http://tinyurl.com/ybavlcy
Ooh, see the fire is sweepin'
My very street today
Burns like a red coal carpet
Mad bull lost its way
Bears need to clear the roads, drop off the (foot)bridges and head for the underground tunnels.
My Lai morning.
Swapped positions into the close- sold the SSO, opened OAKBX in the buy-and-hold.
+3-4% into end-of-month Friday not out of the question.
ReplyDelete2nd_ave -- aren't you concerned about the fact that the downtrend in $USD is over for now and $USD will most likely move even higher until the QE2 announcement? Or is the fact that the market closed essentially flat today despite a higher $USD is signaling to you that the equities want to move up regardless of anything else?
ReplyDeleteDavid- There is no way we're not going up. Too much firepower- people want to buy (I'm basing this on the price action during the last two sell-offs), the Fed wants to keep the party going (at least ostensibly to counter downside risks), and bears can't get out of their own way.
ReplyDeleteCP- That's Fing b.s. man. Why the hell didn't you tell me about the squirrels a week ago.
ReplyDelete+.34 today. I'll take that after the start today. Yikes.
ReplyDeletemarkie,
ReplyDeletehow about visa? Visa Inc. on Wednesday said that its fiscal fourth-quarter profit rose 51 percent
V will double in price by December 2011.
ReplyDeleteShanghai back above 3000.
ReplyDeleteVB- I've traded V since it's IPO and have done very well with it. Last go at it was off it's recent lows. I switched from my normal position size and this last time got in and out with 1000 shares.
ReplyDeleteI re-opened AH today @ 77.80 with a more standard 300 shares. I almost hope it goes down further.
GET OUT!!!!!.....YESSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteThat's via MVG.
ReplyDeleteSHARK - in case you are reading
ReplyDeleteFrom the WAYBACK archives
Posted by: alexx at October 29, 2007 8:58 AM
POG down some $8 in just half an hour. Currently $786. Anyone thinking of shorting it?
Posted by: shark_attack at October 29, 2007 9:17 AM
shorting gold???
one only shorts a dying asset, not one that's in an awesome uptrend.
shorting a rising asset is the way to poverty and madness.
Lovelock, Nv. 40 Acres $100
ReplyDeletecp
ReplyDeleteno brainer for me. Love Luck? I am heading there Monday. Got my uhaul loaded up!
I spent one night in Lovelock mid-August 1990 during my solo trip from Ann Arbor to SF. Last night before arriving in the City.
ReplyDelete2nd.
ReplyDeletewelll.....
did you get lucky?
40 Ac., tax $100/yr. You've only got a few hours to get your bid in on EBAY if you want it...
ReplyDeletevb- That's Love LOCK. You may want to reconsider.
ReplyDelete2nd,
ReplyDeletehere is one to save this for your son- headlines today
Wells Fargo erred in thousands of foreclosures- AP
Wells Fargo admitted Wednesday it made mistakes in the paperwork for thousands of foreclosure cases and promised to fix it
OH NO
ReplyDeletesee how bad my LUCK is?? (or maybe my eyesight!) lol
I'd pick lot #6 even though it's oddly shaped and harder to fence it has an "unimproved" road leading to and through the property.
ReplyDeleteI don't know the terrain very well/if road is necessary or not.
Unreal. I've been too Lovelock also. That accounts for everyone whose been there :)
ReplyDeleteYou can buy a gold claim on EBAY as well...
ReplyDeletewatching the giants??
ReplyDeletemark what were you doing in love LOCK???
ReplyDeleteI bet you both have stories.
I have never been there, the closest I got was Winnemucca
Lovelock - I can't say I've been there, probably have but don't recall. It looks halfway decent but in the middle of nowhere.
ReplyDeletecp -
ReplyDeleteeww,. like an easement? I don't like that lot.
but, find one with water and big enough for a double wide
Oh yea, I probably drove past on my way to Yosemite, Lovelock's 100 miles east of Reno.
ReplyDeleteNo, it doesn't say easement on the plot, just unimproved road.
