Distractions from the real world will keep me away from the markets today. Annual state seminar today (similar to the national ones I attended in Vegas last December).
I see REDF is already climbing the charts- may it be a top percentage gainer today!
VXX > XXX newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4838 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 - 10:19 #72435 They should rename VXX and call it XXX- the adult version of the Nigerian 419 scam.
Re: VXX > XXX newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4839 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 - 10:41 #72440 (in reply to #72436) I'm actually thinking about reopening TZA/VXX. But I'll be attending a convention today.
So the choice is between giving undivided attention to the seminars, or opening positions in TZA/VXX and checking prices every 5 minutes.
I have to do the right thing and walk away. (Reminds me of the time Jack Nicholson threw his PC out the window, saying 'How am I supposed to get any work done?' I think he was referring to another kind of obsession, though.)
FCX: I got a feeling that it is locally oversold and can bounce to least $94. Alternative, if FCX breaks below its recent intraday low at $92, then there will be a good chance of the uptrend being over for real. At that point, however, one should be weary of a bounce to a lower high, but that bounce might start once FCX drops a little ways below the recent low at $92.
Added to my calls position in BYD just now. Bought some November $9 Calls at $0.20. I'm keeping a few grand in these calls in the event they get bought out, which I still think is a distinct possibility. If they do then these calls would go up about 20 fold (assuming a buyout price of $13 or $14). I now have November $9 and $11 calls and March 2011 $8 calls. Earnings are on Monday.
REDF - Does look appealing, I read a blurb somewhere a day or two ago that an Indian internet company reported disappointing earnings and so in my mind I'm connecting the dots to REDF's sympathetic weakness?
Placing a buy limit for 500 more shares of TWM at $16. Today looks like a range-bound day to me, and so one should play reversals at the extremes of the daily range rather than breakouts.
Nissan Leaf - An all-electric car with a 100 mile range.
Now that's not too bad, especially if they can get purchase and operating costs in line with conventional gasoline automobiles. Battery charge time is pretty long though, and an exchange strategy won't work b/c the battery is integrated into the chassis.
It's hard to outperform a buy-and-hold strategy during a parabolic move up, which is the one gold/silver are having on a 5-year chart (and a 3-month chart). So I decided not to wait too long and reloaded at $17 the 250 shares of CEF I sold at $17.91 (1/3 of my original position). I also placed a buy limit order for 250 more shares at $16.
BAC- I only have a 1/3 position. My guess is this whole mortgage mess will blow over and is nothing more than political BS along with some sloppy paper work. If I'm right, BAC's leverage will be huge.
Right now, really, only BAC/WFC/JPM/C are underwriting right now.
As I had expected, TWM did have a brief break of its daily low at $16 and so my buy limit order for 500 shares was triggered at $16. I am placing a sell limit order for these 500 shares at $16.10 -- can't expect much more of a move than that in such a directionless market...
The latest Commitment of Traders report just came out and the net long positions among Managed Money and Nonreportable (small) traders is still at a record high. So I have just re-shorted 50 shares of FCX at $93.80 and placed a sell short limit at $94 for another 50 shares.
When does the Obama administration present their enormous idea for working out the employment and housing crises? Financial institutions are supposedly flush with cash, the pump is primed and the fire is raging on...???
Sounds pretty much standard affair, I'd try to find out more on which regions and markets they're into but Agency MBS's are backed well and I don't see how that can be renegotiated...
"CYS is a specialty finance company that was created with the objective of achieving consistent risk-adjusted investment income. We seek to achieve this objective by investing on a leveraged basis in residential mortgage pass-through securities for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by the Federal National Mortgage Association, or Fannie Mae, the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, or Freddie Mac, or the Government National Mortgage Association, or Ginnie Mae, and collateralized by single-family residential mortgage loans. We refer to these securities as Agency RMBS."
Probably dumb but I moved another 33% of my cash into the SPY fund at the close. Also bought a little STT again at $40.33 today. I'm now about 90% long.
ELKO - A number of farmers in Eureka County's Diamond Valley aren't happy with a trust agreement General Moly reached with the Eureka Producers Cooperative and want to talk with subsidiary Eureka Moly.
