Thursday, September 2, 2010

9/3/10 Before You Accuse Me


So an EOD rally allowed me to close out the 'buy-and-hold' half at the highs of the day.

With time for introspection, my reasons for cashing out:

(a) I was 'hoping' my positions would close at the highs. When I find myself hoping, odds favor closing.

(b) I was up 5-6% over 2 days (I ended the day closer to 5%, as Fidelity charges a short-term redemption fee of 0.75%). What crossed my mind was:

(i) Pigs get slaughtered,

(ii) Just last week I was thinking it would take awhile for my balance(s) to hit this level day trading small positions- now that the target was within reach, why not take it? Last,

(iii) I wouldn't want to be sitting at the dinner table explaining how I let a 5% gain slip away.

Think I flip sides too quickly? Well, sometimes it's an advantage.

139 comments:

  1. I won't argue with taking any gains. Its the only way you actually get them. Otherwise they seem to disappear eternally.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I think you need a blog that doesn't allow anon posting that allows you to control who registers, and can post, or at least has an ignore feature.

    Its very disheartening to see this sink to the level of name calling and fightmongering.

    I'll probably just go find someplace else to hang out, I guess. I don't need people upsetting my trading thoughts. Cripes, I have a hard enough time as is keeping my mind on target.

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  3. I can tell you all about disappearing gains if you need help envisioning that, just look at the GMO chart.

    I misjudged traders attention span on that one, but I'm certain financing of the new mine is moving forward as well as permitting, so it's only a matter of time...

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  4. Just got back...I hope things have calmed down. Let's not use any sexist/homophobic/racist slurs OK?

    True story. When I was in college a teammate/buddy of mine on the rugby team was also a Air Force cadet at UCLA. One of the toughest SOB's I'd ever meet. Azusa Pacific was in town for a football game when Christian Okoye played for him. We we're hanging out a local bar and Okoye was harassing some chicks there. My buddy went over to him and tapped him on the shoulder and asked him to leave. Okoye looked like he was about to throw a punch and just froze.

    My friend latter graduated and flew an A-10A Thunderbolt 2 ground attack fighter in the Gulf War. Earned 2 Purple Hearts and the Silver Star.

    He's gay.

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  5. CB- I hear you. I can always switch the blog so authorized users can only comment. I think we're OK now, right guys??

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  6. JB- Thanks for the heads up. I'll tread carefully.

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  7. cheapybob:

    1. anonymity under any assumed nick is just as anonymous as nick Anonymous. It's not like you know who shark is, even though you think you know he is shark, right? If I post as a shark-kicker, what's it going to change for you?
    2. I firmly hold an opionion that it's types like shark that turn any place into slam, not those who call them on their crap. You may hold different opinion - that's fine. You act in accordance with your views and I do in accordance with mine.

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  8. Right Mark.....we just need to have one person, un-handled, stop taking personal potshots at someone that we all know in cyberspace, a guy that we expect to make a few out-of the-box comments and even enjoy them. Tolerance Now!

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  9. Its not who someone is, its just that if they can't be anon, then they have to be themselves, regardless of what name or nick is chosen. Hiding behind anon just tells me you have no guts to be able to stand up and say what you think.

    Anyway, in my mind its BOTH sides that are being high schoolish, picking virtual fights, and trying to make them into real fights, etc. Why do you both persist at it? Its an EGO thing isn't it? A show for VB I bet. Macho, Macho for the girl to see, huh? Is that it? I never understand people that feel the need to do that.

    Why can't you just go away or ignore each other? Maybe your bottom line would be better if you spent the same time and effort at trying to improve your trading, instead.

    Hey, I KNOW mine is crap. At least I'm trying to improve it. Net, net I had no losing months this year, so even with my inability to figure out when to exit, the rest is good enough that I make good money in spite of my weakness.

    Enough typing. Why should I teach you anything if you try to ruin my day?

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  10. When I was a kid, it would bother me alot when someone didn't like me.

    When I got older, it became clear that whether it bothered me or didn't bother me didn't change anything.

    I don't think Anon's opinion of him means anything to shark, and vice versa.

