Sunday, October 3, 2010

10/3/10 Red October/Mr. October



Being lazy again, and copying/pasting my response to Bull Hunter-

Most of us aren't that great at forecasting more than an hour/day at a time, much less a month (don't meterologists have the same problem), but I'll take a swing at it.

The market (which is to say crowd psychology) is really no different from the weather- you see the same patterns repeated over and over. So I think the market sells off enough to test recent buyers, then ramps up to higher levels, leaving most of them behind. From a trading perspective, of course, the devil lies in the details. If you're going to be short, take profits when you have them. If you want to get long, wait for the inevitable pullbacks. Nothing new there- we'll see significant selling in October, which simply sets up significant buying opportunities (for swing traders, you may even see the perfect pitch). This take, of course, presumes we're going higher.

I think we are going higher. The 'pockets of prosperity' argument notwithstanding, I believe the next decade does in fact set us up for another Roaring Twenties. Things weren't great during the Seventies, yet there were no market 'crashes-' the indexes (from a zoom-out perspective) pretty much remained static. They may do pretty much the same for the next ten years- tread water while waiting for the economy to 'get it together.' I know it's easy to imagine Martians looking at the human race and thinking 'What a bunch of losers,' but most of the time we do get it together.

131 comments:

  1. They came from behind yesterday to win it, 3-2. The little guy scored the first goal for his team.

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  2. Mark- We closed Friday. The appraisal story is more of an appraisER story. Let's just the first one assigned was an a------ who insisted on scheduling times that were inconvenient for us. Given the new regulations that disallow lenders/clients/brokers to select appraisers, this guy probably became accustomed to doing what was convenient for him and getting away with it. We weren't buying that bullshit, and were willing to walk away from the deal if that's what it came down to. After weeks of back and forth and bumping the issue up to different levels of management, they reassigned it to someone else.

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  3. To funny...Glad to see you put your foot down.

    Good game! Hailey's was yesterday and Kendra has a State Cup game today.

    This is crazy. Kendra is 9 and has only lost 3 teeth. She actually ripped one out last night...Not that I hand ANY hand in that ;)

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  4. This is actually kinda cool. Before Hailey's game yesterday I tried to teach her how to do a "pull back". Sure as hell, about 10 minutes into the game, she did it.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/Y2MyM2Y0

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  5. WSJ article on bonds....

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704029304575526172764480294.html?mod=rss_markets_main

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  6. Somebody email Kaimu and tell him I said to buy ANO Aanooraq here and now.

    You guys too. This thing's gonna rip to the upside asap.

    I bought a small amount Friday but I'm plnaning to buy much more. No one would sell me any anywhere near the stated offers.

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  7. uh oh this is what I was afraid of

    BC blog via Loannetter

    "California is setting precident: judges are refusing to allow MERS to foreclose on a chain of title technicality. The actual title holder will surely turn up eventually. If you bought a foreclosed home your title could be worthless!

    The argument is MERS transfers loans (on behalf of lenders) are being deemed 'void' because they did not 'own' the loan. There are huge civil fines due to MERS avoiding $2.4 Billion dollars of recording fees -- now causing civil suits by city governments against MERS."

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  8. 2nd- Are you watching the Nikkei? Some really crazy trading. Take?

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  9. "judges are refusing to allow MERS to foreclose on a chain of title technicality."

    Somehow all of this sounds like a convenient excuse not to foreclose, forcing additional inventory on the market.

    If there really were massive problems associated with titles, wouldn't title insurance company share prices be suffering those slings and arrows?

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  10. Dude....Mark! Great job man! I was away all weekend helping my fiancee's family move into their new place and just enjoying the company. Hope you had a great weekend.

    Trading/investing ain't easy, but it sure is fun when you make money. I always think of it as a big puzzle and a race against time, trying to find those few stocks (pieces) that end up being the big money makers that will enable us to retire early (finish the puzzle) or at least get us to a point financially where we want to be, but at an earlier time than we hoped to be at it. But let's all remember that it's just money, right!?! I mean our lives and the lives of our loved ones is what it's all about. This market puzzle then is just a little piece of lifes bigger puzzle.

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  11. cool

    "love-in" music. pass the peace pipe

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  12. Well, I suppose we're supposed to follow through on our conditioning and take profits?

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  13. O-G Kush makin' the morning nice:)

    Guys.....We are entering into a period when, according to some real inside experts, we have shifted to a much softer dollar policy as our way of fighting the trade war with China.