"We want to reopen negotiations with Eureka Moly," said Denise Moyle, one of the growers in a new association called Diamond Natural Resource Protection and Conservation Association. "What we are looking for is for Eureka Moly to come back to the table for a problem that is very real.""
My sell short limit for 50 shares of FCX got triggered at $94 just before the close, and so I have now reloaded at the average price of $93.90 the 100 shares of FCX I covered today at $93.30. So by now I have raised the cost basis of these 100 short shares to $97.75.
Also, I got stuck with my large TWM position of 1000 shares, which I entered today at the average price of $16.05. This price is pretty close to the bottom of the recent range of TWM, so it is not such a bad entry. If the market rockets on Monday after the G20 summit, then my TWM and FCX short will simply decrease the potential gains I might have on the long side. I suspect that my current position is pretty much market-neutral. Monday will show. :)
David - your UNG position is set to rocket now. I sold mine today. I screwed this trade up from the beggining because it was only suppossed to be a TRADE, not an investment. Looking back at the trade, I bought, or started buying on 9/15 and I should have been stopped out on 9/20 at the latest. OH well, next time I'll use a producer like SWN or BEXP and I'll probably start the position off with short puts or covered calls.
Hey Mark - Have fun. I haven't had a chance to look closely at RAS...looks like a repeat of last quarter's earnings at first glance: gap up with a sharp selloff. Taxable earnings were not that great. I kinda stopped following it closely after it ran up like 50%.
VXX > XXX newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4838 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 - 10:19 #72435
ReplyDeleteThey should rename VXX and call it XXX- the adult version of the Nigerian 419 scam.
Re: VXX > XXX newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4839 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 - 10:41 #72440 (in reply to #72436)
ReplyDeleteI'm actually thinking about reopening TZA/VXX. But I'll be attending a convention today.
So the choice is between giving undivided attention to the seminars, or opening positions in TZA/VXX and checking prices every 5 minutes.
I have to do the right thing and walk away. (Reminds me of the time Jack Nicholson threw his PC out the window, saying 'How am I supposed to get any work done?' I think he was referring to another kind of obsession, though.)
edit reply Bookmark this
Breakout Friday?
ReplyDeleteDamn...I'm really busy today, but this market is SOOOOOOO slow.
ReplyDeleteHo humm, when do the strong correlations begin to fade and prices go their own separate ways?
ReplyDeleteSCO might be able to get it going after all...
ReplyDeleteRBY - Is it bottoming here?
ReplyDeleteBreakout Friday - That would make my day...
ReplyDeleteCADC - Probably a sell here depending on your time horizon.
ReplyDeleteG20 - Nothing came from the last one as I recall, a pretty sure bet nothing comes from this one.
ReplyDelete"Major healthcare fraud scheme uncovered in Miami"
ReplyDeleteThis is how the health care system is rescued, the fraud is rampant.
Added more REDF at $4.12.
ReplyDeleteG20 - So, if nothing comes from this one we can pretty much count on the same old "currency war" to continue.
ReplyDeleteYHOO doing quite well today.
So has anyone really presented a comprehensive plan for jobs creation? It doesn't sound like there's a flood of ideas...
ReplyDeleteno breakout coming with FCX acting this way.
ReplyDeleteI looked at today's intraday TWM chart, and before I had the time to think, I just bought 500 shares of TWM at $16.10.
ReplyDeletebought a few October 22 $119 puts at $0.80 on SPY just for intraday speculation.
ReplyDeleteAdded a few more SPY puts at $0.72, mainly as a hedge to my longs.
ReplyDeleteRAS - Looks like earnings didn't impress?
ReplyDeleteSHZile fizzle
ReplyDeleteSHZ - Yep, thought REE might be getting it together around noon on 10.50 break, but that fizzled too...
ReplyDeleteGold - Is it down due to inflation, disinflation, or pump and dump?
ReplyDeleteGold - 20SMA failed, heading for the 50SMA now? I guess we're seeing inflation now, assuming gold's climb was on deflation, and/or vice-versa?
ReplyDeleteAnd who the hell is Yahwe, anyway?
