Tuesday, October 26, 2010
10/27/10 Blue Skies
So our favorite bear is trying to mark the top with his rants. Close, but no cigar. From experience, I know the difference between 'down-but-still-able-to-talk-about-it' "capitulation" and 'I-saw-this-coming-why-didn't-I-get-the-bleep-out-while-I-was-still-able-to-talk-it-[pound the table]-screw-this-[close all shorts walk out to the backyard]-I'm-out' Capitulation.
One more pull out the stops clear the house steamroll the bears rally.
Nothing but blue skies do I see.
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I just noticed Seoul is now above 1900. I remember the days I would get excited posting 1500.
ReplyDeleteVXX getting much needed cosmetic surgery- 1:4 reverse split newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4858 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 - 21:33 #72836
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/278ly2s
Just in time.
JB- Be careful. Might just be a margin call or something like that, but it might have a longer term effect on a thinly traded issue.
ReplyDeleteRBY's price/volume today wasn't constructive.
ReplyDeleteCADC's was on the other hand. If it can clear this area...Nothing but air above.
ReplyDeleteoink
ReplyDeletegood thing i had pbr today.
natty, learned something new today
ReplyDeletei was asking one of my bank contacts what they thought the spreads (winter/summer and winter to next winter) were going to do. He said that there was a decent size auction last night that was moving everything around on the curve so his group would want to wait till things settle down a bit. I said "what do you mean by auction"? He said the ISO's come out with power auctions and after those are awarded, the winning suppliers will hedge a good part of the power supply with natural gas. He also said there have been more auctions lately with natty prices so cheap. He's going to get back to me with more details and I'll follow up with a post.
My group doesn't have access to this type of data and that's what happens when you're a small shop. I'm guessing you would see a similar reaction in the coal markets but maybe not. Maybe the coal plants are baseloaded and have more to do with SO2 credits and natty supplies the incremental load.
port- I understand, and make sense to me. I meet with MG today and all though the conversation was a little short on the meat, I'll post my impressions soon.
ReplyDeleteTudor likes
ReplyDeleteoily names with NAV upside is DVN, NBL, BRY, BEXP, and STP
AND gas contrarians who don't mind being early should focus on HK and QEP.
I like the CONTRARIAN comment.
I like HK also. I watched it today. QEP is new to me.
ReplyDeleteI wonder how much longer the campaign for social equity will continue clinging to it's alternative reality? The myth of European style socialism in America only lives until that day.
ReplyDeleteCADC - Yes, it'll be interesting to watch as the 200DMA continues to sink into the sunset and become a distant memory.
ReplyDeleteCP- WOW!!! That's the best comment you've made.
ReplyDeleteThanks Mark.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, I'm not doing any fundamental analysis. I totally relay on things like Tudor. I also like the accuracy ranking system Fidelity has.
Three or four weeks ago I was talking about HERO as a potential play and I bought some. I just noticed that Raymond James with an accuracy score of 99 downgraded HERO to UNDERPERFORM on 10/11/2010. dang. Oh well, that's where position size comes in. At least I have it sitting in my 10 year account.
bottom dropped out of the Hang Seng.
ReplyDeleteport- You must have seen the close in HERO. Very leveraged to the gulf. Wonder what that was about. MOG doesn't know them at all. He still really likes PXP and it's low cost drilling assets on the oily side.
ReplyDeleteCX - Was a rocket today, with an earnings loss but a sweet debt deal. These low rates are working their magic...
ReplyDeleteThe TARP program is estimated to cost US taxpayers less than $50B. That's 1/2 the annual cost of funding the US military and 1% of GDP.
ReplyDeleteThe S&L crisis cost US taxpayers 2.5% of GDP.
I wonder how much fear-mongering during this rough period in history has cost us?
TOF- I'm guessing a response to the AUS CPI??
ReplyDeleteBloody Marys at the bar in the morning. GL guy.
ReplyDeleteCYB - Interesting chart action...
ReplyDeleteSeems like China has been thinking a little more about allowing the Federal Reserve to set their monetary policy.
ReplyDeleteMark - not sure what the reason is for the drop off, but I suspect it has something to do with the uneasiness surrounding the upcoming elections/fed meeting. I'm slowly building cash up for a potential drop just in case. I'd rather be safe than sorry.
ReplyDeleteRe: Night Of The Living FED/ BAC closed @ 11.37 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4859 comments) on Wed, 10/27/2010 - 08:37 #72860 (in reply to #72859)
ReplyDeleteThe market is not moving in my direction. Taking BAC off the table while it's catching a bid. Still bullish about its ST direction, but pulling back behind the semi as we approach the morning curve seems prudent.
AMLN - Looks like a gap up mover this morn...
ReplyDeleteTook 1000 shares of CADC off PM @ 4.30. Tippy top of the range. +33.88% Hope to re-load.
