Earnings estimates for S&P for 2010: $85/share. Current P/E on those earnings: 13.88.
Earnings estimates for S&P for 2011: $96/share. Current P/E on those earnings: 12.2.
While I don't yet believe the 2011 estimate, the 2010 estimate is pretty solid and will probably go up a little bit given companies are beating estimates for q3 over 70% of the time.
Re: The World's A Nicer Place In My Beautiful Balloon/ Downer newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4817 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 09:29 #72327 (in reply to #72325) Of course, I would keep position sizes small until a sell-off ensues. There is no worse trauma in trading than being caught on the wrong end of a short-squeeze. I would know- having tried to short DELL in the nineties, and having also benefited greatly by being on the right side numerous times when prices 'appeared' unsustainable. So caution is warranted.
tof- It helps to know where your 'inside' edge came from re PIR. That was one I just couldn't figure out, having never been inside one of their stores.
+excellent balance sheet +cheap valuation +great same store sales growth +amazing turnaround = good management +they are starting up their online operation soon which should provide another source of growth +recent insider buying +what appeared to be underlying strength in stock
Adding to TZA @ 22.26 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4818 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 10:01 #72333 This can't end well. Of course, that could apply to me as well.
UUP slowly started to move up Submitted by jack black (892 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 10:05 #72334 Although betting on this is as emotionally tasking as betting on TZA at the end of August. I guess the best trades are the most difficult ones. I also added to QQQQ puts seeing the lack of strength in it. Double top in QQQQ?
reply Contact the author Bookmark this Ignore thread Ignore user VXX @ 13.44 Submitted by 2nd_ave (4820 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 10:08 #72335 Vad- I think you got it. I'm betting they start cranking out more buttons per minute per machine at the average clothing factory in Thailand. Now that we know the underlying metrics for VXX.
edit reply Bookmark this Ignore thread Re: UUP slowly started to move up newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4820 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 10:10 #72336 (in reply to #72334) emotionally tasking
Now there's an appropriate description of what day trading is all about, and a good explanation for why we're all so drained at the end of each day.
Hangin' with the bears newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4822 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 10:27 #72339 (a) Just isn't much fun. (b) And I mean 'hangin' in every sense of the word.
Re: UUP slowly started to move up newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4823 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 10:36 #72341 (in reply to #72337) jack- That's a good lesson in position sizing/amount at risk/stops. With large position sizes/amounts at risk, I don't any trader has the emotional stamina to hold through a drawdown. Unless he/she is emotionally detached to point of being a little 'off.'
The Parabolic rise in PIR was inevitable. The gross imbalance of wicker in the American home is very bullish for PIR. So if your bullish on wicker your bullish on PIR. Tiki anyone.
PIR jokes - There must be a million of them and many are good.
Personally, I still have a few items that are of good quality. I really like the wrought iron backless sitting bench with cushion and matching pillows at the foot of my bed.
THe BULLSHIT RALLY continues.Two weeks ago on CC I wrote how the market will continue to go up while everyone will be saying, "This is Bullshit" Everyone except TOF of coarse.
Bullshit Rally - Well, something's going on with commodities (does gold fit the mold?) that actually should help manufacturing assuming a trend develops.
CP, I don't know about the short term, but in the intermediate term I could see a rising dollar and rising market. Which would be negative for commodities. I think for this to happen we would see copper stable or rising while gold declines. I think gold is very toppy here and am looking to short. All apologies to cheapy and the entire CC community.
True, dollar is pretty beat up and a positive correlation is not impossible for equities and dollar. I currently believe a positive correlation isn't likely to morph into a long term trend though.
Of coarse as I wrote that I notice that markets reversed and I missed my SCO entry. THe Dollar must be rising SELL Sell Sell. Don't listen to me other than that Bullshit part.
Mid Term elections - Although I don't have strong positive feelings towards either party, I've come to the conclusion we might be better off staying the course on the democratic side. My only issue is one of clarification on the issues, which hopefully arrives prior to elections.
OK...Took profits in V. If we are going to reverse here, and it kinda feels like it, V won't hold up. Besides, it was a large position and the $'s are real.
My TWM trade, on the other hand, wasn't very lucky today. First, I got stopped out at $15.86 from the 300 shares of TWM I purchased yesterday at $16.06 -- a small loss. But then, my buy stop order for 700 shares was triggered at $16.40, and when I noticed it, TWM was at $16.38, and so I decided to sell it on the spot, thinking I was faked out once again. Right now, however, TWM is at $16.55 already, and I don't feel like chasing it.