Just closed my FCX short, on an impulse, at $93.32 (which I was shorting continuously since $97).
ReplyDeleteFCX: I got a feeling that it is locally oversold and can bounce to least $94. Alternative, if FCX breaks below its recent intraday low at $92, then there will be a good chance of the uptrend being over for real. At that point, however, one should be weary of a bounce to a lower high, but that bounce might start once FCX drops a little ways below the recent low at $92.
ReplyDeleteSo I just placed a sell short stop limit order at $92/91.90 for 100 shares of FCX.
ReplyDeletePCP - Kicks ass, takes names.
ReplyDeleteClosed my options at $0.89 that I bought at $0.76 average.
ReplyDeleteAdded to my calls position in BYD just now. Bought some November $9 Calls at $0.20. I'm keeping a few grand in these calls in the event they get bought out, which I still think is a distinct possibility. If they do then these calls would go up about 20 fold (assuming a buyout price of $13 or $14). I now have November $9 and $11 calls and March 2011 $8 calls. Earnings are on Monday.
ReplyDeleteAdded some more REDF at $4.08.
ReplyDeleteTaking profits on BYD here. 8.8%. I'm kinda betting on a little pull back off the PENN upgrades today.
ReplyDeleteVery happy with how PXP has traded lately.
Thinking very hard about REDF....
ReplyDeleteSeems like going into the weekend the past few weeks has been somewhat of a harrowing experience for longs.
ReplyDeleteREDF - Does look appealing, I read a blurb somewhere a day or two ago that an Indian internet company reported disappointing earnings and so in my mind I'm connecting the dots to REDF's sympathetic weakness?
ReplyDeleteWhen does REDF report?
Mark, have you been on the horn with MBG re: BAC, etc.?
ReplyDeleteTOF- Any opinion on RAS earnings?
ReplyDeleteCP- Monday. We're having lunch. I'm kinda inclined to add to BAC on weakness for a long term hold.
ReplyDeleteThinking of the most unloved energy source and looking at the basing pattern in CLNE....
ReplyDeleteV- Man, I was hoping for a sympathy entry today in reaction to AXP earnings.
ReplyDeletePlacing a buy limit for 500 more shares of TWM at $16. Today looks like a range-bound day to me, and so one should play reversals at the extremes of the daily range rather than breakouts.
ReplyDeleteNissan Leaf - An all-electric car with a 100 mile range.
ReplyDeleteNow that's not too bad, especially if they can get purchase and operating costs in line with conventional gasoline automobiles. Battery charge time is pretty long though, and an exchange strategy won't work b/c the battery is integrated into the chassis.
BAC - Yea, I saw it going for $11.3X yesterday and was feeling the magnetic flux pulse generators (whatever those are) working.
ReplyDeleteIt's hard to outperform a buy-and-hold strategy during a parabolic move up, which is the one gold/silver are having on a 5-year chart (and a 3-month chart). So I decided not to wait too long and reloaded at $17 the 250 shares of CEF I sold at $17.91 (1/3 of my original position). I also placed a buy limit order for 250 more shares at $16.
ReplyDeleteBAC- I only have a 1/3 position. My guess is this whole mortgage mess will blow over and is nothing more than political BS along with some sloppy paper work. If I'm right, BAC's leverage will be huge.
ReplyDeleteRight now, really, only BAC/WFC/JPM/C are underwriting right now.
At the same time, I am placing a sell limit order at $18 for the 250 shares of CEF I have just picked up at $17.
ReplyDeleteAny of you guys have a take on CYS? Data in FINVIZ is pretty compelling.
ReplyDeleteGood lord....I'd rather have the 3-4K swings in my port than a day like this.
ReplyDeleteAs I had expected, TWM did have a brief break of its daily low at $16 and so my buy limit order for 500 shares was triggered at $16. I am placing a sell limit order for these 500 shares at $16.10 -- can't expect much more of a move than that in such a directionless market...
ReplyDeleteCYS - Just like most REIT's, wuold want to drill down into the quality of their MBS's and find out if their income is guaranteed and by whom.
ReplyDeleteI think of these strictly as dividend income plays, and you want to make sure their div remains safe.
