Re: last hour question/ Bank Robber(s) newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4762 comments) on Fri, 10/15/2010 - 19:21 #71837 (in reply to #71835)
(a) A bank robber is usually defined as one who robs banks.
(b) You could also turn it around and define it as a bank that robs its clientele.
(c) Willie Sutton would be a good example of a bank robber. Angelo Mozilo would be a good example of a bank robber courted by banks.
(d) Countrywide would be a good example of definition (b).
So, did traders take home banks for the weekend?
I did.
Most closed relatively close to the lows of the day, which tells me the answer from traders was "no thanks." The massive volume says this is no joke, and that holders of the stock just want out at whatever price they can get.
Those are my kind(s) of stocks- I had a gas flying airline stocks during their 2009 nosedive.
I remain content with my XLF puts and I can let someone else take the big risks (and make the big bucks).
I'm in complete agreement there. My preferred 'backstop' is position sizing. A 5-6% maximum stake in any company, acquired in 20% allotments. Together with multiple entries/exits along the way.
But it certainly won't get done before the election.
I expect a great show at Gilley's the next few weeks.
Re: last hour question/ Bank Robber(s)
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by Johnny (848 comments) on Fri, 10/15/2010 - 19:34 #71839 (in reply to #71837)
2nd,
I consider this statement as the most valuable thing that came my way today, and I had a good day in the market.
"My preferred 'backstop' is position sizing. A 5-6% maximum stake in any company, acquired in 20% allotments. Together with multiple entries/exits along the way."
Thank you!
J
Re: Mad Market> Close 1185? newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4763 comments) on Fri, 10/15/2010 - 19:35 #71840 (in reply to #71782)
ReplyDeleteDid you pick up some chips over at the FAZ table?
No, that will have to wait. Right now, I count myself fortunate to have closed FSRBX on Wednesday (following a 2-day holding period), as I had a 25% portfolio weighting in it. I still can't believe I made money on it, given that (a) I am only able to trade the fund end-of-day, and (b) Fidelity imposes a 0.75% short-term trading fee for funds held less than 30 days- ridiculous!).
Btw, we closed on the refi about two weeks ago. The lender is a major San Francisco-based bank I am currently 'invested' in- how's that for irony?
Re: last hour question newSubmitted by Vadym Graifer (1512 comments) on Fri, 10/15/2010 - 19:43 #71841 (in reply to #71835)
ReplyDeleteSo, did traders take home banks for the weekend?
On a day when the market was up slightly, and when tech was up nicely, we had:
BAC: off -4.92% rel vol 3.81
WFC: off -4.5% rel vol 3.85
STI: off -4.69% rel vol 2.19
JPM: off -4.05% rel vol 3.95
C: off -2.71% rel vol 2.41
Most closed relatively close to the lows of the day, which tells me the answer from traders was "no thanks."
But... who did then? There was a buyer in every sell transaction, wasn't ii? :)
Re: last hour question/ Bank Robber(s)/ Gimme Shelter newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4764 comments) on Fri, 10/15/2010 - 19:47 #71842 (in reply to #71839)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3hyTfUuX60
J- Still my favorite Stones recording. The one to play when they're tossing stocks out windows...
So everyone's had the first three shots and now working on the fourth?
ReplyDeleteThat's OK, man. I'm like Kyle. When I drink, I drink aloooooone, with nobody else.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysXMAOgEIq4&feature=related
2nd - With this kind of crazy a-- market, drinking is the only constant...
ReplyDeleteAs my downstairs classmate used to say- 'I'm having fun- BIG fun!'
ReplyDeleteI'm actually seriously considering longer-term holds in BAC/WFC (yeah, we know how that goes)- can you imagine paying the 8-year-old's entire way through college using just the positions I opened today...I can.
ReplyDeleteI might have to add GE to that list.
ReplyDeleteWFC reports on Wed don't they??? Anything could happen...be careful. They were discussing options trades on cnbc & WFC was one of them. Their feeling was that a downside target of 21 was possible FWIW.