    No matter what we said the Chinese kept manipulating their currency downward to desroy our jobs base....So, thank God, the creeps in Washington have decided to let the dollar soften a lot in order to

    A) improve our position vis a vis debt repayment
    B) make our exports more competitive
    C) Let the dollar do what it wants/should do , which is weaken.

    So are you ready for this? John Paulson said, late last week in private meetings with bankers that the inlfation is going to go nuts in the next few years. That commodities gold and even, yes, residential houses will go much higher. Now, I don't agree about the house thing, but the rest of it........That's affirmative:)

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  14. I don't see how housing can go much higher in the next few years unless there's something going on that I'm totally unaware of. There will be some regions or pockets to experience higher pricing but in general flat to down are the very best I can imagine.

    The only thing holding the dollar up aside from Chinese manipulation up are the sad state of the Euro and the Yen.

    China has the world by the short hairs now, and has for nearly a decade. We're looking at 10 years of Yuan appreciation that's been kicked down the road.

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  15. The only thing of note so far has been the persistent selling in energy this morning.

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  16. VXX @ 17.14 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4676 comments) on Mon, 10/04/2010 - 10:41 #70665
    A bet that volatililty will soon replace the recent complacence.

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  17. Mark- Belated congratulations on turning green. That definitely leads to a different mindset- increased confidence, for one thing.

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  18. 2nd- Thanks. I like the VIX trade. I just hate the way VXX tracks.

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  19. Might take a shot at X if it get's to 40.33.

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  20. Raise your hand if you're long newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4677 comments) on Mon, 10/04/2010 - 10:53 #70667
    80% of the class raises their hands. Then they sell the market off 2%. It drops to 50%. Then they sell it off another 2%. It drops to 30%. Then they ramp it up.

    To pick one stock at random- at this point INTC @ 18.29 within a few days might leave only strong hands holding.

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  21. CP- Take a look at CHNG on the value side for us.

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  22. The other thing is, and I'm sure there are those who would disagree "daytrading" doesn't really tend to work very well on MOST days.

    The idea of laying out 70 thousand in order to try to make, or lose, 300 bucks is madness, I'm sorry.

    The risk reward just aint there.

    Of course, every once in a while, on big breakouts and surprising reversals, daytrading can make sense.

    Mostly though you need to invest.

    Anyway, stay long commodities. According to my buddy that trade is just getting started.

    Paulson actually anticipates hyperinflation causing him to suggest, and I don't quite get this, but he says buy a house lock in low rates dollar's going way down everything else going way up.

    Think about it from a government planning standpoint.........left or right wing, the above idea is very workable and does tend to solve a lot of problems in theory.....

    Whereas the Tea Party agenda of harder money smaller government kill social security and medicare ammending the civil rights act, that kind of stuff causes our economic problems to be greater not lessened.

    What's happening now is, rich far right wing mostly females (Fiorina, Whitless, and my own personal favorite Nazi bitch goddess of all things steroids and hairy men in tights wearing masks grappling each other for money, Linda McMahon, up here in CT, running for Senate.

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  23. Incredible how predictable market direction is... Now all I have to do is get some idea of how to anticipate magnitude.

    I really don't trust a pre-lunch selloff, it always seems to recover.

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  24. And they are doing so to try to co-opt, to attempt to purchase and own key high offices in total defiance of any TRADITIONAL interpretation of democracy, not the phony Supreme Court of schlemiels one that said that

    money = free speech, and is therefore unlimited and anonymous if desired.

    Hogwash. Thes guys would have been right at home in Munich in the 1920's; Roberts, Alito Thomas and all them guys.

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  25. Hairy men in tights never were my thing. ;)

    The only factor I can imagine that might move housing would be foreign investment.

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  26. Paulson - So does he advise going long gold at the front counter while he's simultaneously unloading at the warehouse dock?

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  27. CHNG - Hmm, interesting. I'll check it out. Have you seen NEP lately as well?

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  28. Re: VXX @ 17.14
    Submitted by goldbug58 (121 comments) on Mon, 10/04/2010 - 11:04 #70669 (in reply to #70665)
    hope you see VXX in 20s on that bet soon.

    reply Contact the author Bookmark this Ignore thread Ignore user
    Re: VXX @ 17.14
    Submitted by 2nd_ave (4679 comments) on Mon, 10/04/2010 - 11:07 #70670 (in reply to #70669)
    I won't be holding that long- but if we do see 20 by the end of this week don't forget to hit the kill switch...

    Re: VXX @ 17.14
    Submitted by Bull Hunter (1397 comments) on Mon, 10/04/2010 - 11:09 #70672 (in reply to #70670)
    I'm holding for the 80-90 range.

