Tuesday, September 14, 2010
9/15/10 Turn Blue
To truly convince buyers to step in, the market needs to create the impulse to buy. It succeeded this morning- it almost convinced me to buy. When I sense the impulse to buy, it's usually time to short. But therein lies the conundrum- how do I short against the impulse to go long? I can't always do it. The two 5-10 minute trades in TZA this morning don't count, as they were undertaken long before the impulse to buy kicked in.
From a purely objective viewpoint, I think we sell off Wednesday.
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CE had a really nice breakout today. Not interested at that level though.
ReplyDeleteCP- I wish it was something really funny, but not worth repeating. Anything juicy is fair game :)
ReplyDeleteCPE worth keeping an eye on still.
ReplyDeleteI'm definitely not planning to add here that's for sure, too many undetermined factors remain.
ReplyDeleteMark, I'll take your word on that.
ReplyDeleteIs it possible to train a wild animal? I haven't seen that fox since I nearly trapped him in the duck's flight pen....
He'll be back.
CADC - 2X volume today, WTFIUWT?
ReplyDeleteBWEN - Market seems to have determined the outcome for primary elections in advance?
ReplyDeleteDSPY had an inside out day. Wed. of OPEX are usually volatile, and today's trading was crazy with higher volume. Things about to happen????
ReplyDeleteMake that SPY of course....
ReplyDeleteNUE - Guidance warning hit steel pretty hard today.
ReplyDeletecp,
ReplyDeleteUnreal it has been 2 years since the Lehman collapse.
anyone better off then you were 2 years ago?
Last inside out day was I can find was 5/13....Don't look TOF :)
ReplyDeleteVB- Barely....Sorry we couldn't get together Sat.
ReplyDeletetonight, I am so happy being back in ca, just grillin my salmon on the barbeque in 70 degree perfect weather
ReplyDelete:)
mark, there will be many more opps. I was going to ask for a recipe for the salmon but a little olive oil and lemon and it comes out perfect.
ReplyDeleteI was at gulf shores and it is not safe to eat the seafood there. I used a net to scoop up this sheen I saw on the bay and when I brought the net up, it was filled with jelly. Wierd shit going on down there -
DBB - Running out of steam.
ReplyDeleteNet full of jelly? Yum, yum! ;( Wonder if BP longs are counting on any upside going forward?
ReplyDeleteLooks like the BOJ of has indeed had enough. Things could get REALLY crazy tomorrow :)
ReplyDeleteHeadline @ Nikkei.com....
ReplyDelete"MOF has appeared to intervene in FOREX markets."
holy shit...look at the moonshot in the Nikkei.
ReplyDeletehttp://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/freetop.aspx
Bp has been spraying dispersants for months via the coast guard/homeland security.
ReplyDeleteIt is horrifying
BOJ....
ReplyDeletehttp://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/tnks/Nni20100915D15SS333.htm
Go gettum!!!!!!
and I thought I could have a nice relaxing evening!
ReplyDeleteI agree with david's earlier post about long gold. My stock pick of the year was ngd.
ReplyDeleteHere is my first chart posting.... fwiw.. remember I am still a greenish pea (only 2 years)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/49728890@N06/4991194418/
VB, just for yucks, this is how I see NGD.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/YmU2NTcxNT
And your NO green pea. You kicked my butt holding longer off the lows than I did.
just posted on CC
ReplyDelete.Follow up to Deutsche Bank Global Natural Gas slide presentation newSubmitted by Port2013 (32 comments) on Tue, 09/14/2010 - 23:57 #69175
Follow up to my post on 9/13/10
Deutsche Bank - Global Natural Gas slide presentation
Submitted by Port2013 (31 comments) on Mon, 09/13/2010 - 22:30 #69098
I’m still going through the slide presentation but I’ll point out comments that I think are interesting as I come across them.
