'High Stakes Poker' newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4755 comments) on Fri, 10/15/2010 - 06:55 #71721 http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/tradi...'The markets are starting to get that warm fuzzy feeling normally associated with another round of morphine-strength quantitative easing from the Fed. Further injections of money into the system, however, appear futile, given the results of the last $1 trillion splurge. And the glaring example of how a similar zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) failed to lift Japan out of the doldrums for almost two decades. Talk of QE may be largely posturing by the Fed ahead of the November G-20 summit on exchange rates. 'The importance of this next summit should not be under-estimated. Convincing China and other major exporters to accept a substantial upward revaluation of their currencies will not be easy. And the tools necessary to force such an adjustment are largely un-tested. But failure would inevitably result in a trade war, with tit-for-tat imposition of punitive import tariffs, or a currency war, with competing devaluations. Either would generate massive global instability. The stakes are high. And this is one outcome the G-20 cannot afford to get wrong.'High stakes poker has also been an apt analogy for the trading environment. I don't think we'll see another period like 2007-11 in my lifetime. High stakes mistakes/near-miss takes/totally off-the-mark takes all over the place. The number of overnight gaps and intraday reversals has to be a record of some kind.
2nd - Thanks for your comment yday re. being "over at the FAS/FAZ table trying to decide if I want to make a play..." Believe you captured what this jazz is all about perfectly. I took a turn at the 'VXX table' in the morning and then moved over to the 'FAS table' near EOD based partly on your very good analogy.
My PAL long is getting CRUSHED in the pre-market.......Not that any trades are happening. I am planning to punt at the open.
Mad Market> Close 1185? newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4756 comments) on Fri, 10/15/2010 - 09:23 #71732 Yesterday's sell-off may have been enough to shake out the weak hands, at least in the banking sector. What exactly do we think the state attorneys general are going to do- decimate HB&B? I don't think so. If I had to guess, the sell-off in banks was a distraction, and they end up taking the indexes to new highs.
Punted 4.62 BABBBBBYYYYYFucking made money yeah.We're getting a Shake Shack in Westport.Civilization Baby!
BAC/WFC- reopening @ 12.46/24.50 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4757 comments) on Fri, 10/15/2010 - 09:36 #71733 For reasons stated earlier...
Adding JPM @ 37.74 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4758 comments) on Fri, 10/15/2010 - 09:49 #71735 Sensing panic in the banking sector.
Hi 2nd.What Bernamke said this morning was very, very bearish....making clear that QE2 was purely in response to a total lack of jobs recovery etc.He lied about his inflation ideas, but that's a part of the show.Metals getting killed right now not sure why.The punt defined = Did you notice the way pro's painted the tape by buying PAL up in the seconds before the open bidding it up to the very attractive price of 4.63 or so?Me too. I knew what this was and slammed in an 4.60 limit order guaranteeing that, if my stock sold it would be profitable by a nickle say.About half the order got filled at the limit, and half at 4.62.It's a play shere you don't watch and wait to see what the price does......You kick the ball downfield with some kind of limit order and hope it gets filled well.Kinda looks to me like a several day selloff coming in stocks so be wary of getting long....everyone else is:)
ESLR selling off smartly...a POTENTIAL opportunity developing if things get emotional
Banks nearing 52-wk lows... newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4759 comments) on Fri, 10/15/2010 - 10:04 #71739 The ultimate divergence as the indexes approach 52-wk highs...
ANO also correcting....I love this one at 1.20 but it aint getting there.
V off @ 77.40. I'll explain latter.
Re: Banks nearing 52-wk lows... newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4760 comments) on Fri, 10/15/2010 - 10:21 #71743 (in reply to #71742)It could be toast, BH. I just don't think so. (a) I have no desire to be chasing anything right now.(b) On the other hand, the 'blood in the streets' selling in banks has me buying.It's really kind of a strange feeling.
