Re: last hour question/ Using One's Own Sword newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4769 comments) on Sat, 10/16/2010 - 12:20 #71867 (in reply to #71855)
The question I really have is, is the market showing any real buying support for the stock, or is the selling pressure overwhelming the buying pressure?
dave- I don't think anyone really knows. We all have our own approaches to trading, most likely forged from the fire of experience. The 'swords' we use are further ideally suited to our individual temperaments.
Your trading method dovetails nicely (based on what I know) with Bill's 'RSI approach'- rather than buying simply because a stock falls to the AZ, you wait for confirmation of buying interest (a Buy Alert).
For reasons too complex for me to understand, I enjoy wading into areas of desolation to carve out gains.
I may be 'early' in the sense of opening positions well north of the ultimate 'bottom.' But that's OK, as I 'trade around' the position so many times, the point at which the original position was opened may ultimately prove meaningless. A good (gaming) analogy might be playing the '6 and 8' for huge gains even if the original pass line bet loses on a 'seven out.'
So your question is a good one from the POV of a swing trade. It's much less meaningful to me- not to the point of 'I don't care,' but (as long as I'm buying on panic) 'It doesn't matter that much to me.'
Re: Peter Schiff : Next Few Years Worse Than Great Depression newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4770 comments) on Sat, 10/16/2010 - 12:30 #71869 (in reply to #71865)
ReplyDeleteI have to agree with Dave M.
Jim Rogers, of course, backs up his takes with action- selling his home in NYC and moving to Singapore being one example. But if he's enjoying life in Singapore (who wouldn't), it's not because of his take.
I think we can all learn from Walter Breuning, who after all lived through the Great Depression and two World Wars prior to now watching the rest of us take on the Great Recession.
Mark- My only advice would be to place the entire 40k on 'red,' and double it. Then you have no problem.
ReplyDeleteAnd of course, you can take us all out dinner with the proceeds. Where else in the blogosphere can you get real-life advice like than? Advice that works.
ReplyDeleteWait a minute- 'Advice that works?' Wasn't that one of Schwab's lines?
ReplyDeleteRe: Peter Schiff : Next Few Years Worse Than Great Depression
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4772 comments) on Sat, 10/16/2010 - 17:27 #71883 (in reply to #71881)
I spent most of the seventies in high school/college, and recall my parents talking about inflation during that period. In spite of a stock market that merely treaded water and interest rates that rocketed up to double digits, I have fond memories of that decade- when we cut back on expenses, we often discover the simpler pleasures of life: bull sessions that last well into the night, board games, BBQs and volleyball at the local park. None of that requires much (if any) money.
There are also ways we can profit from inflation. My folks were able to come out ahead partly by investing in income property around the University of Michigan campus. I just can't get into owning physical gold/silver, but that would be another route.
Whatever the next decade brings, I suggest taking it all in stride. Life is meant to be lived- not taken too seriously, and certainly not filled with anxiety. It helps to have faith in an afterlife. Pain, suffering and grief? All are (necessary) parts of life that we are unable to avoid, nor should we seek to avoid- we're ultimately enriched.
The fun side of financial reporting
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by Grym (2613 comments) on Sat, 10/16/2010 - 15:56 #71878
Perhaps Bernanke should lighten up, have a glass or two before going on camera ;-)
Former Swiss finance minister Hans-Rudolf Merz burst into a giggle fit when he read a parliamentary speech on the subject of spiced meat imports.
http://tiny.cc/rm3wigekge
Re: The fun side of financial reporting newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4773 comments) on Sat, 10/16/2010 - 17:48 #71884 (in reply to #71878)
Grym- That's a great video.
You're right- maybe Bernanke can try something similar. If Congress had laughed its way through Greenspan's indecipherable monologues, we might have avoided altogether the economic crisis we have today?
2nd - yet another take on the Great Sentiment Debate:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/citi-investor-sentiment-2010-10
Spiced meat - Well, Ben's got a big schnitzel just for us!
ReplyDeleteRed..OK, good. I'll post the results in about 3 hrs. once I get to Tahoe.