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  11. cheapy, if your trading is crap then exactly what is mine? Oh, no, I prefer not to go down that road! ;)

    We're all here to help each other, let's not let anything so trivial ruin it for us, okay?

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  12. Also, I can't tell which anon is which, even, to know when they are different people. Is the person posting as anon above the same on that was picking fights? How should I know?

    Anyway, the 2 of you have ruined this blog.

    Nice job

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  13. I agree, 2nd.

    Sorry, I have no solution.

    I get pissed easily by people with those kind of attitudes. Its my nature. Its also my nature to try to be nice, but eventually that kind of stuff just PISSES me off.

    If its not solved, the only options I have, as I see it, are to go away, or pretty much go silent, like at bc's blog, for example.

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  14. cp, you need to decide that for yourself.

    maybe anon and shark should create a virtual smack down and high school style fight picking blog, LOL

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  15. and the few post i've made as anon i included my port2013 sig

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  16. OK...Let's get back to why we are all here.

    port2013- FWIW, I've meet some of the bloggers here and have almost all of their personal (real) emails. I understand your point about Shark. Some of us just take it differently. Nuff said.

    I'm going to send out an email tonight to my clients and see what their take is right now for their business'. I'll let you know what I hear back.

    Tomorrow should be interesting....

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  17. 2nd- BTW, great Fing call man. I might not be far behind you on profit taking. Instead of cashing in, like David, I'll set stops and let them do their work. Last summer/fall still burns.

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  18. 2nd,

    I admire your clear and confident thinking lately.
    \\\

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  19. mark, i could be wrong, but none of the fight picking posts had a port2013 sig in them, so i think he is just pointing that out to us so that we understand they weren't his, and telling us how we can tell which ones were his.

    Wish i could just "set stops", lol. By the time UNG hit 6.30 i ws up to xx,000 shares. LOL, it would have made for a juicy stop for someone to run. Really, though, with such a cheap share price, it wasn't a huge position in real terms.

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  20. CB- UNG, as posted earlier, I had an order in @ 6.17, which was S2 on my charts. LOD was 6.18.

    BTW- I'd much rather trade the way you do, and have the capital to make it work, but don't have the time during market hours. Sounds like a cop out, I know, but it's not. When I'm trading in the morning I'm also taking calls/emails, making breakfast for the kids, fighting with Patricia. You know, standard family crap :)

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  21. thx, by the way, I have not made any comments about Shark. I've only made a couple of comments last week I think regarding David's comments on the WLI Growth Index but I put my "port2013" in comment section. I have not commented since then.

    My bio, 20 years in the natural gas biz, starting off in accounting, then logistics, a few other things which eventully made me an expert on moving the physical gas around the east coast grid. Now I'm more like an internal broker, I execute financial swaps to hedge our natty business at the reqeust of others and I manage a little storage. I've never worked with producers which is where all my questions seem to originate from these days.

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  22. port2013- Your expertise is welcome. I'm guessing you know my thoughts about the energy patch mostly come from MOG who is on the board of TLM and has spent his life as a CEO/Chairman in the majors.

    Energy for some reason seems to be a passion for me. What's your take on my positions in SWN/PXP/XCO?

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  23. thks for the bio, port.

    Me, I slice pepperoni so thin it only has 1 side, LOL. Degree in Econ/Bus, Acctg, best at cost accounting and reduction. But I couldn't run an adding machine, and was lazy, so instead I programmed the systems to do all the work for me. That moved me from Cost Acctg to Controller in charge of IT and Acctg. Then went out and ran a consulting bus designing and implementing systems for mfg bus. Of course after 9/11 all mfg here was moved overseas, and so I shut it down and been learning to invest/trade since then.

    Of late, given the utter hopelessness of any long term investing, I just trade, and try to make $500 a day on avg. I figure thats $120k a year. Only 1 year so far has been that bad, 2008 when I lost money (too many attempts at investing). So I just look for things where there is good liquidity and movement, and something out of kilter, be it over or underpriced, and try to make a trade out of it, and collect my $500 rent for the day, or more.

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  24. Mark, yes, after I had bought UNG I saw your 6.17 number and by then it was recovering, so I didn't think it would get hit.