To make my morning even worse, I got stopped out of my 1000 short shares of XHB at $15.85 (which I opened at $15.48) and THEN XHB turned down again.
The only bright spot is that I was able to buy 1000 shares of HNUZF at $2.75! Maybe buying NG was not a good idea two months ago, but now I think the buyers will be greatly rewarded -- the whole strip (January - April) is down to $4.00!
Added more REDF at $4.17. Stock is now down 35% from its recent highs. I moved all of my stock position (still holding calls) in BYD over to here. I still think this thing is a tremendous value given the amount of traffic going to its site BEFORE the India broadband spectrum kicks into gear and brings broadband internet to the masses in India (currently there are only 10 MILLION users of broadband internet in India vs a population of about 1.2 BILLION). REDF is the 10th most trafficked site in India. By comparison, MakeMyTrip.com (MMYT) is the 105th most trafficked. MMYT has a market cap that is 6 times REDF's.
Re: The World's A Nicer Place In My Beautiful Balloon/ Downer newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4827 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 14:08 #72375 (in reply to #72358) Dave M- You're right. If Uncle Ben's Converted Currency can't save us, we'll all be stuck in Somalia without a safety net.
I still ignorantly think that this is a BUYING opportunity. I'm still just as long this market as I was this morning and still think we're going to be higher. These selloffs are just working off the overbought conditions in the market.
Re: CAT down/ Dogs down also newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4829 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 14:27 #72379 (in reply to #72371) BAC, AA, XOM, INTC.
Just arrived back home from a morning MD appointment. I had to close flat prior to leaving, of course, and no telling whether I would have jumped back into short mode had I been trading.
When my own trades mark a reversal, I can either (a) hang myself by the thumbs or (b) fire up the grill for a good steak. If taking a multiple choice exam and at a loss, it's been statistically proven that choice (b) wins hands down (I can only say for sure this was true in the eighties).
edit reply Bookmark this Ignore thread Re: CAT down. Submitted by 2nd_ave (4829 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 14:27 #72380 (in reply to #72378) On a longer time frame (>2 weeks), I would agree. Over the next 2 weeks, I don't think so. We may go much lower. So I would not be carrying more than a pocketful of REDF for laughs. Seriously.
David- I exited TZA at a LOSS (albeit very small) prior to leaving. Can't tell you how much that adds to the fact the MD was LATE in seeing me to begin with.
On a second thought -- screw this! I am not placing a stop on my FCX short -- I am tired of getting stopped out! Looks like the market has entered an "indecision mode," where it will keep oscillating for some time, taking out stops in each direction. This often happens at intermediate tops. So I doubt there is a *sustainable* upside left for FCX in this rally -- it may just temporary break out to a new high, only to reverse down very quickly.
2nd- I had one yesterday. Too bad I don't have your genes. They took out a small chunk of my face. Basal Cell Carcinoma. I bet they take chunks out for the rest of my life.
My kids asked why, and I said so my face wont fall off...Which reminds me of this!
Re: Waving Goodbye, but from the lifeboat. newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4830 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 14:33 #72382 (in reply to #72357) jack- At least we're sailing in the one named 'Lost Opportunity.' We're not stuck on the Titanic.
Re: There are mosquitoes, there are vampires, newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4831 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 14:42 #72384 (in reply to #72383) To me California is more like a foreign country and a whole other economic model than the Midwest ;-)
If you walk around the big cities here, you'll notice it is a foreign country. With a DMZ that separates the North and South, no less.
You REDF/GMO guys- I can read the writing on the wall. Now I may be wrong. But I can live with that. What if you're wrong? Why not preserve some VERY NICE gains while you have them?
Speaking of laughs, let's say if some government official from perhaps the FED or Treasury were to mention the dollar shouldn't fall much more, wouldn't shorts be tempted to cover and create a phenomenon similar to what we're currently witnessing?
I had a 1/4" biopsy punch near my R shoulder done at Stanford to confirm an 'SK' (seborrheic keratosis). They were pretty sure that's what it was, but I wanted to be DAMNED sure. It healed quickly, and is quite unnoticeable unless you look closely.
damn bro, sorry to hear about that. rebekah is at the dr as we speak getting stitches taken out, i think this is her third round with the skin dr....hope it works out!
