Tuesday, September 28, 2010

9/29/10 48 Hours

Bears have been unable to sustain any downside momentum at all. With less than 48 hours to EOQ, I think any sales will be limited to fund managers selling dogs to raise cash- in order to propel winners higher at the finish line.

I have no skin in the game at the moment, but with the SPX @ 1148 and forced to make a bet, I would bet we close Thursday closer to 1165 than to 1130.

87 comments:

  1. 2nd - Yep 1167 might work...

    http://www.screencast.com/t/ZDAwYzFi

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  2. why is 1080 the 0% line Kyle?

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  3. tof - I used the 1220 as the top & 1150 from Jan '10 as the 50% line...the rest fell where they may

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  4. I see that TWM almost hit my buy stop order at $18.15 while I was at work for the second half of the day, but not quite! Those black boxes are losing their touch! :) Hopefully, IWM will move out of the "fake out" range ($66 to $67) and I'll be able to fully participate in this upside of this totally unreasonable rally. :)

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  5. With my sale of MON and SWN puts today, I have completely "put to work" all the remaining non-invested cash I had (as a collateral for my short puts), so I'll "check out" of the market until November OpEx, since at this point I can't really make any more purchases (as I want to avoid the probability of going into margin at November OpEx). Unless, of course, IWM drops below $66.50, in which case I'll try shorting it again and will probably get faked out again.

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  6. Re: Goldman Releases Most Bearish 2011 Outlook / 48 Hours
    Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1445 comments) on Tue, 09/28/2010 - 18:21 #70280 (in reply to #70279)
    Doesn't this whole thing look so very familiar? Didn't we go through this very recently: relentless slow climb up against the backdrop of negative stats, indicators, news and all kinds of reports? Isn't it amazing how, just a few short months later, those same sites, outfits, gurus and traders repeat the same error that killed or nearly killed them last time around? Sure, "this time it's different... "

    I'll never get tired watching this.

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  7. Re: Goldman Releases Most Bearish 2011 Outlook / 48 Hours newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4654 comments) on Tue, 09/28/2010 - 19:20 #70283 (in reply to #70280)
    Vad- It's drama.

    For those of you that insist the market must go down, here's another perspective:

    (a) When the news is all good, and everyone agrees it's going higher, who's left to buy? (No one.)

    (b) When the news is all bad, and everyone agrees it's going lower- yet the market persists in moving higher on low volume, who's left to buy? Just about everyone, no? Not only do sidelined players finally get pulled in, but the ton of bears who have shorted all the way up are finally forced to cover. That's how parabolic moves are fueled...

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  8. Yeah, I hate to say it, but there's a distinct possibility we see a spike up that dwarfs the two we had earlier in the month...

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  9. Re: 48 Hours/ SPX 1200 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4655 comments) on Tue, 09/28/2010 - 19:30 #70284 (in reply to #70283)
    That would in fact be about the ONLY way we end at 1200 on Thursday. Yet it's a distinct possibility, IMO.

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  10. Re: Goldman Releases Most Bearish 2011 Outlook / 48 Hours newSubmitted by Vadym Graifer (1446 comments) on Tue, 09/28/2010 - 19:31 #70285 (in reply to #70283)
    Exactly. You'd think it's a Newton's binomial theorem.

    Don't know about the drama... Rather tragedy, and every time I see it, it's like a car wreck, horrifying but just can't stop watching.

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  11. 2nd - I doubt we will get another spike up...the only way that happens is if we get a 150k to 200k jobs number on next Friday. it's possible but i think a grind higher is more likely.

    I can point to my two random discussions I have had with friends, one of which is in the tech industry (his company supplies semis including INTC, TXN, Samsung, etc) and one of which is in the headhunter industry, which suggest jobs are definitely coming back. Both of them said that things are on fire and they work for billion dollar businesses.

