Tuesday, September 7, 2010

9/8/10 Sister TZA



Well I tried to trade it Tuesday, but I found myself under duress
So I set my sights on Wednesday and I got the position undressed
I ain't ready for the altar but I do agree there's times
When an ultra short can be a friend of mine


I was ready to pull the trigger on TZA pre-market when the phone rang at work. That was the start of a day of distractions at the day job, and the end of that trade.

109 comments:

  1. Nikkei just slid another 40 points (now down -190) to 9035 (-2.07%).

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  2. It's always dicey when you show an employee the door...

    http://money.cnn.com/2010/09/07/news/economy/orszag_bush_tax_cuts/index.htm

    Ouch.

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  3. hey vb - no, the wedding is in jan...can't wait! and as for REDF...it does take some stomach to hold it huh? it's all over the place. i'm gonna wait for the RSI 14 to fall below 40 to consider selling...

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  4. Looking back at the comments today, sorry for posting like silly child. Short story, only added to JPM @ 38.22.

    Hope you had a nice va-ca TOF. Liked your "Good lord, what about the European banks though?", comment. GL.

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  5. Oh man. I'm not sure I can handle all the BS that's going to happen in this election cycle, from both sides. I'm inching closer to the ledge. What a load of crap.

    Straight up trading comment. I'm not happy with the weakness in the energy sector.

    Didn't hold my 50% retracement goal for the day. Maybe 65%.

    We'll see.

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  6. Here's another test post.

    Let's see, today I sold my AUY shares premarket at $10.35 and saw it run on up to the $10.50's. I also have 2 Jan 2012 115 strike GLD calls that are underwater about $2.10 per share so today I sold 2 Nov 133 strikes for $1.05 each. That gives me a chance to work off some of the premium plus I'll still make money if we get a moonshot in gold.

    I still have lots of other stuff in my longterm accounts and I'm underwater on most of it but most of these positions are not that big - C, BAC, EPM, GMO, ETFC, HAFC, INTC (bigger position), HAL, and XOM. I was already short 2 Oct 60 strikes against my XOM from Friday. Not sure if I want to put in an order to buy it back or just let it ride. Today I sold 3 SEP 30 strikes against my HAL shares and I probably won't buy those back unless its close to $30 on expiry.

    I also have Jan 2011 IWM 63/65 strangles and Dec 110/111 SPY strangles. IWM is close to breakeven and I'm up a smidge on the SPY. I sleep better at night with strangles for some reason. My biggest problems with strangles is my lack of patience. Also, I'll sell out one side on a big rally/drop day but I won't put a stop loss on the other side and I'll loose out there. We'll see how it goes.

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  7. Just did a quick chart on XOM, plus I'm waiting to see if my previous post disappears. I like Bill's comment on XOM being cheap, especially for a long term account and my purchase price is $59 something. I just put in a GTC order to buy the calls back at $1.15 which would be about $58.90 print for XOM. Next time I'll go out 3 or 4 months and sell a higher strike call if I get the chance.

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  8. Port- Came through fine. I still don't understand your comments going into a spam folder I know nothing about. Maybe 2nd cane clear that issue.

    Thanks for the update.

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  9. Yeah, that's where 2nd said my previous comments went. That might be something he can see since he set up the blog. Seems to be working now though.

    Good trading tomorrow.

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  10. To you too Port. I have to admit, energy is a tell for me, and the hit I took today was discouraging.

    At the open boys...

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  11. Leaning long newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4534 comments) on Wed, 09/08/2010 - 09:10 #68710
    Redeploying 25% of cash to a few longs. Should the indexes move up from here, I don't think they will allow reentries at last week's lows.

    BAC/CSCO/INTC/WFC/XOM @ pre-market averages of 13.28/20.71/18.11/25.04/60.62.

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  12. PAL is, I think, about to get very good and it's buyable above 3.60....Do not sell today if it does break out.

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  13. sold my RBCN calls at about a 67% gain and sold my RBCN stock at $27.8 that I bought at $24.9. got scared by mini crash in CREE...CREE ain't looking so good.

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  14. Bought some CREE at $52.3.

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  15. Mark - there have been some downgrades of the sector which is affecting CREE. i'm long as a trade...

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  16. S and P just a hair below 1100

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  17. this new equipment tax credit...which companies should this benefit?

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  18. "STAMFORD -- Police are seeking a Uzi-wielding gunman and his accomplice, who allegedly held up four men behind a Spruce Street home early Monday.

    The robbery occurred at 2:35 a.m., when the suspects approached the men in a rear parking lot of a multi-family home at 153 Spruce St. asking for the location of an after-hours club, according to Stamford Police Lt. Jim Matheny, head of the department's Major Crimes Unit.

    One of the men drew an Uzi-type assault weapon and demanded money, while the other collected the money in a cap, Matheny said."