    "Let The Games Begin!"

    Re: VXX @ 17.14 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4679 comments) on Mon, 10/04/2010 - 11:18 #70676 (in reply to #70672)
    When dip buyers start to get screwdoodled (as our friend shark used to say), and prices drop to the point where mid-September buyers lose conviction, then the selling should begin in earnest.

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  29. GMO - Wonder why they even bothered to bid GMO to nearly $3.70 last week just to sell it off this week?

    Crazy stupid chit if you ask me...

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  30. REDF is challenging conviction here.

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  31. Man, seems like that was a pretty hard selloff on anticipated news... What did they expect, miraculous recovery? What a crock of shat, must be selling for the sake of booking gains and hoping to reload lower?

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  32. Re: Selling TZA
    Submitted by jet8400 (51 comments) on Mon, 10/04/2010 - 11:33 #70680 (in reply to #70678)
    Perhaps I could make some more off it but not worth the risk. I'll take the quick 5%. I think we've just seen low of the day. POMO tomorrow. I'll be on the golf course. Thanks to TZA for the greens fees.

    Re: Selling TZA newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4683 comments) on Mon, 10/04/2010 - 11:44 #70683 (in reply to #70680)
    'I think we've just seen low of the day.'

    Maybe. I would have agreed with you last week. Today I'm less certain- leaning more towards dip buyers/latecomers bidding prices up here, only to be met with a ton of supply.

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  33. Ha, look at oil, somebody's got the right idea.

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  34. This is like playing tug of war in a male nudist colony.

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  35. Re: Selling TZA newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4684 comments) on Mon, 10/04/2010 - 11:59 #70686 (in reply to #70684)
    Sometimes you have to wonder if it's really as easy as waiting for the same patterns to recur over and over again- yet that's exactly what happens in every other interactive setting in life. As far as I know, people fall in love/break up and fight/make up today in the same pattern(s) that occurred 5 years/40 years/200 years/10,000 years ago...

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  36. Holy shit- in the time it took to write the above post the DJIA gapped down to -105...

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  37. Consumer Bankruptcy Filings Up 11%
    Submitted by Bull Hunter (1399 comments) on Mon, 10/04/2010 - 11:56 #70685
    http://tinyurl.com/25ag7nz

    ------

    "Make no mistake : we are headed in the right direction" - Barack Obama

    Re: Consumer Bankruptcy Filings Up 11% newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4685 comments) on Mon, 10/04/2010 - 12:07 #70687 (in reply to #70685)
    BH- That quote was taken out of context- I think he was speaking at an NACBA convention in Detroit.

    http://www.nacba.org/

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  38. This is a joke, the market pricing mechanism has been destroyed.

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  39. I definitely hope the nudist colony comment was a joke ;)

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  40. Yes, shark,

    Its a real wonder that its been working, all things considered, but it has, nonetheless, even with my inability to time the sells reasonably.

    Someday it will improve, and until then the gains will be small, I guess. I just keep trying to do a little better at it after each goof.

    You'd literally cry if you saw what I sold for a $120 gain this am. I would too, but at least I MADE money, as opposed to losing it. In time, I'll get better at it...

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  41. So how was Obama's comment taken out of context, was he delivering bad or good news to the blood-sucking bankruptcy attorneys?

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  42. I've been anticipating the day when this flag would be waved again:

    "Wall Street sees world economy decoupling from U.S.

    "Wall Street economists are reviving a bet that the global economy will withstand the U.S. slowdown.

    Just three years since America began dragging the world into its deepest recession in seven decades, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Credit Suisse Holdings USA Inc. and BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research are forecasting that this time will be different. Goldman Sachs predicts worldwide growth will slow 0.2 percentage point to 4.6 percent in 2011, even as expansion in the U.S. falls to 1.8 percent from 2.6 percent."

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  43. e5,

    I tried that multiple ema thing you suggested. A problem I have is that I'm buying well before it crosses, or even turns up, many times.

    I ended up writing a script program for ameritrade/thinkorswim to track it, with buy/sell arrows on the crossover, and configurable for avg type, lengths, and colors, if you'd like a copy.

    One thing I'd say is if I could just hang on till it gets into a trend, I would like to try to hang on and use a bracket order to put a stop in (which is only on TOS's server), and keep moving it up. This would force me to reduce position size, but might end up more profitable. I hate papertrading, so here I am, just like shark ridiculed me, testing with $100k at a time, LOL. Anyway, its showing some promiuse if I could just get myself to put in stops and raise them till the market takes me out.

