Wednesday, October 20, 2010
10/21/10 Black Hawk Down - Mad World
The power of music + film in conveying an emotional gestalt is quite remarkable. The link above combines images from a great film with the haunting lines of an understated yet overwhelming song.
The SPX has soared to 1180 from 1050 in 7 weeks? Common sense alone tells me we need to stop and consolidate. Yesterday's sell-off made sense in that regard. Today's rally did not. I really think today's buyers will pay the price for climbing aboard. Bad move, IMO.
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Re: Black Hawk Down - Mad World
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by knifecatcher (328 comments) on Wed, 10/20/2010 - 20:59 #72288 (in reply to #72283)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HXZpPW_qJyM
This is the end
Beautiful friend
This is the end
My only friend, the end
Of our elaborate plans, the end
Of everything that stands, the end
No safety or surprise, the end
I'll never look into your eyes...again
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Re: Black Hawk Down - Mad World newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4812 comments) on Wed, 10/20/2010 - 21:05 #72289 (in reply to #72288)
knifecatcher- Quite possibly the best (as well as quickest) rejoinder to one of my posts.
Mark- You bet I took her home. She may even stay for longer than a one-night stand.
ReplyDeleteFor some reason you just reminded me of the movie "Attack of The Killer Tomatoes".
ReplyDeleteOh well!
I'm sure you cleared that with your lovely bride ;)
ReplyDeleteV today AH increased it's dividend by 20%.
ReplyDeleteI can't ----ing believe I didn't buy/hold V myself.
ReplyDelete20% dividend increase - "Nothin' from nuthin' leaves nuthin'"?
ReplyDeleteI dunno, doesn't seems like much of a divy to me fellas...
Mark - Ya never know, some guys will do anything their wife tells them...
ReplyDeleteCP- Your right, it's not a huge divy, but I consider it a growth stock and this just might attract some value players. Who knows.
ReplyDeleteI always do what my wife says....Mean as a snake that one.
CP/Mark- These are remarkable times. The 2009-10 rally is just as unbelievable as the 2008-09 drop. What's next- I don't know.
ReplyDeleteRight- What we really need is a 20% dividend, period.
ReplyDeleteSHZzle - Halide minerals aren't rare earths!
ReplyDeleteWhat did I just miss? Nikkei snaps from -54 to +40? On a dime?
ReplyDeleteThe USD is now soaring against the yen.
ReplyDeleteEveryone is looking at the USD correlation, of course. The final stake in the bears would be a break of that and BOTH move higher. It can happen. Look back to the last SPX/USD high's.
ReplyDelete2nd- I posted my comment about the USD before I saw your last one. Interesting.
ReplyDeleteI've been playin' cat and mouse with a pesky fox for over a month now, this evening I hid out in the cold rain trying to see if he'd come around so I could chase him out of the yard again.
ReplyDeleteHe's been bothering/harassing/eating the ducks...
Snake problems are much easier to deal with, although most snakes are good to have around. It's the venomous ones I don't care for much.
And why would copper be up right now 1.75%?
ReplyDeleteNikkei rockets from -60 to +60 as the $USD soars newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4813 comments) on Wed, 10/20/2010 - 21:55 #72297
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/2adalzf
When Geithner talks, people are now actually listening.
As I was saying, these are remarkable times...
ReplyDeleteMake that 'As the Yen drops.'
ReplyDeleteCP- Oh yea, she's venomous ;) Frigin Black Mamba.
ReplyDeleteFeels like someone's making currency adjustments again, don't it? Probably at one point in time not so long ago, daily moves like these would've been cause to stay the hell out of equities all together...
ReplyDeleteAs The World Turns newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4814 comments) on Wed, 10/20/2010 - 22:04 #72298 (in reply to #72297)
ReplyDeleteNow a financial soap opera...
"And why would copper be up right now 1.75%?"
ReplyDeleteYou're referring to Dr. Copper? The commodity with a PHD in economics?
Incidentally, most everyone these days has no difficulty placing this material into the commodities category, which is more than can be said for certain other elements on the periodic table.
Mark- I'm showing copper at -0.09%.
ReplyDelete2nd- Yeah, that makes more sense. I'm getting different data from 2 sites.
ReplyDeleteMaybe better to be trading currencies instead of equities.
ReplyDeleteCurrencies vs equities - It's nearly the same dynamic except there's quite a bit more value in an equity that's mispriced due to fear than a currency that's over-bloated for the same reason?
ReplyDeletevb- That's like asking Herbie Hancock to play Chopin- he could do it, but it wouldn't be the same.
ReplyDeleteThis market is so manic right now, I could almost buy/short a stock at random, and at some point during the day I would make a profit.
ReplyDeleteif the dollar is collasping, there is no worth to your equities in usd.
ReplyDeletethat is all I am saying.
gold is the only safe bet now and it isn't safe since the currencies can be manipulated.
sell everything and go to usd? I don't think that is safety except for a day trade
gold isn't safe for the simple reason the gov't can confiscate all of it...investors who say it can't happen are in denial...it happened once- why can't it happen again
ReplyDeleteCu - Yep, according to Kitco it's down a quarter percent now. Like 2nd says, if that price doesn't tickle your funny bone just wait a bit longer and be ready to pounce.
ReplyDeletein fact, you should pose that question on 'the blog,' and let's see what they come up with...
ReplyDeleteTraders move back and forth from cash to equities, governments are attempting to encourage investment by flooding markets with cash?
ReplyDeleteGold - They don't even have to confiscate it, they'll just tax the pee out of it.