ReplyDeleteAll these lots are large enough for whatever you might want, even a stone castle. You want water, drill a well.
I don't know about electric power though, that might be a trick.
yes 109 miles from Genoa.
ReplyDeletePS
I am moving back to genoa on monday. After 5 years. I am finally going home. VERY HAPPY> GREAT PLACE - with Llamas
Heck, depending on the terrain and assuming a dozed road isn't necessary you could choose from any of the four lots currently for sale.
ReplyDeleteI don't think I'd want to live quite this far from civilization, I'm far enough already.
Here's the plot, this section is a few miles off I-80, probably dirt road.
ReplyDeletehttp://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?VISuperSize&item=320599494349
REDF - Shorts might get covered in curry tomorrow...
ReplyDeleteVB- No good story. 2nd has all of those. Just a stay over on the way to WY....All though there was this really cute girl at the bar :)
ReplyDeleteI thought "going home" was the south. What's up?
Technically I still don't like RBY.
ReplyDeletehi cp
ReplyDeletecan't get that link to work. seriously, let me know if you want me to go check it out.; nevada is cheap now. it is a great state just ask me, I keep going back.
redf. what is going on there? It would more good news if true!
now if the giants win!
okay now I must sleep!
Sleep!!! It's the World Series!
ReplyDeleteWe should have the next get together in Loveluck. lock
ReplyDeleteno, home sweet home for me is that carson valley.
more later!
My 9 year old daughter could play right field better than Guerrero.
ReplyDeleteSorry about the link, let me find the ebay listing again and I'll post it.
ReplyDeleteIt's gonna take a lot of capital to improve a property like this, well, electricity (assuming it can be done), road, driveway, house, time, etc...
Here it is:
ReplyDeletehttp://cgi.ebay.com/40-AC-LOVELOCK-NEVADA-LIQUIDATION-SALE-LOW-PRICES-/320599494349?pt=Land&hash=item4aa5380ecd
Elko Nevada - What recession???
ReplyDeletehttp://money.cnn.com/2009/08/17/news/economy/elko_gold_nevada.fortune/index.htm
REMX - New strategic metals ETF includes GMO:
ReplyDelete"The benchmark has 24 securities of companies with a market capitalization range of between approximately $157 million and $370 billion and an average market capitalization of $1.2 billion.
Stocks that trade in the U.S. and are included in the benchmark index:
Rare Element Resources Ltd. (AMEX: REE)
Titanium Metals Corporation (NYSE: TIE)
RTI International Metals, Inc. (NYSE: RTI)
Molycorp, Inc. (NYSE: MCP)
General Moly, Inc. (AMEX: GMO)
Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. (NYSE: TC)"
I like the squirrel forecast. My dad's family used to eat squirrels. I just never found that too appetizing but then he told me there were many times when all they had for supper (yeah supper not dinner) was gravy. I just can't imagine that.
ReplyDeleteI'm probably going to get back into UNG tomorrow but I'm going to do it with options and I'll probably wait to see what the storage number looks like. I'm soooo tempted to just buy a future call on the Jan contract but that's more than I want to risk and I'm not sure how liquid they are for one contract.
My thoughts on Nov. I think I read somewhere that Nov is expected to be cold then the rest of the winter is mild. Most of the arb storage players have probably rolled out of their Nov positions so that may support the cash prices a bit. Utilities can't really arb so much plus they have to balance their loads based on historical burns and what they think the weather forecast looks like. I still think the utilites would have more baseload supply than normal because the Nov contract settled at 3.292 and that's pretty low. I would hate to take out a lot of my storage gas at the $3.30 level. On the flip side, if we have a mild Nov, cash prices are going to tank and they will probably take the Dec contract down with them. Utilities will probably have to sell gas in the cash market cuz they probably wont' have any room in storage.
Tomorrow I'd like to see the Dec contract down about $.10 or so before the number, then maybe a spike down after the number and that's when I'll buy my Dec or Jan $5.00 strike calls. If the Dec contract is trading flat or up then I'd probably do a 5/6 call spread. I'm just not sure if I want to do Dec or Jan.
maybe i should put this on cc, minus the SQUIRREL forecast.