Re: TZA/VXX @ 23.25/13.42 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4833 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 15:27 #72391 (in reply to #72390) I must be in the twilight zone. Went through this around 22.25/13.42 earlier in the day. Not my day, obviously.
2nd - Let just explain where I'm coming from (as if you don't already know ;))... I can't count the number of times I've sold too soon only to have prices shoot up leaving me behind...
Actually, to my detriment, I'm probably a lost cause and had I listened yesterday I'd be jumping for joy today and sending you a box of strudel or something...
CP: You were right the Bears have no sack. I got whip sawed out of my short VXX position which is ok, but then the market reverses back up to mock me and my stops. I say hold on tight to your postion, but have a line in the molybdenum to get out if it crosses. 2nd always says cut losses quickly, but the second part of that axiom is let winners run!
Gold - Wonder how folks who jumped in last week are feeling right about now? There darn sure isn't enough of it around to pave a road or build a car, what will those folks do if/when they discover actual commodities are more desirable than those with a foot in either side of the opposite ditch?
"I must be in the twilight zone. Not my day, obviously."
That's how I feel as well, 2nd_ave. If I had kept my stop on FCX at $95.50, I could have reloaded it now at $96.50. I didn't go about chasing TWM in $16.50's because I *KNEW* the market would bounce before the close. But then, why did I remove my stop on FCX intraday??? Next time, I should trust my intuition.
Instead of just thinking about it, at some point soon might just actually adopt 2nd_ave's trading style -- making intuitive trading decision rather than those imposed on my by my rational mind.
Re: TZA/VXX > I'm bidding them good night. Cash/Cash bar newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4837 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 16:41 #72402 (in reply to #72391) Vad's right. Another day of fighting the tape- it's too much work.
We're at YTD and 2 YTD highs in the DOW and just below YTD highs in the S&P and still I'm seeing/hearing significant skepticism. I'm watching this Fast Money show and this is what I'm hearing. Too many people are shorting the market or simply not buying it.
[10:31] {Threei} *EIA NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES: +93 BCF VS. +82 TO +95 BCF ESTIMATE RANGE (related UNG USO ) [10:31] {Threei} lol [10:32] {Threei} inventory of natural gas will increase exponentially over the course of future history of mankind, to bitter disappointment of UNG traders [10:32] {Threei} that thing won't quit until it kills them all [10:33] {Threei} classic case of "it can't go any lower" [10:33] {Threei} except it can and does
BAC - Hmm, maybe we should think about buying some of this one, as Tim and Ben are reportedly fighting the Residential Mortgage Backed put-backs proposed for the GSE's. That's a huge chunk of vomit for BAC to have swallow and there's a good chance they won't make them?
I'm baack! With a new hip after 7 days. Feels good already but must use walker and then cane for a time.
Sold my GLD just prior to surgery. Good move. Did not sell or hedge a much smaller position in RBY (Rubicon Minerals). Bad move. Net for week is negative thanks to RBY. Am still in process of next move but mind has been discombobulated with overexposure to CNBC.
BAC - That's probably on it's own a good reason to be long this market, add that to the fact that CAT and AAPL have reasonable p/e's...?
Maybe we should think about being short this market just in case, unless we think BAC could help keep things floating a bit longer?
But S&P p/e seems pretty high, and also consider that we're back to April's high when GDP was 4% and retail sales were higher along with just about every other economic indicator.
TOF - What do you think of the S&P p/e, seems like we're pretty high and some weakness is beginning to show? I could perhaps see a slight push higher if BAC were to pull a rabit out of their hat by not having to eat GSE MBS's, but then a pullback immediately following or even on the positive news?
Chicken - S&P Earnings should come in at around $85/share this year and maybe higher because around 70% or so are beating again this quarter. If that's the case, the P/E is 13.8. That's below average. I think the market has more upside. I don't think the banks will be a big factor going forward...when this foreclosure-gate thing gets resolved I think we go to 1250.
Okay thanks, I guess the chart I was referencing must've been based upon old data. Yes, the foreclosure thing has a sticky part we just "learned" about concerning the lawsuits requiring BAC buy back of faulty MBS's, and the bigger flyer there are the faulty GSE MBS's originated through Countrywide.
I bet they find a way to work through it all, for the good of us all.
BEIJING (AP) -- Baidu Inc., which operates China's leading search engine, said Friday its third-quarter net profit more than doubled and revenue jumped 76 percent as online advertising surged.