    Some CTA's will do ANYTHING when it comes to client aquisition:)

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  19. Bought a few OCT $50 Calls on CREE at $5.4.

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  20. i think this new equipment credit could benefit CREE...

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  21. AONE- Ran right up to yesterday's high and pulled back a little. One more day of this and I'll take it off.

    JPM- Very nice push. Now a 2/3 position.

    Energy still having a hard time. At least mine.

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  22. looks like i was a little early on CREE...we'll see how the day transpires.

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  23. picked up some more TRE @ 6.30

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  24. my suspicion is that this is the capitulation day on CREE...volume is very heavy and my first thought is this closes near even.

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  25. I think we seriously squeeze the shorts prior to the next leg down- I would like to see Capitulation.

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  26. PAL - Wow, I'm surprised, this one just keeps on a truckin' (insert Grateful Dead reference here).

    Good call sharkie!

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  27. CREE/VECO - I saw that, what the heck is going on there, the equipment tax credit should help them I would think...

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  28. JB- There is one good trader over at SOH that likes TRE.

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  29. REE continues climb; ENER spike

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  30. INTC/AMAT - Equipment tax credit should help these as well shouldn't it? WTF???

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  31. mark - yeah, dutch and i were emailing about it back and forth last week and over the weekend....it's still somewhat of a wanky deal but for me it's worth taking a flier on.

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  32. my take on the proposed equip tax credit: best case it may pull forward some orders, like the home buyers tax credit did, but in the long run capital outlays won't change....just my 2 cents.

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  33. Martin Feldstein said equipment tax credit won't have much real impact as the interest rates are so low now...

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1586694311&play=1

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  34. Equipment tax credit - Should be a positive for employment figures, capital equipment manufacturers and manufacturing in general...

    So while Congress bickers for months over the proposal, manufacturing waits before placing new orders, which pushes demand and employment into the future?

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  35. PAL - Can she take and hold the 200DMA? We're gonna find out today maybe...

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  36. To add to JB and Kyle's take....from Rosenberg....

    These companies already have record cash on hand.
    They don't need loans and the tax break won't help them as there is no reason to add equipment or spend the cash when employment/demand isn't there.
    It's more pushing on a string.

    The fricking Obama people don't seem to understand IT'S THE PEOPLE THAT NEED TAX RELIEF AND JOBS/EMPLOYMENT PROGRAMS, NOT CORPORATIONS.
    Without customers it doesn't matter what corporations do. See Intel.....
    FF

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  37. ok, ok i get it. i was wrong on CREE...jeez look at that thing dive. i still think it's capitulation but i was a knife catcher here.

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  38. GMO - $3.25 looks like an important barrier/hurdle to me.

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  39. thanks sharkie, got on board with pal at 3.60. Just took some profits on redf.

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  40. Okay, maybe the equipment tax credit is unimportant/ineffective. INTC claims it costs them $1B more to build a US fab than many other places, so assuming they're situation is representative, Obama needs to look at how to solve this.

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  41. DBB - Broke out several sessions ago and retested the 200DMA yesterday.

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  42. CPSL - Will this one ever clear the moving average congestion? It's only a matter of time IMO.

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  43. c'mon CREE...redeem me.

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  44. I'm in the spur demand via reduced tax rates, reduced gov't spending (eliminate the crowd out effect) and the implementation of narrow/targeted regulation camp.

    The real problem policy makers have is that they don't actually know HOW to use tools to get an economy out of a depression, they only real example they have, the '30's, was "resolved" by WW II.

    So to me it is meaningless to toss 50b here, 50b there at a multi trillion $ economy.

    now back to your regularly scheduled program.

    bought cree @51.30, bearish flag in process be dammed

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  45. CADC - Too funny, MM loves screwing with me. Wish he'd take it under $3...

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  46. What's up with Visa(V)?

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  47. now here is innovation i can relate to:

    http://tinyurl.com/29pr528

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  48. shark should i add more at 3.67?

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  49. I'm not pretending to know half of what's going on because I don't, but consider the argument some have claiming Corporate "America" is collectively more in debt now than ever before.

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  50. vb,

    Nah. Let it ride.

    I would much rather see someone ride the position right with half the amount than take too-soon (and too-small) profits on too-big an amount.

    After dithering around in a range for 3 months, I gotta believe the breakout in PAL is going to be worth more in a few days or next week.

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  51. I have just caused a complete collapse in TBT. :) I bought 200 shares at $32.17 and immediately TBT had a cascading series of drops down to $32, of the strength that could be expected only after major announcements. Take a look at the real-time TBT chart, it's really interesting now.

    This morning, my buy stop limit for 100 shares of TBT was triggered at $32, so now I have 300 shares total. I places a sell stop limit for them at $31.35/$31.35, just below yesterday's low.

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  52. Chicken,

    Behold BQI...so much for the move having been done eh?