ReplyDeleteTOF- From the previous post. I couldn't agree more. I've had the great privilege of meeting with 2nd, David (AKA DavidV), and VB. Smart, honest intelligent across the board. That's the deal here. Real people with real lives, jobs, etc.
I'm sure I could say the same about everyone else.
No sketchy dudes trading $500 accounts from their parents garages.
On a personal note, I couldn't be more proud than I was of Kendra today. Love you baby!
Mark - I'm sure those guys think the same of u. So my fiancé and I have just started discussing me quitting my job and doing the web businesses full time. I created a template site for my main web biz and have been able to duplicate it making creating multiple businesses easy. Not sure yet if in financially ready but the gains over the past yeAr have gotten me closer. We're thinking now is the time b4 the kids start coming. Tough decision but exciting to have her support!
ReplyDeletehey mark, we must have passed each other on the road. I just got back from the lake. will be there permanently nov 1. (well, permanent for me is 3 months these days... sure has been a tough year for vb)
ReplyDeletetof, what kind of web biz?
TOF- You don't need me to tell you to go for it. Now's the time, take the chance. At my age (46) it's all about the kids, and I couldn't be happier for it. Do it, man!!
ReplyDeleteVB- I miss you both here and in person. You've found your Nirvana in Tahoe, I know you can make it happen.
Scan this article with you Sunday morning coffee....
ReplyDeletehttp://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970203952604575552190237324972.html#mod=bol_share_twitter
Had a little free time this morning and scanned CC...When will those guys learn not to get in a pissing match with Vad. Too Fing funny.
ReplyDeleteMark - yeah, i think you're probably right. i might wait until this wedding is fully paid off. problem is my busy season gets going in january and doesn't let up til april.
ReplyDeletevb - i'm in the online furniture retail biz...been doing it as a part time thing for 9 years now. but with the template i created i can branch out to any market really...doesn't have to be furniture.
by the way, how about them giants!?!? beating halladay in the opener is huge. let's see how sanchez holds up. i'm a mets fan but i kinda like the giants. and there's no way i want the phillies to win.
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ReplyDeleteRe: Foreclosure gate/ 'Robo-signing?' We do it every day.
Submitted by 2nd_ave (4774 comments) on Sun, 10/17/2010 - 15:12 #71907 (in reply to #71890)
Ross- That's a pretty good summation of the latest 'gate.
(a) Either they own the house or they don't. If they don't, what are they doing there?
(b) If they own the house and can't pay, then go ahead and foreclose on the house.
Do I read every piece of paper I sign when closing a mortgage? No. Do I read every line of every document when opening a bank/brokerage/charge account? No. Does that mean that everything I've 'attested' to is null and void?
All of us (OK, there will always be one or two in the room who claim to have read it all) 'robo-sign' things all the time.
FINALLY done with soccer this weekend. Anyone looking at anything interesting??
ReplyDelete'FINALLY done with soccer this weekend!" ME TOO.
ReplyDeleteMy Son's team got Pole Axed by a team from the Arizona Mexican league. Called the Latino's. These Mexican teams fly under the radar because you don't know who will be on their team on any given day. My son did get asked to play on the regional traveling team. I initially said no. But I am not sure now.
I will do my chart rigor and see if I can come up with anything.
Bob
RB- We have the same issue here but to a lesser degree. There's no issue with the girls.
ReplyDeleteWhy wouldn't you want your son to play on the regional team?
Tonight's game was fun. Kendra played for our clubs U11 yesterday. She had the only SOG for the whole team. They lost 4-0.
Today they played the same clubs U9 team. They won 9-0. Payback is a bitch.
I see that the spot copper price has been flat over the past week and FCX has stalled as well. At the same time, the Commitment of Traders report shows that as of last Tuesday, the net long positions in copper futures by "Managed money" and "Nonreportable" participants were both at 2010 highs (and maybe at multi-year highs, but I haven't checked every week's report). So I think now is the time to start shorting FCX outright, and not just rely on the FCX puts that I have been rolling upwards (I have both November $100 and $95 puts). So I am placing a sell short stop limit order on FCX at $96.99/$96.90 for 100 shares (a medium position for me).