Bears need to keep this in mind:
ReplyDeleteEarnings estimates for S&P for 2010: $85/share. Current P/E on those earnings: 13.88.
Earnings estimates for S&P for 2011: $96/share. Current P/E on those earnings: 12.2.
While I don't yet believe the 2011 estimate, the 2010 estimate is pretty solid and will probably go up a little bit given companies are beating estimates for q3 over 70% of the time.
weird...look at the home furnishings stocks the past few days: ETH, PIR, FBN. All are down big. I think this is a buying opportunity.
ReplyDeleteRe: The World's A Nicer Place In My Beautiful Balloon/ Downer newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4817 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 09:29 #72327 (in reply to #72325)
ReplyDeleteOf course, I would keep position sizes small until a sell-off ensues. There is no worse trauma in trading than being caught on the wrong end of a short-squeeze. I would know- having tried to short DELL in the nineties, and having also benefited greatly by being on the right side numerous times when prices 'appeared' unsustainable. So caution is warranted.
tof- It helps to know where your 'inside' edge came from re PIR. That was one I just couldn't figure out, having never been inside one of their stores.
ReplyDeletedid the unthinkable...went long REDF for a trade...at $4.38. position size is small.
ReplyDelete2nd - i was looking at a few things on PIR:
ReplyDelete+excellent balance sheet
+cheap valuation
+great same store sales growth
+amazing turnaround = good management
+they are starting up their online operation soon which should provide another source of growth
+recent insider buying
+what appeared to be underlying strength in stock
MGM looking like it found bottom. Probably a good time to buy...
ReplyDeleteAdding to TZA @ 22.26 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4818 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 10:01 #72333
ReplyDeleteThis can't end well. Of course, that could apply to me as well.
been looking at TZA but it sure doesn't look like S1 is holding, so I'm sitting on my hands
ReplyDeleteUUP slowly started to move up
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by jack black (892 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 10:05 #72334
Although betting on this is as emotionally tasking as betting on TZA at the end of August. I guess the best trades are the most difficult ones. I also added to QQQQ puts seeing the lack of strength in it. Double top in QQQQ?
reply Contact the author Bookmark this Ignore thread Ignore user
VXX @ 13.44
Submitted by 2nd_ave (4820 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 10:08 #72335
Vad- I think you got it. I'm betting they start cranking out more buttons per minute per machine at the average clothing factory in Thailand. Now that we know the underlying metrics for VXX.
edit reply Bookmark this Ignore thread
Re: UUP slowly started to move up newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4820 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 10:10 #72336 (in reply to #72334)
emotionally tasking
Now there's an appropriate description of what day trading is all about, and a good explanation for why we're all so drained at the end of each day.
tof
ReplyDeleteGO byd, redf!
GMO - So far I'm pleased, need to see a close better than $4.27.
ReplyDeleteCADC - Come on baby, I know you've had a decent run but you can do more...
Impulse move up newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4821 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 10:20 #72338
ReplyDeleteYeah, the TZA/VXX cuts are starting to sting
EBAY - Very nice indeed...
ReplyDeleteAMLN - working on a 12 break?
ReplyDeleteHangin' with the bears newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4822 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 10:27 #72339
ReplyDelete(a) Just isn't much fun.
(b) And I mean 'hangin' in every sense of the word.
VXX - Seems to be following a trend, glad it's not in my 401K...
ReplyDeleteThat video gave me a nice morning chuckle. I loved it. Those half tuxes, 1/2 Mariachi outfits were too cool.
ReplyDelete+93 for natty storage, initial reaction was drop in natty price by .07 or so - 4.48 to 4.41
ReplyDeleteport2013
Re: UUP slowly started to move up newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4823 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 10:36 #72341 (in reply to #72337)
ReplyDeletejack- That's a good lesson in position sizing/amount at risk/stops. With large position sizes/amounts at risk, I don't any trader has the emotional stamina to hold through a drawdown. Unless he/she is emotionally detached to point of being a little 'off.'
The Parabolic rise in PIR was inevitable. The gross imbalance of wicker in the American home is very bullish for PIR. So if your bullish on wicker your bullish on PIR.
ReplyDeleteTiki anyone.
So much for PIR being oversold. There is a lot of strength in that stock.
ReplyDeleteRB- Too funny!!!!
ReplyDeleteI missed what, a 70% move in RAS....Crickes...
ReplyDeleteBumpin' 1190, all we need is the help of a few bears?