    I don't actually LIKE UNG, but I don't care, I just try to find an opportunity, and it looked better than the others.

    Making $1500+ today off it in 3 separate rounds with 29 trades total and not even one individual losing trade at all made me feel real good.

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  25. PS: I wish every day could be that good, but its not realistic to expect 100% winners even for 1 day. One of these days I'll figure that optimized exit thing out to where I can use it everyday and increase profitability with it.

    I couldn't hold anything going into tomorrow because I expect a -200k jobs number.

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  26. There are 3 peeps in my office that I talk to on a regular basis about investing in other companies (including the Vice Pres over our group) and they all rank SWN pretty high from the operations side. I don't hear anything about PXP or XCO.

    A couple of important points 1) my guys are pretty good about judging the operations of other companies but they don't know anything about stock prices. 2) and I've learned this lesson just since the BP spill, your energy contact is probably better connected and knows more about MONEY than me and my peeps. He's talking to the people that make the money decisions and that's pretty good.

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  27. argg, can't spell and its late Houston time. Good trading tomorrow. Hopefully I'll be posting more natty charts on CC this weekend. Today the oct/nov natty spread tightened about $.023 which helps the UNG rolls. I had some UNG earlier this week but I just keep thinking natty is gonna print below $3.50 before we start running up. I was actually looking at SWN as a potential long term investment for when the 3 and 5 years strips start going up.

    later

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  28. CB said: "cp, you need to decide that for yourself."

    Agreed, ride bene chi ride l'ultimo

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  29. What the heck CP?...Another thing I don't understand besides trading?? :)

    port2013- All I can say is MOG considers SWN the primer Natty player and runs the best hedge book. It's by far my largest position.

    GL tomorrow my friends. I suspect we'll see if a trend can be followed.

    TOF- Man, more props to you. That's fantastic and well deserved.

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  30. Well, its not my place to make fun of your profits, because I don't think you post them for me to know whether they were relatively good or bad.

    I have to say, my efforts at learning to trade this year really have paid off. In the past, my trading usually ended up a wash, and my investing either made me rich or one year, poor. I think my risk level is much lower trading, because I usually don't have much overnight risk, which in the even of a disaster, might save my butt. I don't have the huge $1mm+ winners, either, but in this day/age, things are so "uncertain" (caused bt obama and congress and fed, IMO), as ben put it, that I don't dare invest long term in anything, except AU/AG unless things get stupidly cheap, again.

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  31. How cool!!!! My 2 year old boy is singing "Sweet Caroline". Ciao.

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  32. port2013 -- I'll consider you a natural gas guru now and will start asking you all the questions about it that have been bothering me. :)

    My main question right now is: why do you think NG futures will drop below $3.50 even though the amount of gas in storage keeps growing at a slower rate than last year and is getting close and close to the 5-year average, after being at a 5-year max a couple of months ago? In fact, shouldn't the NG prices explode to the upside if this trend keeps up a little while longer?

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  33. Guys, I've been posting anon but most of the time I'm signing FF so you know who I am....and I'm pretty sure you know my style of writing.
    I was just trying to point out that the tit for tat name calling and bluster was getting old.
    I got to CC just after 2nd and I think we've known shark longer than about anyone on the two lists.
    Yes he posts inflammatory POV's but as long as he isn't taking personal shots at anyone here I don't really care.

    This place has been home for a long time and I want it to stay that way.

    BTW 2nd, I took profits today and your next post announced the same. Lots of good trading here today, good job guys.

    Cheapy....I wish I could trade like you do. I think you are too hard on yourself. Have you tried a 1 min chart with a relatively fast RSI?
    It might help you with your exits.

    FF

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  34. I was looking for the next great opportunity (after buying MON at $50 and selling it at $61) to invest my tiny children's Coverdell ESA accounts and the small IRA from my first job (while I was still a student). I think I just found such an opportunity: UNG seems to have bottomed out, and so does SWN! I overlayed the UNG and SWN charts and they look almost identical, if the constant contango erosion of UNG is factored out. I was a little concerned at first about the downtrend in SWN since January, as it is probably due to expiring NG hedges in 2010 in addition to the downtrend in the NG prices. But then I looked at CHK and saw exactly the same picture. So there is nothing wrong with SWN per se. Therefore, I have just placed buy stop limit orders on SWN at $34.00/$34.05 for the full balances of my two Coverdell ESA accounts and also for about 2/3 of my IRA account (the other 1/3 is invested into ECU.TO at $0.6, and I want to let that position to run a little longer).