ReplyDeleteport- Minus the 'squirrel forecast' takes all the flavor out of the post.
ReplyDeleteREDF: year over year revenue growth of 46% for online advertising. Nothing else matters. Stock is cheap.
ReplyDeleteJobs are picking up...Bears are gonna get crushed...
Re: REDF:
ReplyDeleteOn the conference call they mentioned that they are developing a search advertising platform in house that will be launched in a couple of quarters, which is huge news. There was some speculation that they would partner with another company so this is great.
'This is Romeo Foxtrot. Shall we dance?' newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4866 comments) on Thu, 10/28/2010 - 09:09 #72973
ReplyDeleteRoll the tape. It need not be Ride of the Valkries.
Looks like I ruffled some feathers over at Gold Bug Central...err, CC.
ReplyDelete... did the giants win???
ReplyDeletecp,
All kidding aside, that land in nv is worth checking out. let me know what else you find on ebay!
Opening AA/BAC/CSCO/INTC @ 12.77/11.65/23.25//20.26
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4868 comments) on Thu, 10/28/2010 - 09:35 #72977
...
edit reply Bookmark this Ignore thread
Cara 100 Update newSubmitted by Bull Hunter (1530 comments) on Thu, 10/28/2010 - 09:36 #72978
PG - PT Lifted from $66 to $67 @ RBC. Sector Perform
PG - PT Lifted from $66 to $72 @ Caris. Average
reply Contact the author Bookmark this Ignore thread Ignore user
Adding V @ 77.95 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4868 comments) on Thu, 10/28/2010 - 09:40 #72979
tof,
ReplyDeleteyou made a great argument on gold at at cc (and I am a gold bug).
thanks for all your good picks, you've been right 9 times out of 10
Giants won 11-7.
ReplyDeleteAdding to V @ 77.10
ReplyDeleteGreat job sticking to your plan with CADC CP.
ReplyDeleteAdded more REDF at $4.07.
ReplyDeleteRe: 'This is Romeo Foxtrot. Shall we dance?'/ Heavy return fire newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4869 comments) on Thu, 10/28/2010 - 10:27 #72988 (in reply to #72973)
ReplyDeleteDamn.
Re: 'This is Romeo Foxtrot. Shall we dance?'/ Heavy return fire newSubmitted by teamonfuego (2254 comments) on Thu, 10/28/2010 - 10:31 #72990 (in reply to #72988)
ReplyDeleteThis is some whipsaw action, 2nd. If we should take anything from the past 2 weeks its that we should be selling any pops and buying any drops.
Mark, CADC is and deserves to be heading higher, along with hundreds of other mispriced stocks like REDF, there will always be profit takers.
ReplyDeleteWe've only just begun, a kiss for luck and we're on our way.
So I heard after close yesterday there's some consternation over the size of Bernanke's package.
Re: 'This is Romeo Foxtrot. Shall we dance?'/ Heavy return fire newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4870 comments) on Thu, 10/28/2010 - 10:41 #72995 (in reply to #72990)
ReplyDeleteThat's one reason I'm focusing on battered stocks for buys.
Re: Day trading dead? newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4871 comments) on Thu, 10/28/2010 - 10:58 #72999 (in reply to #72996)
ReplyDeleteinvariate- I for one am certainly tired of day trading. The nice thing about the market right now is an abundance of beaten-up blue chips available at decent prices. Were I to turn off the PC right now leave the room and walk away into the sunset(holding current positions in OAKBX + AA/BAC/CSCO/INTC/V), I could probably boot up again in a year to nice gains.
I might even do that.
Natural gas - Isn't China on the hunt for the new gas drilling technologies being implemented in the US?
ReplyDeleteWhy not go after the drillers, as opposed to the commodity?
Just wondering...
GL guys....
