David- It's traders placing new bets on SKF who will drive this market higher, IMO. Be careful.
Hey Mark - I think we should look at RAS again...I'm probably gonna spend a few hours over the next few days looking into it a little more before buying (if i do). The multifamily property markets are doing really well right now because the rental markets are doing well. I think we might have just been early on that one. If the markets continue to march up over the next several months, which I think is definitely possible, then the REITs like RAS should be the last ones to finally rebound from the 08 crash and they have a ton of room to the upside if they do rebound. I think a list of the stocks that performed the best from January to May and then the worst from May til now are the ones that will bounce back quickly. I'd probably through companies like LPX in that mix...
http://rsi-trader.blogspot.com/The higher we go the longer the overbought list gets, the higher the odds of a selloff coming. But the overbought list isn't nearly as long as it was in mid/late April.
redf = amazing...what the hell is it though?
TOF- RAS...I tried to get in at the EOD but couldn't find the right spot. A few financial REIT's were upgraded this morning and IYR might break out here. Let me know what you find out, but 1.40 held pretty well except for 2 little spikes through it.
I'm now only about 15% long and the rest is in cash after having sold my SPY/MDY/STT/REDF positions over the past day. I'm now holding C, ODP, eBay and just doing a lot of research right now. This month has been tremendous for me and I need to just tone down my excitement. Usually when I see gains like this it's right before big losses. I'm planning on holding off on trading over the next few days just to regroup and not get overexcited. So good luck to you all over the next few days on your trades.
Mark - technically RAS looks like its basing here...in fact, it kinda looks like an inverted H&S. I don't really follow technicals that much but it wouldn't be a terrible spot to buy assuming it doesn't go under. Here's a new article on Seeking Alpha about it...there's not a whole lot to it but this guy apparently thought back in April that it would be a $10 stock within a year.http://seekingalpha.com/article/220654-what-caused-rait-financial-trust-s-stock-to-drop
Fed at 2:15 est, which might end the "overbought" situation.Timing is everything, and everything bounces at least a little bit if you catch it just right.That said, I do actually wish that instead of playing bounces of dead cats, that I could see which way things are really going, and play that way for more reliable, longer and greater profits. But given that I seem to make money, its sad that I don't actually understand why what I do works.
TOF- Good idea. Same thing seems to happen to me with big/fast profits. Good job.
Thanks Mark! I know when I start looking at my gains and saying, "well if I just get my account to make another gain like this over the next X months then I can quit my job and buy a business"...then it's usually time to sell and just settle down for a little while.
After reflecting on it a bit, I think I'll just continue what's been working and take what it gives me, until it doesn't work anymore.To be honest, this is my 2nd worst year so far. I'm only up about 20% overall, and have to get to 24% just to make it my 3rd worst year. To get to the 300+% level, I'd need to not take small profits, and then being wrong would be very expensive.
Thank you, TOF, for the suggestion of placing a sell limit order on SKF. I have just placed such a sell limit order on my 300 shares of SKF at $19.35, just above the level at which it had stalled today for some time, which I think would be the target for any retracement.I also decided to cancel my sell short stop order on 500 shares of XLF at $14.75, so as not to get faked out tomorrow. Now, if XLF drops briefly to $14.75 tomorrow morning, then instead of triggering my sell short stop order, it will now trigger a sell limit order on my SKF -- a much nicer outcome. :)
See, that's my problem in a nut shell. I can't even get return goals correct like Bob :) I always shoot for 100%, not 300%/year.
At one point in that 310% year, I was down $300,000 or $400,000, and was basically maxxed out in only one stock (using margin), even after selling my BMW M Roadster to raise funds, and taking margin calls while on vacation in the great white north.It was a very stressful, and profitable year, but I see now that it could just as easily have been a disaster like 08 turned out to be.
Not that I know anything, but...I looked at the CRB index chart, and went back to where it peaked, and then looked at the Fed minutes for the meeting near the peak, and found that they mentioned commodity price rises. Commodity prices crashed after that meeting. I will be looking for that again, either this meeting or next. Supposedly they took no action to cause the crash, yet there it was.