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  53. Some other activity for me today: I got stopped out at $26.99 out of the 200 shares of RBCN I purchased at $25.40 a few days ago.

    Also, I got stopped out at $17.90 out of the 300 shares of INTC that I purchased at $18.06 a few days ago.

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  54. Well, what the heck... Bought 200 more shares of TBT at $31.92, now that that crash seems to have finished. Added these shares to the sell stop limit order at $31.35/$31.34.

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  55. BQI - I'm frequently WRONG sharkie, you know that!

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  56. PAL - Here's to wishing I had the nads to add last month around $3...

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  57. Yep, I Fing new it, and it cost me 500 bucks.

    AONE off @ 7.62 for a 7.8% return.

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  58. I'm going to close DELL today on the "news".

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  59. Ok, added a few CREE $55 Sept Calls at $.72 for shits and giggles in the event we see a rebound going into the close.

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  60. DELL off @ 12.66- 5.55% return.

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  61. AONE is now off 9% from the HOD.

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  62. JPM holding right where it should today. Let Obama finish and we'll see what happens.

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  63. CREE - I felt the urge to take a position earlier but the price just keeps falling...

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  64. CP- Did you see if CADC finally reported?

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  65. CREE- I can't find a "logical" entry point. Doesn't help I used to have it back in the low 20's.

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  66. Man, how far are they going to drive AONE down??

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  67. CADC - No report yet as far as I know, but it should be a good one based upon their pre-announcement and all the new contracts in their press releases.

    I'm thinking nobody trusts Chinese small caps and they're not likely to be the first thing on many trader's minds.

    But then, consider that I'm also not too enthusiastic over oil sands either... like some folks appear to be.

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  68. CREE - I was thinking $50 looked logical but I'd have to look the chart over more carefully before making a move.

    Prices have backed off this afternoon some, inspiration blunted by media event or just another mid-day "I stood up too quickly" dizzy headfake?

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  69. vb consider buying some MGM resorts intl right here and now.

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  70. We better break through 1105 soon.

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  71. here is the poll from the orcl alum grp:

    http://tinyurl.com/2854egt

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  72. mark - i think we break through the 50DMA soon. i'm skeptical of the skeptics!

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  73. Con. Credit... -3.6B, est. was -5.25B...Last revised to -1.0B from -1.3B.

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  74. TOF- I'm not sure why our moving averages are so different. I have us well above the 50 on SPY.

    Friday's close was 110.89. Can we tag it in the last hour???

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  75. this would be a bad time/area for the spx to stall out, again..come on baby!

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  76. JB- I was just yelling the same thing! Looks like no one is listening....

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  77. CRAP! guess they can't hear us bro.....just like when i'm yelling at the tv when the 49ers are on, they can't hear me either

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  78. T's still weak though...I guess a gap would be more nasty.

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  79. I know it's none of my business, but the 200 rejection for PAL today would have me worried. GL!!

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  80. "Economists further scale back U.S. growth outlook"

    Okay, that's what took some wind out of our sails.

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  81. INTC trying like hell to break out of the daily range....OK, I'm praying!!!

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  82. If you draw a line from the April high to the August high, you'll notice where the descending barrier is. Buying dried up when we didn't cross the line.

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  83. JPM just broke what I consider intra-day support.

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  84. Going long again in the buy-and-hold half- using a more conservative fund, however: OAKBX.

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  85. I might see if I can get a good price in XCO at the close.

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  86. Re: Leaning long/ Going long in the buy-and-hold half as well newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4536 comments) on Wed, 09/08/2010 - 15:58 #68750 (in reply to #68710)
    Going long again in the buy-and-hold half- using a more conservative fund, however: OAKBX.

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  87. Ain't going to happen today...



    imbalance Summary: $46,736,232 x $122,002,895

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  88. A second consecutive day of loss for me.

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  89. man, i had a frustrating day. my accounts all went up pretty nicely, thanks again because of SPY, STT, REDF, and MDY. But my whole position in CREE was down without any bounce and it frustrated the hell out of me. I should be thankful for being in the green but that one just bugs me.

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  90. Holding TBT overnight. At some point, the way Obama is printing and spending, it won't matter that the economy is weak or not, because creditors will see that default is the only option for the U.S.

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  91. "Obama firm: Don't extend tax breaks for wealthiest"

    This sounds like a problem for bulls going forward, unless somehow it's good news for civilian employment.

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  92. TBT - Yea, that makes sense at this juncture. Have you considered TMV by chance?

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  93. V - Well this one must've been down on consumer credit contraction, personal BK's are up dramatically?

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  94. TMV doesn't have enough volume for me to trade it

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  95. TMV is a 3x, so your position size can be somewhat smaller... Would it not also be correct to anticipate wider moves on the long end as well?

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  96. Then again, 500k vs 8M shares traded is quite a differential.

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