ReplyDeleteTOF- I hear you. I'm about 50% cash right now.
Adding to BAC @ 11.26.
ReplyDeleteWhat the hell. Taking profits on the 1000 shares of BAC I picked up today @ 12.47.
ReplyDeletenice pop in arun, took 1/2 off at 21.24, letting the other half roll. target is 22.41
ReplyDeleteLooks like X might test 37.
ReplyDeleteBYD rocketing higher on debt news. I'm still holding some out of the money calls that are now almost in the money. They're getting their house in order.
ReplyDeleteCADC- All off @ 4.40. Hope I'm right.
ReplyDeleteNice job bro.
ReplyDeleteNice call on AMLN Kyle.
ReplyDeleteHERO- Think someone got the word?
ReplyDeleteMark - Thanks man. Finally a bit of pullback there
ReplyDeleteAll right bro. Bidding BTIM @ 5.57.
ReplyDeleteBTIM- Come on. Someone puke up your shares.
ReplyDeletegood luck Mark, it's a thinly traded sucker, I think there is support at 5.22, so maybe scale in as it moves a tad lower
ReplyDeleteThank you...I hope :)
ReplyDeleteJB- Only 2000 shares. If it doesn't hold here, your right. 5.20 ish there she goes.
ReplyDeletehold on to your hat with this one bro!
ReplyDeleteRe: Night Of The Living FED/ BAC closed @ 11.37
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4861 comments) on Wed, 10/27/2010 - 10:37 #72876 (in reply to #72874)
You could say I'm bottom fishing- my usual attraction to beaten down stocks. However, I think BAC will eventually recover, and in this case had recovered to the point where a 'Buy Alert' had been issued. Of course, we all know it could hover around this point for weeks before it begins to climb.
Right now, I'm back in Capital Preservation mode.
edit reply Bookmark this Ignore thread
Re: I see people are buying NASDAQ on a dip this AM
Submitted by 2nd_ave (4861 comments) on Wed, 10/27/2010 - 10:42 #72877 (in reply to #72873)
I think Bill's 'RSI' system works fairly well for entry points on what Vad calls the 'right side-' you could probably tweak the system by substituting your preferred time frames. Let's face it, all entries/exits are 'guesses,' and we do our best to make them 'informed guesses.'
My double short of TNA TZA experiment has finally turned positive. This is the first day I have seen discrepency of greater than .1%between the two. Might indicate a lot of in decision in the market. Overall these insturments have traked each other extremely well. I feel the decay in this particular insturment is minimal When compared to other insturments.
ReplyDeleteGMO - And now I don't feel so bad!
ReplyDeleteTNA/TZA short - I like that play, keep us posted.
ReplyDeleteThe gold/miners trade is taking a beating right now...
ReplyDeleteI should have heeded my own advice to lighten up more. I only moved from 100% long to 70% long before today. Now I need to decide what to do with my REDF position before tomorrow's earnings.
ReplyDeleteGot gold? Well, sorry about that!
ReplyDeleteI went the exact opposite way tof, just yesterday I started going from 60% long to 67% long...ouch!
ReplyDeleteI'm watching spy pretty close, we firm up here we could very well just blast higher, ya'll can tell I've spending too much time messing with my candle charts
ReplyDeleteToo funny, CYB moves down as UUP moves up.
ReplyDelete"I went the exact opposite way tof, just yesterday I started going from 60% long to 67% long...ouch! "
ReplyDeletejb - i still think we ultimately go much higher...just not in the short term.
but the trend is up and there's no reason to be shorting things yet.
ReplyDeleteWonder how tax loss selling might impact the market this year... This is another phenomenon I can't get my arms around.
ReplyDeletehttp://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/interviews/30-new-e-comm-cos-likely-by-year-end/articleshow/6812463.cms
ReplyDeletesomething big going on with MEE.
ReplyDeleteMEE - Must've been a good conference call, last I looked, MEE was red.
ReplyDeleteMEE - conference call was at 11AM...
ReplyDeleteMEE,Rumor was they were going to try and sell themselves. I don't know if it was a private equity deal or an accusition.
ReplyDeleteBob
DBB - Bounced off the upper trend line.
ReplyDeleteLong SPY Oct 29 $117 Calls at $1.14 for a quick trade.
ReplyDeleteBuying Opportunity? newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4862 comments) on Wed, 10/27/2010 - 13:52 #72899
ReplyDeleteI think so.
JEC - Jacobs Engineering - Does anyone follow this one?
ReplyDeleteRe: Buying Opportunity?/ All Aboard Last Call Prior To Tuesday newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4863 comments) on Wed, 10/27/2010 - 14:01 #72900 (in reply to #72899)
ReplyDeleteOpening a small position in SSO (20% of allocation), will add on the expectation of further selling into the close...