ReplyDelete"I'm actually seriously considering longer-term holds in BAC/WFC (yeah, we know how that goes)- can you imagine paying the 8-year-old's entire way through college using just the positions I opened today...I can. "
ReplyDelete2nd - I don't think the sell off in GE would quantify as an opportunity to do that. BAC? Maybe. If you want a good one that looks ripe to turn things around, check out FRME. I've had this bad boy on my watch list for a year now and it looks like a great time to buy. 0.45 times book, they used to pay about a $0.90 to $1.00 dividend and have paid a dividend for 20 years. If they return to that dividend payout in the future, you're looking at a 12% dividend on the current price.
you know what's messed up? i checked back and I didn't lose money once the entire year on my mutual fund trades in my 401k. 2nd - I remember you were saying how it's absurd that we have to wait until day's end to buy/sell. honestly, i think it's a blessing in disguise. i find myself thinking about the trade much more deeplly.
ReplyDeleteRe: last hour question newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4765 comments) on Fri, 10/15/2010 - 20:31 #71843 (in reply to #71841)
ReplyDeleteThanks for pointing that out, Vad. I would encourage anyone interested to load 2-yr charts of BAC, WFC, STI, JPM and C (what the heck- include GE, which also sold off 5% today- its two-year chart makes the point even more dramatically)- and note the pattern of price moves following high-volume sell-offs.
I will wait for 21 to add the next allotment of WFC, then.
ReplyDeletetof- Yes, the EOD 'rule' for mutual fund exchanges also works both ways...
ReplyDeleteRe FRME, I'm trying to stay away from stocks I haven't been following. Plus- right now there's no shortage of beaten down blue chips.
ReplyDeleteI still think 12000/1300 is in the cards. And that we need 'resolution' with 'mortgage-gate' to get there.
ReplyDeleteGimme Shelter...Not only is that my favorite Stones song, it's my favorite song, period. I have a least 6 versions on my ipod.
ReplyDelete1300- I agree if mortgage gate doesn't last that long. If it doesn't...that's Fing Jet A-1 fuel, man.
ReplyDelete2nd- Have you caught the Jerry Brown ads/speeches, where he basically say's, "At my age I can do the right thing."? Am I the only one who goes....Well WTF!!!! have your last 700 years in office been then.
ReplyDeleteSeriously. Look at any chart of a DOW-30 component and see what happens to prices following high-volume sell-offs.
ReplyDeleteRe: last hour question newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4766 comments) on Fri, 10/15/2010 - 20:53 #71844 (in reply to #71843)
ReplyDeleteConversely, what happens following high-volume spikes?
I don't necessarily 'believe' in these companies. I just place my faith in the endless cycles of crowd behavior.
Mark- You're talking to the wrong guy. I actually like Jerry Brown. It's Meg Whitman I can't stand. But I'll probably end up voting Republican, since in the grand scheme of things, voting Republican means larger paychecks ;)
ReplyDeleteWhy didn't you left-coasters get somebody like say Sylvester Stallone to run??? How many times has Brown been gov anyway??
ReplyDeleteMy nomination would be Clint Eastwood.
ReplyDelete2nd- Not a political comment either way. It just seems so open ended. When I first heard it, I thought..."Who ever wrote that is toast", but they have used it for weeks.
ReplyDeleteTypically, I don't like either of them.
Kyle- How 'bout that stripper chick? That might work ;)
2nd- I'd vote for Pale Rider if he never said a word :)
ReplyDeleteYep - need someone wealthy enough and down to earth and hard-nosed enough to punch through the BS and get it straight. Chris Christie is certainly lighting it up in NJ.
ReplyDeletePale Rider was better than Dirty Harry. The 3-day stubble makes a difference.
ReplyDeletevb- Haven't heard from you since 'packing for Tahoe.' Hope that means you're having a good time...