DB makes the following comment on page 32. “Rig counts, which sharply reversed in Jun 2009, are finally leveling off, but productivity of the fleet is keeping production aloft as drilling stabilizes… The economics in selected plays such as Granite Wash, Eagel Ford and Marcellus shales are supported by liquids contributions, yet still generate significant natgas production volumes. We estimate the current gas rig count of 980 rigs is 1.3-1.5x more productive than the same size fleet would have been back in 2004-05…” (main point highlighted in bold)
David, did you get my email a couple of weeks ago? If you did can you send it back to me? I was on a roll at 1:30 AM in the morn. I had some stuff in there I was going to ask MarkW about but I sent it via caracommunity and I don't have a copy of what I sent.
ReplyDeleteThanks.
Good trading for all tomorrow
By the way, I subscribe to Mad Hedge Fund Trader and Minyanville's Buzz & Banter. Mad Hedge seems bearish but most of the peeps on Buzz seem bullish to me. I should kill the Buzz anyway cuz I usually can't daytrade anyhow.
port2013 -- I didn't get any e-mails from you via CC. Can you please try again? Thanks...
ReplyDeleteChristine O’Donnell, the tea-party backed GOP nominee for Joe Biden’s Senate seat, on Wednesday morning attacked “Republican cannibalism” and said she doesn’t need the GOP establishment to win her Delaware race in November.
ReplyDeleteThis is the candidate who officially opposes masturbation. Seriously. She thinks it's a si nagainst the imaginary pie-in-the-sky when you die guy. I'm not kidding. She actually stated in an interview:
"if a guy is pleasuring himself, then what need does he have for me...?"
Exactly, bitch. That's a very good point. If I happen to be hanging with rosy palm and her five sisters, then I don't need to listen to you, you gerbil-faced rodent, running your annoying yap, do I? That's a very, very good point.
Oh and when will someone, anyone in the media please merely point out that the "Tea Party" has nothing to do with parties or with tea.
Hello... Tea Party = Nazi Party. Hello...McFly?
No where'd I put the vaseline and sticky mags?:):):)
We WILL eat the Republicans you know. We WILL bbq them and sauce them motherfuckers. Seriously.
And all this Tea Party bullshit is going to really make the have-nots want to get their filthy hands on the inherited wealth, the great untouchable in our system. I know it does mine:)
I sense some serious volatility today. I think the Yuan revaluation higher will ultimately cause the dollar to drop and equities to rise.
ReplyDeleteLong BGU in pre-market at $49.32.
ReplyDeleteand $49.3
ReplyDeleteLandry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
With a flat day, nothing has changed.
The market is bumping up against the top of its range.
It remains overbought.
The above suggests that it's due to correct.
That in and of itself isn't reason enough to get excited.
The big blue arrow continues to point sideways.
Therefore, your best action is probably no action.
Futures are soft pre-market.
Best of luck with your trading today!
And I thought the TEA party consisted of independents! Just the SOS re-invented?
ReplyDeleteWe're so screwed! Where are the independents?????
Let me tell you about a guy I know, his name happens to be Bob. Bob was one of the first guys I met when I moved back to town 5 years ago. We used to play golf together and we got along really well. Bob used to be the manager of sales of MSFT products in NY and NJ during the salad days of that biz. Due to his generous stock option packages, Bob wound up with a large amount of money a fortune I estimate based on his temperment and known expenditures at somewhere north of 20 million.
ReplyDeleteBob had some personal problems a few years ago in fact his son died, either an o-d or a suicide, I'm not sure which. Next thing I know, Bob joined the "Tea Party".
So picture this....A guy who made a fortune based on the economic dislocations (read people thrown out of work) by computer software (businessmen call these rooms full of bookkeepers thrown out of work as "efficiencies", or increased productivity. Increased productivity means fewer people working harder and making less. Anyway, this guy, basically a sales dog hits it big, makes a big pile and all of a sudden, instead of leaving well enough alone, all of a sudden this motherfucker becomes suddenly political. He says to Obama "get your filthy black African hands off of MY tax money. MY STINKING MONEY!
I asked his whether all the bailouts had left him bitter. Bob said "Bailouts?...what's bothering me, and I swear to Jesus he said this, he said "The problem was FDR. As in FDR drive. Roosevelt. The guy who singlehandedly saved free market capitalism from the communism that was coming, and this jackoff says that FDR is the problem.
More later.
