Monday, September 6, 2010

9/7/10 Rocket 88/ Tuesday Game Plan



Here's the ultimate 'David' scenario, which happens to be my best guess at this point:

(a) US indexes gap up Tuesday morning, prompting faithful subjects of Oibara TK to begin the ritual of portfolio seppuku. Coincidentally, all of David's sell-stops are triggered, a symbolic transfer of funds into the coffers of the Agnostic Trader. REDF in particular jumps another 15%, signaling the end of bull possession.

(b) NGas prices count down to the sounds of Ike Turner's Rocket 88.

(c) At the point where the Oibara's own portfolio is decapitated, the indexes sell off- violently. Here is where I hope to pull up at the curb to pick up TZA for another one-night stand.

80 comments:

  1. Thx 2nd.

    That doesn' sound good. I may have my account set up wrong. I'll make some changes and try posting again later.
    port2013

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  2. I don't think it's your account. It probably has to do with the links to youtube or some other site. A few of my own comments have ended up in the Spam folder.

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  3. Here's a little rocket fuel:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/obama-to-unveil-50-bln-infrastructure-plan-2010-09-06

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  4. To be honest, I don't know if the news means we rocket up, or rocket down- but it's unlikely to stay flat. We'll find out in about 5 minutes...

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  5. Alright, so I'm wrong. ES opens flat.

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  6. tomorrow am will be interesting.

    see ya early with double espresso

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  7. Nikkei set to end the morning session in (slightly) positive territory.

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  8. Has anyone watched 'The American?' I just read Roger Ebert's review, and it sounds quite good. I would ignore the 'User Reviews,' except for the ones that indicate the movie is a throwback to seventies filmmaking.

    It may actually be more along the lines of 'The Conversation,' one of the best to come out of that era.

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  9. 2nd- Just catching up...I don't understand "ports" comments in spam. Is that here?

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  10. Common sense tells me Obama's plan is a positive: not only does it address unemployment, it addresses what we've all known for a long time- our roads/bridges/sewer lines/etc are all in need of serious repair. $50b spent on infrastructure beats $150b thrown at banks hands down. The plan itself may prove to be faulty, but the idea is sound.

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  11. 'port' tried to post a couple of comments earlier and watched them disappear. That's happened to me before. In fact, if you search the Spam folder, you'll find two of my comments about SF's plan to charge entry/exit fees during rush hour.

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  12. How did we get a spam folder?

    Agree on the common sense take. And like you said, it's implementation is key. Can they keep BS politics out of it? I'm not hopeful. Picture roads in contested districts being repaved AGAIN.

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  13. This CNN article seemed pretty balanced to me...

    http://www.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/09/06/economy.obama.democrats/index.html?hpt=T2

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  14. Its just more shovel ready projects feeding the unions high wages at the expense of a trillion unborn future americans.

    The ONLY thing that can actually solve it without a complete collapse is to end the trade and budget deficits, and turn them to surpluses for the next 150 years.

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  15. CB- Agreed. Even the Admin. says it's not going to "help" until 2011. Weak. I thought Shark was crazy, but maybe BO is a one term prez.

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  16. In the short run....2 day's maybe...not enough bulls.

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  17. Still testing and dissappearing. How about now?

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  18. Thank you, 2nd_ave, for good wishes to my portfolio! At this point, however, I am trying out the strategy of using stops instead of "buy-and-hope" strategy of setting limit orders (which I am using only with NG now, which I think is close to its valuation bottom). So a spike up on Monday would only be useful to me in the sense that it would allow me to pull up my stops a little more and ensure a little more "semi-guaranteed" profit.

    I have just placed one more sell stop limit order, at $4.10/$4.09 for 1000 shares of HEK that I reloaded at $4.17. (I would have placed it at $4.15/$4.14, right under yesterday's low of the day, but I bought HEK at Scottrade, which requires stops to be at least 0.10 below the last price).

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  19. Port- I'm seeing your comments. Not sure about the spam issue 2nd is talking about. Nothing I set up.

    GL tomorrow guys. Like VB said...it should be interesting.

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  20. David- WTF??? Stops at Scott trade? That's Fing crazy!! Why would they care? Comish either way.

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  21. Re: Gold [Short]/ Adding EDZ/ UUP newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4533 comments) on Tue, 09/07/2010 - 06:50 #68621
    Bev- You read Friday's 'pitch' correctly and just hit a triple.

