Why fight the Fed?
To the extent market direction can be orchestrated, the set-up for continuation of the rally was yesterday's sell-off, which shook out weak hands and worked off a little bullish sentiment. At 830 am/10 am est today, manufactured Durable Goods/New Home Sales reports will jack the indexes higher, and fund managers will bid all positions to quarter-end finishes.
Landry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
I came into today thinking that I'd give my "ya see, don't buy breakouts speech" but based on the futures action, it looks like the market is going to turn right back up.
One day's not going to change my approach though. As usual, wait for follow through before getting too excited.
If this is the real deal, we'll have plenty enough time to buy some stocks along the way.
Futures are melting up.
Day ain't over yet though:
For the aggressive, keep an eye out for an opening gap reversal (OGRe). If you don't know what that is, don't try it at home. Get educated first. See my website for articles on gaps.
2nd - your intc is getting bid up in pre-market. this plays into your theme earlier this week of sector rotation keeping this market going.
ReplyDeletei refuse to short anything in this market. i still think we're going higher but i'm just gonna pick my spots. durable goods meant nothing to the market. it was all about german business sentiment. crazy huh? that has to tell you that the valuation of the market is more than reasonable.
It's not really 'my' INTC, as I sold it all around 18.98.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, I loaded up pre-market (financials, semis) well before Durable Goods, and now sitting on decent paper profits already...
I sold REE pr-market for what seemed like an enormous profit.
ReplyDeleteI would not be buying into this market...I might not sell either but buying now is asking for it.
I was talking to a friend that is a partner in a headhunting firm here in San Diego and he said the jobs market is "on fire". This is the first time I have heard him say anything positive about the jobs market out here in 3 years.
ReplyDeletewhat's weird is, REE and MCP are going in opposite directions
ReplyDeleteI left a fortune on the table obviously. It's very very bittersweet. Then again, it's very hard holding stocks that are ripping when youve been conditioned byt this cockamamie market to take profits.
Is it bad that I'm rooting for REDF to crash?
ReplyDeleteI definitely left a brand new Kawasaki on the table and of course it's really hard to re-buy now that it's silly time.
ReplyDeleteIt's the public participation phase of the rally.
eBay looks like its going to close that gap from April
ReplyDeleteFD:
Long stock at $23.55 and $23 Oct call options at $1.3 average.
I freaking sold early and it's like a kick to the balls isnt it?
ReplyDeleteI'm rooting for REDF to crash also. Team does your friend specialize in skilled workers or tech or something, cause that would make sense?
let me say this tough...trading in REE the past 2 days really reminds me of the boontimes when I first got into this bz and really was fucking clueless as to what to do. At least I recognized the oppty, got in, held overnight and faggotized myself at the pre-market. However, I have learned maybe.
ReplyDeleteSee once when I was getting started I took a thousand shares of AUY overnight, sold it at 8 am sharp, Made like 500 bucks, the price COLLAPSED down to my buy level and I re-loaded. Of course that was my intention in REE today but it didn't come to pass:)
Yet anyway.
Shark - they focus on financial services (tax, accounting, financial analysts for manufacturing companies, etc).
ReplyDeleteYeah that makes sense somewhat.
ReplyDeleteI always marvel at some aspects of our lives....
and remember fondly the days when youd show up at a recruiter and say "get me a freaking job doing something" and they would figure it out for you:)
I also find it really weird that the baseball players union is basically the only effective union. Are any of you labor experts willing to inform us as to how it came to be that unions were able to do their best work on behalf of labor when it came to highly specialized workers?
Is the AMA a de-facto doctor's union?
Why don't NFL players get guaranteed contracts, and even more to the point, why do both ownership and players agents conform to the canard surrounding the money descriptions of the out-years of nfl contracts when everyone knows goddamn well that player "X" won't be around for years 5 and 6 of the "contract", which obligates the player, but not the team? What the hell is that?
REE - I'm with you there. Did the same thing. COCO as well. I like this REE...nice sharp pullbacks
ReplyDeleteSPY is right at R2, where it reversed yesterday.
ReplyDeleteI'm having ANOTHER of those day's that scare me. Up much more than the market. At least both are strong.
ReplyDeleteSPY punched through R2 and at a new intra day high. Might be different this time?
ReplyDeleteLast high in SPY was 114.86. I would almost think it has to break that today if it's going to.