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  35. there's my boy, interesting that the board met in China, had to prepare a ton of crap for that mtg, some nuggets in this piece about why the SY deal, and why SAAS/Cloud:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-03/sap-sees-limitless-potential-in-chinese-market-co-ceo-mcdermott-says.html

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  36. DJIA futes jump +100 points on jobs data.

    I left significant profits on the table.

    That said, no telling where we close, so my 'regrets' only extend to the trading half at this point.

    Congrats to those who held positions.

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  37. hi guys,
    just old e5 checking in to thank the up swelling of info that has popped up lately. i find all sorts of stuff to look up, such as mark's reference to open/ close imbalance, this week. i'm a scared rabbit, dealing mostly of how to schedual trading w/in ira restrictions . otherwise i'd be following tof.
    does anyone here know how to manipulate the color and hue of chart lines? on top of visual degeneration i'm color blind, so TA becomes skewed
    via factoring t/ current buzz.
    i have been sitting on my hands, for assorted reasons. this past week has been a spectacular oppy to experience professionalism AWA enjoyable in feeling and seeing the risk and reward.
    e5
    i would like to shed t/anonymous but my cp skills need help

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  38. 2nd - great trades my man. i know it's easy to say this in hindsight with the futures up big, but there was no way in hell i was selling anything. i still think we're set for a big rally that ultimately will end with us up 20 to 30% from the 1040 level. rather than time it, i'm going on vacation. see you guys on Tuesday! hope you all have a great Labor Day weekend, even if you're Canadian!

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  39. Bear Blitz newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4528 comments) on Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:49 #68476
    DJIA futes jump +120 points on jobs data.

    So I left significant profits on the table.

    That said, no telling where we close, so my 'regrets' only extend to the trading half at this point.

    Congrats to those who held positions.

    When it comes to trading, Regrets outnumber gains 10:1. Maybe more. That's the nature of the game.

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  40. one stock i think i would recommend buying is CREE...

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  41. Re: EUR/JPY is off like a rocket/ Picking Sides newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4529 comments) on Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:58 #68477 (in reply to #68475)
    Rockets: TBT, IWM, DZZ.

    Suicides: TLT, TZA, DGP.

    I like hanging out with desperate types, so looking to open positions alongside the suicides.

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  42. hop over to soh 2nd, some of them are getting very desperate right about now.

    i'll be looking to fade the gap.

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  43. Same here, 2nd.

    Too be honest, my thinking is that the jobs number is completely fudged this month, and only part of the fudging was done with the CES B/D adjustment (that's where they usually cheat to make things look better), implying that they actually lied on the main number, which would require someone very powerful's direction, I'd think, to order it. I say that because we had avg 40,000 per week higher claims, and long term unemployed not getting better, and all the double dip talk, and yet the jobs number improves significantly, for example in construction and manufacturing, both areas we know are laying off.

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  44. All that, and then the numbers improve dramatically?

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  45. hey - take a look at REDF back in late 2002 and how it gapped up to hit the 200 DMA in November of that year. 7 months later it was up 14 times its value in November. I'm not saying it will happen again but that chart looks quite similar to the current REDF chart.

    ahh wishful thinking.

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  46. Re: The gap on TLT is being filled today! newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4530 comments) on Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:15 #68484 (in reply to #68482)
    jack- Nice conundrum to have. I would imagine you've had a great week. Then on Friday your wife surprises you with a new Lexus in the driveway.

    As for me- opened TZA @ 31.34, closed @ 31.48- enough to surprise my wife with dinner tonight.

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  47. tof- Up 12% as of yesterday, and waking up to another x% today? Now that's the kind of start we all need to the long weekend.

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  48. jb- Gives new meaning to the term, 'Slope of Hope.'