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  22. http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/trading_diary.php

    CT is usually a step behind, so publishing 'A Ray Of Sunshine' hours prior to a gap-down open doesn't surprise me. However, his comments are still encouraging from a longer-term perspective.

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  23. Some info on Art Cashin's 17.6 year cycle theory...

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/08/26-of-last-88-trading-days-have-been-90.html

    Another 7 years of nowhere?

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  24. Landry-

    Random Thoughts:

    It goes up for a while.

    It goes down for a while.

    For the most part though, the market has gone sideways as of late.

    As I've been preaching, as long as the big blue arrow points sideways, as trend followers there's not much to do.

    Maybe the boys of summer will return this week and do something to get this market out of it's range.

    Futures are weak pre-market but off of their worst levels.

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  25. another long term view (1870-2020?)...

    http://dshort.com/charts/SP-Composite-regression-charts.html?SP-Composite-real-regression-to-trend

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  26. I'll take some more redf on a dip

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  27. Nothing interesting here. What's up with X?

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  28. VB- Did you read the link I posted about REDF? Very strong opinions on BOTH sides.

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  29. REE- Nice. To late for me though.

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  30. SPY- 109.57 is where I have support.

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  31. hi Mark,

    Yes, I did read it. Thanks - I am thinking it is a good day trade, so adding a little more now

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  32. anyone still playing apwr?

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  33. "European stocks fell following news reports that banks there may have more risky government debt on their books than was disclosed during "stress tests" earlier this year. That could mean fees from regulators and more capital-raising by the banks to bolster their balance sheets."

    Moral of the story is not to won too much government debt b/c it's risky and you may have to pay government fees?

    Pretty weak if you ask me, more like a perfect excuse to take profits in a range bound market.

    Wonder how much longer will the market remain range bound?

    Hope I'm wrong, but I expect they'll walk us back down for a while.

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  34. Ike Turner....

    I think this guy gets a bad rap...SURPRISE! (not)

    Ike was a musical and business genius. Tina was a singing bimbo. But in the upside-down world of early-eighties revisionism combined with the new awareness that womens issues were receiving, it was he who ws branded the monster and she some sort of uber-deserving long-suffering person of rightousness.

    It was all marketing bullshit.

    If it weren't for Ike Turned, Emma-mae Bullock would have spent her life cleaning toilets and changing sheets in a Motel 6 someplace off a highway in rural Tennesee. And if Ike smacked her around every once in awhile, it was to get her to stop eating malamars and to get her fat ass back up on 'da stage!

    And 'dat is 'da straight-up dope Homeeeeee!!

    (i'm just kidding about all this btw, it's a bit of comic relief)

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  35. AONE- Look at my little battery maker go :)!

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  36. ALTI - speaking of batteries...was mentioned on cnbc this morn...

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  37. Ah, so CNBC is plugging energy alchemists today? Maybe I should subscribe...

    Infrastructure - WDC is all hat, no cattle.

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  38. AONE- Like I said last week, it could be good until the 50 @ 8.72.

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  39. When in doubt, which would be an apt description of the zone I'm in, do nothing.

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  40. 2nd - Agree. At end of Feb, looks like SPX made it to 1110 or so then there was a shake-out ('kangaroo tail') down to 1090 or so before the blast higher.

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  41. Well, Scottrade had screwed me a little on HEK. I wanted to place a sell stop at $4.15, but had to place it at $4.10, and it was hit this morning at $4.09, stopping me out of my recent reentry at $4.17 for an $80 loss. I have just placed a buy stop limit for these 1000 shares at $4.20/$4.21. I am practicing taking several "stabs" at an idea before "nailing it."

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  42. BQI - Looks to my untrained eyes the move may be over????

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  43. "Scottrade had screwed me a little on HEK."

    Hopefully it tickled.

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  44. It depends. They are going to try to sell the company. Is it worth more than 56 cents?

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  45. Amazing how old news regurgitated can move the market, wonder what's their real purpose of dredging up this particular mud?

    If they're really after controlling currency ratios then they should follow China's lead and just peg currencies.

    Either way, free trade is stymied.

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  46. Oil from sand!!! - Are we really that hard-up yet or are we just playing phunnie trading games? Maybe it's not worth $0.56...