ReplyDeleteBlogging can be a tough business.
ReplyDeleteTK's last post title...."There goes your ride, bulls"
selling out the last of INFA, will it may still get taken out I want to book all my profit now
ReplyDeleteNo choice but to chase...if you're a fund manager newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4630 comments) on Fri, 09/24/2010 - 10:18 #70000
ReplyDeleteIMO
For those of you who can watch all day, 114.26 is R2. It held nicely as support once it broke through. That's the number I would watch for potential trouble.
ReplyDeleteJB- GREAT trade!
ReplyDeletemark - i saw that post on SOH. that's why it pays not to get too caught up in the daily movements...
ReplyDeletethx bro! did you pick up any TRE, BTIM or AEE?
ReplyDeletei've got far too many positions so I'm going to use the bump today to get back down closer to 60% equities.
oh, and I'm starting to trade ES, moving super slow but it's very interesting
All-in premarket, all off in the past 15 minutes newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4631 comments) on Fri, 09/24/2010 - 10:44 #70001
ReplyDeleteThe usual suspects + one additional San Francisco company- BAC/CSCO/INTC/WFC/SMH/XLF/V...
My reasons were in the opening post, of course...
JB- No. I'm long enough already (70%), but I like the idea behind BTIM.
ReplyDeleteFor the ES are you using pivots and DVWAP?
Volume good, trend good. God I'm glad I'm already in. I could never hop in at this point.
ReplyDeleteGL guys. I hope this holds. Nice to end the week on a fresh YTD high.
any of you liking micron (MU) here?
ReplyDeleteMU - Yes, I'm in it. NVDA too.
ReplyDeleteREE pullback
ReplyDeleteLong NLS again. They just signed a financing deal for their customers with GE. This bad boy is down and out. I'm betting on a rebound. It's worth taking a flyer here.
ReplyDeleteLong NLS at $1.36.
ReplyDeleteFCS & WFR - nice up moves too
ReplyDeleteLong RAS at $1.49. Play on rebounding CRE market.
ReplyDeleteAdded more RAS(y) at 1.48 and NLS at $1.37.
ReplyDeleteI tell you what...this RED is probably going higher. Look at all of the volume going through it. It was trading at an average volume of about 75,000 shares for several months and it has done 1.5 million and up shares for several days and it hasn't sold off one bit.
ReplyDeletethe smart thing to do would be to buy it now.
team,
ReplyDeleteyou mean redf?
what about sify?
anon - yeah, REDF. i don't like SIFY...its just all hype. well, so too is REDF but at least REDF has a great balance sheet and a much better business model. anyway, i can't believe i'm saying this but it's definitely going higher. even after tripling in a month.
ReplyDeletei'm speaking only on intuition here, obviously. but something that trades this much volume relative to its historical standards without selling off tells me that there is significantly more demand from buyers than sellers.
ReplyDeleteteam,
ReplyDeleteI have small position average cost 4.85- that seemed high at the time, but now wish I had more at this price. (This is my 3rd time rinse and repeat and best move this year).
Hoping for a pull back at the close today going into the weekend so I can add more.
Glad to know you feel the same team, Now i can pull the trigger with confidence
shark, maybe you should take a bite on this one. Cheapy, you could make your year in an afternoon
by and thanks again tof
Anon - I would pay particular attention to how it traded back in late 2002 as a gauge for what might happen now. As volume increases to the 3-5 million level, the risks on the long side increase. I suspect that at some point you will see a pretty harsh selloff but the demand for this is astronomical. I mean I just saw a 140k buy order go through. That's double the average DAILY volume this saw up until a few weeks ago. And it's still down from $20 a few years ago so people probably think there is more upside.
ReplyDeleteHolly crap. We are pushing higher than the most recent high in SPY. If this level holds and can push a little higher, there HAS to be a ton of buy stops.
ReplyDeleteNOT liking the action in AAPL.
ReplyDeleteBYD looks like an interesting play in the casino biz. lots of debt but it's trading at 1/2 times book value. i gotta figure there's going to be some consolidation in that industry.
ReplyDeleteI've looked at BYD TOF, good as a takeover target, I agree.
ReplyDeletemy fav gaming flier is CRYP, only prob is no vol - i think it is primed to get bought.
no more trying to short ES today, ouch
SPY making another run at it....