ReplyDeleteRe: last hour question newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4767 comments) on Fri, 10/15/2010 - 21:31 #71847 (in reply to #71846)
ReplyDeleteAt the risk of using the cliche' "it's different this time" and without knowing what special events were in play during previous high-volume sell offs, my take on today was -- concern over the "gathering dark clouds" represented by foreclosure lawsuits brought in all 50 states.
J- Let me quote a source I trust-
'What has been will be again,
what has been done will be done again;
there is nothing new under the sun.'
-Ecclesiastes 1:9 (New International Version)
Damn...Looks like I'm going to be hit with a EOY tax bill for 40K from 2008...And I take a bi-monthly fully taxed pay check.
ReplyDeleteWhat's Whitman's web site again for donations? :))
ReplyDelete2009 of course.....
ReplyDeleteHey Mark - WTF, how'd you end up with that tax bill? Seems like every year I screw something up and they send me nasty-gram but $40k is serious cash...sorry to hear that!!
ReplyDeletegood luck in Fairfield today - go Kendra!
JB- Construction is a very capital intensive business. It's REALLY hard to get an accurate current account P&L. We are always paid in arrears and jobs over lap years.
ReplyDeleteI probably should look into our accounting more closely. Same thing happened last year.
Thanks, we leave @ 6:30. It's going to be a long day. I just found out yesterday she also has been asked to play for the U10's and U11's today.
If I'm lucky I'll be able to stay awake for 1/2 of the Giants game.
damn, that's going to be a loooong day.
ReplyDeleteI'll sit on my ass even more than usual to compensate!
How lame is it when Kendra is the one playing and I'll be the one that's wiped out.
ReplyDeleteSit away!!!!
Can I just say that this here group of people on this blog is a great group of people to enjoy cyberspace with? Aside from the occasional anon poster that I tend to ignore I love reading everyones posts. Anyway mark have a great day. Cheers everyone.
ReplyDeleteSide note: I had a drEam that we rallied hard over the next 6 months and that volume and m&a spiked along with jobs. And Goldman sachs sprinted to $200 on excellent capital markets. Fd: long gs with overweight position
Which way doth the wind blow? (Could this evolve into a green light for US gov. wind subsidies?):
ReplyDelete"China calls US green-tech trade charges 'groundless'
(AFP) – 2 hours ago
BEIJING — China on Saturday rejected US allegations that it was engaging in unfair trade practices in the green technology sector, calling the charge "groundless and irresponsible".
The statement from the commerce ministry followed an announcement Friday by US trade authorities that a probe had been launched into claims China is handing out huge illegal subsidies in a bid to dominate the sector.
The United Steelworkers union had petitioned US trade officials to investigate practices it claims contravene World Trade Organization (WTO) rules and cost American jobs.
"The union's complaint is groundless and irresponsible," China's commerce ministry said Saturday in a statement posted on its website."
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hISCayxAb9DpKXGr-AR1QgUZLshw?docId=CNG.9062e9cf331afc10d8bd08688d8dd28b.751
And here's a hurricane that could keep the winds at bay into the foreseeable future:
ReplyDelete"Natural gas elbows its way to center stage
How cheap, abundant natural gas is pushing every other power source to the sidelines
Jonathan Fahey, AP Energy Writer, On Wednesday October 13, 2010, 1:57 pm EDT
NEW YORK (AP) -- By unlocking decades' worth of natural-gas deposits deep underground across the United States, drillers have ensured that natural gas will be cheap and plentiful for the foreseeable future. It's a reversal from a few years ago that is transforming the energy industry.
The sudden abundance of natural gas has been a boon to homeowners who use it for heat, local economies in gas-rich regions, manufacturers that use it to power factories and companies that rely on it as a raw material for plastic, carpet and other everyday products. But it has upended the ambitious growth plans of companies that produce power from wind, nuclear energy and coal. Those plans were based on the assumption that supplies of natural gas would be tight, and prices high."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Natural-gas-elbows-its-way-to-apf-3742330099.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
FD: I have no intentions of taking positions in this area in the near future.