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  12. and i'm not ad libbing when i say "on fire". they both said that to me in separate conversations. my friend in the tech industry said his company is now above their pre-recession employment levels. my friend in the headhunter industry said that his company has had their best month in several years in September.

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  13. Classic. Their putting the screws to the bears now that the AH is closed.

    CP- What's your take on CADC's report. Look flat basically on Rev/Earnings as far as I can tell. Maybe investors just don't believe there is any growth in their business model? Still, it's P/E is 3 ish.

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  14. CADC - I think we got what was promised, I consider it good.

    Now we'll see what everyone else thinks, I just hate selling only to watch the price skyrocket afterward, it happens every time I sell.

    Growth in business model? I'd say definitely, considering the PEG is 0.19, growth rate is key here but even more important is the market must first recognize mis-priced value and that hasn't happened yet, or I've overlooked something.

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  15. There's huge growth potential if you think about it, Major efforts to build airport infrastructure are just getting underway in addition to all of the multi-family dwellings that are on the table.

    There's going to be one heck of a lot of concrete poured in China over the next several years and probably long into the future.

    I guess my primary concern involves something I may have overlooked.

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  16. CP- It make perfect sense to me also. Maybe their too small to gain market share?

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  17. Too small - That's a possibility. Probably offset by a girth of positives, one of which is being publicly traded?

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  18. What I mean is, if you listen and believe in the song and dance, China is trying to open their markets.

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  19. CADC - But then, if you look at it from a T/A perspective it's easy to see a downward trend that's just over a year old... pretty bearish looking.

    RSI(7) just turned up through 30 though...

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  20. CAL to cut Baseball/Rugby in cost savings move....

    http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-cal-sports-20100929,0,6333830.story

    I'm sure you all think this is a non-issue, but I don't. Having nothing to do with sports, it's a real tell for me.

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  21. Wow- I can't even believe it now that I think more abut it. NO division one baseball for CAL? I might take profits in everything I own tomorrow. I'm serious.

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  22. Evening gang,

    The weather in Houston has been fantastic over the last few days so I’m spending a lot of time outside with the toddler while mom and the oldest work on homework. The summers here are just brutal and it feels like we get this pent up demand to spend time outside when it’s not so miserable. I can see where gas loads have been higher due to cooling demand.

    Work has been busy over the last few days and I’m behind on my reading but I do look at a couple of the natty summaries that I get everyday and it seems that most of the drop recently in natty is due to lower tropical threats. I suppose we could still get something but it seems that the focus has shifted to the remaining storage fills and winter. One of the early estimates I saw for this week’s storage number was for an injection of 75 Bcf. WARNING, I still own UNG so that alone may be reason enough to stay away from natty.

    I’ll catch up on the reading and post any comments of interest later this week.

    later

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  23. Re: Hopefully, Someone In Here
    Submitted by gforce (324 comments) on Tue, 09/28/2010 - 23:30 #70293 (in reply to #70264)
    I had WAG for a while back at 29.33...I sold it from 27 or so. Bill said it will go to 37, but I opted for another and do not feel bad, just could have stayed longer. It may still be worth acquiring here.

    Addition:

    I had intended to buy it back, but it only moved down very little. I missed my opportunity. I had already moved my money, but could have, just didn't. If, if, if...seriously it may pull back some; if it doesn't and goes higher I can always sell calls later around 37 or so.

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  24. Re: WAG/ Missed Opportunities newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4656 comments) on Wed, 09/29/2010 - 00:05 #70295 (in reply to #70293)
    gforce- I wouldn't spend more than a few seconds regretting a missed opportunity. Better ones come up every day. We had at least two of them (on an intraday basis) today- AAPL and CSCO. Then there are sell-offs like ADBE. No reason to chase anything.