2nd - I agree...I went long calls just before you posted. I'm going to go long again in the SPY index fund at the close.
ReplyDeleteToo funny. I just got back and was scanning, thinking, this looks like a good entry point.
ReplyDeleteThings got a little hairy this morning. Port was down 1.8%. Now down .22%.
I also see my computer bought another 1000 shares of BTIM @ 5.40.
ReplyDeleteRe: REDF earnings:
ReplyDeleteIn Q3 2009 they decided to get rid of all of the advertising on their home page and make the site design more sleek and minimalist. Revenues initially dropped but they have since grown sequentially for the past 4 quarters. Attached is a screen shot of how revenues have grown recently. I'll be looking for continued sequential growth and growth in its registered user base, which is around 93 million people (this is the # of subs to its email service, which is mostly used by mobile phone users). Anything around $4.5 Million for India Online revenues will be very good. If they do $4.5 Million in online revenues then that would amount to about 50% revenue growth year over year. I think this will juice the stock.
http://caracommunity.com/sites/default/files/rediff.jpg
Well, I did gave everyone a clear warning yesterday about today's sell-off, didn't I? Quoting:
ReplyDelete"Since I think the market will go higher over the medium term, I figured that I should close my TWM position instead of trying to time the small and brief sell-off that we may get." :)
Interesting news in CXPO.
ReplyDeleteREDF - Sitting on the lower trend line now, could be poised for another stratospheric launch?
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't doubt it one bit...
TOF- So you decided to hold through earnings?
ReplyDeleteMark - yeah i'm going to hold. i actually think REDF should be a long term hold. there is so much interest in e-commerce related things in india right now and the growth hasn't even started. REDF's stock should be much higher longer term so i'm ok with sitting through the volatility. it's only valued at $117 Million right now, which is kinda silly given that it's the 9th most visited site in India + top search engine in India + Broadband Internet Penetration in India is only 0.75% versus about 25% in developed countries. this is a long term growth story...nitpicking over trying to time buying it at $3.5 or $4 right now will probably look silly in 5 years.
ReplyDeleteREE - Apparently there is a rare-earth ETF coming out tomorrow...
ReplyDeleteGMO - WTF, a buyer showed up out of nowhere!
ReplyDeletecp - believe the movement in these is all related to the new rare-earth ETF...
ReplyDeleteWonder what the pop here is all about.
ReplyDeleteTOF- OK, thanks. I like it on the chart here as well.
ReplyDeleteBidding @ 4.23.
Sold SPY Oct 29 $117 Calls at $1.34 that I bought at $1.14. That was easy!
ReplyDeleteGot to run, but if we close green today, the bears will be doing a lot more than puking...
ReplyDeleteOh god, not yet another scourge of the earth ETF to slowly bleed buyers pockets, just what we need...
ReplyDeleteGoing for a run, see you guys at the close.
ReplyDeleteMy port is back to it's all-time high despite having sold some GMO...
ReplyDeleteGo GMO, don't let me down son, Giddy-up!
OK, REDF filled.
ReplyDeleteLooks like the indices have bottomed for the day and FCX has not only bottomed but also broke above its recent plateau at $94.80. So I decided to close my 100 share short at $95.03 and instead placed a sell short stop order for the same 100 shares at $94.60 (in case this little pop turns out to be a fake and FCX reverses to the downside).
ReplyDeleteJEC - A good infrastructure spending play, I believe.
ReplyDeleteHow could congress not give a bipartisan green light on infrastructure?
Forgot to mention: my buy limit order for 5000 shares of ECUXF was triggered today at $0.65. As I have expected, the fate did protect me when only 1/2 of my buy limit order was triggered a couple of days ago at $0.67. :) Or maybe it is just another demonstration of why scaling in works better than buying something in one shot.
ReplyDeleteport2013: technically, the chart of UNG over the past month is built up of the same repeating blocks: sideways or slightly upwards motion Mon through Wednesday and then a strong dump on Thursday of Friday. So the recent minor upticks in UNG will only become sustainable if UNG does not get dumped tomorrow or Friday.
ReplyDeleteJust to give a little more room to FCX, I have lowered my sell short stop order to $94.40, just below its recent low.
ReplyDeleteI'm back, can see the trip to the dr cost me in more ways than one.
ReplyDeletetof - I'm with you that intermediate to long term we go higher; my thesis has always been the genie is out of the bottle (middle class explosion in BRIC, other ltam, other SEA, ex jpn).
hell Mark - you don't need to own 50% of the BTIM float...:)
closed out my SSO when I headed out - bad move, 1171-1173 looks like solid support for SPY.
good luck boys!
