level since March 2009, and only 10% away from the all-time high on September 2008. Another 10% advance in the gold price and my GLD/CEF/ECU.TO positions will take my account to new highs. So I'll just wait instead of fighting the black-box models while trading the equity market.

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  43. BWEN - Will this one EVER stop falling?

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  44. It has just occurred to me that if I want to take a full advantage of the low VIX, then I should buy at-the-money or out-of-the-money puts, whose price depends much more on VIX than the price of deep in-the-money puts. So I just bought one SPY January $112 put for $6.08.

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  45. David - I think TLT is a bear trap. I think it's nothing more than a technical bounce off the 200 DMA and I expect it to gap lower one of these days. I think people are coming to the realization that maybe the economy is better than people feared and the valuation of stocks is still quite reasonable.

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  46. STT: Went long again at $38.06

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  47. TOF, if you read the latest article by John Mauldin (which is an excellent reading for everyone!):

    http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2010/09/10/the-last-half.aspx

    it becomes clear that betting on a sustained economic growth in USA, Europe and Japan is a very risky proposition for the next 10 years. A much clearer trend is devaluation of paper currencies (in an effort to stimulate exports and inflate away the government debt), which will lead to a sustained growth in the gold price. So I want to stay away from playing the equity market as much as possible and focus on playing the gold market.

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  48. David - Anyone that can say with certainty how the next 10 years is going to pan out is full of it in my mind. I've never held a stock for more than a year so to make an investment based on what I think will happen 10 years from now is ludicrous.

    This Mauldin guy has been bearish for a while now, no? like the past 7 years or so? Well, the markets have had significant rallies during that time that have made people a lot of money. I'm betting this current rally continues for another 5 to 10%.

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  49. End of broad rally with last verse being parabolic PM's?

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  50. TOF -- extrapolation to 10 years was my own thinking. He basically outlined very strong economic headwinds that WILL be present for a LONG time, while at the same time very strong TAILWINDS will be present for gold for a LONG time. So to me it has become clear which market one should invest into or trade from the long side.

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  51. Holy smoke! UNG went green again! The expected profit taking after two positive days finished in a matter of hours -- this is a definite change in character (relative to what we saw in August) and a good sign that at least one of my sell limit orders on HNUZF will be hit in the near future. :)

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  52. Interesting little reversal mid day. Especially in crude/natty. Dips still getting bought.

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  53. Thanks Mark! Makes up for my frustration in CREE, which amounted to nothing but stress and no profits/losses.

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  54. BBY - Anyone impressed by their results? I am, at least on the surface.

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  55. Man, their trading the stuff I follow really hard. Lot's of volatility.

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  56. CP- Yeah, I am too actually. Trying to get back into CADC....Knowing that MM I'll get the chance :).

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  57. In an effort of speeding up the process of getting out of all my non-gold related positions, I decided to lower my sell limit orders on the remaining shares of SD I was buying during its recent collapse: to $5.20 for 500 shares purchased at $4.20 and to $5.66 for 500 shares purchased at $4.66.

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  58. I just noticed that I got stopped out at $4 for the 1000 shares of HEK I purchased at $4.20 recently. All the better for me -- more cash on hand.

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  59. CREE - Seems a little expensive in comparison to say, MSFT, considering EV/EBIT is 14.85(yahoo fig.) for CREE. VECO's EV/EBIT is 7.74, seems a better value to me...

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  60. I'd rather adopt 2nd_ave's strategy now of waiting for a real market sell-off and then redeploying my cash to the best bargains that will be around at the time. In fact, I am planning to wait until the depth and desperation of the next recession, which should come no later than 2012, probably earlier.

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  61. TOF mentioned increasing potential for corporate borrowing, I guess there'll be more corp bond sales cash raise-ups as long as rates remain low.

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  62. Man, the hammered the XLF into the close.

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  63. CADC - I guess the MM's gonna keep whipping this one around till' earnings release.

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  64. PAL - Did you guys sell yours today? I woulda'

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  65. AMD - I had told myself I'd start an AMD position if I could get some in the low 5's, have I missed my chance?

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  66. CP, you'll get a great chance to open an AMD position at much lower prices in the middle of the next recession.

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  67. David - Well, should I be looking forward to it? I guess not.

    Anyways, I can live without it for now at least. ;)

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  68. Gold - Did anyone discover what enticed all the enthusiasm toward gold today? A new high, quite impressive yet baffling.

    Is CYB gonna break out?

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  69. Dollar dropped 1% is what moved gold. A lot of that was the move against the yen.

    It surprised me that the market didn't tank like it usually seems to anytime the yen is strong. Maybe the relationship is really that the yen is strong when funds sell their stocks, but not necessarily the other way around.

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  70. I really can't find any catalysts to entice the S&P over 1130 and knock us out of this range if the economic picture doesn't start to materialize to the upside.

    Massive corporate layoffs have hit the economy in the gut, right where it counts, but it's nice knowing WDC has at least successfully rescued Wall Street banks.

    I dare 'em to even whisper a word about raising taxes on the masses.

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  71. Dollar - Okay, the one thing I hadn't been paying attention to....

    A lower dollar serves to help US manufactured exports.

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  72. Sounds like Japan is a bit fed-up with Chinese currency pegs.

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  73. I wouldn't be too surprised to wake tomorrow morning and find silver well under $20. One problem with shorting silver, or even gold, is the safe-haven phenomenon, which if equities do begin to trend down could negate silver downside.

    Or maybe the safe-haven claim is just a bunch of malarkey? If I were China, I wouldn't be buying anyone's debt, I'd be out strategically shopping for commodities like oil, PGM's and perhaps PM's, but are PM's really still heading upward? I mean, really?

    So perhaps shorting equities would be a better choice at this point?

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  74. TOF, you said that there is still a lot of scepticism over the recent market rebound? Here is what David Rosenberg wrote yesterday:

    "In span of a few weeks, and based on a set of spurious set of economic data (like the fact that nine States had to guesstimate their level of jobless claims in last week’s “improvement”) a new consensus view has emerged that the double-dip scare of July and August was somehow just a bad joke not grounded in anything real, and that everything from housing, to employment, to consumer spending is doing just fine, thank you very much."

    So a lot of scepticism is definitely off the table, which can be confirmed by VIX falling all the way down to 20. In order for the remaining scepticism to evaporate, some real and sustained economic improvements have to start happening, and I am afraid that won't be possible since the big blue arrow in the post-stimulus economy is obviously pointing down.

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  75. Celebrating an anniversary? Anybody here planning on celebrating the Lehman collapse two years ago tomorrow?

    I'm not, I think the damage was considerably more destructive than if the bank had been rescued in the first place and we wouldn't have gotten so perilously close to a total financial collapse along with the complete load of baggage that came with it that we're still dealing with.

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  76. VIX - Good point David, so PM bugs shouldn't be claiming fear as this week's driving force for higher prices, more like a weaker U$D.

    Could be speculation in silver had several facets; lower dollar, increased industrial demand, shortages due to fallen excavation.

    We're gonna find out soon enough, aren't we?

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  77. DB, the source of nightmares across the globe, today hit the HOD on the day the news was released.

    In other words, for JB, anyone who wanted to get out because of the offering had a chance today.

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  78. DB offering - It's possible DB just wanted to get out in front with their offering while rates are still low, right?

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  79. CP- It's always better to get out ahead of any news like that.

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  80. My little first grade girl is starting to remind me of myself...

    She was sent to the principals office today.

    Details to follow if funny enough :)

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  81. Sent to principal's office? Not little Markie, oh no!

    Well, let's hear it?

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  82. ahhh, give us the details Mark!

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