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  25. Port- Thanks! I'm in mourning right now :(

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  26. RE: NLS

    According to management, they are already benefitting from the credit agreement with GE. In today's press release regarding submitting a plan for getting their market cap or equity above $50 Million to meet the listing criteria from the NYSE, they said the following:

    "The plan that the Company will submit to the NYSE will include the Company's progress with their new third-party consumer credit finance provider. As previously announced, the Company experienced considerable declines in approval rates from its prior provider and decided to replace that program with a new agreement with GE Money Bank. Since implementing the new program with GE Money Bank, the Company has already seen incremental improvement in credit approval rates during the month of September and management expects this trend will continue in coming months and contribute to improved operating results.

    Edward Bramson, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Nautilus, Inc., stated, "We are confident that our business is moving in the right direction following the implementation of our new consumer credit financing offerings. The underlying demand for our products continues to be strong, and we believe that our new relationship with GE Money Bank will enable us to take advantage of consumer demand and deliver improved financial results."

    FD: Long at $1.35ish.

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  27. Mark,

    Notice they didn't cut their football program?

    Whaddaya expect? Towns across America are outsourcing their LIBRARIES for Chistssake!

    We have GOT to be getting a selloff sometime in here today prior to the jobless #'s tomorrow right?

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  28. Landry-
    Random Thoughts:

    I like the fact that the market faked out lower and then reversed to close well, in the plus column, and right at multi-month highs.

    This action scores as a positive and it puts us back in breakout mode.

    The sector action continues to improve--much more on this in Thursday's show.

    As usual, one day at a time. Obviously, if the market comes right back in, all bets are off.

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  29. Seems like PAL wants to rise above the 4 level

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  30. First play of the day, TZA sub $26, good for $700 profit.

    Sold too early. When will I ever learn?

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  31. Energy plays are on fire today.

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  32. 2nd play on TZA from low $26, now at $1175 profit for the day

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  33. Having another one of those out preforming days that scare me.

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  34. DougKass
    i continue to expand shorts into giddiness -- and awful acting financials and continued bad market breath $$

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  35. Bullish inventory report for crude.

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  36. TZA again from $26.10, now at $1460 for the day

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  37. TZA again from $26.19, now at $1720 for the day

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  38. TZA again from 26.26 to 26.32 and UCO from 9.14 to 9.18, now at $2060 net for the day

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  39. Sold UCO too early, oh well...

    Par for the course with me...

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  40. eslr for the suicidal.....

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  41. I went long a tiny amount of eslr as an investment type thing they got a new ceo today.

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  42. RE: Doug Kass

    If bears drop the ball again today then that has to be flat out demoralizing.

    Tomorrow's claims numbers, if bad, will surely result in a gap down. Depending on how today closes, it could open up the possibility that we have a fierce last day of the quarter reversal.

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  43. The heard mentality in this market is astounding.

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  44. Long RAS again at $1.66.

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  45. Averaged up on my BYD at $7.18. Position is now too big.

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  46. Some Chinese stuff seems to be moving in the right direction finally, DGW/DYP/CADC...

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  47. The bears are trying to give us an STD(sustained trade deficit).

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  48. Jeez!!! That was scary... Was up to 35,000 shares of TZA. Dumped close to $26.00.

    Now at $3940 and giving up for the day while I still have my wallet!

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  49. anyone look at NANO lately...I'm now officially going to stab my eyes out with a lead pencil...OUCH

    cash is cash cb...good job!

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  50. TZA again from 27.60's to 25.70's, now at $4460 for the day

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  51. JB- Didn't you get the memo about not mentioning stocks we've traded that have doubled without us?

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  52. I need an electro-shock gizmo that tells me not to do that every time I sell before the chatt says to!

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  53. All these indicators and arrows and stuff that I've spent countless hours to tweak till they work, and what do I do?

    Sell anyway!

    LOL, DOH!

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  54. JB- For example, we're not supposed to talk about MMR.

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  55. missed the TZA trade while making a pot of tea... Grrrr!

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  56. CB- You've been on a frecking tear man!

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  57. TZA again from 25.60's to 25.70's again, now at $4680 for the day

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  58. XLF- Cracking a little. I might close my SSO in the IRA as it is heavily weighted to financials.