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  49. cb- I don't believe much of anything I read anymore. I read it all b/c I need to, then watch for clues as prices and sectors move.

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  50. shark/vb/CP- I see your pal is finally getting it together- but do you trust him to stay clean?

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  51. 2nd - yesterday was a doozy of a day for me. i had like 4 stocks up between 5% and 20%..usually evokes selling for me but i think its time to get greedy.

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  52. 2nd, I scaled out of pal (75%) at break even over the last 2 weeks, I am in REDF - thanks for whoever suggested it!

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  53. I though we didn't have to listen to Romher anymore. Go home, Reich is waiting for you...

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  54. TZA #2: Opened @ 31.06, lucky to escape with singed hair @ 31.09...

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  55. TBT is up what, 12% in 3 days? If the bond trade really starts to unravel, look out.

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  56. Watch for the OGR.

    Opening gap reversal, not Mark. Dude, if your TV is on you deserve it. change the channel.

    FF

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  57. How much more pain can the bears take? Well, this time it may not be about pain tolerance. It may actually be about a sustainable advance in the indexes.

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  58. FF- :)....

    Hope your well. I'm guessing a brew pub night for you.

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  59. Let's see if the VIX can get back in the mid-teens.

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  60. Trust?

    Nah I sold in the rush.

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  61. Ouch...maybe Obama can kill the rally...;)

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  62. I will re-buy if it either goes down or keeps going up. Right here she's stalled.


    Chicken GMO looking good:)

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  63. ISM...I'd be careful, it might not matter.

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  64. out UNG at 6.38

    That ISM service sector number tells you the jobs number was a complete lie

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  65. waiting for flappy lips to flap 'em.

    Then I will re-buy at 3.30:)

    FF I exntend to you my apology and my hand to shake. I'm sorry I upset you.

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  66. Hmmmm....not a bad idea!
    I'll buy a few with what I'm making on TLT this AM!

    Seriously though, turn off the Rohmer channel, it will just confuse the issue and ruin your day.

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  67. REDF...I know it might sound crazy but it could easily go to 3.40. Nothing but air above now.

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  68. redf.....congratulations vb...anything that flies that high ought to have a stewardess onboard!

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  69. TZA #3: opened @ 31.22, closed @ 31.43...

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  70. AONE poking above the 20. Might be good until the 50. 1 buck higher.

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  71. sounds like Obama isn't going to talk..

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  72. ZSL - I'm watching for a good entry for some reason, may not be for a while I hope...

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  73. The prez not speaking...very unusual.

    This is confounding the market.

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  74. Watch/hope for a bounce in SPY @ 110.15ish.

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  75. Oh dear lord....THEIR ALL there...down we go.....:)

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  76. Bull trap/test newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4532 comments) on Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:19 #68495
    I would expect to see the market test buyers who opened this morning.

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  77. TZA #4: opened @ 31.47, closed @ 31.66...

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  78. i don't want to get tof mad at me again so i'm not going to comment on the latest wh comms...:)

    dropped a bid in for SSO,

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  79. bought some DGP at 33.13, just $100k worth

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  80. No worries Shark. We've been through a lot and some things we agree on and some we don't. Sometimes I just shrug my shoulders and other times I laugh my a@@ off. That's just life, right?

    No apologies required.

    FF

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  81. HNU.to UNG:

    Both charts gave a bullish buy signal at the close yesterday.

    Well, it looks like it will not take long for me to put the cash I raised by yesterday's selling back to work in the market. The hair stands up on the back of my neck looking at both charts. Unlike trading wizards, I don't know where the price will be after today, but I see all the ingredients for a trade. For me it will be HNU.to. This one is like riding a bronco. The last time I rode it was back on July 15th for a day trade from $5.38 to $6.00 in just under two hours.

    TOF: Thanks, looking forward to the long weekend.

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  82. is there news coming out on this redf -

    (thanks team, i think this is one of yours. I owe you a case of wine)

    will check out cree too.

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  83. CADC - The market maker is pissing me off on this one, hopefully he takes it back to recent lows.

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  84. If you like CREE then you might also like VECO?