BAC @ 11.87
well its good to see my oe short position, which is huge, do well. Gold is peeling back hard.FYI - NLS is having some big volume today.
Mark,No need to explain. You sold V good and now it's dropping like a frigging rock:)It's totally self-explanatory.
BAC - Wow, it's been a while, $12 handle yesterday and $11 today! Will I get a second chance @ $3?It's cold in here and consumer sentiment sucks, Bernanke still hasn't thrown any wood on the fire?
BAC off @ 11.84....NEXT!
Stinky on MGM @ 10.87.
BAC back on @ 11.86
talking a walk on the short side: short NTAP and RHT, plus doubling up on NTAP w/Nov 55 puts....look out below, I hope.
XCO @ 15.30
looks like a perfect entry on XCO Mark - good luck!
Shanghai sure had a nice party last night.
PXP @ 27.92
Bought a few GLD December 31 $130 Puts at $3.5. One of these days I'll get these options calls correct. I really feel like GLD is set to pull back hard, but I don't know crap about commodities. I'm basing it on what I think is a blow off top and my belief that things are actually stronger than people think, which will prompt removal of stimulus/QE
My take on Gold today is this: if the confirmation of additional quantitative easing by Bernanke results in GLD being off $1, then maybe there is too much froth in that ETF? Just like going up on bad news means all of the bad news is priced in, then shouldn't the reverse be true? As I speak, though, GLD looks like it has reversed. So maybe I should be giving it more than a day?
Long Polymet PLM
Mark- WTF. Glad to see you bought BAC back. This one may actually be a 'No kidding, I bought it at 11.86 in 2010' situations...
GE - Headed back to ~$14.50?
PLM - I've been wanting some of that one...
Dang..Looks like I played it too cute with V. I thought it would get taken down a little with the COF report. I was "only" hoping for a 1% pull back.That's what I deserve for waking up @ 4 am :)
Mark - Good work on the BAC... Panic feast.
Control of ball currently slipping off bears fingertips.
The hip hip a hop, you don't stop the rockin' to the bang bang boogie...
CADC - Technically a sell @ $3.88
"I played it too cute with V"We'll keep it a secret, Victoria secret...
I hear Bernanke lays claim to a huge package.
took 1/2 YHOO off at 16.66.you're funny today CP...happy Friday!
2nd- Just trying to be flexible with my entry points. That time I got "flexed" out of 150 bucks. :)
CLNE has a nice 5 month long basing pattern here.GL!!
the weekly chart on IMMR sure looks like a cup and handle, no? man i love that chart and company.
Added a regular (not 12/31) Dec $129 put on GLD at $2.41. Now I have 6 total puts on GLD for a total of $2,100. Let's see how it plays out.
TRID - Could be a good short?
jb - Top of the mornin' to ya! (or y'all's, if applicable)
Come on mofo! Crash Gold! Is it wrong to cheerlead?
flying solo today CP, no ya'lls here...:)
GMO - Current price is kinda strange when I stop to think about how the Hope mine will be starting production next summer....
IMMR - Yea, it does look like a C&H. Next week might provide a good entry if it plays out the way it looks?
Re: Gold About to Stall/Crash (cont.)? newSubmitted by teamonfuego (2209 comments) on Fri, 10/15/2010 - 13:42 #71788 (in reply to #71776)Jack - I think the odds of a long term top in gold being in place are low. I believe my trade should be a short term one. I have believed for a while now that the global economy is stronger than most people think. While gold bulls believe this is supportive of further demand for the metal, at some point demand falls off as prices rise. Having recently shopped for an engagement ring, I can tell you that the price of gold has made rings a lot less affordable. In addition to this, a stronger global economy generally speaking means an easing or pullback of economic stimulus. We have seen this in Europe and a lot of the stimulus in the US will be going away starting in q4 2010. Additionally, countries like Canada, Australia, China, and India have been gradually increasing rates to ward off inflation. I think a lot of gold bulls are focusing more on the sluggish growth in the US as a reason for gold prices to continue to go up but a good portion of the rest of the world is experiencing rapid economic growth and instilling anti-stimulative policies. So I think there is a case for Gold putting in a major top here if global growth continues to accelerate. If I had to bet (well, I guess I am betting) I think any pullback will still be a temporary one, though, and a prelude to a final thrust higher which is coming soon (if it hasn't already occurred). Given my gold short position I'm not opposed to this being the top.