ReplyDeleteCanada is full of bears, isn't she?
The sun'll come out
Tomorrow
So ya gotta hang on
'Til tomorrow
Come what may
Tomorrow! Tomorrow!
I love ya Tomorrow!
You're always
A day
A way!
BAC - In the crapper. Flush twice, it's a long way to sea... Bet I don't get mine for $3
By the way, who advised selling gold and buying BAC when it hit $3 in the great panic? Find that person and you will have found a real trader...
PIR jokes - There must be a million of them and many are good.
ReplyDeletePersonally, I still have a few items that are of good quality. I really like the wrought iron backless sitting bench with cushion and matching pillows at the foot of my bed.
Anybody figured out what's up with commodities? I figure China's "slowdown" is having an effect...
ReplyDeleteLooks like I sold my short on Natural Gas too early. Ugly. Encana getting canned for finally deciding to shut in gas for a while.
ReplyDeleteBYD - Still one hell of a short float, can't wait to see what happens when they cover!
ReplyDeleteAnd where'd our sharkie synopsis for the day go????
ReplyDelete- Day Go - Daylight comes and I wanna go home...
Added more REDF at $4.38.
ReplyDeleteTHe BULLSHIT RALLY continues.Two weeks ago on CC I wrote how the market will continue to go up while everyone will be saying, "This is Bullshit" Everyone except TOF of coarse.
ReplyDeleteBullshit Rally - Well, something's going on with commodities (does gold fit the mold?) that actually should help manufacturing assuming a trend develops.
ReplyDeleteoh my...this is bullshit!
ReplyDeletejust kidding. but it is setting up for some solid traps right here. my gut tells me its another bear trap.
CP, I don't know about the short term, but in the intermediate term I could see a rising dollar and rising market. Which would be negative for commodities. I think for this to happen we would see copper stable or rising while gold declines. I think gold is very toppy here and am looking to short. All apologies to cheapy and the entire CC community.
ReplyDeleteYea, since I can't identify a new reason for the selling my thought was bear trap as well...
ReplyDeleteTrue, dollar is pretty beat up and a positive correlation is not impossible for equities and dollar. I currently believe a positive correlation isn't likely to morph into a long term trend though.
ReplyDeleteTaking profits ahead of uncertain event?
ReplyDeleteOf coarse as I wrote that I notice that markets reversed and I missed my SCO entry. THe Dollar must be rising SELL Sell Sell. Don't listen to me other than that Bullshit part.
ReplyDeleteIt's situations like these where trading experience comes into play.
ReplyDeleteI'm still leaning toward a head-fake, chickenshit bears haven't followed through in ages.
ReplyDeleteAdded more REDF at $4.34.
ReplyDeleteMid Term elections - Although I don't have strong positive feelings towards either party, I've come to the conclusion we might be better off staying the course on the democratic side. My only issue is one of clarification on the issues, which hopefully arrives prior to elections.
ReplyDeleteAdded a little more REDF at $4.27. Position size is still pretty small. Not willing to load the boat yet.
ReplyDeletealrght...now added a pretty large size to REDF at $4.18 average
ReplyDeleteselloff is getting ugly now. could definitely be setting up for a reversal day similar to that one back in June.
ReplyDeleteSold my BYD at $7.64. Still holding the long dated calls.
ReplyDeleteJust shorted 100 shares of FCX at $95.15 -- why wait for my sell short stop at $93.95 to get triggered?
ReplyDeleteHPQ is going on a s/w shopping spree, the usual suspects, many of the ones I've mentioned here. Time for me to put together another basket.
ReplyDeleteOK...Took profits in V. If we are going to reverse here, and it kinda feels like it, V won't hold up. Besides, it was a large position and the $'s are real.
ReplyDeleteMy TWM trade, on the other hand, wasn't very lucky today. First, I got stopped out at $15.86 from the 300 shares of TWM I purchased yesterday at $16.06 -- a small loss. But then, my buy stop order for 700 shares was triggered at $16.40, and when I noticed it, TWM was at $16.38, and so I decided to sell it on the spot, thinking I was faked out once again. Right now, however, TWM is at $16.55 already, and I don't feel like chasing it.
ReplyDeleteTo make my morning even worse, I got stopped out of my 1000 short shares of XHB at $15.85 (which I opened at $15.48) and THEN XHB turned down again.