ReplyDeleteI see the spot copper price is down sharply now, and so I am also placing a buy stop limit order for 2 November $100 puts on FCX at $7/$7.10 -- if FCX jumps over my sell short stop limit order, then maybe this buy stop limit order on puts gets triggered.
Two years ago Neil played on this team, so I know it well.
ReplyDeleteCONS:
1. Parents are psychos. I mean really psychos!
2. Neil has developed as player a lot more on a worse team, because he has to work harder. Many players that were better two years ago are not nearly as good as him now. Some is developmental, most is the need to step up on a mediocre team.
3. They actually fly around the country like professionals. For a 15 year old that is pretty ridiculous.
PROs
1. More exposure to coaches at the next level.
2. Will not get fouled 20 times a game. and maybe get some open field.
3. Reputation of playing on team could open some doors.
Club teams go on High school hiatus so we have time to think about it. If he does well on the High school team. We will have to evaluate.
Hussman's letter this week is excellent and I suggest everyone reads it, as it discusses many of the things we have been discussing: the current state and the future prospects of banks, QE2, etc. Here is the link:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc101018.htm
I have a feeling that we might be in for some nasty downside action this week, and so I am also widening my sell stop limit order on CEF to $17.60/$17.30 from $17.60/$17.55.
ReplyDeleteBill Hester (from Hussman's team) also had a great piece this week. Here is an excerpt from it:
ReplyDelete"Firm long-term yields aren't necessarily bad. They might reflect investor expectations that QE will be effective in stimulating economic growth. But TIPS prices suggest that most of the increase in yield spreads of late has come from investors pricing in higher inflation expectations. And expectations of higher rates of inflation are being priced more aggressively into longer-term nominal bonds. The Fed would prefer to see medium-term inflation expectations rise, while long-term inflation expectations stayed low. This would suggest that investors have confidence that the Central Bank is able to orchestrate some near-term inflation, which the Fed hopes might motivate consumers and businesses to ramp up their spending, while holding long-term inflation expectations in check. The graph shows that the exact opposite set of expectations are being priced into the bond market. Investors expect further disinflation over the short-to-medium term, while their long-term inflation expectations are rising. The early bond-market consensus on the risks of pursuing QE – unhinged long-term inflation expectations - is not favorable.
Stock investors may want to show caution here. In Japan, the period surrounding the announcement of quantitative easing was more favorable for equities than the period that contained the actual bond purchases. Beginning in March of 2001, the Nikkei quickly rebounded from a 15% correction on the announcement that the Bank of Japan would buy Japanese government bonds. That optimism faded just as rapidly. Six weeks later the market peaked and would fall by more than 30 percent in just four months as investors realized that bond purchases were neither boosting private demand nor the level of inflation expectations. Eventually the Nikkei bottomed in April of 2003, more than 45 percent below the peak in prices immediately following the QE announcement."
It confirms the feeling I have about the current rally having a triangular shape (just like the February-April-July time period) and about us being very close if not exactly at the top of that triangle now.
OIL Drillers: Irritate the hell out of me.
ReplyDeleteThere were many opportunities to get in, but a nice obvious safe time is when the moratorium was lifted. I was probably weary of sell the news shit, but come on sometimes the obvious trade is a profitable trade. HAL has a nice chart. And TSO has a nice chart. What about the refiners David?
RoBear -- I haven't been following the refiners since 2008. Since the collapse of their prices in 2008, I am not sure why they haven't rebounded. Apparently, there are some fundamental difficulties they are experiencing and I am not sure what they are. As such, I don't want to engage in trading them right now. Do you have an idea as to why their prices have not rebounded and what difficulties they are facing?