Commentary for the day. You know by the time I get his stuff its at least a couple of days old.Credit Suisse (CS) lowered their Natty outlook for Cal 2011 from $6.00 to $5.25. The Cal 2011 strip is currently $4.51. Per CS "Near-term gasmarkets are likely to remain weak on persistently high supply brought on by:1) A record high horizontal rig count (up 60% in 2010) which addssupply at 3x+ the rate of traditional vertical drilling,2) continued investment beyond internally generated cash flow (166%reinvestment rate in 2010 for gas producers) helped by hospitableequity and high yield markets and cash infusions from JVs withlarge international companies, and3) aggressive lease capture strategies which is forcing low rate ofreturn drilling (‘use it or lose it’)."
Opps, posted the above too quick. So that ties in well with Deutshce Bank's presentation last week.And Tudor Pickering is forecasting a $4.50 natty price for Q4 and $70.00 oil but they also admit that they would lean a little lower on natty and a little higher on crude.
port- I just e-mailed you the report.For everyone else MOG has natty @ 5.50-6.00 for 2011.
Good call for you guys on SWN. I'm surprised it rallied with natty off so hard on the whole strip. MarkW, you might ask your buddy about FST. CS updated it last week due mostly to its presence in the Granite Wash. CS believes that Granite Wash is "the most economic play out there." I show that it closed at $29.76 today and CS has a target price of $39.00.
Thx MarkW, just got it.
port- When David and I were talking...OK, mostly eating and drinking, natty bottomed last year in Nov. I commented that if the market is a discounting/forward looking mechanism, looking back to last year, SWN bottomed in Sept @ 35.00 and rallied to 50 in mid. Oct.
We wouldn't have such a volatility in NG unless there would be some very good reasons for it to average $5.50-$6 in 2011, and also some very good reasons for it to average $4. :)
FWIW....It looks like traders think MMR got the better end of the deal with PXP. I'll keep a close eye on PXP for re-enrtry once the dust settles. MMR's price action today implies traders feel the future of deep water drilling in the gulf is not dead.
David...YES!!! That's why we trade it :) Really good to see you Sat. I enjoyed the time.
I am placing a sell limit order at $4.39 for 500 shares of HNUZF I picked up today at $3.89, so as to have a small but decent $250 profit.
Thanks, Mark -- it was good to chat & drink with you as well!
Landry-Random Thoughts:WOW. The market broke out nicely on Monday.This is the expansion in volatility that we have been looking for.Don't get too excited just yet though. Follow through will be key. If the market can stay outside of its recent recent range then we should see a plethora of setups on the next pullback. If it comes right back in then all bets are off. See recent newsletters for more on the "fake out" scenario.Futures are flat to firm pre-market.
Decreasing Exposure newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4600 comments) on Tue, 09/21/2010 - 09:35 #69663 BAC/WFC/XLF/XLE off @ 13.92/26.60/14.91/54.90...
So who's getting hung out to dry today?
Can you guys imagine what's going to happen to the price of C on the day the Treasury announces it's sold all of it's shares???
JB- WTFU...I asked you yesterday what the play was on BTIM.
Wonder why the Tranies are out preforming so much today?
C - I wouldn't be surprised to see pps jump dramatically on an announcement like that.
hey bro, busy yesterday at work and shifting the portfolio around.BTIM: love it right at it's pivot, 4.84. they have products/technologies which enhance low temp surgeries, a lot of recent findings about benefits of near hypothermia, Dutch loves them as a long term buy, I think they can make it on their own but suspect they'll get taken out in the next 6months
What happens today when FED announces MBS buying? Or will they simply repeat verbage from previous meeting?
Played TZA from 27.04 to 27.18 for $620 profit
funny you ask bro, dogi girl just noticed the same thing, been digging around but i can't find any news which backs up the action
CP - imo, if they do announce more mbs buying the market goes up (liquidity) if they don't announce a big program the market goes up (fed thinks the econ is getting back on it's feet).all that said, no trading more me today other than adding a couple of individual stocks to the long portfolio
oops, only got 27.16. The $620 number was correct, though. Looks like I left money on the table again, though.
Played TZA again from 27.06 for another $240 profit, now up $860 for the day...
Trimming Further newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4601 comments) on Tue, 09/21/2010 - 10:41 #69673 INTC off @ 19.06, SMH off @ 26.72...
Thanks bro....I'll see if I can find a good spot later toady.
Okay, I wonder what the hypocritical gold bugs claiming the FED should step aside and do nothing will do if the FED gives them their wish?Will they go to cash, long equities, or will they do nothing and keep their gold?
HERO might be interesting if it can hold the topside off the 100.
GL Mark, it's a thinly traded sucker, only been able to grab 100 shares at a time as I build my position.Look at TRE again on weakness and IFF above S1 @48.33 (p-48.63)logging into an Infinity Futures webinar at 8, s/b interesting
Guys,Let's call a spade a spade....The economy out of recession for a year already? Whatareyakiddingme? Throw that stat out the window, it's PATENTLY BULLSHIT.Where are we headed? Basically, although the market is looking to potentially rise above the opening range of the year (established during the first 2 weeks of january), we are also DOUBLE DIPPING BIG TIME in the actual economy. I think we await the results of the midterms. If dems win stocks probably rise on the whole bailout mentality. If the repubs win, particularly if they are predominantly the "tea partiers" carrying the heavy water for those KRugman calls the "Angry Rich" in his brilliant nytimes op-ed today, well then, the dollar will rise, the market and commodities will fall and tighten your chinstraps for some good old-fashioned starvation, which if these guys get their way, will make the lassaiz-faire starvation ticket the English bought for the Irish mid 19th century look like a banquet in their honor:)These rich people are MAD AS HELL about the prosepect of paying marinally higher taxes.
Played TZA one more time, from 27.09 to 27.15, now up $1020 for the day.
Go long ESLR right now .63
Well, I can tell you that I am making no effort to try to make big bucks in the market or restart my business. Taking minimal risk and just scraping up loose change here and there. There is no point taking risk or working hard when you know these assholes will take it all away and waste it anyway, so fuck them. Let them find someone else willing to work just so THEY can steal the money.
Sold TZA too early again, oh well...
FYI, I read yesterday that China is upping its minimum wage by 20% PER YEAR for the NEXT FIVE YEARS. Gonna go buy some shoes. I need some anyway, and they certainly won't be getting any cheaper since they are all made in China that I saw.
"There is no point taking risk or working hard when you know these assholes will take it all away and waste it anyway"And that's the root of our problems today. Big government sucking us dry, on a reckless spending spree with no regard for the future as if they hit the lottery.I want a refund!
We need higher priced Chinese goods, that's a step in the right direction.
What was your business Bob?Think about going long eslr guys.....
I ran a computer consulting and contract programming business that basically would take care of all IT functions for smaller clients or do project work for larger ones.Most clients were manufacturers, and of that, most were automotive related, and by the time I shut it down, those customers left were all in dire straits in business terms, and in terms of their ability to pay even my small invoices. Add to that competition from India willing to program for $6 per hour, and I decided it was best just to find something else to do. I wasn't going to put any money into it, when things looked that bleak, and it turned out that I made the correct decision, IMO.Its not that *I* couldn't go start another business or get a job, its just that I do a lot better here, even if I just average $500 a day (which I'm exceeding easily).
CSCO- off @ 21.53 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4602 comments) on Tue, 09/21/2010 - 11:25 #69688 At this point, I've cut exposure by 50%...
re: TZA, I guess I shoud count my blessings having made over $1000 this am, and not worry about missing the last 2 trades.
"Obama Should Have Focused on Jobs, Not Health Care, Says Arianna Huffington"I believe WDC has demonstrated a complete lack of understanding of how badly and rapidly the economy has deteriorated on numerous occasions.It's not just Obama, but he's become a big part of it.
Banks are looking strong today. 2nd - this could be playing into your thesis that the rotation into techs/financials will keep powering the S&P forward.
the market tipping it's hand?can't even wait for the FED to sell off:)
Since my yesterday's SKF purchase is green but my sell limit has not been hit yet, I decided to change that sell limit order into a sell stop order at my entry price $18.90. In this way, I am guaranteed not to lose anything on this trade, but may make some decent money if the market sells off sharp following the Fed announcement.
David - I suspect you will almost definitely sell at that stop order price because of the volatility that surrounds fed announcements. i would suggest setting a price that you can profit from because the swings should include a swing lower at some point, enabling you to exit at a profit.
Nice to see UNG up today. Yesterday's sharp sell-off might have been just a shake out of weak hands that boarded the UNG rally over the past week, when UNG just kept rising and rising. I looked at the 3-month chart of the NG futures yesterday and saw that the November futures closed exactly at the same lowest level they touched a month earlier, but Dec-Feb futures closed BELOW their previous support level. So many traders were probably stopped out of the Dec-Feb futures yesterday, and there are fewer long positions now that before. Since the futures didn't continue collapsing after the support was violated, I think there is a good chance we get a real rally now (if the storage injections for the next few weeks won't be horribly large :)).
You are probably right, TOF -- setting a sell limit order on my SKF will definitely increase the probability of exiting with a small gain. However, my position is small enough that I can afford to forego this small gain and see, just for fun, if I can get a larger gain (fully understanding that the probability of getting that larger gain is significantly smaller). If I had purchased 3000 shares of SKF yesterday at $18.91 instead of 300, I would be out of it already at $19.10...
As it is, have I just lowered my sell stop order to $18.80, to the lower boundary of today's morning volatility for SKF (so as to minimize the chance of being faked out), and will now see what happens.
Good luck David!
All right, after a little more deliberation, I succumbed to TOF's wisdom and did change my sell stop order on SKF to a sell limit order at $19.50, so as to get a $200 profit, which is an OK profit for a short trade.
Putting in a FMOC spike bid for PXP @ 25.40. I want to be in this Co.
I have just noticed that my sell short stop order for 200 shares of FCX was triggered at $82 this morning, and according to my plan I placed a buy to cover stop at $83.
Beautiful action on the live charts for SKF: a spike down below all recent support levels, a spike up to a new high, return to the middle -- just beautiful. :) Everyone is really tense now because the market is at a critical junction, and so the volatility should be amazing...
PXP @ 25.62.
Man, I *almost* got stopped out of my FCX short at $83 -- I am canceling my stop and will wait until 12:30, when the trend is established, to make a decision about that position.
Let's assume that the first reaction to the Fed is a fake. With this assumption, I have just set a sell short stop order on 200 more shares of FCX at $82.50, just below the zone in which it has stalled now.
They saw my stop, they triggered it right away. Now I set a buy to cover stop at $82.75 -- let's see if it will take them more than 1 minute to trigger it as well...
Nope, it didn't. 30 seconds, and I am down $50. :) A quick casino...
Let's try again. :) A sell stop order at $82.45 for 200 shares.
Let's make it $82.40...
not really sure why but i decided to buy a tiny trading position in REDF at $4.42.
Added a little more REDF at $4.47. Position is 1/50th of what it was yesterday.
OK, stopped out of my FCX short at $83 -- down $200... I heard that only fools try to trade the Fed announcement -- now I know why...
OK, I have just re-opened my FCX short for 200 shares at $83.35, just to hedge my AA position, which is still in the red. FCX has outperformed AA greatly over the past few months, and so it is time for AA to catch up.
Sold short 200 more shares of FCX at 83.
Adding to PXP @ 25.56...2/3 position.
Adding to PXP @ 25.48....Full position.
The rest of the day will probably be a slide down -- there is no more momentum for going up... I am placing a buy to cover limit order on FCX at $82.50 for the 200 shares I shorted at $83, and keeping 200 more shares I re-shorted at $83.35 without an exit strategy (for now).
Copper price was rejected from the $3.50 resistance level, so some FCX short position is definitely warranted now.
Bought some UCO for long term in my retirement account. It was looking cheap when you consider its priced in US dollars
Bob- MOG has crude @ 100 by Feb. ish.Obviously I agree as PXP is now more of an oily play.
Yeah, if driving season here doesn't move it, China and India consumption will, I think.
a) China and Indiab) Driving seasonc) All of the above
Financials taking a nose dive...My positions holding up well so far.
XCO breaking out above R2...All of the energy guys I follow are buying this dip big time.
Just checked and saw that my buy limit order at $82.50 for 200 shares of FCX was hit. I am now down to 200 shares that I shorted this morning at $82, and after all the day trading I raised the cost basis for this short position to $82.25.
My SKF entry from yesterday is nicely green, though. If I would not have listened to TOF's wisdom this morning, I would have been stopped out at $18.80 today. Thank you, TOF, for your suggestion!
Exiting on final hour weakness newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4604 comments) on Tue, 09/21/2010 - 15:44 #69738 Not to the mention the strength in bonds.The long-awaited pullback will eventually arrive, and I would prefer to wait it out with no skin in the game.Back to 100% cash at the close. (Closing out OAKBX end-of-day.)
I see no reason for FCX to be up so high now, when the whole market is down and the copper price is down as well. I have just shorted 200 more shares at $82.95.
Big day for FTWR.
On a second thought, I figured that 400 short shares of FCX is too large of a position for me in the light of my recent decision to preserve my recent portfolio gains and not take any "stubborn" open-ended positions. So I covered my short at $83.10 and instead purchased 2 November $75 puts on FCX at $2.50 each, for a maximum loss of $500 on these puts. Placed a sell limit order on them at $5, so as to double my money.
Good day here. Only C hurt me a little. +.56% overall.At the bar!!!!
I meant to say that I covered the extra 200 shares I shorted a few minutes before -- I still have 200 shares as a long-term hedge on my portfolio with the cost basis of $82.15.
I guess folks were looking for something a little more definitive from uncle Ben?
Given today's strength in bonds, the breakout in S&P above 1130 might have been a fake. So I am changing my sell limit order at $19.50 for 300 shares of SKF to a sell stop limit at $18.70/$18.65, just below today's low. Maybe I caught the top of this XLF bounce with my SKF purchase, in which case I want to let my SKF run.
Plains Exploration & Production Company (PXP) has been targeted by call players today, with 30,000 of these bullishly oriented options changing hands so far -- ten times the oil issue's expected single-session call volume of around 3,000 contracts.The October 29 call has been at the center of today's activity, with 7,773 contracts changing hands on this strike -- the bulk of which traded at the ask price, indicating they were likely purchased. With today's volume more than doubling open interest at this strike, it seems that at least a portion of these calls are fresh positions. By buying to open the October 29 call, traders are expecting PXP to muscle above the $29 level over the next four weeks.Technically speaking, PXP has been trending steadily upward for the past several weeks, from its July low around $20, to its current perch at $25.54. However, PXP still has some heavy lifting to do in order to satisfy today's call players, as the stock has not surmounted the $29 level since April.Meanwhile, the shorts have definitely taken note of PXP's positive price action of late, with short interest falling by 10.7% in the past month -- 8.5% during the most recent reporting period alone. Despite this steady decrease, short interest still accounts for a significant 6.3% of PXP's available float. A continued unwinding of these bearish bets could help PXP continue its uptrend.
I didn't see this this morning....RBC Capital raises PT for PXP from $41-$44...Outperform.
Lawrence Summers relinquishes his post...That's the third member of the WH economic advisory committee to resign in so many months, I don't consider this a step in the right direction.