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  59. In fact, I just did. SSO off @ 39.64...6.71%.

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  60. Mark - Good move. Looks like tomorrow we may get a gap down with bad claims numbers. The S&P can't crack through 1,150.

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  61. I should say...we're at risk of a gap down with bad claims numbers. No idea if that will happen but the risk stocks are acting weak today. Risk seems to be elevated here. I'm taking off many of my longs right now. Only leaving NLS and BYD on the board.

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  62. The downtrend in the daily ESLR chart has flattened out, and so maybe today's rally will start a big oversold bounce like in REDF. :) I just bought 5000 shares at $0.66 and placed a sell stop at $0.59, just below the recent support level.

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  63. TOF -- don't forget, bad weekly claim numbers tomorrow will increase the likelihood of QE2, which I think is what the market really wants now. We'll verify this hypothesis tomorrow by observing the market reaction to the claim numbers.

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  64. PXP off @ 26.26...4.03%
    SWN off @ 33.54...8.08%
    HEK off @ 3.93....6.66%

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  65. Claims numbers - Nobody seems to want that risk...

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  66. TZA one last time from 25.83 to 25.90's, now at $5184 profit net for the day

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  67. David - Reaction to the news is important. If we get a 430-440 number it may actually be bad for the market...tough to say. I'm still about 65% long at this point either way.

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  68. Wonder what thoughts are going through Obama's head at this very moment, do you think he's thinking about political elections (jobs for politicians) or the economy (jobs for citizens and taxpayers)?

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  69. Jumped back into RAS...small position...at $1.64.

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  70. That close looked like a sell signal to me, hope I'm wrong about that...

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  71. CADC - I don't like how the gap up was sold off.

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  72. $ES_F #futures imbalance HEADS UP hearing very big numbers for sale tomorrow for the 3rd Q re balance YOU hear it here first


    #NYSEimbalance Summary: $468,821,283 x $0 thats to buy boys and girls

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  73. DougKass
    Pressing shorts... I will be on Fast Money to discuss strategy tonite at five pm $$

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  74. "#NYSEimbalance Summary: $468,821,283 x $0 thats to buy "

    No sellers? Just confirming...

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  75. Ok, I bought more BYD at $7.16 at the close.

    BYD has the right of first refusal in the sale of MGM's remaining 50% stake in the Borgata. This is yet another reason that BYD is so attractive to the likes of Harrah's / LVS / etc in my mind, in addition to their operating margins and the diversified asset base of BYD. A buyer of BYD gets 50% of Borgata and the first crack at buying the remaining 50%. Someone like LVS can do a 10% to 15% capital raise and use the proceeds to buy out BYD and pay its debt off and then it would have a highly accretive acquisition. Alternatively, they could raise debt at lower rates than BYD is paying, pay off BYD's debt with the new debt, and have a much more profitable business.

    The Borgata in Q2 alone earned $17 Million in operating profits. That's an annualized run rate of $70 Million. The entirety of BYD is currently selling for a market cap of $600 Million.

    http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/communities/atlantic-city_pleasantville_brigantine/article_9806cb6c-99db-11df-98f8-001cc4c002e0.html

    "Separately, MGM is pursuing the sale of its 50 percent ownership of Borgata, company spokesman Gordon Absher said.

    “We continue to have conversations, but we have no announcements at this time,” Absher said, declining to disclose more details about the Borgata talks.

    Boyd Gaming, which built and operates Borgata, has the right of first refusal in the casino’s sale. Boyd has said it will consider its options, but has not yet committed to buying the rest of Borgata."

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  76. CADC Earnings conference call - The only caller questions received were from Roth Capital, the company that arranged CADC's reverse merger.

    Roth was involved with the China paper (DYP) under-writing and is being sued on behalf of shareholders over that deal.

    http://www.ir-site.com/chinaacm/events.asp

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