I believe the best action is on the short side beginning at yesterday's close.
ReplyDeleteCouldn't locate pre-market quotes in my brokerage account this morning.
ReplyDeleteI don't see them taking out 1,115. That's why I would rather be a buyer of BGU here than BGZ.
ReplyDeletetalking up gold on cnbc
ReplyDeletestill long yamama
STT bounced hard this morning.
ReplyDeleteLooks like a triple top is forming?
ReplyDeleteWe'll see what happens in a 1/2 hour, but the market seems slow, low volume. I'm surprised.
ReplyDeleteStinkies in place for SWN/HEK/CADC/C.
They're not done ----ing with the bears. As much as I like 'Bev,' she needs to stop posting based on her expectations for a sell-off. It's turning out to be a contrary indicator.
ReplyDeleteAUY- Haven't looked at that one in a long time. I'm surprised it's still around 10.
ReplyDeleteIf financials join the party then we will close above 1,130 today. I'm watching GS like a hawk.
ReplyDeleteas well as JPM, C, and BAC
ReplyDeleteIs it just the stuff I follow, or is this market REALLY slow?!
ReplyDeleteLong INTC @ 18.68.
ReplyDeleteLong INTC Jan 18 calls @ 1.05.
CS likes INTC into 2011
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by Bill Cara (1767 comments) on Wed, 09/15/2010 - 09:58 #69202
CS report this morning:
INTC currently trades at 9.8x our 2011 est of $1.90, vs. its 5 year avg. of 15x; FCF yield is 11.3% on our 2011 estimates. Our PT of $28 represents a 15x P/E multiple on 2011 est. in-line with 5 year avg. OUTPERFORM
Re: CS likes INTC into 2011 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4564 comments) on Wed, 09/15/2010 - 10:17 #69206 (in reply to #69202)
ReplyDeleteLong INTC Jan 2011 18 calls @ 1.05.
Long INTC @ 18.68.
Maybe the inventory report will liven things up a little.
ReplyDeleteI think if we hold this level for the next half hour or so then we will most likely end the day up big. There are just too many damn bears out there.
ReplyDeletesd just broke 5.00
ReplyDeleteNope :(
ReplyDelete"Bev" used to annoy shit out of me, as did that entire crew of groupthinking morons until the happy day I stopped reading that crap.
ReplyDeleteSounds like she may have lost you a few scheckles eh?
Mark, AUY has GOTTA go up with gold doing what it's doing eh?
Re: CS likes INTC into 2011 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4565 comments) on Wed, 09/15/2010 - 10:48 #69209 (in reply to #69207)
ReplyDeleteSorry- Make that Oct 2010 $18 calls. I was looking at the Jan 2011 calls also, but elected for a shorter time frame...
Shark- I did well trading AUY last year. I was just surprised it's still sitting around 10. GL
ReplyDeleteI'm biased but it looks to me like the financials are holding ground. JPM and WFC just went green. If we get them going then bears might be toast.
ReplyDeleteRIG - wild ride today...
ReplyDeleteon the other hand if financials can't get going then i just don't see a helluva lot to pull the market up more.
ReplyDeleteI am surprised also. However, what I'm saying is, AUY is a severely undervalued asset and it's going up.
ReplyDeleteGold will rise and assume to an even greater degree it's status as the world's true reserve currency.
That situation will only continue over time.
I'm in my 40's now. When I'm 70 gold will be 5500, 6500, 7500 bucks.
I see the criminals at GOldman have been up to their old tricks.
Discrimitating against women, and downgrading Micron. Speaking of which, Goldman should be prohibited by law from accumulating MU at any price below the price it was at when the criminals at Goldman downgraded the sucker.
I'm actually glad I have a day job right now. Yikes this is boring today...GL guys.
ReplyDeleteTOF- I'm sure you are, but I'd also keep an eye on energy.
ReplyDeleteSold my BGU at $49.7
ReplyDeleteMU - I think this one's severely underpriced. Last time I was in Idaho the potato-heads only wanted technology, they weren't buying anything. We wound up loaning the cheapskates our machine.