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  85. TZA #5: opened @ 31.97, closed @ 32.04...

    Trading ranges narrowing-> we should take off in one direction or the other soon...

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  86. Holding nicely for a Friday/holiday weekend. See you guys at the close.

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  87. CADC - Has not officially reported but are scheduled to soon. They did release a tentative preliminary report and the stock responded positively.

    I have faith this one will move up strongly, and I'm gonna add if I can get the timing right otherwise just retain my original position.

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  88. Sold the DGP for $710 of profit, getting me to $930 so far today. It should have been $100 higer, if it weren't for TD Amertrade system being so clumsy to enter that the bid disappeared before the trade got in, so the order had to be reentered.

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  89. ZSL - glad I waited on this one, silver looked like it might push $20 based on the chart from a couple days ago inclusive of high RSI's but has been weak since. Could be the push to $20 is back on and just needed some time to work off the high RSI figures...

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  90. too bad I sold UNG too early again this am. Need more patience. Its not for lack of available capital...

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  91. i do the same thing all the time cb, regardless, congrats on your solid trades today.

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  92. I could never get away with banging on the table here, I'd never see the dog again.

    This dog only displays courage when a wild animal is running from him, such as a rabbit or a deer. He chased three deer away this morning, the deer were running from me though.

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  93. Palladium - My target price for Pd is $535, let's see if it sticks...

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  94. nice list of sectors, etc (from a post on cc yday)

    http://breakpointtrades.com/market_lab/index.php/annotated_charts/

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  95. TOF: Man, did you choose a stock to put most of your money into! You'll need this money for your upcoming married life. :)

    As for me, REDF hit the sell limit order this morning at $2.50 for 500 shares and I just manually sold 775 shares at $2.85, for a total profit of $1360 on my small purchase last week of 2000 shares at $1.92. I've never had such large percentage gains so quickly, and given my upcoming vacation at Laguna Beach next week, I just figured I must take those profits and spend them away next week. :)

    That should definitely color my vacation in a rose color, unlike my vacation in Cancun in October 2008, when my portfolio was going down 10% per day and even constant tequila shots were not enough to completely take my mind off it...

    I still have 1000 shares of REDF that I bought at $2.05, and I'll keep those shares until REDF goes up 14X, according to TOF. :)

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  96. Mark, knowing that SWN is your largest position, I decided to help you out a little and provided the "floor" for SWN today at $34.05 by placing last night the buy limit orders in my IRA and children's Coverdell ESA accounts. All these orders were triggered at $34.05. I figured that SWN is a safer alternative for my long-term accounts than UNG, which gets constantly eaten up by contango. In the short-term, however, if UNG rallies 10%, then SWN should rally at least 10% as well, so I have a similar upside but without any possible long-term irrecoverable damage.

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  97. SWN - David, I wish you hadn't done that, I had a stink bid in at $33.55

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  98. SWN - on a (5 Year / Weekly) view is near the 200WMA @ 32.80 & it has rolled-off since the 52.82 Jan peak. Just FWIW

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  99. REDF - If anyone deserved a gain like that it was TOF. Great work!

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  100. REDF up 26% for the day already! Man, I am itching to sell my remaining 1000 shares for a $1K profit. I wish every trade would turn out like this...

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  101. NIB (THIN!!!) - I like these 'sliding-down the Lower BB' commodity plays

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  102. Kyle - SWN - I'm not comprehending your message very clearly... it seems like a warning to longs but I'm not certain of my interpretation.

    Sorry, I guess you're saying the 200WMA does not bode well, in which case I do comprehend.

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  103. Moving up my sell stop limit order on TBT to $31.70/$31.69 for 300 shares I picked up at $31.10, so as to make sure that I will have a profit on this trade.

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  104. NIB - No kidding thin! When does the rotation into thinly traded equities begin?

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  105. Moving up the sell stop limit order on RBCN to $26.99/$26.98 for 200 shares I picked up at $25.40, to make sure that I have a profit on this trade as well.

    It's enough for me to have one runaway trade (HNU.TO) -- I don't need any more of those...