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  44. I upgraded my TOS machine over the weekend. Slowness costs me money as I see it. So I got a Velociraptor drive, boosted the memory to max at 8 gb of high speed stuff, and put in 3 super fast dual screen gaming video cards. One was DOA, so I ended up with 2 super fast cards and one not quite as fast driving the 6 22" LCD's. I loaded the new drive with Win 7 64 bit, which can see the additional 4 gb. I kept the overclocked 4.15 ghz Core 2 Duo still in it, since I found TOS doesn't utilize more than 2 cpu's anyway. Then this morning I rearranged so that I have 2 charts per screen of 2 things I typically don't trade at same time, and added a 7th screen for text, chat, cnbc, and position/day/year summary p/l monitoring. It slowed me down changing things this am, but at least its all working.

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  45. hey sharkie,

    bill is out of town and You are the off topic subject of the day over there

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  46. Hey VB that's funny.

    What a bearish day we're having here. Is this about the terrorist stuff in Europe?

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  47. Learned how to enter a trailing stop order today...

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  48. Where did Bill go anyway? Are they giving away free drinks in another town?

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  49. Well, that doesn't work well, LOL. Trailing stop took 2 of what would have been $150 or $200 gainers, and turned both into losers for me.

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  50. If at first you don't succeed, try, try again.

    Made back the losses and $400 more this time

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  51. Jeez...Looking at all the stuff I normally do, I'd expect the SPX to be down 20 at least.

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  52. Doesn't seem the market's in much of a buying mood, this could easily outlast my patience this time around.

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  53. rebound coming? i ain't buying that this sells off right here. i think we eventually bust through 1,150.

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  54. Yikes....If I held all of my longs, I'd be down about 10K right now.

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  55. I'll take a shot @ AXP if it gets to the 365ma....37ish.

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  56. I returned this weekend to reading the classic trading book by Alexander Elder "Come into my trading room," and the idea that stuck into my mind from the new pages I read was that there are ALWAYS plenty of stops placed at the obvious support levels in the market (such as yesterday's low), and the market makers REGULARLY try to swing the market so as to hit those stops and then reverse.

    Looking at the 5-day intraday chart of IWM and SPY, I see that there were two obvious places for setting stops at EOD on Friday: the low on Friday and the spike low on Thursday. If the latter is taken out, then the up move would definitely be finished, right? Well, the indices just took out both of those lows in one swift move this morning and then turned back up.

    So I am holding off on shorting this market, since its price movement is fully consistent so far with just a shakeout before moving still higher. Let's see what happens tomorrow.

    One thing did happen for me today: I was stopped out at $0.72 for the 5000 shares of ESLR I purchased last week at $0.66, for a $300 gain.

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  57. Focus on job skills? As if the Chinese children that assemble all the crap we've been buying are highly skilled. More like the low wages and corporate incentives offered in the developing world.

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  58. Crammer recommended buying AXP when it was a dollar higher a few minutes ago.

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  59. If oil couldn't go down on a day like today, then I think its bottoming process (between late May and late September) and then a recent rally off that bottom are for real. So I just bought a couple of November $35 calls on USO at $1.73 each.

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  60. As for REDF, I decided to lower my buy to cover stop order to $5.2 (for the 1000 shares I shorted at $5.44), so as to make sure that I walk out of this trade with at least some profit.

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  61. Great trade David. I took a look at it, but no shares were available. To get them, it would have to be a $30K trade.

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  62. CLNE is in real trouble here.

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  63. WATG is testing the will of the longs. I suspect this is one of the last shakeouts before it continues its longer term trend higher. By longer term, I'm referring to the rebound from the Feb 09 lows. I don't really see much downside for this company.

    FD:
    no position yet.

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  64. CLNE on the weekly chart looks like it's just retracing some of its gains. for a longer term investor this probably would be a good spot to pick it up, just by looking at the charts. I don't know anything about the company. NLS looks like a similar weekly chart except its further along on its retracement.

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  65. if you look at the weekly chart on RAS you can see a clear set of higher lows and higher highs since March 2009.

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  66. WATG - I agree, a nice upward trading channel has formed. Here's a case for cars in China:

    "Currently, China has 7,000-km of high-speed railway lines, the most of its kind in the world.

    However, despite its speed dwarfing that of any other train in China, the high-speed train linking Shanghai and Hangzhou is not that appealing to passengers due to possible expensive tickets and the long journey time for non-direct trains.

    A first-class ticket is estimated to cost more than 100 yuan ($14.90), which doubles the existing fare, local Shanghai media Jiefang Daily has reported.

    "I'd rather drive to Hangzhou," said Zhong Cheng, a salesman who travels twice a week between Shanghai and Hangzhou.

    Zhong said driving to Hangzhou takes about two hours, but traveling by high-speed train could be more expensive and takes a longer time if the train stops at every stop on the route.

    Nine stations are along the route, seven of which are newly constructed in suburban districts of Shanghai and some cities of Zhejiang. "

    http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2010-09/29/content_11364901.htm

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  67. Agreed on RAS....Still looking for an 'easy' entry.

    CLNE looks like it will test the 11.30 area.

    Thinking of buying 10K shares of C and not trade it for 2 years.

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  68. ADBE- Isn't the whole flash fuss they have with AAPL trouble? Me thinks.

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  69. WATG - Not to mention of course that WATG shouldn't feel compelled to limit themselves to manufacturing only automobile related products like American auto manufactures have.

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  70. 2nd- Let me know when INTC hit's a new 52 YEAR low and I'll hop back in ;)

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  71. Up about $510, now, after 2 more trades. Not really a good day, but considering I spent a lot of the time and trades testing and tuning, I guess it was better than losing money.

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  72. Also, I never had more than $70k in the market all day, and the biggest drawdown was sub $500, so that's not too bad.

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  73. ADBE - What do they have aside from a cumbersome/handicapped reader and a captive audience who can't figure out how to uninstall/circumvent their "free" software?

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  74. Imbalances...

    BUY- SD/V/C/WFC/BAC

    SELL- APC/JPM

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  75. cp,

    on job skills game, I 200% agree. You could train the kids for anything you wanted and they couldn't find a decent job to save their souls, no matter how long or hard they try. My daughter has that problem. Job market was bad 2 yrs ago, so she got a scholarship to pay most of a masters degree, and she has been working at museums, and even got promoted to supervisor at one recently (but still not a lot of money), but still can't find a decent full time job, even after graduating magna cum laude. Oh well, now she got a 3 month internship at the Smithsonian. Maybe that will look good enough on the resume that someone will take advantage of her skills (and take pity on her) and hire her.

    OB and the boys are just totally full of lies. Like more, better training would help, LOL. No, you dumbass politician, you need to stop the Chinese from shipping crap here in exchange for paper promises and our jobs.

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  76. Just saw RAS has a sell imbalance. I might get my "easy" entry soon.

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  77. On a second thought about REDF, I decided to lower my buy to cover stop to $5.1, since the spike up this morning stopped at $5.09. Now, even if I get stopped out, I'll have a decent $340 profit on this trade.

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  78. Re: VXX @ 17.14/ Closed 17.43 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4688 comments) on Mon, 10/04/2010 - 16:00 #70720 (in reply to #70665)
    BH- I turned in my lottery ticket for the $2 payoff, and will repurchase two more later in the week ;)

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  79. Re: VXX @ 17.14/ Closed 17.43 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4689 comments) on Mon, 10/04/2010 - 16:02 #70721 (in reply to #70720)
    And less than 30 seconds after I closed out the position, the ask dropped to 17.37? Surreal.

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  80. Job skills - Wen I was working in the semiconductor industry for Tokyo Electron they were concerned about wages more than anything else. When I rejected candidates for my team based upon lack of experience, they told me not to worry, they'd ship them off for training.

    Well, I started off with a crew of "90 day wonders" and got the crap beat out of me for two years straight, especially on night shift issues. Tokyo Electron didn't care, they won their contract and had me (someone besides themselves) for the customer to blame.

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  81. David - I don't want to influence your thoughts, but in my mind you're crazy holding on to a short on REDF right now. The stock is now down 25% from its highs a few days ago. Over time I think it continues to trend higher...obviously it could drop to the $3.5ish level but I wouldn't be surprised to see a double digit price at some point over the next year.

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  82. TOF, I also wouldn't be surprised to see REDF in double digits some time over the next year. But before it gets there, it has to shake out all the weak buyers who jumped into it above $5. A drop to $4 would accomplish that.

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  83. I think it could hit $4 as well. Where it hits it will most likely bounce off of it, creating optimism for the weak longs and then it will most likely base at that bounce point for a little while (1-2 months) so as to get weak longs and some stronger longs off before trending higher. This is all assuming that it continues in it's uptrend. That is how I have seen momentum stocks trade in the past.

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  84. bob, you re on the right track! imo it is a fast game of arbitrage. guys w/ zillions$$ work on >.05%shavings the problems as you declare them may not be doable. you consistently,make money. i just have to wake up by 8:30 [big time insomnia] and continue a very recent change toward a better subnormal blood count [collectively healthy feel better.] yesterday i had help and was able to change color patterns @ think or swim; i'm color blind.reading chart lines at times is most difficult, i also fiddled w/adjusting tracking oscillators to follow through my suggestion.
    i am most happy for you, willingness to share. findings well as search terms seems to be new awa becoming. 4 weeks ago i was considering disposition of my cremated remains. dumped in the wind on top of mt washington[nh] or at sea on george's bank or closer into the gulf stream. now i have the feeling that in 3 weeks i'll be making considered directional 30k vst plays; in your shadow. re your notes above i need to re read, however your first comments in re paper trading directed at seeing or learning about past misconceptions might be enlightening to all of us. i am most interested in your view of decision making what merit placements most fit into t/following tracks....time sequence ie 1>5 min spreads
    vol, momentum, channel.candle tails & etc to forcast tops and bottoms. guesses don't count!
    entrance and exit set ups are more than pretend,
    the heavy hitters here@tt taste them; wake up @ night humming to their rythim and patterns. your style misses the down beat, but you do got rythim

    bc always promoted the idea that proof of trend turn came after someone else set the trend. ie, so you lose the 5% turn and profit the 90% middle: have you tested that approach?
    e5

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  85. SELL 369mm vs. BUY 284mm (1.29:1 to Sell)



    Sector
    Net Dollar Imbalance

    Basic Materials
    -$15,918,568

    Communications
    -$7,948,654

    Consumer, Cyclical
    -$20,618,369

    Consumer, Non-cyclical
    -$76,582,134

    Energy
    $21,461,643

    Financial
    $7,908,387

    Industrial
    $12,723,589

    Technology
    -$15,542,168

    Utilities
    $10,107,621

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  86. e5,

    I know this will sound silly, but if I don't catch the bottom, I have a real hard time pulling the buy trigger. It comes from being squeaky frugal, and it must have been bred into me, because so are most of my siblings. Its all I can muster just to take a risk and buy something, anything, unless its just so stupidly cheap, that its an absolute no brainer.

    A very high percentage of the time I get a bounce, but so many times they don't last, so my brain is deaf/dumb and blind to actual real reversals and new trends in the direction of my buys, I think. I am trying very hard to figure a way to see the difference. I watch things zoom immediately after they collect my shares. I watch every trade on every issue I trade, so it is very painful, and of course I can't bring myself to click buy again once they start going up.

    I'm sorry to hear you have had health troubles, but glad to hear you plan to be around a while. You'd need to let me know an email address if you want the code I cobbled together based on your suggestion. I've been playing mostly 1 min charts, so I can't tell a forest from the trees. All I see is trees.

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  87. Actually, its more like all I see is leaves coming at me.

    I'm not complaining. If I put the money into CD's or whatever, I'd only make $20,000 or $30,000 at best per year from it. I don't expect to get a lot richer doing what I've been doing, but on average, I'm easily beating my $500 a day goal.

    Eventually I'll get better at knowing when to sell...

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  88. cheapy, are you single?

    lol

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  89. vb,

    He is cheapy not so cheap. Spends a lot on computer hardware. May still drive his 60's or 70's muscle car. LOL.

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  90. yes, I've seen his computer set up. Very impressive!

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  91. Imagine piloting a 74 AMC Matador with a big block and no power brakes, and no power steering in a 10 hr enduro race! LOL, the motor only lasted 3 laps into the race, but I did get a chance to drive it in practice/qualifying for a bit. It truly was an experience to drive it on a racetrack.

    vb, lol, thanks so much for the compliment, but don't let the glitter steer your life. Its nice to be lucky, but I could be happy on a lot less. Happy counts a lot more...

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  92. Yeah, I seem to have peaked out at 18 screens. But honestly, it wasn't expensive. About $5500, now including a spare tower, etc, etc, etc. Look at it as a capital investment that pays for itself again each week or two.

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  93. The Matador on race day, lined up for the start!

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  94. CB- Don't make hasty decisions. I've met VB before and she's very charming and quite attractive :)....

    2nd- Just got home. Do we need one of my famous comment cleaners?

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  95. bob, while i'm getting my charting act together, i suggest you start browsing.get familiar with arbitrage principals and trading, they have all kinds of programs to pick out mkt imbalances and relatively risk free trades. you would be willing to take longer risk if you could understand what risk to reward ratio means and how to apply it. none of this means i do either. i do know i can think outside of the box.
    a great place fo r high speed overview is wikipedia; a great different associative search can be found at clusty.com. type in a topic, name and your off toward a deeper search. you've got a good sticht that the big boys don't want, to fast with only minor profit and possible blindsided risk.especially w/etf's. takes real $ to manipulate.
    ebblabatyahoodotcom
    e5

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  96. Awwww, that pic is soooo small! Here is another of it...

    http://www.maddmattsauto.com/Images/newsmc29.gif

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  97. All right guys, fess up. Do any of you have a clue what CB and e5 are talking about? I don't.

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  98. e5,

    I would think that to arb you need a system fast as lightning, connected fast as lightning, and enough capital to buy all the things in the index. Or you could arb stocks vs their options, but the complexity makes my head spin! I've only made money on options a few times in my life. I always get killed either by the slippage entering and exiting, lack of liquidity, or time decay, it seems.

    I'm so much better at playing my little niches, and going from one liquid issue to another when it seems they catch on to my presence, or swing trading/investing if/when things get silly at one end of the spectrum or another.

    I'm not comfortable betting on things I don't really understand. I'd rather take many small cookie crumbs off the table that nobody notices or cares about.

    Anyway, I'm a simple thinking guy. If I can make $5,000 a week, I'm great with that, and even $2,500 would be fine because I don't spend even half that, anyway.

    I guess I'm just looking for THE HOLY GRAIL, a system that ALWAYS WINS, just like everyone else. The good thing about me is that I'm happy to settle for less :)

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  99. i aint talking,it is a govt job for the time being. i spelt schtick wrong. mr shark knose all about them.
    e5

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  100. markw
    please put my email on your tt list.
    ebblab[at]yahoo[dot]com
    tia
    e5

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  101. Mark, e5 is talking about a "magic money machine" that essentially prints money by placing bets that have a high degree of probability to win, by offsetting bets on two things at the same time. Its called "arbitrage".

    For example, I might buy a convertible bond, and short the stock to protect the value of the bond in case the company goes under. If the company doesn't go under I get the interest, and when the bond converts to stock, I use it to cover the short. If the company goes under, the short covers the loss on the bond.

    Anyway, its pretty tricky if you ask me. I prefer simple buy low, sell higher.

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  102. HNUZF will start rolling over to December futures at the end of this week, and they are *already* at $4.04. How much more can they drop? It seems absurd to have December futures below $4, since any spell of cold weather in December will rocket NG much higher. So I am placing a buy limit order for 500 shares of HNUZF at $3.25 and for 1000 shares at $3.

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  103. David Rosenberg mentioned this morning that the size of the net speculative long position on gold right now is among the 3 largest sizes EVER observed. At the same time, $USD is greatly oversold and is due for a rebound rally. So I just placed a sell stop limit order under all of my CEF at $16.50/$16.48.

    Also, I placed a buy stop limit order for 500 shares of TWM at $18/$18.05

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  104. Another Meredith Whitney interview coming up on cnbc @ 8:40am...

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  105. TK has to be wishing he took 2010 off.

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  106. Bear Season newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4690 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 09:15 #70757
    Bears probably wish they'd taken the entire year off. A 100 point shake-out followed by an 80 point gap up- that has to be the one move almost no one expected, and therefore another win for the Market.

    No skin the game right now, and I'll have to wait for a reason to trade either way.

    Congratulations again to jet, who closed TZA @ 26.90 yesterday for a +5% gain- a gain which would have disappeared overnight.

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  107. What a difference a day makes!

    BOJ, our ally in the currency war with China, has shaved interest rates slightly to zero, basically.

    The U.S. is issuing record amounts of debt at miniscule rates also, even as we stand aside and allow our dollar to fall also. We seem to be saying to the Chinese "We will pay you back the debt, but we're not paying any interest and we are paying in wildly inflated dollars.

    With the worlds greatest military by far, there is essentially nothing the Chinese can do.

    But for the FED, talk about painting yourself into a corner!

    Realize folks, the way the economic realities in Washington literally take off the table een the possilibity of entertaining the Tea Party's firmer money stance. It's just impossible. And also undersirable, from a Washington planner's perspective for reasons that should be obvious.

    I watched the Linda McMahon/Dick BLumenthal debate and was surprised, pleasantly, when I realized that Dick was SHELLACKING Linda McMahon.

    It literally wasn't even freaking fair, his command of the issues and of the mechanisms of government and even business were extraordinary in comparison to hers, with her southern drawl, her turkey neck, and her calls for tort reform.

    Tort reform is SO 1991 isn't it? Besides...do yu have any idea how hard it is to actually sue doctors who kill you? In my state about 200 such cases are brought each year, the legal hurdles are so high just getting into court against a doc.

    I question the sticking power of todays enthusiasm, as yesterdays selloff seemed like the start of a 3-5 day correction.

    But what the hell do I know? Don't fight the fed, right, even if they have sushi each day for lunch:)

    One word of advice....

    Don't order the miso horny soup:)

    sorry couldn't resist.

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  108. Why doesn't tk just go with trends until they stop? Stubborness = losing $

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  109. IMPORTANT!!....NEW HIGHLY INFORMATIVE POST.

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  110. Landry-

    Random Thoughts:

    The indices got hit fairly hard on Monday but they didn't come unglued.

    The good news is that the sector action remains constructive.
    Many remain in uptrends. Of those, most only had a pullback based on Monday's action.

    This action sets up quite a few setups in areas such as Internet, Foreign Stocks (especially technology and Internet), Computer Hardware, and Selected Metals.

    As I told my service peeps last night, I think it's time to "stick a toe in."

    However, MAKE SURE you wait for entries. That in and of itself might keep you out of trouble.

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  111. REDF getting pumped- take a little off the table?

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  112. Cheepy, you might want to rent a copy of the movie Just Visiting, I recommend this movie not only for it's content but it also features a Matador like yours.

    The AMC Matador had the best looking sheetmetal of the AMC lineup, the Pacer and Gremlin are the other two that come to mind.

    http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/1974-AMC-MATADOR-COUPE-ORIGINAL-VINTAGE-AD-/370216960861?pt=Motors_Manuals_Literature&hash=item5632a6835d

    Here's an example of one of my "muscle" cars from the same era, although this one shows an incorrect hood that wasn't available on this particular option package:

    http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/1973-Mustang-Convertible-351-FX-trans-rebuilt-EC-/300472379786?pt=US_Cars_Trucks&hash=item45f58ca98a

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  113. Re: Bear Season
    Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1478 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 10:10 #70764 (in reply to #70757)
    "that has to be the one move almost no one expected"

    Hate to sound smug, but I'll have to chalk myself up in "almost" category:

    [15:35] {Threei} It's so exceedingly obvious that we must drop from here
    [15:36] {Threei} that I strongly suspect it won't happen
    [15:36] {Threei} I mean it will but not before we make one more murderous run-up
    [15:37] {Threei} my working assumption:
    [15:37] {Threei} any retreat we have during this or next week is a trap,
    [15:37] {Threei} shorts get lured in for slaughter
    [15:37] {Threei} then sharp rally will eliminate them, and only then we will drop

    http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2010/09/sep-30...

    reply Contact the author Bookmark this Ignore thread Ignore user
    Re: Bear Season newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4691 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 10:25 #70765 (in reply to #70764)
    Vad- Well, let me play the role of CNBC talking head here-

    'It's the third year of the Presidential cycle, November is coming up, and today we're probably looking at the start of a 20-30% move up into 2011. Vad, you called this move yesterday. We can't really broadcast the kind of sadistic reasoning you have behind your call, but we know you're just joking- it's the Presidential Play here, right?'

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  114. What, ~30 days until mid-term elections, right?

    "that has to be the one move almost no one expected"

    It's precisely the move I'm anticipating but it's not the one I'm playing, it just happens to have a similar vector.

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  115. CSCO @ 21.80 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4692 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 10:29 #70768
    It seemed to show relative strength during yesterday's sell-off, and I like the pricing here. Or maybe it's my first play of the third year of the Presidential cycle...

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  116. Adding XLF @ 14.55 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4693 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 10:39 #70771
    Why? I just think the banks will be joining in the 'murderous run-up.'

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  117. GMO - Will they take it back to $3.64 during today's session?

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  118. Spiking the punch with BAC @ 13.29 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4694 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 10:46 #70773
    If I'm drinking the Koolaid, it may as well be spiked.

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  119. I think copper has a fair chance of reaching $3.90 before the day of our traditional turkey feast.

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  120. INTC Vintage 1921 (19.21) newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4695 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 10:52 #70775
    If they pull me over for a DUI, it's going to be for the good stuff.

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  121. Man, either shorts received some serious hydrazine burns this morning or the early action has a lot to do with covering.

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  122. A Ton of Supply this morning newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4696 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 10:55 #70776
    I noticed large volume figures on the asks over the last 30 minutes. Question is, was that the smart money?

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  123. "Question is, was that the smart money?"

    Only if the smart money happens to think government isn't going to flood markets with currency in order to stave off depression.

    It might just work if they can get everyone on board.

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  124. Move over to the new post boys....

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