The only bright spot is that I was able to buy 1000 shares of HNUZF at $2.75! Maybe buying NG was not a good idea two months ago, but now I think the buyers will be greatly rewarded -- the whole strip (January - April) is down to $4.00!
JB- Keep us posted.
ReplyDeleteAdded more REDF at $4.17. Stock is now down 35% from its recent highs. I moved all of my stock position (still holding calls) in BYD over to here. I still think this thing is a tremendous value given the amount of traffic going to its site BEFORE the India broadband spectrum kicks into gear and brings broadband internet to the masses in India (currently there are only 10 MILLION users of broadband internet in India vs a population of about 1.2 BILLION). REDF is the 10th most trafficked site in India. By comparison, MakeMyTrip.com (MMYT) is the 105th most trafficked. MMYT has a market cap that is 6 times REDF's.
ReplyDeleteI noticed four decimal places showing up in my pricing a few minutes ago, computers buying?
ReplyDeleteJust got back from a morning MD appt, and I am pissed- no way to know if I would have jumped back in the short side...
ReplyDeleteRe: The World's A Nicer Place In My Beautiful Balloon/ Downer newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4827 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 14:08 #72375 (in reply to #72358)
ReplyDeleteDave M- You're right. If Uncle Ben's Converted Currency can't save us, we'll all be stuck in Somalia without a safety net.
Adding to PXP @ 26.10
ReplyDeleteI still ignorantly think that this is a BUYING opportunity. I'm still just as long this market as I was this morning and still think we're going to be higher. These selloffs are just working off the overbought conditions in the market.
ReplyDeletePlacing a stop on my FCX short at $95.50
ReplyDelete2nd- I thought your were short (TZA)?
ReplyDelete2nd_ave -- did you exit your TZA before going to MD? If so, then we are in the same boat...
ReplyDeleteGold still cratering - Kinda looks like a trend to me, too bad I didn't short PM's but damn if I can figure them out...
ReplyDeleteRe: CAT down/ Dogs down also newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4829 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 14:27 #72379 (in reply to #72371)
ReplyDeleteBAC, AA, XOM, INTC.
Just arrived back home from a morning MD appointment. I had to close flat prior to leaving, of course, and no telling whether I would have jumped back into short mode had I been trading.
When my own trades mark a reversal, I can either (a) hang myself by the thumbs or (b) fire up the grill for a good steak. If taking a multiple choice exam and at a loss, it's been statistically proven that choice (b) wins hands down (I can only say for sure this was true in the eighties).
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Re: CAT down.
Submitted by 2nd_ave (4829 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 14:27 #72380 (in reply to #72378)
On a longer time frame (>2 weeks), I would agree. Over the next 2 weeks, I don't think so. We may go much lower. So I would not be carrying more than a pocketful of REDF for laughs. Seriously.
TOF - I have the same feeling, call me stupid...
ReplyDeleteDavid- I exited TZA at a LOSS (albeit very small) prior to leaving. Can't tell you how much that adds to the fact the MD was LATE in seeing me to begin with.
ReplyDeleteOn a second thought -- screw this! I am not placing a stop on my FCX short -- I am tired of getting stopped out! Looks like the market has entered an "indecision mode," where it will keep oscillating for some time, taking out stops in each direction. This often happens at intermediate tops. So I doubt there is a *sustainable* upside left for FCX in this rally -- it may just temporary break out to a new high, only to reverse down very quickly.
ReplyDelete2nd- I had one yesterday. Too bad I don't have your genes. They took out a small chunk of my face. Basal Cell Carcinoma. I bet they take chunks out for the rest of my life.
ReplyDeleteMy kids asked why, and I said so my face wont fall off...Which reminds me of this!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgrX7uOZqHI
Re: Waving Goodbye, but from the lifeboat. newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4830 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 14:33 #72382 (in reply to #72357)
ReplyDeletejack- At least we're sailing in the one named 'Lost Opportunity.' We're not stuck on the Titanic.
Early removal is key, and should take care of it.
ReplyDeleteRe: There are mosquitoes, there are vampires, newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4831 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 14:42 #72384 (in reply to #72383)
ReplyDeleteTo me California is more like a foreign country and a whole other economic model than the Midwest ;-)
If you walk around the big cities here, you'll notice it is a foreign country. With a DMZ that separates the North and South, no less.
You REDF/GMO guys- I can read the writing on the wall. Now I may be wrong. But I can live with that. What if you're wrong? Why not preserve some VERY NICE gains while you have them?
