Tuesday, October 5, 2010
10/5/10 REDF/SIFY: The Untouchables
What's 'working' in this market? The untouchables- as in 'I wouldn't touch that stock with a ten-foot pole.' Are these Indian internet companies about to move up in the caste system? Personally, I doubt it.
I know tof sees REDF in double digits. Alright, I might give that scenario 10-15% odds. But honestly, if you're holding REDF right now, you caught a big break today (IMHO)- I would use it to get out.
Open to other opinions, of course.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
2nd - Regarding REDF...I'm just using the 2003 rebound as a likely scenario. So far it has held true pretty much to a T. I still think it drops lower before finding a base. A gap lower wouldn't be out of the ordinary.
ReplyDeleteFD:
I have no position in the company right now.
I can't emphasize enough how many times I've seen these types of stocks take off, rocket higher, then fail to orbit and fall back to earth. Sure, once in awhile you get a winner. But the odds are not on your side.
ReplyDelete2nd - I hear ya on that. That's why I've never held ANYTHING for more than a year. I ALWAYS sell early, many times too early. The one that bugs me from time to time is BIDU. I bought that at $75 (pre split) and sold at $135. Bought again at $200 and sold at $250. Oh well.
ReplyDeleteOkay, so which way do we go tomorrow? It seems the currency war with China is escalating and the message is, developed countries want China to stop manipulating the Yuan.
ReplyDeleteIf they're really serious, which it seems they are, this could go on for some time?
BIDU - Didn't they have some help getting to where they are courtesy the Chinese government?
ReplyDeleteIt seems possible to me...
My portfolio only increased today by nearly 4%, not counting the loss of 0.84% on the cash position.
ReplyDeleteCP- Don't hate me, but I had a sell order today for CADC @ 3.74 that didn't hit. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
ReplyDeleteBTW...V had an imbalance BUY side today.
TOF- I'll hop back into BYD if it can break and hold the 50. Nice hold on your part.
The cold truth
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by DavidV (25 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 21:19 #70844
The consumer demand for discretionary durable goods purchased through the Internet is not looking very healthy recently:
http://www.consumerindexes.com/index.html
Previous history shows that all injections of government liquidity have only a temporary effect, and once that liquidity works its way through the system, no traces of it remain and we are back to the real economy as it was before the injections. In the view of the mounting government debts, I suspect the government liquidity injections won't last much longer. Hence, at some point in the not-so-distant future (say within a year and maybe much sooner) the market WILL have to stare at the cold truth, and then we'll have a major leg down in the stock market.
CADC - Mark, you've obligated yourself to sell the position at some point, correct?
ReplyDeleteI've been considering lightening up on my two longs as well, just don't want to do that too soon. At this juncture I'd rather do it on the way back down... Could be tomorrow?
CP- I know buddy, just wanted to be on the up and up.
ReplyDelete