I dumped out of PLM at a small loss.When yer wrong yer wrong.
COF might be interesting @ 36.78.
I get that PLM seems to be making an angle against the new uptrend....It's merely that I was early and wanted to get out and reconsider. Will wait for signs of actual bullishness in this one.
I also like the basing pattern in X. Maybe around 42?
Consumers are still not spending Submitted by DavidV (37 comments) on Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:26 #71799This is the most forward-looking indicator of whether QE2 will work:http://www.consumerindexes.com/index.htmlBond yields have already been driven down A LOT. They have probably priced in most of QE2 already, and maybe much more than that. Remember what happened in December 2008, when the traders started front-running the Fed's desire to start QE1? Bonds soared and then crashed. But that's a different topic. All I wanted to say was that the drop in bond yields haven't motivated the consumers to start spending. In fact, the Weighted Composite Index is at a multi-month low, approaching the "flash crash" low of 90 achieved on November 2008. I suggest we all keep watching this index, especially after QE2 is announced, since it will give us a very early warning as to whether QE2 is working or not. This index leads the major economic indices by 3-6 months, and once those indices show that consumers are not cooperating with Bernanke and are still not spending, the market may just collapse as the faith in Fed's power will be lost.
I think PLM is almost very buyable IF it makes the higher low I hope it's making. I'd love to have to buy this back today.
Shark -- great reflexes on your PAL trade! I thought your main strength is at looking at the charts, but finding the best intraday time to buy/sell is another invaluable skill! You can just make money intraday with that skill. :)As for the "opportunity" developing with ESLR, I believe the opportunity was two days ago, when it hit $1.09. Too bad I sold just 1/5 of my position. Should have sold it all...
I figgin can not believe V wouldn't give back just a little today. F'er.
Re: Gold About to Stall/Crash (cont.)? Submitted by DavidV (38 comments) on Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:39 #71801 (in reply to #71788)TOF, I totally share your sentiment here about gold having a major short-term pullback. That's why I sold 2/3 of my CEF over the last few days and loaded up with puts on FCX.I don't agree, however, about gold not doing well if the economy picks up. The velocity of money will increase greatly at that point and a huge inflation will result *automatically* because of the great expansion in the monetary base we had (the only thing that prevented inflation so far was a simultaneous collapse of the monetary velocity). The Fed will try to fight this inflation, but since there is no Volcker on board, they will not succeed soon, and so gold should do well during the first few years of the economic expansion.
Man, my biggest miss was siting here and trying to get into AMZN @ 100 and kept trying to cut a Fing penny in half.
S2 on MGM is 10.92. I might take a shot there today.
Kyle- I'm bored. Anything interesting on your screens?
placing a sell stop on my last bunch of CEF Submitted by DavidV (39 comments) on Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:47 #71803I already sold 1/3 of my CEF at $17.31 and 1/3 at $17.91, and now I am placing a sell stop limit at $17.60/$17.55 for the last 1/3. The 5-day intraday chart gives me the feeling that if $17.60 is violated, then the chances of the up move being over would be high.
Mark - Nothing man. I haven't done anything all day. Can't read anything here.
AMLP - No, take that back. I did add a bit to this MLP ETF. But that's it.
Thanks anyway Kyle. I do get to look forward to a soccer game tomorrow @ 8:00 am in friggin Fairfield.GREATTTTT.....