ReplyDeleteAUY - I'm not as sure about.
tof- I'm glad you don't see any reason for the market to continue up. That's exactly the kind of sentiment we need from bulls to keep things moving up.
ReplyDelete2nd - yeah i agree. short term i just am seeing some of the stocks that i would think are needed to boost the market further stalling out/going down. Maybe I'm reading too much into an intraday move.
ReplyDeleteThen again, the banks (and not the brokers) are looking pretty solid. If they do manage to move higher then we are absolutely going higher. As it stands I'm about 90% long so you know what I'm rooting for.
ReplyDeletetof- I look at it this way- it needs to break out of a range one way or the other. If it's to break to the upside, then it needs to get >1200 one way or another. We're only at 1120.
ReplyDelete2nd - this week is pretty crucial. i think we need to see a rebound in the banks in order to get north of 1,130. i honestly don't know why we can't get above there because the economy is clearing NOT breaking down, but rather it is growing gradually. And during this time the corporate sector's balance sheet has been getting stronger and stronger. Recent M&A activity is a net positive and, just recently, an interest in increasing dividends(CSCO)/stock buybacks(MA)/debt for equity raises(MSFT) suggests to me that corporations are itching to use their excess cash in some way. If the government can incentivize spending by corporations, either through the proposed cap expenditure tax credit or some other means, then I think the market is quite undervalued. I think it could easily run to 1,250 or so. My bet is it happens because it is in everyone's vested interest to happen. So that's why I'm 90% long the market.
ReplyDeleteRe-entered my BGU long at $50.05. Now 100% long.
ReplyDeleteECU.TO is not doing too shabby today. It broke out of its recent consolidation pattern and now it has a lot of wind in its sails. And all of this is BEFORE the news of them refinancing their debt so as to lower their payments (which are supposed to start in November).
ReplyDeleteMaximum Frustration Leads Higher newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4567 comments) on Wed, 09/15/2010 - 13:00 #69223
ReplyDeleteIf the market invariably frustrates the majority, the path would appear to lead higher.
(a) A sell-off would confirm the expectations of the majority, whereas a continued advance would frustrate the majority (which would include the large number of investors in cash).
(b) There is no reason to continue higher, and every reason to sell off. The very sentiment that builds the wall of worry and fuels higher prices.
(c) Should we see an upside breakout, maximum frustration guarantees the fewest number of passengers on board. Another reason to position oneself for an upside breakout.
As always, JMO.
Kyle- Any idea what goosed HERO? Strange trading in PXP also.
ReplyDeleteMaster of the obvious...
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by nebish (56 comments) on Wed, 09/15/2010 - 13:53 #69228
I know everyone else see it too, but:
1. TLT continuing to sell off, despite predictions of a technical bounce; and
2. FXY selling off hard as predicted.
Call me Captain Obvious, but if bonds & yen are being liquidated, it can only lead to the risk trade being back on for the time being.
The tub water has to drain out somewhere, no?
Gold not being chased today from this liquidity drain. Stocks are cheap and patience will be rewarded if you can stand a little volatility near term. Perhaps there are no strong hands anymore? I see Yahoo Finance is touting the death of the stock-picker, yet last time I looked ole' Buffet still has more dough than anyone on the planet. Please be sure to read the part in the week in review that says "this paragraph is repeated because over time it works"...or words to that effect.
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Re: Maximum Frustration Leads Higher newSubmitted by teamonfuego (2169 comments) on Wed, 09/15/2010 - 14:08 #69229 (in reply to #69223)
2nd - Couldn't agree more...that's why I am fully loaded on the longs and have been for a while. I ain't buying the bears' arguments. Yesterday it was the TLT they were hanging on to...not sure what they will be hanging on to today. Maybe oil? I'm siding with the old sage, Warren Buffett. I see a gradually improving economy with solid corporate earnings pushing this market higher, not lower. I think there is a chance we can run to 1,250, much to the chagrin of most traders.
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Re: Master of the obvious... newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4568 comments) on Wed, 09/15/2010 - 14:08 #69230 (in reply to #69228)
nebish- Good point. What's 'obvious' is often only obvious when viewing with an objective lens. Otherwise, we risk seeing only what we want to see.
edit reply Bookmark this Ignore thread
Hmmm.....
ReplyDeleteVIX/$USD up.
T's down.
SPX flat.
We've spent 3 days right here.
Mark - not sure...was watching FUQI, VRGY.
ReplyDeleteMark - try this...
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2010/09/15/superior-energy-tetra-spike-on-report-gulf-wells-plugged/?mod=yahoobarrons
Kyle- Bingo. Thanks. I can't believe that didn't show up on my news feed.
ReplyDeleteI think they'll set a bear trap in the final hour- sell off just below the flat line, then close the trap in the morning.
ReplyDeleteVIX is creeping up like a friggin wedgie.
ReplyDeletePlaying TZA for a while there. Was very scary. Ran out of margin in one account, had to load a 2nd account. Escaped with $120 of profit but not worth the risk or aggravation.
ReplyDeleteBear trap looming? newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4569 comments) on Wed, 09/15/2010 - 14:49 #69238
ReplyDeleteWere I in charge of moving prices around, I would drop the market to just below the flat line in the final hour- then gap up Thursday morning to close the trap.
Not that they always follow each other, but it's interesting to see GMO holding up here while X continues to break down on the NUE news.
ReplyDeleteReversing into bull drive newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4570 comments) on Wed, 09/15/2010 - 15:20 #69240
ReplyDeleteMoving cash in the buy-and-hold back into OAKBX at end-of-day, a fairly conservative fund.
Who knows, really? We manage our portfolios as best we can.
http://www.streetinsider.com/Insiders+Blog/Citigroup+%28C%29+Shares+Set+to+Outperform+As+Latest+Treasury+Stock+Sale+Nears+an+End/5973147.html
ReplyDeleteWonder what that was about.
ReplyDeleteI am taking a gamble ahead of the UNG storage report tomorrow and removing my sell limit order on HNUZF at $4.50. The traders shorting NG are already stressed out after its recent run up, and if the report is good, they are likely to throw in the towel, start covering their shorts and send UNG to the moon (say to $7). If I wake up and see a good response from UNG, THEN I'll take partial profits on HNUZF. If, on the other hand, the reaction by UNG is negative, then so be it. UNG is close to the bottom, contango is down to 5% per month, and so I'll just wait until a really good rally finally takes place (and we know that such rallies always occur in NG after it gets oversold). In any case, my maximum losses on NG from this low level will be noise relative to the gains I am having today on ECU.TO. :)
ReplyDeleteAre you referring to a market spike up, Mark? A clear intraday support level has formed intraday for the Dow, and after it was defended yet again 30 minutes ago, the market had nowhere to move but up.
ReplyDeleteSPY missed yesterdays HOD by .07.
ReplyDeleteDavid- Yep. Biggest 3Min. volume bar of the day was on that spike.
Nada on imbalances.
ReplyDeleteI know, I know...But CRYP is showing some signs of life.
ReplyDelete3 biggies tomorrow. FDX/ORCL/RIMM.
ReplyDeleteI have just tallied up carefully the net deposits I made into my 3 trading accounts (since I started trading in early 2006) and compared that with my current balance. To my surprise, I found that I now have 40% more than I put in. Considering the fact that S&P is down about 10% over that time period, it looks like I didn't do so badly after all.
ReplyDeleteI have also corrected my calculations about my account balance at the all time high on September 2008 -- I was previously adding up my brokerage balance to my bank savings balance and was thinking that this is the net worth that I should reach in order for my accounts to be back to all time high. But then I realized that I was living off the money in the bank, taking vacations, etc., and so I should only look to match my brokerage account balance on September 2008.
Since I have added some money into my accounts during the crash (to cover the margin calls), I now have 10% more in my brokerage accounts than I had back then. In order for me to have the same *absolute profit* as I had in 2008, my current accounts only need to go up by 5%.
A moonshot in UNG tomorrow will make a decent contribution toward this goal. :)
How many times have we heard about the US deciding Chinese officials weren't manipulating their currency? Plenty!
ReplyDeleteJust another day chocked-full O' BS...