CYS itself, I don't know if their assets are located in good RE markets, or if they're GSE backed...
CP- That's what I'm trying to find out.
ReplyDeleteThe latest Commitment of Traders report just came out and the net long positions among Managed Money and Nonreportable (small) traders is still at a record high. So I have just re-shorted 50 shares of FCX at $93.80 and placed a sell short limit at $94 for another 50 shares.
ReplyDeleteWhen does the Obama administration present their enormous idea for working out the employment and housing crises? Financial institutions are supposedly flush with cash, the pump is primed and the fire is raging on...???
ReplyDeleteImbalances....
ReplyDeleteBUY- C/WFC/MS/APC/CHK/AA
SELL- None I can find.
Sounds pretty much standard affair, I'd try to find out more on which regions and markets they're into but Agency MBS's are backed well and I don't see how that can be renegotiated...
ReplyDelete"CYS is a specialty finance company that was created with the objective of achieving consistent risk-adjusted investment income. We seek to achieve this objective by investing on a leveraged basis in residential mortgage pass-through securities for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by the Federal National Mortgage Association, or Fannie Mae, the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, or Freddie Mac, or the Government National Mortgage Association, or Ginnie Mae, and collateralized by single-family residential mortgage loans. We refer to these securities as Agency RMBS."
http://www.cypresssharpridge.com/
Not so bad. +.51% for the day.
ReplyDeleteProbably dumb but I moved another 33% of my cash into the SPY fund at the close. Also bought a little STT again at $40.33 today. I'm now about 90% long.
ReplyDelete-.51%? I got royally jipped, down 1.2%!
ReplyDeleteNo sorry, that should be -1.04%...
ReplyDeleteGMO - Some not so good news, still sorting this out but it's probably going to pressure share price:
ReplyDelete"Some growers unhappy with General Moly trust
ADELLA HARDING Mining Editor elkodaily.com | Posted: Thursday, October 21, 2010 3:01 pm |
ELKO - A number of farmers in Eureka County's Diamond Valley aren't happy with a trust agreement General Moly reached with the Eureka Producers Cooperative and want to talk with subsidiary Eureka Moly.
"We want to reopen negotiations with Eureka Moly," said Denise Moyle, one of the growers in a new association called Diamond Natural Resource Protection and Conservation Association. "What we are looking for is for Eureka Moly to come back to the table for a problem that is very real.""
http://elkodaily.com/mining/article_6849a5da-dd5f-11df-98e8-001cc4c002e0.html
My sell short limit for 50 shares of FCX got triggered at $94 just before the close, and so I have now reloaded at the average price of $93.90 the 100 shares of FCX I covered today at $93.30. So by now I have raised the cost basis of these 100 short shares to $97.75.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I got stuck with my large TWM position of 1000 shares, which I entered today at the average price of $16.05. This price is pretty close to the bottom of the recent range of TWM, so it is not such a bad entry. If the market rockets on Monday after the G20 summit, then my TWM and FCX short will simply decrease the potential gains I might have on the long side. I suspect that my current position is pretty much market-neutral. Monday will show. :)
Just about ready to leave for the weekend. Tourny all weekend in Sacto. Man I hope it doesn't rain ALL weekend. Tough on lill' H.
ReplyDeleteShould be a good tourny. Kendra's team is in the top bracket out of 5.
As is my standing policy, I'll bring my computer if any of you need an analysis of a stock that can't wait till Sunday ;)
It only rains in Cali every other day from Thanksgiving through mid-April.
ReplyDeleteDavid - your UNG position is set to rocket now. I sold mine today. I screwed this trade up from the beggining because it was only suppossed to be a TRADE, not an investment. Looking back at the trade, I bought, or started buying on 9/15 and I should have been stopped out on 9/20 at the latest. OH well, next time I'll use a producer like SWN or BEXP and I'll probably start the position off with short puts or covered calls.
ReplyDeleteHey Mark - Have fun. I haven't had a chance to look closely at RAS...looks like a repeat of last quarter's earnings at first glance: gap up with a sharp selloff. Taxable earnings were not that great. I kinda stopped following it closely after it ran up like 50%.
ReplyDelete