Adding to XCO @ 15.13.
man the financials are brutally bad. i have to imagine that a pullback is in the cards here. think about what we have had today/yesterday:*solid econ reports*blowout numbers from GOOGi suspect we drop to 1,150 before a resumption in the markets higher. either way, i refuse to go long anything here, including financials which look cheap on the surface. i would prefer waiting a little while longer on those and probably only go long JPM/USB/IBKC/GS because those are the strongest banks/financials
TOF- Please pick up line 3. GCI is on hold for you.
Re: last hour question - DZZ off at $8.64; DGZ off at $15.77 newSubmitted by teamonfuego (2211 comments) on Fri, 10/15/2010 - 15:37 #71813 (in reply to #71808)Alright, alright guys. I am taking your advice and closing all of my puts/long inverse ETFs on gold. Why? Because I'd rather just wait for a drop in my favorite stocks than messing with a thing I have no way of measuring other than my gut instinct.
Are bears fully loaded? Ready or not, here we go!?!?!
Mark - yeah i saw that drop in GCI...almost bought some but I usually do better waiting out a drop like this.
Taking a little more risk off the table: sold at $4.20 the remaining call on V, booking a $410 profit after commissions (the call was a "free ride", since the first call I sold has already covered the cost basis of both calls). 2nd_ave -- I owe you a drink. :)Also, I see MON went parabolic by the end of the day, and so I just sold at $56.16 the 100 shares I bought last week at $50, booking a profit of $610 after commissions. I am still short one November $50 put on MON, and if that put is assigned to me, then it will be another great automatic round trip on MON. :) However, I think the chance of that put expiring is about 101%...
Imbalances...BUY- CHK/SD/WFCSELL- C/BAC
alright i'm giving it a go again on the options. this time i'm buying a straddle on GS on the options that expire next Friday. I bought 6 of the $155 calls at $1.54 and 4 of the $150 Puts at $2.54. Let's see how this plays out.I also decided to go long GS for a quick trade at $151.17. So much for not going long anything...but I'd rather go long GS, which doesn't have the exposure the banks do to that foreclosure fiasco and with the increase in M&A recently I think their earnings will beat.
Somehow I have the feeling this banking fiasco is accidentally overblown on purpose, it's as good an excuse as they could manufacture on short notice.But then again, bankers just aren't innovative types unless pocket stuffing can be considered innovation.
Great close here. 4 fingers...At the BAR!!!
"Great close here."Definitely rates all of "71"
based on earnings alone, the S&P can easily be justified to be at 1,300. earnings across the board are better than expectations and expectations are about $82 this year and $95 for next year. Assuming 15 times this year's earnings equates to 1,240. That's pretty reasonable in my mind. If next year's estimates are hit and the p/e is 15 then that's a S&P 500 of 1,425.
Hopped back into SPY, STT, MGM before the close. STT finally closed above $40 which I think will help propel the stock to the mid to upper 40's.
gold may not far from topping Submitted by DavidV (40 comments) on Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:02 #71827Another sign as to why gold is not far from topping is that GDX closed today almost exactly where it was on October 7, while GLD kept up its linear uptrend, rising from 131.81 to 133.68 today. I've seen this before: miners top out and then a week later gold collapses. So unless GDX breaks out to new highs early next week, I would start taking major profits on gold/silver longs (I am already doing it gradually now).
"Water Summit in DC"- Related to HEK...http://insurancenewsnet.com/article.aspx?id=230513
AAPL close...Holy crap.
Mark - what do you think about HEK? I'm still long - sell, add, hold tight?
JB- Let me think about it this weekend. My initial take is what I said earlier, sell and book the tax loss, wait 31 days and reevaluate, but I'm not so sure right now. I'll e-mail you, but I'm looking to get long as I've posted, but it might be better for you to take the tax loss....Hmmm...
HEK- The one good thing, the 100M warrants are sure to expire worthless unless it triples.
Ok Mark, thx!