Friday, September 24, 2010

9/25/10 I Can't Get No Satisfaction



I know where cb's coming from when he focuses on what went wrong while downplaying what went right.

As of 330 am this morning, I had no take on the market. After booting up the PC and scanning overnight action in Asia and Europe, I still had no take. Then I clicked on MarketWatch, and noted the two data points scheduled for release today. I washed a few dishes and got ready to leave for work. It was going to be a hot day, so I also added a gallon of chlorine to the pool- a skunk caught by surprise dove under the wooden deck. As I walked back to the house, it suddenly occurred to me that the market would ramp up, maybe as much as 200 points. (I can only make that comment here, as y'all have to be the only audience in the blogosphere that would believe me.) I posted 'Leaning Long.'

Before leaving the house, I bought a starter position in BAC. As I drove to work, I tried to sort out in my head which sectors to load up on. I arrived after 5 am, and started picking up positions in WFC, INTC, and CSCO. I really didn't have much time to think about it. XLF. The bid/ask range in SMH was too wide, so I left it for after the open. I added more BAC, which still seemed 'reasonably priced-' it became my largest intraday holding. Man, BAC ended up playing with my head, conning me into selling way too early- it was late in the day before it took off.

As you know, I sold most of it into early morning strength.

For some reason, I spent the remainder of the day (a) regretting the decision to load up on BAC (why not more INTC/CSCO/SMH), and (b) wondering how much happier I'd be if I had also reloaded the buy-and-hold half the night before.

The human psyche invariably gets in its own way, does it not?
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19 comments:

  1. MarkWSeptember 24, 2010 at 6:01 PM

    "The human psyche invariably gets in its own way, does it not?"

    My biggest problem. That's why I'm trading a little less and holding higher quality positions than normal.

    And you right, no one other than us would believe you.

    ReplyDelete
  2. MarkWSeptember 24, 2010 at 6:05 PM

    My thinking on my port right now. All of my positions are still way, way down from the past month. All are nicely green with the exception of C. On hard market sell offs, my port barley budges.

    If we sell off for real, I know that pattern will fail. For now though I'm digging in.

    Comments? I do listen. New YTD highs.

    ReplyDelete
  3. cheapybobSeptember 24, 2010 at 6:14 PM

    Unless and until I can see and analyze my mistakes, to where I would know what they are before making them when a similar situation pops up, I won't ever do any better.

    Its not how much I made, or the winning percentage, other than for the day, that count.

    I know this is gambling, but I want an edge, and the more edge I have, the better. To get there I need to refine what works, and avoid what doesn't, and come up with new things to test out, in order to improve.

    In spite of all my mistakes, it was a good week, far in excess of goals, but to make that consistently repeatable, I need to identify the mistakes, and avoid repeating them.

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  4. 2nd_aveSeptember 24, 2010 at 6:22 PM

    Mark- I just don't see it selling off until next Friday at the earliest. It may even pull back -100 points earlier in the week for a running gap up on Thursday. Of course, all of that is 3-4 trading days away, and it may as well be 3-4 weeks away in this day and age.

    ReplyDelete
  5. MarkWSeptember 24, 2010 at 6:29 PM

    Bob- I know you watch for a bunch of things to converge before making a trade. What are they? Your success rate if amazing. I obviously understand you use large positions sizes to make it financially worthwhile.

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  6. MarkWSeptember 24, 2010 at 6:33 PM

    2nd- You know what I find interesting? Watching my positions this AM a few of them tried like hell to sell off and everyone reversed right where I would expect it to.

    PXP is a great example, and the close in V was VERY strong. Those little things make me believe there is an underlying bid out there that wont go away without some big news event.

    ReplyDelete
  7. cheapybobSeptember 24, 2010 at 7:10 PM

    I sort of use RSI and oscillators, but they lie a lot, and so I combine them with my panic instincts to tell me when to buy. The worse I'd be panicked into dumping, the more likely a winner.

    Selling is a different problem. I just don't have that right at all. I try to use the same theory in reverse, but mostly it causes an early exit. My high percentage is because of the early exits, I am rarely still long for the next leg down.

    ReplyDelete
  8. cheapybobSeptember 24, 2010 at 9:31 PM

    BTW, by "lie a lot", I mean that the indicators bottom out or top out, and that generally might be a momentary bottom or top, but there are many times the indicators stay in overbought or oversold territory, and the price keeps going farther, sometimes much farther, till its a complete panic. Its difficult to see that till after it happens regardless of the indicators.

    Anyway, its taken a lot of tries to get to where I can smell the difference between a bottom that only holds momentarily for a bounce, maybe, and a real bottom that begins a big upmove.

    ReplyDelete
  9. MarkWSeptember 25, 2010 at 3:34 AM

    Man, WTF is the matter with me? I used to play cards until 3 in the morning and now I'm siting here drinking coffee.

    Crap, this is going to be one long Friggin day. Games at 8, 11, 6 and some stupid party tonight we have to go to. Yikes.

    ReplyDelete
  10. 2nd_aveSeptember 25, 2010 at 3:46 AM

    Mark- It's called maturity.

    The little guy didn't score any goals last Saturday, but they shutout a team of larger players, 5-0. It appears he has a strong team this year.

    You need to start drinking coffee at 3 am M-F also- it will improve your pre-market skills.

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  11. 2nd_aveSeptember 25, 2010 at 3:47 AM

    btw, we signed docs yesterday afternoon, and expect to close next Thursday- when I'll post my appraisal story.

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  12. jbSeptember 25, 2010 at 4:02 AM

    great post 2nd. welcome to the club bro! Taylor has to leave at 5:30 this a.m. for a forensics tourny.....man I miss sports!

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  13. 2nd_aveSeptember 25, 2010 at 4:09 AM

    jb- It's going to be hot enough here as it is. I can't imagine the weather down your way. If Mark's headed for Sacto, it'll be the same.

    ReplyDelete
  14. 2nd_aveSeptember 25, 2010 at 4:11 AM

    Right now I'm at the point tof reached last week- I've had a good run since August, and I need to break away from the markets for a few days.

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  15. 2nd_aveSeptember 25, 2010 at 4:12 AM

    Going for a walk by the reservoir before the sun comes up, then a full day of activities with the little guy. See you all this evening.

    ReplyDelete
  16. jbSeptember 25, 2010 at 4:13 AM

    should be 101+ for the next several days, which stinks (pge goes thru the roof)....will probably spend most of the afternoon standing in the pool.

    would love your take on a few stocks that I have started positions in: TRE, BTIM, AEE, CLF and CYD.V, if you get the chance to look at any of them let me know what you think

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  17. jbSeptember 25, 2010 at 4:13 AM

    enjoy the weekend 2nd!

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  18. MarkWSeptember 25, 2010 at 4:47 AM

    Strange club you am'ers have. Can't wait for the appraisal story. My loan got held up, and I'm too figgin angry to post about it, but I will. (Nothing to do with Ted. He's been great.)

    Luckily the tourny is here this weekend. Still be close to 100 though.

    ReplyDelete
  19. KyleSeptember 25, 2010 at 12:51 PM

    A very interesting talk...

    http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/stephen_wolfram_computing_a_theory_of_everything.html

    ReplyDelete

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