ReplyDeleteBesides, I don't know any kitties that would rather have a sliver of gold as opposed to a saucer of warm milk. ;)
ReplyDelete2nd, Look, eventually we have to face reality here. People are putting VXX in their IRA account - I rather have gold buried in the back yard
ReplyDeletejust sayin...
and a cow or two
ReplyDeleteSo I've got an even better question for the gold bugs involving current events in real time; what's the actual reason the price of gold is down right now?
ReplyDeletemaybe some chickens and even a llama ...
ReplyDeleteand a water well
ReplyDeleteI like llamas...:)
ReplyDeleteand a husky :)
ReplyDeletemark, pls visualize this for me!
ReplyDelete:)
I don't get it- how is gold stashed illegally in your backyard going to help you? I don't think many merchants would want to barter in exchange for gold that they would in turn have to convince someone else to accept.
ReplyDeleteMy biggest peeve with gold really is that I cannot comprehend the forces making it move. Back in 2008, gold prices crashed as everyone went to the dollar even though they knew, or should've known full well that government would fire up the printing presses to get us out of the danger zone just like Captain Kirk used to fire up his dilithium crystal powered warp drive everytime the Enterprise was about to be gobbled up by giant tribbles.
ReplyDeleteAlright- way past my bedtime. Looking forward to another day of fun. Throwing out two reds for a 'craps check' right now.
ReplyDeleteWow, I certainly hope people aren't really putting VXX in their IRA accounts, those folks should at least think about gold instead.
ReplyDeleteChickens - Much easier to care for than ducks, trust me.
ReplyDeleteVB- OK, just watch a baseball game. Llamas spit all the time :)
ReplyDeleteUSD..OK, no one is more lame than me when it comes to this stuff, but this is the way I look at it. Besides working, the only way for me to accumulate more $'s is through the market when the $ is cheap. Like I'm doing now. I guess someday they will be worth more, and I'll have more of then than before.
Alpaca's are also nice.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone recall reading advice to pull all your cash out of the bank and stick it under your mattress?
ReplyDeleteDo you recall where you heard such nonsense and was that really a reasonable approach?
Lots of folks accomplished that by selling off their 401K and stuffing the cash into their home safes, I bet many of them would've been much better off if they'd just done nothing.
Baby llama's miss their mama's when they're lost.
ReplyDeleteArivaderchi folks,
ReplyDeleteNight CP.....
ReplyDeletesweet dreams chicken
ReplyDeleteLooks like the estimate for tomorrow's natty storage report is +89.
ReplyDeleteCIBC has an $80.00 target for oil in 2011. I not sure if that's WTI (which is what we see on CNBC) or something else. They also have a natty target of $5.00 for 2011.
SO maybe one person is creating a report, maybe a low level government employee, and the sales groups for all the banks use this person's report, tweak it a bit maybe and publish it. Then someone like me reads it and says "looks like the 2011 natty target price is $5.00".
port- I think we re going to see more things like the KWK rumor (again). It will have to happen.
ReplyDeleteDon't know why, I just have this nagging feeling that there is a lot more crude out there than what the $82.00 price suggest. One thing I heard today is that our elected officials, including the White House, are very aware of the fact that big energy projects means jobs.
ReplyDeleteSo as long as the price of oil stays up, we're going to keep drilling for oil and liquids rich gas and build pipelines. Gotta have peeps working to do that.
All right...I had to eat crow with the Sharks this year...F it...GO GIANTS!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteOne more!!!!
port- Makes sense to me.
ReplyDeletemark,
ReplyDeleteHere is a very true story and my reason for being a Gold Bug. I made this a simple as I could possibly make it. (Like kindergarten style!)
As a child, we used to barter with our mardi gras candy. We had huge bags of candy after the parade and we all set up store. We had so much candy, we set up a money system using Monopoly money. The turpentine and moon pies had alot more value than the taffy pcs. A 10.00 bill was one moon pie (or 10 taffy pcs).
One night, the candy disappeared... (I think my mother confiscated it since we were all hyped on sugar.)
The next day, we were all left with worthless monopoly money!!
Point being, our monopoly money were "fiat dollars" no longer backed by anything.
When the masses wakes up and realize the USD is monopoly money and has no value, everyone is going to run out to buy the gold
If yesterday's drop was just a fake, then the stocks shouldn't drop below their lowest levels today. So I am placing a buy stop limit order for 700 shares of TWM at $16.40/$16.50 and a sell short stop limit for 100 shares of FCX at $93.95/$93.90.
ReplyDeleteGIANTS! YES
ReplyDeleteCould be Mark.
ReplyDeleteBiggest recent regrets
Selling CF at 76
Selling APA at 86
buying UNG at 6.something .63 i think
I'm going to have to avoid selling 6's from now on.
Nice story about the paper and the candy. Quite a lesson in economics and politics, there. Better to keep the candy an ocean away it seems.
ReplyDeleteanon
ReplyDeletewhile I have your attention - other things I work on when not on 2nd avenue -fwiw
http://tinyurl.com/2ao4593
Just in case, I am placing a sell stop limit order for my 300 shares of TWM at $15.86/$15.84.
ReplyDeleteplatform question: I'm now trading futues, forex, options, stocks and etf's and I have opened too many accounts. Should I go with Fido+Infinity/Apex or just use Trade Station for everything?
ReplyDeleteHow does everyone else do it?
Bears need to keep this in mind:
ReplyDeleteEarnings estimates for S&P for 2010: $85/share. Current P/E on those earnings: 13.88.
Earnings estimates for S&P for 2011: $96/share. Current P/E on those earnings: 12.2.
While I don't yet believe the 2011 estimate, the 2010 estimate is pretty solid and will probably go up a little bit given companies are beating estimates for q3 over 70% of the time.