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  47. Expanding on this, let's think about the line of crap we're lead to believe; we're supposed to be angry about sending hard-earned USD's to the middle east in trade for energy b/c it funds terrorism when most of our imported oil comes from Canada! Where the heck are the Canadian's getting this oil, from sand??? If that was the case, then why is BQI trading under $1 and trying to sell themselves.

    I smell the odor of rat.

    So, now we want to make our cars run on batteries powered by some magical energy source that simply doesn't exist. I haven't looked yet but it wouldn't surprise me if Eveready battery company's bunny didn't hop off the scale this morning on this imaginary notion.

    We cannot even execute on infrastructure projects, don't have enough discipline to stop raiding social security, and we're supposed to believe our cars will soon be powered by a non-existent energy source???

    Sounds like a 60's rock song about a magic carpet, somebodies blowing smoke up our asses.

    Geezzzzeeeee!

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  48. Just looked at my account and saw that in the last hour I got stopped out of TBT at $31.70, for 300 shares I purchased at $31.10. Will think a little tonight about the right level at which to place the buy stop limit order for it, so as to reenter in case today was just a shakeout during an uptrend.

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  49. Well, I just placed a buy stop limit for 300 shares of TBT at $32/$32.02, just above the high price for today.

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  50. David- What's Scottrades explanation regarding stop limits?

    Even though crude has recovered most of it's losses, my energy plays haven't.

    How's this for setting the bar low for today? I had hoped to hold 50% of Fridays gains. So far so good.

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  51. Top Step video today. SPX 1300 EOY.

    http://mrtopstep.com/2010/09/07/mrtopstep-back-to-work-in-september-but-not-many-seem-to-be-back/

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  52. Capitulation day for CRYP??????

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  53. PXP catching a little bid here with volume.

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  54. Pulling XCO. Might get it a tad lower.

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  55. Bidding HUN @ 9.52. Take a look. I think I see the MM finger prints on that move.

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  56. PXP finally broke out of it's day's range.

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  57. Really interesting battle going on in HUN @ 9.52. Hope I got the right side.

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  58. Extra shares of HUN off @ 9.51. Something's going on here I don't understand.

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  59. Looking at my crappy chart it seems we're headed for at least 1070...

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  60. I saw Hillary at Chelsy's wedding the other day and to my surprise, she was wearing a dress! Not to worry though, I'm sure she was wearing her pants-suit underneath.

    Speaking of Hillary, here's an idea; why doesn't Obama assign her the task of managing foreign affairs while he concentrates a little effort on the domestic economy?

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  61. BQI - Closed on it's high of day.....

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  62. didn't do anything today....is vol lite due to the upcoming Jewish holidays (thurs)?

    anyone starting to make changes to their investment methodologies anticipating a "new normal" in daily volume? the only thing i have done so far is to reduce my normal position size, and i'm going to keep it there until we have a couple of months of volume at a higher level. it's too easy to get whip-sawed nowadays.

    in an informal pool at the orcl alum grp INFA topped the list of acquisition targets

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  63. LZ - This one appears to have done quite well lately which lends credibility to reports LZ is involved with developing the new GF-5 EPA mandated engine oil requirements.

    GF-5 is speculated to use 300-500ppm of molybdenum in the formulation as a replacement friction modifier, along with the newly proposed General Motors Dexos-1,2 motor oil requirement.

    This should be interesting to watch...

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  64. I see that SGG did hit my sell limit order at $60 today for 100 shares I purchased at $50. I decided to sell it at $60 because it is now near the upper trendline (according to my naked eye estimation). I'll try to reload it when it will be near its lower upward-sloping trendline.

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  65. hey guys - back from vaca to see the bears are spreading fear again on the usual fronts...this time it's europe again.

    i'm probably dumb doing this but i'm still staying long on everything i held last week. i saw no reason for the market to be down today on anything other than profit taking.

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  66. cp,

    while on the subject of apparel (hillary), has anyone bought the Men's Spanx. just curious if real men will wear a girdle!

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  67. welcome back tof, hope you enjoyed your vacation. Was this the wedding? sorry, I read bits and pcs here and don't capture it all.

    I added to redf today on the dip.

    thanks for confirming you held - I need emotional support on this one.

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  68. vb - I've got several of those, they make my chest puff out and you can't tell I'm wearing one even with an extra-tight shirt to show off my puffy chest!

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