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  106. With all kinds of crappy little stocks catching bids now, shouldn't ESLR be next? :)

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  107. UNG has decided to join the party after all!

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  108. REDF- Might this have something to do with it?

    Rediff.com India Ltd. (Nasdaq: REDF) 18.8% HIGHER; higher today as reports of Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO) losing South Korean partner NHN Corp., based on their alliance with Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT). Yahoo and NHN's search advertising contract is set to expire in November 2010. The move is the second time an Asian partner as dumped Yahoo!, with the last being Yahoo Japan, which is switching to a Google-based search engine.

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  109. SWN - Am trying to learn from Landry to expand the time-scale backward & look at things through the view of this whole 06-10 timeframe & see if it still looks good on THAT 06-10 chart. The SWN Dec 25 short puts look like my type of trade, but buying SWN w/o any confirmation of upside after it has declined all year isn't. Just me man. WTF do I know...

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  110. ARMH - Believe this is one of the few (2) longs Landry is continuing to hold. The 3 Year chart is all you need to see...

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  111. with the colleges my kid wants to attend i best start paying attention to some of these longshots ya'll are bring home!.. good work boys.

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  112. UNG...One Fing penny. Just poke my eyes out. At least XCO is getting a lift. Of all my natty guys, XCO is the most leveraged to the price of gas.

    AONE really trying to break out.

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  113. Mark - You asked me a very key question a day or two ago re when I would be willing to admit I'm wrong on this recent advance (after I made some 'dumb' money / 'smart' money dumbass comment). Believe I have a better answer for you and it comes from a paraphrase of a comment Carter Worth made on one of the cnbc segments: "You're wrong when the averaging mechanism tells you you're wrong."

    When the H&S failed back in early Jul 09, the price 'pushed up' the upper bollinger band. Now the U-BB is coming in to meet the 200DMA. If the price is able to push up the U-BB, like in mid-July 09 then I'm wrong.

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  114. Kyle- Excellent! Thank you. Even I can understand that.

    I have to admit to an itchy trigger finger here though. I've made huge gains the past 2 weeks. On a relative basis for what one should expect in returns for any given year in the market, I'm well above that now.

    However, I keep thinking back to last summer, and my positions are really JUST coming off the bottom and have lots of room to run.

    I think I need to man up here.

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  115. Mark - See if this link works...

    http://www.screencast.com/t/YzM0Yzlm

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  116. Anybody have an idea why crude has lagged today or should I even be asking?

    Seems there's always at least one indicator moving in the wrong direction and so I'm about to make a rule that says the market cannot move up unless at least one indicator is in opposition, and vice-versa.

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  117. Works great Kyle, thanks. I could almost picture it in my head. Lots of free space there ;)

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  118. Crude....was thinking the same thing. Storage is high and seasonal demand was soft. As you know, I'll watch it like a hawk.

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  119. I'm just not seeing anything. I chose well, but locked in profits instead of taking the additional risk of holding longer, and so didn't make big bucks.

    Taking my $930 and giving up for the day

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  120. After 3 nice big updays caution and profit taking are the words to repeat.....


    Any of you trade ree or mcp?
    rare earth minerals.

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  121. shark - Ur good man... missed those..BORN?

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  122. Strong close coming. Imbalances on the buy side across the board...

    Random sample...AA/BAC/DVN/JPM/CSCO/MS/APC/XOM...you name it...

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  123. Must have been a lot of MOC orders for SPY. HOD and still filling.

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  124. If what we saw in REDF is not a two-day fluke, then it shouldn't retrace 50% of its recent gain. And if it does, then this advance was most likely a fluke. Therefore, I placed a sell stop limit order at $2.45/$2.40 for the 1000 shares I purchased at $2.05.

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  125. REDF / NIB - tof Thank You for the tip on REDF like WOW!!! NIB - my best advancer for the day

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  126. As I hypothesized last weekend, the rally in UNG has indeed started this week, one week earlier than last year. I am sure plenty of smart traders shorted UNG in early August. At which point will they start panicking and taking profits? Probably in high 6's in UNG. So we should see $7 in no time...

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  127. MCP - I've been watching this one, seems promising but haven't done much serious DD.

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