ReplyDeleteI AGREEEEE WITH CP but i do like UNG for a short term trade, i didn't like the pop after the number though, estimates were +73 and the actual was +71, storage is 1 bcf less than last year at this time
ReplyDeleteport
And as far as weather goes, the squirrel observation only accounts for the particular region I'm in, which is eastern. I don't have a take on central or western squirrel harvests.
ReplyDeleteGold - Who cares, really? So gold goes up in times of disinflation and it goes down in times of inflation, is that the story?
ReplyDeleteThat makes about as much sense as pointing out the difference between an orange.
CC - I gave up attempting to reason with an alcoholic haze some time ago, let the market deliver an intervention.
ReplyDeleteGold is at a crossroads here though, I'd bet it fails before resuming an upward trend.
ReplyDeleteNot that I understand what makes that bomb tick.
Nat gas - Someone made an interesting observation/point the other day that caught my attention b/c I've been wondering why drillers would continue on with the insanity of plummeting gas prices.
ReplyDeleteI don't have a mechanism for determining validity but they suggested the reasons drilling is still moving like mad could be the liquids found in the wells are actually the profit driver and well leases have limited lifetime.
REE - sharp selloff...
ReplyDeleteChina resumes rare-earth exports...
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Hilariously-China-Resumes-siliconalley-2788985979.html?x=0&.v=2
REE - Wow, glad I didn't have any, but it might be time to buy soon b/c Japan, etc. will still pursue secondary sources.
ReplyDeleteAdding to V @ 75.40
ReplyDeleteBought some SPY Nov 22 $119 SPY Puts at $2.58 to hedge my longs.
ReplyDeleteU$D down over 1% and this market can't get it going... yet Or, it's simply oscillating while waiting for the big schnitzel.
ReplyDeleteGold has taken note by making up yesterday's losses, but a weak dollar isn't disinflation and so that theory still doesn't tread water.
PIMPCO should put their money where their mouth is by distributing into Treasury strength instead of talking out of both sides.
Maybe the market gets taken down so that QE2 is guaranteed?
ReplyDeleteQE2 - I'm not so sure it's about the market, I think it's more about jobs and disinflation.
ReplyDeleteThe gold bugs, as I see it, are going to have to be quick to take profits once balance is restored and jobs begin to reappear (whenever/if that happens) b/c Bernanke will pull on the reins and the dollar trend will become upwardly mobile.
Why hasn't anyone mentioned the possibility of Bernanke lowering the deposit rate next week, or have they and I simply missed the conversation?
QE2 - I also think Bernanke is apt to hesitate if congress doesn't make a commitment and step up and accept some of the burden.
ReplyDeleteSold some of my BYD calls...sold the $9 Calls at $0.25 that I bought at $0.18 average a week or two ago.
ReplyDeletePort- Thanks. Natty breaking out. Let's see how the floor closes it.
ReplyDeleteTake a look at XCO if your interested in a producer. Today it out preforming it's peers by a mile.
CP- MOG says the lease issue is really the driving factor, but he's adding at these levels.
QE2...I'm probably wrong, but I kinda think the economy will have a strong enough push here to lessen the need. I guess the question is, will the market consider that a negative?
ReplyDeleteI bet AAPL buyers @ 300 today will be rewarded.
ReplyDeleteLong TZA at $22.79...also as a hedge.
ReplyDeleteSee, aside from thinking gold does well during disinflation, the thing I think gold bugs are overlooking is gold can only represent a place to store value, at best.
ReplyDeleteOnce, and if, the economy begins to recover and grow (Asia IS growing, BTW), how could that be better for gold than other commodities, etc., that will see demand from the value-added activity? What will the people be wanting and needing to fuel the next growth cycle? I doubt it will be gold.
HAL/OIH....OK, now I see the news. Hmmm...I like this for my PXP position.
ReplyDeleteQE2 - From what I see, bankers have pretty much said they don't see a need yet, which I find kind of a strange thing to say.
ReplyDeleteBut I agree that without a parallel plan from congress to implement some changes (infrastructure investment?), QE2 may not accomplish much.