ReplyDeleteYeah, it's tiny 1/4". I'm not worried about it. I always figured it would be on my nose or ears though.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of laughs, let's say if some government official from perhaps the FED or Treasury were to mention the dollar shouldn't fall much more, wouldn't shorts be tempted to cover and create a phenomenon similar to what we're currently witnessing?
ReplyDeleteI had a 1/4" biopsy punch near my R shoulder done at Stanford to confirm an 'SK' (seborrheic keratosis). They were pretty sure that's what it was, but I wanted to be DAMNED sure. It healed quickly, and is quite unnoticeable unless you look closely.
ReplyDelete2nd - I'm all for preserving gains if I only knew about whats really going on I'd do something other than sit on my hands...
ReplyDeleteNews flash: "Economic indicators are not consistent with a stable market or stable growth"
ReplyDeleteI'll get the results in a few days.
ReplyDeletedamn bro, sorry to hear about that. rebekah is at the dr as we speak getting stitches taken out, i think this is her third round with the skin dr....hope it works out!
ReplyDeleteTZA/VXX @ 23.25/13.42 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4832 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 15:17 #72390
ReplyDeleteLater
I have to admit REDF does kinda look interesting here on a technical level.
ReplyDeleteBro- NBFD man. This type of skin cancer doesn't spread. More like a pimple.
Re: TZA/VXX @ 23.25/13.42 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4833 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 15:27 #72391 (in reply to #72390)
ReplyDeleteI must be in the twilight zone. Went through this around 22.25/13.42 earlier in the day. Not my day, obviously.
2nd - Let just explain where I'm coming from (as if you don't already know ;))... I can't count the number of times I've sold too soon only to have prices shoot up leaving me behind...
ReplyDeleteCP- Correct me if I'm wrong.
ReplyDelete(a) They've ALREADY shot up.
(b) You're holding a relatively large position.
(c) The last time it sold off, you were kind of depressed about it.
Oh I get it, 2nd wants my shares (he, he!). ;)
ReplyDeleteIf you can answer 'none of the above,' then I have no problem with you continuing to hold.
ReplyDelete(c) True, b/c (b) is also true. Otherwise I'd be buying now... ;)
ReplyDeleteYea, I'm no daytrader!!!
2nd - if i had gains i would be harvesting them right now. but i don't have them yet.
ReplyDeleteMark - sorry to hear that brother but it sounds like it ain't serious.
ReplyDeleteImbalances..
ReplyDeleteBUY- BAC/CHK/X
SELL- WFC/XOM
Actually, to my detriment, I'm probably a lost cause and had I listened yesterday I'd be jumping for joy today and sending you a box of strudel or something...
ReplyDeleteand 2nd, i'm ok with a 10% drop because i think it will ultimately bounce up to the $5 range...at which point i would reconsider.
ReplyDeleteComplete with an attractive ribbon tied into a bow on top. ;)
ReplyDeleteI'm quite sincere about that, I'm not yanking your chain at all, man!
ReplyDeleteSinclair: "QE to infinity and beyond!"
ReplyDeleteLet me add to that: "Forward, into the past!"...
CP:
ReplyDeleteYou were right the Bears have no sack. I got whip sawed out of my short VXX position which is ok, but then the market reverses back up to mock me and my stops. I say hold on tight to your postion, but have a line in the molybdenum to get out if it crosses. 2nd always says cut losses quickly, but the second part of that axiom is let winners run!
Gold - Wonder how folks who jumped in last week are feeling right about now? There darn sure isn't enough of it around to pave a road or build a car, what will those folks do if/when they discover actual commodities are more desirable than those with a foot in either side of the opposite ditch?
ReplyDelete"I must be in the twilight zone. Not my day, obviously."
ReplyDeleteThat's how I feel as well, 2nd_ave. If I had kept my stop on FCX at $95.50, I could have reloaded it now at $96.50. I didn't go about chasing TWM in $16.50's because I *KNEW* the market would bounce before the close. But then, why did I remove my stop on FCX intraday??? Next time, I should trust my intuition.
Instead of just thinking about it, at some point soon might just actually adopt 2nd_ave's trading style -- making intuitive trading decision rather than those imposed on my by my rational mind.
Just for the record, I fully admit having the tar beat outta me the past coupla days but I'm far from done getting my ass kicked!
ReplyDeleteAMZN bid 156...
ReplyDeleteMoved 1/3 of my cash into the SPY index fund at the close.