ReplyDeleteman, i'm up 3375 in my trading acct, would be 5k+ if i hadn't tried to fight the ES trend.
ReplyDeleteJB- Look back in the comments. I asked about you ES trading.
ReplyDeleteya, person pivots, mcad, some specific candle set ups, stoch, bunch of different signals - all out of Person's book - Technical Trading Tactics
ReplyDeletejb - I would think a company like BYD has more attractive assets than CRYP. they own 50% of the Borgata in AC, amongst other things. that place is a cash cow.
ReplyDeletetof - yes, BYD does have "actual" properties for sure, CRYP really just has a technology but I'm looking at it from a premium perspective, if there is an acquisition.
ReplyDeletemy personal view is that online gaming is going to continue to erode on premise gaming, and that's why I like gaming s/w co's like CRYP.....high risk
ES on the 5min just flashed short...but no way, done burning cash going that route today
ReplyDeleteJB- Technical Trading Tactics....Let me know when the Penthouse Forum addition comes out.
ReplyDelete5min ES...forget about it :)....1150 peak and close @ 1146 today.
ReplyDeleteThen again...maybe not. AAPL still having trouble.
ReplyDeletewill do bro.
ReplyDeleteof course the one sell i don't trade hits, quick move down to '42.25
NFLX in a little trouble here also.
ReplyDeleteWell...MMR has sure kicked PXP's but since the deal, but I still think PXP is a much safer LT trade.
ReplyDeleteJust bought 500 more shares of HNUZF at $3.88 and added these shares to my existing sell limit order at $4.39. Aside from ultrashorts, this got to be the only security that is not doing well today...
ReplyDeleteCashed in my RAS at probably breakeven?? at $1.48 and moved it to BYD at $6.85.
ReplyDeleteI think I'm going crazy here but I am still seeing waaaaaaaaaaaaaay too many small caps at ridiculously low prices, assuming we continue to have a recovery in our economy, which is what I'm betting on.
ReplyDeletehere's a real flier....CYD.V
ReplyDeleteIt's been a while for any imbalances...BAC/C/WFC/MS/JPM/CHK/XOM/DOW etc....
ReplyDeleteBought a litle more BYD at $6.81. Sold WATG at $8 that I bought yesterday at $8.46.
ReplyDeleteSorry...at $8.8 that I bought yesterday at $8.46.
ReplyDeleteAt the bar!!!
ReplyDeleteYou're buying, Mark.
ReplyDeleteAnd silver sets a new record high.
ReplyDeleteSpent the day buying and selling TZA. Made $2250 for the day, but just imagine if I'd been playing in the right direction...
ReplyDeleteBought UNG at $6.41, holding that one. If the economy is actually doing better, NG usage will rise.
And what's amazing is that today everyone is betting on the falling dollar causing stocks to inflate...
ReplyDeleteI saw or heard that skit played about 10 times on CNBC today.
One little glass of sherry and I've got one heck of a buzz going... Was today a good day for markets?
ReplyDeleteSure was a change from the dramatic ups and downs, just went up and stayed there as if some issue had been resolved. Kinda eery looking chart in comparison with what we've been witnessing lately.
What's a "normal" day in the market look like, anyway?
CB - You can't claim to have done any differently by playing in the "right" direction unless perhaps you had losses to prove your point.
ReplyDeleteCP/Bob- You guys always carry on a conversation away from the rest of us :))
ReplyDeleteI thought you all (except CP) took the day off.
ReplyDeleteToday, in a lot of cases, I sold pretty well, but I think that's because they were just little bounces on the way down for TZA.
Okay, I'll just say that at this moment in time my feeling is that the 2008 elections resulted in the lesser of evils, which may prove to be an understatement (assuming anything can actually be proven factually).
ReplyDeleteBoy, the Bush administration sure did screw up by not anticipating this economic implosion.
Mark, sometimes it proves beneficial just to spend a few moments in a private corner, not to take anything away from our chat room here, b/c I wouldn't be here if the experience weren't positive ;)
ReplyDeleteI'm feeling a bit better about our future this evening. Even though I know there's no coffee in this house to be had first off in the morning(oops!), I'm considering a quick "pre-fall" cruise through the Shenandoah valley first thing tomorrow.
Today's silver record still stands. It may not seem like much, but I'm actually impressed to be among the first to witness such an event.
ReplyDeleteSounds like fun CP...Go for it!! Me?...You know.
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