After thinking a little more about FCX, I decided to cancel my sell short stop order all together. The copper spot price does not form a bearish chart yet, and so there is no compelling case to short FCX now, especially after it already had a pullback and is now rising after that pullback. I still have a bunch of put options that are partially hedging my long positions, and since I don't think we'll get more than a small to medium sell-off, there is no point to trying to fully hedge myself now. In the event of a decent sell-off, I'll just close my put options with profit and will then ride the new leg up being fully long.
ReplyDeleteGot gold? Hope not!
ReplyDeleteBAC - Has been rockin' all day. Okay, what's the scoop there?
ReplyDeleteAMLN - so has this one...
ReplyDeleteCHGS - doing OK too...
ReplyDeleteBAC? I sold this morning, that's what's up. Damn....
ReplyDelete1225 or Bust/ Manifest Destiny newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4864 comments) on Wed, 10/27/2010 - 16:05 #72920
ReplyDeleteThe bulls circled the wagons and fought off the bears. The train's headed for the Pacific and I don't see anything getting in the way between now and Tuesday.
I just spoke on the phone with the investor rep from ECU.TO to get an update about their situation and I liked what I heard. They will announce new drill results in a month or so from a high-grade area that was detected in 2008. Also, while their 2Q revenue was around $4.4M, they are planning to stop experimenting with their mills now and run them at the full efficiency mode with high-grade ore, so as to get around $9M in revenue in 4Q.
ReplyDeleteAs for 3Q, the results of which will soon be announced, their total shipments were 418K silver equivalent ounces, up from 315K in 2Q (because of the gold pyrate sales). Also, they are making semi-annual payments of $1M for mineral concession liability (to acquire a piece of land), and they made that payment in 2Q and hence it won't appear in 3Q. So, the way I see it, unless they made a lot of new spending in 3Q, they should have a positive EPS in 3Q already.
I think ECU is a winning lottery ticket long-term (over the next couple of years).
With that in mind, I placed buy limit orders for 5000 shares of ECUXF at $0.63 and $0.61.
PIMCO - worth a read...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.pimco.com/Pages/RunTurkeyRun.aspx
LVS - BLEW OUT earnings. Absolutely crushed. The whole casino sector is getting a boost after hours. Maybe I won't regret not selling my BYD options.
ReplyDeleteMoved 50% of my remaining cash into the SPY Fund and the International Fund (of which 23% is the Nikkei).
2nd - Just because you sold the BAC $0.20 lower doesn't mean you can't buy back in. This thing was 70% higher just 6 months ago. Did the world really fall apart since then?
Well, another positive day over here of +2.57% for a new portfolio high close grand +38.5% from initial figure (exclusive of dollar depreciation/appreciation).
ReplyDeleteLVS - Wasn't someone shorting that one recently? Ouch!
ReplyDeletedamn, CP that's very impressive!! great job.
ReplyDeleteRFMD - Beautiful Gap n Go mover...missed it
ReplyDeletejb - Somehow I doubt it's even close to the performance of those who actually know what their doing but it's considerably better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. ;)
ReplyDeletePimco - Interesting article by Gross, I'll have to try dissecting it tonight.
ReplyDeleteAnother option Bernanke has is to lower the FED deposit rate, leading banks in search of returns elsewhere...
LVS - Puts a smile on my face.
ReplyDeleteFORM - making a turn?
ReplyDeleteAnd a spring in my step...
ReplyDeleteOINK - Made a big stinky today, huh...?
ReplyDeleteFORM - Sure looks that way, wonder what their order book looks like?
ReplyDeleteV @ 77.80.
ReplyDeleteCP -- congratulations on your LVS position and your portfolio performance!
ReplyDeleteLegendary trading secrets; what you must know and how to prepare:
ReplyDelete1st, Don't neglect your safety plan, #1 on the list should be avoiding predator types:
http://www.lovetheoutdoors.com/how-to-avoid-bears-when-camping/
And of course #2, how to discourage cannibalistic natives with your mystical powers;
a) Magic multi-colored fire crystals:
http://chemistry.about.com/cs/howtos/a/aa052703a.htm
b) Scare them with brilliant flashes of light while telling them their god's wrath will follow your doom:
http://www.ehow.com/how_2146171_make-flash-powder-magic-tricks.html
David, I don't hold any LVS, I rejoice for those who do and otherwise those (like me) who wish to participate in economic recovery.
ReplyDeleteThe victory consists of many battles, one small step for man...
Natural gas - Are you wondering if this winter might be colder than average? Well, based on my observations, it's not likely. Mine is a simple analysis so take it as you wish, but there are almost no squirrels collecting what appears to be a bumper crop of acorns this fall.
ReplyDeleteI've read elsewhere that squirrel activity is/was high, but I don't see near the amount of gathering going on this year as most. Unless they collected their harvest while I wasn't looking, which is possible, but last year the squirrels were eating as they went, leaving their shells everywhere. Not so this year.
CRUS - H&S pattern finally played out?
ReplyDelete