Monday, September 20, 2010

9/20/10 'Asia Soars'/ The Colin Twiggs Playbook

'Asia Soars'/ The Colin Twiggs Playbook newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4592 comments) on Mon, 09/20/2010 - 08:51 #69553
http://tinyurl.com/54qccl

"But we are approaching the end of the third quarter and fund managers may be supporting prices to window-dress their balance sheets. We can only be sure of the current resurgence when the quarter-end has passed. Expect a mid-October retracement to test the new support level."

"The S&P 500 is testing resistance at 1130; breakout would indicate a primary advance to 1220*. Twiggs Money Flow holding above the zero line indicates buying pressure. Again, it would be prudent to wait until mid-October to check if support continues after the quarter-end. Reversal below 1030 is unlikely at present, but would confirm the primary down-trend."


That would be about as good a 4-week road map as any.

101 comments:

  1. Hey Obama...Listen up bro.....

    Y'all can SPLIT the opposing Republican coalition along their most sensitive fracture line and get those well trousered dandies up in each other's face with one simple proposal, schmuck.....

    Offer to extend income tax cuts to the working rich, in exchange for substantial increases in the inheritance tax.....That would pit the working rich and the upper-upper middle class against the much smaller cadre with whom we have our greatesr quarrel, the do-nothing lazy bums who are known as the "ultra-rich".

    The above action would be both stimulative to the economy, and would serve to divide the opposition Republicans, as the upper middle class working rich would THROW THE ULTRA-RICH AND their inheritance tax non-ussue over the transom.


    YEAH, BABY!!!!!!!!!

    cmon Barry....Do something creative bro:)

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  2. Ever notice how Powerball winners very ralely live in the civilized states? Some dude just won 78 million in West Virginia. He's splitting the money with his wife and his siter, so I guess he wind up with only 39 million:)

    Recently, another dude won nearly 100 million in South Dakota.

    Now if you win 100 million in South Dakota, your first decision should be, sorry to say, choosing to move the heck out of South Dakota. How would you even begin to spend 100 million IN SD? It's basically impossible.

    And how about these people who say, at the post-win press-conference that they plan TO KEEP THEIR STUPID MINDLESS JOB, despite the win?

    These people are either

    a) Kidding, I hope, or
    b) the DUMBEST folks ever. Can you ImAGINE? "I'm pulling in over 5 million a year in interest income, however I plan to stay on part time at the conveniece store"....Why? "Cause I like it and my boss is depending on me":)

    Talk about missing the entire freaking concept:)

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  3. Won't work... The ultra rich are GIVING all their money away at death, so the gov't won't get it. If you want to tax income (which I think is dumb) you need a 20 to 25% flat tax with a 10,000 per person exemption, and NO other deductions at all. Personally, I'd rather see no income taxes at all, and a sales tax of 30% with a $3000 per person prebate.

    Case in point: Why does warren Buffet only pay 15%? Therein lies the problem...

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  4. The persistence of shorts confidently proclaiming that we sell off is the best possible scenario for a continued rally.

    I sense a massive short-squeeze in the offing- giving it even odds for now.

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  5. Landry-

    Random Thoughts

    Not much has changed. The indices are hovering near the top of
    their range/resistance, they remain overbought, and the big arrow
    continues to point sideways.

    One thing of interest is the fact that volatility continues to
    compress. In other words, the price hasn't moved much lately. Since
    traders rarely agree for long, we could see a big move soon.

    I guess the next question is which way?

    Well, NO one knows for sure. My gut is that we could see a fake out
    higher followed by the long overdue correction from overbought.
    However, unless you are a day trader, there's really nothing to do.
    Therefore, your best action is probably no action.

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  6. Sold my REDF shares at $4.24 that I bought on Friday at $3.84.

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  7. Bought more C at $3.96.

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  8. CTHR looks like a good buy right here. They have been growing revs/inc pretty rapidly and have had a lot of insider buying. They make moissanite, which is an alternative to diamonds.

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  9. I'm anxiously awaiting for Barry to do something creative. Where's the get-up & go?

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  10. stopped out of 1/2 of my CLF trade, my biggest TA screw up to date. can't afford too many more of those f-ups.

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  11. 10,700/1140> if we can close above these two psychologically important levels, the rally has room to run.

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  12. Started new position redf at 4.37

    vanila b

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  13. Good morning boys....Got home very late and am trying to get caught up with work.

    You might get your squeeze sooner rather than later if this can hold 2nd.

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  14. At some point, traders transition from 'overbought' to 'man the rally's taking off without me.'

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  15. "Good morning BOYS" I wonder if Mark calls alligators lizards?

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  16. It's actually encouraging the indexes are taking off without the semis- we need more sectors behind this move...

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  17. ok, i FINALLY took a little off the table on REDF. I sold 20% of my original position at $4.7.

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  18. From Mark's vantage point, maybe it makes sense...

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  19. 4.70? Holy shit, man. That's one rocket I can only watch from the ground.

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  20. so big blue picks up NZ, while INFA just sits out there, selling 1/2 my INFA position @37.23, more than covers the CLF disaster, now it's free to get scooped up at around 43.50

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  21. Sold another 20% of REDF at $4.75

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  22. i wonder if his daughter's soccern coach begins the day good morning "boys"

    (Not a problem markie, just yanking yo chain)

    v b

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  23. 2nd - i started doing the math and realized i could sell all of my holdings right now, cash in all of my accounts and buy a business that would generate enough annual income to pay me a salary 25% higher than what i'm currently making...kinda stupid to let those gains go away.

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  24. Sold another 20% at $4.7

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  25. Cashed more in at $4.7. Now only hold 25% of remaining position in REDF.

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  26. 2nd- It's not too late to get an 'E' ticket on the rocket ship SWN :)....

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  27. TOF- You should be damn proud of that trade. Might be a once in a life time deal.

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  28. mark - i've had a ton of these potential once in a lifetime trades that i ended up selling too early or it got bought out. not sure if you know/remember this, but MySpace.com used to be owned by a company called Intermix back in 2005. I bought the stock at $5 and change and put all of my money into it...about $30k or so at that time. The stock went to $12 and got bought out. I was so pissed they sold because I knew how much traffic they were getting to their site and that it could have been worth $50/share. A year later I heard some company did an assessment of the value of the company and it was 8 times higher than what they sold out at. This same thing could happen with REDF...I could wake up tomorrow and see that they signed a search deal with Google and the stock could be at $8 and just scream higher to $12-15.

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  29. "...20 to 25% flat tax with a 10,000 per person exemption, and NO other deductions at all."

    Bob, I was talking about stimulating the economy, not killing it.

    For one thing, your plan would represent an enormous tax increase on the great unwashed. For a single mother with 6 kids, her 20k in income from Wal-Mart, under your 25 percent plan with a 10k exemption would result in a tax bill of $2500, far in excess of what she pays at present.

    Also, for the 600k a year man, the "working rich", your idea would result in a total tax bill of 147k, a significant reduction from current obligations.

    So Bob, you're my buddy and everything, and I respect your ideas intellectually, but you are advocating for a position which is at quite a divergence from my own, which involved, if you recall, trying to stimulate the consumer economy while inducing those with vast wealth to return some of the chips when the game, for them, is over, so that we might avoid creating the type of intergenerational dynastic wealth that made living in England such a drag for "our" forebears during the 18th century:)

    Hey how's your trading going? Remember me touting EXK before my vacation, mid August say?

    Damn did that one work out. Well of course it did, I was unable to enter the stock properly, so it was free and unencumbered to advance:)

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  30. This isn't a particularly compelling argument, but in addition to the above, there are, as best as I coulod just determine, about 1.2 million paid tax preparers in the U.S.

    We need to throw those people out of work and onto unemployment comp right now too?

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  31. OK, how's this???

    GL PLAYERS!!!!..at the close!

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  32. playing TZA for dead cat bounces. 3 tries so far, ran out of margin in one acct on 1st, lost 225 on it, made 900+ on the 2nd, and made 325 on the 3rd. I think that was my 1st losing trade in about 2 weeks. It gets scary when I bottom fish and run out of margin.

    All accounts at all time records, and up about $1000 for the day... Whew!

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  33. Shark, a $3000 prebate is a $3000 CREDIT that would cover $9000 or $10000 of income, so if its a family of 4, you are looking at no tax if spending is below $36000.

    Its an attempt to ENCOURAGE savings and investment, and once and for all KILL the borrow and overspend mentality, both on a personal and governmental level.

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  34. Your $147k for a $600k income doesn't jive with Warren's overall 15% tax rate. 15% is the net tax rate the billionaires are ACTUALLY PAYING. Not the 33 or 36% advertised rate. That is the problem.

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  35. Shark, if comparing the flat tax thing, 5 kids would give her 6 x 10,000 = 60,000 in exemptions

    not sure where you got your $2500 in tax for her 20k income in your example. i certainly don't see here paying anything, and i would imagine she gets a low income credit like currently

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  36. btw, the basic idea with the exemption amount was that the exemption should be at top of whats considered "poverty level" on a per person basis, so that anyone living in poverty isn't paying anything, and those above it are only paying the flat tax on the amount they make above poverty level. the $10,000 number was arbitrary, only because I don't know what the actual poverty level is supposed to be.

    I do have a problem with people not living and working here full time collecting anything, BTW. I know someone who lived here a couple years ago that comes back to visit a few weeks here and there, and she got a $6600 tax rebate for last year because she reported low income, pretending she had worked cleaning houses when she visited. It paid for a great Las Vegas vacation for her and her family including the airfare from Poland, and of course that time here gives her a way to file next year and get another $6600.

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  37. There should be no taxes, government should just print what they need for their spending programs.

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  38. "It paid for a great Las Vegas vacation for her and her family including the airfare from Poland, and of course that time here gives her a way to file next year and get another $6600. "

    Other than foreign labor, how else are we supposed to get our crops harvested and our homes cleaned?

    Sanity now!

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  39. already regretting my decision to sell 75% of my position in REDF...argh!

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  40. I agree Chicken.

    If one is paying taxes, one is paying to kill and torture Afghan women, children and many innocent men, among many others.

    So if you think about it, to refuse to pay taxes based not on some cooked-up constitutional basis but simply on moral grounds along the lines of an H.D. Thorough, that would be an innovative act of moral rightousness.



    Bob I'm sorry I didn't understand some of the terms you were using and some of the proposals you suggested, which make more sense now that you've further explained them.

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  41. BTW Guys, as stock idea....

    I'm not saying buy this right here and now, I would watch it more and see what happens, but I have been watching ANO with a lot of interest lately. yesterday was the scary screwdoodle, today it is engulfing and depending on the close and future events, ANO may, and I repeat MAY be getting ready to take off.

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  42. CYB - Shorts have egg-roll on their face.
    JJG - It's been an impressive rally so far, hasn't it?

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  43. BTW - Can't get a quote on this ticker symbol...??? Sounds like an acronym for "by the way", as in "BTW Guys"...

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  44. ALTI - shark...my contribution to the speculative pot...

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  45. I really think this current rally will catch traders off guard...

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  46. TAXES - If they taxed U$D (by printing), I'd call that a flat tax. Not just for American citizens (why should only American citizens completely shoulder the burden of what should be a world tax, anyway?), but for anyone who is long U$D.

    You want US military keeping world peace? You buy U$D and pay the tax.

    Modify the charter of the IRS' taxation department, put currency policy under direct government control, not that of a private banking cartel.

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  47. Amazing REDF trade, TOF! Congratulations!

    What kind of business could you buy to give you such an income?

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  48. Nice and clean gap up today in the market. None of the sell short stop orders I placed yesterday below the market level (on XLF and FCX) were triggered, and instead my buy-to-cover stop order on SPY was triggered nice and early at $113 (for the 100 short shares I received over the weekend when one of my SPY puts was exercised). Also, my buy stop order on 500 shares of WATG was triggered at $9.45 -- that's a long-term position.

    The nice gap up today offers new clean levels for moving up my sell short stop limit orders, which I just did: to $14.60/$14.55 on XLF and to $82/$81.90 on FCX. If the market is destined to sell off, then a very reasonable way to do it would be first to run the market to 1150, get all the skeptics on board, and then bring EVERYONE down. So I want to have those sell short stop orders nearby.

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  49. Path Of Thorns newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4593 comments) on Mon, 09/20/2010 - 12:56 #69578
    http://tinyurl.com/2csmpzj

    There's no more coming back this way
    The path is overgrown and strewn with thorns
    They've torn the life-blood from your naked eyes
    Cast aside to be forlorn

    Market movements will drag traders through the path that least inspires them. Stumble. Tumble. Fumble.

    (a) We may transition quickly from 'overbought' to 'Man the rally's taking off without me.'

    (b) If we are in fact in the beginning stages of an upside breakout, then a gap up (in this case, shortly after the open) occuring while most investors are unable to act (in this case, at work or commuting to work) would be a signature market move.

    (c) In fact, this rally may catch us all off guard- it may run quickly to 1200 before we have time to come up with any reasons for it.

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  50. I agree with you, 2nd_ave. That's why placing a sell short stop order just below today's low is a reasonable thing to do -- today's lows should not be violated if the current move is a TRUE breakout (in which case the market would just keep powering higher, leaving most of the people behind in a disbelief, just like it did in July 2009).

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  51. Re: Path Of Thorns
    Submitted by davefairtex (2223 comments) on Mon, 09/20/2010 - 13:00 #69580 (in reply to #69578)
    Uh, 2nd_ave, I'd say the "signature move" of the market is a gap up overnight in asia by 20 points, vaulting us through resistance tripping stops at market open. Allowing folks on the bus is most unusual.

    Ah but markets bearing gifts should not be ignored. How risky can things be for SPY at daily RSI = 80?

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  52. Re: Path Of Thorns
    Submitted by 2nd_ave (4595 comments) on Mon, 09/20/2010 - 13:04 #69582 (in reply to #69580)
    I don't think the market allowed many on the breakout bus this morning. How many traders were watching prices or had the time/means to act at 10 am EST?

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  53. Re: Path Of Thorns
    Submitted by davefairtex (2223 comments) on Mon, 09/20/2010 - 13:04 #69583 (in reply to #69582)
    How many traders were watching the market during the very middle of "amateur hour"? My guess is, all the amateurs. :)

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  54. Re: Path Of Thorns newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4595 comments) on Mon, 09/20/2010 - 13:06 #69585 (in reply to #69583)
    Fair enough. How many of them would have bought the spike?

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  55. ok...i sold the rest of my REDF at $4.70. I'm not completely in cash with regards to REDF.

    by the way, i really like reading Jeffrey Saut's weekly missives. this week he was talking about coal (well, he's talked a lot about it). one stock that i can't ignore is ADES, which i have been following for a few years. the thing just looks like a great call option on clean coal. in case you didn't know ACI recently licensed their clean coal technology. should they use it on all of their coal, this could be a massive deal for such a tiny company...after all, ADES has only a $38 Million market cap. problem is the stock is massively illiquid and it is not yet profitable. on the positive side, they will have $2/share in cash and no debt after they get the settlement on a suit they had with Calgon Carbon.

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  56. sorry...meant to say "I'm now completely in cash with regards to REDF"

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  57. Nice to see SWN up today, shaking off the large drop in NG. I just bought 100 shares of SWN at $31.76.

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  58. Re: Path Of Thorns
    Submitted by davefairtex (2224 comments) on Mon, 09/20/2010 - 13:23 #69589 (in reply to #69585)
    How many amateurs bought this breakout? I have no idea, and with no evidence, I'm not about to speculate. I think you're hoping "all of them." :)

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  59. Re: Path Of Thorns newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4596 comments) on Mon, 09/20/2010 - 13:25 #69591 (in reply to #69589)
    No, I'm hoping 'none.' I think there's widespread distrust of this rally-but that's why I think it continues.

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  60. GMO getting ready to take off?

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  61. No one ----ing believes in this rally! Beautiful!

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  62. That's OK, man. When they start believing in it at 1200/12000, they can have my shares.

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  63. JB- I saw your post about BTIM. Interesting chart, sector. What's the play?

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  64. CRYP- If it's real, there's a 200K share bid @ 1.40.

    HERO- I can't find anything for that spike.

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  65. UNG - some turn

    shark - look at BRKS...any opinion

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  66. ODP,SPLS - Cramer commented that if small business felt better, then these would turn. I'm in ODP.

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  67. Hey Kyle - I actually just bought ODP today at $4.3...good to know the king pumper is pumping it.

    side note: REDF is absorbing selling very nicely. I think it goes higher, unfortunately.

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  68. sorry...looks like i bought ODP at 4.35. i just added more at $4.45.

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  69. tof - REDF is looking good..nice pick man...

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  70. BRKS not really speaking to me.

    I did just buy some GMO at three and a quarter and I'm pretty sure I will live to regret it:)

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  71. Now that HNUZF is tracking November NG futures, the contango is not going to be that large anymore, and so it is hard to believe that one could not make profit buying HNUZF at the current level. So I have just reloaded at $3.89 the 500 shares I sold on Thursday at $4.40. Will buy 500 more shares if UNG drops to $6.20 and 500 more shares if UNG drops to $6.

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  72. TGB - some work from the 4.25 lvl

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  73. OK, I'll play along. ODP @ 4.44.

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  74. The 2 distinct phases of American history:

    Before the internet, when the only public records kept and paid attention to involved, generally famous people and the facts and foibles of ordinary citizens went largely unrecorded and absolutely unreported and

    After the internet, when every speeding ticket, every blemish removed by every dermetologist, the Facebook rantings of all your ex-girlfriends, and God-knows everything else every nobody in every tiny town does is foddder for the business vultures who pick at your dying bones, the potential employers who seek to discriminate (against you), and the media:)

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  75. 2 more in the kitty;

    PWR @ 18.70
    HEK @ 3.75

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  76. GMO - Coulda bought some this morning at the bottom trend line. It'll keep moving upward as long as market does, watch out for anticipated positive news!

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  77. This second intraday leg up in S&P is the short covering by those who couldn't act during the morning jump. After today, when those remaining shorts get covered, the risk of staying long will increase significantly.

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  78. Mark - ODP looks like a pretty solid turnaround potential. i have a tiny position in it but shit this thing could easily double given how many stores and how much operating leverage they have. they had peak earnings of $1.8/share pre-recession. if they can get their act together, revamp stores and close down the big money losing stores, they could probably get up to half of that. $0.90 x 15 = $14.50.

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  79. 1145 gonna happen today? Shorts, step aside!

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  80. TOF- Thanks for the over view. Unlike PIR, I actually like/shop @ ODP.

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  81. Mark - I don't like shopping at TIF but I know it's a pretty good company. Well, at least good at breaking the hearts of many men's wallets. Give PIR a chance!

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  82. Let's see if any imbalances pop up today. Been very few the last week or so.

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  83. That CRYP bid is at the plate...

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  84. Since the market made such a clean move up today, then a short entry just below today's lows would be an easy trade to make, since there would be clear exit strategy -- cover if the market rises just above the level where it paused today mid day. So I am doubling my sell short stop limit order on FCX to 200 shares at $82/$81.90, with the exit at $83 if FCX starts heading higher again. A maximum loss of $200 on this trade would be easy to tolerate.

    I also like the intraday pattern for XLF today, since a short entry at $14.75, just below today's intraday oscillation range, looks very inviting, with the exit strategy of covering at $14.80, the upper part of the range. So, in addition to keeping a sell short stop limit order at $14.60/$14.55 for 1000 shares, I have also placed another sell short stop limit order for 500 shares at $14.75/$14.74. This second order is only 1/2 the size of the first one because the price is close to the closing price and I don't want to get faked out on a larger order tomorrow morning, while I am still sleeping.

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  85. For a change, it feels nice not to lose money while the market is moving up and instead just wait for it with sell short stop orders on the way down. Why didn't I use this strategy before and instead was stubbornly adding to my shorts on the way up??? I guess I didn't have enough faith in my trading skills, in the ability to enter and exit stocks at desired prices. The day trading practice that I had engaged into over the past 6 months made a shift in my attitudes toward the market. Now, hopefully, my losses will be limited to small amounts when I'll be getting stopped out of my trades, as opposed to huge drawdowns I had before when I would bet against a rally that just kept going up.

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  86. Crap, I'd better sell right now!

    "Bob Prechter: Dow may plummet to 2,000"

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  87. I have a feeling that after today's short covering in the second half of the day, another green close tomorrow is not very likely. So I just bought 300 shares of SKF at $18.91.

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  88. Gee, ya think Prechter is SHORT?

    LOL, that guy is so predictably wrong...

    I'm real happy with my day. I was completely wrong about which way things would go, and still made $1000, with 2/3 of trades being winners. What made them winners was that I took small profits instead of trying to swing for fences.

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  89. I am not sure whether it is worth placing stops on my SKF purchase, since we are bound to have a lot of volatility tomorrow after the Fed announcement. Maybe I should just wait until the end of the day tomorrow and then close this position, regardless of the outcome...

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  90. David - you might do better with SKF just putting a certain target price to sell at because I agree it will most likely be quite volatile. I suspect we will see some downward action and then another late day rally to close out the day in the green. The market, in case people didn't notice, is underowned and unloved and therefore undervalued.

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  91. GRMN - Showed some strength again today.

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  92. cb- You were one lucky SOB, playing TZA today...

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  93. Silver seems to have stalled, doesn't it?

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