ReplyDelete"Beginning in March of 2001, the Nikkei quickly rebounded from a 15% correction on the announcement that the Bank of Japan would buy Japanese government bonds. That optimism faded just as rapidly. Six weeks later the market peaked and would fall by more than 30 percent in just four months as investors realized that bond purchases were neither boosting private demand nor the level of inflation expectations. "
ReplyDeleteI don't know David...I'd say that they are the tail wagged by the dog (the US) and the US markets were down big time in 2001/2002.
Good point, TOF -- S&P did have a nice 18% bounce starting March 2001 and peaked 6 weeks later, in May 2001.
ReplyDeleteBut then, maybe the bounce in S&P in March 2001 was *CAUSED* by the Japanese QE, and once the faith in that QE has evaporated, then the global markets collapsed in tandem...
It is just the feeling I have of the current stock market rally being simply a major bull trap, just like the rally in bonds in December 2008.
And so, while I am in the mood of shorting everything that moves, I am also placing a sell short stop limit order for 200 shares of IWM at $69.45/$69 (a medium-sized short position for me). The 5-day chart of intraday IWM prices gives me the feeling that if $69.50 is broken to the downside, then the IWM rally is over.
ReplyDeleteDavid,
ReplyDeleteIt does not make sense to me. You would think the mere infrastructure it takes to refine would give some kind of pricing power. I thought maybe they were on the wrong side of the hedge book when oil collapsed, but that should be over by now. Chemical companies have recovered I'm thinking Refiners may be next. If TSO shows any strength. I am going to put on a small position. They have great cash flow and probably increasing margins. They have.6 book to share ratio.
I like your FCX strategy, but if it breaches $100 and stays above, I see 120 stock. The momentum traders will jump on that sucker like a cook on a cockroach.Do you have an exit strategy? Also 96.90 could be hit and recovered in one day of trading. Also in the other direction your put sale might be cheap. This could be an $80 stock with any hint of dollar strength.
Bob
Continuing on my "shorting spree", I placed a sell short stop limit order for 1000 shares of XHB at $15.50/$15.40 (if the order gets triggered, I'll place a stop at $16).
ReplyDeleteAs for FCX, I will place a stop at $101 if my sell short order is triggered tomorrow. For IWM, I'll place a stop at $70.50 if my sell short order is triggered.
I know I am setting up myself for a big trading loss if the market closes green tomorrow after the likely gap down. I may even break my rule of not letting the market control my lifestyle (i.e., interfere with my 10am wake up time) and wake up tomorrow at 7:00 to take a peak at the market and make sure it is moving in the right direction.
2nd_ave, I hope you read this carefully before deciding to hold BAC/WFC for the long term:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2010/10/15/the-subprime-debacle-act-2.aspx
There is a very good reason as to why the big banks are down so much, and they may be going much lower...
The time to buy them will be when the new legislature is passed that resolves the current foreclosure mess, just like the time to buy the market was when the "mark to market" rule was suspended in March 2009.
Landry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
The bad: The banks are lagging.
The good: The indices are at/near multi-month highs and most sectors remain in solid uptrend.
I think the good outweighs the bad.
Therefore, once again: Continue to look go get long but as usual wait for entries and honor your stops.
Futures are soft but off of their worst levels pre-market.
Technology+Financials newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4775 comments) on Mon, 10/18/2010 - 09:24 #71940
ReplyDeleteContinued rotation into technology + Rotation into financials. Buyers piling into a combination of high fliers + dogs may drive this market higher.
This market has every reason to go down. But it's going up. Being unable to explain it is no reason to short it, IMO.
Make that Dow dogs...
ReplyDeleteOnly my FCX sell stop order was triggered this morning at $96.90 for 100 shares. I am placing a buy stop order at $98 and going back to sleep. :)
ReplyDeleteAlso, XHB is kinda close to my sell short stop at $15.50, so I am moving my stop a little lower to $15.48, just to make sure that the break of the spike low in XHB from Friday will be for real.
See you in a few. :)
While I was typing this, XHB did hit my sell short stop at $15.48 for 1000 shares (so, 2nd_ave, not all dogs are going up today!), and so I am also placing a buy stop at $15.70.
ReplyDeletealright...sold my remaining GLD put at a 10% profit. I also added to my GS $155 October 22 calls, merely speculating that they beat earnings tomorrow and the stock gaps up. My money at risk is about $2,500. It will be interesting to see how it does. I think GS is safe in this environment because they don't have the crazy exposure to this foreclosure issue, because M&A is picking up significantly, and because volumes are rising. I do have a few $150 puts that I will probably add to prior to the close.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, I mentioned this company before and its worth mentioning again: ADES. I would keep an eye on this. It's a very interesting clean coal company. It's a very illiquid stock but I suspect its worth multiples of its current value. They have a license deal in place with Arch Coal and have their hands in a whole lot of different deals.
Opening SMH @ 28.09 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4776 comments) on Mon, 10/18/2010 - 10:00 #71943
ReplyDeleteTarget is 28.50. I think it's mainly strong hands holding semis right now.
Banks on 2nd, NDQ at bat newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4777 comments) on Mon, 10/18/2010 - 10:16 #71944
ReplyDeleteMax frustration for bears? Bid financials during the day, rocket the NDQ after hours.
CADC - Needs to recapture and retain it's opening price of $4.04...
ReplyDeleteGMO - Meeting expectation.
I'm finding a ton of stocks that look like screaming buys either because they have been so beaten down or because they are breaking out: BYD, MGM, GS, JPM, BAC, IMMR, WATG, ODP, NLS, RAS,
ReplyDeleteReducing exposure to the 'gate- WFC closed @ 24.25 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4778 comments) on Mon, 10/18/2010 - 10:24 #71945
ReplyDeleteWill look to reenter...
SMH/XLF - It's usually one or the other but rarely both together.
ReplyDeleteShanghai - Was wondering when a bit of a pullback would come... Hopefully it's not the beginning of a trend.
ReplyDeleteSilver back to a $24 handle, good thing I didn't pick up some ZSL... When does gold go green?
TOT - We don't care 'bout no French strikers!
ReplyDeleteWondering if Monika Lewinski's boyfriend's wife will pursue office in the next presidential election cycle?
ReplyDeleteMonica L.....Could you kiss her knowing she had the presidential schlong ........yeeeeeeech!
ReplyDeleteI bought ANO at 1.31 this morning and feeling good @ ti.
CP - hope you followed your own suggestion: PIP is up 30% today!! Glad I added that w/more BTIM but hands down your selection was better than mine....THX!!!
ReplyDeleteEeeeeeeuuuuuu!
ReplyDeletejb - Just a SWAG! Truthfully, I know nothing about the medical industry aside from what everyone knows and even that's debatable.
ReplyDeleteGMO...about to have a big day?
ReplyDeleteAdding to PXP @ 27.15
ReplyDeleteREE...already having one...
ReplyDeleteHere's one 4 yer radar screeen.....
ReplyDeleteThis is a downtrend that may be in the process of breaking, replete with one of those triple bottoms were seeing lost of lately that have actually been real bottoms.
GMXR......it's some kind of an U.S. shale play.
Looks like it MAY just be getting good ...
but beware the screwdoodle:)..it may have one more in it before it "really" gets good.
REE
ReplyDeletewas a "perfect" upside break from a perfect looking pennant.
Will look to get long MMR @ some point.
ReplyDeletePicked up another dog at the pound> INTC @ 19.09 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4781 comments) on Mon, 10/18/2010 - 12:49 #71960
ReplyDeleteThis is one unloved stock...
China - In excess of 2600 mining fatalities over the span of 12 months. There's a lot of digging going on over there...
ReplyDeleteAnd coal here is weak today?
Good morning, once again! :) I see that none of the stops I placed at the open today got hit, and both FCX and XHB are about where I left them, which is good. :) IWM, on the other hand, is up a little, and so I decided to short it right here and now, which I just did at $70.71 for 100 shares. I placed a stop at $71.20, a little above the recent highs.
ReplyDeleteDesignated hitters- AAPL/IBM newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4783 comments) on Mon, 10/18/2010 - 13:47 #71969 (in reply to #71955)
ReplyDeletejack- I'm pretty sure they connect. Question is whether to sell after hours, or let positions ride into Tuesday.
I also just noticed that CEF hit my sell stop order today at $17.60, and so now I have exited ALL my 750 shares of CEF in 3 equal bunches: (17.31, 17.60, 17.91). My cost basis for them was around $14.75.
ReplyDeleteNow my only exposure to silver is through ECU.TO, which forms about 1/4 of my portfolio now. :) And I also have GLD for about 12% of my portfolio.
Just sold 100 more shares of IWM at $70.71, increasing my total short position to 200 shares. Placed a buy stop limit order for all of them at $70.22/$70.32, for a maximum loss of $100.
ReplyDeletePXP,
ReplyDeleteBuy limit order at 27.10. Looking for a rebound off the 20 and 200 EMA.Hope it fills in the next couple of days.
RB
JB- Please tell me you cashed in PIP.
ReplyDeletePIP,SIGA - FWIW...
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/230259-why-pharmathene-could-go-from-2-to-20?source=yahoo
JADE - Glad I exited that one a few days ago
ReplyDeleteBAC/JPM closed @ 12.32/ 38.10 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4784 comments) on Mon, 10/18/2010 - 15:38 #71983
ReplyDeleteFast and furious action.
CRAAAAAAP! Had to go out to a dr's appt, come back and see PIP has given back of it's gain...ouch!
ReplyDeleteI meant to say "much" of it's gain...either way I blew it
ReplyDeleteImbalances....
ReplyDeleteBUY- V
SELL- C/BAC/JPM/WFC/AXP
Just bought 1000 shares of HNUZF at $2.95. Basically, I am recycling the money from CEF into HNUZF. I'd rather hold something that is completely unloved, oversold and undervalued than something that is overbought and overloved. Besides, the recent action in SWN tells me that gas producers expect the whole gas strip to start moving up soon, since their stock prices stopped falling and in fact started going up.
ReplyDeletejb - Have you learned your lesson? I'll bet that's the last time you go see a doctor for a walletectomy!!!
ReplyDelete"I'd rather hold something that is completely unloved, oversold and undervalued than something that is overbought and overloved."
ReplyDeleteAh Ha, David's a real lady's man! Go get 'em tiger!!!!
Canceled PXP went long ATPG.
ReplyDeleteRB
Sold a few of the GS $155 calls at around $153.90 prior to close. Took some of the profits off the table and letting the rest ride. Still holding my long stock position heading into earnings tomorrow morning.
ReplyDeleteIn order to give my XHB short a little more room, I decided to raise my stop limit to $16.10/$16.15.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I decided to cancel my stop on IWM -- it had an amazing rally so far, and I can't believe that its next low (when the pendulum swings the other way) will be above the current level. Also, if I wait for a change in the trend before shorting it, then I have a feeling that I will enter at a worse price than $70.71 I got today.
Started a position in TNA at $53.7 in after hours after the quick drop from IBM & Apple earnings which is absurd.
ReplyDeleteAdded more TNA at $53.55
ReplyDeleteAdded more TNA at $53.3
ReplyDeletehell yeah CP - I will only go to the Dr after the market closes...:)
ReplyDeleteOk last add on TNA at $53.05
ReplyDeleteI lied...one last add at $52.87. Average is at $53.28
ReplyDeleteSPY - Flash crash Close @ 106.46?
ReplyDeleteDon't worry, TOF -- this market is going up now not because of earnings, but because of POMOs. So there is a very good chance of TNA being above your cost basis at some point tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, I'll stick with my short position in IWM and will start thinking about closing it after IWM falls off it high by, say, 10%.
David - I'm not worrying...it's an after hours day trade so I'll be closing it in a couple of hours.
ReplyDeleteAnd I think the market is going up because of earnings and a strong worldwide economy.
It's great to have you on the blog, TOF! :) Now the pessimists like me have a chance to look at the other side of the coin, which is often concealed from them by the clouds of their internal biases.
ReplyDelete