Caution? newSubmitted by teamonfuego (2258 comments) on Thu, 10/28/2010 - 14:25 #73056
ReplyDeleteToday has been a series of lower highs...this is the 3rd time in the past 6 trading sessions where opening gaps up have been sold off and tells me we may need to be a little more cautious here in the short term. Maybe we are due for a little pullback before moving to the 1,250 level, which is what I think will happen within the next 6 months.
Maybe Jeff Saut is right and a pullback of 5-8% is in the cards before going higher?
Initial reaction to HAL was positive for APC...Not now.
ReplyDeleteJB- OK, what's the LT play/PT for BTIM. I've got a 9% return on it and want to take it.
ReplyDeleteTalk me out of it.
CP! Is that you in the Geico commercial on the ATV yelling at the woodchucks?? :))
ReplyDeleteHAL should contract CADC for their cement and concrete engineering expertise. ;)
ReplyDeleteprobably gonna move my SPY index fund and international index funds into cash at the close. i'm gonna wait for a panic selloff before buying more. i don't expect the selloff to be very long or deep...maybe 3 to 5% over a week or so?
ReplyDeleteGeico commercial - Close! Last night I was yelling at a racoon that was loitering around the duck pen and wouldn't go away even when Poncho was trying to chase him off and couldn't! Poncho started grunting and getting frustrated, he appreciated my stepping in to help out...
ReplyDeleteTOF- Probably the smart move. It just seems to easy of a play. I'll probably get caught with my d... hanging out, but I'm holding for now.
ReplyDeleteYou know, SMH has broken out here. Get the banks involved more and those 2 factors should be enough to push us higher.
ReplyDeleteSMH - No kidding, that's been one hell of a run that doesn't really look like it's abating...
ReplyDeleteAdded a few more SPY $119 Nov 22 puts at $2.46 only as a hedge...will probably close before the end of the day.
ReplyDeleteImbalances....
ReplyDeleteNothing interesting.
After some internal deliberation, I decided to place a sell limit order at $2.97 (1c below the current ask) for the 1000 shares of HNUZF that I purchased earlier this week at $2.75. I have to give the benefit of the doubt to the downtrend in NG prices, and so I want to take a small trading profit during today's run up.
ReplyDelete+.44% today.
ReplyDeleteAt the game!!!!
Oh well, my sell limit order on HNUZF didn't get hit. If NG prices gap down tomorrow and continue the next leg down -- well, so be it. If, on the other hand, the current pop turns into a real and fierce short covering rally or, God forbid, a new uptrend for NG that will last into the winter, then selling too soon will be a mistake. So I am moving up to $3.25 the sell limit for 1000 shares of HNUZF I picked up at $2.75 and also setting a sell limit at $3.45 for 1000 shares I purchased at $2.95.
ReplyDeleteOn a third thought, I figured that I *will* try to sell some UNG after hours through OptionsHouse, since the bid/ask spread is only 1c for UNG vs. 3-4c for HNUZF. So I just placed a sell limit order for 300 shares of UNG (out of the 1800 shares I have) at the asking price of $5.63. This is a "nominal" trade size just to make sure that I won't be kicking myself tomorrow for not down at least something about today's pop if UNG gaps down tomorrow and heads into the toilet.
ReplyDeleteDecided to keep my SPY and International Index funds as well as my TZA and SPY puts. I plan on selling my short positions on the next spike down. Tomorrow and next few days should be volatile.
ReplyDeleteDude, Mark - you lucky bastard! How did you score those tixx?
HAL - I'll bet Quick-Draw McGraw made some money there today...
ReplyDeleteA measly 1.48% gain for the port today, how long will the energizer bunny run?
ReplyDeleteMy sell limit order for 300 shares of UNG at $5.63 did get filled. So now I'll be happy with any scenario for the next week: a new leg down in UNG, in which case I'll reload these 300 shares at $5 or a continued run up, which I will meet with stacked sell limit orders for HNUZF.
ReplyDeleteNLY - Finally coming off, it's been a heck of a run there.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete