Welcome to the currency war with China. The gloves are off and it's take no prisoners.
The west will weaken all fiat currencies which is a decisive policy shift in Washington.
It will be GREAT for stocks, commodities, metals, oil and grains.
The only thing I don't get is, what was yesterdays selloff all about?
Is the terrorism thing solved and no one bothered to tell us? It sounded like they had it nailed down to a threat to 5 euro airports, so that you can defend against.
Bear Season Submitted by 2nd_ave (4696 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 09:19 #70757 Bears probably wish they'd taken the entire year off. A 100 point shake-out followed by an 80 point gap up- that has to be the one move almost no one expected, and therefore another win for the Market.
No skin the game right now, and I'll have to wait for a reason to trade either way.
Congratulations again to jet, who closed TZA @ 26.90 yesterday for a +5% gain- a gain which would have otherwise entirely vanished overnight.
Re: Bear Season Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1479 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 10:10 #70764 (in reply to #70757) "that has to be the one move almost no one expected"
Hate to sound smug, but I'll have to chalk myself up in "almost" category:
[15:35] {Threei} It's so exceedingly obvious that we must drop from here [15:36] {Threei} that I strongly suspect it won't happen [15:36] {Threei} I mean it will but not before we make one more murderous run-up [15:37] {Threei} my working assumption: [15:37] {Threei} any retreat we have during this or next week is a trap, [15:37] {Threei} shorts get lured in for slaughter [15:37] {Threei} then sharp rally will eliminate them, and only then we will drop
reply Contact the author Bookmark this Ignore thread Ignore user Re: Bear Season Submitted by 2nd_ave (4696 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 10:25 #70765 (in reply to #70764) Vad- Well, let me play the role of CNBC talking head here-
'It's the third year of the Presidential cycle, November is coming up, and today we're probably looking at the start of a 20-30% move up into 2011. Vad, you called this move yesterday. We can't really broadcast the kind of sadistic reasoning you have behind your call, but we know you're just joking- it's the Presidential Play here, right?'
CSCO @ 21.80 Submitted by 2nd_ave (4696 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 10:29 #70768 It seemed to show relative strength during yesterday's sell-off, and I like the pricing here. Or maybe it's my first play of the third year of the Presidential cycle...
Adding XLF @ 14.55 Submitted by 2nd_ave (4696 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 10:39 #70771 Why? I just think the banks will be joining in the 'murderous run-up.'
Spiking the punch with BAC @ 13.29 Submitted by 2nd_ave (4696 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 10:46 #70773 If I'm drinking the Koolaid, it may as well be spiked.
INTC Vintage 1921 (19.21) Submitted by 2nd_ave (4696 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 10:52 #70775 If they pull me over for a DUI, it's going to be for the good stuff.
edit reply Bookmark this Ignore thread A Ton of Supply this morning Submitted by 2nd_ave (4696 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 10:55 #70776 I noticed large volume figures on the asks over the last 30 minutes. Question is, was that the smart money?
IMMR continues to look strong. Love the strength in that stock even though I'm not in it. Alternatively, I can't complain about my BYD...i'm waiting for the damn buyout. I've never owned a stock for a potential buyout but this one just makes so much sense. MGM is being forced to sell 50% of the Borgata and LVS has right of 1st refusal on the property, which happens to generate a cool $70 to $100 Million in profits when the economy is shitty. When it's not, I would imagine its probably double that. If I were a bigger player looking for growth in the casino industry, the Borgata is a no brainer.
Re: Spiking the punch with BAC @ 13.29/ Closed @ 13.50 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4700 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 12:57 #70789 (in reply to #70773) ...
LY - she was comparing the last few years with the 1930's period. Looked like there was a 32 bottom & 37 peak. Although she said the current rebound was like 39 rally. Said the 11205 lvl (Apr 10) was key to recover. If I heard correctly, we've been in a Bear mkt since 2000. She liked the US Trade Weighted Broad Dollar Indx. But if you go to stockcharts and look at $USD over past 15 years, then it's roughly the same.
Wow, that was one big shakeout yesterday! I am glad that I read Elder's book over the weekend, which reminded me of the fact that stops in all obvious places (such as previous day's low) WILL REGULARLY get hit, and so I held off shorting the market yesterday. Of course, it helped seeing oil stay flat, which suggested that the sell-off was a fake action constrained to stocks.
I am staggering the sell limits on the November $35 USO calls I picked up yesterday (for $1.73): placing one at $3.50 (so as to be at least flat on that trade) and one at $5 (so as to make some decent gain :)).
Similarly, I am staggering the sell limits on the November $75 V calls I picked up a couple of weeks ago (for $1.72): placing one at $3.50 (so as to be at least flat on that trade) and one at $5 (so as to make some decent gain :)).
Thanks to these calls and some GLD I have, my OptionsHouse account in which I am holding all my protective puts on FCX, IWM and SPY (to hedge my long exposure to the market) is green today!
As for ESLR, I did keep posting my strategy of moving up my stop, and the highest level to which I got it moved was $0.72, which was hit yesterday (as I posted it yesterday). So I did make some profit on the 5000 shares of ESLR I bought at $0.66.
As for REDF, oh well -- it didn't drop straight to low $4's, as I thought it would. Instead, it stopped me out today at $5.12 from the 1000 shares I shorted at $5.44, for a $300 gain.
Well, this weekend I finished with a friend my bottle of Nadurra, and these $300 should nicely cover a new bottle now. :)
Good call on ANO, shark! It is up 10% today already! What makes you still optimistic about NANO *from this point*? At which point would you start taking profits if your were long now since yesterday?
David - I think REDF could be a good short yet again. I was expecting a 10 to 15% bounce before further losses. I see that SIFY is slipping and expect REDF to do the same. After the next drop (if it does), it should languish at that level for a little while and it will be a good buy again.
That is funny about Hailey vs the boys. Looks like one of them is pushing her in the back and another has grabbed her under an armpit in an attempt to slow her down. Her team mate looks on in amazement.
Re: INTC Vintage 1921 (19.21)/ Closed @ 19.14 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4701 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 14:05 #70808 (in reply to #70775) Good example of why it pays to diversify...
illini- Yeah, it's really funny to watch. It happens again and again. Props to my 9 year old, Kendra. She was asked to play in a game last night with her clubs 11 year old girls. She got pushed around a lot, but when she had some space, no one could catch her or steal the ball.
I honestly never thought I would have so much fun watching these little kids play!
David - Study the movements in January 2003 for REDF. This move is pretty much identical to that one and it's one that I have been using as a litmus. If it follows the script it will close marginally higher today, then have a marginally lower day followed by a gap lower.
David - are you in WATG? Man they are f'ing around with that stock today. I'm not long yet but I'm definitely watching it. Daytraders could make a killing on this stock.
TOF, I have a small position in WATG stock (750 shares) and a twice larger short position in WATG November $7.50 puts (short 15 contracts), which I sold for $0.5 and then $0.55. I am fine with this arrangement -- I fully expect those puts to expire and give me a profit of $750 by November. If, by some fluke, the puts are assigned to me, then I am fine with buying more WATG at the cost basis of $7.
I think the employment numbers on Fri might actually be better.
A friend that works in a print shop told me he hasn't seen it this busy in years, and he is needing to work full days instead of being sent home early every day. He has taken 30% in pay cuts and was forced to declare bankruptcy, already, so its nice to see anything improving for him and his family.
On the trading side it was a bad day for me. I didn't exit at my stop on TZA and got creamed. Sold out at $25.12 or so with a big loss. So much for my winnings the past week.
The straight line ascent in gold and silver over the past month is making me nervous, especially in the light of David Rosenberg's observation about speculative net long positions in gold being near an all time high. The $USD also looks greatly oversold. So I have moved up my sell stop on CEF to $17. If the metals complex goes up tomorrow once again, I'll buy more puts on FCX.
I'm not sure why but I always like looking back to see what people said right before big moves in the market. So I've been reading commentary from a month ago. Here is one I came across that jived perfectly with what I was thinking back then:
Crap....PXP up 6.5% on news. I was .10 away from re-opening yesterday.
ReplyDeletebuy ANO now Anooraq
ReplyDeleteBuy 5000 shares...xcept for Bob. Bob, buy 10K shares baby!
V fighting like hell not to fall down the AXP rat hole.
ReplyDeleteAXP broke S1..S2 a buck lower.
ReplyDeleteSPX shoots through 1150 on ISM.
ReplyDeleteESLR:
ReplyDeleteJeeze. Sorry I said keep it David.
This one IS a dog with fleas:)!
woof woof!
Yikes.
Talk @ a skrewdoodler. Damn!
Boys at SOH are firing off the shorts...Even AAPL.
ReplyDeleteMotley fool has a negative story about ESLR...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fool.com/investing/high-growth/2010/10/04/is-evergreen-solar-a-sell.aspx
Got to be hitting SPY buy stops here soon. Ouch.
ReplyDeletegmorning boys!
ReplyDeletethe market feels like earthquake weather this am.
Hi vb.
ReplyDeleteWelcome to the currency war with China. The gloves are off and it's take no prisoners.
The west will weaken all fiat currencies which is a decisive policy shift in Washington.
It will be GREAT for stocks, commodities, metals, oil and grains.
The only thing I don't get is, what was yesterdays selloff all about?
Is the terrorism thing solved and no one bothered to tell us? It sounded like they had it nailed down to a threat to 5 euro airports, so that you can defend against.
How are you feeling this morning my dear?
Yesterday's selloff was all about shaking out lose hands before the move up?
ReplyDeleteEarthquake weather - Let's groove on the rubble!
ReplyDeleteHave fun guys. At the close.
ReplyDeletePresuming David's .66 cent breakeven stop in ESLR was triggered today.
ReplyDeleteSorry it happened man.
What a freaking solardog with fleas:)
Bear Season
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4696 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 09:19 #70757
Bears probably wish they'd taken the entire year off. A 100 point shake-out followed by an 80 point gap up- that has to be the one move almost no one expected, and therefore another win for the Market.
No skin the game right now, and I'll have to wait for a reason to trade either way.
Congratulations again to jet, who closed TZA @ 26.90 yesterday for a +5% gain- a gain which would have otherwise entirely vanished overnight.
Re: Bear Season
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by Vadym Graifer (1479 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 10:10 #70764 (in reply to #70757)
"that has to be the one move almost no one expected"
Hate to sound smug, but I'll have to chalk myself up in "almost" category:
[15:35] {Threei} It's so exceedingly obvious that we must drop from here
[15:36] {Threei} that I strongly suspect it won't happen
[15:36] {Threei} I mean it will but not before we make one more murderous run-up
[15:37] {Threei} my working assumption:
[15:37] {Threei} any retreat we have during this or next week is a trap,
[15:37] {Threei} shorts get lured in for slaughter
[15:37] {Threei} then sharp rally will eliminate them, and only then we will drop
http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2010/09/sep-30...
reply Contact the author Bookmark this Ignore thread Ignore user
Re: Bear Season
Submitted by 2nd_ave (4696 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 10:25 #70765 (in reply to #70764)
Vad- Well, let me play the role of CNBC talking head here-
'It's the third year of the Presidential cycle, November is coming up, and today we're probably looking at the start of a 20-30% move up into 2011. Vad, you called this move yesterday. We can't really broadcast the kind of sadistic reasoning you have behind your call, but we know you're just joking- it's the Presidential Play here, right?'
CSCO @ 21.80
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4696 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 10:29 #70768
It seemed to show relative strength during yesterday's sell-off, and I like the pricing here. Or maybe it's my first play of the third year of the Presidential cycle...
Adding XLF @ 14.55
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4696 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 10:39 #70771
Why? I just think the banks will be joining in the 'murderous run-up.'
Spiking the punch with BAC @ 13.29
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4696 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 10:46 #70773
If I'm drinking the Koolaid, it may as well be spiked.
INTC Vintage 1921 (19.21)
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4696 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 10:52 #70775
If they pull me over for a DUI, it's going to be for the good stuff.
edit reply Bookmark this Ignore thread
A Ton of Supply this morning
Submitted by 2nd_ave (4696 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 10:55 #70776
I noticed large volume figures on the asks over the last 30 minutes. Question is, was that the smart money?
Mark- Very prescient title to your morning post.
ReplyDeleteReaching for 11k newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4697 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 11:43 #70779
ReplyDeleteI think they take it up to DJIA 11000 and keep it there.
IMMR continues to look strong. Love the strength in that stock even though I'm not in it. Alternatively, I can't complain about my BYD...i'm waiting for the damn buyout. I've never owned a stock for a potential buyout but this one just makes so much sense. MGM is being forced to sell 50% of the Borgata and LVS has right of 1st refusal on the property, which happens to generate a cool $70 to $100 Million in profits when the economy is shitty. When it's not, I would imagine its probably double that. If I were a bigger player looking for growth in the casino industry, the Borgata is a no brainer.
ReplyDeleteCopper = Breakout:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical.html
Markets = breakout. 1,200 is probably coming.
They're having an interesting conversation with Louise Yamada on bloomberg...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/tv/
after break
Missed it. Only saw them say goodbye to her.
ReplyDeleteWhat did she say?
Re: CSCO @ 21.80/ Closed @ 22 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4698 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 12:51 #70786 (in reply to #70768)
ReplyDeleteRe: Adding XLF @ 14.55/Closed @ 14.70
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4700 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 12:56 #70787 (in reply to #70771)
Re: Spiking the punch with BAC @ 13.29/ Closed @ 13.50 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4700 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 12:57 #70789 (in reply to #70773)
ReplyDelete...
LY - she was comparing the last few years with the 1930's period. Looked like there was a 32 bottom & 37 peak. Although she said the current rebound was like 39 rally. Said the 11205 lvl (Apr 10) was key to recover. If I heard correctly, we've been in a Bear mkt since 2000. She liked the US Trade Weighted Broad Dollar Indx. But if you go to stockcharts and look at $USD over past 15 years, then it's roughly the same.
ReplyDeleteWow, that was one big shakeout yesterday! I am glad that I read Elder's book over the weekend, which reminded me of the fact that stops in all obvious places (such as previous day's low) WILL REGULARLY get hit, and so I held off shorting the market yesterday. Of course, it helped seeing oil stay flat, which suggested that the sell-off was a fake action constrained to stocks.
ReplyDeleteI am staggering the sell limits on the November $35 USO calls I picked up yesterday (for $1.73): placing one at $3.50 (so as to be at least flat on that trade) and one at $5 (so as to make some decent gain :)).
Similarly, I am staggering the sell limits on the November $75 V calls I picked up a couple of weeks ago (for $1.72): placing one at $3.50 (so as to be at least flat on that trade) and one at $5 (so as to make some decent gain :)).
Thanks to these calls and some GLD I have, my OptionsHouse account in which I am holding all my protective puts on FCX, IWM and SPY (to hedge my long exposure to the market) is green today!
As for ESLR, I did keep posting my strategy of moving up my stop, and the highest level to which I got it moved was $0.72, which was hit yesterday (as I posted it yesterday). So I did make some profit on the 5000 shares of ESLR I bought at $0.66.
ReplyDeleteAs for REDF, oh well -- it didn't drop straight to low $4's, as I thought it would. Instead, it stopped me out today at $5.12 from the 1000 shares I shorted at $5.44, for a $300 gain.
ReplyDeleteWell, this weekend I finished with a friend my bottle of Nadurra, and these $300 should nicely cover a new bottle now. :)
Mark: what was the important post that you referred to this morning?
ReplyDeleteEven UNG found the decency to stay flat on a happy day like today. :))
ReplyDeleteGood job David ESLR.
ReplyDeleteDiscipline baby......
Gently place some of that lucre into ANO which I think will do really well from here.
David- The one above with Hailey busting out! :) I'll tell you, that little girl just mows down the boys. Friggin funny as hell.
ReplyDeleteShark- What's the play in ANO?
ReplyDeleteGood call on ANO, shark! It is up 10% today already! What makes you still optimistic about NANO *from this point*? At which point would you start taking profits if your were long now since yesterday?
ReplyDeleteDavid - I think REDF could be a good short yet again. I was expecting a 10 to 15% bounce before further losses. I see that SIFY is slipping and expect REDF to do the same. After the next drop (if it does), it should languish at that level for a little while and it will be a good buy again.
ReplyDeletehi sharkie!
ReplyDeleteI am feeling GREAT today ! :) Packing for tahoe always puts me in a good mood!
ps got snake bite on redf but grooved on rubble yesterday. based on what i am reading we go up from here. gold is good
Mark,
ReplyDeleteThat is funny about Hailey vs the boys. Looks like one of them is pushing her in the back and another has grabbed her under an armpit in an attempt to slow her down. Her team mate looks on in amazement.
Re: INTC Vintage 1921 (19.21)/ Closed @ 19.14 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4701 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 14:05 #70808 (in reply to #70775)
ReplyDeleteGood example of why it pays to diversify...
illini- Yeah, it's really funny to watch. It happens again and again. Props to my 9 year old, Kendra. She was asked to play in a game last night with her clubs 11 year old girls. She got pushed around a lot, but when she had some space, no one could catch her or steal the ball.
ReplyDeleteI honestly never thought I would have so much fun watching these little kids play!
Man, I should have indeed re-shorted REDF today and placed a stop just above the daily high. It would have been such an easy trade...
ReplyDeleteDamn...I think their reaching for more lighter fuel.
ReplyDeleteDavid - Study the movements in January 2003 for REDF. This move is pretty much identical to that one and it's one that I have been using as a litmus. If it follows the script it will close marginally higher today, then have a marginally lower day followed by a gap lower.
ReplyDeleteLet's see if anyone blinks here.
ReplyDeleteNo blinky for the bulls....
ReplyDeleteImbalances...
BUY- GS/MS/C/BAC/WFC/IBM/HUN
SELL- AUY/GG
BUY- SLB/HUN
ReplyDeleteDavid - are you in WATG? Man they are f'ing around with that stock today. I'm not long yet but I'm definitely watching it. Daytraders could make a killing on this stock.
ReplyDelete$ES_F #futures #imbalance BUY 1.19 Bln vs. SELL 267mm (4.:1 to Buy)
ReplyDeletemissed all the action, modem/router died.
ReplyDeletehope everyone did well.
TOF, I have a small position in WATG stock (750 shares) and a twice larger short position in WATG November $7.50 puts (short 15 contracts), which I sold for $0.5 and then $0.55. I am fine with this arrangement -- I fully expect those puts to expire and give me a profit of $750 by November. If, by some fluke, the puts are assigned to me, then I am fine with buying more WATG at the cost basis of $7.
ReplyDeleteI think the employment numbers on Fri might actually be better.
ReplyDeleteA friend that works in a print shop told me he hasn't seen it this busy in years, and he is needing to work full days instead of being sent home early every day. He has taken 30% in pay cuts and was forced to declare bankruptcy, already, so its nice to see anything improving for him and his family.
On the trading side it was a bad day for me. I didn't exit at my stop on TZA and got creamed. Sold out at $25.12 or so with a big loss. So much for my winnings the past week.
ReplyDeleteShark Attack
ReplyDeletehttp://misstrade.wordpress.com/2010/10/05/best-shark-attack-ever/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+wordpress/MIJi+(Trading+for+the+Masses)
Taking an after-hours flyer on TZA newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4702 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 16:53 #70830
ReplyDeleteTwo allotments- 24.4x and 24.3x...
The straight line ascent in gold and silver over the past month is making me nervous, especially in the light of David Rosenberg's observation about speculative net long positions in gold being near an all time high. The $USD also looks greatly oversold. So I have moved up my sell stop on CEF to $17. If the metals complex goes up tomorrow once again, I'll buy more puts on FCX.
ReplyDeleteWhat the heck happened, I go away for a few hours and you guys buy up everything in sight?
ReplyDeleteGimme a break, Sheesh!
David - I wouldnt read too much into what David Rosenberg says for short term trades...heck even for longer term trades he has been pretty awful.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure why but I always like looking back to see what people said right before big moves in the market. So I've been reading commentary from a month ago. Here is one I came across that jived perfectly with what I was thinking back then:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/real-estate-cnbc-bull-market-bear/9/7/2010/id/29936
I looked closer at the $USD index chart:
ReplyDeletehttp://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&t=l&a=50&w=1&v=d6
and figured that if $USD rises above $78 this week then I'll open new shorts and/or buy puts on the market.
new post
ReplyDelete