ReplyDeletewatch for wild moves in SNDK shares...at first glance it looks like they crushed earnings estimates and matched revenues estimates.
ReplyDeleteA lot of noise today, but the trend is still up. I just like reminding myself.
ReplyDeleteBob
SNDK bid 40...
ReplyDeleteRe: TZA/VXX > I'm bidding them good night. Cash/Cash bar newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4837 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 16:41 #72402 (in reply to #72391)
ReplyDeleteVad's right. Another day of fighting the tape- it's too much work.
We're at YTD and 2 YTD highs in the DOW and just below YTD highs in the S&P and still I'm seeing/hearing significant skepticism. I'm watching this Fast Money show and this is what I'm hearing. Too many people are shorting the market or simply not buying it.
ReplyDeleteVad on UNG...
ReplyDelete[10:31] {Threei} *EIA NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES: +93 BCF VS. +82 TO +95 BCF ESTIMATE RANGE (related UNG USO )
[10:31] {Threei} lol
[10:32] {Threei} inventory of natural gas will increase exponentially over the course of future history of mankind, to bitter disappointment of UNG traders
[10:32] {Threei} that thing won't quit until it kills them all
[10:33] {Threei} classic case of "it can't go any lower"
[10:33] {Threei} except it can and does
Vad neglected to mention the futures rollover icing fancifying the top of that UNH strudel...
ReplyDeleteBAC - Hmm, maybe we should think about buying some of this one, as Tim and Ben are reportedly fighting the Residential Mortgage Backed put-backs proposed for the GSE's. That's a huge chunk of vomit for BAC to have swallow and there's a good chance they won't make them?
ReplyDeleteAMZN - E-gatz, just look at that p/e... Pretty scary, much worse than any badly dressed Halloween goblin.
ReplyDeleteI'm baack! With a new hip after 7 days. Feels good already but must use walker and then cane for a time.
ReplyDeleteSold my GLD just prior to surgery. Good move. Did not sell or hedge a much smaller position in RBY (Rubicon Minerals). Bad move. Net for week is negative thanks to RBY. Am still in process of next move but mind has been discombobulated with overexposure to CNBC.
BAC - That's probably on it's own a good reason to be long this market, add that to the fact that CAT and AAPL have reasonable p/e's...?
ReplyDeleteMaybe we should think about being short this market just in case, unless we think BAC could help keep things floating a bit longer?
But S&P p/e seems pretty high, and also consider that we're back to April's high when GDP was 4% and retail sales were higher along with just about every other economic indicator.
http://www.multpl.com/
Welcome "home"! Better do exactly as instructed by your physician, I hear they've almost got it down to a science these days.
ReplyDeleteillini - good to hear that everything went well. here's to a speedy recovery!
ReplyDeleteTOF - What do you think of the S&P p/e, seems like we're pretty high and some weakness is beginning to show? I could perhaps see a slight push higher if BAC were to pull a rabit out of their hat by not having to eat GSE MBS's, but then a pullback immediately following or even on the positive news?
ReplyDeleteChicken - S&P Earnings should come in at around $85/share this year and maybe higher because around 70% or so are beating again this quarter. If that's the case, the P/E is 13.8. That's below average. I think the market has more upside. I don't think the banks will be a big factor going forward...when this foreclosure-gate thing gets resolved I think we go to 1250.
ReplyDeleteOkay thanks, I guess the chart I was referencing must've been based upon old data. Yes, the foreclosure thing has a sticky part we just "learned" about concerning the lawsuits requiring BAC buy back of faulty MBS's, and the bigger flyer there are the faulty GSE MBS's originated through Countrywide.
ReplyDeleteI bet they find a way to work through it all, for the good of us all.
Illini- Great news!!!! Got my hands full right now with the Giants :) Welcome back...
ReplyDeleteMark - You might wanna have a doc take a look at your "giants" should things get too out of hand...
ReplyDeleteBetter safe than sorry!
welcome back illini !! :)
ReplyDeletewe missed you
BEIJING (AP) -- Baidu Inc., which operates China's leading search engine, said Friday its third-quarter net profit more than doubled and revenue jumped 76 percent as online advertising surged.
ReplyDeleteThe longer we stay here and work off the overbought conditions, I suspect we go higher.
ReplyDeletewhere is everyone?
ReplyDeletehttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704631504575531680628622398.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
ReplyDeleteShould bode well for REDF longer term.
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ReplyDelete